History Repeats Itself (Westeros)

[The Real Targaryen]

As we all know, GRRM uses a lot of real world history and ideas in the stories. A major proponent of history is that history always repeats itself and I think that will happen in the next books. Spoilers...

At the beginning of the series I always thought that whatever happened in Westeros was inconsequential, Daenerys would come at the end reclaim the Iron Throne. First I believed it would be with Rhaego, the Stallion Who Mounts the World. Now, however, I realize she isn't the end game for Westeros. Aegon VI is.

First and foremost, I believe it's not a coincidence that both Aegon the Conqeror and (f)Aegon have the same name. Expanding on that, Aegon VI is actually the Targaryen son of Rhaegar and Elia. Varys is a man who would've had enough foresight to remove Aegon VI from King's Landing. Second, a little over 300 years before current events, Aegon the Conqueror spent years learning about all the lands and kingdoms of Westeros so that he could better conquer and become king. Aegon VI has similar learning, from Septa Lemore, Jon Connington, Rolly Duckfield, Haldon Halfmaester, and even a little from Tyrion. 300 years ago, Lannisters and Tyrells came together on the Field of Fire. Once again it seems the Lannisters and the Tyrells will be fighting together against the incoming Targaryen loyalists and will similarly be defeated despite the odds (although without dragons this time). There is a little boy Arryn who "rules" the Vale, just like before. I'm not sure how this will play out but it should be noted. There is a mad king in the Iron Islands again that will hopefully (fingers crossed) suffer an agonizing death. Aegon the Conqueror's half-brother took the Stormlands for himself and now Aegon VI's stepfather will take Storm's End. Petyr Baelish is the ruler of Harrenhal and the Riverlands and will most likely die from that curse, hopefully giving power back to the Tullys.

However, as much as history repeats itself, things do change. Dorne will join the side of Aegon VI rather than fight for independence. The Starks aren't in control of the North, but if they do get control back before Aegon VI comes marching North, they will be too weak to fight and will most likely bend the knee.

I think there are a lot of things I've missed but it seems like perfect writing, the realm is quite literally broken and nearly is as much separate kingdoms as when Aegon the Conqeror sailed from Dragonstone.

[Mladen]

Hi, welcome to the forum. May you enjoy here like the rest of us :cheers:

As for repeating history, I am more interested in Dance of dragons than new Aegon`s conquer. I certainly agree about Field of Fire, but there are a lot parallels that can be used. Fire Eater made splendid prediction based on just foreshadowing and history, and I have to agree with lots of it. I also think that history and stories haven`t been chosen lightely and that it can be used as parallels and way to predict the future. All in all, nice idea, but not the right direction.

[King of Winters]

Hi, welcome to the forum. May you enjoy here like the rest of us :cheers:

As for repeating history, I am more interested in Dance of dragons than new Aegon`s conquer. I certainly agree about Field of Fire, but there are a lot parallels that can be used. Fire Eater made splendid prediction based on just foreshadowing and history, and I have to agree with lots of it. I also think that history and stories haven`t been chosen lightely and that it can be used as parallels and way to predict the future. All in all, nice idea, but not the right direction.

Can you provide a link to Fire Eater's topic or if you can't sum it up.

Welcome to the Forums The Real Targaryen :cheers:

[Mladen]

Can you provide a link to Fire Eater's topic or if you can't sum it up.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85752-the-rundown-of-the-dance-of-dragons-20/

[King of Winters]

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85752-the-rundown-of-the-dance-of-dragons-20/

Thanks.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Welcome to the φorums! :cheers:

No. FAegon is a Blackfyre.

First and foremost, I believe it's not a coincidence that both Aegon the Conqeror and (f)Aegon have the same name.

since Rhaegar wanted to create the original 3 headed dragon it is not a coincidence (also we don’t know if Aegon is his real name)

Second, a little over 300 years before current events, Aegon the Conqueror spent years learning about all the lands and kingdoms of Westeros so that he could better conquer and become king. Aegon VI has similar learning, from Septa Lemore, Jon Connington, Rolly Duckfield, Haldon Halfmaester, and even a little from Tyrion.

Do we know about Aegon’s the Fisrt education?

300 years ago, Lannisters and Tyrells came together on the Field of Fire. Once again it seems the Lannisters and the Tyrells will be fighting together against the incoming Targaryen loyalists and will similarly be defeated despite the odds (although without dragons this time).

No they were the Gardeners not the Tyrells.

[The Real Targaryen]

Thanks for all the love. And for the correction that they were Gardeners, not Tyrells.

[giant snake]

No doubt Connington sees it that way and Aegon is taught to think that way. Whether he ends up on the Iron Throne - I think so, but I don't know for how long.

There are so many loose ends and if they tie themselves up without affecting the Iron Throne, I think people will be disappointed. I mean I like the stories adding scope to the world and all, but I almost wish that Victarion and Euron's rivalry (for one example) was its own story, seperate from Westeros and the rest of the plot.

With the Blackfyres: What am I supposed to read for this backstory?

[Fire Eater]

With the Blackfyres: What am I supposed to read for this backstory?

We are led to believe that the threat of the Blackfyres like the titular characters in whose story they are a present threat, Dunk and Egg, are a long dead threat in the main series like Smaug by the time of LOTR. Yet, it is the Blackfyres (Varys) that set in motion the events that led to Robert's Rebellion, and are still actively working to seize the IT.

OP, I think Aegon will die before Stannis and his army manages to get a chance to come into contact with Aegon. Aegon isn't who he says he is given that there was no foreshadowing leading up to him except regarding him as a fake. Dany won't ever let him sit the IT.

[mindchap]

The Aegon name is almost too common in Westeros to be taken as a link to anything. What I wonder is even if Aegon is false would he himself even know that? He could have just been a purple eyed kid who was raised to believe he was really him.

[The Storm King]

at first i believed that Aegon was really really really Aegon as in son of rhaegar and elia aegon. but then i realized it wont matter even if hes not. the realm will believe he is Aegon and if he is fit to rule then he should be king after all the sadness and destruction westeros has faced since robert's death...it needs a good king

[Ice Turtle]

There is a good chance that someone will lay bodies of Myrcella and Tommen in front of the new king. Tyrells so far didn't seem as vengeful lot but I think that if Cersei kills Margaery things will go nasty...

[Fire Eater]

at first i believed that Aegon was really really really Aegon as in son of rhaegar and elia aegon. but then i realized it wont matter even if hes not. the realm will believe he is Aegon and if he is fit to rule then he should be king after all the sadness and destruction westeros has faced since robert's death...it needs a good king

It would matter in regards to how Dany would react, and many supporters like Connington, are backing Aegon on the basis that he is real. I don't think Aegon qualifies as a good king given that he is still half a boy and he took Tyrion's lesson with ill grace.

I think that Cersei will imprison Margaery and her cousins in the Maidenvault akin to Baelor the Blessed, and keep the girls as hostages.

[PrimeRhaegar]

well there is a new dance of dragons on the horizon so yes history does have a way to repeat itself. Yes i do believe that aegon is rhaegar and elia's son until proven otherwise

[giant snake]

There is a good chance that someone will lay bodies of Myrcella and Tommen in front of the new king. Tyrells so far didn't seem as vengeful lot but I think that if Cersei kills Margaery things will go nasty...

Yes that seems very likely to me. Also it seems that Jaime isn't going to be in King's Landing for some time, so he's basically useless as the commander of the KG. Also, what of Loras? Is he going to die from his wounds? Seeing as he has two very capable brothers, I'm expecting that bad things will happen to Margaery and Mace that they will be looking to avenge.

I'm also on board with assuming that he's the actual Aegon until proven otherwise. It doesn't affect the story at this point, so I'm ready for further confirmation in either direction.

[Fire Eater]

There is a good chance that someone will lay bodies of Myrcella and Tommen in front of the new king. Tyrells so far didn't seem as vengeful lot but I think that if Cersei kills Margaery things will go nasty...

I don't think that'll happen. Cersei will keep Margaery as a hostage to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty and obedience.

[Eyron]

I think Aegon is a Blackfyre, from the female line, but that he himself is unaware of this. The story of the Blackfyres are mentioned a little too much for them never to arise again. The whole purpose of uniting Aegon with Danaerys seems to me to be to unite the lines of the Black and the Red dragons. The Blackfyres could never conquer the Targaryens, but in a last effort they could be joined into the family again. Under false pretenses but still effectively.

The dance of the dragons will occur again in some form, as will the invasion of Westeros under Targaryen banner. But the thing for me is that I do not believe the fall out will be the same, because why would GRRM do that when he can turn the tables and show how the circumstances can never be the same and while history does repeat itself in certain ways, sometimes by purpose of the involved, it will never fall out the same. Aegon (or whoever he is) will not be the new Aegon the Conquerer, that is too easy.

[Ice Turtle]

I don't think that'll happen. Cersei will keep Margaery as a hostage to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty and obedience.

Can you really see Cersei this reasonable if someone (one of Varys' agents) accused Margaery of Joffrey's poisoning? I think that at least part of truth about PW will become known. Probably the part about LF and Tyrells "working with" Tyrion and Sansa.

[Fire Eater]

Can you really see Cersei this reasonable if someone (one of Varys' agents) accused Margaery of Joffrey's poisoning? I think that at least part of truth about PW will become known. Probably the part about LF and Tyrells "working with" Tyrion and Sansa.

I think Olenna will confess to the poisoning if Sansa is just about to be executed for it. Cersei would execute Olenna, but if Margaery dies before Tommen than the Tyrells will fight against her, and if Tommen dies and Cersei keeps Margaery as a hostage to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty than killing her would be giving the Tyrells a reason to side against her.

[Ice Turtle]

I think Olenna will confess to the poisoning if Sansa is just about to be executed for it. Cersei would execute Olenna, but if Margaery dies before Tommen than the Tyrells will fight against her, and if Tommen dies and Cersei keeps Margaery as a hostage to ensure the Tyrells' loyalty than killing her would be giving the Tyrells a reason to side against her.

Why would Olenna sacrifice her life for Sansa?