Are the Westerlings working with Tywin Lannister?

[Hot_Pie]

Something caught my eye while re-reading ASOS. Tyrion page 272:

"This Westerling betrayal did not seem to have enraged his father as much as Tyrion would have expected. Lord Tywin did not suffer disloyalty in his vassals. ...(stuff about the Reynes of Castamere)... 'The Crag is not so far from Tarbeck Hall and Castamere', Tyrion pointed out. ' You'd think the Westerlings might have ridden past and seen the lessons there.'

'Mayhaps they have,' Lord Tywin Said. 'They are well aware of Castamere, I promise you.'

'Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such great fools as to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?'

Every once in a long while, Lord Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat alone was terrible to behold. 'The greatest fools are offtimes more clever than the men who laugh at them.' "

Hmm, Tywin doesn't seem "Rains of Castamere" upset over this betrayal.That is very un-Twyin, to not suffer a slight with backlash. Could this be because it is not a betrayal? Tywin mentions earlier to Tyrion that wars can be fought with letters, which of course he does with his correspondence with the Freys. He essentially coordinated the Red Wedding with Walder. But this seems to hint that that is an endgame move, not just the fell swoop it looks like.

Could Tywin have planned for Jeyne to seduce Robb, knowing it would enrage the prickly old Lord of the Crossing? I think it likely. Tywin has proven his cunning before, and he's made moves like this that show he has full knowledge of the situation. He knows Frey is treacherous, he presumably knows of the marriage pact with the Freys and Robb. He knows what Robb is like, as he's mentioned before he's underestimated and he is still a boy. I think he knew Robb's boyish nature would cause him to fall in love, and his Stark honor would cause him to marry. This is why Lord Tywin is not upset, and even seems pleased with himself. What do yall think?

[MidnightAurora]

I just finished reading the 4th book and caught that and I am reading the 5th, but that same paragraph I caught the 1st time around and thus their is a chapter of Catelyn that details the Crag battle and another of Tyrion when someone asked who was at the Crag when Tywin was trying to understand why Robb would go there. I think Tywin was conspiring with Jeyne's mom, father etc.. before the battle or definitely directly after. Hence why Greywind could not stand them and Robb should have taken notice to.

Yes, Tywin should have been more surprised and more Rains of Castamere raged than he was..

I could not remember the chapter, so thanks and glad I was not the only one to see it and think it.

[MidnightAurora]

The same thing can be said for Bolton working with Tywin after the first battle since Tywin does not chase Bolton that much, and some of the things Bolton does/says especially in Arya's chapters in ASOS suggest he has betrayed Robb long before Robb married Jeyne etc..

He stated many times he was venturing North and sent men to Dukendale of his own accord, but made sure to tell people that it came from Robb.. etc..

Roose knew who was loyal to Robb and sent them to their grave sort to speak and hence weaken positions all around and so only those men loyal to him remained and he could go back to the North unchallenged.

If he was not already a turncloak he would not have mentioned he was going to leave for the North so many times in Arya's chapters and would have been more concerned for Robb etc..

I also gathered that he was already a turncloak when Ramsay came to Winterfell and burned it and Ramsay came with Roose's own men. Why would Roose let Ramsay use his own men if he had not betrayed them or betrayed them yet? This was also before the Jeyne thing too.

I also am still wary of Jeyne because she could have comforted Robb in other ways after his news of his brothers reached him instead of bedding him. I too think that was a set up and if Robb was not grieving he would never had bedded Jeyne probably and kept his word. I think the mislead of the broters death was also a plot to get Robb to somehow betray his oath to the Freys. The Freys control the bridge and people coukld not return to the North w/o it or they could via Eyrie/ship the longer way. I liked Robb's plan of how he was going to go up through the grey water moats and attack from three sides.. He was his father's son and had a great mind for military tactic, but unlike Ned too he did not have a knack for political stuff although he was better than his father at it.

[dotheknifefight]

I immediately thought the Westerlings, at least Jeyne's parents, were involved in the Red Wedding plot when I read about Robb wedding her and Tywin's lack of outrage.

[Lord Ronin]

Jaime does note during one of his chapters that Jeyne is very sad about her husbands death. Obviously her family could have plotted with Tywin, but could they have kept her in the dark? And can you reallycount on Robb falling in love with her? Neither Tywin or the westerlings had ever met him...

[A wilding]

On a careful reread it is clear. Sybell Westerling and Rolph Spicer were working with Tywin. Sybil explicilty says so to Jaime in ADwD. Gawen was a prisoner the whole time, so probably knew nothing until afterwards (as Jaime thinks). Jeyne was not in the plot (unless she is the greatest actress Westeros has ever seen), though her mother may have asked her to seduce Robb. Neither was Raynald - Sybell says so, and if he had been he would have surely tamely surrendered to the Freys, confident of later release.

[The Blazed Knight]

I don't think it would require anything more than Tywin's asking to get Frey onto his side. From the Catleyn Chapters in a GOT she says the Walder Frey is a cautious man and would always assure himself of being on the winning side. He would definitely put his stock into Tywin without Robb betraying his marriage pact just because of Tywin's Infamous and fearful reputation in battle tactics. Also, Walder already holds grudges against house Tully which he has made clear.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think only Sybell Westerling and her brother Rolph Spicer working with Tywin. It is very possible that the day Robb married Jeyne, then send a letter to Tywin (by raven or messenger), in an attempt to get back on his good side. Tywin made use of this, because it would give him someone close to Robb who could provide him information about Robb and his plans, which Tywin could use for his advantage.

I doubt that Sybell asked Jeyne to seduce Robb, though she could have plantend some idea's and suggestions in Jeyne's head (in the case of the Westerlings working for Tywin BEFORE the marriage).

I doubt however that the Westerlings were working their betrayel for Tywin before the marriage, because Tywin wouldn't have known that Robb would go to the Crag. Lord Westerling was a captive the entire time, so he wasn't involved either. The four children were too much of a Robb-fan to have been made part of the plan.

Grey Wind only had a problem with Sybell and Rolph, because they immediately acted when the marriage took place, and started their betrayel almost from day 1.

The marriage was also the moment where Robb lost the Freys', as Lord Walder would have made sure to keep a foot in both camps until a winner would become obvious. Of course, the Frey's already had their doubts about Robb after Stannis lost the Blackwater, as some Frey's tell Roose Bolton. The fact is that they would have betrayed Robb no matter what, as long as the terms they were offered would be big enough. The insult Robb did them by promising to marry one of them, and then marrying another, was what pulled them over the line and made it as gruesome as it was.

Roose Bolton, I believe, was already betraying Robb when he had taken Harrenhall. He constantly keeps his own men close, and sends others off to fight, with the chance that they'll die. The things he says to the Frey's when he is being leeched and they are complaining to him about Stannis loosing and the war being lost, Roose is trying to prevent them from doing anything that will disrupt Tywins plans, because they (at least these Frey's) aren't in on the plans yet.

Of course, Roose being married to a Frey, willing to dispose of his bastard son when he no longer has need of him (thus his Frey children becomming his heirs) and Roose becomming the new Lord Paramount of the North would have made very well arguments for Lord Walder (if there was ever any doubt in his mind at all).

[Odon]

I think people on this forum overestimate the plotters ability to manipulate events. It's been shown in this series that the best chessmasters are those who adapt to events, not those who try to control them.

Sybell Westerling suggesting her daughter seduce Robb would have been an incredibly risky move - Robb could have abandoned Jeyne with a bastard in her belly, the Freys could have killed her to stop the marriage, and if Sybell hadn't have been able to strike a deal with Lord Tywin her House would have been wiped out. Even with the plot she arranges with Tywin there are incredible risks; Robb could have discovered the plot, or Jeyne could have become pregnant despite her efforts.

Jeyne's actions are hardly unusual. Consider the course of events; her supposedly secure world as a noblewoman is suddenly disrupted by a surprise attack in the middle of the night, she sees a man she's grown up with torn apart by a direwolf, her fate is thrown into the hands of the savage tree-worshiping Northmen led by the notorious rebel Robb Stark who lets his wolves feast on the bodies of the dead and turns into a direwolf and rapes noblewomen like herself and gods knows what else the Lannister propaganda machine has been saying, only he turns out to be a young, handsome, vulnerable man in her care whose brothers have been tragically betrayed and killed...combine intense fear, then relief she's not dead or violated, then bad boy attraction and Florence Nightingale Effect and likely a touch of Stockholm Syndrome as well.

[A wilding]

Well I would not like to assert than Sybell encouraged Jeyne to seduce Robb, or even that she deliberately pushed them together, but I think it possible. She might, after all have anticipated the entirely plausible explanation of Jeyne's reactions you have given, in which case she had the choice of using them or trying to prevent them.

I think it does require that there was already some tentative communication with Tywin though.

If nothing happens, then there is no issue. Except Robb might be moved to be a bit nicer to House Westerling.

However, the most likely scenario is surely an affair but that Robb does not subsequently marry Jeyne. In which case Jeyne has lost value in the marriage market (though there is another daughter). But the plus is that Robb will treat House Westerling more kindly. Tywin will need to be appeased, but a combination of pleading force majeure and claiming Jeyne was being used to spy on Robb, accompanied with some titbits of useful info gleaned from Jeyne or elsewhere, ought to do it.

The least likely scenario, and quite probably not predicted, is that Robb marries Jeyne. In which case appeasing Tywin is suddenly top priority and the marriage needs to be justified as a plan to bring Robb down, as happened.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I agree it is highly unlikely that Sybell encouraged Jeyne to seduce Robb. This could only have happened, if Twyin and Sybell had been in contact before Robb and Jeyne had slept together. I just wanted to try and described all the options.

I agree with the fact that Tywin was a very good player in the Game of Thrones. His lack of outrage about Robb wedding Jeyne (as observed by Tyrion) can easily be described: Sybells letter claiming loyalty to the Lannisters and the Throne. In Tywins mind, at that point, the Red Wedding was already being planned. It is very possible that he had already contacted the Frey's about it, before deciding to share any news of the events with Tyrion.

It is also unknown how much of a hand Varys has had in the communication of the news. Varys is known for getting information very quickly, so it is possible that, whilst Sybell would send a letter to Tywin as soon as she could to ensure the survival of her house, Varys was comming in posession of the news concerning the Frey's opinions about Robb, at the same time, or a day or so later.

No one (perhaps maybe Jon or Catelyn, who knew Robb the best) could have anticipated that Robb would break his marriage pact with the Freys, because he didn't want to leave a girl behind with a bastard in her belly. It is so much like Ned. Tywin could have guessed it, but it would have been a huge gamble, a huge risk, and for as far as I see it, Tywin doesn't like to gamble. Tywin likes to win, and plays only when he is certain of his moves.

So no, the Westerlings weren't working with Tywin before Robb and Jeyne were wed. They (Sybell and her brother) were most certainly working with Tywin after that wedding though. The four children (one of whom died at the Red Wedding) were innocent in all of this. They supported Robb way too much to ever have been considered to be made a part of the conspiracy, just as how all the Frey's who still had loyalty to Robb left had been conveniently removed from the Twins before Robb and his entourage arrived for Edmure's wedding.

[A wilding]

Pushing Jeyne into Robb's bed would not have been much of a risk for Tywin. What is it to him if a daughter of some minor bannerman dishonours herself? A bastard Stark baby is not likely to cause much of a problem, should it happen.

Though I would imagine that if Robb had not married Jeyne, but had got her pregnant, then her mother would have employed moon tea or something similar to abort the pregnancy.

[Elba the Intoner]

I do believe Sybell was working with Tywin before Robb and Jeyne were wed and that Sybell encouraged Jeyne in a way that Jeyne herself might not have been aware of. Jeyne's grandmother is Maggy the Frog and she knows magic. Kevan mentions at one point that when the Lord Westerling married a Spicer it was way beneath him as they were some foreign family from Essos. The implication is that maybe some sort of love potion or love magic was used to get the guy to marry her. Sybell probably learned a thing or two from Maggy. Or Jeyne may have been in on it too hence Tywin's words that Jeyne is her mother's daughter (reaching for a marriage higher than her station) and Robb is his father's son (always doing the honorable thing). They planned together for a way to get Robb to break his marriage vows with the Freys. What Sybell didn't plan on was the Red Wedding otherwise she would have kept her son who died there away from that. That was Tywin and Walder on their own.