Aegon is Rhaegar's son

[Malchyor]

It is a possible theory but I think Ned's resistance to talk about Jon's mother makes this very unlikely. Maybe he could have reservations at first but there is no reason not to tell Jon his true parentage as hes older and he went his whole life having his wife thinking he was with another woman. Ned protected this secret fiercely and you just don't do that unless their is a VERY good reason to keep it a secret, like life and death reasons. He doesn't protect the secret of Jon's parents just to protect his brothers honor, maybe for a while but not later on.

Ned is a man of honor, and given that the theory in this thread deals with the possible fact that Jon is the Bastard of lady Dayne and Benjen Stark, he's actually saving both of them the dishonor of the act by not telling.

I agree this is possible.

[No Song so Sweet]

These are issues that I think have been adequately addressed in prior threads, but perhaps not for a while. I will try to summarize my recollection of the explanations of these issues that you raise--specifically how Varys gets his hands on a boy that mirrors Aegon as being close in age and looks and why the "mummer's dragon" reference almost certainly means that Aegon is (f)Aegon, i.e., a fake-Aegon. I will also address a point you made above about why Varys "lied" to Kevan as he lay dying.

The most persuasive theories that I have seen about the identity of (f)Aegon's parents suggest that his father is probably Illyrio and his mother is probably Illyrio's second wife, who is theorized as Varys's sister. These theories also suggest that one or the other of (f)Aegon's parents is a Blackfyre descendant, while the other parent perhaps is a descendant of Brightflame (or maybe Bittersteel). Such parentage would explain why (f)Aegon has Targ looks--he is essentially a Targ descendant, just not from the "current" line. Of course, his age being close to Aegon's age would be a "happy" coincidence. Once Illyrio and Varys realize that Aegon is dead and died in a way that makes identification impossible, they are able to come up with the "long con" to raise this child to believe he is the real Aegon. That plan probably really took off once they were able to place (f)Aegon with Jon Connington and convince him that this boy is the real Aegon (wishful thinking can be a powerful deceiver and Illyrio and Varys are good at convincing people of things they want to be true). Jon Connington knew the Targs well enough to raise Aegon in the way he would have been raised if a true Targ. This theory generally explains all of the questions you seem to have about (f)Aegon's background and why he is "exactly" as you expect Aegon to be. If Illyrio and Varys could not produce a boy who they could present as "exactly" as one would expect Aegon to be, they would have come up with a different plan. But events fell just right for them and they have taken advantage of these circumstances.

Now compare that theory to the pisswater prince story that Varys is telling. As you point out, this story does not hold up. While Varys might have access to a child with these looks on Essos, where people of Valaryan descent live, Pisswater Bend is an unlikely place to find a random Tanner's son with Targ looks, and a non-Targ looking baby would have been noticed fairly quickly. As you point out, Varys could not know that right after the "baby switch" the Mountain would crush the baby's skull. So Vary's story of how Aegon's life was saved makes no sense, while the alternative theory holds up.

The mummer's dragon also fits perfectly only if Aegon is really (f)Aegon. Varys was a mummer (an actor), and basically still is--everything he does is an act. (f)Aegon is Vary's "puppet" or "cloth dragon." Who else could be the mummer's dragon other than (f)Aegon. Now some have argued that even if he is the "real" Aegon, he could still be the mummer's dragon because he is still the dragon of Varys, the mummer. But that theory seems quite problematic to me. Varys basically puts on an act all the time, but are people suggesting that the one time that Varys is playing it straight is when he presents Aegon as the true son of Varys? So Aegon is still the mummer's dragon even though the only time Varys is not behaving as a mummer is when he presents Aegon as real? I don't think that theory holds up. (f)Aegon is the mummer's dragon because Varys is putting on an act presenting (f)Aegon as Aegon when he is really (f)Aegon. No other explanation of the meaning of the mummer's dragon prophesy that I have seen theorized holds up.

Finally, Varys would "lie" to Kevan because Varys basically deceives everyone. While Varys may not tend to tell outright lies, he tells "half truths" all the time. He says things that on their face may be true, but says them in a way to give others a false impression. This way of speaking is a particular type of lying, and it is a type of lying that Varys is very comfortable with, and does it all the time. So the statement that "Varys does not lie" is not really true in the sense that Varys lies in this particular manner all the time. As to why bother to deceive a dying man, there are multiple possible explanations. Perhaps the most obvious is that GRRM needed Varys to say what he said to suggest that (f)Aegon might be Aegon because it was too early for the readers to know that Aegon is really (f)Aegon. But as far as "in-story" explanations, there are possibilities. One is that there could be others listening (little birds) who are supposed to believe the lie. Another is that to live a lie, one needs to live it 24/7--no taking off time to tell the "truth" even to a dying man if the facade is going to be maintained. But go back and look at the actual words said to Kevan. Varys never says that this Aegon is the son of Rhaegar. Varys does not even talk about birthright by blood. Varys tells Kevan that this boy is the "real" Aegon because he was raised properly to rule. Varys focuses on the boy's qualities as a leader, not his blood. So Varys does not care whether Kevan believes the boy is the son or Rhaegar or not, Varys wants Kevan to understand that Varys's Aegon is the proper ruler because of how he was raised and the leadership qualities he has. Is that really the speech to give Kevan if Varys wanted to emphasize how he saved the "real" Aegon in the war and brought him back now? No, if (f)Aegon really were Aegon, that speech would have been very different.

I know all that parts of the theory but i still think there are three problems with the theory that Aegon is fake.

1) there is absolutely no evidence (granted, there is not much evidence that he is real either).

2) The Varys lie.

3) Aegon seems to be exactly what you would expect him to. This is not limited to looks, but expands to personality and temperament as well. I think it would be difficult to just get Illyrio's son or any other Valyrian looking boy and sell him the idea that he is Rhaegar's son convincingly and consistently for 15 years. JonCon & Co and Aegon himself should not be able to find out about that plot. If he is Illyrio's son, Illyrio must treat him as a protected child whose foster parent is JonCon instead of as his trueborn son. Then on top of that they must just sell a golden lie out of nothing, after all that grand plan comes into fruition, and sell the world that the baby swap happened when in fact there was nothing similar to that. The orchestration of this grandeuse a plan seems unlikely IMO. In general, i would say problem 3 in short is that my character judgement of Varys, Illyrio, Aegon and JonCon doesn't match with any of the fAegon theories.

4) Not really a problem per se just something that is used as supportive when it isn't: the "mummer's" dragon and the cloth pole with the dragon, as i explained earlier. It is just taken to mean something else than it actually says and is only one of the possible interpretations. Remember also that there was a puppet play (orchestrated by Varys) during Cersei's reign, where the dragon consumes the lion. This just means that Varys is the kingmaker of Aegon and raises support for him. It doesn't mean that he is true or false.

I'm sorry but this theory is nonsense, you are trying too hard.

If Jon was the son of Brandon and Ashara then what harm would it be to reveal that fact? Ned & Jon's lives would have been far easier without the unnecessary lie.

Also what evidence is there that Varys has been involved in this plot with Ned? We know Varys knows of Aegon in Essos and has revealed his part in the ploy to Kevan Lannister, if this was Lyanna's son which Ned rescued and supposedly handed off to Varys in this vast secretive plot then why is Eddard so mistrusting of Varys when they meet in Kings Landing in AGOT?

Well now I won't bother with trying to find an explanation for that, as the theory has already been disproved. I think that there could be other reasons except not spoiling the memories, but it doesn't matter. I have already answered the second part, Ned doesn't even need to know that the baby ended up with Varys. For example maybe Varys was trusted by Rhaegar and Lyanna but Lyanna didn't tell Ned about him and she just gave the baby to someone else to give it to him, instead of giving it to him directly. Or maybe Varys was in disguise. Or some other Targaryen loyalist and then that guy/gal teamed up with Varys. Or any other number of things that didn't happen, because the timing of the theory doesn't fit.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Aerys probably sent Tywin to Lys to find a Targ descendant for Rhaegar to marry. He was there looking for Serra basically. But illyrio married her first. Although there were probably others.

Ummm... I hate to say this but the first part of what you said is what I said. That Tywin was in Lys to make a marriage pact. But to ensure Cersei's accent to the throne as queen. To check this he had her sold into a pillow house. Sold Varys to either the mummers or had him cut to remove a possible threat to his daughter and her future children.

Now as the second part there is no way that Serra was married to Illyio at the time of Tywin's visit to Lys. She first has to spend some time as a whore. Remember the titans bastard Mero, the comment about having fucked Dany's twin in a pillow house in Lys? Then there is the this little piece Illyio said that dany reminded him of his second wife.

The timeline is wrong for Serra to have been sold into the pillowhouse before Tywin. If that was the case, why did it take so long for them to have a kid. Not to mention that Illyio still has to make contact with Varys and become respectable.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I know all that parts of the theory but i still think there are three problems with the theory that Aegon is fake.

1) there is absolutely no evidence (granted, there is not much evidence that he is real either).

2) The Varys lie.

3) Aegon seems to be exactly what you would expect him to. This is not limited to looks, but expands to personality and temperament as well. I think it would be difficult to just get Illyrio's son or any other Valyrian looking boy and sell him the idea that he is Rhaegar's son convincingly and consistently for 15 years. JonCon & Co and Aegon himself should not be able to find out about that plot. If he is Illyrio's son, Illyrio must treat him as a protected child whose foster parent is JonCon instead of as his trueborn son. Then on top of that they must just sell a golden lie out of nothing, after all that grand plan comes into fruition, and sell the world that the baby swap happened when in fact there was nothing similar to that. The orchestration of this grandeuse a plan seems unlikely IMO. In general, i would say problem 3 in short is that my character judgement of Varys, Illyrio, Aegon and JonCon doesn't match with any of the fAegon theories.

4) Not really a problem per se just something that is used as supportive when it isn't: the "mummer's" dragon and the cloth pole with the dragon, as i explained earlier. It is just taken to mean something else than it actually says and is only one of the possible interpretations. Remember also that there was a puppet play (orchestrated by Varys) during Cersei's reign, where the dragon consumes the lion. This just means that Varys is the kingmaker of Aegon and raises support for him. It doesn't mean that he is true or false.

My responses--following your numbering scheme:

1) How could there be evidence? This factor is neither an argument for or against either theory.

2) Again with the Varys lie? I explained why it is just as likely that Varys intentionally misled Kevan. What makes you think GRRM would not have Varys mislead a dying man, especially when it is important to keep the reader from knowing for sure whether Aegon is real or not?

3) I don't think this argument proves as much as you think it does. Varys and Illyrio were con-men--professional con-men. Jon Con was not in the con--he was conned. So most of the raising of (f)Aegon was done by Jon Con--who would raise him exactly as would be needed to have him behave as expected. This outcome is exactly what you would expect if Jon were raising the boy he believed to be the real Aegon, and the boy was led to believe from a young age who is supposed to be. Illyrio is rich and can pull off many tricks with his money to pull off the con. But a long con is just that--a plan that takes years to pull off but the pay-off is great enough to justify the risks. The fact that the looks work are what made Varys and Illyrio start the long con in the first place--a lucky coincidence.

4) I explained why your theory of the mummer's dragon does not work. Varys cannot be referred to as the mummer but the one time he is not acting and telling the truth is about Aegon, but the vision still sees Aegon as the mummer's dragon. It just makes no sense.

[WeaselPie]

Why is Ned so tortured by a promise he supposedly kept? Just sayin'.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Why is Ned so tortured by a promise he supposedly kept? Just sayin'.

Why is Ned so tortured by keeping the promise, you ask. Because it cost him his a great deal to keep that promise--he had to lie to everyone, let the world believe he was unfaithful to his wife when they were newly married, raise his sister's son as his own bastard even though Ned knows that Jon is really the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. This lie caused great pain to his wife and to Jon--two people for whom he cares deeply. His integrity essentially has been permanently besmirched because he is raising a "bastard" son, which is not consistent with what people believe about his character generally. The promise forced him to choose between competing values that were important to him--and ultimately the risk to Jon if the truth came out and Ned's love for his sister caused him to keep the promise, but the painful consequences of keeping this promise is something that would torture most people who have the values that Ned is described to have had.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Ummm... I hate to say this but the first part of what you said is what I said. That Tywin was in Lys to make a marriage pact. But to ensure Cersei's accent to the throne as queen. To check this he had her sold into a pillow house. Sold Varys to either the mummers or had him cut to remove a possible threat to his daughter and her future children.

Now as the second part there is no way that Serra was married to Illyio at the time of Tywin's visit to Lys. She first has to spend some time as a whore. Remember the titans bastard Mero, the comment about having fucked Dany's twin in a pillow house in Lys? Then there is the this little piece Illyio said that dany reminded him of his second wife.

The timeline is wrong for Serra to have been sold into the pillowhouse before Tywin. If that was the case, why did it take so long for them to have a kid. Not to mention that Illyio still has to make contact with Varys and become respectable.

If Aerys sent Tywin there, there is no way Tywin was getting rid of possible brides. After Aeys turned down Cersei for Rhaegar there is no evidence that Tywin kept persisting she be his bride. Thart would be petty and beneath the great TYwin Lannister.

TYwin and Varys may have met in Lys, there is no evidence of that either though.

We have no idea when Serra and Illyrio were married, fAegon is 18 so at least 19 years, there is also no evidence that Serra is the one who Mero fucked. There are a ton of Valyrian desecnt girls in Lys. Serra would not have been the only one, I seriously doubt Mero screwed Serra specifically.

I never said Serra was sold to pillow house before Tywin. I just said that Tywin was there looking for a descendant of Aerion Brightflame, IMO Illyrio already knew who Serra was when Varys introduced them. And since Illyrio had a Blackfyre mother he saw his chance to marry her and create an exile Brightfyre male heir.

It was no secret that there were some lost Targ princess in the free cities, and there were definitely more then one. lots of the exiled Targaryens were known to have children and bastards.

[Ygrain]

If Aerys sent Tywin there, there is no way Tywin was getting rid of possible brides. After Aeys turned down Cersei for Rhaegar there is no evidence that Tywin kept persisting she be his bride. Thart would be petty and beneath the great TYwin Lannister.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. IIRC, he still kept his hopes up because of Elia's frail health. Aerys turned him down because he wanted something "better" for his son - but if nothing "better" was available, then Cersei might still get in the spotlight. And what is the timeline, anyway? Did Tywin go to Lys before or after his precious little psychopath was rejected?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. IIRC, he still kept his hopes up because of Elia's frail health. Aerys turned him down because he wanted something "better" for his son - but if nothing "better" was available, then Cersei might still get in the spotlight. And what is the timeline, anyway? Did Tywin go to Lys before or after his precious little psychopath was rejected?

I mean there is no way to know when he went. this is all speculation. this is the line from the Mercy chapter. the only specific is that it was while Tywin was hand. so 262-281 is as much as we can narrow it down.

“I went to Lys with Lord Tywin once, when he was Hand to Aerys. Braavos is north of King’s Landing, fool. Can’t you read a bloody map?”

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Why is Ned so tortured by a promise he supposedly kept? Just sayin'.

Not supposedly, he said that he had to pay to keep his promise. Why? Simple; because a.damaged his honor, b.damaged a yourg innocent child c.damaged his wife ego.

[No Song so Sweet]

My responses--following your numbering scheme:

1) How could there be evidence? This factor is neither an argument for or against either theory.

2) Again with the Varys lie? I explained why it is just as likely that Varys intentionally misled Kevan. What makes you think GRRM would not have Varys mislead a dying man, especially when it is important to keep the reader from knowing for sure whether Aegon is real or not?

3) I don't think this argument proves as much as you think it does. Varys and Illyrio were con-men--professional con-men. Jon Con was not in the con--he was conned. So most of the raising of (f)Aegon was done by Jon Con--who would raise him exactly as would be needed to have him behave as expected. This outcome is exactly what you would expect if Jon were raising the boy he believed to be the real Aegon, and the boy was led to believe from a young age who is supposed to be. Illyrio is rich and can pull off many tricks with his money to pull off the con. But a long con is just that--a plan that takes years to pull off but the pay-off is great enough to justify the risks. The fact that the looks work are what made Varys and Illyrio start the long con in the first place--a lucky coincidence.

4) I explained why your theory of the mummer's dragon does not work. Varys cannot be referred to as the mummer but the one time he is not acting and telling the truth is about Aegon, but the vision still sees Aegon as the mummer's dragon. It just makes no sense.

1) Fair enough. So you accept that both theories could be true and are credible?

2) Sorry but I am not convinced of the explanation. It could just as easily be that he was telling the truth as he is about to kill someone. In fact it would be much more plausible for me.

3) 15 years is a really long con for two people in the ages of Illyrio and Varys. What value would their gains be after so long? They would plan this for 15 years just to have an appointed position and to get some money when they already had powerful positions and money? I don't think they are doing it just for their own ambition and the game of thrones. If the kid is Illyrio's son that makes some sense, they could be doing it all for him, but Illyrio would never have a father-son relationship with him by using this con. This makes no sense because Illyrio would want all this for a son that he will never actually have as a son?

Also this long con just seems too much trouble when even Renly, with absolutely no claim at all can gather a huge army, imagine what Illyrio could do with all his financial might and Varys with all his contacts and secrets he has. They could just take the iron throne by force with mercenaries and gather nobles to their cause, with bribes and promises if they used all this time to gather money and support. Instead all they get is the golden company, who come with them because of loyalty to the Targaryens and whoever would happen to believe this con.

4) Varys is a mummer and a schemer, he acts behind a curtain and he uses disguises. That doesn't mean that he is evil or dishonest. In private he always claims that he is an honest person, with a cause to bring a rightful ruler to the throne. There have been zero reasons to doubt him so far. He tried to save Ned and he did save Tyrion, after he had shown appreciation for them. He had nothing to do with any murder so far, except for the epilogue of DwD, and he explains why he does it.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1) Fair enough. So you accept that both theories could be true and are credible?

2) Sorry but I am not convinced of the explanation. It could just as easily be that he was telling the truth as he is about to kill someone. In fact it would be much more plausible for me.

3) 15 years is a really long con for two people in the ages of Illyrio and Varys. What value would their gains be after so long? They would plan this for 15 years just to have an appointed position and to get some money when they already had powerful positions and money? I don't think they are doing it just for their own ambition and the game of thrones. If the kid is Illyrio's son that makes some sense, they could be doing it all for him, but Illyrio would never have a father-son relationship with him by using this con. This makes no sense because Illyrio would want all this for a son that he will never actually have as a son?

Also this long con just seems too much trouble when even Renly, with absolutely no claim at all can gather a huge army, imagine what Illyrio could do with all his financial might and Varys with all his contacts and secrets he has. They could just take the iron throne by force with mercenaries and gather nobles to their cause, with bribes and promises if they used all this time to gather money and support. Instead all they get is the golden company, who come with them because of loyalty to the Targaryens and whoever would happen to believe this con.

4) Varys is a mummer and a schemer, he acts behind a curtain and he uses disguises. That doesn't mean that he is evil or dishonest. In private he always claims that he is an honest person, with a cause to bring a rightful ruler to the throne. There have been zero reasons to doubt him so far. He tried to save Ned and he did save Tyrion, after he had shown appreciation for them. He had nothing to do with any murder so far, except for the epilogue of DwD, and he explains why he does it.

Well, I see we will not agree, and that is ok. Obviously, we will find out for sure when GRRM reveals in one of the future books. I will admit that either theory is possible. I will admit that I don't think there is anything in the series so far that makes it impossible for Aegon to be real. As a matter of fact, I would be surprised if any such evidence would exist, as that would defeat GRRM's purpose of leaving either possibility open until he chooses to reveal definitively (and yes, I believe eventually the readers will be told one way or the other even if most of the characters never find out definitively).

But just because either possibility could be true, we still should look at the clues objectively to try to figure out You read the clues differently that I do. You think the speech to Kevan supports Aegon being real. I interpret the same speech very differently. I try to look at it from GRRM's point of view--why is he putting this speech in now and why is he having Varys say what he says. For me, if this is supposed to be the "big reveal" that Aegon is real, then the reveal would have been unambiguous. The careful choosing of words by Varys in which the literal words can be true no matter whether Aegon is the son of Rhaegar or not, leads me to believe that this moment is not the big reveal. And if it is not the big reveal, then it likely is a "head fake" which GRRM loves. I know you are not convinced, but that is my thought process and why I am convinced.

As far as the long-con issue goes, your arguments would be stronger if this story were real life. But this story is fiction--a fantasy novel. In fiction, we have situations where characters spend 15 years to plot revenge for some perceived slight. The theory is that one or both of Illyrio and Varys come from Targ branches that believe that the throne was stolen by a different Targ line.So instead of growing up as royals, they grew up as beggars and con men. In fiction, these sorts of motivations can be used to justify actions that would seem implausible in the real world. With GRRM, things are rarely the way they seem initially. So if a character comes out of the blue in Book 6 and says he is the true Aegon, and Varys explains how he did a "baby switch" and sent Aegon to Essos--do you really think in the end the real facts is going to be the same as the initially stated facts? GRRM does not seem to write that way. So the long con is plausible under these circumstances, and it makes the story more interesting.

As far as whether Varys is evil, I never said he was evil, but killing Kevan was an evil act. Varys may have his reasons, but killing a man because he is doing a good job at stabilizing the kingdom is not a very persuasive justification for me. But it really does not matter whether Varys is evil or not. Whichever theory is correct, Varys thinks he is doing the right thing for his own reasons. The point about Varys being a mummer is not to prove that Varys is evil. It is to demonstrate that if the vision about Dany meeting a mummers dragon refers to Dany meeting Aegon, i.e., that Aegon is the mummers dragon, then it really only makes sense that Aegon is a fake. Why refer to Aegon as the mummers dragon if Varys, the mummer, is not engaging in the actions of a mummer in presenting Aegon. If Varys is usually a mummer, but in presenting Aegon, Varys is 100% sincere but nevertheless the vision sees Aegon as a mummers dragon, then to me, it makes no sense.

I try not to latch onto a theory and then fit the clues to be consistent with my preferred theory. I try to look at all the clues and see which theory is more consistent with the available clues. Of course, usually the clues will not be definitive enough to prove one theory or the other with 100% certainty. But the clues that I have examined all appear to suggest that Aegon is really (f)Aegon, and none of the clues seem to point to Aegon being real. There are statements from him and Jon Con and Varys that Aegon is real. But when you examine the foreshadowing (such as the suggestion that there will be a Blackfyre returning to Westeros), the clues I have discussed above, and just the general story arc (a "fake" Aegon fits into the story better at this point and adds more "plot twists" than a real Aegon) leads me to believe he is likely (f)Aegon. But we shall see . . . we shall see.

[No Song so Sweet]

snip

I will just answer to the mummer part because it bugs me and for the rest let us just agree to disagree.

My point was that Varys can be honest AND a mummer at the same time. So when the vision says about the mummer's dragon, it just points out to a specific dragon, Aegon, because he is associated with a mummer. The "mummer" part as i see it is a term that specifies that particular dragon's association, not his falsehood. You may still not agree with it as I don't agree with your version, but I think both are possible, I just stick with the most plausible one for me.

[Chebyshov]

See, I don't think we every will actually find out; there's no genetic testing in Westeros. And I think the point is that there will always be uncertainty about Aegon's identity, which makes everyone's treatment of him all the more interesting.

What in all the seven hells am I supposed to make of this? He says one thing, she says another.

Still, there's no dearth of threads debating his identity. The point of this thread was to say Aegon is R+L's kid, not R+E. There's been really no evidence for that. You can see bits of foreshadowing for Aegon's arrival in the first 3 books, but none that would indicate Ned pulled off some kind of double baby-swap.

[No Song so Sweet]

See, I don't think we every will actually find out; there's no genetic testing in Westeros. And I think the point is that there will always be uncertainty about Aegon's identity, which makes everyone's treatment of him all the more interesting.

Still, there's no dearth of threads debating his identity. The point of this thread was to say Aegon is R+L's kid, not R+E. There's been really no evidence for that. You can see bits of foreshadowing for Aegon's arrival in the first 3 books, but none that would indicate Ned pulled off some kind of double baby-swap.

That is not what I said. The point of the thread was that we have clues about R+L = baby. We have clues that Ashara Dayne + Stark = romance and that Varys + Illyrio + Aegon = Targaryen restoration, and the theory combined the three. Ned didn't swap any babies in this theory, he just kept hidden the identity of one baby and lied about the identity of his brother's child.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Ned is a man of honor, and given that the theory in this thread deals with the possible fact that Jon is the Bastard of lady Dayne and Benjen Stark, he's actually saving both of them the dishonor of the act by not telling.

I agree this is possible.

Actually this doesn't work because even a man of honor such as Ned could have told his wife the truth. They could have kept Benjen and Ashara's child a secret between the two of them and no one else needed to know. And it might have made things better between Cat and Jon. The only reason to keep Jon's parentage a secret (from everyone, including his wife!) is if it would be dangerous for people to know.

[Chebyshov]

That is not what I said. The point of the thread was that we have clues about R+L = baby. We have clues that Ashara Dayne + Stark = romance and that Varys + Illyrio + Aegon = Targaryen restoration, and the theory combined the three. Ned didn't swap any babies in this theory, he just kept hidden the identity of one baby and lied about the identity of his brother's child.

Wouldn't Ned have had to swap the babies at Starfall? Anyway, thanks to the lack of time-traveling sperm it's all a bit of a moot point. Any child of Brandon's would not be Jon's age, unless you're saying Ashara and Ned produced Jon from a sweet war-time meet up.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I will just answer to the mummer part because it bugs me and for the rest let us just agree to disagree.

My point was that Varys can be honest AND a mummer at the same time. So when the vision says about the mummer's dragon, it just points out to a specific dragon, Aegon, because he is associated with a mummer. The "mummer" part as i see it is a term that specifies that particular dragon's association, not his falsehood. You may still not agree with it as I don't agree with your version, but I think both are possible, I just stick with the most plausible one for me.

Chebshov I think makes an interesting point when she points out that your theory is that Aegon is not Elia's son. Your OP--first sentence, states that you think Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. If that is true, then I guess Varys would be lying to Kevan as Kevan was certainly led to believe that Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia. I am starting to get lost on what your actual theory is.

Suffice it to say that we disagree. I don't think you just randomly refer to Varys as the "mummer" as if everyone just calls him that all the time, so anyone associated with him is referred to as the "mummers [fill in the blank]". Aegon is referred to as the mummers dragon because Varys is acting in his capacity as a mummer (i.e., an actor) in presenting Aegon--not because people common think of Varys as a mummer and thus Aegon is real but is being presented by "the mummer". That is how I understand it. I know you see it differently, and that is fine.

[WeaselPie]

Why is Ned so tortured by keeping the promise, you ask. Because it cost him his a great deal to keep that promise--he had to lie to everyone, let the world believe he was unfaithful to his wife when they were newly married, raise his sister's son as his own bastard even though Ned knows that Jon is really the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. This lie caused great pain to his wife and to Jon--two people for whom he cares deeply. His integrity essentially has been permanently besmirched because he is raising a "bastard" son, which is not consistent with what people believe about his character generally. The promise forced him to choose between competing values that were important to him--and ultimately the risk to Jon if the truth came out and Ned's love for his sister caused him to keep the promise, but the painful consequences of keeping this promise is something that would torture most people who have the values that Ned is described to have had.

LOL. Lyanna was going to die anyway. Cat was a bitch for 14 years. No one else cared that Ned had a bastard. Jon was safely off to the Wall without anyone knowing.

Ned should have been freaking thrilled he pulled it off.

You use flowerly words but Ned whining about a promise for 14 years? Sorry, something isn't right. Not to mention there were multiple promises. Ned didn't keep some of them. /end

[No Song so Sweet]

Chebshov I think makes an interesting point when she points out that your theory is that Aegon is not Elia's son. Your OP--first sentence, states that you think Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. If that is true, then I guess Varys would be lying to Kevan as Kevan was certainly led to believe that Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia. I am starting to get lost on what your actual theory is.

Well that theory has gone off the window now (if you read all the post in pages 3 and 4 especially you will see that the theory was disproved), so we were discussing the R+E=Aegon. I don't know why, don't ask me :).

In my OP i also state that with this theory, he doesn't actually lie. I mean technically yes, he doesn't have the first Aegon, but if he still is Rhaegar's son then its not a problem. Instead of explaining Kevan, then and there, all the complications of R+L=Aegon etc where he doesn't really have a reason to go into that depth, he could just say that he is Rhaegar's first baby instead of the third. It would be a lie of no importance just to shorten the explanation, and you could even say that by naming him Aegon, the third child just replaced the first. That's how I saw it anyway.

That wouldn't apply if he was Illyrio's son because then Varys would have no reason to lie to Kevan that he has a legitimate Targaryen heir.