R+L=J v.160

[J. Stargaryen]

On 4/14/2016 at 11:33 PM, Rippounet said:

Just an idea I'd like to throw here (because there are so many regulars/veterans of the forum on this thread).
Did anyone ever theorize that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to trigger the rebellion on purpose? In other words, that his initial plan could have been to abduct Lyanna, keep her safe during the course of the war, and then negotiate a truce with the rebels that would result in him taking the throne?

I theorized variations on this idea. For example, Rhaegar wasn't necessarily trying to trigger a full scale rebellion, but he wanted the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliance to show themselves. Perhaps he wanted to put pressure on his father, since Aerys, as the head of House Targaryen, would be the one who had to deal with Rhaegar's actions so long as the prince couldn't be found. Or maybe, Rhaegar wanted the STAB alliance to show themselves, so that his father would see them as a threat that needed to be dealt with.

Whether the kidnapping of Lyanna was politically motivated or not, there's no getting around the fact that kidnapping her would have political consequences (though not necessarily all out war, mind you). Since this would have been bloody obvious to Rhaegar and his pals, it makes me think that maybe this is what he was aiming for. Again, not necessarily civil war, but some sort of political situation or fallout.

[J. Stargaryen]

On 4/15/2016 at 1:46 PM, Rippounet said:

Anyway this is slightly besides the point. Lyanna's abduction was certain to triger a confrontation between the Starks & Baratheons and the Crown. Whether they later focused on trying to resolve the confrontation (and whether they discussed its causes) doesn't change much. The point is that Rhaegar could anticipate the fact that his actions would lead to a confrontation.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Not just anticipate, but be absolutely assured. This plot isn't even all that Machiavellian. At least not on the face of it. It doesn't require Brandon to act rashly. Rather, it simply requires him to act. And act he would, if his reaction to Lyanna's crowning at HH was any indication. But frankly, one doesn't even need to take that into account. There is simply no way houses Stark and Baratheon were going to ignore Lyanna's kidnapping by Rhaegar.

We already know that Rhaegar was attempting to play the game of thrones with the HH tourney, so I don't know why people find this idea so unlikely.

[Rippounet]

Glad I'm not alone on this one J. Stargaryen.

1 hour ago, J. Stargaryen said:

We already know that Rhaegar was attempting to play the game of thrones with the HH tourney, so I don't know why people find this idea so unlikely.

Because Martin is quite good at misleading us. For a time, the image we get of Rhaegar is that of a romantic and chivalrous prince (the harp, the tournaments), that also happens to be a bookworm (yeah bookworms!) who's into prophecy. It's not easy to see him as a political animal. The fact that he seems to spend most of the war with Lyanna kind of removes him from the political dimension. We are told at some point that Aerys mistrusted him, but it's easy to dismiss that information at first. Even Robert's accusations of rape don't get in the way of how he is presented in Dany's chapters.
That image really evolved with a World and Ice and Fire. Suddenly the Aerys-Rhaegar relationship became way more political, and Rhaegar appeared far more likely to play the game of thrones than before. That's what it took for me to realise that there was no way that Rhaegar could ignore the consequences of his actions. And yet, for a long time I thought that he had somehow been manipulated into abducting Lyanna.
But all that doesn't compute. He is the heir to the throne and obviously didn't support his father's behaviour. He must have made plans. And he had enough time to devise different ways to overthrow his father. After the failure to call a council at Harrenhal he must have come up with another scheme. Abducting Lyanna can now be seen as a political move.
 

[Marada78]

20 hours ago, Jon Weirgaryen said:

That makes at least 4 if not 5 broken promises. And there might be more.

The other ones you mentioned are not promises to Lyanna. By the quotes there is more than one promise that he did at ToJ. Onthe dreams being about already broken promises it simply doesn't compile for me, GRRM would not need to make dreams for that, he would have Ned think normally about them. In fact all the thing that you mentioned for Ned are the "prices he had to pay for the promises". The broken promises are in dreams because for now he is keeping them, but subconsciously he knows he is very close to broken them. At least this is what I find likely 

[Jon Weirgaryen]

2 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

We already know that Rhaegar was attempting to play the game of thrones with the HH tourney,

Didn't I write we cannot know this only 1 or 2 nights ago?
How do we know Rhaegar's involvement in the HH plot?

Please save me, I may have lost touch and need another reread.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

44 minutes ago, Marada78 said:

The other ones you mentioned are not promises to Lyanna. By the quotes there is more than one promise that he did at ToJ.

I (erroneously) thought you were mistaken to link all the broken promises to Lyanna and it was not necessarily so.
But you're right. Just to repeat that quote from the beginning of chapter 35 / Eddard IX:

Quote

 

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

 

 

[finger]

14 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

First, @Ygrain I do see what you mean and thank you for the reply. I see you around the streets here and know you have a good grasp on the story. 

However, in this case I kinda see it as @finger said. It was set to wildling "rules". By the end of the story (so far) Jon has identified himself as more and more a wildling and one with Ghost (of the old gods). 

Finger, if you have anything written up about what you mentioned please feel free to message it to me. 

Again, Thank you guys  

 

In sum, it's what I've said. In the civilized Westeros, Jon is raised as a bastard. It's said that his father is Ned Stark, but most people in this forum deny it. He's believed to come from the most noble birth, but still a bastard. He could be recognized, but he'd had no more rights than Edrik Storm, or Bloodraven and Blackfyre had before. Some people around have tried to solve it by imagining some poligamic marriage, under somewhat queer circumstances. I think these efforts are as useless as they're pointless, but this is not the current issue.

Otoh, the wildlings hadn't heed much of his birth, even though his supposed father is their arch-enemy. They've chosen him as their new king. Jon has taken their gold, pledged to feed them and given them shelter against their foes. When he was stabbed, he was leading them into battle. That's a king, no matter whether he's styled so. In fact, he has stolen the free people, but I'll leave it here. More could be said about his his rule in the North, with the Karstark succession and so, but this is another topic.

This interchange between Harmund and Jon is very funny because none of them know who Jon's parents are. Harmund is telling, without noticing, that according to wildlings uses Jon is not a bastard. It's not that he gives a darn for it, anyway. Jon didn't catch it either, at least then.

Of course, I don't think R+L would know or care about wildlings uses and Jon's title, as Blacfyre's, won't be better than his army, but I still enjoy the irony of the moment.

 

[J. Stargaryen]

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Glad I'm not alone on this one J. Stargaryen.

Same. Honestly, I'm a little surprised that this angle hasn't been discussed to death in these threads. Let alone hardly at all. At least as far as I can recall.

The phrase "overthinking it" is often bandied about on these forums, but overlooking the political motivation may be a genuine case of it. Let's look at the bare facts: Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna; conflict ensued between the crown and House Stark. Maybe we're not giving Rhaegar enough credit for his political savvy, or we're giving him a pass for being too nice of a guy. Maybe, generally speaking, Rhaegar's plan worked as he expected it to.

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Because Martin is quite good at misleading us. For a time, the image we get of Rhaegar is that of a romantic and chivalrous prince (the harp, the tournaments), that also happens to be a bookworm (yeah bookworms!) who's into prophecy. It's not easy to see him as a political animal. The fact that he seems to spend most of the war with Lyanna kind of removes him from the political dimension. We are told at some point that Aerys mistrusted him, but it's easy to dismiss that information at first. Even Robert's accusations of rape don't get in the way of how he is presented in Dany's chapters.
That image really evolved with a World and Ice and Fire. Suddenly the Aerys-Rhaegar relationship became way more political, and Rhaegar appeared far more likely to play the game of thrones than before. That's what it took for me to realise that there was no way that Rhaegar could ignore the consequences of his actions. And yet, for a long time I thought that he had somehow been manipulated into abducting Lyanna.
But all that doesn't compute. He is the heir to the throne and obviously didn't support his father's behaviour. He must have made plans. And he had enough time to devise different ways to overthrow his father. After the failure to call a council at Harrenhal he must have come up with another scheme. Abducting Lyanna can now be seen as a political move.
 

I don't recall exactly why this idea clicked for me when it did, but TWoIaF certainly played a part.

Agreed. At least for me, the most likely explanation for the kidnapping is one that is (at least partially) politically motivated. With the likely intent to cause conflict between the crown and STAB.

---

Fwiw, I've also said that it was to Rhaegar's benefit to sit out of the first part of the war, and make his father come to him asking for help. When things were going bad for the crown it gave Rhaegar leverage to extract concessions from his father, when Aerys finally did approach him. I further speculated that one of these concessions would have been to reaffirm or secure Rhaegar's place in the succession, and presumably his childrens' as well. Which might explain why Aerys was convinced the Dornish betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, and his reason for naming Viserys his heir afterwards. Because if Aerys had made any such promises to Rhaegar, this would have (at least presumably) placed Aegon second in line to the throne. Which, to a wildly paranoid person, would probably look like a pretty good motive for the Dornish to betray Rhaegar on the Trident. Since his death would make the half-Martell baby Aegon the new crown prince.

I don't know if this is how it went down, but it seems possible to me. While this is a fantasy story with magic and prophecy, I think it would be a mistake to overlook the inherently political motivations of kings and princes.

15 hours ago, Jon Weirgaryen said:

Didn't I write we cannot know this only 1 or 2 nights ago?
How do we know Rhaegar's involvement in the HH plot?

Please save me, I may have lost touch and need another reread.

I don't know if you did or not. We don't know for sure that Rhaegar organized the HH tourney as a covert council, but it's what we've been told, and we've not really been given much reason to doubt it. We're told that Varys whispered this to Aerys in the main series, which I guess might be a reason for some to doubt it. Heh. But it was also the prevailing rumor of the day, that Rhaegar was the shadow host of the tourney, according to TWoIaF.

That said, I don't rule out the possibility that Rhaegar was working with Tywin as a super-secret ally on this.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

1 hour ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I'm a little surprised that this angle hasn't been discussed to death in these threads. Let alone hardly at all. At least as far as I can recall.

Time to do that now.

I remember what errands Rhaegar and what errand Brandon were running in the riverlands had been mentioned as big unsolved holes in the plot. Maybe both of them were knitting their nets of allies for the upcoming Great Council. Maybe even one on behalf of the other, at first.

 

Quote

We don't know for sure that Rhaegar organized the HH tourney as a covert council, but it's what we've been told, and we've not really been given much reason to doubt it. We're told that Varys whispered this to Aerys in the main series, which I guess might be reason for some would doubt it. Heh. But it was also the prevailing rumor of the day, that Rhaegar was the shadow host of the tourney, according to TWoIaF.

That said, I don't rule out the possibility that Rhaegar was working with Tywin as a super-secret ally on this.

Ah, I see. This and myself taking world book intrigue with a maybe too-well-filled pouch of salt made me deny all of that.

Yes, could be, Rhaegar was behind it, even though it has been made public in Lannister propaganda, it still fits quite well into the story.

[Bael's Bastard]

I wouldn't rule out that the kidnapping of Lyanna was initially a political move. I have leaned toward the idea that Aerys had learned Lyanna was TKOTLT and was going go arrest her, and that Rhaegar learned of it. But I am not 100% sold on any idea as far as the why of the kidnapping.

[Rippounet]

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

 Let's look at the bare facts: Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna; conflict ensued between the crown and House Stark. Maybe we're not giving Rhaegar enough credit for his political savvy, or we're giving him a pass for being too nice of a guy. Maybe, generally speaking, Rhaegar's plan worked as he expected it to.

Yep, this is the crux of it.

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Fwiw, I've also said that it was to Rhaegar's benefit to sit out of the first part of the war, and make his father come to him asking for help. When things were going bad for the crown it gave Rhaegar leverage to extract concessions from his father, when Aerys finally did approach him.

I agree with this as well. Rhaegar could get a lot from letting the rebels and the loyalists fight for a time before intervening.

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

 I further speculated that one of these concessions would have been to reaffirm or secure Rhaegar's place in the succession, and presumably his children's as well. Which might explain why Aerys was convinced the Dornish betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, and his reason for naming Viserys his heir afterwards. Because if Aerys had made any such promises to Rhaegar, this would have (at least presumably) placed Aegon second in line to the throne. Which, to a wildly paranoid person, would probably look like a pretty good motive for the Dornish to betray Rhaegar on the Trident. Since his death would make the half-Martell baby Aegon the new crown prince.

I don't know if this is how it went down, but it seems possible to me. While this is a fantasy story with magic and prophecy, I think it would be a mistake to overlook the inherently political motivations of kings and princes.

Definitely. In fact, Martin loves to show how different plots and motications can result in unlikely consequences. We've seen this with the Wot5K, and it would be surprising if Robert's Rebellion was any different.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rhaegar negotiated something with Aerys as well. Of course, there is the counter-theory that it was Aerys that threatened Rhaegar's family to have him come back. Either way, it is certain that at some point Aerys and Rhaegar had a very serious discussion before Rhaegar accepted to lead the loyalist army to the Trident.

10 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

That said, I don't rule out the possibility that Rhaegar was working with Tywin as a super-secret ally on this.

Oooh, yes. This is something that just screamed out of the page for me.TWOAIF states that the tournament of Harrenhal required massive amount of coin, and that no one really knows where it came from. In another chapter, it's mentioned that during the defiance of Duskendale, Tywin said it didn't matter if Aerys died because "We have a better king, right here." Plus, TWOAIF taught us much about the relationship between Tywin and Aerys.
Obivously, the Lanniesters would have been an ideal source of money to organize the tournament. I don't think this is the type of thing that Yandel was trying to suggest to the people of Westeros, I think this is the authors of the book telling the readers something...

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I wouldn't rule out that the kidnapping of Lyanna was initially a political move. I have leaned toward the idea that Aerys had learned Lyanna was TKOTLT and was going go arrest her, and that Rhaegar learned of it. But I am not 100% sold on any idea as far as the why of the kidnapping.

I toyed with that idea for a long time, and it still can't be ruled out. The main problem of this theory is that if Rhaegar was merely protecting Lyanna from his father he would have did his best to send her back to her family.

[J. Stargaryen]

30 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Rhaegar negotiated something with Aerys as well. Of course, there is the counter-theory that it was Aerys that threatened Rhaegar's family to have him come back. Either way, it is certain that at some point Aerys and Rhaegar had a very serious discussion before Rhaegar accepted to lead the loyalist army to the Trident.

The problem with this counter theory is that after threatening Rhaegar's family, he would have then handed him control of the loyalist army. Aerys was wildly paranoid, not utterly stupid.

[J. Stargaryen]

If anyone is interested, here are links to (some of?) the posts I made on this topic a few months back:

 

[Rippounet]

5 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

The problem with this counter theory is that after threatening Rhaegar's family, he would have then handed him control of the loyalist army. Aerys was wildly paranoid, not utterly stupid.

Well, I suppose some things could be said here, but I'm not going to play devil's advocate tonight...
Thing is, Aerys giving an army to Rhaegar sounds like a risky move, whether Rhaegar was scheming or not, since Aerys believed he was...
And this is why it's so hard to make sense of this mess. So many things seem contradictory or paradoxical at a glance.... You just have to wonder what went through some of these characters' minds. Aerys was mad ok, but others were not...

I'm always reminded of butterbumps! thread when delving into this, and this extract in particular:

Quote

If we were to hear an account of the Wot5K 15 years after the fact, without the POV structure, detail and info-dumps, in the fashion of bits and pieces we hear of Robert's Rebellion, we'd think Ned was just instigating matters due to a Lannister grudge and that Stannis was being opportunistic. We wouldn't have confirmation of Joff's bastardy, and we'd start filling in the blanks with explanations of vengeance, irrationality and opportunism too. Ned and Stannis in particular would come across as very different characters. We'd also have absolutely no idea that Varys, LF and Pycelle were working behind the scenes to instigate the events, which would make everyone seem like irrational lunatics.

 

42 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

If anyone is interested, here are links to (some of?) the posts I made on this topic a few months back:

Thanks, I enjoyed the read. As you said we're short on answers and long on speculation, and all perspectives and theories tend to run into similar issues.

[corbon]

On 15/04/2016 at 9:06 PM, Rippounet said:

Oh. Because Rhaegar seemed only mentioned at the time of the Trident, I thought Hightower had been sent to find him shortly before that.
So now I wonder... Did Hightower take months to find Rhaegar, or did Rhaegar actually spend most of the war leading the loyalists?
 

We don't have any real idea.
If we are to speculate, I'd guess it took Hightower some time to find Rhaegar, purely on travel distances and not actually knowing where to go initially. If I was Hightower, faced with a dearth of information in KL to act upon (thats an assumption!), I'd have gone to Starfall first, given the Arthur and even Ashara/Elia connection, to look for more info.
A lot of people also abuse Rhaegar fro being away for the whole war and only turning up for the Trident at the end, but its also entirely possible he was back in KL taking charge within 6 months or less of the start of the war - including time taken for Hightower to find him and for him to return to KL from far away. But the Royalists still need to rebuild their army, plus they are waiting for the Dornish contingent to arrive plus they are probably still trying to politic Tywin in to joining up (indeed, his army must have been almost at KL already by the time the Trident was happening). So its not at all surprising if there were still considerable delays after Rhaegar returned.

But, simply put, we don't have any real clues on timing of events between BotBells and Trident.

On 15/04/2016 at 0:25 AM, Marada78 said:

If she doesn't know Ned so well then I find rather strange that just after Ned promised the fear went out of her eyes.

Really? So you can't see the difference between knowing someone so deeply that you can absolutely trust that you know what they will do in a complicated moral situation with conflicting moral pulls without even talking about it (which is what you claim) and knowing someone enough to know be able to trust their given word (which is what I claim).

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No, I think she knew Ned very well, no need to ask anything about Jon IF Jon is Lyanna son. But IF she was asking about protecting another child of Rhaegar....that's different.

How does she know Ned so well? He's spent most of the last 8-10yrs at the Eyrie, so she hasn't lived around him since she was about 6 years old.

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And sorry if I misused the word complex, I was meaning something complex for Ned, not complex to ask.

About Rhaegar being the faithful type...well he has different standards from Robert, he would never go in a brothel, but he has no problem embarassing his wife in public. I wouldn't be surprised if later we found he had relationship with Ashara (regardless of the R+A=D stuff).

There is no indication his wife was embarrassed.
But even so, thats still a far cry from unfaithfulness.

On 16/04/2016 at 8:14 AM, Rippounet said:

Absolutely.

At that point though, Robert was likely an obstacle to any negotiation. To achieve anything, Rhaegar needed to kill him.

And isn't that what he tried to do?

It seems that although the battle was going poorly, rather than retreat and regroup, Rhaegar was the one who crossed the river.

I had the impression that the battle was going quite well initially for the Targaryens. And that Rhaegar and Robert met in the shallows, not that Rhaegar crossed the river as a desperate move when losing.

On 16/04/2016 at 3:15 PM, finger said:

You've touched the sweet spot, no wonder you won't receive an answer.

It's supposed that Rhaegar was "nowhere to be found." If Hightower found him easily it'd mean that R wasn't so hidden, at least not for everybody, nor for Hightower, and we should infer not to those who sent Hightower. And, if Hightower wasn't looking for Rhaegar, since he knew where to find him, what was he doing, carrying a letter form his father? And then, there he stayed, to wait for Ned to come.

How long was the Trident from Stoney Sept? The battles, I mean. Could Hightower have passed months looking for Rhaegar? Is there time enough for that? We know from Jaime that he spent some time in KL gathering the army for the Trient, and it's not an easy thing.

8-9 months at best estimate between battles. There is plenty of potential for Hightower to have indeed spent months looking for Rhaegar.
Hightower was not involved in the gathering of the army, that was Darry and Selmy mostly.

On 16/04/2016 at 4:12 PM, Les Météores D said:

Sorry to derail this thread but I'm a bit lost with the chronology of some events. Could someone remind me if it's been hinted that R and L met more than once alone at Harrenhal during the tournament, after the KotLT incident, and what was R's supposed state of mind regarding the prophecy and the conspiracy to remove Aerys. Thanks.

It has not been hinted directly.
But, indirectly, Lyanna is by a huge huge margin the best candidate for the KotLT and Rhaegar was expressly tasked by Aerys to find this Knight. Rhaegar claimed he found only the shield, but, given that the KotLT publically told all three of his 'victims' to 'teach their squires honour', there was a huge red flag signalling how to figure out who the knight is for anyone who was as intelligent as Rhaegar is reported to have been. He need only talk to the three squires, figure out what possible dishonour the could have been involved in and who else knew of it, and its easy to see him finding Lyanna and meeting privately with her (don't know about more than once).
IMO this also provides a major reason for his naming her QoLaB. It was not a romantic thing at all (that doesn't make any sense at this stage since he's barely met her, if at all, and is still actively pursuing the three heads of the dragon prophecy with his wife Elia), but the only way he could reward her for her actions as KotLT.

23 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Not just anticipate, but be absolutely assured. This plot isn't even all that Machiavellian. At least not on the face of it. It doesn't require Brandon to act rashly. Rather, it simply requires him to act. And act he would, if his reaction to Lyanna's crowning at HH was any indication. But frankly, one doesn't even need to take that into account. There is simply no way houses Stark and Baratheon were going to ignore Lyanna's kidnapping by Rhaegar.

We already know that Rhaegar was attempting to play the game of thrones with the HH tourney, so I don't know why people find this idea so unlikely.

Yeah, but I think the way Brandon reacted threw out all calculations.

8 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Yep, this is the crux of it.

I agree with this as well. Rhaegar could get a lot from letting the rebels and the loyalists fight for a time before intervening.

Well, I think he planned for a much, much lesser confrontation and I don't think actual fighting was part of the plan.
If you think about it, the whole not being there thing should greatly reduce the options for the Starks, and greatly reduce the odds of an escalation getting out of hand. If Rhaegar and Lyanna can't be found for a start then you have a number of wins.
 - Aerys can't order her returned
 - the Starks can't use illegal force to try and get her back
 - Rhaegar is not there to be challenged (legal force)
In effect, Aerys and Rickard should be forced to talk, and possibly even agree. And even if they disagree, there is no reason for it to come to violence at that stage. There is low possibilities for escalation this way.

However, Brandon's actions threw everything awry. Who could possibly predict he would do something that had zero chance of any positive outcome and a huge negative escalation as an absolute certainty.
Brandon went KL and committed public, treasonous, assault on the crown by demanding Rhaegar come out and die. And Rhaegar wasn't even there! Disappearing should have prevented precisely this sort of stupidity (and worse, say a raid to steal Lyanna back for example) but Brandon appears to have been more stupid than anyone could possibly have predicted (I bet there was more to it than we can see, but it was still extremely stupid of him).

[J. Stargaryen]

28 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yeah, but I think the way Brandon reacted threw out all calculations.

I agree he overreacted by most measures, but I'm not sure that it necessarily mattered. If it was Rhaegar's plan to pit the Starks (as well as the Baratheons, and eventually the Tullys and Arryns) against the crown, then the plan was still on track.

And given Brandon's reaction, which could certainly be viewed as an overreaction itself, to the crowning at HH, I'm not sure that Rhaegar and co. wouldn't have been expecting something along the lines of what actually did occur. Brandon had already demonstrated that he was a hothead where his sister was concerned. He had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar, the heir to the IT, after the crowning. Knowing this, an overreaction to her kidnapping by that same man is to be expected. Don't you think?

[Ygrain]

5 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I agree he overreacted by most measures, but I'm not sure that it necessarily mattered. If it was Rhaegar's plan to pit the Starks (as well as the Baratheons, and eventually the Tullys and Arryns) against the crown, then the plan was still on track.

And given Brandon's reaction, which could certainly be viewed as an overreaction itself, to the crowning at HH, I'm not sure that Rhaegar and co. wouldn't have been expecting something along the lines of what actually did occur. Brandon had already demonstrated that he was a hothead where his sister was concerned. He had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar, the heir to the IT, after the crowning. Knowing this, an overreaction to her kidnapping by that same man is to be expected. Don't you think?

Yeah, but yelling to come out and die for someone who is not even there? Perhaps, in the heat of the moment when Brandon learns - but definitely not days later when he has had time to cool down at least a wee bit and actually think about what to do.

[corbon]

20 minutes ago, J. Stargaryen said:

I agree he overreacted by most measures, but I'm not sure that it necessarily mattered. If it was Rhaegar's plan to pit the Starks (as well as the Baratheons, and eventually the Tullys and Arryns) against the crown, then the plan was still on track.

And given Brandon's reaction, which could certainly be viewed as an overreaction itself, to the crowning at HH, I'm not sure that Rhaegar and co. wouldn't have been expecting something along the lines of what actually did occur. Brandon had already demonstrated that he was a hothead where his sister was concerned. He had to be restrained from confronting Rhaegar, the heir to the IT, after the crowning. Knowing this, an overreaction to her kidnapping by that same man is to be expected. Don't you think?

What Ygraine said.
In the heat of the moment, maybe. But to do something so reckless, with time to cool off and consider, and more pertinently, something that had no chance of a positive outcome, how can you expect that level of idiocy.

And my point is that creating a confrontation doesn't have to mean pitting sides against each other. It can also be a way of bringing out issues, forcing them to meet.
I think a plan that pits the Starks, Baratheons Tullys and Arryns directly against the crown is a stupid plan, and I don't think Rhaegar was a stupid man. I look for smarter plan possibilities than that.

[J. Stargaryen]

12 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Yeah, but yelling to come out and die for someone who is not even there? Perhaps, in the heat of the moment when Brandon learns - but definitely not days later when he has had time to cool down at least a wee bit and actually think about what to do.

I didn't specify that because it wasn't necessary for Rhaegar to. There's no need to be that precise. Rhaegar could have justifiably assumed that Brandon would behave like the hot head he was. And if he did make that assumption, he assumed correctly.

11 hours ago, corbon said:

What Ygraine said.
In the heat of the moment, maybe. But to do something so reckless, with time to cool off and consider, and more pertinently, something that had no chance of a positive outcome, how can you expect that level of idiocy.

And my point is that creating a confrontation doesn't have to mean pitting sides against each other. It can also be a way of bringing out issues, forcing them to meet.
I think a plan that pits the Starks, Baratheons Tullys and Arryns directly against the crown is a stupid plan, and I don't think Rhaegar was a stupid man. I look for smarter plan possibilities than that.

It wasn't necessary for Rhaegar to anticipate that Brandon would go cartoonishly overboard in his reaction. Rhaegar only needed to anticipate a tense confrontation between his father and the Starks, or their allies. Not even necessarily Brandon, though he was probably a good bet to overreact, or at least be less than diplomatic. I'm sure we can all agree on that.

It was risky, but the Targaryens nearly won the war, despite exactly zero decisive victories in the battles. If they had won just one decisive victory, or if the Tyrells were able to capture Storm's End, or if the Starks et al. had been unable to secure the Tully's into the alliance, the rebels would have been in a very difficult spot. And despite several prior setbacks, the loyalist army still outnumbered the rebels at the Trident. All in all, I'd say the rebels were big underdogs to overthrow the Targaryens.

Rhaegar might have reasonably assumed that the Starks, et al. wouldn't be willing to risk a war. And if they did, that any rebellion would be put down quickly.

[Kal-L]

Interesting theory J.Stargaryien, I had read it in former thread and never had a chance to react but even though it happens to not be the case I feel it concurs with what we know.

8 hours ago, corbon said:

I had the impression that the battle was going quite well initially for the Targaryens. And that Rhaegar and Robert met in the shallows, not that Rhaegar crossed the river as a desperate move when losing.

 

By the time Robert and Rhaegar met in battles, the loyalists were losing, Ser Jonothor Darry and Ser Barristan Selmy had fallen as well as Prince Lewyn who fall under Lyn Corbray's raid to break the Dornish line.

8 hours ago, corbon said:

 

Yeah, but I think the way Brandon reacted threw out all calculations.

Well, I think he planned for a much, much lesser confrontation and I don't think actual fighting was part of the plan.
If you think about it, the whole not being there thing should greatly reduce the options for the Starks, and greatly reduce the odds of an escalation getting out of hand. If Rhaegar and Lyanna can't be found for a start then you have a number of wins.
 - Aerys can't order her returned
 - the Starks can't use illegal force to try and get her back
 - Rhaegar is not there to be challenged (legal force)
In effect, Aerys and Rickard should be forced to talk, and possibly even agree. And even if they disagree, there is no reason for it to come to violence at that stage. There is low possibilities for escalation this way.

However, Brandon's actions threw everything awry. Who could possibly predict he would do something that had zero chance of any positive outcome and a huge negative escalation as an absolute certainty.
Brandon went KL and committed public, treasonous, assault on the crown by demanding Rhaegar come out and die. And Rhaegar wasn't even there! Disappearing should have prevented precisely this sort of stupidity (and worse, say a raid to steal Lyanna back for example) but Brandon appears to have been more stupid than anyone could possibly have predicted (I bet there was more to it than we can see, but it was still extremely stupid of him).

Expecting Aerys to talk rationally with a furious Lord Paramount and possibly come to an agreement is imo more unlikely than having Brandon Stark acting as recklessly as he showed to do. One wrong word and things might have escalated the same way they did. Anyway he must have been quite optimistic if he believed he could wait until the term of Lyanna's pregnancies to come out without any retaliations from the main concern in retaliation during the time.