R+L=J v.160

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

To be fair, there are a lot of missing pieces, especially concerning Lyanna's disappearance, which need explaining, and even though we can come up with logical and consistent explanations, the gaps are there.

Here you're wrong. Ned's behaviour and thoughts are very much formed by R+L=J. The whole issue of never telling anyone, not even his beloved and trusted wife, not even Jon who has every right to know, stop making sense if Ned is not covering up for R+L.

 

 

I am not sure that missing pieces is the same thing as "unresolved problems" -- at least as I would understand that term. Of course there are missing pieces. If there were no missing pieces, there would be no mystery at all. But missing pieces are not problems for the very reason you state -- there are logical and consistent explanations to fill in those gaps. An "unresolved problem" would be something that appears to be inconsistent with RLJ. The only inconsistency I know of is that Ned claims to be Jon's father and is known to be honorable and not a liar. Of course, once all the other evidence is considered, there is a really good explanation for why Ned would claim to be Jon's father -- but I really cannot think of any other "unresolved problems" with RLJ. And once that one "unresolved problem" is explained -- what is left as an objection? I am still waiting for Marada78 to revisit the thread and inform us of what this list of "unresolved problems" might be. For me, gaps are irrelevant. There must be gaps in every mystery. If fairly simple theories can fill in the gaps, the gaps simply are not a problem.

As far as Ned's behavior being formed by RLJ -- well, that sort of assumes the conclusion. You know I am as strong a believer in RLJ as anyone, but if GRRM were to write someone else as Jon's parents, arguably GRRM could come up with an explanation for that behavior consistent with the alternative. You might not find the explanation as compelling as if RLJ had been true to provide a rationale for Ned's behavior, but Ned's behavior is not necessarily dependent on RLJ being true. This behavior could be consistent with some alternative. It would only require enough imagination from GRRM to explain it all.

[Ygrain]

11 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I am not sure that missing pieces is the same thing as "unresolved problems" -- at least as I would understand that term. Of course there are missing pieces. If there were no missing pieces, there would be no mystery at all. But missing pieces are not problems for the very reason you state -- there are logical and consistent explanations to fill in those gaps.

Well, for some people, the gaps seem to constitute a sort of obstacle, because the gap basically leads to inconsistency in a character's behaviour - for example, the case of Lyanna expressing disapproval with Robert's whoring, and then herself running away with a married man. Double standards or the polygamy card are quite easy explanations, but since neither is confirmed, it is perceived as a flaw by some.

11 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

An "unresolved problem" would be something that appears to be inconsistent with RLJ. The only inconsistency I know of is that Ned claims to be Jon's father and is known to be honorable and not a liar.

Not sure if I understand you correctly here - Ned is known not to be a liar but we positively see him lie on two occasions, to protect family members.

11 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

As far as Ned's behavior being formed by RLJ -- well, that sort of assumes the conclusion. You know I am as strong a believer in RLJ as anyone, but if GRRM were to write someone else as Jon's parents, arguably GRRM could come up with an explanation for that behavior consistent with the alternative. You might not find the explanation as compelling as if RLJ had been true to provide a rationale for Ned's behavior, but Ned's behavior is not necessarily dependent on RLJ being true. This behavior could be consistent with some alternative. It would only require enough imagination from GRRM to explain it all.

Eh, no, it doesn't assume the conclusion. I am perhaps biased due to the way I figured out RLJ myself, but it was exactly Ned's behaviour that put me on the right track. It doesn't make sense not to tell the mother's name, and it doesn't make sense to lie for the sake of male family members. Which leaves Lyanna as the mother and the trail of the blue roses leading to Rhaegar, and secrets too dangerous to share.

Now, of course that GRRM may write whatever he wants but in what he has written so far, there is no other explanation consistent with Ned's behaviour, other than RLJ (and it's not like we haven't seem some peculiar mental gymnastics and pretzel twisting to provide some other reasoning).

 

 

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

An "unresolved problem" would be something that appears to be inconsistent with RLJ.

Why so? There are plenty of unresolved problems that do not in themselves call into question RLJ. Like:
- What was Lyanna doing in the Riverlands just before her abduction?
- How did Rhaegar find Lyanna? Was he even looking for her in the first place or was it a chance meeting? And if it was a chance meeting, what was Rhaegar doing in the Riverlands?
- Who witnessed the abduction exactly?
- Why did Rhaegar abduct Lyanna? For prophecy, for love, for political reasons... ?
- How did Lyanna end up having Rhaegar's child despite her honorable character?
- How did Brandon Stark come to think that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to King's Landing?
- Why did Brandon ask for a duel -instead of asking for his sister? What did he believe Rhaegar had done, and why?
- If Lyanna was a willing captive of Rhaegar's, why did she not attempt to send word of her wellbeing to Ned? In fact, did the rebels attempt to negotiate her safe return or not?
- What did Rhaegar do after Lyanna's abduction? Did he go straight to the ToJ? Did he attempt to communicate with the rebels or his father?
Fancy theories aside, there are still some holes to fill in the common theory. Holes that imho suggest that there may have been shadow players trying to manipulate events at the time (I wouldn't be surprised if Robert's Rebellion was deliberately engineered to end the Targaryan dynasty).
 

[MtnLion]

12 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

What was Lyanna doing in the Riverlands just before her abduction?

I am not certain that this has any bearing on RLJ.  Maybe you can explain how it would . . .

12 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

How did Rhaegar find Lyanna? Was he even looking for her in the first place or was it a chance meeting? And if it was a chance meeting, what was Rhaegar doing in the Riverlands?

Same as above.

13 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Who witnessed the abduction exactly?

I am certain that Whent and Dayne did.  GRRM has told us so.  Any reason that this would have any bearing on RLJ?

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Why did Rhaegar abduct Lyanna? For prophecy, for love, for political reasons... ?

Does the reason have to be known for RLJ, or the fact that it happened?

15 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

How did Lyanna end up having Rhaegar's child despite her honorable character?

There I believe that there (included in how you worded the question) is sufficient evidence that Rhaegar and Lyanna married.

16 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

How did Brandon Stark come to think that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to King's Landing?

I don't believe that this has any bearing on RLJ.  We know that Brandon received a message, when he was on his way back to Riverrun that had him go to King's Landing to demand that Rhaegar come out and die.  

17 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Why did Brandon ask for a duel -instead of asking for his sister? What did he believe Rhaegar had done, and why?

This really has no bearing on RLJ.  It is true that Brandon does not seem to mention Lyanna.  What Brandon believed is neither here nor there, since he is dead, and can no longer tell us what he believed.  

19 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

If Lyanna was a willing captive of Rhaegar's, why did she not attempt to send word of her wellbeing to Ned? In fact, did the rebels attempt to negotiate her safe return or not?

Is it possible that she left a note for Rickard, her father?  The rebels have nothing to do with RLJ, they rebelled when King Aerys demanded the heads of Robert and Ned from Jon Arryn.  

20 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

What did Rhaegar do after Lyanna's abduction? Did he go straight to the ToJ? Did he attempt to communicate with the rebels or his father?

This does not have any bearing on RLJ.  It seems that Rhaegar was not in King's Landing or Dragonstone when the Blackwater froze solid.  No one knew where he was, before Brandon went to duel Littlefinger at Riverrun.  More than a fortnight later is when Brandon receives word that has him go to King's Landing, and again, no one knows where Rhaegar is, but King Aerys arrests Brandon for treason.  The rebels rebelled some time after this, there are no rebels to communicate with.  

It is good to ask questions, but none of these has any real bearing on the support for RLJ.  

[Wayward Sand Star]

5 hours ago, Ygrain said:

To be fair, there are a lot of missing pieces, especially concerning Lyanna's disappearance, which need explaining, and even though we can come up with logical and consistent explanations, the gaps are there.

Missing pieces are not logical gaps. The How's and Why's are obviously important to understanding the chain of events, but they are not needed for the theory to be valid -- which it indeed is. Then again, by saying something about the validity of the argument that is the backbone of R+L=J, I've said nothing about whether it is true of false.

5 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Here you're wrong. Ned's behaviour and thoughts are very much formed by R+L=J. The whole issue of never telling anyone, not even his beloved and trusted wife, not even Jon who has every right to know, stop making sense if Ned is not covering up for R+L.

You're reading it presupposing R+L=J is true. If it were false (which I am not asserting), Ned would just be hiding something else. There is not a single occurrence of statement made in the books thus far which you could point to, which would be contradictory or absurd if R+L=J were false. Nothing has be said, shown or written that necessitates R+L=J being true.

 

[Rippounet]

9 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

It is good to ask questions, but none of these has any real bearing on the support for RLJ.  

That... was... my point...

Of course (like every single time I try to post something in the RLJ thread), I went too fast: UnmaskedLurker was actually arguing that these are "missing pieces" rather than "unresolved problems." So we're arguing semantics here (duh!).
Still, while some of these are merely "missing pieces" (who witnessed the abduction, or how Brandon Stark got his intel for instance), some are a bit more than that (Rhaegar and Lyanna disappearing for almost the entire war).
So my other point was that this suggests there is more to Rhaegar abducting Lyanna than love or prophecy. I'm tempted to think Rhaegar had a good reason to abduct Lyanna and a good reason to hide with her.
I wasn't saying these problems (or "missing pieces", however you call them) call into question RLJ. In fact, no alternative theory that I know of has ever managed to avoid comparable problems.
 

[UnmaskedLurker]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Well, for some people, the gaps seem to constitute a sort of obstacle, because the gap basically leads to inconsistency in a character's behaviour - for example, the case of Lyanna expressing disapproval with Robert's whoring, and then herself running away with a married man. Double standards or the polygamy card are quite easy explanations, but since neither is confirmed, it is perceived as a flaw by some.

I guess that might be an inconsistency by seems like very "week sauce" as an objection to RLJ. Not wanting a husband to whore around is quite different than a married man falling in love with someone else. But perhaps that is another "problem" to be explained. I agree that we have pretty good explanations.

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Not sure if I understand you correctly here - Ned is known not to be a liar but we positively see him lie on two occasions, to protect family members.

I mean that it "appears" to be an inconsistency because in general Ned is presented to the readers as someone who is known not to lie. But I agree that we know he has lied, which is why this "problem" is easily explained. I simply mean if someone is trying to come up with a "problem" with RLJ, then Ned as the "honorable" man who is thought of as someone who does not lie might be viewed potentially as a problem. I was trying to give the "other side" the benefit of coming up with something that could be a problem. But you accurately point out that Ned has lied in the text, so that point does sort of fall away -- which in the end really backs up my original point -- I fail to see what all these "unresolved problems" really are.

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Eh, no, it doesn't assume the conclusion. I am perhaps biased due to the way I figured out RLJ myself, but it was exactly Ned's behaviour that put me on the right track. It doesn't make sense not to tell the mother's name, and it doesn't make sense to lie for the sake of male family members. Which leaves Lyanna as the mother and the trail of the blue roses leading to Rhaegar, and secrets too dangerous to share.

Now, of course that GRRM may write whatever he wants but in what he has written so far, there is no other explanation consistent with Ned's behaviour, other than RLJ (and it's not like we haven't seem some peculiar mental gymnastics and pretzel twisting to provide some other reasoning).

Here is where perhaps we really disagree. I don't think as a technical matter that it is true that "no other explanation consistent with Ned's behavior, other than RLJ" could be the answer to Jon's parents. Maybe Ned did not want to risk the information coming out because the mother's family (or husband) would kill her if they (or he) knew she had a child with Ned. Maybe the mother made Ned promise to keep it a secret because she did not want to ever be reminded of the child that she felt she had to give up to Ned and Ned wants to keep this promise to the mother. Maybe the secret being too dangerous to share has nothing to do with Jon at all and Ned really means a different secret. I am not nearly as creative as GRRM, so I am sure there are better examples, but I simply don't think it is strictly true that no other possible explanation is consistent with Ned's behavior.

Now I don't think any of those explanations are accurate. I think that RLJ is true. I think that Ned kept the information a secret because the truth would potentially endanger his family's lives -- including Ned possibly being charged with treason and Jon possibly being killed as the dragonspawn. I think basically the same things that I believe you think on the issue in terms of what Ned did and why. But I simply don't agree that Ned's behavior cannot possibly be consistent with any other explanation for Jon's parentage.

24 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Why so? There are plenty of unresolved problems that do not in themselves call into question RLJ. Like:
- What was Lyanna doing in the Riverlands just before her abduction?
- How did Rhaegar find Lyanna? Was he even looking for her in the first place or was it a chance meeting? And if it was a chance meeting, what was Rhaegar doing in the Riverlands?
- Who witnessed the abduction exactly?
- Why did Rhaegar abduct Lyanna? For prophecy, for love, for political reasons... ?
- How did Lyanna end up having Rhaegar's child despite her honorable character?
- How did Brandon Stark come to think that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to King's Landing?
- Why did Brandon ask for a duel -instead of asking for his sister? What did he believe Rhaegar had done, and why?
- If Lyanna was a willing captive of Rhaegar's, why did she not attempt to send word of her wellbeing to Ned? In fact, did the rebels attempt to negotiate her safe return or not?
- What did Rhaegar do after Lyanna's abduction? Did he go straight to the ToJ? Did he attempt to communicate with the rebels or his father?
Fancy theories aside, there are still some holes to fill in the common theory. Holes that imho suggest that there may have been shadow players trying to manipulate events at the time (I wouldn't be surprised if Robert's Rebellion was deliberately engineered to end the Targaryan dynasty).
 

Your post goes to what I stated above -- certainly there are holes in the plot that have not yet been filled in -- because this aspect of the story is a MYSTERY and if GRRM filled in these holes too soon there would no longer be a mystery. But nothing that your raised is a "problem" with RLJ. A "problem" as I would have thought it would mean would not be simply an aspect of the plot that has not yet been told to the readers that would be necessary to understand fully what happened -- of course a mysterious aspect of the story is going to have those plot holes until the author is ready to solve the mystery. I would have thought a "problem" is an apparent inconsistency that needs to be answered or that appears to be contradictory to RLJ. I used the obvious example of Ned claiming that Jon is Ned's son. That information from the text contradicts RLJ because Ned and Rhaegar cannot both be the father (and NLJ is too creepy and Targ/Lannister-esque to be contemplated here). So that is a "problem" for RLJ, but as noted above, we have pretty good explanations for why Ned claims to be Jon's father when Ned really is not Jon's father.

But none of the questions you raise make RLJ less likely. They are questions that we know need answers. But the particular answers can very well make RLJ more likely. The existence of the questions and unresolved plot elements do not create a "problem" for RLJ because there is no apparent information inconsistent with RLJ that would need to be reconciled. 

So maybe Marada78 really meant these sorts of questions when referring to "unresolved problems" but if that is the case, then the point is more or less pointless. It simply would not make RLJ a "problem" for GRRM because GRRM can supply any answers to these questions that he wants. The real point is that virtually all of the information we have is entirely consistent with RLJ. The one or two points that seem not to be are entirely consistent can be explained fairly simply. So by my reckoning of what constitutes a "problem" I really just don't see it.

2 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

That... was... my point...

Of course (like every single time I try to post something in the RLJ thread), I went too fast: UnmaskedLurker was actually arguing that these are "missing pieces" rather than "unresolved problems." So we're arguing semantics here (duh!).
Still, while some of these are merely "missing pieces" (who witnessed the abduction, or how Brandon Stark got his intel for instance), some are a bit more than that (Rhaegar and Lyanna disappearing for almost the entire war).
So my other point was that this suggests there is more to Rhaegar abducting Lyanna than love or prophecy. I'm tempted to think Rhaegar had a good reason to abduct Lyanna and a good reason to hide with her.
I wasn't saying these problems (or "missing pieces", however you call them) call into question RLJ. In fact, no alternative theory that I know of has ever managed to avoid comparable problems.
 

Now that I have read this post from you I agree that we were talking past each other and had only a semantics difference. My question is for Marada78 who originally stated there were "unresolved problems" with RLJ, and I still want to know what that person thinks they are.

[Marada78]

Ok, let me try to explain myself, even if probably most of you guys knows this already and better then me . There are a number of points that are raised against R+L=J if you look around the web, but only two IMHO really needs to be taken in account and they are both related to the only reliable source of information we have in the books: Eddard Stark inner thoughts in his POVs.

1) Not rembering of Rhaegar

Quote

There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not.

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen this sentence is very strange if not implausible. Even if you wanted to forget the man that may have raped your sister you still have to look every day to his son and inevitably be reminded of him. Of course this could just be a GRRM "mistake" and not a clue. 

2) Eddard Promises to Lyanna

We get this quote about Eddard recalling his promises to Lyanna and he is talking at plural so there is more than one promise involved. One promise may be to protect Jon, but the other(s)?

Quote

He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

At some point he even start having nightmares about these promises. To be more precise he start having nightmares when he is in king's landing and Robert wants to order Daenerys assassination. The clue here for me is quite straightforward: Ned has nightmares because he is very near to breaking his promises and it can't be related to Jon at this time, it must have something to do with Daenerys. 

Quote

When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises.

So how and why Lyanna's promises are related to Daenerys is the definition for me of "Unresolved Problems", where of course "unresolved" is meant just for me and for who is interpretating this point this way; others may of course have already found a personal plausible explanation or even reached a completely different interpretation. 

Also for me "Unresolved Problems" are also related to Ashara involvement in all this, because it's clearly not independent and all connected. If I stick just with R+L=J I get the feeling that I am looking just at a tiny part of a bigger picture and that probably that big picture would reveal details that would make R+L=J less and less relaiable. It simply doesn't work well for me.

Hope I clarified myself 

[corbon]

2 hours ago, Marada78 said:

Ok, let me try to explain myself, even if probably most of you guys knows this already and better then me . There are a number of points that are raised against R+L=J if you look around the web, but only two IMHO really needs to be taken in account and they are both related to the only reliable source of information we have in the books: Eddard Stark inner thoughts in his POVs.

1) Not rembering of Rhaegar

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen this sentence is very strange if not implausible. Even if you wanted to forget the man that may have raped your sister you still have to look every day to his son and inevitably be reminded of him. Of course this could just be a GRRM "mistake" and not a clue.

This is not a problem. In the context, its not that he can't remember Rhaegar (even though remember is the word he uses), its that he just doesn't think about him. And we know already that its not actually true because we saw Ned talking about Rhaegar with Robert not that long ago. So its not the first time in years that he remembers Rhaegar.
What GRRM is telling us, what Ned is expressing inaccurately to himself, is that he never really thinks about Rhaegar any more. And thats fine. Jon is well settled in as Ned's bastard now, 15 years later. There isn't any reason that Ned should have been thinking deeply about Rhaegar Targaryen in the last few years until Robert came to Winterfell.

2 hours ago, Marada78 said:

2) Eddard Promises to Lyanna

We get this quote about Eddard recalling his promises to Lyanna and he is talking at plural so there is more than one promise involved. One promise may be to protect Jon, but the other(s)?

At some point he even start having nightmares about these promises. To be more precise he start having nightmares when he is in king's landing and Robert wants to order Daenerys assassination. The clue here for me is quite straightforward: Ned has nightmares because he is very near to breaking his promises and it can't be related to Jon at this time, it must have something to do with Daenerys. 

Why can't it be related to Jon? I think you are out on the timing and relevance here.
The only times Ned thinks of broken promises or promises to Lyanna are when he's meeting the girl Robert impregnated in a whorehouse (he is making promises to a bastards mother -> Jon) and after he's injured and in the dungeons, not expecting to ever see Jon again (broken promises -> Jon's knowledge of his own heritage).
If you are thinking of something else, perhaps you could provide a quote? (asearchoficeandfire.com is your friend)

2 hours ago, Marada78 said:

So how and why Lyanna's promises are related to Daenerys is the definition for me of "Unresolved Problems", where of course "unresolved" is meant just for me and for who is interpretating this point this way; others may of course have already found a personal plausible explanation or even reached a completely different interpretation. 

Well, putting aside that I don't think there is any connection to Dany, I agree with the previous comments. A lot of people complain about 'unresolved problems' when  really mean are things that they haven't figured out yet, not things that actively clash with the theory.

2 hours ago, Marada78 said:

Also for me "Unresolved Problems" are also related to Ashara involvement in all this, because it's clearly not independent and all connected. If I stick just with R+L=J I get the feeling that I am looking just at a tiny part of a bigger picture and that probably that big picture would reveal details that would make R+L=J less and less relaiable. It simply doesn't work well for me.

Hope I clarified myself 

I don't think it is clear that she is not independent. In fact, I think she probably is completely independent of R+L=J, and that its two separate 'plots' intertwining here, combined with some logically occurring but wrong rumours, that confuse people.
I think the N+A rumours are completely false, a clever smokescreen by GRRM. Most of them clearly are created by the confluence of Ned leaving Starfall with Jon and Ashara committing suicide. They are possibly assisted by previous history with Ashara and Starks (Harrenhal, disgrace) but thats almost certainly not Ned anyway, nor is it in any way related to Jon.
I think Ashara is connected strongly with Rhaegar and Elia, not Rhaegar and Lyanna. I think Varys tapped her on the shoulder to take fAegon to Essos and thats why she faked her suicide and it has nothing at all to do with Ned or Jon. But the timing is about right for the two independent plots to overlap there and the bits that people (in Westeros) know about appear to fit together. But the bits people don't know about show no real connection between the two plot circles, just a confluence of time and place.

[Rippounet]

Just an idea I'd like to throw here (because there are so many regulars/veterans of the forum on this thread).
Did anyone ever theorize that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to trigger the rebellion on purpose? In other words, that his initial plan could have been to abduct Lyanna, keep her safe during the course of the war, and then negotiate a truce with the rebels that would result in him taking the throne?
I know how insane this sounds, but given what he said to Jaime before leaving for the Trident, Rhaegar obviously didn't expect to die there. He had a large army of fresh troops that outnumbered the rebels' and perhaps he didn't imagine that any of the rebels would hate him enough to kill him (perhaps he even hoped he could prevent the battle altogether). After all, the rebels didn't initially want to end the Targaryan dynasty, did they? Perhaps Rhaegar believed that even if he lost the battle, the rebels would spare him, and that he would somehow be able to convince them that he would make a better king than Aerys ; and of course, if he won (the likely outcome), he was in a perfect position to call a council anyway.
Plus, if he did marry Lyanna in secret he was effectively making her his queen, which could theoretically mollify the Starks at least. What he wouldn't have taken into account was Robert's insane -and slightly irrational- hatred/jealousy (and his skill with that warhammer ).
Of course, Rhaegar's ultimate plan would have been to prepare the realm for the return of the Others (he seemed convinced that the Prince that was Promised was already born, which means he saw the threat as imminent).
It's crazy of course, but slightly less than kidnapping Lyanna to birth a prophecy baby and triggering the war unintentionally. And his plan to call a council at Harrenhal had already failed, leaving him few options to depose his father before the Others returned. From Rhaegar's perspective, the rebellion could have been a means to weaken his father, while convincing his close supporters that he would be the one in charge at the end of it.
This could -perhaps- explain a number of small things. The garland at Harrenhal, Lyanna's abduction (and what was said of it), him hiding for most of the war, the Kingsguard protecting Lyanna at the ToJ...

[Ygrain]

6 hours ago, Marada78 said:

1) Not rembering of Rhaegar

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen this sentence is very strange if not implausible. Even if you wanted to forget the man that may have raped your sister you still have to look every day to his son and inevitably be reminded of him. Of course this could just be a GRRM "mistake" and not a clue. 

Well, let me put a RL analogy: I am reminded of my ex on a daily basis but I do my best to actually avoid remembering him :-)

Given the context (Robert's whoring and its outcome, his irresponsible attitude which Lyanna had seen years ago, and finally drawing a conclusion about Rhaegar not frequenting brothels), it seems more like the first time in years, Ned went back in his memory to things he knew of Rhaegar and what kind of man he was.

 

6 hours ago, Marada78 said:

2) Eddard Promises to Lyanna

We get this quote about Eddard recalling his promises to Lyanna and he is talking at plural so there is more than one promise involved. One promise may be to protect Jon, but the other(s)?

At some point he even start having nightmares about these promises. To be more precise he start having nightmares when he is in king's landing and Robert wants to order Daenerys assassination. The clue here for me is quite straightforward: Ned has nightmares because he is very near to breaking his promises and it can't be related to Jon at this time, it must have something to do with Daenerys. 

And this is is where the internet is wrong. This is not the point where he starts having those nightmares - they come only when Ned is in the Black Cells, i.e. after Robert has changed his mind about the assassination and Ned ordered Varys to cancel any preparations that he might have done.

 

 

[UnmaskedLurker]

Not to pile on, but let me explain why I disagree with your points:

14 hours ago, Marada78 said:

Ok, let me try to explain myself, even if probably most of you guys knows this already and better then me . There are a number of points that are raised against R+L=J if you look around the web, but only two IMHO really needs to be taken in account and they are both related to the only reliable source of information we have in the books: Eddard Stark inner thoughts in his POVs.

1) Not rembering of Rhaegar

Quote

There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not.

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen this sentence is very strange if not implausible. Even if you wanted to forget the man that may have raped your sister you still have to look every day to his son and inevitably be reminded of him. Of course this could just be a GRRM "mistake" and not a clue. 

Keep in mind that if RLJ is true, Rhaegar almost certainly did not rape Lyanna. The most likely scenario is that Rhaegar and Lyanna were in love -- and I actually believe were married. But the marriage is not the main issue -- the point is to go along with the premise that Rhaegar and Lyanna were in love and that Lyanna told Ned something that leads Ned to believe that Rhaegar ultimately acted honorably toward Lyanna. I agree that without that conclusion, the inner thoughts of Ned make no sense. But once that conclusion has been reached, Ned's inner thoughts make perfect sense. 

Ned has spent 15 years pretending to be Jon's father. Ned's life and Jon's life arguably depend on Ned holding to that lie. Ned cannot slip. Ned cannot tell his wife. Ned shuts down any stray discussion about who might be Jon's mother. Ned spends 15 years making the lie as real and true in his own mind as possible. So Ned does not actively think about Rhaegar very much. Luckily, Jon looks very little like Rhaegar, so after 15 years, Ned can successfully put Rhaegar out of his own mind.

What happened that made Ned think of Rhaegar? Learning that Robert fathered bastards with whores. Why would that information make Ned think of Rhaegar? Two possible reasons -- both pointing in favor of RLJ. One is that it reminds him of Jon having been raised as a bastard -- which reminds Ned of Rhaegar because Rhaegar really is Jon's father. Why else make the connection to Rhaegar? Why all of a sudden think about Rhaegar? Under your alternative, there simply is no reasonable trigger to have made Ned think of Rhaegar -- especially when Ned concludes that Rhaegar would not go to a whorehouse -- so why is Robert going to a whorehouse and fathering a bastard making Ned think of Rhaegar at all in any respect.

 The other reason is that it makes Ned consider the differences in character between Rhaegar and Robert -- with Rhaegar coming out on top as someone who would not go to a whorehouse. How does that make sense if the main thing Ned knows about Rhaegar is that Rhaegar simply is the rapist of Ned's sister? It only makes sense if Rhaegar and Lyanna's relationship was consensual. And Ned likely would only know that if Lyanna had to explain that Rhaegar is Jon's father. 

So consider what the quote is really intended to do for the reader. The quote is intended to let the attentive reader know that Ned does not really harbor bad feelings toward Rhaegar. That Rhaegar likely is not a rapist. And that hearing about Robert having a bastard makes Ned think of Rhaegar -- which makes most sense if Jon (who has been raised as a bastard) somehow is connected to Rhaegar -- i.e., father and son.

14 hours ago, Marada78 said:

 

2) Eddard Promises to Lyanna

We get this quote about Eddard recalling his promises to Lyanna and he is talking at plural so there is more than one promise involved. One promise may be to protect Jon, but the other(s)?

Quote

He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

At some point he even start having nightmares about these promises. To be more precise he start having nightmares when he is in king's landing and Robert wants to order Daenerys assassination. The clue here for me is quite straightforward: Ned has nightmares because he is very near to breaking his promises and it can't be related to Jon at this time, it must have something to do with Daenerys. 

The promise really cannot be related to Dany. Lyanna never knew Dany. Dany was born after Lyanna was dead. Lyanna would have no way to know that Dany ever would exist. The connection between the nightmares and Jon is fairly obvious. Robert has shown that after all these years, he still fears a Targ restoration, still hates the Targs and is willing to kill a Targ child to secure the Baratheon dynasty. Isn't the connection to the promise to Lyanna about Jon fairly obvious? If not, I will do my best to spell it out. Ned promised something along the lines of raising Jon as Ned's son and keeping Jon's identity a secret. Ned has always feared that he needed to keep this secret not just because he made a promise to his sister but because failing to keep the promise could mean death to Jon. Finding out that Robert is willing to kill Dany is pretty good confirmation of Ned's worst fears -- his fears that Jon's life is in danger if the truth becomes known. That Robert will kill Jon if Robert found out that Jon is the son of Rhaegar.

Ned does not know Dany and does not really care about Dany -- other than Ned's general honor of not killing children. I cannot think of any reason why Ned would have nightmares over a promise related to Dany. And again, Lyanna simply cannot have a connection to someone born after Lyanna's death. It makes no sense to me. But the fear that the release of the real identity of Jon would put Jon's life in the same danger as Dany's life would lead to nightmares. Ned does care about and love Jon. Ned would be quite fearful that Ned's actions -- if he slipped about the true identity of Jon -- could lead to Jon's death.

14 hours ago, Marada78 said:

 

Quote

When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises.

So how and why Lyanna's promises are related to Daenerys is the definition for me of "Unresolved Problems", where of course "unresolved" is meant just for me and for who is interpretating this point this way; others may of course have already found a personal plausible explanation or even reached a completely different interpretation. 

I have always wondered what the broken "promises" (plural) could be (after all, he kept the apparent promise to raise Jon as Ned's son and keep Jon's true identity a secret). The obvious one is that Ned will not get a chance to tell Jon his true parentage, which perhaps Ned promised he would do when Jon grew up. Perhaps he is thinking that he can no longer keep the promise to watch over Jon and keep him safe. I am not exactly sure what the broken promises are -- but there simply is no reason to assume the promises have anything to do with Dany. That assessment assumes the conclusion.

Again, the issue is whether there are "unresolved problems" with RLJ. If you assume that the promises have to do with Dany, then there are problems. But there simply is no necessity to assume such a thing. For me, it is implausible they have anything to do with Dany. But even if they could -- are the alternatives suggested by me (and others) above so illogical to you that you believe the promises must be about Dany? And if they are not about Dany, and if our interpretations are correct, then the unresolved problems melt away.

By asserting there are unresolved problems with RLJ, and given that I (and others) have presented fairly clear interpretations of the text you quoted from that are completely consistent with RLJ, the burden shifts to you to show how our interpretations are unreasonable or illogical. Rather than the portions of text that you quoted creating a problem for RLJ -- to me they are some of the strongest clues in FAVOR of RLJ. I honestly am surprised that you have taken them to mean something so completely different than what I think they are intended to mean. But again, the issue is not whether my interpretation is more or less plausible than yours -- the issue is that as long as my interpretation is not completely implausible, then there is nothing in those quotes that create an "unresolved problem" for RLJ because if RLJ is correct, then presumably my interpretation is correct. Only if those quotes could not reasonably be interpreted in the manner I have suggested would they create an "unresolved problem" for RLJ.

15 hours ago, Marada78 said:

Also for me "Unresolved Problems" are also related to Ashara involvement in all this, because it's clearly not independent and all connected. If I stick just with R+L=J I get the feeling that I am looking just at a tiny part of a bigger picture and that probably that big picture would reveal details that would make R+L=J less and less relaiable. It simply doesn't work well for me.

Hope I clarified myself 

Now is where you completely lose me. Ashara could be connected in many ways. I think that corbon suggested some of the ways she is connected (not that I agree with all he has stated, but I agree with some of it). But nothing in the text necessitates Ashara being connected in a way that makes RLJ implausible or even unlikely. I think the key is that you state that you "get the feeling" that the bigger picture makes RLJ less reliable. But what is that "feeling" based on? I am not sure I can tell -- other than somehow Ashara's involvement makes RLJ less likely -- but why?

Ashara is not Jon's mother. Others have done fairly good textual analysis to show that Ashara as Jon's mother is highly unlikely if not virtually impossible. You can search out that analysis if you want -- it is out there. Personally, I think that Ashara was Arthur's "inside woman" at Starfall, making sure that ToJ got supplies and reports on the war. But I am not 100% sure. The bottom line is that I don't see why a "feeling" that Ashara is involved and there is a "big picture" necessarily makes RLJ less likely. I just don't follow the analysis.

9 hours ago, Rippounet said:

[snip]

I am highly skeptical that Rhaegar was trying to start the rebellion. First, I don't see how he could have been certain that Brandon would behave in such a suicidal manner or that Aerys would call for Ned's and Robert's deaths. Absent both of those developments -- no war. 

But more to the point, why would Rhaegar stay in hiding, only come out after Aerys sends Hightower to fetch Rhaegar and then lead the battle against the rebels? I have a hard time reconciling that behavior with someone who wanted the rebellion to happen. Either he stays in hiding until the war is completely over and then comes out to claim his right to be the new king (assuming Aerys is dead or dramatically weakened in his support at that time). Or he tries to coordinate a meeting with Ned and Robert to negotiate an end to the war with Aerys stepping down and Rhaegar taking over. But his actual behavior is completely inconsistent with someone trying to provoke the war and come out at the end as King.

[MtnLion]

11 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Just an idea I'd like to throw here (because there are so many regulars/veterans of the forum on this thread).
Did anyone ever theorize that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to trigger the rebellion on purpose? In other words, that his initial plan could have been to abduct Lyanna, keep her safe during the course of the war, and then negotiate a truce with the rebels that would result in him taking the throne?

Too many dominoes, and even Littlefinger could not have pulled it off, without constant meddling. 

• If Brandon is not suicidal
• If Rickard doesn't fail
• If Aerys doesn't press on Stark and Baratheon
• If Jon Connington doesn't fail
• (If Rhaegar doesn't die)
• If Tywinn doesn't betray
• If Pycelle can't convince Aerys
• If Aerys doesn't have a wildfire plot and decide to use it
• If Jaime misses the triggering of the wildfire plot
• If Jaime doesn't slay Aerys

There are probably more, just the ones off the top of my head.  I have often wondered why Rhaegar did not approach Robert and Ned with a flag of truce, though.  Did Rhaegar know that if he didn't win, Aerys was a threat to trigger a wildfire plot? 

[239JMFL34109]

LF plan's might have only been to kill brandon the dumb...

[Marada78]

15 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And this is is where the internet is wrong. This is not the point where he starts having those nightmares - they come only when Ned is in the Black Cells, i.e. after Robert has changed his mind about the assassination and Ned ordered Varys to cancel any preparations that he might have done.

Well it might still not be in a clear form of nightmares but he is already so obsessed that he is already dreaming of it in Eddard X

Quote

"Lord Eddard," Lyanna called again.

"I promise," he whispered. "Lya, I promise …"

"Lord Eddard," a man echoed from the dark

Then in Eddard XIII when Robert is almost passing away we get this quote:

Quote

"Serve the boar at my funeral feast," Robert rasped. "Apple in its mouth, skin seared crisp. Eat the bastard. Don't care if you choke on him. Promise me, Ned."

"I promise." Promise me, Ned, Lyanna's voice echoed.

"The girl," the king said. "Daenerys. Let her live. If you can, if it … not too late … talk to them … Varys, Littlefinger … don't let them kill her. And help my son, Ned. Make him be … better than me." He winced. "Gods have mercy.

Ok now why Eddard should think of Lyanna's promises here is a big mistery if you think those promises are related to Jon. And ok you can say that he is because of Robert, but I find it very weak. Expecially because the author then points out to Daenerys again...

Also Varys says that he it may be too late to stop Daenerys assassination.

Quote

Certainly Varys had once been young. Ned doubted that he had ever been innocent. "You mention children. Robert had a change of heart concerningDaenerys Targaryen. Whatever arrangements you made, I want unmade. At once."

"Alas," said Varys. "At once may be too late. I fear those birds have flown. But I shall do what I can, my lord. With your leave." He bowed and vanished down the steps, his soft-soled slippers whispering against the stone as he made his descent

Also let me say that I personally believe that Lyanna is Jon Mother (but I am not equally sure about the R part of the R+L=J), so I have another unclear point here. I don't believe that Lyanna would need to ask Ned about protecting Jon, Ned would do that by default.

Lyanna probably asked Ned something more complicated, so complicated that Ned later on would start going mad about.

But I don't have a clear idea of what it is. Probably to protect someone else. Maybe Ashara was pregnant at the time and maybe by Rhaegar, but frankly I have no basis, just a gut feeling. R was not the faithful type, while Lyanna was probably the type to fall in love so deeply that she would forgive anything. Anyway R + A = D doesn't mean that we can't have also R+L=J...we could actually have both. Still D & J would not be 8/9 months apart in age, and probably some fake birthdates are involved. But let me stop the conjectures here and wait for more details to be revealed by season 6 

[Jon Weirgaryen]

On 13.4.2016 at 0:22 AM, Marada78 said:

Ok, let me try to explain myself, even if probably most of you guys knows this already and better then me . There are a number of points that are raised against R+L=J if you look around the web, but only two IMHO really needs to be taken in account and they are both related to the only reliable source of information we have in the books: Eddard Stark inner thoughts in his POVs.

1) Not rembering Rhaegar

Quote

There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not.

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen this sentence is very strange if not implausible.

The Ned has fooled you all along! (As he probably had everybody else at this point)

Since Ned is such a honorable person, how would a reader be able to disbelieve the magic spell "For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen".

When in fact, Ned has remembered Rhaegar Targaryen about a dozen times and so in nearly all of the first eight Eddard chapters and once in Sansa's chapter until then. You fell for a trick (hand it to GRRM that he designed that very cleverly). I'll show it below.

I wrote a list of all Eddard remembering Rhaegar prior to the "For the first time in years" long ago and cannot find it again, but just a quick and probably incomplete list:

AGoT 04 Eddard I:

(1) Robert addressing Eddard:  "I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her."
(2) ... triggering Eddard's memory: When Ned had finally come on the scene, Rhaegar lay dead in the stream, while men of both armies scrabbled in the swirling waters for rubies knocked free of his armor.

AGoT 12 Eddard II:

(3) Eddard remembering Rhaegars children's doom: He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder;
(4) Eddard remembering Rhaenys' doom: It was said that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords.
(5) Robert addressing Eddard: "And Rhaegar . . . how many times do you think he raped your sister?"
(6) Eddard addressing Robert: "You took a wound from Rhaegar," Ned reminded him. "So when the Targaryen host broke and ran, you gave the pursuit into my hands. The remnants of Rhaegar's army fled back to King's Landing.

AGoT 16 Eddard III:

(7) Eddard thinking to himself: Ser Raymun lived under the king's peace, but his family had fought beneath Rhaegar's dragon banners at the Trident, and his three older brothers had died there, a truth neither Robert nor Ser Raymun had forgotten.

AGoT 20 Eddard IV:

(8) Eddard remembering Aegon: He remembered Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry's audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once.

AGoT 29 Sansa II:

(9) Sansa remembers Eddard telling her of Rhaegar & Gregor: "My father told everyone my bedding had caught fire, and our maester gave me ointments. Ointments! Gregor got his ointments too. Four years later, they anointed him with the seven oils and he recited his knightly vows and Rhaegar Targaryen tapped him on the shoulder and said, 'Arise, Ser Gregor.' "

AGoT 30 Eddard VII:

(10) Eddard thinking to himself: Robert would smash him as he had smashed Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident. He could see it all so clearly.

AGoT 33 Eddard VIII:

(11) Eddard addressing Robert: "Your Grace, I never knew you to fear Rhaegar."
(12) Eddard thinking to himself: Always? Suddenly, uncomfortably, he found himself recalling Rhaegar Targaryen. Fifteen years dead, yet Robert hates him as much as ever. It was a disturbing notion . . . and there was the other matter

... and finally, we forget all that with this wave of a hand:

AGoT 35 Eddard IX:

Eddard thinking to himself: There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not.

So you see, we would not distrust Eddard, would we? But he's had us by the nose.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

@Marada78 ... but since you are out hunting for the promise I wrote a rather compelling idea about it that back then, that others on this thread had had before I had it...

[Rippounet]

7 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I am highly skeptical that Rhaegar was trying to start the rebellion. First, I don't see how he could have been certain that Brandon would behave in such a suicidal manner or that Aerys would call for Ned's and Robert's deaths. Absent both of those developments -- no war.

Well for starters, an open war wasn't entirely necessary. Creating a rift between most of the Lords Paramount and the Crown was enough to threaten Aerys's rule.
And even if I don't say Brandon's reaction could be predicted, Aerys's certainly could.
Basically, forcing the Lords Paramount to actually deal with Aerys, for any reason, would show them just how crazy the guy was. Many people would then find themselves very willing to listen to Rhaegar and consider him as a necessary alternative.

Of course, abducting Lyanna to force a confrontation between the Stark-Baratheon alliance and Aerys may be a bit extreme, but we pretty much know that Rhaegar initially wanted to try a different approach (since it's assumed he was behind the tournament at Harrenhal).

7 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

But more to the point, why would Rhaegar stay in hiding, only come out after Aerys sends Hightower to fetch Rhaegar and then lead the battle against the rebels? I have a hard time reconciling that behavior with someone who wanted the rebellion to happen. Either he stays in hiding until the war is completely over and then comes out to claim his right to be the new king (assuming Aerys is dead or dramatically weakened in his support at that time). Or he tries to coordinate a meeting with Ned and Robert to negotiate an end to the war with Aerys stepping down and Rhaegar taking over. But his actual behavior is completely inconsistent with someone trying to provoke the war and come out at the end as King.

I completely disagree. On the contrary, Rhaegar absolutely had to both let the conflict develop and intervene before it ended in order to gain political clout with both the loyalists and the rebels. If his objective was to depose his father, he certainly couldn't try to prevent the war from happening (especially since he was in part responsible for it in the first place), but he also had to be seen as a leader of men for it to be useful.

In fact, consider this: why did Aerys only call for Rhaegar at the very end of the war, when the situation was getting terrible? Perhaps, because he didn't want to give his son a chance for glory (he had enough of that already, in Aerys's eyes -remember Harrenhal).
This is a medieval society. The reason why Robert was able to claim the throne was because he was a successful battle commander.
Now, what if Rhaegar had started to accumulate victories like Robert? Started to earn the personal loyalty of many lords and knights?

Of course, this supposes that Rhaegar was a real player in the Game of Thrones, on par with people like LF and Varys. But why not? We have little information on the way Rhaegar dealt with politics, but what we know does point to him being a player.

6 hours ago, MtnLion said:

Too many dominoes, and even Littlefinger could not have pulled it off, without constant meddling. 

• If Brandon is not suicidal
• If Rickard doesn't fail
• If Aerys doesn't press on Stark and Baratheon
• If Jon Connington doesn't fail
• (If Rhaegar doesn't die)
• If Tywinn doesn't betray
• If Pycelle can't convince Aerys
• If Aerys doesn't have a wildfire plot and decide to use it
• If Jaime misses the triggering of the wildfire plot
• If Jaime doesn't slay Aerys

There are probably more, just the ones off the top of my head.

No. All Rhaegar needed to weaken Aerys was for him to press Stark and Baratheon. And I think Aerys could be counted on to be terrible at diplomacy.
You're assuming that the war itself or Aerys's assassination were necessary. Not so. For Rhaegar to take the throne, all he needed was for most of the kingdom to see that Aerys's removal could wait no longer.
For instance, Tywin doesn't even need to actively betray Aerys. We know that Tywin was already on Rhaegar's side, that he already considered him "a better king" (as per the World book).
What Rhaegar needed was something to convince the big Stark-Baratheon-Tully-Arryn bloc to side with him over Aerys. Now abducting Lyanna might seem terribly counter-productive at first glance... But what if he then made her queen?
Given Aerys's well-known spite for the Dornish, even the Martells might still be willing to overlook the slight to Elia and side with Rhaegar over Aerys.

6 hours ago, MtnLion said:

 I have often wondered why Rhaegar did not approach Robert and Ned with a flag of truce, though.  Did Rhaegar know that if he didn't win, Aerys was a threat to trigger a wildfire plot? 

I doubt that Rhaegar knew about the wildfire plot, but it's not impossible (Tyrion learned of Cersei's after all).

I have also wondered (many times) why Rhaegar did not attempt to negotiate with Robert and Ned. If the war was a regrettable consequence of Lyanna's abduction, why not do his best to stop it? Why not explain his reasons (whatever they actually were) ? Why not even discuss the possibility of marrying Lyanna? Robert was unlikely to listen, but people like Hoster Tully or Jon Arryn could certainly be reasoned with.

However, if Rhaegar was shrewd enough to see the rebellion as a means to an end, he may have wanted to score a victory before starting negotiations. Heck, we even have textual evidence that he meant to do just that!

The more I think about it, and the less crazy it seems to me. IMHO it has enough textual support to be viewed as a possible perspective on the events. Generally speaking, seeing Rhaegar as a real player in the Game of Thrones may help fill a lot of holes.
 

[MtnLion]

7 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

The more I think about it, and the less crazy it seems to me. IMHO it has enough textual support to be viewed as a possible perspective on the events. Generally speaking, seeing Rhaegar as a real player in the Game of Thrones may help fill a lot of holes.

I don't believe that Rhaegar would have found it necessary.  The people cheered for Aerys.  They cheered twice as loud for Tywinn.  But for Rhaegar they even redoubled that.  Rhaegar was well liked by the people.  What he needed was a group of lords paramount that would be willing to oppose Aerys, and those seemed in quite short supply. 

Why did Aerys wait to call in Rhaegar?  Simple, no one knew where Rhaegar was to call him in.  So, Aerys tried the next best thing, Rhaegar's close friend, Jon Connington.  When that fails, Aerys has no choice but to send someone in search of Rhaegar. 

If Lyanna and Rhaegar are not in love, and not married, why would Rhaegar call that location, "the tower of joy"?  Being in love can put blinders on about the outside world's falling into chaos, especially when news is difficult to come by. 

[Rippounet]

1 minute ago, MtnLion said:

I don't believe that Rhaegar would have found it necessary.  The people cheered for Aerys.  They cheered twice as loud for Tywinn.  But for Rhaegar they even redoubled that.  Rhaegar was well liked by the people.  What he needed was a group of lords paramount that would be willing to oppose Aerys, and those seemed in quite short supply.

Exactly. Until Rickard Stark was forced to discuss Lyanna's abduction (and Brandon's subsequent imprisonment) with Aerys...

1 minute ago, MtnLion said:

Why did Aerys wait to call in Rhaegar?  Simple, no one knew where Rhaegar was to call him in.

This was my assumption for a long time and I'm calling this into question now.

From a purely logical perspective it doesn't actually make much sense. If Aerys sent Hightower to look for Rhaegar after a year of war, then it means this was always a possibility. If Aerys didn't do it earlier it's not because he couldn't.
Of course, you could speculate that something else changed: maybe Aerys's close supporters gained intel that they didn't previously have, or maybe Aerys changed his mind. Still, the fact remains that the Crown Prince should have been involved in the fighting much sooner. I think one could argue it's even part of his duties.

1 minute ago, MtnLion said:

If Lyanna and Rhaegar are not in love, and not married, why would Rhaegar call that location, "the tower of joy"?  Being in love can put blinders on about the outside world's falling into chaos, especially when news is difficult to come by. 

Ah, but this is the beauty of this perspective: it does not exclude others. That Rhaegar used Lyanna for political purposes does not mean he wasn't in love with her, or even that he didn't think of prophecy. It just means his actions were far more rational than might seem at first glance.
I'm amazed it took me so long to realise that politics, love, and prophecy as motives for Lyanna's abduction all work if you take them together.