R+L=J v.54

[Victarion10]

Yeah, I get that. But the tone might change if they read the article that makes a very good case for it. If you haven't, Victarion10, read this http://towerofthehan...ws_parents.html

Ok, wow, I am pretty sold on the theory now. (Though I don't want it to be true)

[corbon]

You should convince Cersei of this, perhaps she won't hold such a grudge about Robert's exclamation on their wedding night. ;)

Haha, true. OTOH thats 2 years later and Robert has had the emotional need to invent, or embellish his great love by then. He still never new Lyanna, and therefore never truly loved her. But she did become his symbol.

So, the conversation at Winterfell is after Mya's birth in the same year as the Tourney at Harrenhal is held. They express the timing of the tourney as in the year of the false spring, and true enough, Mya could be born before the tourney, but for word to get back to Lyanna, wherever she is, would take time. The conversation with Ned occurs that day that the betrothal is announced, it only stands to reason that it is after Harrenhal.

But why? Its equally as easy for it to be before they travelled south to Harrenhal?

It makes sense for Robert to meet, and accept Rickard's proposal, after the first night's merriments, and Robert's war of cups. The announcement was later, at Winterfell, and during the winter.

It makes just as much sense for the whole thing to have happened before the tourney. In fact, it makes more sense. Robert and Ned travel to Winterfell at the start of the spring, Robert meets Rickard himself and accepts the proposal, Lyanna has time to observe Robert herself, and accumulate the information about Maya, and speaks with Ned. Later they head south together for the tourney.

Robert isn't all over Ned or Lyanna on the first night of the tourney because they haven't just met, they've been hanging out for months already.

By your own arguments, the tourney couldn't have even been planned until the spring started, because travel would have been too dangerous and no one would be sure when exactly the winter would (falsely) end. So there is plenty of time available.

Precisely, a mountain top is very cold and dangerous during the winter. Travel is possible, but not taken lightly. There would need to be an urgent need for a person to leave the warmth of his fire and brave the winter winds and snow.

Right, but this is irrelevant. No one is at the Eyrie during the winter, they abandon it!

We are talking about travel through the vale and the riverlands mainly. Except that with you positing this 9 month long winter filling most of the gap between Harrenhal and the abduction/elopement, you are talking about travelling through the north (both ways) during winter. I'm suggesting no north, and that they stayed around the vale/riverlands. Which is actually a lot more sensible by your own arguments!

Clearly we are confusing each other somehow. :cool4:

Not really, you are referring to Brandon travelling to Riverrun to duel Littlefinger? That betrothal announcement was made the following spring, when travel was becoming more easily possible. Littlefinger hears the announcement and challenges immediately. Brandon comes, and does what is necessary, then tells Catelyn he must leave for a short errand. Littlefinger recuperates enought to be transported by litter over the next fortnight. While enroute on his return to Riverrun, Brandon receives a message that has him ride for King's Landing. It sure matches the timeline of nine months or more of winter, following Harrenhal, quite well.

And where is the time to travel north to winterfell, and then south again?

Its all much simpler if they stay in the south and the betrothal etc is before Harrenhal, duuring the early part of the false spring. And the extra winter can be pretty much any amount of time. It need not fill the whole nine months.

[AryaBaratheon]

Ya, I really hope GRRM gives us a Darkstar pov that sheds a little more light on the TOJ. Also I really wish we could have gotten at least one Maester Aemon pov chapter before he died, I would've loved to read his thoughts about Jon...

A Maester Aemon POV would be a dream come true!

[bobbybuilderton]

Ok, wow, I am pretty sold on the theory now. (Though I don't want it to be true)

Ashara Dayne factors in in some way, I think, due to things said in this SSM http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040

But I don't know what to make of those comments. From what I can understand though, getting a bit more information about Ashara Dayne would all but confirm or deny R+L=J, so he refuses to say much. HOWEVER, that SSM is several years old and predates ASOS, so...yeah, still dunno what to make of it. I'll leave it to people much smarter than I am.

[Ygrain]

Continuing my AGOT re-read, the chapter when Ned and Robert ride away from the camp to discuss Dany and the discussion takes a turn towards naming Jaime Protector of the East instead of Sweetrobin, his credibility and the events of the Sack. Ned then says that the Sack lacked honour and Robert starts rambling that the Targs knew nothing about honour and tells him to go ask Lyanna about dragon honour.

- If Lyanna and Rhaegar were married as we believe, then this is perfect irony becauseRhaegar actually did the honourable thing.

It is also curious that Ned responds with "you avenged Lyanna at the Trident" while thinking to himself promise me.

However, I'm not sure if I'm not missing something due to translation, could anyone be so kind as to provide the original quote again? I'm putting these in a document for future use :-)

[corbon]

Ashara Dayne factors in in some way, I think, due to things said in this SSM http://www.westeros..../SSM/Entry/1040

But I don't know what to make of those comments. From what I can understand though, getting a bit more information about Ashara Dayne would all but confirm or deny R+L=J, so he refuses to say much. HOWEVER, that SSM is several years old and predates ASOS, so...yeah, still dunno what to make of it. I'll leave it to people much smarter than I am.

Its very simple.

Catelyn, and much of westeros (Cersei, other people at Winterfell, probably more), guess that Asharra Dayne is Jon's mother. Why? Because Jon first appears publicly with Ned at Starfall, and Ashara Dayne supposedly commits suicide at the time. Northern Lord goes to southern castle and takes away his bastard, southern noble maiden (preveiusly disgraced from court, for those that remember) commits suicide. Its an obvious solution that Ashara was the mother.

If you look at the SSM you linked two, there are two things that stand out.

First, the questioner assumes because Dany and Jon have namedays in or roughly around consecutive chapters, but are born in different years, Jon must be almost exactly a year older than Dany. GRRM explains that because of the intricacies of the story and pacing and editors etc, its not accurate to assume chapters are strictly cronological, thus makig the one year diffference wrong, and its more like 8-9 months difference actually.

Secondly, the questioner states that Catelyn must be a bit thick thinking Ned fathered Jon on Ashara when he went to Starfall (because that really messes up the ages of the kids and Catelyn ought to be able to count to 9 months, instead of around 18). But this is actually a bit thick by the questioner, who foolishly assumes that since that was the only time Ned went to Starfall, that was the only time Ned and Ashara could physically have got together.

GRRM very politely points out that Ashara was not nailed to Starfall, and could have been at other places, so she could have been with Ned at a much more reasonable time. Doesn't mean she was, just that she can't be ruled out due to lack of contact (though logically it would not have been easy across war lines they were on opposite sides of). The physical possibility exists.

Note that there are 2 (now 3) potential mothers given in the series for Jon. Robert, and Ned Dayne, believe Wylla is Jon's mother, and state so in the text. Others, including Cersei, Catelyn (probing on her part, not belief necessarily) and Harwin believe that Ashara Dayne is Jon's mother. In the Sisters they believe some fisherman's daughter was Jon's mother.

In truth, its almost certain that these are all red herrings, though explicitly laid out in the text (heck, at least two of them have to be) and his true mother is Lyanna Stark. But one thing GRRM didn't want was the elimination of any of these, particularly Ashara who has the most support throughout westeros. So when a questioner tries to elimate her, by pointing out how badly it makes Catelyn look to believe it is even possible, GRRM nullifies the poor assumptions made by the questioner.

[UVA]

However, I'm not sure if I'm not missing something due to translation, could anyone be so kind as to provide the original quote again? I'm putting these in a document for future use :-)

This may be more than you want Ygrain, but I think it's important to include the whole passage:

“Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well,” Robert said. The anger was building in him again . “Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it.” “You were not there,” Ned said , bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. “There was no honor in that conquest.”

“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!” “You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered. “That did not bring her back .” Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. “The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown … it was the girl I prayed them for. Your sister, safe … and mine again, as she was meant to be. I ask you, Ned, what good is it to wear a crown? The gods mock the prayers of kings and cowherds alike.”

[Nami]

I'm just reminded again that Robert is such a dick.

[Ygrain]

This may be more than you want

There is never enough ASOIAF, and the Czech translation sucks :-) Thank you!

Catelyn, and much of westeros (Cersei, other people at Winterfell, probably more), guess that Asharra Dayne is Jon's mother. Why? Because Jon first appears publicly with Ned at Starfall, and Ashara Dayne supposedly commits suicide at the time. Northern Lord goes to southern castle and takes away his bastard, southern noble maiden (preveiusly disgraced from court, for those that remember) commits suicide. Its an obvious solution that Ashara was the mother.

This can be reasonably assumed but it doesn't have any textual support. Plus, there would be a difference between what people at Starfall know, what people at Winterfell know and what the rest of Westeros know. The Starfallians and Witnerfellians have access to knowledge that the rest of Westeros doesn't have, namely Jon's age. The others know that Ashara was dishonoured at HH and had a child, that Ned made a detour at Starfall, Ashara committed suicide after that and that Ned has a bastard. The logical conclusion: Ned is the guy who banged her at HH and Jon is the child conceived there. It is not necessary to know about any other baby arriving with Ned at Starfall, as the rumour already has enough substance.

Note that there are 2 (now 3) potential mothers given in the series for Jon. Robert, and Ned Dayne, believe Wylla is Jon's mother, and state so in the text. Others, including Cersei, Catelyn (probing on her part, not belief necessarily) and Harwin believe that Ashara Dayne is Jon's mother. In the Sisters they believe some fisherman's daughter was Jon's mother.

Does Harwin truly believe so? Of course, he is talking to Arya, so he probably wouldn't be entirely open about it, but I find it curious that all he referes to is Ned's meeting with Ashara at HH, which would be inconsistent with Jon's age, and doesn't mention any later encounters.

[corbon]

This can be reasonably assumed but it doesn't have any textual support.

Close enough. Ned's first reappearance after he disappeared is at Starfall, delivering Dawn to the Daynes, and thats public knowledge. And there was no Jon before that, so thats where Jon first appears. And its backed up by the logical deduction widely made. Oustide of this, there is no actual connection between Ned and Ashara that we know of - all we have at HH is one dance between a Shy teen and the popular courtier his big brother asked to dance with him. There's no more in that, and probably less, than anyone else she danced with or talked to. At least not in our knowedge that is public knowledge (we have Selmy's thoughts, but that doesn't mean anyone else knows what he knows)

Plus, there would be a difference between what people at Starfall know, what people at Winterfell know and what the rest of Westeros know. The Starfallians and Witnerfellians have access to knowledge that the rest of Westeros doesn't have, namely Jon's age. The others know that Ashara was dishonoured at HH and had a child, that Ned made a detour at Starfall, Ashara committed suicide after that and that Ned has a bastard. The logical conclusion: Ned is the guy who banged her at HH and Jon is the child conceived there. It is not necessary to know about any other baby arriving with Ned at Starfall, as the rumour already has enough substance.

Yes, there is a difference. Starfall (Ned Dayne) says Jon;s mother is Wylla, because they know it wasn't Ashara. Winterfell (gossip Catelyn hears) thinks its Ashara, because all they know is Ned comes from Starfall with Jon and Ashara leaps from the tower.

Pinning N+A back to HH doesn't make sense because its years back, and there is nothing to connect them at HH anyway. But plenty of people will be confused and mix stuff up a little bit

The point is that no one connects N+A (either) until after Jon arrives on the scene. Whether they tie it to Harrenhal in a muddle or not doesn't really make a difference.

Remembering of course, that this is answering why nobody ever gossiped about B+A, but they do gossip about N+A - because N+A is pointed to by Jon's existence coming into play as Ned takes him from Starfall, and Ashara suicides.

Not because of HH.

Does Harwin truly believe so? Of course, he is talking to Arya, so he probably wouldn't be entirely open about it, but I find it curious that all he referes to is Ned's meeting with Ashara at HH, which would be inconsistent with Jon's age, and doesn't mention any later encounters.

Well, Harwin stands in for all of Winterfell, basically. And the rumours at Winterfell were of Ned and Ashara, when Catelyn inquired.

But yes, Harwin is really only talking about N+A, not necessarily Jon's mother.

Which is the true subject we are discussing in this little conversation anyway.

ETA: I think I'm crossing two conversations,but the answers are still pretty much the same. Yes, a little too much shorthand, sorry. Stand by the answers though.

[Jory Cassel]

“The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!” “You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered. “That did not bring her back .” Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. “The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown … it was the girl I prayed them for. Your sister, safe … and mine again, as she was meant to be. I ask you, Ned, what good is it to wear a crown? The gods mock the prayers of kings and cowherds alike.”

I love that part, I am always wondering if this might be foreshadowing to something of significance down in the crypts, the marriage cloak being close at hand as Robert mentions "honor"..

eta: already pointed out by ygrain before

[Maxpey]

Close enough. Ned's first reappearance after he disappeared is at Starfall, delivering Dawn to the Daynes, and thats public knowledge. And there was no Jon before that, so thats where Jon first appears. And its backed up by the logical deduction widely made. Oustide of this, there is no actual connection between Ned and Ashara that we know of - all we have at HH is one dance between a Shy teen and the popular courtier his big brother asked to dance with him. There's no more in that, and probably less, than anyone else she danced with or talked to. At least not in our knowedge that is public knowledge (we have Selmy's thoughts, but that doesn't mean anyone else knows what he knows)

Yes, there is a difference. Starfall (Ned Dayne) says Jon;s mother is Wylla, because they know it wasn't Ashara. Winterfell (gossip Catelyn hears) thinks its Ashara, because all they know is Ned comes from Starfall with Jon and Ashara leaps from the tower.

I know you have discounted Edric Dayne's claim that Ned loved Ashara as evidence because of his age and the fact that he would have relied on hearsay to make this claim. However, if you are going to use Edric Dayne's claim that Wylla was Jon's mother as supporting evidence establishing that the people of Starfall had personal knowledge that it wasn't Ashara (which I think is the argument you are making), than I think you also have to use his claim that Ned and Ashara were in love as supporting evidence that the people of Starfall had personal knowledge that this was the case.

[Dio Forel]

I don't for a second believe Tyrion is a Targ. What evidence is there for this?? (Will have to search and read on this but nothing will convince me) Tyrion knows the most about dragons from reading books and hopefully will be able to assist Dany with his infinite wisdom. Maybe he has learned and remembered some of those binding spells?

It could be some literary irony... Tyrion, the Lannister outcast, truly a Targ while beloved Cersei and Jaime are secretly incestuous like the Targs. Maybe thats the final insult to the Lannisters... Theyre not as different as we are to believe.

[LadyMacks]

It could have been a frivolous quote but to me it carried some significance and potential foreshadowing when Jon says to Arya something like "sometimes different roads lead to the same castle" as she's packing. If R+L=J, which I think it most likely does, then I definitely think Jon's role in the next two books is going to be a greater one. Even though things don't look too good for him right now. :dunno:

[MtnLion]

@Corbon Let's play the probability game. Mya Stone was born in 281AL. And, the Harrenhal Tourney was held int he Year of the False Spring, 281AL. The probability is that Mya is born after the tourney. Thus Ned having held Mya is after the tourney. And the conversation with Lyanna is well after the tourney, since he recalls holding Mya then.

When they label a year as being a false spring, that implies a year followed that was not spring, or more likely winter; by implication. But, spring comes early in the year, and Harrenhal's Tourney was held early in that particular year. Early enough that Mya had a significantly better chance of being born later than before. ;)

I know that it is shocking to think that someone may have languished in King's Landing because the Prince's Pass (in the mountains) was impassable. But, that is not what I am driving at.

ETA: Oh, and you suggested that Robert had been to Winterfell before he went north to ask Ned to be Hand? Do you have anything at all to support that?

[Amoracchius]

I personally believe Rhaegar and Lyanna were indeed married and the fact that the Targs have indulged in poly marriage more than once in Westeros definitely makes it possible that Rhaegar also married Lyanna, the problem is it's gonna be pretty hard to prove Rhaegar and Lyanna were married so even if R+L=J is indeed revealed everyone would still consider him to be a bastard until they got valid documented proof that states otherwise.

I'm totally with you on all your arguments, I just wanted to chime in about the proving a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna. While it will certainly be difficult to prove it to the people of Westeros on the whole, I've felt for a while that the story has been building to a point where Bran becomes aware of Jon's true parentage and sees a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna in front of a weirwood and maybe even on the Isle of Faces.

Sorry if this seems crackpot and I don't have my books with me so I can't pull quotes at the moment, but I think the Isle of Faces has been sufficiently built up, so there has to be a payoff at some point. I definitely welcome anyone's counter-arguments; I just love talking and thinking about this stuff.

[Jon Icefyre]

I'm totally with you on all your arguments, I just wanted to chime in about the proving a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna. While it will certainly be difficult to prove it to the people of Westeros on the whole, I've felt for a while that the story has been building to a point where Bran becomes aware of Jon's true parentage and sees a marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna in front of a weirwood and maybe even on the Isle of Faces.

Sorry if this seems crackpot and I don't have my books with me so I can't pull quotes at the moment, but I think the Isle of Faces has been sufficiently built up, so there has to be a payoff at some point. I definitely welcome anyone's counter-arguments; I just love talking and thinking about this stuff.

Oh I agree I think the readers will get valid proof of the marriage somehow either through Howland Reed or Bran, but will the vast majority of high lords and ladies of Westeros get the same proof? Most likely not....

[WildBlood]

Ya, I really hope GRRM gives us a Darkstar pov that sheds a little more light on the TOJ. Also I really wish we could have gotten at least one Maester Aemon pov chapter before he died, I would've loved to read his thoughts about Jon...

Did I miss something? How would darkstar know anything? :dunce:

[Jory Cassel]

Did I miss something? How would darkstar know anything? :dunce:

A (mysterious), mischievous Dayne, agewise probably in his mid-twenties to thirties or so who very likely lived in Starfall, which is close to the ToJ and it is where Ned went after the ToJ-fight, meaning that he is a potential witness of something. Plus, ya know, it's Darkstar.

[The Dragon & The Wolf]

Umm did the writers ever mention anything about Robb's will in the show cant recall but if they didn't it will be interesting to see how it will just pop up in the series considering we're still awaiting the reveal of it's true contents in the novels and if it mentions Jon as his successor