The Dornish Master Plan

[A Bastard Snow]

Step One:Get your brother killed

Step Two:Alienate your daughter for over a decade

Step Three:Get your son killed

Step Four:???

Step Five:Profit

Doran greatest planner ever.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

OK, I finally watched it. He has some really interesting ideas, and some really absurd ones.

I think there is possibly some truth in some of the things he's put together, and some things he's just grabbed out of thin air.

[Ali Colak]

I’m extremely sorry but, though it explains several anomalies, such as Doran’s lackluster aid to the Beggar Targs, the fact that he considers supporting them in the first place, Tywin's wrotting corpse (a theory which I support), and the constant presence of the Cinnamon Wind; this makes no sense and has a lot of holes.

The connection between Oberyn and the faith of the seven is minimal. The Dornish in general seem quite irreligious, and Oberyn’s liaison with a Septa seems more do to his iconoclastic and adventurous spirit than any interest in the faith. Oberyn is an adventurer, interested in fucking (both men and women), fighting and anything that’s out of the ordinary and exotic. Not everyone can truthfully say that they’ve been with a Septa, and I’m sure the rather exotic experience appealed to Oberyn. There’s no reason for us to conclude that any of what he did in his youth (his sleeping with an Oldtown whore was probably concurrent to his studies at the citadel) had anything to do with a conspiracy of any sort. And the Dornishman crying out for a deity isn’t proof of religiosity, or an interest in religion. In truth, moments when they are in trouble or in pain are the only moments when a lot of people think of religion at all.

The martell line isn’t exactly free of incest, as one of their ancestors, Daenerys the elder is a Targaryen born of incest. It would be difficult to establish any claim through her since, a: She was younger than her brother Daeron, and B: she never took the throne herself and (even assuming that Doran could bring the crown to agree that Dornish laws on primogeniture apply to the whole of westeros) no one would agree to such an ex post facto reversal of the line of succession. And if we take the age of the line and the relations to the Targaryens as a source of a claim, than the Arryns have a greater claim than any Martell.

The Brave Companions are a pack of brutes, with little talent and less intelligence. The idea that they might leave the wealthier side for the less wealthy, especially when the less wealthy side was –militarily-- giving Tywin a run for his money, especially if some news of Robb’s attack on the Westerlands had managed to reach them; is not inconceivable. There is an SSM somewhere, where GRRM remarks that the Brave Companions are a low grade company. There is little proof that any of them are truly interested in the Faith of the seven, and Qyburn’s interest in the faith and the Sparrows is purely within his role as the Master of Whisperers. Though I do think Marwyn has some game up his sleeve, this interpretation doesn’t fit.

On Quentyn’s quest, there were already some roomers pointing to the fact that Daenerys was in the area of Slaver’s Bay. It was possible that the rumors were wrong, and that they mightn’t be able to reach her on their first try, but this is not a proof that they received aid from Marwyn. The fact that one of his friends was standing over Quent with a sword could indicate that he was trying to protect him (which sounds rather stupid considering the situation, but people can't think clearly under pressure), or even that he thought of giving him the gift of mercy. And if the Martells so dislike the Yronwoods, and the two are still in a state of enmity, then why would Doran let them in on some sort of conspiracy?

Brown Ben Plum is a mixture of Braavosi, Summer Islander, Ibbenese, Qohorik, Dothraki, Dornish and part Westerosi, you could just as well attach some significance to all the other parts of his heritage as his Dornish blood... There is little reason to believe in any sort of connection between the second sons, Ilyrio, Oberyn, Brown Ben Plum, Marwyn and all the others, other than the fact that they’ve been sort of geographically close, not that we have any idea of how geographically close, as we don’t know the chronology of any of their travels in the east. Steffon Baratheon was also in the free cities, perhaps contemporary with the time Marwyn was there, and fitting him into any kind of conspiracy would be difficult.

Overall, there are houses older, more popular, and more powerful and with greater claims than the Martells; if this is Doran’s master plan, then he is truly an idiot. Slight proximities and similarities do not a conspiracy make. My apologies if I’ve been too harsh.

[joluoto2]

Some points I could buy, but most is farfetched. Still enjoyed the video, always like a great crackpot. The connections to the Sellswords and Marwyn are very loose.

I think Doran is vary anxious to find out if Aegon is real or not. He is betting on Daenerys (since he doesn't know Quentyn is dead), but if he was to find out his long lost nephew really is alive...

[No Song so Sweet]

I really liked it, well many parts of it. What I think is good/likely from it:

(Green=like, Black=neutral, Red=dislike)

1. The masterplan must be much more than what is revealed

2. The masterplan consists of: Kill Tywin, Amory Lorch, the Mountain, Remove Jamie, Cersei, Tommen

3. Oberyn was preparing for the masterplan, and was also grooming his children for the plan

4. History, Law, Dragons and the 7 as the bullet points of the Dornish plan.

5. The Brave Companions & Qyburn connection. Awesome theory part!

6. I don't like how they portray Marwyn as their puppet and not independent. Alleras is with Marwyn studying, he/she is not controlling him.

7. The sacrilege of septs to make the Faith stronger is actually pretty nonsensical and a big stretch.

8. The Oberyn killing Tywin part finally convinced me in this context.

9. The connections to the narrow sea.

10. I don't think that the Martells see the Targaryens as enemies, but the theory is intriguing...

11. The theory that they falsely supported Viserys to make him bait for other players of the game of thrones is nice.

12. The connection to Mirri Maz Duur is a big stretch, and the fact that she "hatched" the eggs with a spell. I don't think that is the first attempt of the Martells of having dragons.

13. The connections with the Second Sons and Brown Ben Plumm. Another awesome theory part.

14. It is illogical that Mero, a mercenary, would sacrifice himself just to force Daenerys' hand to help the cause of his employer.

15. The Yronwoods are enemies of the Martells makes a lot of sense.

16. I don't believe that Quentyn is still alive. Their theory is still possible, but the quest could have just gone wrong. Quentyn is still alive is slightly crackpot IMO, although it technically could be true.

17. I really don't think that they invaded Aemon's dreams. ASoIaF is not Inception.

18. That Dorne is playing to win FIRST place, as GSS about Doran.

19. That they will use Dornish Law for Myrcella and for Arianne.

20. The connection from Oldtown brothels=>Marwin is a logical leap.

ILLYRIO's PLAN

· I don't know what Illyrio's plan is, but it is a decent suggestion that it has to do with hatching dragons and prioritizing taking Volantis.

· I think it is evident that Jorah was Illyrio's guy before he switched sides and became Dany's guy. It is also really slimy that he tried to get her to Asshai to hatch the eggs.

· Illyrio being faithful to the Tiger faction and the Lord of Light is a good catch.

· Illyrio controlling the Quentyn quest and the Yronwoods... I don't know. It is very tempting to believe.

· The rivalry with between Zahrina (Windblown) and Brown Ben Plumm (Second Sons). Very nice catch!

[A Bastard Snow]

The thing is Doran didnt do any of that stuff.Arya did more to avenge Elia then Doran/Oberyn did...

[oursisthefury69]

We know the Dornish master plan, it was to marry Arianne to Viserys and raise their banners. Once this plan )which was the only thing keeping Oberyn restrained fell through) he went to Kings Landing to seek his revenge with reckless abandon the first chance he got. I agree with him planning to draw out the Mountain and obtain his revenge in someway before he came to KL and received the perfect opportunity via the Purple Wedding which he obviously didn't anticipate, and think that he probably planned to do so by poisoning Tywin, but its not necessarily ingenious to understand that Oberyn actually came to Kings Landing with a plan

[Michael Stark Thenextwolf]

Watch out, each subsequent video gets more and more ridiculous.

^some good ideas but really just goes too far

[the conquoring bastard25]

actually the idea that the brave companions are under dornish control isn't that far fetch is you remember that in book three Tyrion is listing all of the Red Vipers deeds in the past 20 years since the fight with the lord Yronwood. After he spent sometime in Oldtown at the citadel he joined the second son and fought in the disputed lands only to form his own company of his own. We never learn the name nor do we learn what happened to them when Martel comes back from exile. So it's not that far fetched.

The part about the Viper poisoning Tywin is on par, as I think they missed the fact that with Martel bringing his bastard paramour it would make it impossible for them to seat with the rest of the wedding party which is perfect so that suspicion wouldn't fall on him for Joff's death. I believe it was him that picked the poison and probably contacted his contacts in the free cities to procure it. IF you remember also that the fat man deals in rare Jewels and that a black ameymthes were on board Dany's ships when she landed in Slavers Bay.Makes you wonder if the fat man isn't on of the Dornish contacts in the free cities. Also as Littlefinger was the one helping the Tyrells it would stand to reason that he was the one that would find out from the fat man as he did start his career in the free cities as a custom agent.

[The Kinkslayer]

I don't think that yhe Martells have a plan at all, the Dornish are half Cornish, half Spaniards and half Italian (yes, 3 halves), none of which are known as particularly cunning

[horizon]

I don't think that yhe Martells have a plan at all, the Dornish are half Cornish, half Spaniards and half Italian (yes, 3 halves), none of which are known as particularly cunning

wtf. That is on the edge of being reported.

Anywhoo, Doran has a plan. If it is good remains to be seen.

But what if Tywin died out of poison and not from the crossbow? It would stirr uproar. Cersei would blame the Tyrell's I assume. The Tyrell's would blame the red viper/Dorne. It would mean chaos... exactly what Varys wants.

[White Ravens]

Dornish plan = wait everyone else out.

What could possibly go wrong with a plan like that?

Dornish plan = ironclad.

[Epyon]

There are pieces I like, and pieces I don't:

What I did like:

-Marwin being of much greater importance than thus far revealed. I'd tend to think he is working independently, rather than subservient to the Martells, however. This video actually makes me think that Marwin could even be one of the -major- game players.... and maybe even a Warg/greenseer of some kind, given the bits about him/Aemon.

-MMD being the one who hatches the Dragons, via blood magic... and basically having nothing to do with Dany. Interesting, and I'll buy it, though only 2 lives where sacrificed (Drogo/Baby) for two dragons... Does Viserys count as the third (since a dragon is named after him)... or does the horse really count?

-Oberyn planning to fight the Mountain for poisoning/murdering Tywin. I'm buying this.

-Dorne making tons of political connections across the narrow sea... I just don't really feel like the supporting explanations where all that great

-The Brave Companion thing was ...interesting... Not sure I buy it, but a cool theory nonetheless. Also interesting was the "fighting" over Tyrion... again, not sure I buy it, but was interesting

-Dorne recognizing Illyrio as a major player/opponent in the game of thrones, and actively playing against him is an interesting thought.

That puts the big time players at:

Doran/Dorne

Marwin (the citdadel?)

The Iron Bank (Littlefinger? Faceless Men?)

Daenarys

Stannis (arguably Melissandre's puppet)

Bloodraven

House Tyrell

Little Finger

Illyrio (Varys + Aegon)

Euron (The Ironborn)

Victarion (The other half of the Ironborn)

Cersei (Tommen + Royal Army)

High Septon (Faith Militant)

Roose Bolton (arguably a lesser player)

Tyrion (who is still just a "lesser piece" right now, but I think will probably completely outplay/usurp whoever tries to wield him in the game)

Faceless Men (Ironbank? Basically they are a giant wildcard right now, since they can apparently kill anybody)

[No Song so Sweet]

That puts the big time players at:

Doran/Dorne

Marwin (the citdadel?)

The Iron Bank (Littlefinger? Faceless Men?)

The Iron Bank is now affiliated with Stannis. Littlefinger has no connection to the IB except getting huge loans from then on behalf of the crown while he was master of coin.

Daenarys

Stannis (arguably Melissandre's puppet)

What? Blasphemy! :) Stannis is nobody's puppet and he has proven it.

Bloodraven

House Tyrell

Little Finger

Illyrio (Varys + Aegon)

Euron (The Ironborn)

Victarion (The other half of the Ironborn)

Cersei (Tommen + Royal Army)

High Septon (Faith Militant)

Roose Bolton (arguably a lesser player)

Tyrion (who is still just a "lesser piece" right now, but I think will probably completely outplay/usurp whoever tries to wield him in the game)

Faceless Men (Ironbank? Basically they are a giant wildcard right now, since they can apparently kill anybody)

IMO the undisputed fact that the video brought to my attention was that the plan to marry Arianne to Viserys just CANNOT BE the whole masterplan that Doran has in place. He MUST have a much grander plan. The other theories on the video may be true or false, but this is so logical that it must be true.

[Buie]

Illyrio's plan really makes sense when you think back to the part when Arya is running around under the Red Keep and hears him and Varys talking.

"This is no longer a game for two players" really makes you think.

[northwesterner]

No, I think weak Doran is weak, he needs to strike now, while the Lannisters are weak.

[Justin Amey]

It is a shame that this whole plan turned out to be false by the spoiler chapter of Arianne. Doran had no idea that Aegon was alive the whole time. and most of the plan involved putting Arianne and Aegon together. So now most of Dornish master plan make no sense. Sorry :dunno:

(Theories are meant to be tested, and this one took a gut punch)

[Golden Rose]

I love this guy so much

[sj4iy]

It is a shame that this whole plan turned out to be false by the spoiler chapter of Arianne. Doran had no idea that Aegon was alive the whole time. and most of the plan involved putting Arianne and Aegon together. So now most of Dornish master plan make no sense. Sorry :dunno:

(Theories are meant to be tested, and this one took a gut punch)

I have to say that I never thought it made much sense to start with.

[oursisthefury69]

IMO the undisputed fact that the video brought to my attention was that the plan to marry Arianne to Viserys just CANNOT BE the whole masterplan that Doran has in place. He MUST have a much grander plan. The other theories on the video may be true or false, but this is so logical that it must be true.

Words without an attempt at meaning. How is it "so logical that it must be true." His whole plan was marrying Viserys to Arriane, then when he found out Viserys died he sent Quentyn to court Danaerys, while Oberyn went to Kings Landing. We know the plan, we witnessed the failing of the backup plan, now Arriane may or may not marry Aegon.