John Suburbs

Sure, it could be all kinds of things. But none of those things have been suggested in the text, so all we have to go on is that the wine merchant pegged her accent as Tyroshi. It's also reasonable to assume that he's been all over the free cities, otherwise he would not be able to distinguish one accent from another, and that Dany's accent would have emerged in the period where her language patterns became established, which would coincide with her time at the house with the red door. She also has fond memories of the honeyfinger cakes in the Tyroshi bazaars. No one else says Dany has a Tyroshi accent, but several characters have remarked on its distinctness in other people. Chett called it a "wet, girly tongue", and Tyrion thought the accent of the Tyroshi singer at Joffrey's wedding was ludicrous. Nobody ever said that about anyone from Braavos. Plus, Tyrosh and Braavos are pretty far from each other, so it's possible but highly unlikely that their accents would be similar. So given that we can pretty much rule out Braavos as a suitable habitat for citrus trees, then Tyrosh would be a more likely candidate than Dorne. Tyrosh at least has something to back it up.

It's not a question of bringing a lemon tree to Braavos, it's getting it to survive and thrive in such a climate. If they could grow in Braavos, then they should be common throughout the southern half of Westeros, but they're not. You could bring a lemon tree from Florida to New York, but it won't survive there either unless it's in some kind of controlled environment, and there is nothing to suggest that the house with the red door was inside a greenhouse so large that Dany did not notice it, or that this engineering marvel was not widely mentioned as one of the wonders of the world, or why anyone would think to build a home in such a hothouse. But you're right that Dorne would not be the only place for the house with the red door. The wine merchant in Vaes Dothrak thought her accent was Tyroshi, which suggests she was in Tyrosh during her formative language years. So my vote is that the house and the lemon tree are in Tyrosh.

Eh, Cersei has a way of bending the rules to her benefit. She didn't choose a kingsguard for Tyrion's TbC, but of course, her honor was not at stake then. Regents have wide latitude to enforce the rules as they see fit.

Not if her accuser is the king. Remember, the plan of both Stannis and Ned was to convince Robert that the children were not his so he would then dispense his justice. So Robert would pick a KG, and Cersei would pick her own champion. But sure, I wouldn't put it past Robert to choose Jaime as his champion, so that even if Cersei wins, she loses. And mayhaps Jaime would simply refuse, which would be a yet another violation of his oath . . .

Even if Robert believed Ned there is still no proof. Ned's own children look more Tully than Stark. So Robert would have died before a trial could even take place, or if they rushed it through Cersei could call for a TBC with Ser Gregor as her champion, which she would win. So it might have worked out better for Ned if he had told Robert. When Cersei beats the rap, he could have honorably withdrawn from the capital with his daughters and his house intact.

The facts are all there, just like they were with the Sealord's cat. The Hound was responsible for protecting Joffrey and he went inexplicably AWOL that day. Yet there were no repercussions that day despite Cersei attacking everyone and everything involved, and even those who were not involved. Martin does not just make up utterly implausible scenarios just to advance the plot. It's why it takes him 10 years to write a novel. So you are not giving him credit. You are turning him into a hack. There is nothing wrong with coincidences like Bran climbing the tower (the broken tower was his favorite place and it was the perfect out-of-the-way place for a tryst, after all), or Tyrion running into Cat, but when the facts of what was supposed to be contradict what actually is, that's when you know something is up -- just like with the Arryn murder, the Westerling conspiracy, and RLJ. Ned had already sent the bulk of his men with Beric, and no, he would have no idea that either of his daughters, let alone the good one, would go sneaking off to the queen to tell her his plans. Nothing unusual there -- other than the fact that even Sansa is surprised at her newfound willfulness, which may also be a subtle sign of things happening in the subtext. Sandor was angling to get his gold back. It would be odd if he wasn't there. So none of what you are proposing as evidence is even closely the same as this. There is nothing inherently wrong with any of it, unlike two of the most valuable children in the world riding off alone into the countryside. Not even Robert and Ned do that, nor does any other highborn. Even Bran's first ride on Dancer starts out with Robb and Theon, both fully armed and armored, plus five additional guardsmen. And look what happened when they got lax and Bran found himself alone -- he was almost killed by wildlings, literally right on Winterfell's doorstep. That's how dangerous it is when the very clothes you are wearing are worth more than an average peasant earns in a year. So just like all the things that were wrong with the notion that Cersei killed Jon Arryn -- right up to Pycelle telling us that "she wanted him dead" because "he knew about . . . about . . ." -- and the Westerling plot, and RLJ and half-a-dozen other events, all the clues are there screaming out the truth. Sadly, though, some people can only see this in hindsight.

Nonsense. It's all subtextual evidence that there was a plot afoot. Give Martin a little credit. When he uses "authorial devices" to advance the plot, he at least makes them plausible. If he just made up whatever scenario out of thin air whenever he wanted, it wouldn't take him 10 years to write a novel.

No that's not it. It's the fact that they were allowed to go off all by themselves in the first place. This simply does not happen, not even for Ned and Robert. It's far too dangerous. And Joffrey has a sworn shield who is honor-bound to protect him at all times who just went AWOL for the day just because Joff told him to back away from Sansa. And when Joff did get hurt, and could have been killed, Cersei is flipping mad at everyone and everything involved, and even takes it out on the wolf who was not involved, but not a peep about the man whose job, his only job, is to prevent this exact thing from happening. And, of course, we first learn that Sansa hates horses and has very little experience at riding, but there she is bouncing overland on her common mare while Joff tears ahead on his courser, which is a horse bred for speed. And what do we later learn Cersei believes happens to young girl's bodies when they go in for hard riding? There's more, but this was a setup, clear as day.

Yes, the whole thing was a setup. Cersei only wanted to slut-shame Sansa to scotch the betrothal -- thus the fact that they were allowed to go off alone, and the hard riding, and the wine . . . Joffrey was going to kill her, probably by drowning her in the river, because he thought this was necessary to protect his crown.

Ned was too shy to ask her to dance, so Brandon did it for him, and they had one dance together. And from that people turned it into a torrid love affair that produced a child and ended in tragedy. And yet, when Ned is in the black cells miserating over all the regrets in his life, and in particular the promise at the ToJ and all the events that led up to that point, not once does his mind fall on this love of his life who he supposedly betrayed so badly that she took her own life. Sorry, but call me skeptical. The relationship between her and Elia is that Ashara's family is vassal to Elia's, and she became Elia's lady in waiting either before or after the marriage to Rhaegar. Her relationship with Lyanna was virtually nil. She had little to no relation with the ToJ. The story is that it was one of Rhaegar's private places when he wanted to get away from things and write songs, but we can't even be sure if that is true. There is no connection between her and the prophecy, and there is no real evidence that Rhaegar did any of the things people say he did or had anything to do with Lyanna's disappearance at all. The source for this whole tale, which most readers believe is half-a-lie already, comes from a single unknown person who spilled it to Brandon on the kingsroad. Not one person, living or dead, says they saw Rhaegar and Lyanna together at any time after Harrenhal. So Ashara's involvement in all of this is basically a cover story that Ned allowed to fester to make people think they know who Jon's mother was, when in reality it was Lyanna -- and despite his non-involvement in her disappearance, Rhaegar is still probably JJon's father nonetheless. It's complicated.

Joffrey did it, but Littlefinger was the instigator. To reiterate my earlier post, Petyr convinced Joffrey that the only way to prevent Ned from becoming Hand, and jeopardizing Joffrey's ascension to the throne, is if a Stark child were to suddenly die. So first, Joff tried to goad Robb into fighting with live steel, with a little night soil on his own blade. Then Bran fell and Joff though all was good, but when Ned came south anyway he sent the CP back to finish the job. And when they reached the Trident and there was still no word of Bran's death, Joff took the opportunity to use Cersei's plan to slut-shame Sansa on their little date to kill her instead. But fortunately they ran into Arya and Micah.

Thoros is part of the LSH group at the moment. Maybe he'll splinter off, but I don't see any suggestion that he will. A couple of members of Beric's original band were sent south to buy/scavenge food. It's hard to say what they'll think of LSH if they ever meet her. Others like Ned Dayne and Anguy weren't mentioned as being part of LSH's band, but Brienne would not know them by sight so they might have been there. Or maybe they've already bolted. We'll have to see. But be careful trying to predict what will come in Martin's stories. That way madness lies.

Moral of the story: don't screw with Tywin Lannister. For reference, see Reynes and Tarbecks.

For the same reason Mel tells Jon to have a tail even though he doesn't (or shouldn't) need one at Castle Black: the trappings of power are as important as the power itself. She keeps her own guards for that very reason as well, IRRC.

Just FYI, the other day when I was navigating the forum and wiki Trend Micro starting flashing security warnings, most of them on something called reachms/bfmio, but also on sync/bfmio. It seems to be OK now, but I just thought you might want to know. It could be something simple like expired security tickets or something.

She is going to elope with a married prince and she has no way of eluding her guard? Even 9yo Arya had no trouble doing that. Or she is being attacked, in broad daylight in front of witnesses, by a group of armed men and her guards cut and ran? Guards are commanded to give their lives for their lords and ladies. What good is a guard if he is going to give you up at the first sign of trouble? And then it was these cowardly guards who then immediately reported this as a kidnapping? They should have made straight for Saltpans and hopped the next cog to Essos, lest Brandon learn what they did. Why would R and/or L want anyone to know that they are off to make a mythical hero baby? And the Starks know? But not Brandon? Why is he out of the loop? And even Robert knows? Why is he so furious, now 15 years later, about the thousands of times Rhaegar raped Lyanna? Did he forget? So basically Rhaegar's reasoning is this: I'll snatch the betrothed maid, have a baby with her, even "wed" her if I want, and then I'll just wing it from there? Come on. Give the man some credit. They already had a good marriage for Lyanna, to the Lord of Storm's End. Now she's been tarnished in front of the entire realm; she'll be lucky to get a third son of some minor branch house. I don't think you realize what a huge insult this is to both Starks and Baratheons. Lyanna wasn't just a bride, she was the union of two great houses. Her value was political, not personal. And he is doing this to two houses who were conspiring to put Rhaegar on the throne just weeks before. All of this is so completely out of character for both Rhaegar and Lyanna, not to mention Aerys subsequently and the KG, Ned and others after that, that it is hard to see how people are able to rationalize this just to produce they explanation they desire. Sorry, but the text provides all kinds of reasons to doubt Rhaegar's involvement. Not just the false kidnap story but the actions of virtually everyone in the weeks and months that followed. Literally everyone would have to be the opposite of what they seemed to be in order to make this work. Rhaegar is the mad one. Aerys is relatively sane and caring toward his heir. Lyanna cares not a whit what happens to her family or anyone else as long as she gets her prince. The KG, three of them at once, forsake their vows to support Rhaegar. Ned makes a life-altering promise to the sister who betrayed him and their house, subjecting his wife to a lifetime of shame and actually increasing the risk that Jon will be found out . . . For three full novels, nobody other than Cersei and Jaime were mentioned in connection with the death of Jon Arryn, right up to the point where Pycelle is telling us "she wanted him dead" because "he knew about . . . about . . ." And yet the truth could have been deduced by asking why Cersei did not destroy the book or act against Ned sooner, why she admits the truth to Ned without batting an eye, why she didn't admit it to Tyrion right after she confessed to killing Robert, or any number of other contrary decisions she made if she was truly worried about these Hands and their "evidence." In the end, the fact is that she wasn't, and had no reason to be. I think we will see the same thing here. And Martin has said that we will get the full story of what happened by the end of the series. But that's enough for me on this subject. Thanks for the chat.

Maybe they didn't bother to elope at night? Maybe they didn't bother to meet up where no one else is around? Maybe they didn't take even the most basic steps to hide their identities? Again, I ask, why not? Why are they so bound and determined to be found out as quickly as humanly possible? Do they want to get away or don't they? Do they intend to make a baby or not? Do they intend to rescue Lyanna from the brutish Robert or don't they? Why wouldn't they do everything humanly possible to steal away together and have no one know what they are up to? Catelyn was in cognito at the inn, very effectively. Only someone who knew her by sight who saw her up close revealed her, and then she had no choice. So how would this same thing happen with R&L? Is Lyanna hiding her identity and Rhaegar spots her? Is Rhaegar hiding and Lyanna outs him? And wouldn't this fly in the face of your contention that this was an elopement and not a kidnapping? Why would they meet in an inn, announce their identities to a bunch of strangers, and then stage it like a kidnapping? Why are they being so nonchalant about something that they both know will rock their two houses at the very least? Nobody would see Rhaegar's silver hair at night. Nobody would see it if he took the simple step of wearing a hooded cloak. It is the dead of winter after all. Why are they both so bound and determined to be caught as quickly as possible? Why is he wearing his distinctive armor and his feathers? The central question you keep evading: why are they doing absolutely nothing to keep people from discovering their elopement? OK, so who is spreading the false tale of the kidnapping in your scenario? Who is throwing Rhaegar under the bus like this if not Aerys? And if the kidnapping part is false, why is it so all-fire impossible for the entire story to be false? No, he didn't take her to Dragonstone, which is the most logical place to bring her considering it is his seat and he could get her there in a couple of days with no one the wiser. Instead, he carts her overland all the way to the ToJ, a good couple of weeks or more. And no one spots them on this long journey. No one thinks to rescue the kidnapped maiden and bring the prince to justice. No one has any clue that this is where they've gone. Even Brienne could not get Jaime back to KL from Riverrun, and that was through a land desolated by war. It is not pointless to ask why not. That is where the truth lies. It is how we could have puzzled out the truth of the Arryn murder: by asking why didn't Cersei do a number of key things if she was truly worried about the Hand and the book. And it's how you can still get to the truth about the Purple Wedding and other things. Rhaegar is no fool. He knows exactly what the fallout is when you make off with a highborn daughter, particularly one who is betrothed. It's not just the Starks he has to worry about but the Baratheons too. And if the tales of Harrenhal are true, these are they very same lords who were plotting to put him on the throne just weeks before. So any way you looik at it, this is a completely mad act by a man who has shown no signs of madness before and received the admiration of some of the most honorable, noble people in the realm, both before and after his death. Certainly not the result for someone who would commit such a horrible crime. Aerys would not have to be with Lyanna or Rhaegar in order to kidnap them both. But supposedly Rhaegar himself snatched Lyanna off the road, a story we only get from one unnamed stranger. And the speed that this story got out strongly suggest that neither of them did the slightest thing to hide their actions, which is completely incongruous given the implications of what they were supposedly up to. The story does not fit the facts. When that happens, you don't just ignore the facts that dispute your theory, nor do you just make up imaginary facts out of the clear blue sky. You try to find a plausible scenario that fits with what is actually known. Maybe it will pan out, maybe it won't. But you don't just dismiss it because it leads to a conclusion that's different from what you imagined. Again, it doesn't matter what Lyanna knew or did not know afterward. She acted selfishly and it resulted in the deaths of her father and brother, not to mention countless others across the realm. She defied her father, shamed her house and ran off with a married man because it suited her own self-interest. She has no right to expect any favors from Ned, nor does Ned have any reason to grant them, particularly one that falsely brings additional shame to him, his wife and the son that Lyanna wants him to raise -- and in fact places this son in greater jeopardy of being found out. Yet another in a long list of examples where people are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing if this elopement story is true. There is no indication that Hightower had any trouble finding them. And then he simply tells Rhaegar to get his tail back to KL, or places him in custody of some junior office who has no standing to arrest the crown prince, and decides to stay at the ToJ because guarding Rhaegar's girlfriend is more important than protecting the king? IT's just one disconnect after another. The characters are not doing what they should be doing under your narrative, not mine. In mine, Aerys is the cause of all this. He had them both taken. He impregnated Lyanna. He then forced Rhaegar to fight for him or lose his family to hideous painful deaths -- something that would not happen if Rhaegar had foresaken them for the new love of his life. The KG are at the ToJ on Aerys' orders, not Rhaegars, doing what they should be doing as honorable knights who have sworn holy vows to obey their king. Ned makes the promise to Lyanna because he knows she is not really the cause of all this -- although he can still chide her for her wolf blood because it would not have happened without the Laughing Tree stunt. The only people who think any of this is true are ones like Robert and Selmy and Jaime (and I even wonder about Jaime), because they are not privy to the truth. There are no disconnects in this narrative, which doesn't make it true but at least it's plausible. It's not the characters who have it wrong, it's you. Did you read the World Book? Yes, Aerys thinks everyone is plotting against him, including Rhaegar, to put Rhaegar on the throne. He's felt this way for years, since Duskendale at least, and he feels so strongly by the tourny at Harrenhal that he leaves the RK, something he hasn't done in years, to put a stop to it. So yes, Rhaegar suddenly going mad and not only shaming himself before the entire realm but also severing the ties with the very lords he was conspiring against is a golden opportunity to get rid of him -- disinherit him and his family entirely and name his precious Viserys as the new crown prince. Instead, he covers for the suspect prince and then gives him an army to accomplish exactly what Aerys fears most. Sorry, but this is the single biggest disconnect in the entire episode. But, as you say, none so blind as those who refuse to see . . . Hightower commanded the royal forces during the Ninepenny Kings. Selmy slew Malys the Monstrous. Houses too many to name from the Crownlands and Dorne (but not the Reach apparently, odd) sent knights and lords into battle. Presumably, this included the Daynes, although Ser Arthur is not mentioned. He did, however, rid the Kingswood of the brotherhood, slaying the Smiling Knight while Selmy slew the leader, Simon Toyne. Hightower, meanwhile, took a would saving Elia from an attack. And, of course, Selmy also single-handedly rescued Aerys from Duskendale. All of these brave men were proving themselves and risking their lives fighting off foes while Rhaegar sat around day-dreaming and playing his lute. We don't know how old he was when he decided he "must" be a warrior, but Selmy at least said he took to it with skill but no enthusiasm. It was a chore to him, not a passion. How does having a squire qualify you to lead an army? By that logic, any two-bit hedge knight should be put in command. My narrative does fit the facts. If gives Aerys a plausible reason to suddenly trust Rhaegar with an army. Yours is the narrative that does not fit. You should fix yours. No that default does not apply to Rhaegar because Aerys had plenty of other choices to lead his army. Experienced men who have fought in battles and have led the royal army. Ned is the new Lord of Winterfell. He marched his host into the riverlands but he did not assume command of the entire rebel army. It was most likely Tully and Arryn calling the shots because they had the most experience. Scroll up. The KG betraying Aerys for Rhaegar and then Jon is a pretty well-worn theory when trying to square all the circles that exist within the kidnap/elope narrative. But it doesn't fit, just like none of the other lame excuses that are offered at all the other key disconnects. Again, you keep talking about how the facts fail my narrative. They don't. They fail yours. No one is doing as they should under your circumstances. Everyone involved is so utterly stupid that they do the exact opposite of what they should be doing -- Rhaegar, Lyanna, Ned, Aerys, the KG, nobody seems to have an ounce of sense here. But with Aerys as the instigator of all this, it all starts to balance out. L&R didn't alert the whole world of what they were doing. It was never done. The kidnap story spread so fast because Aerys made sure it did. Aerys didn't blow the perfect chance to rid himself of his son; he had to cover so that Rhaegar wouldn't spill the story of what really happened. The KG are obeying Aerys orders because that is what they are honor-bound to do. Aerys has a motive to devote his best protection to Jon because he needs him to birth a dragon. Ned understands that Lyanna did not precipitate all of this except in the most indirect way. So sorry, but since your narrative is the one that doesn't fit, except under the most unlikely, torturously stretched series of rationales, then you're the one who needs to reconsider. But anyway, it was nice chatting with you. I'm out.

So in your scenario, she was, in fact, kidnapped? If she was eloping, why would she bring a tail of guards with her, and why would these guards object to her riding off willingly with the prince? Guards are there for protection, not to order her about. Why would Rhaegar fall upon Lyanna in broad daylight, in front of a crowd of people, slay all her guards, and make off with her? Does he not care that this would send alarms throughout the kingdom and set every house in the realm to be on watch for them? Wouldn't he take even the slightest precautions to disguise himself? Only another noble would recognize Rhaegar. Commoners would only know him by his armor and his feathers. And again, this means the kidnapping happened in broad daylight in front of numerous people. Why is Rhaegar going out of his way to make sure the realm knows right away that he has done this terrible thing? And in all of the descriptions and recollections of Rhaegar, even from those who fought against him, where is there the slightest indication that he would do something so completely bonkers? If it's the prophecy he's after, why is he not taking even the slightest measures to hide what he is doing? If it's so important to him, why is he going out of his way to up the risk of getting caught before this prophecy can be fulfilled? He's going to make it up to the Starks later? How? He's just taken their only daughter and defiled her just because of some prophecy he read in a book. How on earth is he going to make this up? The only way I can see it going down this way is if he was under the influence of some spell or a love potion. Maggy the Frog makes the latter. I'd be interested to know exactly who the "friends and companions" were at this kidnapping. I agree with your last point. If R&L did in fact make off together, Lyanna was a willing participant. But this makes the existence of the kidnapping story all the more suspect because, again, if they eloped, why would they do it where anyone could see? And if the kidnapping never happened, then how did the story get started? And how could it have spread so quickly so that the first word reaching Brandon was that she had been kidnapped and not that she was just missing? Even if Lyanna could not predict the consequences of this, it was still her mad, selfish act that lead to the deaths of her father and brother and war across the land. There is no reason why Ned would need to promise her anything after this.

So they didn't bother to elope at night. They didn't bother to hide their identities. There are only a few hundred people in the entire world who know what they look like up close, and yet someone from far away just happened to see this rendezvous and was able to identify them as Rhaegar and Lyanna . . . Sorry, none of this is even plausible let alone likely. Someone spread this false tale, deliberately. He could take her to Dragonstone and no one would ever know she was there. And no one would have any reason to suspect Rhaegar in her disappearance, unless, of course, they went out of their way to make sure he could be connected to it. If Rhaegar is so worried about what the Starks would do or what Aerys would do, then why is he not taking even the most basic steps to keep it a secret that he has Lyanna at all? The fact is, we don't know that Rhaegar did anything. There is nothing in the text, absolutely nothing, that confirms Rhaegar was with Lyanna at any time after Harrenhal. So Lyanna runs off with Rhaegar willingly and then remains completely ignorant about everything that followed? Hightower certainly had no problem finding them. And even if she could not have predicted the fallout, it still occurred because of her selfishness. She defied her father's wishes that she marry Robert and ran off to have an illegitimate child with the prince. Everything else that happened was caused by her decision to do this. So sorry, but no, there is no reason why Ned would or should simply brush this off to make such a life-altering promise. The romantic love story surrounding RLJ is the narrative that doesn't fit. Not one single person in this entire drama is doing what they should be doing if this is what happened. Making up excuses for the highly implausible over and over again is not finding a narrative that fits the facts. It's turning a blind eye to what really happened. Aerys is highly suspicious that Rhaegar is trying to steal his crown, has been since before Duskendale. He went all the way to Harrenhal to put a stop to it. Now here is the perfect opportunity to get rid of him, but Aerys actually covers for him. Yet another person in the long list of persons doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing. Aerys doted on Viserys. He had the KG watch over him 24/7. Even Rhaella could not be alone with him. He had the milk from his wet nurse tasted. He burnt all the gifts sent by all the lords of Westeros. And Vis was immediately named heir right after the Trident, even though Aegon was still alive. Does that sound like bullshit to you? Have you read the book? What battles had Rhaegar fought before the Trident? What armies had he led? He wasn't even at Duskendale. Rhaegar has zero military experience, has never even swung a sword in anger, unlike Dayne, Hightower, Lewyn and probably a half dozen other available lords. There is absolutely no reason why Aerys would want to give his son an army if he knew that Rhaegar was capable of such madness and was desirous of the throne. Ned was the newly-made Lord of Winterfell; command fell to him by default, as it did with Robert. Jon Arryn was an experienced commander, as was Hoster Tully. Yes, the KG turning their cloaks on Aerys in favor of Rhaegar is a bullshit narrative. That was my point, and yet large numbers of readers accept this anyway. So if that's not what happened, then why were they there? How could stealing Lyanna not have been mad? What outcome should D, H and W have expected? It goes against everything noble, honorable and chivalrous that they supposedly stand for. In your "narrative that fits the facts" are all three of these nights just faking it? They're actually depraved scumbags like Whent and Blount? So yes I agree, we need to find a narrative that fits the facts. Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna does not fit the facts. Lyanna running away with Rhaegar does not fit the facts. Aerys suddenly welcoming Rhaegar back into his trust does not fit the facts. Three KG turning traitor to their king does not fit the facts. You know what does fit the facts? Rhaegar having nothing to do with this and it was Aerys who kidnapped them both and then grew increasingly desperate as the situation grew out of control.

Sorry, but you missed my point. How would anyone even know that Lyanna ran off with anyone, let alone Rhaegar, unless they went out of their way to make it known? Why would they not take even the simplest steps to keep their elopement a secret? If this was an elopement, then the first word that anything was wrong should have been that Lyanna was missing, which would have put House Stark on immediate alert, not casually planning a wedding. And the fact remains that we don't know that they met up at all. That's merely the story the some unknown person told to Brandon, and it is a highly unlikely story for the reasons I mentioned above. Only a handful of people know Rhaegar Targaryen by sight, so it is unlikely that any commoners would know who he was unless he came along with his distinctive armor and features with his white-blonde hair blowing in the wind -- not even a hooded cloak to keep him warm in the dead of winter. And again, this would mean he and Lyanna chose to elope in a public place, in broad daylight, publicly identifying themselves to a bunch of strangers. Why? If Lyanna is willingly eloping with Rhaegar, then why is she bringing others to their rendezvous? And why are they meeting up in a place where anyone would see them rather than some secret spot, such as the laughing tree? If Rhaegar doesn't care what the rest of the realm thinks about him and Lyanna, why should he care what his wife thinks? He's abandoning her anyway or, as some would have it, she is perfectly fine with him seeking someone else to produce the third head of the dragon. And the only reason he would have to worry about someone looking for him in relation to Lyanna's disappearance is if he simply snatched her in front of a bunch of strangers without taking the slightest measure to hide his identity. So again, does Rhaegar honestly think himself to be so untouchable that he can do this with no repercussions? Rhaegar is not basing his decisions as a character in a story. He is basing them on real-world circumstances. Martin takes great pains to ensure his characters act and react in a realistic manner, not to simplify the story. If he thought like that, the series would be finished by now. According to the elopement theory, she had to have been OK with all of the fallout from her utterly selfish decision. Is she with Rhaegar willingly or not? Her wolf blood led her to get involved at Harrenhal, which was the start of all this trouble. But in the end he forgives her and agrees to help her when things spun out of her control. If she was a willing participant with Rhaegar while her family is being killed and blood is being spilt across the land, that is an entirely different manner. And it apparently didn't take Hightower long to find out where they were, so they could not have been completely ignorant over the fallout of their incredibly selfish decision. The prevailing theory is that the vow the KG swore was to Rhaegar as their new king, and then to Jon has his rightful heir. But that is bunk because if either this kidnap or elopement story is true then Rhaegar has shown himself to be just as mad, if not madder, than his father. The evidence is as I showed you. It's counter-evidence, actually, because it highlights the series of extremely unlikely reactions from numerous players in this little drama if the kidnap/elopement story is true. However, they do fit the scenario in which Aerys is the instigator here. Not proof by any means, but at least it fits plausibly with what we actually know. And, of course, you could still wind up with RLJ even if Rhaegar did not make off with Lyanna.

OK, but if Lyanna did run off willingly, then how did the kidnap story start? Why would they meet up in a public place where people know who they are? Why would they go anywhere they can be identified? Why take her all the way across the country to some bleak tower in the marches when Dragonstone is only a short boat trip away? And why would Lyanna be OK with this scurrilous story about the love of her life being a kidnapper and a child-rapist, particularly when the situation devolves to the point where her father and brother are being tortuously executed in the Red Keep and the realm goes to war with itself? And why would Ned feel obligated to make this life-altering promise to a sister who was perfectly willing to sacrifice all their lives just so she could be happy with her prince? No, we have no conclusive proof that Aerys did any of these things. All we have are the myriad ways he acted after the supposed kidnapping. For years now, Aerys has suspected Rhaegar of trying to steal his crown, and now suddenly Rhaegar goes and does something like this. Yet, when Brandon comes banging at his gates, Aerys not only covers for Rhaegar but executes his accusers. Why? This would have been the perfect opportunity to expose his son for the madman that he is and at the very least disinherit him while naming his favorite, Viserys, as the new Prince of Dragonstone. And then he goes even further by putting Rhaegar -- who has zero military experience and has never even been in a battle let alone commanded a host -- in charge of an army that can be used to usurp the crown. But we can see Aerys doing this if he was the kidnapper. He can't produce Rhaegar at this point because Rhaegar would just spill the whole story. It's only after Aerys gets ahold of Elia and the children can he now compel Rhaegar to come back and fight for him and ensure that he won't make a grab for the throne. And finally, the KG at the tower. Supposedly, they have turned their cloaks on Aerys in order to support Rhaegar. All three of them at once? And somehow they still retain the reputation as being among the most noble, honorable kights that chivalry has ever produced? And they apparently have had enough of Aerys' madness so now they will support a prince who has just committed an act that is far madder than anything Aerys has done? But if they know Rhaegar is innocent in all of this, they just might do this. Or alternatively, they very well may been at the ToJ on Aerys' orders, making an additional vow that they would stay there even if they received word of Aerys' death -- probably not knowing that his intention is to sacrifice the baby to the flames in order to hatch a dragon egg, just like what was supposed to happen to Rhaegar at Summerhall and just like what Dany did with Rhaego's remains on Drogo's pyre. And no, Jaime, Selmy, Lewyn and Derry were not privy to this because they didn't have to be. So regardless of whether the kidnapping is true or not, this whole story leads to an endless series of conflicts with the text. Everyone is doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing. There may not be evidence to support ALJ to the exclusion of all other possibilities, but there is a wealth of evidence that disputes RLJ.

Actually, we don't know anything about either of their whereabouts after Harrenhal. All we know is that some unknown person rode up to Brandon and told him Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. Most people believe that the kidnapping part is a lie, but the fact is the whole thing could have been a lie. Like I said, unless Rhaegar was so mad that he just snatched her in a very public way and damn the consequences, then the only other possibilities are that he either took her quietly and secretly or they both ran off together quietly and secretly, and there would be no reason to think they were together for days or weeks or ever. And if that is the case, then the first indication that anything was wrong would be that Lyanna was missing, not that she'd been kidnapped, by the crown prince no less. And then all of House Stark would have instantly gone into crisis mode not casually been meandering down the kingsroad for a wedding. So everything about this story is suspect IMO. There is far more reason to believe that it is all a lie, that they were both taken separately, were never together, did not make a baby. And the only person who has the means and the motivation to do this is Aerys.

I have a hard time squaring Lyanna being so uncaring about what people think to the point where her father and brother are being tortured and executed in the Red Keep (not to mention setting the realm at war with itself) with Ned finding it in his heart not only to forgive her but to then agree to a life-altering promise to supposedly protect the product of this selfish love. Remember, this promise was made right after Ned lost five of his closest companions and slew three of the most honorable knights in the kingdom, one of whom, Dayne, Ned revered above all others -- all because of Lyanna's incredible selfishness. Surely there would have been other options for Jon than Ned shaming himself (and Catelyn) with a bastard. He could have been left at any nearby sept and nobody would have been the wiser. But yes, if the kidnapping story is true, this is the only way it could have happened: in broad daylight, in front of numerous people, all of whom would know immediately that this is Prince Rhaegar Targeryan and Lady Lyanna Stark and would spread the tale immediately. So why would Rhaegar do this so openly and obviously? Why does he want people to know that this is what he's done? What in Rhaegar's past and in any of the recollections about him would lead us to believe that he is this cruel and reckless? And why would not one, not two, but three kingsguard -- among the most honorable and revered knights in the land -- decide that they've had enough of Aerys' madness to support Rhaegar when Rhaegar himself has just committed an act of sheer madness? Even Aerys did not kidnap and rape the teenage daughter of a high lord. And even Aegon the Unworthy did not lose three KG at once, even after he had one of them torn to pieces and had trashed the reputation of the Lord Commander, his own brother, after the LC saved Aegon's life from assassins.

I would still wonder where Rhaegar was all this time when his reputation was being smeared and Starks were in King's Landing calling for his head. And then Lyanna never had a baby, was not at the ToJ? Was there a fight with the KG there? Over what? And what would the promise be about, and what did Lyanna die of in her bed of blood?

The elopement story has even less support than the kidnap story, IMP. If Rhaegar and Co simply fell on Lyanna and dragged her away, then we can see how this story got out so quickly. But if she ran off with him by choice, how could the kidnap story have even started? We'd have to believe that they met up at some public place, where people would know them on sight (which is very few people, actually), and then stage it to look like Lyanna is being taken against her will. And then neither of them cares that Rhaegar is now seen as this mad kidnapper and child rapist, nor do they care that this little stunt is costing Lyanna the lives of her father and brothers and setting the realm to war with itself. And then we get not one, not two, but three kingsguard who supposedly have had enough of Aerys' madness to betray him only to throw their loyalty to a now equally mad prince? So my lead theory is that Rhaegar had nothing to do with Lyanna's disappearance, they were never together after Harrenhal and Rhaegar is not the father of the Lyanna's baby. Instead, I can see Aerys kidnapping them both separately, fathering the child on Lyanna, and then telling the KG to guard her even if they hear news of his death and the destruction of King's Landing. Then Aerys would arrive, either in human or dragon form, and use Jon to hatch an egg, just like what was supposed to happen to Rhaegar at Summerhall and what Dany accomplished with Rhaego on the pyre. Alternately, I can see Rhaegar suddenly going mad and actually kidnapping Lyanna, but only if he was magicked into doing it, either through a spell or perhaps a love potion -- and the three KG know that this is what happened.