Theon sacrifice. Spoilers?!

[Hrafntýr]

Of course, it should be obvious to anyone reading that Asha doesn't plan on letting her baby brother die at all. Asha is tempting Stannis with the (likely false) potential to curry nothern favor and win the Northmen's hearts by killing Theon "northern style" and avenging Ned Stark's boys the way Ned Stark himself would've done it. Sure, if Theon can't be saved, she'd rather save him the pain of immolation, but finding some way to fast talk Stannis into staying his hand or even Putting It Off until after the battle for Winterfell is step one in Saving Her Brother's Life, because it buys her time to come up with a plan. Maybe she's counting on the chaos of battle, or maybe she's got something else in mind.

She's not just the clever one in her family (faint praise if ever there was), Asha's clever, period. And all through that sample chapter, you can hear her gears turning.

I definitely agree with this as the explanation for Asha's motivation (well said, btw!). She's buying time.

I don't think that Asha has any connection to the Old Gods, but she's been with the Northmen long enough to observe how seriously they take the old religion, and even she's creeped out the the weirwood on the island.

The wild card here is the ravens. For my part, I don't think that they're agents of BR or Bran, but independent actors (I feel that way about Jeor Mormont's raven, too). They're pushing things toward the heart tree, and we know that ravens have a very special connection to weirwoods. Although I don't have evidence for this, I don't think that connection is because they are being skinchanged through it. Ravens (or some ravens?), we are told, have the souls/spirits/consciousness of Children within them.

So why do the ravens want Theon at the tree? I think it's because no lies can be told before a heart tree, or so the Northern folk knowledge goes. The tree is where the truth is going to come out.

But I don't think Asha is aware of any of this, or at least I don't recall her being told this folk knowledge (my copy of DwD is away from home).

[Joe Pine]

I'm going slightly crackpot here, but here goes.. :)

"And I have a tender spot in my heart for cripples and bastards and broken things." – Tyrion Lannister A Game of Thrones, Chapter 24, Bran.

Cripple - Bran. Bastard - Jon. Broken Thing -Theon.

The 'tender spot in my heart' could relate to the Weirwood tree, if described as a heart tree or possibly also Stannis's heart sigil.

A 'sacrifice' of Theon at the 'heart tree' at the same time that Jon is killed by the NW or possibly at same time that Melisandre tries to revive him soon after, then leads to Jon 'warging' one way or another (I admit to being vague as to how the fire magic and CoTF magic hooks up) but - it gets him into Theon's body and near instantly from The Wall to Winterfell and conversely, Theon to The Wall (where arguably he should be).

I'll throw in some quotes to help my crackpottery..

She studied him. “For the same reason you love them. …Why do you love the Starks?”

“I…” Theon put a gloved hand against a pillar. “…I wanted to be one of them…”

Theon V, The Turncloak, ADWD'

:o

Farther on, he came upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. When they found themselves face to face, their eyes met briefly. The man put a hand on his dagger. “Theon Turncloak. Theon Kinslayer.”

“I’m not. I never… I was ironborn.”

“False is all you were. How is it you still breathe?”

“The gods are not done with me,” Theon answered..

(Theon VI, A Ghost in Winterfell, ADWD)

:o

[blackfish:] “Will I be paraded through King’s Landing to die like Eddard Stark?”

[Jaime:] “I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark’s bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall.”

The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. “Did your father arrange for that, as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both.” (Jaime VI, AFFC)

All I've to figure out is how the Weirwood network and Mel's kiss of life could hook up to actually make it happen and also how Jon in Theon's body and vice versa works out in identifying themselves.

It ends Jon's watch at the wall. Both characters have King's Blood one way or another and it give Theon a shot at redemption at the wall and places Jon back in the north at a stroke where he can get embroiled in the Great North Conspiracy/Bolton/Frey stuff.

I hope my tags work!

[STRONG LIKE BEAR]

Actually, my own guess is that Manderly will end up revealing that Theon never killed Bran and Rickon, thereby allowing Stannis to use Theon much more usefully. There is a reason we learned of the story of Torgorn Greyiron (see here).

Theon's private parts have been mutilated. He is not going to be leading the Ironborn. Even if he still had man parts, he could not hope to lead the Ironborn.

[Hrafntýr]

Theon's private parts have been mutilated. He is not going to be leading the Ironborn. Even if he still had man parts, he could not hope to lead the Ironborn.

Recall that Asha is clever. Theon's existence is enough to render null the outcome of the first Kingsmoot; perhaps this opens the door for a second Kingsmoot, or rather Queensmoot, which I believe is what Asha has in mind. And, with Euron and Victarion away, there can't be an immediate new Kingsmoot, so again, Asha is buying time. But this gets rather off topic, apologies!

[Lord Ravenstark]

Theon's private parts have been mutilated. He is not going to be leading the Ironborn. Even if he still had man parts, he could not hope to lead the Ironborn.

You don't need a penis and testicles to lead.

[STRONG LIKE BEAR]

You don't need a penis and testicles to lead.

Yeah, actually you do. Theon cannot produce an heir. Even if he was the baddest dude in all of the Iron Isles, they would still laugh him out of the hall.

[Sweet-N-SourRobin]

The Ironborn have a spiritual leader as well as a political one.

Sure, Theon currently seems attuned to the "wrong" religion for the Ironborn, but other than that, he's had a harrowing experience that has fundamentally changed him and left him much more spiritually aware. Sound like anyone else in his family? It should. Maybe Balon's leadership role is out of the question, but he seems almost the ideal candidate to succeed Uncle Aeron as High Priest. Well, if he converts back to the Drowned Faith, anyway :)

Maybe that's Asha's ideal setup: Her as Queen, little bro as High Priest

[Frey-A-La-Mode]

IIRC wasn't Ned denied The Black?

In AGoT, Varys convinced Ned to confess to treason (by appealing to him for the sake of Sansa), and in return he was supposed be allowed to take The Black. Everyone wanted this, most especially Cersei and the rest of the Lannisters - except Joffrey. Cersei knew that the Northerners would have to grin and bear it if Ned confessed and took The Black, because no one respects The Night's Watch more than dyed-in-the-wool Northerners. There's a line in the show (I don't think it's in the books, but I could be wrong) where Varys tells Ned "Cersei knows that a tame wolf is of more use to her than a dead one"

However, it all went awry when Joffrey ordered Ned's execution, simply because he was the new king and wanted to flex his muscle, and we all know how much of a sadistic bastard he is. Everyone was panicking and freaking out (in the show you can see Varys run over to him, and Cersei telling him "this is madness!"). The reason for this panic is because it had been arranged that Ned was supposed to take The Black, as this would've been the easiest way to placate the Northerners.

[Frey-A-La-Mode]

The Ironborn have a spiritual leader as well as a political one.

Sure, Theon currently seems attuned to the "wrong" religion for the Ironborn, but other than that, he's had a harrowing experience that has fundamentally changed him and left him much more spiritually aware. Sound like anyone else in his family? It should. Maybe Balon's leadership role is out of the question, but he seems almost the ideal candidate to succeed Uncle Aeron as High Priest. Well, if he converts back to the Drowned Faith, anyway :)

Maybe that's Asha's ideal setup: Her as Queen, little bro as High Priest

Theon as the new Aeron Damphair? That is something I've never considered before. He'd need a new name though. "Theon the Thrice-Flayed" or something.

[Petyr Patter]

I think there are two important history lessons in a Feast for Crows regarding the Kingsmoot.

First, the aforementioned heir not being present forces another kingsmoot be called.

Second, when Urron Greyiron ended the kingsmoot tradition by killing all present and declaring himself and his line hereditery kings.

If another kingsmoot is called, I kind of feel like the second lesson is the important one. A Theon pressing his claim, would force Euron to respond by returning to the Iron Isles alongside his king/captains to make sure he keeps his authority over the Iron Islands intact. This does seem to be something he's concerned about, as a lot of his post-kingsmoot maneuvers have been about marginalizing or winning over people who could challenge his authority. He sent Victorian far away, he married "anvil-breaker" to Asha. He apparently is trying to kill the Damphair if he hasn't succeeded.

Of course, gather up all the powerful nobility of the Iron Isles in one place...

[STRONG LIKE BEAR]

First, the aforementioned heir not being present forces another kingsmoot be called.

Theon is not the heir, as he is able to produce none. He is a eunuch. In the show Balon says this very thing in almost the same words.

Second, when Urron Greyiron ended the kingsmoot tradition by killing all present and declaring himself and his line hereditery kings.

If another kingsmoot is called, I kind of feel like the second lesson is the important one. A Theon pressing his claim, would force Euron to respond by returning to the Iron Isles alongside his king/captains to make sure he keeps his authority over the Iron Islands intact. This does seem to be something he's concerned about, as a lot of his post-kingsmoot maneuvers have been about marginalizing or winning over people who could challenge his authority. He sent Victorian far away, he married "anvil-breaker" to Asha. He apparently is trying to kill the Damphair if he hasn't succeeded.

Of course, gather up all the powerful nobility of the Iron Isles in one place...

None of the Ironborn are going to fight for a eunuch. Victarion is worried that he won't be respected and will be mocked if he has a woman advising and helping him rule. Think about that. Victarion is worried he might be mocked if he has Asha (a warrior who is fiercely respected by her men..) advising him.

[Lord Ravenstark]

Theon is not the heir, as he is able to produce none. He is a eunuch. In the show Balon says this very thing in almost the same words.

None of the Ironborn are going to fight for a eunuch. Victarion is worried that he won't be respected and will be mocked if he has a woman advising and helping him rule. Think about that. Victarion is worried he might be mocked if he has Asha (a warrior who is fiercely respected by her men..) advising him.

I do not understand. Why you are saying that a man can't inherits when he can't produce a direct heir?

[Faint]

The question of Theon producing an heir is largely irrelevant. Asha can always produce one for him. I would also be cognizant of the reality that by the time another kingsmoot is called, the fortunes of the Ironborn will have drastically changed.

[TheUnknownTargaryen]

IMHO there's no way Theon makes it back to the iron islands for a kings moot. Even if he did, do you remember the respect he received when he showed up?! None! No one really cared wo he was when Balon was still alive, why would they care now.

If he isn't sacrificed, his place will either be with the Nights watch or somehow dying for a Stark down the road.

[Lord Jon Connington]

It was mentioned up-thread already but too many seem to bypass it. Asha's original plan was to bring back Theon to contest the Kingsmoot but that was BEFORE she saw what he has become. Methinks she might be calling an Audible on the whole thing and just want to send her crippled, maimed, dickless brother to live off his insanity with his mother or something.

I guess it's safe to say that there will be an Asha chapter in TWOW that will precede this Theon chapter that GRRM has release. Maybe she'll be having a chat with Theo Wull or some Liddle about executions in the North? There is a probably someone or something who will put a bug in her ear about the heart tree.

What will happen at the heart tree though? I don't have a single clue.

[Hrafntýr]

I don't think it was ever Asha's plan to get Theon installed on the Seastone Chair. I think that her plan was to use the precedent of Torgon the Latecomer to get the results of the first Kingsmoot nullified, so that a second is required. At the very least this buys time, as Euron and Victarion would need to return (or die) before the new Kingsmoot were held. For all that Asha can buckle her swash with the best of the Ironborn, she is also unconventional. She is close to the Reader, and suggests that she'll be reading his sources on Kingsmoots before attending, which she may well have done. And her stump speech at the Kingsmoot is not the typical Ironborn "rape and pillage" vision, but rather one of making peace with the other kingdoms of the North, and even valuing more highly working the land. One can only suspect that her landbound time among the Northmen has made such a vision more tangible for her.

And she needs Theon alive for her vision to be possible. So, to reiterate points upthread, Asha is using the heart tree sacrifice idea to buy time, in hopes of coming up with another plan or that new circumstances arrive that change the lay of the land. Personally, I think it's going to work, and I definitely don't think that Theon is going to be sacrificed. As I noted in my post above, I think that the "no lies before the heart tree" principle is going to be enacted, that the scene of Theon's sacrifice will involve the revelation that Bran and Rickon are alive, possibly that "Arya" is Jeyne, that Ramsay was responsible for the sacking of Winterfell. I also think that a representative of the GNC could even show up with Rickon at this scene.

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

Who are the GNC? And wasn't Rickard executed by Robb, which was what upset the Karstarks? Or do you mean another Rickard?

Sorry just a bit confused

[Hrafntýr]

Lord Spark: GNC stands for "Grand/Great Northern Conspiracy": it's one of the very popular topics of discussion here on the board. Basically, the idea is that nearly all the Northern houses (led by Manderly and Umber, in particular, with supporting roles for Glover, Liddle and Mormont; opinions vary regarding Lady Dustin's game) are secretly plotting to restore House Stark to power. They're playing Stannis against Roose, they may already have hold of Rickon, and they may have Robb's will.

And sorry, "Rickard" was a typo for Rickon!

[redriver]

I don't think it was ever Asha's plan to get Theon installed on the Seastone Chair. I think that her plan was to use the precedent of Torgon the Latecomer to get the results of the first Kingsmoot nullified, so that a second is required. At the very least this buys time, as Euron and Victarion would need to return (or die) before the new Kingsmoot were held. For all that Asha can buckle her swash with the best of the Ironborn, she is also unconventional. She is close to the Reader, and suggests that she'll be reading his sources on Kingsmoots before attending, which she may well have done. And her stump speech at the Kingsmoot is not the typical Ironborn "rape and pillage" vision, but rather one of making peace with the other kingdoms of the North, and even valuing more highly working the land. One can only suspect that her landbound time among the Northmen has made such a vision more tangible for her.

And she needs Theon alive for her vision to be possible. So, to reiterate points upthread, Asha is using the heart tree sacrifice idea to buy time, in hopes of coming up with another plan or that new circumstances arrive that change the lay of the land. Personally, I think it's going to work, and I definitely don't think that Theon is going to be sacrificed. As I noted in my post above, I think that the "no lies before the heart tree" principle is going to be enacted, that the scene of Theon's sacrifice will involve the revelation that Bran and Rickon are alive, possibly that "Arya" is Jeyne, that Ramsay was responsible for the sacking of Winterfell. I also think that a representative of the GNC could even show up with Rickon at this scene.

I agree with most of what you're saying here.Asha has no intentions of backing Theon in a kingsmoot challenge,but she needs him alive to promote her own case.From a narrative perspective I think she's needed to counter and be a realistic alternative, as an Ironborn ruler, to Euron, as the story progresses.She's very clever as someone pointed out upthread.This move,at worst, provides a more humane death for Theon than being burned alive.But yes,it's also a temporizing move.

As to the point about "you can't tell a lie in front of a heart tree",I don't think it means you can't tell a lie in itself because it's already been done.And Theon's already done it by declaring Jeyne Poole to be Arya Stark at the Ramsay marriage in Winterfell.But I do think it means the old gods will know it's a lie and act accordingly.So whilst a Theon "confession" might be believed as truth,I doubt it's enough to save his head.

But I'm in agreement that Theon will survive this,the old gods aren't finished with him yet!It looks to me that Bran and Bloodraven are pulling strings here,and will intervene somehow.In which way is impossible to predict,the author has held back on the Bran chapters deliberately,so we don't know what they're really capable of.One scenario we've already seen twice in the books is the massive raven attack.Perhaps the ravens attack Ramsays forces as they arrive?

Directed by Bran/Bloodraven,of course.I don't subscribe to this ravens are running the show stuff.If done in a timely manner,it may be the kind of "divine intervention" that saves Theon.

Narratively,you could ask why save Theon?Well,he's good with a bow and arrow...

[Hrafntýr]

Thanks, redriver, good stuff here!

"Stannis"'s army is comprised of a lot of Northerners, who take that heart tree business quite seriously, adding to the likelihood that a Theon confession might be heard. But I do think that it might be a moment when the GNC is revealed, since Asha's bid for time may mean that the heart tree scene (if there is a heart tree scene!) happens when the Manderly/Umber forces have come into contact with Stannis', and so the reveal might involve those who have more credibility. (Incidentally, regarding truthtelling before the heart tree, I've been meaning to parse the scene of the Ramsay/"Arya" wedding for truths and lies, but unfortunately have to wait until my copy of DwD returns to me.)

I don't think that the ravens are running the show, but I do think they have independent consciousness and intelligence; I think they've already played a part in supporting Asha's play for more time by their uncanny cries of "Theon" and "tree." I don't entirely believe that BR is a fully independent actor, but has been appropriated by the Children. So, you could say that the Children are directing the ravens, but I think it's more in the manner of working with them than skinchanging into them. Ultimately, it probably doesn't matter too much one way or another in terms of the outcome for Theon, since what happens to him will depend upon humans' perceptions of what's going on at the heart tree. Mel's a wildcard in this, too, since it's hard to know how she'll respond if there are some seemingly supernatural events before the heart tree. But to reiterate: I suspect that, other than some more raven action, we won't see supernatural events there, because human actors are going to intervene with their knowledge of Bran and Rickon's survival. But your question is a good one: why would any of these human actors care whether Theon survives? Perhaps the fact that he was only responsible for the first capture of Winterfell, and didn't kill the Starks will be enough to lift his death sentence? Or is there some other "use" for Theon, besides Asha's, that would make them want to keep him alive? Right now, I can't see anyone to whom he's of any value, other than Asha.

In terms of the narrative purpose of saving Theon, I find your argument that "the old gods aren't done with him" more persuasive than the bow and arrow business, since, despite what has been said upthread about whether his remaining fingers are the "right" ones for skillful use of a bow, it's hard to imagine someone that Lady Dustin notes can't even hold a spoon will be a real force with weapons.