R+L=J v.54

[bobbybuilderton]

Umm did the writers ever mention anything about Robb's will in the show cant recall but if they didn't it will be interesting to see how it will just pop up in the series considering we're still awaiting the reveal of it's true contents in the novels and if it mentions Jon as his successor

The conclusion leaped to by most book readers seems to be that since it was left out of the show, that plot goes nowhere in the books. But to that, I respond with "Dany and Qarth."

[Jon Icefyre]

Umm did the writers ever mention anything about Robb's will in the show cant recall but if they didn't it will be interesting to see how it will just pop up in the series considering we're still awaiting the reveal of it's true contents in the novels and if it mentions Jon as his successor

Blackfish most likely has it on the show, and it definitely names Jon as Robb's successor or else there would have been no point whatsoever of Robb having the conversation with Cat about naming Jon his heir in the books.....

[325504503]

Wow, first post on this massive thread may be a mistake.....

Just came to say after spending A LOT of time reading this thread: I believe R+L=J

I caame into it thinking Jon was the offspring of Robert and Lyanna somehow and that he was the rightful heir to the Iron throne as Robert's true bastard.

I see know that is improbable if not impossible.

[WildBlood]

A (mysterious), mischievous Dayne, agewise probably in his mid-twenties to thirties or so who very likely lived in Starfall, which is close to the ToJ and it is where Ned went after the ToJ-fight, meaning that he is a potential witness of something. Plus, ya know, it's Darkstar.

Darkstar would have been in High Hermitage though, right? Since he is of the Cadet branch of Daynes...? :dunno:

[bobbybuilderton]

The show and the books are separate and I don't take anything that happens in one to have any bearing on the future of the other, at this point. They're related but separate.

[Jon Icefyre]

Darkstar would have been in High Hermitage though, right? Since he is of the Cadet branch of Daynes...? :dunno:

HH is on route to the TOJ and therefore could be seen as an ideal place to stop by in order to rest, eat, gain supplies, and so forth.....

[WildBlood]

HH is on route to the TOJ and therefore could be seen as an ideal place to stop by in order to rest, eat, gain supplies, and so forth.....

TOJ is much further North than HH... Ned would have been done at TOJ headed south to Starfall by the time he hit HH.

http://i137.photobuc.../Dorne.jpg

[Jon Icefyre]

The show and the books are separate and I don't take anything that happens in one to have any bearing on the future of the other, at this point. They're related but separate.

True but it's not that separate, I mean at the end of the day the show still had Ned beheaded, Jon kill a white, Robb start a rebellion, Dany hatched her dragon eggs, her husband died, she had a stillborn, Renly and Robert die, the battle of BW, Tyrion disfigured and married to Sansa, and the RW among other things. So I mean the show may deviate from the books a lot but you can still expect the end result of the main plot points of the show to be on point with the books.

TOJ is much further North than HH... Ned would have been done at TOJ headed south to Starfall by the time he hit HH.

http://i137.photobuc.../Dorne.jpg

Rhaegar, Lyanna, and the KG were at the TOJ for the better part of year and I find it very hard to believe no one it Dorne knew they were there, I mean they had to get their supplies from somewhere. It's not crazy to assume Arthur Dayne might have taken some trips to and from the TOJ to Starfall and HH looks like an ideal place to stop in between. The same goes for Ned after the TOJ, HH looks like an ideal place to stop before Starfall and if he's carrying a baby Jon with him, then obviously ppl at HH would know he couldn't have gotten the baby from Starfall if he showed up at HH with the baby before he even reached Starfall for the first time, therefore the ppl at HH would know the story of how Ned supposedly picked up Jon at Starfall was complete bs.......Also it's definitely possible that Ned's visit to Starfall and the TOJ was discussed among the Daynes and therefore somehow managed to reach the ear of Darkstar aka Gerold Dayne....

[WildBlood]

I guess that is a conceivable story... But I, personally, would think the story the Daynes passed around is the one that Edric got passed to him and then passed to Arya. But it is anyone's best guess.

[Jory Cassel]

Darkstar would have been in High Hermitage though, right? Since he is of the Cadet branch of Daynes...? :dunno:

Right, my bad, completely forgot that.

I guess that is a conceivable story... But I, personally, would think the story the Daynes passed around is the one that Edric got passed to him and then passed to Arya. But it is anyone's best guess.

Given his age (and supposing it went down like Jon Icefyre said, which I believe too), maybe no one had to tell the story as he saw them (Ned, Howland, Jon + unknown others) himself. Maybe he was at HH and witnessed them passing, maybe he was only out on a ride and saw them by pure chance.

[Jon Icefyre]

I guess that is a conceivable story... But I, personally, would think the story the Daynes passed around is the one that Edric got passed to him and then passed to Arya. But it is anyone's best guess.

Still regardless of what Starfall says if Ned stopped at HH(which is an ideal place to stop) with a baby Jon after the TOJ on the way to Starfall then again, the ppl at HH would know the story Starfall is trying to sell is complete bs. Because they would have seen baby Jon before Ned had even reached Starfall for the first time, and therefore would know Ned could not have possibly gotten Jon from Starfall.

[Stannis Lives]

Blackfish most likely has it on the show, and it definitely names Jon as Robb's successor or else there would would have been no point whatsoever of Robb having the conversation with Cat about naming Jon his heir in the books.....

could have sworn they mentioned it on the show

[corbon]

I know you have discounted Edric Dayne's claim that Ned loved Ashara as evidence because of his age and the fact that he would have relied on hearsay to make this claim. However, if you are going to use Edric Dayne's claim that Wylla was Jon's mother as supporting evidence establishing that the people of Starfall had personal knowledge that it wasn't Ashara (which I think is the argument you are making), than I think you also have to use his claim that Ned and Ashara were in love as supporting evidence that the people of Starfall had personal knowledge that this was the case.

No, I don't think so. You have to look at what people (and which people) are likely to know, how they would get that knowledge, and why they would be saying such things if they were not true. And since people are saying incompatible things, some things can't be true, but people are still saying them.

We know the people at Starfall in general should have knowledge that Ashara is not Jon's mother (assuming R+L=J etc) because she was there already, not pregnant (as far as we know) for the last 9 months etc etc. Ned Dayne's statement merely confirms this, its not the basis of that assumption.

Ned Dayne gives us two details, which conflict mind you!

One, Wylla is Jon's mother. That makes perfect sense, as no one in Starfall would ever think that Ashara was his mother because she was in Starfall, not pregnant, no reason to be secretively hiding or anything, and no baby was born around that time, and Ned almost certainly turned up at Starfall bringing Jon from ToJ with Wylla. Pretty much anyone and everyone in and around Starfall should be privy to that knowledge.

Two, Ned and Ashara were in love. But this doesn't makes sense with the first tidbit, and is a personal and private observation that is not likely to be widely known by all and sundry in Starfall, compared to "Ashara has not been pregnant for the last nine months" and "Ned Stark rode in to Starfall with Wylla and Jon". So almost certainly its either actual gossip (as opposed to knowledge) or a romanticised story made up by Allyria Dayne that explains why her aunt Ashara committed suicide. Instead of a grubby little unexplained suicide, its a tragic and romantic tale of torn apart lovers and a baby taken from its mother. It could even have been made up by older Daynes who know the truth to make Ashara's suicide look a little more explainable and respectable.

@Corbon Let's play the probability game. Mya Stone was born in 281AL. And, the Harrenhal Tourney was held int he Year of the False Spring, 281AL. The probability is that Mya is born after the tourney.

Surely if there are two events of more or less unknown timing, the probability is equal which one comes first?

And even if we are given a window for each, and know that A fits in the first half of the window, that does not rule out B fitting before A.

But see below.

When they label a year as being a false spring, that implies a year followed that was not spring, or more likely winter; by implication. But, spring comes early in the year,

Does it?

Why?

You seem to be assuming standard 3-monthish seasons, not multi-year seasons, and assuming that year timing matches the seasons regularly. But we know at least the first part of that is not true, and it follows therefore that the second part is not either. Spring could easily come late in the year (or more accurately, late in the previous year).

Seasons, at least summer and winter, last for years, often. The preceding winter clearly did. I don't see why apparently random seasonal changes would still only happen at the 'usual' times, which makes the claim that spring comes early in a year unfounded.

And when I see "the year of the False Spring", I see that a multi-year winter briefly appeared to end before reverting back to winter. I don't see that spring lasted all that year, and I don't see that the next year must have been majority winter - the false spring could have been only a few months long and the second half of the same 281 year been winter, for example. I also don't see a full round of seasons before winter is back. A false spring indicates to me winter, we-thought-it-was-spring-because-it-was-warm-but-we-were-wrong, continued winter, spring, summer....

However, I'll sort of agree with your conclusion, if not the method explained in getting there. There is another good basis for claiming the Tourney was early(ish) in the year - it must be early in the year because Aegon was conceived around that time, R+L has no need to happen until after Aegon was born (9 months), then Brandon's response, Rickard travelling to KL and their trial all have to happen this year. Its a tight schedule.

and Harrenhal's Tourney was held early in that particular year. Early enough that Mya had a significantly better chance of being born later than before. ;)

Perhaps. But not enough to rule it out. You seem to be insisting that she was born later. She has as much chance of being born in January as any other month.

ETA: Oh, and you suggested that Robert had been to Winterfell before he went north to ask Ned to be Hand? Do you have anything at all to support that?

I gave it as a possible example. Actually he's not necessary to be there, but there is no reason why not.

Is there anything to rule it out?

He's Ned's best friend, and is going to be betrothed to Lyanna, why wouldn't he visit?

He did seem to know his way around Winterfell (at least to the crypts) 17-odd years later...

Lets look at it again.

Apparently, its winter, then suddenly at the start of 281, spring appears to begin (lets say we can fudge some of this part into late 280). The Tourney happens within a few months, despite the planning and time needed to send word throughout westeros and allow people to prepare and arrive. None of which is likely to even begin until winter breaks (or appears to). So although the tourney is 'early' in 281, its either not that early, or the spring started in late 280 (in which case why isn't 280 the year of the false spring?) But it can't be too late, because Rickard and Brandon die in 281, and a lot has to happen before that happens.

So after the tourney, Ned and Robert travel back to the Eyrie, where Ned holds newborn Mya in his arms, while Lyanna returns to Winterfell. Then Ned goes back to Winterfell. The engagement is announced there, and Lyanna tells Ned her feelings about Robert. Then Lyanna heads south again (or doesn't and splits with Rhaegar later from Winterfell - err, unlikely) and Ned heads back to the vale. All of this is rushed through very very quickly, because winter then sets in and lasts for 9 months, but clears in enough time for Brandon and Littlefinger to do their thing and Lyanna to be abducted, all within about 12-preparation months of the tourney.

Its all a tight sqeeze.

My alternative possibility:

Winter appears to break late 280 or very early 281. Word is sent out, lets say nov/dec/jan for a great tourney in late Feb at harrenhal, so people can come in time.

Mya is born in early Jan and Ned holds her in his arms.

Then Ned returns to Winterfell, possibly with Robert. Its been a few years since he's been home, due to winter (who travels too and from Wintefell in winter?). Robert might well go along to meet Lyanna, talk with Rickard, and because he's best friends with Ned.

Late Jan/early Feb sees the engagement announced and Lyanna tell Ned about Robert. Then everyone travels to Harrenhal for the tourney.

Late Feb sees the tourney.

March/april, winter descends again. The spring can't last too long, or it wouldn't be a false one. It can't be too short, because who organises a tourney in winter? and it takes months for word to go out and people to come from all over the continent. the following winter can't be too short, or it wouldn't be the spring that was false. But it can't be too long, because then no one would have time to travel at all.

Lyanna may or may not return to Winterfell before the weather breaks again. I suggest not. Its a long two-way trip, there isn't a large window of time at either end for her to travel, there are good reasons for her to stay in the south and learn about the culture and the people she will be part of (and get that wildness lessened one hopes! (speaking as Rickard)) and it makes an awful lot more sense for her 'abduction' to have happened in the south than near winterfell.

Nov, Aegon is born. R+L happens late Nov. Early Dec Brandon does his thing and late Dec is the trial

Yours basically has most the same, but with enough time for everyone to travel back up to winterfell after the tourney, Ned at least stopping by at the Eyrie first. A nine month winter will be a squeeze to fit that in, but yes, mine only works if Mya is born very early in the year. Yours has more room for Mya, less room for travelling time.

I don't think mine is any better than yours, and indeed, yours is probably slightly better than mine. Unless I've bungled something there of course. But I don't see yours as being definitive or required.

Given what we have, I admit I can't really see time for a trip to winterfell in 281 before the tourney. But I also can't see time for everything thats necessary to squeeze in the end of the year either, especially not for a trip up to winterfell after the tourney and a nine month 'second' winter.

I think this is just one of those occasions where GRRM's "don't examine the timeline too closely please" come into play.

Shift Maya's birth by a month or two into late 280, and then I'd favour mine heavily over yours. Ifs and buts... :cool4:

[SFDanny]

Let's play the probability game. Mya Stone was born in 281AL.

Sorry that I can't play the game with you - real life has been intruding on my Westeros time - but I had a chance to look at some recent posts and this jumped out at me. As some of you know I've grown a little obsessed with trying to figure out the ages of characters over the years and Mya's age is one I've pondered for a while. So, if you have a way of nailing down her age I'd love to read it. My notes put her born in either 280 or 281, with 280 being more likely. Can you elaborate on your statement, please? Perhaps I'm just missing something obvious? Thanks, in advance for your reply MtnLion.

[corbon]

Sorry that I can't play the game with you - real life has been intruding on my Westeros time - but I had a chance to look at some recent posts and this jumped out at me. As some of you know I've grown a little obsessed with trying to figure out the ages of characters over the years and Mya's age is one I've pondered for a while. So, if you have a way of nailing down her age I'd love to read it. My notes put her born in either 280 or 281, with 280 being more likely. Can you elaborate on your statement, please? Perhaps I'm just missing something obvious? Thanks, in advance for your reply MtnLion.

Oooh, ifs and buts indeed! :cool4:

All I have is the wiki, which says 281. I'm guessing that is merely a rough calculation based on her age in years in ASoS Appendix (19) and similar data, rather than a defintive date.

In which case I'm going back to my thesis that there was no trip back to Winterfell for Lyanna, and probably Ned, after Harrenhal.

[SFDanny]

Oooh, ifs and buts indeed! :cool4:

All I have is the wiki, which says 281. I'm guessing that is merely a rough calculation based on her age in years in ASoS Appendix (19) and similar data, rather than a defintive date.

In which case I'm going back to my thesis that there was no trip back to Winterfell for Lyanna, and probably Ned, after Harrenhal.

That would be my guess as well for the source of the information, but that has an obvious problem. Dance with Dragons has a appendix entry on page 979 that says "Mya Stone, a maid of nineteen, in the service of Lord Nestor Royce, of the Gates of the Moon." Most of the novel is set in year 300 and if we do simple subtraction we get 300-19 = 281. The problem is this doesn't tell us when Mya turns 19. It only points toward her being 19 in year 300. Obviously she could have turned nineteen in 299 and not have had her name day at the start of the novel and be nineteen in 300. In fact, the entry in A Storm of Swords (page 928) also has Mya listed as nineteen and the novel takes place almost entirely in 299 - up to Joffrey's death - and would point to her being born in 280. We just don't know when these entires are pointing to when she is nineteen. So, if that's the starting point it's still a mess.

In A Game of Thrones Ned thinks of Mya and tells us the following:

“Ned remembered Robert’s first child as well, a daughter born in the Vale when Robert was scarcely more than a boy himself. A sweet little girl; the young lord of Storm’s End had doted on her. He used to make daily visits to play with the babe, long after he had lost interest in the mother. Ned was often dragged along for company, whether he willed it or not. The girl would be seventeen or eighteen now, he realized; older than Robert had been when he fathered her. A strange thought.” (AGoT 267)

This takes place in 298 (I can go into why I'm sure it is 298 later if people are interested) and could put her being born in either 280 or 281, but the reason I think this points most likely to her being born in 280 is that Ned thinks she could be eighteen in 298. He just doesn't know exactly when her name day is, but he knows the year she was born. One can interpret it in different ways but that's the one that make most sense to me.

However, believe me if Mountain Lion has more information that nails this down, I will be the first to thank him and add this fact to the huge jigsaw puzzle that is Martin's timeline.

Oh, and as far as I'm concerned no discussion on these timeline question can rely on wiki entries. They are a little more reliable than flipping a coin, but not by much. Just want to state my bias upfront.

And, lastly, I'm with you on when Ned's conversation with Lyanna in Winterfell takes place - before Harrenhal. Admittedly, I've gone back and forth on that question, but I think things point that way with all the ramifications for the story it represents.

[corbon]

However, believe me if Mountain Lion has more information that nails this down, I will be the first to thank him and add this fact to the huge jigsaw puzzle that is Martin's timeline.

Me too. I just did a reverse and while I'm happy to possibly be able to come bac to my original position, if the reverse has solid reason after all, then I'll be happy to go back to it.

Oh, and as far as I'm concerned no discussion on these timeline question can rely on wiki entries. They are a little more reliable than flipping a coin, but not by much. Just want to state my bias upfront.

Indeed. I personally have absolutely no other information, so it was wiki or coin, and as you say wiki wins, barely. So when someone else makes a call that the wiki backs up, I went with it.

And, lastly, I'm with you on when Ned's conversation with Lyanna in Winterfell takes place - before Harrenhal. Admittedly, I've gone back and forth on that question, but I think things point that way with all the ramifications for the story it represents.

Yeah, for me its the logical 'everything else' that says it ought to be before Harrenhal primarily, not timeline requirements. But if timeline requirements move it, so be it.

[Maxpey]

No, I don't think so. You have to look at what people (and which people) are likely to know, how they would get that knowledge, and why they would be saying such things if they were not true. And since people are saying incompatible things, some things can't be true, but people are still saying them.

We know the people at Starfall in general should have knowledge that Ashara is not Jon's mother (assuming R+L=J etc) because she was there already, not pregnant (as far as we know) for the last 9 months etc etc. Ned Dayne's statement merely confirms this, its not the basis of that assumption.

Ned Dayne gives us two details, which conflict mind you!

One, Wylla is Jon's mother. That makes perfect sense, as no one in Starfall would ever think that Ashara was his mother because she was in Starfall, not pregnant, no reason to be secretively hiding or anything, and no baby was born around that time, and Ned almost certainly turned up at Starfall bringing Jon from ToJ with Wylla. Pretty much anyone and everyone in and around Starfall should be privy to that knowledge.

Two, Ned and Ashara were in love. But this doesn't makes sense with the first tidbit, and is a personal and private observation that is not likely to be widely known by all and sundry in Starfall, compared to "Ashara has not been pregnant for the last nine months" and "Ned Stark rode in to Starfall with Wylla and Jon". So almost certainly its either actual gossip (as opposed to knowledge) or a romanticised story made up by Allyria Dayne that explains why her aunt Ashara committed suicide. Instead of a grubby little unexplained suicide, its a tragic and romantic tale of torn apart lovers and a baby taken from its mother. It could even have been made up by older Daynes who know the truth to make Ashara's suicide look a little more explainable and respectable.

I see your point. It is certainly possible that Edric Dayne's claim that Ned and Ashara were in love was the result of gossip and/or a cover story to explain Ashara's suicide. However, I would disagree with you that these possibilities are more likely than the alternative; that Ned and Ashara really were in love.

I would also disagree with you that the rumour that Wylla being Jon's mother is incompatable with the claim that Ned and Ashara were in love. A man can be in love with a woman and still father a child with another woman (look at Patriots QB Tom Brady ;) ).

Regardless, it will be interesting to see what role, if any, Ashara Dayne had in this saga. I think she is destined to play more than a red herring for the identity of Jon's mother (at least I hope so!).

[corbon]

I see your point. It is certainly possible that Edric Dayne's claim that Ned and Ashara were in love was the result of gossip and/or a cover story to explain Ashara's suicide. However, I would disagree with you that these possibilities are more likely than the alternative; that Ned and Ashara really were in love.

Why? What else do we actually have that points to N+A? Nothing really. We have a bunch of rumours by people who don't actually know anything, with an obvious (but wrong) source of most of the rumours. We have less than nothing from KotLT story. Then we have Ned Dayne's 'evidence', which must be second hand or worse, since he wasn't born, and you think its just more likely to be true than not? Because...?

We also, mind you, have some fairly strong counter-evidence from Selmy, who definitely believes he's had some experience with young girls and the men they choose, and Ashara Dayne is probably the most significant young woman in his life until Dany, and who definitely sems to know more about what happened to her, such as that she looked to a Stark and had a stillborn baby. But he thinks (complains to himself, so 'knows' in his own mind) that young girls always choose fire men, not mud men. Clearly, as far as he is concerned, Ashara Dayne did not choose Ned Stark!

Unless you are going to claim that Ned Stark, pretty much the definitive mud man,is really a fast-burn-out fire man instead of putting down roots and growing slowly and productively?

I would also disagree with you that the rumour that Wylla being Jon's mother is incompatable with the claim that Ned and Ashara were in love. A man can be in love with a woman and still father a child with another woman (look at Patriots QB Tom Brady ;) ).

Not incompatible, no, but inconsistent, yes.

And even more so when you consider this is Ned Stark we are talking about, not Tom Brady.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see what role, if any, Ashara Dayne had in this saga. I think she is destined to play more than a red herring for the identity of Jon's mother (at least I hope so!).

So do I. But some people can't get past purple eyes, nor can they admit that a man, with a poor record of age-guessing, guessing a middle aged woman's age (you, know, that thing that is impolite to mention because no one ever gets it right, so you just end up embarrassing/insulting people), might not be 100% accurate.

[Stannis Lives]

You guys are 100% sure they didn't mention the will in the show? I thought for sure they did.