Was there any foreshadowing for Aegon living?

[purple-eyes]

Only after varys saw aegon was unrecognizable, then he made a kid as a pretender. This fit the normal logic. 

[bent branch]

The one thing that repeatedly gets over looked in these arguments over whether someone would have recognized that the baby wasn't Aegon if the baby wasn't Aegon is that practically none of the people who saw the corpse would have had any acquaintance with the child. They wouldn't have needed much of match to fool people who had never seen the child.

[finger]

Moreover, as Kevan says, Tywin presented two corpses as Rhaegar's children. Who'd dare dub him a liar? He could have presented a baby form Ibben or the Summer Islands and Pycelle and the others would swear it was Aegon.

As for the real corpse, a very faint hint is left. If Aerys raped Ashara in HH, and she got pregnant, the baby could perfectly well look like his nephew Aegon. There's a similar story at the Wall with Mance's son and Gilly's. And nobody seems to care if they were alike, or why Val looks after "monster" so fiercely, not been anything to her. Or it's no so faint? Anyhow, it could have been some Lysene whore's son.

[Amris]

I do not know whether Aegon is who he thinks he is or not.

However I'd like to point out that the argument 'he must be a fake because there is no way Varys could have known that the baby's head would get smashed in' is not compellent.

Actually Varys could have known. Easily.

It is really simple: Varys could have planned from the start to smash in the baby's head himself, counting on that it would be blamed on Gregor.

Is Gregor the guy to go around and say: "Look - I have a well-deserved reputation for utmost brutality. And I raped and killed Elia and murdered Rhaenys. But cross my heart: I did not smash in the baby's head. This wasn't me! I wouldn't do something like that!"

Come on. Gregor would never protest this. And even if he did no one would believe him.

But - but - how would Varys have gotten to the baby, you say?

We get shown over and over that the Red Keep is riddled with secret passages and that Varys knows them extremely well.

And there are actually several more possibilities on how Varys' plan may have gone down. But the above one is the most likely IMO.

- A variation of this is that Varys had planned to smash in Aegon's head himself but never needed to because Gregor obligingly did it himself.

- Another variation is that Varys had originally thought it likely the baby-switch would be discovered fairly soon but did the switch anyway just to win a little time for getting Aegon away. And then Gregor smashed in the baby's head and thus gave Varys' plan a push that Varys had never counted on.

This of course does not mean that the Blackfyre theory must be wrong. It is a cool theory and it might yet be borne out. But the argument 'Varys couldn't have known in advance' isn't one. Aegon could have been switched before the baby's head was smashed in. Then again he could also not have been switched. All we have really is Varys's word for it. He may be lying about it - or not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[finger]

There's something about Varys scarcely taken into account. He was serving as Master of Whispers, or whatever, with Aerys, and he kept his office with Robert. Tywin had been Aerys' Hand, his loyalty was dubious, and he earned his trust, together with making his daughter the queen, by presenting Robert the corpses of Rhaegar's children as a token. Still, he was nor received at court, nor was he a member of the council, but returned to Casterly Rock. What price did Varys pay?

I don't recall this is stated nowhere in the book, so there's no way but speculating. If there had been a baby swap and Varys knew it, he could have told to Tywin as a token of his allegiance. Knowing this, Tywin would know how to act, as he did. IF it was so, it'd be a huge secret to be kept between Varys and Tywin. Tywin would reward him by, above all, sparing his live and then by speaking in his favour so that Varys can keep his office and his seat in the council. Between them Varys would pass as a Tywin's man, and himself tells Ned that Cersei believes he's hers.

Otoh, knowing that Aegon can be still around (he might have dead of illness, or something), Varys feels free to raise an Aegon of his own.

I couldn't tell if the story will go on this way, but at the least the theory fits the facts.

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Amris said:

It is really simple: Varys could have planned from the start to smash in the baby's head himself, counting on that it would be blamed on Gregor.

That is very close to what I said in previous threads. The smashed baby head is too convenient. I could well believe Gregor killed the boy. He admitted it to Oberyn:

I killed her screaming whelp...
Then I raped her...
Then I smashed her fucking head in. Like this.

But Varys could have come after. Check the baby, kill him if it was not done yet. And smash the head so that Illirio's son, ie fake Aegon, could replace him. Most likely, the fake was already born, who he was looking like already known. The plan already started. This way, IMO, very little is left to chance and opportunity.

For the credibility of a fake passing unnoticed. In our societies, when someone dies, and there is the slightest, slightest chance of confusion, the police or justice requests that someone close comes to identify the body. Why do you think Tywin and the lords would not ask the same? This was chaos time, lots of people dead and missing. The true Aegon could have gone unnoticed. And we are speaking of the kingdom's heir, not a random boy. In England, if what I read is true, the lords were present in the Queen's chamber, to attest, at birth, of the identify of the new heir. So I don't think Westeros people were so sloppy about Aegon identity.

[bent branch]

Fact: Aegon was born on Dragonstone.

Fact: People known to be alive who had been on Dragonstone around the time of Aegon's birth: one - Jon Connington.

Fact: People known to witness the children's bodies in the throne room who it was impossible for them to have ever seen Aegon: Four - Tywin, Kevan, Robert, Eddard.

Fact: People in the throne room who could attest that the body presented was the child they knew as Aegon, son of Rhaegar: two - Pycelle and Jaime. However, neither of these two could testify that this child was the same child born on Dragonstone.

These facts make it vanishingly small that there was anyone in the throne room qualified to identify the body of little Aegon Targaryen. These facts are the reason Kevan says that Tywin told them that it was the body of Aegon Targaryen and no one questioned him, but it was possible that the Aegon he was hearing about was indeed Rhaegar's son. We hear directly from Kevan that there was plenty of room for doubt that the child's body laid before Robert was Aegon. Despite this, the "Aegon is fake" crowd keep insisting that surely someone, somewhere positively identified the body. This is profoundly wishful thinking. We don't have a positive ID on the child's body.

 

[Lord Varys]

In addition, we have to ask ourselves what Varys' original plan with Aegon was if there was a baby swap. We know this kind of trick/deception happens all the time, really. The miller's boys are passed for as Bran and Rickon, Tommen is sent in disguise to Rosby, Rosamund Lannister is essentially a Myrcella lookalike, Jon Snow swaps the sons of Mance and Craster, respectively (a deceit nobody sees through despite the fact that quite a lot of people at Castle Black actually should have seen both children, too!).

If Varys and Elia saved the real Aegon by putting a different child in the cradle then 'the Aegon plan' wasn't necessarily a part of that early deception yet. The goal back then would have been to save Rhaegar's son who apparently also was the promised prince.

Only the way of Aegon's death made the entire Aegon plan later on possible. If Robert hadn't killed the boy the Aegon plan wouldn't have been possible the way it was in light of the manner of his death (Robert could have raised him as his ward and made him a septon/maester or a black brother later on). Had the fake Prince Aegon died months or years later as the real Prince Aegon with no one ever questioning his identity the Aegon would have been very difficult to implement, too. If there is no doubt that a person is dead, then it is very difficult for an impostor to play that role - be the impostor the real guy or not.

If you are separated from your family as a child and somebody else lives and dies in your place with them it would be very difficult for you to prove you are the son of your parents when you finally return - at least in a world with no paternity tests.

Granted, Varys could have cast doubt on Aegon's identity if the fake boy hadn't been killed by Gregor or Robert, and he could have taken steps so that his own deception was revealed, but whether this would have had any effect is difficult to determine.

Robert and Tywin had any reason to believe that their Aegon - the dead or captured Aegon - was the real Aegon, and they, not Varys or some exiles, are the people with the power and authority to make such decisions.

Varys tampering with Aegon's body is a very unlikely scenario because the boy and Elia were killed in Maegor's Holdfast. There is but one secret passage in that part of the castle, and that one seems to be ending in the king's own apartments (it is a secret escape route Maegor built in to get out of the castle, and it is not connected to any of the listening post tunnels - it clearly is the secret escape way Aegon II and his children used when they fled the Red Keep during the Dance).

I could see Varys using the confusion during the Sack to swap the children with Elia's support, but I very much doubt he could hang out there when/after they were all murdered. Gregor and his gang would have killed him, too.

But it actually more likely that the children were swapped at an earlier point if there was such a swap. Varys and Elia would have been concerned for Aegon after Aerys had decided not to send Elia and the children to Dragonstone, and they would have had time enough to make the swap long before the Sack.

[purple-eyes]

6 hours ago, bent branch said:

Fact: Aegon was born on Dragonstone.

Fact: People known to be alive who had been on Dragonstone around the time of Aegon's birth: one - Jon Connington.

Fact: People known to witness the children's bodies in the throne room who it was impossible for them to have ever seen Aegon: Four - Tywin, Kevan, Robert, Eddard.

Fact: People in the throne room who could attest that the body presented was the child they knew as Aegon, son of Rhaegar: two - Pycelle and Jaime. However, neither of these two could testify that this child was the same child born on Dragonstone.

These facts make it vanishingly small that there was anyone in the throne room qualified to identify the body of little Aegon Targaryen. These facts are the reason Kevan says that Tywin told them that it was the body of Aegon Targaryen and no one questioned him, but it was possible that the Aegon he was hearing about was indeed Rhaegar's son. We hear directly from Kevan that there was plenty of room for doubt that the child's body laid before Robert was Aegon. Despite this, the "Aegon is fake" crowd keep insisting that surely someone, somewhere positively identified the body. This is profoundly wishful thinking. We don't have a positive ID on the child's body.

 

Aegon must have wet nurse and a lot of servants. 

They can be summoned to identify aegon. 

Maester of dragonstone is even more able to do this. 

GRRM knew people can recognize aegon so he designed this "smashed" plot. 

By the way, there is no way pycelle did not know how aegon looks like. He is the chief maester. Aegon must be under his care for half year at least. 

And after aegon was born, he should have been presented to the court too. People knew him. Hair and eye colors can not represent everything. If he had a sharp nose but this dead baby has a pug nose, then people will know he is a fake. 

[BalerionTheCat]

How much time Elia and her children had been at the RK before the sack?
How many people came with her from Dragonstone?
How many ladies came to see the new heir? How many serving women were working there?

[bent branch]

2 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

Aegon must have wet nurse and a lot of servants. 

They can be summoned to identify aegon. 

Maester of dragonstone is even more able to do this. 

GRRM knew people can recognize aegon so he designed this "smashed" plot. 

By the way, there is no way pycelle did not know how aegon looks like. He is the chief maester. Aegon must be under his care for half year at least. 

And after aegon was born, he should have been presented to the court too. People knew him. Hair and eye colors can not represent everything. If he had a sharp nose but this dead baby has a pug nose, then people will know he is a fake. 

Basically you're just making the somebody, somewhere argument. And my response to that is fine, but we haven't been introduced to them yet. Some people think we never will be introduced to this impeccable witness and Aegon's identity will remain forever a mystery. Others, myself included, think we will be introduced to the person who can definitively identify Aegon. The difference between you and me is that I recognize that Aegon hasn't yet been definitely identified and that when this happens, Aegon may be proven the son of Rhaegar.

[BalerionTheCat]

13 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Basically you're just making the somebody, somewhere argument. And my response to that is fine, but we haven't been introduced to them yet. Some people think we never will be introduced to this impeccable witness and Aegon's identity will remain forever a mystery. Others, myself included, think we will be introduced to the person who can definitively identify Aegon. The difference between you and me is that I recognize that Aegon hasn't yet been definitely identified and that when this happens, Aegon may be proven the son of Rhaegar.

And who is the wishful thinker? I didn't say "Aegon has been identified. So the Young Griff is fake!"
I just said it was unlikely Varys could pass a Pisswater boy for a royal prince. BTW of uncommon features.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

Aegon must have wet nurse and a lot of servants. 

They can be summoned to identify aegon. 

Maester of dragonstone is even more able to do this. 

GRRM knew people can recognize aegon so he designed this "smashed" plot. 

By the way, there is no way pycelle did not know how aegon looks like. He is the chief maester. Aegon must be under his care for half year at least. 

And after aegon was born, he should have been presented to the court too. People knew him. Hair and eye colors can not represent everything. If he had a sharp nose but this dead baby has a pug nose, then people will know he is a fake. 

The idea someone can identify a boy of seventeen or eighteen as the same as a boy of less than one year old when last you saw them is silly. Aside from a identifying birth mark on his ass, there is no way to tell. Sorry to all of you who haven't seen the Court Jester with Danny Kaye and miss the tongue-in-cheek reference. In the real world or in Martin's world there is no way to tell.

That doesn't mean there isn't someone who can identify Aegon. Not only is there someone who can do so, but they must do so in order for the plot to succeed. That person is Septa Lemore.

The biggest problem Varys and Illyrio face is convincing the lords of Westeros, Prince Doran in the first place, the young man is not a pretender is the 5 year gap. When Jon Connington was exiled after the Battle of the Bells he went to the Golden Company and rose in their ranks. He was not in Westeros when King's Landing fell, or when this baby swap/smuggling allegedly took place. He can't vouch for what happened during that time or for the next five years he was a member of the Golden Company. Haldon the Half-maester was with him. Ser Duck comes later. Only Septa Lemore, of the whole company is likely to be able to have knowledge of those five years. She has to be the witness to who this baby was and the one who convinced Connington this was not just a plot of Varys for his advantage.

How did she do that? How will she convince the Martells this is Aegon? Because of who she is. The Lady Ashara Dayne. There really isn't another figure from that time who would be trusted to help smuggle out Aegon, and who can make others believe the story. That is true if she is telling the truth or if she is lying through her teeth. She is the critical element in this story.

Now, for purposes of full disclosure, I should say I think she will be lying when she identifies Young Griff as Rhaegar's son, but the why of it is another story.

[purple-eyes]

2 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The idea someone can identify a boy of seventeen or eighteen as the same as a boy of less than one year old when last you saw them is silly.

That doesn't mean there isn't someone who can identify Aegon. Not only is there someone who can do so, but they must do so in order for the plot to succeed. That person is Septa Lemore.

The biggest problem Varys and Illyrio face is convincing the lords of Westeros, Prince Doran in the first place, the young man is not a pretender is the 5 year gap. When Jon Connington was exiled after the Battle of the Bells he went to the Golden Company and rose in their ranks. He was not in Westeros when King's Landing fell, or when this baby swap/smuggling allegedly took place. He can't vouch for what happened during that time or for the next five years he was a member of the Golden Company. Haldon the Half-maester was with him. Ser Duck comes later. Only Septa Lemore, of the whole company is likely to be able to have knowledge of those five years. She has to be the witness to who this baby was and the one who convinced Connington this was not just a plot of Varys for his advantage.

How did she do that? How will she convince the Martells this is Aegon? Because of who she is. The Lady Ashara Dayne. There really isn't another figure from that time who would be trusted to help smuggle out Aegon, and who can make others believe the story. That is true if she is telling the truth or if she is lying through her teeth. She is the critical element in this story.

Now, for purposes of full disclosure, I should say I think she will be lying when she identifies Young Griff as Rhaegar's son, but the why of it is another story.

Honestly if aegon is really son of Elia, there is no way that they did not secretly contact Dorne over so many years. Apparently doran and oberyn knew nothing about aegon. And this is the biggest proof that aegon is fake, IMHO. If GRRM declares Aegon is real, then this will become another plot hole. 

Who is more trustful and more beneficial and more powerful to raise aegon? A JonCon who just a friend of rhaegar and a poor sellsword? Or prince of Dorne who is his uncle? This is like lyanna gave jon to arthur dayne in stead of ned stark. 

So I completely believe aegon is fake, which will automatically make lemore not ashara. 

Ashara is dead. I will put more money on lemore to be the aryyn daughter than ashara. 

[SFDanny]

3 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Honestly if aegon is really son of Elia, there is no way that they did not secretly contact Dorne over so many years. Apparently doran and oberyn knew nothing about aegon. And this is the biggest proof that aegon is fake, IMHO. If GRRM declares Aegon is real, then this will become another plot hole. 

Who is more trustful and more beneficial and more powerful to raise aegon? A JonCon who just a friend of rhaegar and a poor sellsword? Or prince of Dorne who is his uncle? This is like lyanna gave jon to arthur dayne in stead of ned stark. 

So I completely believe aegon is fake, which will automatically make lemore not ashara. 

Ashara is dead. I will put more money on lemore to be the aryyn daughter than ashara. 

I only bet fantasy money, but I've million fantasy golden dragons I'd bet you on this. Or I did have them somewhere around here... hmm. I'll have to ask my fantasy representative of the Iron Bank to back me on the bet, but as soon as he steps back in I'll let you know.

btw - did you see my edit?

[purple-eyes]

23 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I only bet fantasy money, but I've million fantasy golden dragons I'd bet you on this. Or I did have them somewhere around here... hmm. I'll have to ask my fantasy representative of the Iron Bank to back me on the bet, but as soon as he steps back in I'll let you know.

btw - did you see my edit?

I think I read it after your editing. 

So yes, I saw that. 

Ashara probably knew how aegon looks like and I agree she can identify aegon. 

Although she did not have much time to stay with aegon if she was pregnant and sent away. 

[SFDanny]

1 minute ago, purple-eyes said:

I think I read it after your editing. 

So yes, I saw that. 

Ashara probably knew how aegon looks like and I agree she can identify aegon. 

Although she did not have much time to stay with aegon if she was pregnant and sent away. 

Just wanted to make sure you saw the Court Jester reference I added. Hope you have seen the movie.

The thing about Ashara isn't that she had some special relationship with Aegon as a baby in King's Landing, but that she had a special relationship with Elia and with Rhaegar that makes it possible they would trust her with their child, and as she is gone from Westeros from late 283 to the present she could conceivably convince others of Elia's and Rhaegar's friends that she was missing in order to raise their son in hiding from Robert's hatred. Connington can't do that. Septa Lemore revealed as Ashara can.

[purple-eyes]

31 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Just wanted to make sure you saw the Court Jester reference I added. Hope you have seen the movie.

The thing about Ashara isn't that she had some special relationship with Aegon as a baby in King's Landing, but that she had a special relationship with Elia and with Rhaegar that makes it possible they would trust her with their child, and as she is gone from Westeros from late 283 to the present she could conceivably convince others of Elia's and Rhaegar's friends that she was missing in order to raise their son in hiding from Robert's hatred. Connington can't do that. Septa Lemore revealed as Ashara can.

Sorry, I have not seen that movie at all. 

Sure, ashara can serve as a great proof if she told JonCon or doran this is real aegon. 

But if aegon is fake, why would ashara agree to cover up for varys? 

Or you mean varys firstly lied to her, then she again unintentionally lied to JonCon? 

So Ashara is another female JonCon who chose to believe what she wanted to believe due to her genuine love or friendship with Elia? That will be hard since ashara should have more chance to look at real aegon when he was young than JonCon. 

 

[Lord Varys]

I agree with SFDanny that Septa Lemore may be the ace up Varys/Illyrio's sleeve to vouch for Aegon's identity, but I'm not convinced that she'll turn out to be Ashara Dayne. Tyrion considers Lemore to be 'more handsome than pretty' and if the Ashara didn't become much more beautiful in Barristan's memory these two most certainly aren't the same person. An exceptionally good-looking still looks exceptionally good in her forties.

Granted, we don't get her eye color so Lemore could have haunting purple or violet eyes, and Lemore's dark brown hair is close enough to Ashara's dark hair that the colors might fit, but it is still a stretch.

Not to mention the convoluted story of Varys having to reach out to Ashara to recruit her for his plan, fake her death, convince her to go along with that for whatever reason. With the knowledge we have that's a little bit too far-fetched. I don't see any reason why Ashara would participate in such a deception.

I'm more inclined to believe that Lemore is Aegon's mother if he is not Rhaegar's son. The Serra story could just be distraction and/or the part about Serra being dead might be. Varys/Illyrio give Connington the impression he is pretty much in charge of the Aegon operation but that is most likely a carefully crafted illusion. They would want to be in control of their golden boy, and that's not going to work if Connington - the guy who cannot know certain things - is in charge. If I were Varys or Illyrio one of the members of Aegon's gang would be a person I could trust completely - that's not the case for Connington, Rolly, Yandry/Ysilla (who have already left), and Haldon (who gives to impression to work for Connington). But it could be true for Lemore.

I'm not really sure the story George is going to tell demands that anyone vouches for Aegon's identity. Varys has set the stage for this Targaryen restoration, and if he has done his homework then nobody will care. Everyone will want to believe that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. The chests most likely will contain certain tokens once in the possession of young Aegon, Elia, and Rhaegar. If Aegon presents things like that people challenging his claim should quickly be silenced. If Varys could have stolen stuff like that - and he most certainly could have - he could also have smuggled the young prince to safety.

I personally don't expect some boring 'people disputing Aegon's heritage' story (we already had that with Stannis and Joffrey/Tommen and it led to nowhere) or some guy stepping forth to reveal the dreadful truth that Aegon is an impostor. If Aegon has success nobody will care about any of that, and while he doesn't have success in the field nobody will believe his claim that he is the real deal anyway.

I expect this plot to become interesting behind the scenes - what happens if Aegon, Arianne, Connington, etc. find out that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son - because, you know, Illyrio eventually tells Aegon? He might do just that - after all, if the boy is his son he most likely will want to spend the remainder of his life with him rather than return to Pentos. Not to mention that we don't have any idea about Aegon's own memories. The boy was raised at Illyrio's manse for his first few years, and may actually remember certain things after his reunion with Illyrio.

I don't think there is a person alive who can testify that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son (aside from Lemore if she is actually Aegon's mother, of course). Varys and Illyrio most likely killed all people with such knowledge (if they ever existed). The Tattered Prince might know stuff about Varys/Illyrio's youth and past, but them being some obscure Targaryen/Blackfyre descendants doesn't mean they couldn't have saved Rhaegar's son nor does it disprove they did not (just as they actually helped Viserys III in his exile and arranged Dany's wedding instead of, you know, just cutting their throats while their were in their grasp - like 'real Blackfyres' most likely would have done).

[SFDanny]

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I agree with SFDanny that Septa Lemore may be the ace up Varys/Illyrio's sleeve to vouch for Aegon's identity, but I'm not convinced that she'll turn out to be Ashara Dayne. Tyrion considers Lemore to be 'more handsome than pretty' and if the Ashara didn't become much more beautiful in Barristan's memory these two most certainly aren't the same person. An exceptionally good-looking still looks exceptionally good in her forties.

Granted, we don't get her eye color so Lemore could have haunting purple or violet eyes, and Lemore's dark brown hair is close enough to Ashara's dark hair that the colors might fit, but it is still a stretch.

Not really a stretch. If one live on a riverboat out in the open for fifteen years, or there abouts, it will undoubtedly age one quicker that the pampered lifestyle of a court lady-in-waiting, companion to princesses.

I'm more interested in why you think people who don't like to be tricked, aka the Prince of Dorne, would accept Young Griff's tale without Ashara to vouch for it?