Littlefinger's arc in Winds of Winter: westword bound!

[Melisandre's Shadow]

Great OP. Littlefinger + Blackfish = should have been obvious. I need someone to kill Freys and the bad guys killing bad guys does make a lot of sense for GRRM narrative work. :bowdown:

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

http://asoiaf.wester...hapter-in-twow/

Have you read this thread, it completely blew me away. I found it very interesting. I'm also very aware of Sansa's apparent controversy upcoming. I strongly respect its going to be about her becoming a player in the Game of Thrones. If it is a sexual one I believe it will be Tyrion and not LF she will go to willingly.

Tyrion is a physically grotesque dwarf, a member of a family that imprisoned Sansa for the best part of a year, killed her father and married her against her will

He married her not because he loved her but because of her claim. Neither of them have ever shown any wish to rekindle their "relationship" since the PW.

Why would Sansa fall in love/have sex with Tyrion?

The futures of the Great One and Sansa are now, be it for better or worse, pretty closely entwined for the moment. I don't see either of them going west.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

LF never has been a long-term planner; he's an opportunist. With Sansa's imminent emergence as a Player in the Game, and the Mad Mouse's ambitions about to throw a wrench into things, I foresee LF's improvisational skills being heavily taxed in tWoW. I don't think he's going to be in a position to execute any medium-term plans. He's going to be fighting too many fires at home.

As for the "controversial" Sansa development, it would behoove us to remember that:

1) GRRM has crafted scenes where both Cersei and Dany have experimented with lesbian sex.

2) Miranda Royce has invited "Alayne" to share her bed.

[DaarioBigalowTyroshiGigolo]

This has been one of the more thought out and coherent theories I've seen in a while. Nice work. :laugh:

[siknes]

Apologies in advance as I've lurked long enough to know LF's motives (power, chaos, Sansa, etc) have been debated to death :) But I'm less interested in debating his EVIL MASTER PLAN ™ and more interested in surmising his specific, next moves in WOW (assuming Sansa/Alayne went get dropped for a second straight book), especially because I don’t buy for a second that he has any plan to rule the Vale.

But I do think he has a plan for the Vale’s armies. And I think I know where they’re going next: the Riverlands. More specifically: The Twins.

My theory is that by the end of WOW:

1) “Alayne” marries Harry the Heir, and reveals her true identity

2) Sweetrobin meets with an “accident” at a convenient time/place

3) LF motivates the new Lord of the Eyrie to march on the Twins and

4) (this is where I’m a little uncertain, but it will be tricksy and cunning) LF artfully suggests he hold Riverrun with Sansa as his guest (her mother’s home! She’ll be comfortable and not at all creepily hit on!), perhaps agreeably giving up his claims to the Vale and/or Harrenhal, while Harry presses her claim up north.

Reasons I'm going with:

A) When we last saw LF (aFfC 41, Alayne 2), he was too blithely aware of his tenuous position in the Vale to make me believe it's anything but a stopover point:

"When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon... and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out... clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back... why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa... Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell.” –AffC ch 41

Not a bad windfall Sansa! If you can take him at his word (spoiler alert: you can’t). I think the quote above suggests LF’s play with the Lords Declarant is a classic-bait-and-switch (and his move with Lyn Corbray just buys him time), positioning them firmly behind Harry the Heir while making a backdoor move marrying Harry and Sansa before her big reveal. Bronze Yohn and any allies he has remaining are assuaged not only having his own ward take up Jon Arryn’s seat, but FINALLY getting the opportunity (created by LF) to jump in on the war Lysa kept the Vale out of. LF flips his biggest enemy by (once again) understanding and manipulating his motivations

B) On that note, I don’t buy that he’s going anywhere near the North. Winterfell is a canard for Sansa – I don’t blame her, but her desperate wish for home is his trump card over her. Crafty LF isn’t throwing his bright, shiny new army away on Moat Cailin and a protracted war against Stannis, the Boltons, the Frays, Northmen TBD, and of course, winter. Nope, he’s just banking on throwing it at…

C) THE FRAYS. As Emmon Frey will tell you, there's no love lost between the newly raised Lord Paramount of the Trident and his family, and as everyone else will tell you, the Frays are not exactly trustworthy vassals. They're an obvious obstacle to any move LF makes, north or west. More importantly, they are scattered and vulnerable – one host is North in Winterfell (their primary host? not sure on numbers), and another is west besieging/occupying Riverrun (I think Emmon's eventual garrison numbered only 300), leaving the Twins undermanned. Equally important is that their apparent allies are all dead (Tywin, Kevan, Joffrey, Jaime?) or occupied elsewhere (Boltons, Cersei, Jaime?). And Freys seem to be dropping like flies as of aDwD, no? Seems like the type of vacuum a devious man could operate in…

An Eyrie host with the full power of its united lords (the Lords Declarant brought a token force of 6K with them to the Moon gate alone) marching under the symbolic banner of Hoster Tully’s granddaughter would sweep across the Riverlands, driving off the last dregs of Fray and Lannister forces while former Stark/Tully allies flocked to their standard. And it's all made possible by LF's leadership, who can no doubt wax poetic about the Fray's killing the woman he loved without resorting to (too many) lies.

D) The Frays killed Cat. Obvious, but bears repeating

E) Riverrun was his home and the place he fell in love with her...and also Hoster Tully's home, the big Lord who took it all away. Don't know if you noticed, but LF likes his revenge on big Lords who wronged him and none wronged him bigger than Hoster

F) Obligatory EVIL MASTER PLAN note: I’ve seen some form of “LF does it for the game,” “LF is buying/bribing his way to the top,” etc etc in most of his threads but why would he even care to be king? Seems like a dangerous position and LF isn’t a man to put a bulls-eye on his back. I'm not convinced any of his actions to date have even brought him closer to the throne (he seems to kill off or abandon powerful friends/allies as easily as he makes them). Riverrun (with Sansa) seems a far more realistic ambition

G) Obligatory Blackfish note: Isn't he the perfect LF ally in this scenario? LF offers him 1) an army to take back the Riverlands 2) a Tully in Riverrun (Sansa, himself or TBD), 3) a chance for vengeance against the Frays/Lannisters and the Boltons (once Harry marches north), 4) legitimacy/a pardon from the crown with his influence in KL and (nominal) position as Lord Protector of the Vale. meanwhile LF gets back 1) a war leader all the Vale Lords know and trust and 2) THE rallying point for Tully loyalists. Seems more probable than BF abandoning Tully lands to off Fray kids in the stables..

H) Finally, I know I’m in dangerous waters arguing GRRM narrative patterns (lol), but one of my personal favorite plot devices he uses is when one evil bastard is set up to unleash badassery on another evil bastard in a way that consistently surprises the reader (using “evil bastard” metaphorically, lol), e.g. Ramsay taking out Theon at Winterfell, Victarrion baring down on the Yunkai fleet, the Hound doing Hound things, Daario doing Daario things, etc. He’s got this incredible talent for making you genuinely root for the most unredeemable characters by setting them up against even bigger a**holes. Who better to take out the traitorous Frays than the biggest backstabber of them all?

Apologies in advance is this exact argument and all these exact plot points have been suggested already, first post and i gotta lot of catching up to do :)

GRRM makes these undesirable characters anti-heros(Hound, Theon, Jamie, etc.) into likable redemption characters. Remember GRRM is more into the grey of a character, not neccecarily good or evil (Black and White) Now I happened to watch the first 2 Seasons of GAME, before reading straight through in a months time all 5 books. What I got from the Hound from the get go, when he saves Loras is as an anti-hero, and it rings true throughout his story. Yes he is crass and hated by most, due to his deformed(burned face) and the stigma that that incident has on his psychy as a whole, the fact that he had to do what little Joffrey ordered of him never helped the likability of his character. Think about it his character is a romantic at heart, but knows any time he makes love (Fucks) that that woman could not look on his face with the same passion that he wants to receive, (in other words he is most likely a virgin, and that is a lot of sexual frustration build up to drive any man as bitter as he is. Now jamie on the other hand is/was hated for pushing Bran out the window, HELLO something had to happen to Bran to put him forth on his current journey. Here is one that thinks the Stark children are being pulled from their main goals. Rob failed, by marrying, although I got from the initial Walder Frey Scene with Cat that he was going to do the back stabbing anyway. Jon, passed by not becoming Lord of Winterfeld and not burning the Weirwoods N of the wall. Aria, is failing, she is not destined to be a face-less (Wo)man, she needs to be with Nymeria and her pack, controlling them. Sansa is the wild-card, she just needs to not trust LF.

[tsunad]

Well roughly:

1. Sweetrobin dies.

2. Harry the Heir becomes Lord of the Vale.

3. Harry the Heir needs a Heir (time for him to get married!: he needs a heir)

4. Littlefinger offers Sansa, as the Lady of Winterfell.

1-3 looks likely in TWOW. (Although the order is uncertain).

4 seems likely, but I'm having problems with it.

If Sansa is revealed, she's an attractive bride for Harry (all of the Vale and all of the North)! And Littlefinger believes Sansa is his puppet, so Littlefinger would end up controlling the North and the Vale (Harry won't live long once Sansa has a child - and I suspect that Littlefinger is planning to be the father of that child).

But remember, Sansa is on the run for her (perceived) role in King Joffrey's death. And Cersei looks likely to be wielding a fair amount of power in King's Landing. She won't forgive, and she won't believe that Sansa wasn't involved.

Once it's revealed that Sansa is the Lady of Winterfell, it's going to be obvious that Littlefinger has betrayed the Iron Throne.

So what's the endgame here? Littlefinger seems quite fond of Sansa, in a rather creepy Cat-replacement way. His obsession with Cat (and now Sansa) is his weakness. You could even make the argument that it has driven his obsession with wealth and power. Catelyn rejecting him made him realize how his low station in life was going to limit him. He decided to seek revenge by seeking power, with the goal of eventually getting Cat. Now I believe that he's driven by both power and the desire for Sansa (as Cat's replacement).

Petyr Baelish was too insignificant of a lord to ever marry into Tully's, and he has fixed that. He (I believed) used the chaos of Jon Arryn's death to push Ned as the Hand of the King, with the intent of getting Ned banished or killed, freeing up Catelyn for him to marry. That failed, but he has Sansa as a replacement. And I think he wants Sansa as a daughter of a Tully, not Sansa as some unknown person (else he could have retired to the fingers with an anonymous Sansa). He's gotten the prize (a Cat replacement), but he's still seeking power.

His prize (Sansa) and his quest for power is going to come into conflict.

Which raises the question - if Sansa will be revealed as the Lady of Winterfell, the Vale will come into conflict with the Iron Throne. Littlefinger will have to throw his lot in with someone else.

The answer gives us a clue to where Littlefinger will head.

We have a few contenders - Stannis, Aegon, and Dany.

Stannis would be an attractive choice (the North and the Vale border each other, and Sansa would win hearts & minds). But Stannis is rigid. He cut off the fingers of the smuggler who saved him from starvation. I don't see Littlefinger thinking he'd survive long in that environment. And he can't do away with Stannis since that means the Iron Throne would win and Littlefinger would be beheaded as a traitor.

Aegon is in the Stormlands, with hostile land (King's Landing) between them. But the Vale threatening from the north, and the Golden Company / Dornish threatening King's Landing from the south gives a credible threat to the Iron Throne. It'll destroy the "Baratheon" dynasty and in the chaos, Littlefinger may figure he'll thrive.

Dany is ... well, who knows at this point. :P I'd like to say that Littlefinger has heard of her, but does he figure she's a player in Westeros at this point? On the other hand, her large unsullied army must be attractive. Plot-wise, there's a few attractive things about Littlefinger throwing in his lot with Dany. It gives her a staging area. And it keeps Littlefinger/Dany in opposition to Varys/Aegon. Aegon is Vary's pawn. Having Littlefinger throw his lot in with Aegon resolves that tension between Littlefinger and Varys. But having Littlefinger back the other Targ contender for the throne keeps that tension. It keeps things interesting.

So where will Littlefinger head if this is true? I'm not sure. Fetching Dany in Essos seems like a long trip. Dany may come to Westeros for other reasons and the alliance made afterwards. Heading west without the backing of Dany, once Sansa has been revealed, seems rather risky (there are Lannisters and Freys there, neither I think will be receptive to Littlefinger).

It depends on what happens with whoever Littlefinger throws his lot in with. Littlefinger won't follow their armies, but he'll use his powers to build alliances "for" his new King or Queen.

TL;DR:

As soon as Sansa is revealed as Sansa, it reveals Littlefinger as a traitor to the Iron Throne.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I really don't think Sansa/ Harry will be a happy ending. Sansa tried to find true love, and it is rare and far between to actually get. I see Sansa being an independent woman maybe with a political marriage, and Arya finding true love with Gendry. Kinda bittersweet ending. Littlefinger's getting burned or going to fly. Harry will do the same.

[~No One~]

LF never has been a long-term planner; he's an opportunist.

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

LF had Lysa persuade her husband to promote him to Master of Coin so that he could bankrupt the realm, then he had her poison him to create a power vacuum, in which he capitalized through his 'alliance' with the Lannisters.

Then he played the long-game by getting Harrenhal, the title of which he used to marry Lysa and get the Vale.

THEN, he mentions to Sansa/Alayne that he expected Cersei to ruin the realm, but not for another 5 years or so, during which he expected to have time for his plotting. He was annoyed that he had less time than he would have wanted.

LF is the original long-term planner. With the exception of Varys + Illyrio, he's the longest-term planner.

[juanml82]

That's one of the best LF theories I've seen on here. A few questions though: what do you think his intended endgame is, if not the Iron Throne? Also, what about Edmure? LF apparently never forgave him for acting as Brandon's squire, and he is the true Lord of Riverrun, which would cause problems vis a vis installing Sansa as a puppet. Although warring against the Lannisters could be detrimental to his health somewhat....

Also: The Hound doing Hound things, Daario doing Daario things. Brilliant.

I think he plans on Edmure getting killed by the Lannisters. Depending on how he plays his army's descend into the Riverlands, it would further galvanize the Riverlords to him. Destroying House Frey will, of course, cause every lord in the Riverlands, the Vale and the North (well, nearly all of them) to worship him.

We have to remember that we, the readers, know LF is a villain. But few living people in Westeros know that.

I really don't think Sansa/ Harry will be a happy ending. Sansa tried to find true love, and it is rare and far between to actually get. I see Sansa being an independent woman maybe with a political marriage, and Arya finding true love with Gendry. Kinda bittersweet ending. Littlefinger's getting burned or going to fly. Harry will do the same.

I don't think this series is about "true" love. And, if anything, Sansa doesn't desire "true" love, but the "normal" love of someone who will want her for what she is and not because of her titles

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

LF had Lysa persuade her husband to promote him to Master of Coin so that he could bankrupt the realm, then he had her poison him to create a power vacuum, in which he capitalized through his 'alliance' with the Lannisters.

Then he played the long-game by getting Harrenhal, the title of which he used to marry Lysa and get the Vale.

THEN, he mentions to Sansa/Alayne that he expected Cersei to ruin the realm, but not for another 5 years or so, during which he expected to have time for his plotting. He was annoyed that he had less time than he would have wanted.

LF is the original long-term planner. With the exception of Varys + Illyrio, he's the longest-term planner.

Littlefinger didn't bankrupt the realm, Cersei did. Remember, the realm could afford to pay its debts during a civil war, with the Riverlands destroyed, the North, the Stormlands and the Iron Islands withholding taxes. It was Cersei' stupid idea of rebuilding the Royal Fleet instead of relying on the Redwyne Fleet (or refinancing through the Tyrells) what bankrupted the realm. She could even refinance the debts of House Lannister herself, as she was, de jure, the head of House Lannister.

I pretty much agree with the OP. I also think LF might have plans to attempt to seize the hostages captured in the RW, or will try when/if information of their moving reaches him. I don't know if he has a plan regarding the South. So far, Aegon and Euron shield him from reprisals from the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. I guess he'll adapt and improvise about the South later on.

Rickon's continued existence, though, will throw a wrench to his plans. Sansa can not legally claim the North. At most, she can claim a regency of sorts there.

And, in any event, I don't think Stannis or the Frey host in the North will ever go south of the Twins ever again.

[Petyr Patter]

Thoughts on Sansa and Littlefinger and the rest of the Vale.

The moment Sweetrobin dies, Harold become Lord of the Vale. Since he isn't Littlefinger's ward, Littlefinger would have no place in the Vale anymore, since all his authority comes from his marriage to Lysa (dead) and his wardship of Robert Arryn. Multiple Vale lords would go to war if he tried to stay and exert power against Harold, who apparently is well loved by the nobility. Which in part is why he is trying to get into Harold and Lady Anya Waynwood's good graces with the betrothal. It also means if Robert dies to soon... he would be forced to leave the Vale as is.

Sansa is already married, and only a High Septon can annul it. Asking him for an annulment means revealing her presence. Littlefinger seems quite certain Tyrion is going to die, and maybe for good reason. Anyways, right now, the existing marriage is a pretty big impediment to a new marriage. Which is one of the reasons I don't think the two will ever be married.

I suspect he doesn't really care about Winterfell, but is using it as a carrot to make sure Sansa is well motivated to court Harrold. If he wins him and to his side, he can deliver the Vale to whatever pretender he wants. After Harrold is batting for team Littlefinger, its off to the Riverlands to rinse and repeat. Hence, why he wanted more time.

What he wants is a little less clear, but "everything" just sounds right. Either Hand of the King, husband to a Queen, or King himself.

Finally, he might be planning to crown Sansa Queen of the North, similar to how Arriane planned to crown Myrcella to provoke a civil war. She is, in theory, Robb's heir. Obviously, this would be a rebellion that would put whoever would support her against whoever supports Stannis and the Iron Throne. Still, Littlefinger does seem to like his chaos, and if the North rejects Sansa (and why would they accept her as Queen when she's been a puppet for so long?) it would pit the Riverlands against the North, undoing the alliance Ned and Catelyn's marriage help forge. Something Littlefinger might enjoy.

[heathers]

<p><p>

Tyrion is a physically grotesque dwarf, a member of a family that imprisoned Sansa for the best part of a year, killed her father and married her against her will. He married her not because he loved her but because of her claim. Neither of them have ever shown any wish to rekindle their "relationship" since the PW.Why would Sansa fall in love/have sex with Tyrion? The futures of the Great One and Sansa are now, be it for better or worse, pretty closely entwined for the moment. I don't see either of them going west.

I never said I thought Sansa would fall in love. IF she consummates her marriage it is even less likely to be anulled, meaning she is little use as LFs pawn. Sansa's beauty has been referred to many times as has her attraction to "pretty boys" (Joff, Loras).A match with Tyrion (or even the hound) would create a nice contrast.

The handsome prince will not marry a beautiful princess in this story. Tyrion did not kill her mother or father and he did treat her with respect at several times. The Lannister grip on the realm is failing and Tyrion is distancing himself from them ever more. LF on the other hand had a major part in the scheming that led to many of the bad things in her life. Once she realises this LF is in trouble. "Power resides where men believe it resides" - LF wants to be the power behing the face. As Dany may look young and pliable he may believe he has found another face for his power (in addition to Sansa). However, neither Sansa or Dany will be so easily influenced by the time they are all close together.

Dany is not a player at the moment but becomes a serious contender the moment her fleet/ army and dragons land in Westeros. IF she makes it there i believe she will land in the Vale. He can then reveal to Dany who she is and how he has secured the North, Vale and Riverlands for her. He does not know that Tyrion and Barristan are with her and unlikely to be complimentary about him. In this situation Sansa consummating her marriage and Dany realising the real fight is north not south completely removes all LFs power and influence. Add to the mix Dragons, White walkers, Jon's connection to her and her husband they have a chance of beating the Others. LF is going to have to fly, and probably Sweet Robin before him (possibly involving Sansa).

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

LF had Lysa persuade her husband to promote him to Master of Coin so that he could bankrupt the realm, then he had her poison him to create a power vacuum, in which he capitalized through his 'alliance' with the Lannisters.

Not correct. Lysa got LF a customs position at Gulltown. He moved up to MoC through ability. LF did not bankrupt the realm; Robert did by overspending. In fact, the realm wasn't bankrupt under LF- he was able to make the payments on the debt. He didn't plan to have Lysa poison Jon Arryn until Arryn started investigating Robert's bastards. (So he could blame the Lannisters.) Arryn's actions were prompted by Stannis. LF's lies about the knife used to try to kill Bran were on-the-spot improvisation.

Then he played the long-game by getting Harrenhal, the title of which he used to marry Lysa and get the Vale.

He got Harrenhall as a reward for arranging the Tyrell alliance (a momentary opportunity he exploited), then parlayed it into a marriage with Lysa within a couple months. That's not long term to me.

THEN, he mentions to Sansa/Alayne that he expected Cersei to ruin the realm, but not for another 5 years or so, during which he expected to have time for his plotting. He was annoyed that he had less time than he would have wanted.

But the plots aren't even defined yet. He's playing it by ear.

LF is the original long-term planner. With the exception of Varys + Illyrio, he's the longest-term planner.

The only long term planning (I'll define that as a plot that runs for more than a couple years) we've seen from LF is a general desire for revenge against the Starks, personal ambition, and some manipulation of Lysa.

[juanml82]

Finally, he might be planning to crown Sansa Queen of the North, similar to how Arriane planned to crown Myrcella to provoke a civil war. She is, in theory, Robb's heir. Obviously, this would be a rebellion that would put whoever would support her against whoever supports Stannis and the Iron Throne. Still, Littlefinger does seem to like his chaos, and if the North rejects Sansa (and why would they accept her as Queen when she's been a puppet for so long?) it would pit the Riverlands against the North, undoing the alliance Ned and Catelyn's marriage help forge. Something Littlefinger might enjoy.

Why would the North think Sansa is a puppet? She used to be a hostage, just like the GreatJon. I don't think LF has any reason to believe the North would reject Sansa as far as going to war against her:

She's Ned's little girl.

Once Jeyne is revealed as Jeyne and not Arya, Sansa is the only surviving Stark. This should also discredit the Boltons.

It's safe to assume Stannis and the Boltons will destroy each other.

Sansa has executed Joffrey, or so everyone believes. If anything, the only complain the Northern lords would have about it is that it took her too long do it

She's coming back to the North with an army of Valemen at her back (well, technically, in front of her, but you get the idea), who are fighting for the Northern cause

She's exerting vengeance upon the Freys.

LF doesn't know about Rickon nor the GNC (if it exists)

Stannis tries to discredit her, so he can feel his grip in the North can weaken even further if Sansa resurfaces

Why would LF believe the North would fight the Riverlands because of Sansa? He probably isn't counting with the Northerners flocking to her just because she is Ned's little girl. But, if anything, he's smart enough to manipulate them to support the only living Stark, which is something many Lords would want to do anyway.

I think the Frey hostages taken at the RW are key to LF plans for the North.

[~No One~]

Littlefinger didn't bankrupt the realm, Cersei did.

Cersei did not bankrupt the realm. Sorry.

In aGOT, Ned sees that the Realm is in severe debt. Tyrion sees the same thing when he takes over as Master of coin in aSOS. This is all before Cersei has done anything.

Yes, she makes it worse, but as we learn from LF in an Alayne chapter, this was his plan all along.

[~No One~]

Not correct. Lysa got LF a customs position at Gulltown. He moved up to MoC through ability. LF did not bankrupt the realm; Robert did by overspending. In fact, the realm wasn't bankrupt under LF- he was able to make the payments on the debt. He didn't plan to have Lysa poison Jon Arryn until Arryn started investigating Robert's bastards. (So he could blame the Lannisters.) Arryn's actions were prompted by Stannis. LF's lies about the knife used to try to kill Bran were on-the-spot improvisation.

He got Harrenhall as a reward for arranging the Tyrell alliance (a momentary opportunity he exploited), then parlayed it into a marriage with Lysa within a couple months. That's not long term to me.

But the plots aren't even defined yet. He's playing it by ear.

The only long term planning (I'll define that as a plot that runs for more than a couple years) we've seen from LF is a general desire for revenge against the Starks, personal ambition, and some manipulation of Lysa.

Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. You seem to think he's capitalizing on fortuitous events, and I think he's masterminded those events into happening. GRRM is the only one who really knows ;)

Out of curiosity, what makes you think he wants revenge against the Starks? Do you mean the Tullys by any chance?

[juanml82]

Cersei did not bankrupt the realm. Sorry.

In aGOT, Ned sees that the Realm is in severe debt. Tyrion sees the same thing when he takes over as Master of coin in aSOS. This is all before Cersei has done anything.

Yes, she makes it worse, but as we learn from LF in an Alayne chapter, this was his plan all along.

The amount of debt is meaningless without taking into account the amount of income. And, apparently, LF is responsible for increasing both.

And even before Cersei got the regency, how much trade and taxation was lost due the war? Out of the Seven Kingdoms, three regions were withholding taxes because they were in rebellion, one region was devastated through the war and the capitol was cut from the Reach and preparing for a siege for a while. And even in that context, the realm paid it's debts.

[Tony of House Stark]

Wouldn't it be awesome if LF Red Weddinged the Freys at Sansa's wedding?

[aryagonnakill]

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

LF had Lysa persuade her husband to promote him to Master of Coin so that he could bankrupt the realm, then he had her poison him to create a power vacuum, in which he capitalized through his 'alliance' with the Lannisters.

Then he played the long-game by getting Harrenhal, the title of which he used to marry Lysa and get the Vale.

THEN, he mentions to Sansa/Alayne that he expected Cersei to ruin the realm, but not for another 5 years or so, during which he expected to have time for his plotting. He was annoyed that he had less time than he would have wanted.

LF is the original long-term planner. With the exception of Varys + Illyrio, he's the longest-term planner.

I will also respectfully disagree. I don't think LF's plan extended past kill Jon Aryn, get the wolf and the Lion to go to war. He knew Cersei was trying to off Robert and that Robert was an idiot, BUT, to say that LF knew that he would be made lord of Harrenhall is I think impossible. I think he just created chaos and power vacuums which he knew he would be in a good place to take, but he couldn't have had specific points in mine during a war. No plan of battle ever survives contact with the enemy.

I don't think this series is about "true" love. And, if anything, Sansa doesn't desire "true" love, but the "normal" love of someone who will want her for what she is and not because of her titles

Littlefinger didn't bankrupt the realm, Cersei did. Remember, the realm could afford to pay its debts during a civil war, with the Riverlands destroyed, the North, the Stormlands and the Iron Islands withholding taxes. It was Cersei' stupid idea of rebuilding the Royal Fleet instead of relying on the Redwyne Fleet (or refinancing through the Tyrells) what bankrupted the realm. She could even refinance the debts of House Lannister herself, as she was, de jure, the head of House Lannister.

The part you wrote about Sansa doesn't make any sense to me. Isn't love based on who she is rather than her titles true love? As to bankrupting the realm. It was Cersei who lost of realm the ability to borrow money, but it was LF who put the realm 6 million in debt to begin with, and turned into one of the richest guys in the series while doing it.

[juanml82]

The part you wrote about Sansa doesn't make any sense to me. Isn't love based on who she is rather than her titles true love? As to bankrupting the realm. It was Cersei who lost of realm the ability to borrow money, but it was LF who put the realm 6 million in debt to begin with, and turned into one of the richest guys in the series while doing it.

Check the quotes. I meant the kind of "true" love that populates fairy and rather girlish romantic tales (no offence intended)

[~No One~]

The amount of debt is meaningless without taking into account the amount of income. And, apparently, LF is responsible for increasing both.

And even before Cersei got the regency, how much trade and taxation was lost due the war? Out of the Seven Kingdoms, three regions were withholding taxes because they were in rebellion, one region was devastated through the war and the capitol was cut from the Reach and preparing for a siege for a while. And even in that context, the realm paid it's debts.

Well, when Jon meets Tycho in DWD, he says that while Robert was king, all was well, meaning that the interest on the loans was paid. When Cersei comes into power, she doesn't further the debts, but she does stop payment. With the income that she should have used to pay off the debts, she made war dromonds, which she then gave to Aurane Waters.

So, you're right, the crown was paying its debts before, but Cersei had nothing to do with that. She stopped payment.