M + L = J and Qhorin knew/suspected it? (NO crackpot)

[Trident full of Dogs]

Hello, obviously this has come up before, butI've searched the board for a M + L = J thread but wasn't able to find much and it doesn't seem to be a popular theory here. Even before I write my post, I'd ask of those of you who are "older" in these forums to please link to similar threads when you post, so we could gather as much posts as possible on the subject.

I was very happy with the R + L = J theory, as it suits many details in Asoiaf specially the "dragon thing" and prophecies. I still think it is a good theory.

BUT (as Uncle Benjen says what one says before "but" is not the important part..) I don't think Mance + Lyanna = Jon is crackpot. At all. So I'm kinda disappointed not many people like this possibility or think it could be true, and I'll try to do my best here to prove it's not ridiculous or far-fetched, but worth of discussing. I'll list my reasons:

1- Qhorin Halfhand's attitude towards Jon.

"Qhorin swung down from his saddle. "My men are hungry, and our horse require tending."

"They'll all be seen to."

The ranger gave his horse into the care of one of his maen and followed. "You are Jon Snow. You have your father's look."

"Did you know him, my lord?"

"I am no lordling. Only a brother of the Night's Watch. I knew Lord Eddard, yes. And his father before him."

Jon had to hurry his steps to keep up with Qhorin's long strides. "Lord Rickard died before I was born."

The Old Bear sat slumped and silnet, as if the burden of speech had brown too heavy for him to bear. But at last he said, "May the gods forgive me. Choose your men."

Qhorin halfand turned his head. His eyes met Jon's, and held them for a long moment. "Very well. I choose Jon Snow."

I found it queer that Qhorin has just met Jon, and out of the blue, he chooses him to go scouting with him. Why? Does he know he's a warg, within a few minutes of their meeting? Or does he want to take Jon with him because Jon could be important to Mance? As in... (don't throw rocks)... ta da, his son? He was friends with Mance, so if he knew/suspected/just found out! Mance was Jon's father, could Qhorin have meant Jon has Mance's look? Could be. Mance and Jon are both described as slender and having brown hair. The words "long brown hair" are both in Ned's and in Mance's description, too.

"The wilding blood is the blood of the First Men, the same blood that flows in the veis n of the Starks."

Mance tells Jon that in the chapter they first meet.

And why should Qhorin know about Mance and Lyanna, and their bastard son raised by her brother ? Maybe in the past, Mance confided in him (they were friends). Maybe Qhorin was present when Mance met Lyanna and saw how it went.

Another quote from the same Chapter (Mance and Jon's first meeting):

"I see a woman." He glanced at Dalla.

Mance took ker by the hand and pulled her close. "My lady is blameless. I met her on my return from your father's castle. The Halfhand was carved of old olk, but I am made of flesh, and I have a great fondness for the charms of women...which makes me no different from three-quarters of the Watch."

Now why would he mention Qhorin. Was Qhorin around when young Mance was womanizing, as a disapproving righteous brother? Is that why Mance thinks of him when he talks of his fondness for the ladies? That is a further indication Qhorin could have been aware of Mance's seduction of Lyanna, if it actually happened.

2 - Bael the Bard

That song is is too much of a coincidence and has been discussed before, so no good going through it too much. But basically, Bael = anagram for Abel, Bael also being a raider before he was King-beyond-the-wall, the scaling the wall + eating and singing at Lord Stark's table. Mace admits as much, when he tells Jon Bael the Bard's exploit inspired his own.

But what about other bits of the song, that just ring deja vu? Not only the winter rose (which Mance does not mention) but the lady throwing herself off the tower. IMHO, the song Ygritte knows is probably a mix of Bael the Bard's old story AND stuff that happened more recently; these songs were not written (or at least the smallfolk could not read it) so much could be changed as people sang it ot one another. The lady who jumps froi the tower is likely Ashara Dayne. and the wildlings who sang the song merged her story with the Winter Rose Maid (Lyanna).

3- Harrenhall

The tale of the Knight of the Laughing Tree is a MAJOR pillar of R + L = J. Agreed. It feets R + J = L nicely. But:

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teaed her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch."

I'm so not going into a detailed analysis of the KotLT's tale, as it is extensively done already, in the R + L = J threads and its own threads I guess. But that Black Brother WAS there. It could have been Mance for all we know. Maybe he met Lyanna there.

4- Alfie Allen

IMHO the Star Wars thing he talks about has a lot more to do with M + L = J, than with R + L = J. Mance is still alive, and he is Jon's enemy. Also Bael the Bard's tale include a father-son showdown, "sword to sword" in which Bael is slain by the young Lord of Winterfell, because he would not kill his own son. That could be foreshadowing of a Mance-Jon showdown. This one actually isn't a good reason for M+L=J to be true, but it has a ring to it!!!!!

And what about Rhaegar crowning Lyanna QoLB, ToJ, Prince that was promised, etc...? Dunno. Maybe Rhaegar did fall in love with her. Maybe she didn't fall in love with him but was kidnapped just the same. Maybe she was pregnant of Mance's child when Rhaegar kidnapped her. Maybe Mance climbed the ToJ for all I know, he climbed a frigging gigantic ICE wall why not a much smaller tower made of stones ? And we know Mance does have a thing for Dorne after all.

I still consider R+L=J more likely than M+L=J.

M+L=J is the underdog. But it has its chances!!!

[~Shiera Seastar~]

Plus, Mance and Jon are both turncloaks. Like Father like Son? I like the way you supported your theory, by the way. Good points.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

That is too good to be true...

I like it (quite a lot) but is impossible(Why Lyanna was at ToJ, why KG were at ToJ?)

[dreamprfct]

Always nice to have something new to think about!

I still go with R + L = J

but think you made some really good points!

[Greymoon]

I like this theory.

Also, Tormund does suggest Jon might yet make a good wildling...

So would you suggest Mance stole Lyanna and everyone assumed poor innocent Rhaegar did the deed because of the events at Harrenhal? Would Mance have taken Lyanna south or up north?

How did Rhaegar get involved in this story? did he try to rescue Lyanna from Mance? Was he, per chance, up north at the Wall visiting with Aemon? Could he have stumbled upon the pair whilst traveling back south from the Wall with his KG and felt it was his duty to see to it Mance got punished for his vow breaking?

Edit: It also puts the symbolism of the blue rose on the wall of ice into a different perspective

[JonNonRegis]

Congrats, Squire. This is the most interesting and best-supported concept I've read on this board in quite a long time.

I would even add to your list of evidence worth considering:

1. Jon's super-Starky appearance -- this seems a lot more likely if Mance is his father than if it's Rhaegar.

2. All the references to Jon being "King" make sense to me if Jon winds up (like Mance) a King-beyond-the-Wall (although I doubt that will remain the title, if the Wall falls). And in fact I've been expecting that, no matter who Jon's father is. The idea that Jon will take the Iron Throne just seems a tiresome cliche.

3. The presence of the Kingsguard at the ToJ is not difficult to explain; they were commanded to be there by Rhaegar. The Kingsguard do not do whatever they personally think will protect the king, but what they are commanded to do by the king or ranking members of the royal family. Otherwise, they would never have left Aerys in the first place. If Rhaegar said go, they would go.

4. If Mance suspected he had put a bun in Lyanna's oven, curiosity to see the child might have inspired his subsequent visit to Winterfell. We know he was there and saw Jon at the time Robert came to Winterfell.

5. It would certainly be serendipitous for Jon if, in smuggling away Dalla's baby... he was also smuggling away his own half-brother.

To me the biggest objection is really not a very significant one: Mance seems too highly regarded among the Watch's rangers, sixteen years back, to have been in the south, where he could attend the Harrenhal tourney. It seems the Watch would have wanted such talents north of the Wall.

[FittleLinger]

snip M+L=J

Good! There are some points which aren't ridiculous (as opposed to some anti R+L points that have been made recently, which don't seem to have it's own merit and exist only anti R+L because it seems so mainstream).

I don't believe it, but I give kudos to creative thinking based on some sort of evidence, so kudos ;)

[~Shiera Seastar~]

But: Why Lyanna was at ToJ, why KG were at ToJ?

Lyanna was taken away, far and away, to a place not easily reachable. The KG were there to make sure no one else will take her away. Lyanna was a wild wolf you know, she could have beaten those KG (if she wasn't preggy).

[Greymoon]

Oh!

"Black was always my color" says Jon. Mance would still have been a black brother when Jon was conceived, since he visited Winterfell once as a brother, once as a bard, and both times he saw Jon.

And since we are speaking of Wildings and their tales...I've always thought Tormund was suggesting he lay with a Mormont woman when he told Jon the story about laying with bears. That would be a nice parallel, no?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Lyanna was taken away, far and away, to a place not easily reachable. The KG were there to make sure no one else will take her away. Lyanna was a wild wolf you know, she could have beaten those KG (if she wasn't preggy).

I cross my fingers this to be sarcasm...

[Tagganaro]

I love this idea. But there are problems with it.

1. Qhorin's attitude- Qhorin takes Jon with him because he knows Mance very well and knows about the Stark/Wildling connection that Mance would honor. This is confirmed when Ygritte tells Jon Mance would take him, and Qhorin then confirms it. I believe Qhorin always had an inkling that it might come down to dying and Jon would be the key to turning his cloak.

2. The Bael the Bard connection is nice. However, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. We know of 2 times where Mance has lived out this song. First during Robert's visit, and 2nd during ADWD. In neither one has he actually literally lived it out by stealing the Lord's daughter and sleeping with her.

3. True, but very doubtful. Mance was a famed ranger and a former wildling. I'd doubt that they would send him to Harrenhall during that time period. He'd also be younger than he even was during his first visit to WF when Jon was a young boy, and be unlikely to be doing any recruiting on his own.

4. I like this point the most honestly. I agree it has a nice ring to it. And I love the idea of Jon and Mance fighting for control of WF a la Luke and Darth Vader.

All in all, I really like the idea I just don't think it is nearly as plausible as R + L=J.

[houseHB]

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Aegon? = Ned's broken promises because he could not raise his other sisters son? Because bringing home two bastards would just add more hardship on Ned and Cat's marriage? Lyanna got around LOL

[Greymoon]

I love this idea. But there are problems with it.

1. Qhorin's attitude- Qhorin takes Jon with him because he knows Mance very well and knows about the Stark/Wildling connection that Mance would honor. This is confirmed when Ygritte tells Jon Mance would take him, and Qhorin then confirms it. I believe Qhorin always had an inkling that it might come down to dying and Jon would be the key to turning his cloak.

2. The Bael the Bard connection is nice. However, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. We know of 2 times where Mance has lived out this song. First during Robert's visit, and 2nd during ADWD. In neither one has he actually literally lived it out by stealing the Lord's daughter and sleeping with her.

3. True, but very doubtful. Mance was a famed ranger and a former wildling. I'd doubt that they would send him to Harrenhall during that time period. He'd also be younger than he even was during his first visit to WF when Jon was a young boy, and be unlikely to be doing any recruiting on his own.

4. I like this point the most honestly. I agree it has a nice ring to it. And I love the idea of Jon and Mance fighting for control of WF a la Luke and Darth Vader.

All in all, I really like the idea I just don't think it is nearly as plausible as R + L=J.

But why mention the black brother at all in the tale of the KotLT? Mance seems too young, but its quite possible whoever did the recruiting wasn't there on his own. no?

[Tagganaro]

But why mention the black brother at all in the tale of the KotLT? Mance seems too young, but its quite possible whoever did the recruiting wasn't there on his own. no?

Well, of course it's possible. I never said it wasn't. I just said it was very doubtful that Mance would be there.

[The guy from the Vale]

But why mention the black brother at all in the tale of the KotLT? Mance seems too young, but its quite possible whoever did the recruiting wasn't there on his own. no?

Why mention the Black Brother at all? Because the backstory for Benjen going to the Wall has to be established, too. Note the "wolf pup" and his reaction to said black brother...

@OP: I think this is the best X+L=J story I've seen so far (except for R+L=J). So kudos to that. I don't agree with it, for a variety of reasons (mainly, why on earth did Lyanna die in Dorne, with KG protection, if she had a baby with Mance Rayder, of all people? Also, the timeline issue). But it's certainly true that while Mance isn't Jon's father, there are numerous parallels between the two, and Mance might be a good template when thinking about Rhaegar.

[Trident full of Dogs]

I like this theory.

Also, Tormund does suggest Jon might yet make a good wildling...

So would you suggest Mance stole Lyanna and everyone assumed poor innocenot Rhaegar did the deed because of the events at Harrenhal? Would Mance have taken Lyanna south or up north?

How did Rhaegar get involved in this story? did he try to rescue Lyanna from Mance? Was he, per chance, up north at the Wall visiting with Aemon? Could he have stumbled upon the pair whilst traveling back south from the Wall with his KG and felt it was his duty to see to it Mance got punished for his vow breaking?

Edit: It also puts the symbolism of the blue rose on the wall of ice into a different perspective

Rhaegar crowning Lyanna with winter roses is canon. ToJ is canon too. Ned finding Lyanna dying in childbirth is canon too I guess? Only add Mance to the story, as in Lyanna loved HIM not Rhaegar and a lot of what-ifs start crossing one's mind. Wild guessing just start popping out.

There is an interesting recent thread (sorry don't seem to have luck with search device today) about the excessive number of pregnant young women round the time of Robert's Rebellion. Ashara Dayne, Lyanna, Elia, and Wylla if she really existed (is she the fisherman's daughter Davos hears about?). There are also many beautiful young ladies in The KotLT tale. And there seems to be two towers, the ToJ and the tower Ashara Dayne throws herself from.

What if, just like the song Ygritte heard from her mother got Ashara and the winter rose all mixed up, we readers are also mixing up stories? Just because Rhaegar and Lyanna wee both in Harrenhall it doesn't mean they are the only possible pairing.

I have to accept, though, that Rhaegar must have had good reasons to steal Lyanna _ if it was really him who stole her. What if it was Ashara Dayne in ToJ and not Lyanna????? she could have jumped from ToJ then and the story about that other tower was a lie (too many towers!). Then Ned brought both Dawn and Ashara's body to Starfall. Or for some reason he buried Ashara's bones there when he tore ToJ down and erected those Cairns.

"Promise me, Ned" could have happened elsewhere.

And maybe Mance find a way to make sure the crown Rhaegar gave Lyanna was made of winter roses.

Why mention the Black Brother at all? Because the backstory for Benjen going to the Wall has to be established, too. Note the "wolf pup" and his reaction to said black brother...

@OP: I think this is the best X+L=J story I've seen so far (except for R+L=J). So kudos to that. I don't agree with it, for a variety of reasons (mainly, why on earth did Lyanna die in Dorne, with KG protection, if she had a baby with Mance Rayder, of all people? Also, the timeline issue). But it's certainly true that while Mance isn't Jon's father, there are numerous parallels between the two, and Mance might be a good template when thinking about Rhaegar.

Good point about Benjen.

But if the NW man wants to meet Lyanna, her crow-to-be brother would be a welcome excuse to get close to her.

Also I find it interesting that it's the wildilings who go about stealing women for their love. Should any of this ever prove true, it makes a nice parallel to Jon's stealing of Ygritte, and his desire s of stealing Val and moving to Winterfell with both babies. He's repeating (if only unwillingly in one instance and in a dream in another) his parents story. I totally ignore.if the Targs also had a habbit of kidnapping ladies.

AND it is OC for Arthur Dayne and the other KG to help Rhaegar kidnapp a maid, isn't that dishonorable for men who are anointed knights and all?

I'm starting to think we still have a lot of connect the dots thinking to do concercing the year of the false spring (spring BTW being mating season as BAMBIE clearly shows): who met who, who loved who, who had sex with who and had a baby, who kidnapped who and were did they take them, who helped who and how many and whose babies they be. Players: Mance, Rhaegar, Brandon, Ned, ser Barristan, Robert, Ashara, Lyannna, Elia, babies Jon, stillborn baby girl ser Barristan recalls.

****off to bed before head explodes****

edited to add crack opptionals to the original non-crackpot theory

[FittleLinger]

Yeah but the problem with this crackpot is that all those things happened recently. They didn't happen 100-200-5000 years ago, so that stories could get mixed up. Everyone pretty much knows and remembers.

[Faceless Assassin]

Good theory...

but I'm not convinced, it's too outside the box. Whereas the R+L=J theory (I don't know if something so definite should be a theory) fits so perfectly.

Alot of you points make good sense, and if for some reason Rhaegar couldn't be Jon's father I might be inclined to agree with you.

But I suppose why would Lyanna be under protection from her family even after Rhaegar's death? Surely if Rhaegar loved her, but she wasn't pregnant (with his child) he would have used the kingsguard to guard himself at the Trident.

[Ran]

Completely crackpot. Sorry.

Lets just say that if you can't figure out who Jon's parents might plausibly be from AGoT -- and AGoT alone -- then the theory doesn't work.

[TheGreyKraken]

There are too much different factors that stray away from this theory for it to be entirely convincing, you did however raise a few interesting points but I still find this crackpot, since some other theories of Jon's parentage are more likely.