The Purple Wedding - When Plots Collide

[John Suburbs]

If they weren't concerned, why did they ask Sansa for the truth about him? It is clear that Joffrey is a liability to their plans - he might not be abusive towards Margeary (yet) but more importantly, he's utterly unpredictable, way too headstrong and could turn against her at any moment. It makes sense for them to kill him and if they do it it makes sense to do it before Margeary becomes tied to him by marriage. In different circumstances waiting until Margeary bears him an heir they could rule through might work but there is no guarantee she will conceive and carry a son in a sufficiently timely manner and she would be in constant danger throughout. More, the throne is not yet fully secure and if you place a toddler on it it will cut hi to ribbons no matter what family backs him up. Tommen might not be much of a leader either but he only has a couple of years to go and the Lannisters are bound to support him, which is not entirely certain when it would come to Margeary's baby.

I don't think they necessarily wanted Sansa killed either - in fact, I don't think they intended for it to happen. But it was within the realm of possibility that she might in fact die and I don't think Tyrells would mourn her terribly if that were the case. If Sansa escapes as intended her very disappearance makes her guilty. And if she is somewhat caught she will look even more guilty after the net is discovered to contain the poison. Either way, the Tyrells/LF win. Also, Sansa, while certainly valuable is not as important as that - she only becomes crucial when/if the Tyrells decide to pursue their claim to the North years down the line and there is no indication this is their immediate plan or in any way a priority.

Of course they wanted to hear it direct from Sansa because so far all they have are the rumors spread at Bitterbridge by LF's men. But just because Sansa had a bad experience with joffrey does not mean margy will. Joffrey is in fact extremely predictable. He had a reason and a motive to do everything he did to Sansa, not just because he's crazy and likes to hurt people. Her brother was in open rebellion and was in fact winning battles over Lannister armies, and it is after each of those losses that Sansa is abused. In his mind, it makes him look strong before his court, but in reaity it makes him look weak and scared.

With Margy, there is no motive, and all his actions leading up to and even during the wedding indicate he was jazzed to be marrying this 16yo beauty rather than mopey, flakey Sansa. So you have a royal marriage safely in hand and an heir that will cement the Tyrell's to the IT right around the corner (if you don't think Margy could conceive right away with Joffrey, why would it be any better with Tommen?) and you're going to throw that away for what? Maybe the plan will go off without a hitch and the Tryell's avoid suspicion (which is a huge maybe considering all the unpredictable events at the wedding that led to Tyrion taking the fall -- just because that's the way it worked out by no means suggests LF planned it that way all along). And then maybe a marriage offer will be made for Tommen (a more logical assumption, but only if the Tyrells are not implicated -- and lots of people saw LO fiddling with Sansa's hairnet). And even then, you push the possibility of a royal heir at least five years into the future, and all kinds of things can happen in five years.

IMO, to suggest that Lady O killed Joffrey because she was afraid of what he might do to Margy rewrites her character from a hard-nosed political realist (a player) into a nervous old grandmother who lets her mind be swayed by the fears and suspicions of others (a piece). Both Lady O and Margy know full well that highborn ladies often have to suffer loveless even abusive marriages to get what they want, which in this case is a queenship and the enhancement of House Tyrell. And the Lannisters would have no choice but to support Joffrey's trueborn son as king because 1 ) he's still a Lannister and 2 ) he is the legal heir. And besides, one of the goals in the LF/LO pact is the destruction of House Lannister anyway, so that wouldn't be a big concern.

Just found this thread, I had the same thought of how it was Cercei who accidently poisoned Joffrey, which would mean that there would have to be two plots during the same wedding. It seemed to me to be the only reasonable explanation as to how Cercei is so, without a shadow of a doubt sure that it was Tyrion. Because it was! He killed Joffrey by not eating the pie he was meant to eat! That is exactly the kind of reasoning we see her do all the time in her AFFC and DwD chapters. That Tyrion's pie was poisoned also seems to fit with the fact that the wine that Joffrey is drinking seems to change colors.

Interesting possibility that I haven't seen discussed yet: Do you think it could be possible for LF to have been involved in both plots? I.e. plotting with Cercei to kill Tyrion, while at the same time plotting with the Tyrells to kill Joffrey? That way he would be able to make sure that both parties would be using the exact same poison as well being sure that he would be kept out of all suspicion, since neither parties would be able to implicate him without implicating themselves.

The only problem I have with Cersei poisoning the pie is that there is absolutely no mention of it in all of her PoV's in Feast and Dance. Every PoV delves into the thoughts of the character as they arise, and Cersei seems genuinely convinced that Tyrion is guilty of both murders even when thinking (or dreaming) to herself.

Is she in willful denial? Maybe, but she is a strong woman and I find it implausible that at some point during all the ruminations about Tyrion that she wouldn't have admitted to herself the she was the one to have placed the poison that killed her son and that her plan to frame Tyrion went south.

[Mithras]

Surely the plot is very unpredictable despite all the prophecies you give to help us...

[Laughs] Prophecies are, you know, a double edge sword. You have to handle them very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy... In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that.

This SSM is incredible. Admit it guys, Cersei killed Joffrey while trying to save him by killing the supposed valonqar.

Now, her fuckup with Margaery (the supposed Y&MBQ) will cause the death of Tommen.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

This SSM is incredible. Admit it guys, Cersei killed Joffrey while trying to save him by killing the supposed valonqar.

Now, her fuckup with Margaery (the supposed Y&MBQ) will cause the death of Tommen.

I've said this before & had the link to it at one point but that was a while ago. In an interview GRRM says that whoever poisoned Joffrey meant to poison Joffrey. That they intended on it looking like he just choked. So whoever did it 1) had Joffrey as their intended target (which rules out Cersei IMO) & 2) did not expect for anyone to take blame for it or be charged with murder.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Of course they wanted to hear it direct from Sansa because so far all they have are the rumors spread at Bitterbridge by LF's men. But just because Sansa had a bad experience with joffrey does not mean margy will. Joffrey is in fact extremely predictable. He had a reason and a motive to do everything he did to Sansa, not just because he's crazy and likes to hurt people. Her brother was in open rebellion and was in fact winning battles over Lannister armies, and it is after each of those losses that Sansa is abused. In his mind, it makes him look strong before his court, but in reaity it makes him look weak and scared.

With Margy, there is no motive, and all his actions leading up to and even during the wedding indicate he was jazzed to be marrying this 16yo beauty rather than mopey, flakey Sansa. So you have a royal marriage safely in hand and an heir that will cement the Tyrell's to the IT right around the corner (if you don't think Margy could conceive right away with Joffrey, why would it be any better with Tommen?) and you're going to throw that away for what? Maybe the plan will go off without a hitch and the Tryell's avoid suspicion (which is a huge maybe considering all the unpredictable events at the wedding that led to Tyrion taking the fall -- just because that's the way it worked out by no means suggests LF planned it that way all along). And then maybe a marriage offer will be made for Tommen (a more logical assumption, but only if the Tyrells are not implicated -- and lots of people saw LO fiddling with Sansa's hairnet). And even then, you push the possibility of a royal heir at least five years into the future, and all kinds of things can happen in five years.

IMO, to suggest that Lady O killed Joffrey because she was afraid of what he might do to Margy rewrites her character from a hard-nosed political realist (a player) into a nervous old grandmother who lets her mind be swayed by the fears and suspicions of others (a piece).

To the bolded in particular. Surely you are not saying Joff would have been good to Margaery? That's ludicrous. He was happy & sweet when he was first betrothed to Sansa also. Until something pissed him off (nothing Sansa did I might add) He started treating her like crap when Arya disarmed him. The best predictor of future behavior is prior behavior. Joff most definitely would have, at some point, (probably sooner rather than later) started to abuse Marg in the same manner he abused Sansa.

It's better with Tommen because while waiting to conceive there is no fear that said husband will derail at any moment and begin to abuse her...

I couldn't disagree more with the last bolded sentence. Lady O has accomplished 2 things by killing Joff 1) Ensured her granddaughter is marrying a non-abusive, more controllable husband 2) kept Margaery in the position of Queen... how is that being a piece? It has clearly benefitted the Tyrell's politically to have Tommen rather than Joff. Undoubtedly there was some worry for her granddaughters safety but more importantly there was worry about how uncontrollable & irrational Joff was as King.

[John Suburbs]

Absolutely Joff would most likely turn on Margaery at some point, just like the Mad King did to Rhaella, but it wasn't going to happen on the wedding night and probably not for some months or even years later. By then, House Tyrell would have one or more heirs to the throne -- not five or more years in the future like with Tommen, but within a year or so. So there is absolutely no reason for Lady O to risk her entire house -- and let's be clear, Tywin would slay every last Tyrell at KL and in High Garden, plus all the smallfolk if she is caught -- in order to prevent some possible problem in the future. If Joff did start showing any hostility toward Margy, then it could be dealt with as needed, but by then the Tyrell link to the Iron Throne is secure.

And I'm sorry, but it is completely out of character to place the happiness or even safety of Margy above the security of her house. Both Lady O and Margy know the score: highborn ladies must often submit to loveless or even abusive husbands in order to further the interests of their house. This is why Tywin is so upset with his children; they don't seem to understand that, but Margy does.

So from a political perspective, which is Lady O's primary motivation, killing Joffrey runs the incredible risk of being caught should even one person happen to spot this lengthy reach into the chalice, which would effectively end the 8000-year Tyrell dynasty. And on the flip side, it pushes back their plans for control of the crown a good five years and leaves Cersei in KL and Queen Regent. It's a lose-lose.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Absolutely Joff would most likely turn on Margaery at some point, just like the Mad King did to Rhaella, but it wasn't going to happen on the wedding night and probably not for some months or even years later. By then, House Tyrell would have one or more heirs to the throne -- not five or more years in the future like with Tommen, but within a year or so. So there is absolutely no reason for Lady O to risk her entire house -- and let's be clear, Tywin would slay every last Tyrell at KL and in High Garden, plus all the smallfolk if she is caught -- in order to prevent some possible problem in the future. If Joff did start showing any hostility toward Margy, then it could be dealt with as needed, but by then the Tyrell link to the Iron Throne is secure.

And I'm sorry, but it is completely out of character to place the happiness or even safety of Margy above the security of her house. Both Lady O and Margy know the score: highborn ladies must often submit to loveless or even abusive husbands in order to further the interests of their house. This is why Tywin is so upset with his children; they don't seem to understand that, but Margy does.

So from a political perspective, which is Lady O's primary motivation, killing Joffrey runs the incredible risk of being caught should even one person happen to spot this lengthy reach into the chalice, which would effectively end the 8000-year Tyrell dynasty. And on the flip side, it pushes back their plans for control of the crown a good five years and leaves Cersei in KL and Queen Regent. It's a lose-lose.

If she waited until Joff started abusing Marg that gives them motive. They would be suspected the Tyrell's just like they immediately suspected Sansa.

It does help her house politically though. Tommen is younger, sweeter & more controllable even with the downfall of Cersei Joff was a liability. He was not going to listen to Margaery. If the Tyrell's want any influence over the IT they need Tommen.

[John Suburbs]

If she waited until Joff started abusing Marg that gives them motive. They would be suspected the Tyrell's just like they immediately suspected Sansa.

It does help her house politically though. Tommen is younger, sweeter & more controllable even with the downfall of Cersei Joff was a liability. He was not going to listen to Margaery. If the Tyrell's want any influence over the IT they need Tommen.

Suspicion is not proof, and there would be all kinds of ways to kill Joffrey and make it look like a real accident -- some sort of staged event with his crossbow comes to mind.

And you can't say Tommen is controllable. He is now because he's nine, but as long as he is underage he will be controlled by his mother, not his future wife. Once he does come of age, Tommen shows every sign of being a thoughtful and mature leader, as opposed to Joffrey who fails to see the big picture and can be easily manipulated, particularly by a pretty face.

[Mithras]

Sansa specifically mentioned how Joff was playing the good gracious prince in the wedding. She was fooled by his such manners and Joff's cruelty to Sansa was inflamed by Ned's defiance and the victories of Robb. In Marg's case, none of these would happen and Joff would not go mad on Margaery for quite a time.