How rich are the Lannister's?

[Neds Secret]

During the first small council meeting in AgoT it is revealed that th crown is 3 million in debt to to both the Iron Bank and the Lannisters.  To me this poses a number of questions, is this a lot of money to Tywin and if it is why did he continue to lend? Additionally, did Tywin know about the crown oweing money to the IBoB as well and if he did was it a problem to him. His grandchildren stood to inherit the throne and with it the debt so do Tywin and the Lannisters have enough to just pay the debt out? Are the Lannisters worth 6 million? Or are they worth 20 million, I am wondering is 6 million a lot to them or is it not really a problem, How wealthy are the Lannisters really?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Given that they're STILL mining gold in Casterly Rock after all these years, I'm fairly certain that the Lannisters will never go broke, be damned what the show tries to do.

Tywin probably doesn't like that the Crown is so severely in debt, but he also knows that the more indebted someone is to him, the more power he acquires. Tywin could, on a whim, waltz into King's Landing and recall the debt and ruin the entire city's infrastructure.

And as for paying it all off, I don't think they have quite enough to pay it all off or else they simply don't want to empty their coffers paying off another man's debts. And if they try to ramp up production and produce more gold to pay it off, it will lead to hyperinflation and ruin the whole economy of Westeros.

[Neds Secret]

44 minutes ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

Given that they're STILL mining gold in Casterly Rock after all these years, I'm fairly certain that the Lannisters will never go broke, be damned what the show tries to do.

Tywin probably doesn't like that the Crown is so severely in debt, but he also knows that the more indebted someone is to him, the more power he acquires. Tywin could, on a whim, waltz into King's Landing and recall the debt and ruin the entire city's infrastructure.

And as for paying it all off, I don't think they have quite enough to pay it all off or else they simply don't want to empty their coffers paying off another man's debts. And if they try to ramp up production and produce more gold to pay it off, it will lead to hyperinflation and ruin the whole economy of Westeros.

But does the debt really hurt Tywin at all. I know in the show they tried to make out that the mines were suddenly barren but I'm positive there is no such trouble in the (Real Story) the books. I'm wondering does this make Tywin incompetent in financial matters, to continue lending money that you cannot afford to a throne that is living way beyond its means seems really dangerous if the reputation of the Iron Bank is to be believed. Is Robert Baratheon Wesreos version of too big to fail?

[Nyrhex]

Kevan considered covering the Iron Bank debt out of the Lannister pocket. 

Quick calculation:

6 mil in debt, 3 to the Lannisters, nearly 1 mil to the faith of the Seven, and ~2 mil to Tyroshi trade cartels, the Tyrells and the Iron Bank combined. Let's say that the Iron Bank had 1 mil, and the Tyrells and the Tyroshi have ~0.5 mil each. Any less and there is little point in even mentioning the small sums to the Tyrells and the Tyroshi. 

The Lannisters can survive without the periodical payments of interest from the Crown, can afford to loan 3 mil in cash, and have available cash to cover ~1 mil for the Iron Bank if they will not accept a deal. This is pretty much all we know. The Lannisters can function without ~4 mil.

So, considering that the Lannisters still need reserves, still need to diversify thier investments and likely loan to others, yes, it seems that the Lannisters are worth plenty more than 4 mil. Are they worth 20 mil? Likely not. Tytos nearly ran them to the ground with smaller loans, so this is likely thier largest investment by far, and Tywin's attempt at securing a legacy, with a future king that shares his blood. So I'd say closer to 6 mil than to 20.

[The Skinner]

I imagine that as long as the iron bank and the iron throne have been doing business there has been some debt. Probably even during Tywin's prosperous tenure as hand. Debt on such a large scale in economics is not necessarily a bad thing all the time. If you make regular, appropriate payments then whoever is loaning to you will be more inclined to grant you further loans, that's the founding principles of credit. However I imagine that Robert's gross misuse of funds outweighed the payments being made and put the IT in massive debt not just to the Braavosi.

But to return to the OP, the Lannisters are probably richer than the gods themselves. I imagine the reason they don't take all the debt is that they themselves have the throne, so it wouldn't gain them anything. 

[mediterraneo]

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

...

Quick calculation:

6 mil in debt, 3 to the Lannisters, nearly 1 mil to the faith of the Seven, and ~2 mil to Tyroshi trade cartels, the Tyrells and the Iron Bank combined. Let's say that the Iron Bank had 1 mil, and the Tyrells and the Tyroshi have ~0.5 mil each. Any less and there is little point in even mentioning the small sums to the Tyrells and the Tyroshi.

...

Baelish affirmed the Crown was six millons debt, but we know from Tyrion's stint as treasurer that the Crown's accounts were flawed: Baelish stole from that a lot, and took more debts than resulting at first glance.
It could be that the overseas debt is larger than that, even substantially larger.

But I guess we will see that in Winds and later.

In any case, what exactly can the Bank do to exact the debt? Declare war on Westeros? Try a continent-wide blockade? Supporting yet another pretender that will lenghten the war and push farther away the payment of any debt, with the risk of losing the fight and lose all of the credit? Hire a Faceless Man (and only the Gods know what their price would be) to kill a King that doesn't want to pay, hoping that his successor is an a better economical condition to pay them? And if that fails, what? You kill his successor again?
I'd like to see them to try and win back that credit from, say, Daenerys.

I'd say that financially the creditor of the Crown is more exposed than the indebted Crown.
It can win lots of influence in the Court though, in exchange to not pushing too much their pretentions on the money. That's what the Sparrows did, isn't it? Exchanging a credit for a big political concession.
The Iron Bank can win more negotiating with the capitol, say, a monopoly of the spice and silk market in King's Landing, a monopoly on the exportation of furs from White Harbor (which the Crown wouldn't lose much to grant) or something.

I find the Iron Bank a bit too much interested in Stannis and Melisandre for it to be just a thing of money. They double the risk, they don't double the winning potential, for what? A macho thing about being paid inmediately and in coins?

[Nyrhex]

16 minutes ago, mediterraneo said:

Baelish affirmed the Crown was six millons debt, but we know from Tyrion's stint as treasurer that the Crown's accounts were flawed: Baelish stole from that a lot, and took more debts than resulting at first glance.
It could be that the overseas debt is larger than that, even substantially larger.

But I guess we will see that in Winds and later.

 

We know that Tyrion has no idea what he is looking at. We can guess that LF was using the crown's funds for his own goals, we can guess that he was outright stealing money, we can guess that LF was hiding these actions in a large 6 mil debt, but it's still a guess. We don't know what he was doing and we don't know how much money he was getting out of it (partially because GRRM has no system in mind and money is money to him, the same sum can be worth a lord's ransom in one chapter and a room for the night at an inn in the other). What I don't see is how one jumps from that to the crown being in for more than the 6 mil in debt that is stated. The Iron Bank shows up well later with the same demands, the Tyrells and the Lannisters know how much the crown owes them, so I can't see where you are getting that the total debt is larger? Are you saying that there are other parties as yet unmentioned who would lend the money? Because there is literally nothing to back this up from the text.

16 minutes ago, mediterraneo said:

In any case, what exactly can the Bank do to exact the debt? Declare war on Westeros? Try a continent-wide blockade? Supporting yet another pretender that will lenghten the war and push farther away the payment of any debt, with the risk of losing the fight and lose all of the credit? Hire a Faceless Man (and only the Gods know what their price would be) to kill a King that doesn't want to pay, hoping that his successor is an a better economical condition to pay them? And if that fails, what? You kill his successor again?
I'd like them to try and win back that credit from, say, Daenerys.

The Iron Bank can exact sanctions. Currently the entire continent of Westeros is on a loan ban from the Iron Bank, retroactively, as in no new loans, and the IB demands all standing loans be repayed ASAP. This is already causing a massive economic crisis in a post-war Westeros that has many who counted on those loans to get them past winter, let alone the mercantile class being almost entirely dependent on loans.

Aside from that, yes, they are funding Stannis' war effort. This is pretty heavily discussed in the books. The Iron Bank's entire point is that it keeps it's reputation. The instant they fail to get thier money back, they are ruined. Funding Stannis' war would cost far more than the current debt, and it would take years before they see a single gold dragon, but it is something they clearly think they can manage while thier coffers are filled with the interest on other loans and other venues of investment, they have the reserves, and while they wage war they still keep their reputation. When they win it they would have the money back from the unpaid loans to the IT, the money they gave Stannis, and most importantly, it would be a massive show of force that would eliminate the need for such a thing in the near future. No one who sees the Iron Bank funding a continent-wide invasion against someone who avoided repaying his loan is going to hold off on repayments.

And yes, that's the entire point. If you fail to pay, the Iron Bank replaces you and the next one better pay up the whole thing or he also dies. It's been a thing for centuries now, and it has served them well.

17 minutes ago, mediterraneo said:

I'd say that financially the creditor of the Crown is more exposed than the indebted Crown.
It can win lots of influence in the Court though, in exchange to not pushing too much their pretentions on the money. That's what the Sparrows did, isn't it? Exchanging a credit for a big political concession.
The Iron Bank can win more negotiating with the capitol, say, a monopoly of the spice and silk market in King's Landing, a monopoly on the exportation of furs from White Harbor (which the Crown wouldn't lose much to grant) or something.

I find the Iron Bank a bit too much interested in Stannis and Melisandre for it to be just a thing of money. They double the risk, they don't double the winning potential, for what? A macho thing about being paid inmediately and in coins?

The Iron Bank is not more exposed than the Iron Throne. They did not give them all of their money. They gave some, and are using some of the rest to get everything back. The IT is exposed because it now has shit credit, and the single most powerfull entiry in Essos is waging war against them while they are in the middle of a civil war. 

Yes, had the Iron Bank had something that the IT could give them that was worth that ~1m gold dragons, they could have made an arrangement. But they did not, they were told to fuck off very publically, and now the Lannisters are trying to control the damage, Kevan going so far as to offer to repay the entire debt out of the Lannisters' pocket. But the damage is done, this is the IB's reputation on the line now, and the current holder of the Iron Throne must be made an example, like so many others before him who thought they could cheat the Iron Bank of what it was due.

The Iron Bank is not risking the gold they are lending Stannis, they are avoiding risking thier reputation with countless monarchs and rulers across two continents. If people see that the Iron Bank's reputaiton is overblown, this only invites more to start causing problems with payments. Overall this is far more damaging than financing one war, something the Iron Bank is clearly able to perform without it impacting it's operations too much.

[SeanF]

During the first small council meeting in AgoT it is revealed that th crown is 3 million in debt to to both the Iron Bank and the Lannisters. To me this poses a number of questions, is this a lot of money to Tywin and if it is why did he continue to lend? Additionally, did Tywin know about the crown oweing money to the IBoB as well and if he did was it a problem to him. His grandchildren stood to inherit the throne and with it the debt so do Tywin and the Lannisters have enough to just pay the debt out? Are the Lannisters worth 6 million? Or are they worth 20 million, I am wondering is 6 million a lot to them or is it not really a problem, How wealthy are the Lannisters really?

I doubt if it's all owed to Tywin, personally. There are hundreds of Lannisters, ranging from the super-rich to the fairly well off (distant cousins, who still follow the lead of the Head of the clan). If Tywin requests them to advance money to the IT, that's what they'll do.

You can be sure it comes at a high price. Lannisters will get offices, tax-farming rights, and probably Crown lands in return.

[mediterraneo]

33 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

We know that Tyrion has no idea what he is looking at. We can guess that LF was using the crown's funds for his own goals, we can guess that he was outright stealing money, we can guess that LF was hiding these actions in a large 6 mil debt, but it's still a guess. We don't know what he was doing and we don't know how much money he was getting out of it (partially because GRRM has no system in mind and money is money to him, the same sum can be worth a lord's ransom in one chapter and a room for the night at an inn in the other). What I don't see is how one jumps from that to the crown being in for more than the 6 mil in debt that is stated. The Iron Bank shows up well later with the same demands, the Tyrells and the Lannisters know how much the crown owes them, so I can't see where you are getting that the total debt is larger? Are you saying that there are other parties as yet unmentioned who would lend the money? Because there is literally nothing to back this up from the text.

The Iron Bank can exact sanctions. Currently the entire continent of Westeros is on a loan ban from the Iron Bank, retroactively, as in no new loans, and the IB demands all standing loans be repayed ASAP. This is already causing a massive economic crisis in a post-war Westeros that has many who counted on those loans to get them past winter, let alone the mercantile class being almost entirely dependent on loans.

Aside from that, yes, they are funding Stannis' war effort. This is pretty heavily discussed in the books. The Iron Bank's entire point is that it keeps it's reputation. The instant they fail to get thier money back, they are ruined. Funding Stannis' war would cost far more than the current debt, and it would take years before they see a single gold dragon, but it is something they clearly think they can manage while thier coffers are filled with the interest on other loans and other venues of investment, they have the reserves, and while they wage war they still keep their reputation. When they win it they would have the money back from the unpaid loans to the IT, the money they gave Stannis, and most importantly, it would be a massive show of force that would eliminate the need for such a thing in the near future. No one who sees the Iron Bank funding a continent-wide invasion against someone who avoided repaying his loan is going to hold off on repayments.

And yes, that's the entire point. If you fail to pay, the Iron Bank replaces you and the next one better pay up the whole thing or he also dies. It's been a thing for centuries now, and it has served them well.

The Iron Bank is not more exposed than the Iron Throne. They did not give them all of their money. They gave some, and are using some of the rest to get everything back. The IT is exposed because it now has shit credit, and the single most powerfull entiry in Essos is waging war against them while they are in the middle of a civil war. 

Yes, had the Iron Bank had something that the IT could give them that was worth that ~1m gold dragons, they could have made an arrangement. But they did not, they were told to fuck off very publically, and now the Lannisters are trying to control the damage, Kevan going so far as to offer to repay the entire debt out of the Lannisters' pocket. But the damage is done, this is the IB's reputation on the line now, and the current holder of the Iron Throne must be made an example, like so many others before him who thought they could cheat the Iron Bank of what it was due.

The Iron Bank is not risking the gold they are lending Stannis, they are avoiding risking thier reputation with countless monarchs and rulers across two continents. If people see that the Iron Bank's reputaiton is overblown, this only invites more to start causing problems with payments. Overall this is far more damaging than financing one war, something the Iron Bank is clearly able to perform without it impacting it's operations too much.

Where in the books do the Iron Bank state that their credit is less than 2 millon crowns?

Where in the books is stated that there is an economical crisis caused by the lack of credit, as opposed as one caused by the lack of manpower on the labor land due to the war, the coming winter, the destruction in the Riverlands and in the western North's coast, and the block of the Manderly's mouth?

[Veloknight]

3 hours ago, Neds Secret said:

But does the debt really hurt Tywin at all. I know in the show they tried to make out that the mines were suddenly barren but I'm positive there is no such trouble in the (Real Story) the books. I'm wondering does this make Tywin incompetent in financial matters, to continue lending money that you cannot afford to a throne that is living way beyond its means seems really dangerous if the reputation of the Iron Bank is to be believed. Is Robert Baratheon Wesreos version of too big to fail?

Most strong and stable governments are. King Bob was supported by a coalition of almost all the most powerful families in the country, toppled a monarchy that was nearly three centuries old, himself used the same institutions, and had a seemingly secure succession. He seems like a very strong candidate to continually make payments, and the catastrophic conditions that could stop those payments have their own cataclysmic implications. Unfortunately for the Iron Bank, said catastrophic conditions did happen and are happening. Now his successors are in a much less secure position to pay, and need time and relief from the debt. If the Iron Bank had confidence in the situation, this might be possible, but given how bad the situation really is, they're in a panic and trying to regain as much as possible.

2 hours ago, mediterraneo said:

Baelish affirmed the Crown was six millons debt, but we know from Tyrion's stint as treasurer that the Crown's accounts were flawed: Baelish stole from that a lot, and took more debts than resulting at first glance.
It could be that the overseas debt is larger than that, even substantially larger.

 It's worth noting that Baelish's investment-driven, Keynesian style of treasury management allows him to embezzle funds while still producing a nominal positive gain for the Crown.

2 hours ago, mediterraneo said:

But I guess we will see that in Winds and later.

In any case, what exactly can the Bank do to exact the debt? Declare war on Westeros? Try a continent-wide blockade? Supporting yet another pretender that will lenghten the war and push farther away the payment of any debt, with the risk of losing the fight and lose all of the credit? Hire a Faceless Man (and only the Gods know what their price would be) to kill a King that doesn't want to pay, hoping that his successor is an a better economical condition to pay them? And if that fails, what? You kill his successor again?
I'd like to see them to try and win back that credit from, say, Daenerys.

I've always wondered about that element of her reign. She could repudiate the rule of Robert entirely, leading to a number of sentences and orders and debts invalid, made under false premises instead of the debtless, lassiez-faire rule of enlightened King Viserys III - but this as a practical matter seems to be fraught with danger. I always thought it would be funny if her reign, functionally and politically, wound up being the heir to Robert (she's nearly as high on his succession list as he was on her father's). Part of the price of being a True Queen winds up being accepting the historical fact of Robert's Rebellion, and assuming his debts while reforming the monarchy further to suit her Restoration. The politics of accepting or rejection various Robertian policies would be really interesting to see up-close, and I hope, given GRRM's statement about Aragorn's tax policy, that he'll indulge.

2 hours ago, mediterraneo said:

I'd say that financially the creditor of the Crown is more exposed than the indebted Crown.
It can win lots of influence in the Court though, in exchange to not pushing too much their pretentions on the money. That's what the Sparrows did, isn't it? Exchanging a credit for a big political concession.

That's a great point. Given the dangers of credit in medieval settings, I think the Sparrows made a brilliant move.

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

The Iron Bank can exact sanctions. Currently the entire continent of Westeros is on a loan ban from the Iron Bank, retroactively, as in no new loans, and the IB demands all standing loans be repayed ASAP. This is already causing a massive economic crisis in a post-war Westeros that has many who counted on those loans to get them past winter, let alone the mercantile class being almost entirely dependent on loans.

That would be deeply stupid. If you use all your sticks at once, you lose the ability to threaten anything further. Suddenly, those blacklisted lords will simply write off their debts to the Iron Bank, while the Seven Kingdoms finds new trading and credit partners. This would hurt the Iron Bank far more than it would hurt the Iron Throne. Plus, Braavos is a finance-oriented merchant republic, while Westeros is a continent - which one of them wins in a trade war?  My money is on the people who don't need to import lumber to stay alive.

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

Aside from that, yes, they are funding Stannis' war effort. This is pretty heavily discussed in the books. The Iron Bank's entire point is that it keeps it's reputation. The instant they fail to get thier money back, they are ruined. Funding Stannis' war would cost far more than the current debt, and it would take years before they see a single gold dragon, but it is something they clearly think they can manage while thier coffers are filled with the interest on other loans and other venues of investment, they have the reserves, and while they wage war they still keep their reputation. When they win it they would have the money back from the unpaid loans to the IT, the money they gave Stannis, and most importantly, it would be a massive show of force that would eliminate the need for such a thing in the near future. No one who sees the Iron Bank funding a continent-wide invasion against someone who avoided repaying his loan is going to hold off on repayments.

And yes, that's the entire point. If you fail to pay, the Iron Bank replaces you and the next one better pay up the whole thing or he also dies. It's been a thing for centuries now, and it has served them well.

I agree on this point. Given the risks creditors take in this particular type of setting, they can think of the Stannis adventure as an investment, with returns coming from higher compliance by other debtors.

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

The Iron Bank is not more exposed than the Iron Throne. They did not give them all of their money. They gave some, and are using some of the rest to get everything back. The IT is exposed because it now has shit credit, and the single most powerfull entiry in Essos is waging war against them while they are in the middle of a civil war. 

Well, financing war against them. I think creditors in general are more exposed than the Iron Throne, but I don't know about this specific case.

 

[Forlong the Fat]

2 hours ago, mediterraneo said:

Baelish affirmed the Crown was six millons debt, but we know from Tyrion's stint as treasurer that the Crown's accounts were flawed: Baelish stole from that a lot, and took more debts than resulting at first glance.
It could be that the overseas debt is larger than that, even substantially larger.

But I guess we will see that in Winds and later.

In any case, what exactly can the Bank do to exact the debt? Declare war on Westeros? Try a continent-wide blockade? Supporting yet another pretender that will lenghten the war and push farther away the payment of any debt, with the risk of losing the fight and lose all of the credit? Hire a Faceless Man (and only the Gods know what their price would be) to kill a King that doesn't want to pay, hoping that his successor is an a better economical condition to pay them? And if that fails, what? You kill his successor again?
I'd like to see them to try and win back that credit from, say, Daenerys.

I'd say that financially the creditor of the Crown is more exposed than the indebted Crown.
It can win lots of influence in the Court though, in exchange to not pushing too much their pretentions on the money. That's what the Sparrows did, isn't it? Exchanging a credit for a big political concession.
The Iron Bank can win more negotiating with the capitol, say, a monopoly of the spice and silk market in King's Landing, a monopoly on the exportation of furs from White Harbor (which the Crown wouldn't lose much to grant) or something.

I find the Iron Bank a bit too much interested in Stannis and Melisandre for it to be just a thing of money. They double the risk, they don't double the winning potential, for what? A macho thing about being paid inmediately and in coins?

I think the Iron Bank has two purposes in helping Stannis. First, they believe he will pay the crown's debts if he sits the throne (and they are right). Second, they are making an example of the Lannisters as to what happens when you default with the Iron Bank. The prospect that the bank will fund your overthrow and death should be a very powerful deterrent to default. 

[SeanF]

Baelish affirmed the Crown was six millons debt, but we know from Tyrion's stint as treasurer that the Crown's accounts were flawed: Baelish stole from that a lot, and took more debts than resulting at first glance.

It could be that the overseas debt is larger than that, even substantially larger.

But I guess we will see that in Winds and later.

In any case, what exactly can the Bank do to exact the debt? Declare war on Westeros? Try a continent-wide blockade? Supporting yet another pretender that will lenghten the war and push farther away the payment of any debt, with the risk of losing the fight and lose all of the credit? Hire a Faceless Man (and only the Gods know what their price would be) to kill a King that doesn't want to pay, hoping that his successor is an a better economical condition to pay them? And if that fails, what? You kill his successor again?

I'd like to see them to try and win back that credit from, say, Daenerys.

I'd say that financially the creditor of the Crown is more exposed than the indebted Crown.

It can win lots of influence in the Court though, in exchange to not pushing too much their pretentions on the money. That's what the Sparrows did, isn't it? Exchanging a credit for a big political concession.

The Iron Bank can win more negotiating with the capitol, say, a monopoly of the spice and silk market in King's Landing, a monopoly on the exportation of furs from White Harbor (which the Crown wouldn't lose much to grant) or something.

I find the Iron Bank a bit too much interested in Stannis and Melisandre for it to be just a thing of money. They double the risk, they don't double the winning potential, for what? A macho thing about being paid inmediately and in coins?

I think the Iron Bank has two purposes in helping Stannis. First, they believe he will pay the crown's debts if he sits the throne (and they are right). Second, they are making an example of the Lannisters as to what happens when you default with the Iron Bank. The prospect that the bank will fund your overthrow and death should be a very powerful deterrent to default.

Oh yes. The Iron Bank could easily absorb a loss of 1 million dragons. But, it's a matter of principle that they punish a government that unilaterally defaults.

[Nyrhex]

1 hour ago, mediterraneo said:

Where in the books do the Iron Bank state that their credit is less than 2 millon crowns?

Where in the books is stated that there is an economical crisis caused by the lack of credit, as opposed as one caused by the lack of manpower on the labor land due to the war, the coming winter, the destruction in the Riverlands and in the western North's coast, and the block of the Manderly's mouth?

We know that the total is 6m, 3m is owed to the Lannisters, 1m to the Faith, and 2m to the Tyrells, the Tyroshi traders and to the Iron Bank combined. Ergo the Iron Bank can't hold more than 2m of the deby even if the Tyrells and the Tyroshi each loaned just one copper to the Iron Throne. The Iron Bank sends representatives in ACOK and well into AFFC, asking about the interest payments of the Iron Throne.

In Cesei VIII, AFFC:

A group of merchants appeared before her to beg the throne to intercede for them with the Iron Bank of Braavos. The Braavosi were demanding repayment of their outstanding debts, it seemed, and refusing all new loans. We need our own bank, Cersei decided, the Golden Bank of Lannisport. Perhaps when Tommen's throne was secure, she could make that happen. For the nonce, all she could do was tell the merchants to pay the Braavosi usurers their due.

Epilogue, ADWD:

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Elsewise—" 

38 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

That would be deeply stupid. If you use all your sticks at once, you lose the ability to threaten anything further. Suddenly, those blacklisted lords will simply write off their debts to the Iron Bank, while the Seven Kingdoms finds new trading and credit partners. This would hurt the Iron Bank far more than it would hurt the Iron Throne. Plus, Braavos is a finance-oriented merchant republic, while Westeros is a continent - which one of them wins in a trade war?  My money is on the people who don't need to import lumber to stay alive.

Those lords can also be tempted to go over to the side that the Iron Bank supports. Look at the NW, they are Stannis' base of operations, and are the only ones aside of Stannis to get a loan. 

The Iron Throne is not going to find new trading and credit partners. Simply put, the Iron Bank is stated to be larger than the rest combined, and the Iron Throne is broke, and with shit credit since it had just defaulted on it's loans. Add to that the Iron Bank's reputation and the latest civil war in Westeros, and you can see from the above quote how the Myrmen are seen as a long shot, a last ditch effort before they are going to have to raise taxes on a war-torn realm right at the start of winter. 

The Iron Bank is not Braavos, this is a very common misconception and very often a theory posted every now and then. The Iron Bank is a bank, it is located in Braavos and holds power in Braavos, but it is not the Sealord that calls the shots in the matters of the IB, and it is not Braavos' assets that the IB is using. We are talking about an international bank which has it's HQ in one of the largest trade hubs in the world, and with branches all over Essos and which counts amongst it's clients such nations as the Iron Throne of Westeros. We are talking about the single most powerfull bank in the world, with the financial means to be a threat to a continent-sized feudal kingdom. The fear from the Iron Bank is presented heavily in Westeros, and for good reason.

Simply put, the Iron Bank wins hands down in a trade war. This is how a medieval merchant works. He gets a loan to buy goods and hire a ship and a crew and get insurance, and when he sells the goods somplace else he gets to keep the profit. Had the merchant only his own funds for this, he would already need to start with alot of money. If you take away loans, you are not just slowing down the economy, you are shooting it in the knee. The Iron Bank is not a trade empire, it is a bank, and on the other continent. It can keep doing it's thing in Essos while financing a war in Westeros, and the Iron Throne has very little to do about it. It's not exactly going to send a fleet to Braavos now, is it? Even if it was, the Iron Bank can hire a larger fleet. Money is such a non-issue to them that Stannis actually has to warn Massey not to hire too many soldiers and ships, because Stannis does not want to increase the loans beyond what is necessary.

47 minutes ago, Veloknight said:

Well, financing war against them. I think creditors in general are more exposed than the Iron Throne, but I don't know about this specific case.

Creditors in our own history were very exposed to medieval kings deciding not to pay. But this is a fantasy setting where it has been established that the Iron Bank holds so much power, that kings and princes and archons know better than to cross them, as evident by a bunch of past cases, and several Westerosi characters who are familiar with the situation in Westeros have already expressed concerns over the danger posed if the Iron Bank is not placated soon.

[Veloknight]

2 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

Those lords can also be tempted to go over to the side that the Iron Bank supports. Look at the NW, they are Stannis' base of operations, and are the only ones aside of Stannis to get a loan. 

The Iron Throne is not going to find new trading and credit partners.

Yes, it will.

Creditors: Maybe not sufficient to cover new huge debts - which will be a problem vis-a-vis mercenaries - but the idea that nobody will give credit to Westeros in that situation is absurd. It's the perfect moment for someone else to step in with a high-rate loan and make a nice profit, if they think they can take the risk. This will prove crippling to the Iron Throne / Westeros, sure, but it won't be gone.

Trade: AFAIK, Braavos isn't even the biggest trade partner in durable goods Westeros is going to have. Westeros has considerable natural resources and there's doubtless plenty of people, including especially island nations like the Summer Islands, that might be in the market.

You're dead right about Stannis, though. That's what makes the IB dangerous right now - they're hostile to the regime at a time when the regime has plenty of credible enemies.

Quote

The Iron Bank is not Braavos, this is a very common misconception and very often a theory posted every now and then. The Iron Bank is a bank, it is located in Braavos and holds power in Braavos, but it is not the Sealord that calls the shots in the matters of the IB, and it is not Braavos' assets that the IB is using. We are talking about an international bank which has it's HQ in one of the largest trade hubs in the world, and with branches all over Essos and which counts amongst it's clients such nations as the Iron Throne of Westeros. We are talking about the single most powerfull bank in the world, with the financial means to be a threat to a continent-sized feudal kingdom. The fear from the Iron Bank is presented heavily in Westeros, and for good reason.

I mean, I'd be afraid of people who played as aggressively as they do, too. That doesn't make them an actual, existential threat to the kingdoms. But they could put a dangerous adversary like Stannis over the top, or keep him alive at a crucial juncture.

Quote

Simply put, the Iron Bank wins hands down in a trade war

No, it doesn't. Remember, trade wars are depressive to the economies of both belligerents - and while no nation is best-off without trade, a continent-sized country can probably handle Autarchy much better than a bank and the city-state it supports.

 

[Nyrhex]

1 hour ago, Veloknight said:

Yes, it will.

Creditors: Maybe not sufficient to cover new huge debts - which will be a problem vis-a-vis mercenaries - but the idea that nobody will give credit to Westeros in that situation is absurd. It's the perfect moment for someone else to step in with a high-rate loan and make a nice profit, if they think they can take the risk. This will prove crippling to the Iron Throne / Westeros, sure, but it won't be gone.

Trade: AFAIK, Braavos isn't even the biggest trade partner in durable goods Westeros is going to have. Westeros has considerable natural resources and there's doubtless plenty of people, including especially island nations like the Summer Islands, that might be in the market.

You're dead right about Stannis, though. That's what makes the IB dangerous right now - they're hostile to the regime at a time when the regime has plenty of credible enemies.

The Small Council is trying to beg the Myrmen for coin right now, it's clear they have a hard time as is (before it is known that the Iron Bank is financing Stannis). 

Anyone who will consider a new loan to the Iron Throne would do so on extremely worse conditions from now on. Even if it gets new loans, we are talking about worse ones, with higher periodical interest payments. Even if the Iron Throne finds enough creditors, we are talking about a worse net situation with the periodical payments.

Trade is not something that you think of only now, it's been going on for thousands of years, there are no new trade partners because everyone is already trading with everyone. Westerosi merchants are going to have a harder time to finance thier trade operations, and everyone is going to give them worse prices because they know that Westerosi merchants have limited options. This is basic economics, no one is going to give Westerosi merchants better prices than before when they see they are running out of options for trade. This is not simply selling goods to X instead of to Y, this is selling goods to X for half prices because X knows that Y isn't buying from you. 

1 hour ago, Veloknight said:

I mean, I'd be afraid of people who played as aggressively as they do, too. That doesn't make them an actual, existential threat to the kingdoms. But they could put a dangerous adversary like Stannis over the top, or keep him alive at a crucial juncture.

They have a reputation of replacing kings, and can afford to finance an army and a fleet and keep the logistics of it going for a new war, plus can bribe lords. This is as existential as it gets if they have you on thier shit list. If Stannis has to warn Massey to take it easy with the credit card because they don't need much more than 20,000 troops, I take that to mean that he has reasons to assume that they can very well afford to hire armies on a scale of a large lord paramount at least (remember that they are doing this while abandoning any and all chance of profit from a continent for the duration of the campaign). Clearly these guys have the funds to be a threat even to the Iron Throne, especially one as weakend as is by civil war.

1 hour ago, Veloknight said:

No, it doesn't. Remember, trade wars are depressive to the economies of both belligerents - and while no nation is best-off without trade, a continent-sized country can probably handle Autarchy much better than a bank and the city-state it supports.

Again, the Iron Bank is not Braavos, they clearly feel they can send an army and tank the Westerosi economy at the same time. If they have enough available funds for that, yes, they win the trade war. Westeros would not turn into stone-age levels of economy, but the market for Westerosi goods is going to be brutal. On the merchants and on the lords who invest in them. Add new taxes to be able to pay the interest rates on new loans, and this is prime grounds to get disgrunted lords willing to switch sides to the side backed by the Iron Bank.

Westeros is not going to block Braavosi trade, it would find itself in war with Braavos itself. It is already at war with the Iron Bank, Braavos is another entity. 

[Veloknight]

21 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

The Small Council is trying to beg the Myrmen for coin right now, it's clear they have a hard time as is (before it is known that the Iron Bank is financing Stannis). 

Anyone who will consider a new loan to the Iron Throne would do so on extremely worse conditions from now on. Even if it gets new loans, we are talking about worse ones, with higher periodical interest payments. Even if the Iron Throne finds enough creditors, we are talking about a worse net situation with the periodical payments.

Yeah, I'll grant that. In fact, that's why I think somebody might step up: they've got some cash, they see a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, and a chance to undercut the mighty Iron Bank's market share and worldwide influence. That the Small Council can't find anyone says really bad things, not for the IT as an institution, but for the Lannister-Baratheons. Basically everyone seems to think they're screwed, which is interesting. I wonder if news about Dany had a chilling effect on the other Free Cities merchants?

21 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Trade is not something that you think of only now, it's been going on for thousands of years, there are no new trade partners because everyone is already trading with everyone.

So? My point was that the Iron Bank does not control the world, and a blanket embargo of Westerosi goods by Iron Bank controlled nations (so, Braavos) would be hurtful but not end Westerosi trade. Even many traders under the influence of the IB may clandestinely continue trade. It's not like the legal system or communication available makes it the easiest to enforce.

21 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Westerosi merchants are going to have a harder time to finance thier trade operations, and everyone is going to give them worse prices because they know that Westerosi merchants have limited options. This is basic economics, no one is going to give Westerosi merchants better prices than before when they see they are running out of options for trade. This is not simply selling goods to X instead of to Y, this is selling goods to X for half prices because X knows that Y isn't buying from you. 

I mean, I expect the short-term consequence to be a big fluctuation in prices for items typically imported from Westeros, which depending on the volume of trade would have serious consequences for the world of the Free Cities, and might make a black market in certain Westerosi goods more common. I totally accept that  the economy of Westeros will shrink significantly as the volume of trade declines and some existing merchants are unable to survive on the new prices.

21 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

They have a reputation of replacing kings, and can afford to finance an army and a fleet and keep the logistics of it going for a new war, plus can bribe lords. This is as existential as it gets if they have you on thier shit list. If Stannis has to warn Massey to take it easy with the credit card because they don't need much more than 20,000 troops, I take that to mean that he has reasons to assume that they can very well afford to hire armies on a scale of a large lord paramount at least (remember that they are doing this while abandoning any and all chance of profit from a continent for the duration of the campaign). Clearly these guys have the funds to be a threat even to the Iron Throne, especially one as weakend as is by civil war.

I don't think we really disagree here.  I am a little more skeptical that they would be a threat to Westeros under a strong monarch, which is I why I used the existential qualifier. Under the current situation, though, the Iron Bank is extremely dangerous.

21 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Again, the Iron Bank is not Braavos, they clearly feel they can send an army and tank the Westerosi economy at the same time. If they have enough available funds for that, yes, they win the trade war. Westeros would not turn into stone-age levels of economy, but the market for Westerosi goods is going to be brutal. On the merchants and on the lords who invest in them. Add new taxes to be able to pay the interest rates on new loans, and this is prime grounds to get disgrunted lords willing to switch sides to the side backed by the Iron Bank.

Westeros is not going to block Braavosi trade, it would find itself in war with Braavos itself. It is already at war with the Iron Bank, Braavos is another entity. 

Well, I think that rests on a lot of assumptions about the level of trade between Westeros and Braavos (and other nations the Iron Bank can control the trade policy of), as well as the importance of foreign trade to the Westerosi economy. My point was just that Westeros is well-equipped to have a complex economy relying solely on internal supply, internal demand, and internal trade - more so than a much smaller nation with much less diversity in terms or resources. Not that Braavos is suddenly cut off from trade, but there aren't *that* many near partners for things like wood. (I think the big forest near Qohor is the only other really good source?) Obviously, due to comparative advantage, Westeros should keep trading anyways - I'm just saying if anyone can do the isolation game, it's Westeros. Worse, if such a campaign persisted for years, Westeros might develop more sophisticated financial  systems themselves, which obviously isn't a great outcome for the Iron Bank.

[Neds Secret]

I originally posed this question to be considered at the time of Jon Arryns death in AGoT. How would Tywins wealth rank compared to the Iron Bank. Could Tywin have indeed started his own Golden bank of Lannisport. If Tywin was indeed the richest most powerful lord in Westeros then how much did he have, where would he come in on Planetos Forbes list?

[desire]

The show says the mines are dead, the books say mine is still running. I say they are still a very very wealthy family.

Highgarden/Oldtown would probably have more gold etc though they have not really suffered war unless you count some minor battles the shields the black water dusk.

[Veloknight]

5 minutes ago, desire said:

The show says the mines are dead, the books say mine is still running. I say they are still a very very wealthy family.

Probably the difference I like most between the show and the books.

5 minutes ago, desire said:

Highgarden/Oldtown would probably have more gold etc though they have not really suffered war unless you count some minor battles the shields the black water dusk.

I agree, and I suspect that their assets are more diversified. This has costs - it's probably harder for them to put up giant sums at the drop of a hat - but their wealth has a very durable base.

 

12 minutes ago, Neds Secret said:

I originally posed this question to be considered at the time of Jon Arryns death in AGoT. How would Tywins wealth rank compared to the Iron Bank. Could Tywin have indeed started his own Golden bank of Lannisport. If Tywin was indeed the richest most powerful lord in Westeros then how much did he have, where would he come in on Essos's Forbes list?

Well, I'm not sure of all that, but one thing I considered in my discussion about trade with Nyrhex was exactly that possibility. Honestly, I'm amazed that they haven't done this before, and much more aggressively, and the only reason I can think to explain it is that Westerosi feudalism made it impossible for the Lannisters to consider. That might also explain the longevity of the mines: they've been continually mined, but not as intensively as someone focused on acting as a major investment bank and central bank rolled into one might. I don't have the world book - does anyone have a sense from TWOIAF about how intensively the Rock is mined?

[mediterraneo]

14 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

We know that the total is 6m, 3m is owed to the Lannisters, 1m to the Faith, and 2m to the Tyrells, the Tyroshi traders and to the Iron Bank combined. Ergo the Iron Bank can't hold more than 2m of the deby even if the Tyrells and the Tyroshi each loaned just one copper to the Iron Throne. The Iron Bank sends representatives in ACOK and well into AFFC, asking about the interest payments of the Iron Throne.

In Cesei VIII, AFFC:

A group of merchants appeared before her to beg the throne to intercede for them with the Iron Bank of Braavos. The Braavosi were demanding repayment of their outstanding debts, it seemed, and refusing all new loans. We need our own bank, Cersei decided, the Golden Bank of Lannisport. Perhaps when Tommen's throne was secure, she could make that happen. For the nonce, all she could do was tell the merchants to pay the Braavosi usurers their due.

Epilogue, ADWD:

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Elsewise—" 

....

I think we are missing the point here. my question comes from the first statement of that "six millon debt" by Baelish, which I questioned because of Tyrion questioning his accountings, suggesting he is stealing from the money of the Crown and taking more debts than what he recognized in the Small Council.
And the two citations there are NOT a statement from the bank that says that their effective credit with the Crown is under two millons dragons.