Big question about the GNC?

[Shireen Shireen]

You also forgot the letter Jon got at the end of Dance could have been from one of the Northern conspirators. The letter could have been a ploy to bring Jon south and when he arrives at Winterfell he finds The Manderlys, Glovers, Umbers and Stannis instead of the Boltons and Freys.

In which case they would be testing him to see if he comes?

[LordStoneheart]

Have you read the first GNC thread linked in the compendium of theories link? I think the OP goes over this question, and in the continuation threads.

[Northernmonkey]

Have you read the first GNC thread linked in the compendium of theories link? I think the OP goes over this question, and in the continuation threads.

I have read this and they do address it but I don't think their answer makes sense. This is the explanation on that thread:

If Jon's legitimization and role in the will is revealed too early, the northmen risk that Stannis and/or Bolton will get wind of it and take Jon out. But if they keep it under wraps, they can push Stannis and Bolton's forces into bleeding each other, with Jon and his secret untouched until the time is right and the northerners have the advantage.

But at the time of Robb's death, Stannis hasn't even reached the wall yet. There's no way anyone can know that Stannis will end up fighting the Bolton's. So what reason would they have not to tell Jon?

[Sir Noone Sword Of The Day]

sorry if its a dumb question (i don't care anyway) but what exactly is the great northern conspiracy?

im sure I've heard it many times just i haven't heard it been placed into context yet...

[rivergirl]

I think it's because they're putting their money on Bran and/or Rickon, rather than Jon. As much as the fandom (me included) likes him, the Northern Lords are almost definitely going to pick Ned's trueborn sons over his bastard, just because that's how their society works. It's not unlikely that they're planning to make either Bran or Rickon the King with Jon as their advisor, since anyone who's spent time at Winterfell knows that they (Rickon especially) are much more likely to trust Jon than anyone else. Plus, that cuts out the complication of having to legitimise anyone.

So by that line of reasoning, they would want to find Bran/Rickon first and then tell Jon. That way, nobody in the Night's Watch could find out they boys are alive unless it's actually going to benefit the North. We can't know how much or how little the Manderlys, Glovers and Umbers trust Jon, but considering Wyman's fondness for biding his time, i wouldn't be surprised if he was reluctant to tell anyone of any plan unless he knew it would work.

On a purely speculative note, it could also be because they know he's Ned's son and would have some serious qualms with abandoning the NW, so they'd prefer to leave Jon out of the whole succession thing unless he's the last option.

[Northernmonkey]

I think it's because they're putting their money on Bran and/or Rickon, rather than Jon. As much as the fandom (me included) likes him, the Northern Lords are almost definitely going to pick Ned's trueborn sons over his bastard, just because that's how their society works. It's not unlikely that they're planning to make either Bran or Rickon the King with Jon as their advisor, since anyone who's spent time at Winterfell knows that they (Rickon especially) are much more likely to trust Jon than anyone else. Plus, that cuts out the complication of having to legitimise anyone.

So by that line of reasoning, they would want to find Bran/Rickon first and then tell Jon. That way, nobody in the Night's Watch could find out they boys are alive unless it's actually going to benefit the North. We can't know how much or how little the Manderlys, Glovers and Umbers trust Jon, but considering Wyman's fondness for biding his time, i wouldn't be surprised if he was reluctant to tell anyone of any plan unless he knew it would work.

On a purely speculative note, it could also be because they know he's Ned's son and would have some serious qualms with abandoning the NW, so they'd prefer to leave Jon out of the whole succession thing unless he's the last option.

So in that case it's not really a theory - it's just what we're told by Manderley in the books.

[SkaggCannibal]

sorry if its a dumb question (i don't care anyway) but what exactly is the great northern conspiracy?

im sure I've heard it many times just i haven't heard it been placed into context yet...

You're in for an interesting read then, just look up great northern conspiracy. There is a parte four which gives in one post (the first) what the GNC is, don't know if that's also true for the other parts. But I do encourage you to read it all critically, as it can be a bit overly-enthusiastic in linking pieces together.

[Ryan Baratheon]

Forgetting about tom o sevens being with edmure, telling him about stoneheart,

And 2 high ranking men from riverrun heading to the wall

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm sure this has been discussed a lot of times, but for me there's a massive flaw in the grand northern conspiracy - why wouldn't they tell Jon about it?

It makes absolutely no sense not to tell Jon. Firstly, because you need to find out whether he's willing to forsake his vows or not (if not the whole things pointless). Secondly, because the longer you leave him at the wall the more likely it is that he's going to get killed by wildlings or others.

If Jon was a vital part of a massive plan to reclaim the North, the first thing you'd do would be go and find him, talk to him and take him somewhere safe. It's completely unrealistic that nobody would tell him.

This is actually a pretty easy one: It's because Stannis arrived at the Wall. The other northern lords aren't actually at the Wall with Stannis, so obviously it's easier for them to spread information to and from each other under the radar. The danger level that Jon's in, when Stannis and his men are actually at the Wall, is not comparable to any danger the other northerners would be in. I don't get the "it's too dangerous to tell Jon, but not the other lords?" argument. Uh, yeah, it is. Because the other northern lords don't have Stannis sitting quite literally on top of them.

If Stannis is at the Wall and a raven or a force shows up to declare Jon King in the North, what happens? Stannis sees Jon as a threat the same way he saw Robb as one, and he might fight Jon, take him hostage or turn on the northerners. So they're doing what they are: keeping it under wraps, even from Jon himself, until Stannis and the Boltons (they're still in the mix too, with thousands of Freys) are no longer a threat. I don't think it's a huge coincidence that, say, the mountain clan leaders don't show up at the Wall until after Stannis has left.

I have read this and they do address it but I don't think their answer makes sense. This is the explanation on that thread:

If Jon's legitimization and role in the will is revealed too early, the northmen risk that Stannis and/or Bolton will get wind of it and take Jon out. But if they keep it under wraps, they can push Stannis and Bolton's forces into bleeding each other, with Jon and his secret untouched until the time is right and the northerners have the advantage.

But at the time of Robb's death, Stannis hasn't even reached the wall yet. There's no way anyone can know that Stannis will end up fighting the Bolton's. So what reason would they have not to tell Jon?

Robb's death does not mean that his will is instantaneously transmitted all the way to the Wall. That takes time. They can't exactly send the will as a .PDF attachment to Jon's Gmail.

[Northernmonkey]

Robb's death does not mean that his will is instantaneously transmitted all the way to the Wall. That takes time. They can't exactly send the will as a .PDF attachment to Jon's Gmail.

But it does mean that there's a big gap between Robb dying and Stannis going to fight the Bolton's. The GNC as it's described can't have been invented until Stannis goes to fight the Bolton's. So what were the Northerners planning during that time?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

But it does mean that there's a big gap between Robb dying and Stannis going to fight the Bolton's. The GNC as it's described can't have been invented until Stannis goes to fight the Bolton's. So what were the Northerners planning during that time?

But again, Robb dying doesn't mean that his will is going to be transmitted without any significant time gap. It's possible that they were planning to go to Jon (in person, not wanting to risk a raven), but Stannis beat them up there. As it is, the GNC is an exploitation of the situation as it turned out: Stannis showed up at the Wall and could be funneled into fighting the Boltons (if I remember it correctly, it was the northerners who pushed him to take Winterfell). We see other plans that ended up adapting drastically from the original (Illyrio/Varys/Aegon/Dany comes to mind), so why is it a huge problem for this one to have altered?

Without having a more solid timeline of what happened and when, it's hard to pin down the moving parts. But that's a pretty silly reason to toss out the entire theory.

[Northernmonkey]

This is actually a pretty easy one: It's because Stannis arrived at the Wall. The other northern lords aren't actually at the Wall with Stannis, so obviously it's easier for them to spread information to and from each other under the radar. The danger level that Jon's in, when Stannis and his men are actually at the Wall, is not comparable to any danger the other northerners would be in. I don't get the "it's too dangerous to tell Jon, but not the other lords?" argument. Uh, yeah, it is. Because the other northern lords don't have Stannis sitting quite literally on top of them.

If Stannis is at the Wall and a raven or a force shows up to declare Jon King in the North, what happens? Stannis sees Jon as a threat the same way he saw Robb as one, and he might fight Jon, take him hostage or turn on the northerners. So they're doing what they are: keeping it under wraps, even from Jon himself, until Stannis and the Boltons (they're still in the mix too, with thousands of Freys) are no longer a threat. I don't think it's a huge coincidence that, say, the mountain clan leaders don't show up at the Wall until after Stannis has left.

I guess that's a pretty good explanation. It's interesting you mention the mountain clans because they probably know about Bran and Rickon still being alive. The Liddle's certainly do - does anyone remember if there was a Liddle at the wedding?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I guess that's a pretty good explanation. It's interesting you mention the mountain clans because they probably know about Bran and Rickon still being alive. The Liddle's certainly do - does anyone remember if there was a Liddle at the wedding?

Maybe you should be asking why the mountain clans among Stannis's men are the ones calling for him to take Winterfell and

to execute Theon for the murders of "Bran and Rickon" when they know damn well the boys are alive. I actually think they mostly want to kill Theon to shut him up at this point.

It's also strongly implied that Alysane Mormont was already en route to or even at Deepwood Motte when Stannis arrived; that at the very least shows the northerners were already moving to take back territory from external enemies, in this case, Asha Greyjoy. And Alysane was probably acting on orders from Mummy; I doubt she made the call to move on her own.

[SkaggCannibal]

This is actually a pretty easy one: It's because Stannis arrived at the Wall. The other northern lords aren't actually at the Wall with Stannis, so obviously it's easier for them to spread information to and from each other under the radar. The danger level that Jon's in, when Stannis and his men are actually at the Wall, is not comparable to any danger the other northerners would be in. I don't get the "it's too dangerous to tell Jon, but not the other lords?" argument. Uh, yeah, it is. Because the other northern lords don't have Stannis sitting quite literally on top of them.

If Stannis is at the Wall and a raven or a force shows up to declare Jon King in the North, what happens? Stannis sees Jon as a threat the same way he saw Robb as one, and he might fight Jon, take him hostage or turn on the northerners. So they're doing what they are: keeping it under wraps, even from Jon himself, until Stannis and the Boltons (they're still in the mix too, with thousands of Freys) are no longer a threat. I don't think it's a huge coincidence that, say, the mountain clan leaders don't show up at the Wall until after Stannis has left.

The other Lords don't have Stannis sitting quite literally on top of them? No? The Mountain Clans, Mormonts, Glovers are, according to the GNC, all in communication with the conspiracy while also having Stannis "on top of them". And what about the Cerwyns, Tallharts, Dustins and Ryswells, who apparently have been told while Roose Bolton was right on top of them? Only for Jon this isn't possible? Maybe. Or maybe these people just aren't all in on it because it is way too dangerous to tell that much people.

Forgetting about tom o sevens being with edmure, telling him about stoneheart,

And 2 high ranking men from riverrun heading to the wall

And this is supposed to be proof of King Jon? I'm placing tom o sevens and LS into the BwB vs Frey-conflict rather than in the GNC. Going to the Wall may be on Edmure's call to inform Jon about the will (or it may not), but it's doubtful it is a co-ordinated plan within a GNC.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The other Lords don't have Stannis sitting quite literally on top of them? No? The Mountain Clans, Mormonts, Glovers are, according to the GNC, all in communication with the conspiracy while also having Stannis "on top of them". And what about the Cerwyns, Tallharts, Dustins and Ryswells, who apparently have been told while Roose Bolton was right on top of them? Only for Jon this isn't possible? Maybe. Or maybe these people just aren't all in on it because it is way too dangerous to tell that much people.

And by the time Stannis made contact with those parties, the plan had likely already been laid out, and Stannis had no good reason to be suspicious of them, especially when they started fighting for him. I think the bulk of the plan was crafted before Stannis joined up with them (that might even be why they joined him, if it was part of the larger strategy), and if the northerners just happen to stick by themselves in the camp, are Stannis's men going to pry too deeply into them? I don't see how this is in any way comparable to someone openly declaring Jon the king while Stannis and his men are at the Wall. That's not exactly the same thing as secret plotting, which we already know they're capable of (see Manderly, Wyman, who's already kept quite a damn bit from both the Boltons/Freys and Stannis).

[SkaggCannibal]

Openly declaring him King? No, I'm talking about secretly telling him about the existence of the will. That's something they surely should be capable of if they can do it with other Lords. (a trustworthy Lord telling him in person I think the GNC suggests?)

[butterbumps!]

Apple,

The thrust of the GNC is simply that all of the Northern factions know that at least 1 of 3 Stark heirs are out there (Jon, Rickon, Bran), and that knowing this, they have been plotting to overthrow the Boltons, right?

The core of the GNC doesn't posit that they are all working together or that they have a single objective in terms of which Stark to rally behind, right?

I've said this before, but while I agree the North is intent on flushing Boltons and restoring Starks, I don't think they're all unified in terms of plotting together or wrt which Stark.

I think the clans who show up at the Wall were looking for Bran, the Glovers and Mormonts (and now Alys Karstark) are interested in Jon, the Umbers and Manderlys in Rickon-- at least, I think that's roughly how it's divided. If this is accurate, it gives another reason why the clansmen haven't revealed anything to Jon-- if they were told Bran was to show up at the Wall and all of a sudden Stannis is behaving as though he has no idea, it conceivably appears Jon and or Stannis might have found him and is looking to usurp Bran's claim. The clans staying to assess Jon might not be about looking at him as a leader, but to make sure he has nothing to do with Bran's disappearance before alerting him to the fact that Bran is out there, now missing.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Apple,

The thrust of the GNC is simply that all of the Northern factions know that at least 1 of 3 Stark heirs are out there (Jon, Rickon, Bran), and that knowing this, they have been plotting to overthrow the Boltons, right?

The core of the GNC doesn't posit that they are all working together or that they have a single objective in terms of which Stark to rally behind, right?

I've said this before, but while I agree the North is intent on flushing Boltons and restoring Starks, I don't think they're all unified in terms of plotting together or wrt which Stark.

I think the clans who show up at the Wall were looking for Bran, the Glovers and Mormonts (and now Alys Karstark) are interested in Jon, the Umbers and Manderlys in Rickon-- at least, I think that's roughly how it's divided. If this is accurate, it gives another reason why the clansmen haven't revealed anything to Jon-- if they were told Bran was to show up at the Wall and all of a sudden Stannis is behaving as though he has no idea, it conceivably appears Jon and or Stannis might have found him and is looking to usurp Bran's claim. The clans staying to assess Jon might not be about looking at him as a leader, but to make sure he has nothing to do with Bran's disappearance before alerting him to the fact that Bran is out there, now missing.

ETA: Never mind, I'm an idiot.

I think it's possible for there to be some discrete moving parts. But by the end, I think there will be unification around "a" leader, whether it's Jon or Rickon or both (e.g. Rickon with Jon as his regent).

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

^^ I agree, butterbumps! I think one of the core principles is that we have disparate groups who all appear to be working for the Starks, but only just now may be coming into contact with each other. Each group is operating with a specific set of information, but they more or less all have the same goal or eradicating the Bolton presence, restoring House Stark and (in the case of the Riverlands posse) taking revenge on Freys and Lannisters. I don't think anyone seriously thinks that the Riverlands faction is in contact with Manderly or the mountain clans yet, but it cannot be denied that Ryger and Grell are en route to the Wall, which could bring about the intersection of at least two factions. It's at those points of intersection, IMO, that things really get interesting.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Openly declaring him King? No, I'm talking about secretly telling him about the existence of the will. That's something they surely should be capable of if they can do it with other Lords. (a trustworthy Lord telling him in person I think the GNC suggests?)

And what good is telling him that when there isn't anything actionable to be done with it? What is Jon supposed to do with that information? And in that time, that just furthers the risk that it will be found out. Seems the wiser thing to do is to sit on it, work on neutralizing Stannis and the Boltons and then tell him when 1. it is safe to do so and 2. it's not just words.

^^ I agree, butterbumps! I think one of the core principles is that we have disparate groups who all appear to be working for the Starks, but only just now may be coming into contact with each other. Each group is operating with a specific set of information, but they more or less all have the same goal or eradicating the Bolton presence, restoring House Stark and (in the case of the Riverlands posse) taking revenge on Freys and Lannisters. I don't think anyone seriously thinks that the Riverlands faction is in contact with Manderly or the mountain clans, but it cannot be denied that Ryger and Grell are en route to the Wall, which could bring about the intersection of at least two factions. It's at those points of intersection, IMO, that things really get interesting.

I agree with this. I've never seen anyone argue that Wyman Manderly is working with the Blackfish, or whatever. Rather it looks like a multi-theater, cell-based groups of schemes that will eventually converge at some point.