The Purple Wedding - When Plots Collide

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

But that leaves again the enire coreography of getting the actual poison into Joffrey. Do you think that Littlefinger has told QoT something like this:

"Look, I have hired a pair of jousting dwarves, and Joff is onto this part of the scheme. When these guys has performed, I am absolutely 100 percent confident that Joff and Tyrion will publicly disagree, Joff will be humiliated and so he will take the big chalice down to Tyrions seat and pour it over him. Then it will be refilled and left sort of unattended, as he will be called back to his own seat to cut the big pie. There, right there, is your chance to slip the poison into the chalice. Don't worry about the hundreds of guests or servingpeople in the hall, nobody will be looking at you. Nobody, I can guarantee it.

Now comes the clever part: After cutting the pie, Joff will return to Tyrions seat and have another go at him, first eating his pie and then take a drink from the chalice. And then die from the poison in the wine, and Tyrion will probably be blamed.

And I am absolutely sure it will work out excately this way, because that is the only thing that can happen once the jousters appear. This plan is absolutely fool-proof."

And the QoT responds: "Wow, you are clever, and I believe you when you say you have planned out exactly what will happen. I will do as you say."

But most of the above isn't necessary. An altercation with Tyrion isn't. Spilling the wine isn't. They only need Joffrey to leave his cup unattended for a moment, and for everyone to look another way. So, scene 1:

Littlefinger: The cutting of the wedding pie would be ideal.

Lady Olenna: If only we could be sure the monster leaves the cup for that... No, wait, I got this. Piece of cake, pardon the pun.

Scene 2:

Lady Olenna: By the way, about Joffrey's wedding gift...

Lord Mace: Actually, I thought...

Olenna: Did you? Thank the Seven, I waited for that since the day you were born! But don't trouble yourself, dear. We're giving him a cup.

Mace: ...a shield, all jeweled and shit.

Olenna: A shield? To remind the boy he's a fucking coward and everybody knows it? That's impolite, dear. A chalice, a really big, heavy golden chalice.

Mace: OK. No shield. There's a book...

Olenna: Goodness gracious, I raised a moron. A book? The king is borderline illiterate! As I said, big, tall, seven-sided, decorated with jewels...

Mace: A gift certificate?...

Olenna: Chalice! Big! Heavy! THREE! FOOT! TALL! GET IT?

Mace: I'm not a little boy, I'm Lord of Highgarden, you can't... yes mama, a chalice. Right. Sorry mama.

That assured, Joffrey will leave this monstrosity on the table while cutting the wedding pie (as Margaery will urge him to do). Now, when all the eyes are looking at the royal couple, the pie and then the pigeons, a tall man like Ser Garlan the Gallant will have no problem to inconspicuously drop the poison into the cup. Simple.

[bent branch]

Usually i subscribe to Occam's Razor but I've seen enough evidence to allow for the possibility that more than one plot was afoot, with more than one possible target. What i feel for certain is that the Tyrell's were plotting with LF, and no matter what LF was actually up to, the Tyrell's only goal was to make Margery Queen. LF made it clear to them that Joffrey had to be dealt with if they wanted Margery to be Olenna not Elia 2.0. I just can't see how any theory that involves the Tyrell's having another goal is logical. Why would they kill Tyrion but spare Joffrey? What is gained in that case? Before you say "well duh they get the north" then why put the poison on Sansa's head? Look the Tyrell's had a specific goal and it wasn't to get Sansa or her claim. They want the throne and the power behind the throne. The Tyrell's made a play for ultimate control of Westeros. There's no hedging their bets and getting Sansa as a consolation prize and they don't give a damn about Sansa and all she's been through. The Tyrell's are taking their shot and if they miss they all die. They'd frame a thousand Sansa's if that's what it took, and if not for LF she'd be a head on the Traitors Walk by now.

Actually, I disagree with the idea that the Tyrells didn't want Sansa. I think they did want Sansa, and not for her claim. Willas is the future lord of Highgarden and is unmarried. His younger brother, Garlan, is married and has his first child on the way. I think the Tyrells were having a hard time finding someone of the proper birth to marry the crippled Willas. We've already seen how hard it is to find a spouse for individuals who are "defective" in some way, think Lollys and Tyrion. I think they judged Sansa as being desperate enough that she would willing marry the crippled Willas.

ETA: Also Brienne's difficulty in finding a spouse.

[John Suburbs]

I appreciate the effort u put in, and this was a well thought out theory but I have to disagree mainly bc this theory would imply that killing Tyrion and stealing Sansa was the goal when I think the evidence suggests otherwise. First of all goal number one is to improve the lot of House Tyrell while protecting QoT's 2.0. This isn't accomplished by killing anyone other than Joffrey. Still, they could have planned that move for later and focused on killing Tyrion at the wedding, but then i ask the question why bring the poison in a hairnet worn by Sansa? Why involve her at all? Only reason not to just carry it in yourself is to either lay blame on Sansa for killing Tyrion or lay blame on them as a couple for killing Joffrey. No matter which they clearly considered Sansa getting blamed as a possibility they could live with meaning that it's illogical to consider anyone other than Joffrey the target of this plot. As far as Cersei attempting to poison Tyrion with pie that's not impossible, but hadn't Tyrion cleared out Pycelle's supply of poisons by then? Sure he could have a stash somewhere hidden, but no matter what Cersei did i think a plot where Joffrey wasn't the target lacks for any evidence.

How does Joffrey's death improve the lot of House Tyrell? If anything, it is diminished.

With Joffrey: Margaery is queen, soon to be the Queen Mother, and Cersei is shipped back to Casterly Rock or wherever.

Without Joffrey: Margaery is merely betrothed to Tommen while Cersei remains Queen Regent for another eight years at least.

And bringing the poison in on Sansa makes more sense if Tyrion is the target because she will be right next to Tyrion the whole time. No need to lift it off Sansa, surreptitiously stroll it across the dias to wherever the wine happens to be and then make your way back. With Tyrion as the target, you have him, Sansa, the poison and the pie all in the same area. And I suspect the hairnet was part of LF's plan to off Tyrion long before the Tyrells joined the plot -- their motive to kill Tyrion did not emerge until after he married Sansa and Robb et all were killed at the RW. So with the poison on Sansa, there was a ready-made carrier to bring it into the feast right near its intended target no matter who the eventual poisoner turned out to be.

Usually i subscribe to Occam's Razor but I've seen enough evidence to allow for the possibility that more than one plot was afoot, with more than one possible target. What i feel for certain is that the Tyrell's were plotting with LF, and no matter what LF was actually up to, the Tyrell's only goal was to make Margery Queen. LF made it clear to them that Joffrey had to be dealt with if they wanted Margery to be Olenna not Elia 2.0. I just can't see how any theory that involves the Tyrell's having another goal is logical. Why would they kill Tyrion but spare Joffrey? What is gained in that case? Before you say "well duh they get the north" then why put the poison on Sansa's head? Look the Tyrell's had a specific goal and it wasn't to get Sansa or her claim. They want the throne and the power behind the throne. The Tyrell's made a play for ultimate control of Westeros. There's no hedging their bets and getting Sansa as a consolation prize and they don't give a damn about Sansa and all she's been through. The Tyrell's are taking their shot and if they miss they all die. They'd frame a thousand Sansa's if that's what it took, and if not for LF she'd be a head on the Traitors Walk by now.

At best, Joffrey is a potential future problem that can be dealt with at a later date, most likely after a royal heir is born. That is what would truly cement House Tyrell to the IT. There is absolutely no evidence that Joffrey was angry or hostile toward Margy in any way and there is no evidence that either Margy or LO were even the slightest bit concerned about her safety. Maybe someday that would be a problem, but not yet.

Tyrion, meanwhile, is an immediate threat. I'm not sure why you think Sansa with the poison doesn't jive with Tyrion as the target. Check above to see why I think it makes more sense to do it that way to kill Tyrion rather than Joffrey. Control of the north is no small consideration: it places more than half the kingdom into Tywin's hands, and his seat is only a few leagues north of Highgarden. Therefore, Tyrion must be disposed of right away and it must be done at a very public event in order to create the disturbance needed to get Sansa away -- no matter how the poison is brought in or who is killed, Sansa would be implicated by her disappearance.

As you say, the Tyrell's chief goal is to make Margaery queen. Well, she was a queen with joffrey. Why screw that up and then a) hope an offer is made for Tommen, and b ) even if that happens, they now have to wait a good eight years before she has any real authority through Tommen?

And no, the Tyrell's knew they couldn't get Sansa as soon as the Willas plan was uncovered, so the next best thing is to make sure Tywin doesn't get her either.

[Rebecca Wiseman]

Cersei hated Tyrion that's an obvious truth. But who wants Sansa away from Tyrion more then the Tyrells? Petyr Baelish. In order for Sansa to fit into his plans she needs to be a widow. Kill Joffrey fits Tyrell motives. Kill Tyrion fits Petyr's motives.

[walkingWITHcersei]

Actually, I disagree with the idea that the Tyrells didn't want Sansa. I think they did want Sansa, and not for her claim. Willas is the future lord of Highgarden and is unmarried. His younger brother, Garlan, is married and has his first child on the way. I think the Tyrells were having a hard time finding someone of the proper birth to marry the crippled Willas. We've already seen how hard it is to find a spouse for individuals who are "defective" in some way, think Lollys and Tyrion. I think they judged Sansa as being desperate enough that she would willing marry the crippled Willas.

ETA: Also Brienne's difficulty in finding a spouse.

I didn't mean they didn't want her but that would just be icing on the cake. Once Tywin blocked their play to marry her to Willas she was no longer a prize. If they win the Game of Thrones they get all of Westeros. Might even be easier if she's dead along with all they Lannister's.

[walkingWITHcersei]

Actually, I disagree with the idea that the Tyrells didn't want Sansa. I think they did want Sansa, and not for her claim. Willas is the future lord of Highgarden and is unmarried. His younger brother, Garlan, is married and has his first child on the way. I think the Tyrells were having a hard time finding someone of the proper birth to marry the crippled Willas. We've already seen how hard it is to find a spouse for individuals who are "defective" in some way, think Lollys and Tyrion. I think they judged Sansa as being desperate enough that she would willing marry the crippled Willas.

ETA: Also Brienne's difficulty in finding a spouse.

I didn't mean they didn't want her but that would just be icing on the cake. Once Tywin blocked their play to marry her to Willas she was no longer a prize. If they win the Game of Thrones they get all of Westeros. Might even be easier if she's dead along with all they Lannister's.

[John Suburbs]

Sorry, disagree. Kill Joffrey does not fit Tyrell's motives. In fact, a dead Joffrey is in direct contrast to Tyrell motives because it weakens their hold on the IT.

Kill Tyrion fits both Baelish and Tyrell motives because it prevents the Lannisters from getting the north and, in LF's case, puts the key to the north under his direct control.

But most of the above isn't necessary. An altercation with Tyrion isn't. Spilling the wine isn't. They only need Joffrey to leave his cup unattended for a moment, and for everyone to look another way. So, scene 1:

Littlefinger: The cutting of the wedding pie would be ideal.

Lady Olenna: If only we could be sure the monster leaves the cup for that... No, wait, I got this. Piece of cake, pardon the pun.

Scene 2:

Lady Olenna: By the way, about Joffrey's wedding gift...

Lord Mace: Actually, I thought...

Olenna: Did you? Thank the Seven, I waited for that since the day you were born! But don't trouble yourself, dear. We're giving him a cup.

Mace: ...a shield, all jeweled and shit.

Olenna: A shield? To remind the boy he's a fucking coward and everybody knows it? That's impolite, dear. A chalice, a really big, heavy golden chalice.

Mace: OK. No shield. There's a book...

Olenna: Goodness gracious, I raised a moron. A book? The king is borderline illiterate! As I said, big, tall, seven-sided, decorated with jewels...

Mace: A gift certificate?...

Olenna: Chalice! Big! Heavy! THREE! FOOT! TALL! GET IT?

Mace: I'm not a little boy, I'm Lord of Highgarden, you can't... yes mama, a chalice. Right. Sorry mama.

That assured, Joffrey will leave this monstrosity on the table while cutting the wedding pie (as Margaery will urge him to do). Now, when all the eyes are looking at the royal couple, the pie and then the pigeons, a tall man like Ser Garlan the Gallant will have no problem to inconspicuously drop the poison into the cup. Simple.

Garlen would be the only one who could have poisoned the wine, but I just don't think he did it. If he did, then he's the most duplicitous character in the book, and the best actor.

He offers nothing but praise for Tyrion at every turn, even when he's dancing alone with Sansa. He admires his courage, his mind, the fact that he deals with being a dwarf so well. An act? Maybe, but it's an awfully good one.

Plus, there is the fact that he warns Tyrion that Joffrey is about to dump the wine on his head. If he was part of the plan, why would he act to prevent the very actions that are necessary in order for it to go off properly?

Garlen just doesn't fit, IMHO, and there is no way the QoT could have possible reached the top of the chalice to drop the poison in.

[Mulled Wino]

Sorry, disagree. Kill Joffrey does not fit Tyrell's motives. In fact, a dead Joffrey is in direct contrast to Tyrell motives because it weakens their hold on the IT.

Explained in the text. There was already a deal for Tommen. I don't understand how you are arguing exact textual reasoning that makes complete sense.

Tyrion could have been poisoned any time, Joff, on the other hand has a food taster who wouldn't be present for a 77 course meal. They Tyrells get nothing from poisoning Tyrion and it doesn't prevent anything. The Lannisters can just marry her to anyone else they want.

[Maid So Fair]

You say that it makes no sense for the Tyrells to kill Joff to protect Margeary and that she is actually in a stronger position married to him than now that she's married to Tommen instead. While this premise is debatable in the first place, putting that aside for a second, are you not ALSO arguing that it was their plan to kill Joff at the wedding anyway, just a little bit later? It either makes sense for the Tyrells to kill Joff or it doesn't, I don't think you can have both at the same time.

Sansa wearing the hairnet and delivering the poison is admittedly unnecessary from purely practical point of view as the Tyrells/Olenna are presumably rich and smart enough to get their own Strangler and it's a tiny object easily hidden - it's not like any of them is going to be searched.

However, it makes perfect sense for Sansa to very ostentatiously have the murder weapon on her where everyone present can see it, if you are using her as the patsy. If she gets caught, either during her escape or because of the Tyrells incriminating her on purpose in case something went wrong during the actual poisoning, she is apprehended with the murder weapon on her body (that everyone has clearly seen) and of course she has every reason to hate Joff so also a readily believable motive. She's friendless and does not come across as especially politically savvy either and can't incriminate the real culprit as she doesn't know who it is. If she tried, no one will believe her against Olenna. And if everything goes according to plan and Sansa in fact escapes, her disappearance at the opportune moment will be damning in and of itself.

What might be true is that Littlefinger is playing the players here. It might be that Sansa was always meant to be his prize for helping to orchestrate the poisoning. But what if Sansa was not meant to go the the Eyrie with LF but was instead meant to be taken to Highgarden by either LF or Dontos himself? Or, since this might be too bold a defiance of his new ally, he might have promised to take her there after things have settled down, but is playing his own game in the meanwhile? If this is the case then Olenna's comments make sense as she would actually be expecting to see Sansa again.

Sansa wanting to commit suicide at this point makes little sense from any perspective - if she was going to do it she would have when Joff was tormenting her daily or on the eve of her forced arranged marriage. Why would the Tyrells or anyone believe that she wants to do it now?

[walkingWITHcersei]

Explained in the text. There was already a deal for Tommen. I don't understand how you are arguing exact textual reasoning that makes complete sense.

Tyrion could have been poisoned any time, Joff, on the other hand has a food taster who wouldn't be present for a 77 course meal. They Tyrells get nothing from poisoning Tyrion and it doesn't prevent anything. The Lannisters can just marry her to anyone else they want.

Thank you! Killing Joffrey wasn't beneficial to the Tyrell's??? How could argue that when they actually did kill him! It's this simple. The Tyrell's were content to have Margery married to a King and share power with the Lannister's. They knew Cersei would never work with them but maybe Tywin would. They made there play for the North. They'd have gained a huge piece of the pie and been content with that. The moment Tywin blocked that plan the stakes were raised. They could no longer get Sansa so much so that they set her up to be the fall guy with Tyrion if the gods were good. They had to believe she would be accused which in Kings Landing means condemned. I got a little off topic but the notion in the OP that Sansa was the poisoner was what started this latest back and forth. No one talks about it but that old hag set up Sansa to die a traitors death. Her head would be on a spike dipped in tar if moms ol'chum Lord Baelish didn't want to... Uh hum do some impaling himself. I doubt the Tyrell's care really, they did well enough with Tyrion, though they certainly don't trust LF to hide her forever. Better to kill her and try again with someone else down the road. The North isn't going anywhere and it's winter. With no large forces left against them the North can be dealt with later.

[John Suburbs]

Explained in the text. There was already a deal for Tommen. I don't understand how you are arguing exact textual reasoning that makes complete sense.

Tyrion could have been poisoned any time, Joff, on the other hand has a food taster who wouldn't be present for a 77 course meal. They Tyrells get nothing from poisoning Tyrion and it doesn't prevent anything. The Lannisters can just marry her to anyone else they want.

You're saying there was already a deal between the Lannisters and the Tyrells that, when Joffrey is killed at the wedding, Margaery would then marry Tommen? Who agree to that?

I can't find any references to a food taster for Joffrey.

And yes, a dead Tyrion with Sansa still in Lannister hands is useless. That's why they did it at the wedding, to provide cover for her escape. By that logic, Joffrey could be killed any time too, so why bother waiting until the wedding at all?

And once again we have a blank statement that "the Tyrells gain nothing from killing Tyrion" without ever addressing the myriad reasons I've laid out. You don't think the Tyrells care that Tywin would control half the kingdom with a Lannister in Winterfell? You don't think they would rather have Sansa with LF, rather than with the Lannisters, given that there was no way the Tyrells could get her for themselves? You don't think LF had to get rid of Tyrion, now MoC, before he uncovered all the shady dealings?

You say that it makes no sense for the Tyrells to kill Joff to protect Margeary and that she is actually in a stronger position married to him than now that she's married to Tommen instead. While this premise is debatable in the first place, putting that aside for a second, are you not ALSO arguing that it was their plan to kill Joff at the wedding anyway, just a little bit later? It either makes sense for the Tyrells to kill Joff or it doesn't, I don't think you can have both at the same time.

Sansa wearing the hairnet and delivering the poison is admittedly unnecessary from purely practical point of view as the Tyrells/Olenna are presumably rich and smart enough to get their own Strangler and it's a tiny object easily hidden - it's not like any of them is going to be searched.

However, it makes perfect sense for Sansa to very ostentatiously have the murder weapon on her where everyone present can see it, if you are using her as the patsy. If she gets caught, either during her escape or because of the Tyrells incriminating her on purpose in case something went wrong during the actual poisoning, she is apprehended with the murder weapon on her body (that everyone has clearly seen) and of course she has every reason to hate Joff so also a readily believable motive. She's friendless and does not come across as especially politically savvy either and can't incriminate the real culprit as she doesn't know who it is. If she tried, no one will believe her against Olenna. And if everything goes according to plan and Sansa in fact escapes, her disappearance at the opportune moment will be damning in and of itself.

What might be true is that Littlefinger is playing the players here. It might be that Sansa was always meant to be his prize for helping to orchestrate the poisoning. But what if Sansa was not meant to go the the Eyrie with LF but was instead meant to be taken to Highgarden by either LF or Dontos himself? Or, since this might be too bold a defiance of his new ally, he might have promised to take her there after things have settled down, but is playing his own game in the meanwhile? If this is the case then Olenna's comments make sense as she would actually be expecting to see Sansa again.

Sansa wanting to commit suicide at this point makes little sense from any perspective - if she was going to do it she would have when Joff was tormenting her daily or on the eve of her forced arranged marriage. Why would the Tyrells or anyone believe that she wants to do it now?

Killing Joffrey may become necessary at some point if and when he poses a threat to Margy. But by the time of the wedding, there is no indication at all that he is angry or contemptuous of her in the least. There is also no indication that either Margy or Lady O are even the slightest bit concerned. Remember, he mistreated Sansa in direct response to the military losses his army suffered at Robb's hands: at Whisper Wood, Oxcross, etc. Each defeat for Joffrey would result in some kind of punishment for Sansa until Tyrion put a stop to it. The same catalyst does not exist with margy, but there is every reason to expect that he would get bored with her someday and start going all Mad King on her. That would be the time to kill him because, by that time, one or more royal heirs would be in place and they would cement the Tyrell's link to the IT even more than a royal marriage. Situations change.

And as I explained before, the poison in the hairnet makes the most sense if Tyrion is the target because you have both poison and victim right next to each other at the feast, rather than poison on one side, chalice on another, Joffrey somewhere else...

Also, I don't think it's in anyone's best interests to have Sansa killed. That would throw the north into turmoil because, for the first time since the Age of Heroes, there is no direct Stark heir to Winterfell. With her alive, the north can still be united and then leveraged to wrest control of the IT. But it is possible that Lady O might have expected Sansa to be arrested and executed for the murder, only to be double-crossed by LF -- but I think she's smarter than that and would realize the if LF could get hold of her he would.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

I read an interview by GRRM who said the person/s involved in killing Joffrey intended for it to appear as he "choked on his pie or whatever" so no one meant to set Tyrion & Sansa up. They intended for Joffrey's death to go off without a hitch & for it to appear it was just an accident. Also that the intended recipient was indeed Joffrey & not Tyrion

ETA: Forgive me for not posting the link I'll find it later & post it if anyone is interested in reading it.

[John Suburbs]

I read an interview by GRRM who said the person/s involved in killing Joffrey intended for it to appear as he "choked on his pie or whatever" so no one meant to set Tyrion & Sansa up. They intended for Joffrey's death to go off without a hitch & for it to appear it was just an accident. Also that the intended recipient was indeed Joffrey & not Tyrion

ETA: Forgive me for not posting the link I'll find it later & post it if anyone is interested in reading it.

Yes, he was referring to a question about the show, which is veering wildly from the book at this point.

But even if we take his statement at face value, I would ask him: if they wanted to make it look like he choked on pie, why did they poison the wine? There is no guarantee that he would be eating pie and drinking wine at the same time -- it's likely, but not certain -- whereas a poisoned pie leaves no question.

[walkingWITHcersei]

I really think the Tyrell's would have been content to marry Sansa to Willas and share power in kings landing (as long as Tywin was alive...Cersei is no match for any serious players in the game on her own). Once Tywin blocked that play they had no chance to get Sansa so they sacrificed her to eliminate Joffrey. If Tyrion goes down and somehow Sansa survives they'd take another crack at her, but you can't think they sent her in with the poison clearly displayed for all to see unless they were at least willing to accept the likelihood she'd be found guilty of poisoning Joffrey. I think they expected her to go down with Tyrion, and LF surprised them by getting her clear of the city. Its presented to us that LF chose that night to free her bc the wedding would provide a distraction but in truth he chose that night bc if he delayed she'd be arrested. They told her they'd sneak her out during the bedding but Dontos was there waiting to take her when Joffrey died. Sure he could have been smart enough to ad lib and grab her at the perfect moment but does Dontos seem that quick? While drunk? LFs henchman was where LF told him to be when he told him to be bc he knew the Tyrell's were throwing her under the bus. Why would they set up Tyrion and expect to get Sansa if she wasn't implicated? They didn't know of Tywin's impending death? Surely he'd have just married her to another Lannister. The Tyrell's gain nothing by setting up Tyrion alone but cripple the Lannister's if both go down together!

[John Suburbs]

I still don't see the Tyrells wanting Sansa arrested or dead or anything. Sure, a marriage to Willas would have been the best option, but once that shipped sailed the next best option was to let LF have her.

A dead Sansa leaves the North in chaos for generations, which means there is no counter balance to the power that Tywin has amassed through the takeover of the Riverlands and the pact with the Freys (unstable as that may be). With LF in control of the Vale and the north (and possibly the Riverlands, if he can get rid of Edmure and his baby), that at least gives Highgarden the leverage to declaw the Lannisters.

Ultimately, though, it leaves LF as the most powerful player in the game, which may cause problems for Highgarden later. But the immediate threat is Tywin, so Lady O would probably just let future generations deal with Lord Petyr.

Of course, all that is moot now that Tywin is dead and the Ironmen are now threatening Oldtown.

[Maid So Fair]

Killing Joffrey may become necessary at some point if and when he poses a threat to Margy. But by the time of the wedding, there is no indication at all that he is angry or contemptuous of her in the least. There is also no indication that either Margy or Lady O are even the slightest bit concerned. Remember, he mistreated Sansa in direct response to the military losses his army suffered at Robb's hands: at Whisper Wood, Oxcross, etc. Each defeat for Joffrey would result in some kind of punishment for Sansa until Tyrion put a stop to it. The same catalyst does not exist with margy, but there is every reason to expect that he would get bored with her someday and start going all Mad King on her. That would be the time to kill him because, by that time, one or more royal heirs would be in place and they would cement the Tyrell's link to the IT even more than a royal marriage. Situations change.

And as I explained before, the poison in the hairnet makes the most sense if Tyrion is the target because you have both poison and victim right next to each other at the feast, rather than poison on one side, chalice on another, Joffrey somewhere else...

Also, I don't think it's in anyone's best interests to have Sansa killed. That would throw the north into turmoil because, for the first time since the Age of Heroes, there is no direct Stark heir to Winterfell. With her alive, the north can still be united and then leveraged to wrest control of the IT. But it is possible that Lady O might have expected Sansa to be arrested and executed for the murder, only to be double-crossed by LF -- but I think she's smarter than that and would realize the if LF could get hold of her he would.

If they weren't concerned, why did they ask Sansa for the truth about him? It is clear that Joffrey is a liability to their plans - he might not be abusive towards Margeary (yet) but more importantly, he's utterly unpredictable, way too headstrong and could turn against her at any moment. It makes sense for them to kill him and if they do it it makes sense to do it before Margeary becomes tied to him by marriage. In different circumstances waiting until Margeary bears him an heir they could rule through might work but there is no guarantee she will conceive and carry a son in a sufficiently timely manner and she would be in constant danger throughout. More, the throne is not yet fully secure and if you place a toddler on it it will cut hi to ribbons no matter what family backs him up. Tommen might not be much of a leader either but he only has a couple of years to go and the Lannisters are bound to support him, which is not entirely certain when it would come to Margeary's baby.

I don't think they necessarily wanted Sansa killed either - in fact, I don't think they intended for it to happen. But it was within the realm of possibility that she might in fact die and I don't think Tyrells would mourn her terribly if that were the case. If Sansa escapes as intended her very disappearance makes her guilty. And if she is somewhat caught she will look even more guilty after the net is discovered to contain the poison. Either way, the Tyrells/LF win. Also, Sansa, while certainly valuable is not as important as that - she only becomes crucial when/if the Tyrells decide to pursue their claim to the North years down the line and there is no indication this is their immediate plan or in any way a priority.

[walkingWITHcersei]

Ur assuming they knew LF intended to take her which i don't believe bc they made the deal with him before Tywin blocked their move by marrying Tyrion to her. If they knew LF was going to take her then they wouldn't have tried to sneak her away to Highgarden. Remember they were plotting to remove Joffrey before we ever meet Olenna in KL. I cannot envision any scenario where Tyrion gets arrested Sansa is cleared and Tywin allows her to marry a non Lannister. If Tywin had been dead already then they would have blamed Tyrion and snuck her off to marry Willas. The fact they put that hair net on her says exactly what they intended to happen to Sansa. It's not like people were being strip searched. The poison could have been brought in an infinite number of ways. Using her makes Tyrion look even more guilty (they may have guessed but couldn't count on Cersei having Tyrion arrested on the spot like that). There simply is no scenario where Tyrion gets blamed, Sansa does not, and they can still marry her to Willas. At least not with Tywin alive at that moment. Olenna knows this so they offered up the sacrificial lamb... Or bird or wolf whatever. LF running off with her was just as big a surprise to the Tyrell's as anyone else. Though i suspect they knew immediately LF was behind it they simply don't care. It no longer affects them bc they're no longer looking to increase their power through the North. They are now officially part of the "win it all or die" group of players. Why go for just the North when u can have all of Westeros. If the Tyrell's "win" they earned it, but that'd be the most unlikely ending I can imagine. If that's what he meant by bittersweet ending i want money back.

[Maid So Fair]

Ur assuming they knew LF intended to take her which i don't believe bc they made the deal with him before Tywin blocked their move by marrying Tyrion to her. If they knew LF was going to take her then they wouldn't have tried to sneak her away to Highgarden. Remember they were plotting to remove Joffrey before we ever meet Olenna in KL. I cannot envision any scenario where Tyrion gets arrested Sansa is cleared and Tywin allows her to marry a non Lannister. If Tywin had been dead already then they would have blamed Tyrion and snuck her off to marry Willas. The fact they put that hair net on her says exactly what they intended to happen to Sansa. It's not like people were being strip searched. The poison could have been brought in an infinite number of ways. Using her makes Tyrion look even more guilty (they may have guessed but couldn't count on Cersei having Tyrion arrested on the spot like that). There simply is no scenario where Tyrion gets blamed, Sansa does not, and they can still marry her to Willas. At least not with Tywin alive at that moment. Olenna knows this so they offered up the sacrificial lamb... Or bird or wolf whatever. LF running off with her was just as big a surprise to the Tyrell's as anyone else. Though i suspect they knew immediately LF was behind it they simply don't care. It no longer affects them bc they're no longer looking to increase their power through the North. They are now officially part of the "win it all or die" group of players. Why go for just the North when u can have all of Westeros. If the Tyrell's "win" they earned it, but that'd be the most unlikely ending I can imagine. If that's what he meant by bittersweet ending i want money back.

Maybe LF didn't name his price at the very beginning and the Tyrells weren't aware it was Sansa he wanted? Overall, however, I think that this is plausible except for the fact that it seems a step backwards by LF: Why try to curry the Tyrell's favour and make them his allies if he is planning to betray them immediately afterwards? That will surely negate any progress he might have made with them so far and if he just wanted Sansa, he could have smuggled her out of the King's Landing pretty much any time he chose.

[Chrodarcniss]

Just found this thread, I had the same thought of how it was Cercei who accidently poisoned Joffrey, which would mean that there would have to be two plots during the same wedding. It seemed to me to be the only reasonable explanation as to how Cercei is so, without a shadow of a doubt sure that it was Tyrion. Because it was! He killed Joffrey by not eating the pie he was meant to eat! That is exactly the kind of reasoning we see her do all the time in her AFFC and DwD chapters. That Tyrion's pie was poisoned also seems to fit with the fact that the wine that Joffrey is drinking seems to change colors.

Interesting possibility that I haven't seen discussed yet: Do you think it could be possible for LF to have been involved in both plots? I.e. plotting with Cercei to kill Tyrion, while at the same time plotting with the Tyrells to kill Joffrey? That way he would be able to make sure that both parties would be using the exact same poison as well being sure that he would be kept out of all suspicion, since neither parties would be able to implicate him without implicating themselves.

[Sans A Stark in Winterfell]

The scroll bar on this thread is very small... That's all I have to say for now.