Darksky Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Interesting analysis of ASOIAF's wars/battle victories/deaths in light of the Battle of the Bastards https://imgur.com/a/NehKP Higher rate of victories for smaller armies. And lol @ Stannis. The greatest military commander eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Since the Wars of the Roses are so often invoked in connection with this series my assumption for this battle that someone betrays Snow-Stark-Etc. at a crucial moment on the field and throws his forces in aid of the Bolton's. This kind of behavior was not unknown in the Wars of the Roses -- or even way back during the wars of Stephen and Matilda, and even Henry II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 On 6/16/2016 at 1:05 PM, Lord Friendzone said: Where is the proof she isn't. Plenty of people saw her birth at Dragonstone. You can't be fake Targaryen to give a birth to three dragons, being fireproof or resistant to heat in the books. Also her hair and all that is positive. Jon looks like a Stark more than Targaryen, no proof unless they found something. George probably figured it out but interesting to see how show handles it. Actually, no they didn't. Rhaella died in childbirth during a period of extreme chaos and the baby was spirited away by some nights and her nurse as the garrison wanted to sell her to Stannis in exchange for not killing them. But Stannis would have done that anyway. There probably were not many in actual attendance at the birth, and all of them promptly disappeared. The story of her being Rhaella's daughter comes from these few people, and they are not around any more. So it is entirely possible that Rhaella's child was stillborn, and Rhaegar's bastard was substituted instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 4 hours ago, RUSSELL BELL said: I'm sure its been said multiple times on this thread already. It'd be bad writing to kill Jon off again after bringing him back and I don't mind the obvious outcome of Jon and Sansa winning. However, it would be really annoying if they do the stupid trick of having some other army save them in the last minute. I don't care whether or not Stannis saving the Nights watch or Tywin saving the City watch was in the books or not. We've seen that stupid trick done twice already. Please do not do a third time like Jaqen says. That would really piss me off. After the Stark army is defeated, Mel will raise her arms and the dead Stark forces will all rise again. This will scare the crap out of the Bolton soldiers, and they will flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's ok I'm the Glass Guy Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Jon Snow will die, Melisandre will die, too, but Beric Dondarrion will show up and give Jon the Kiss of Life. Jon will be all upset at being revived again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yakisikli123 Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 I think Jon will win the battle with 2000 wildlings etc. without help of Vale army, but the real qustion is whats next. Sansa betrays him or not, the reaction of LF and northeners, what will he do when he learns about RLJ etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Friendzone Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 3 hours ago, tugela said: Actually, no they didn't. Rhaella died in childbirth during a period of extreme chaos and the baby was spirited away by some nights and her nurse as the garrison wanted to sell her to Stannis in exchange for not killing them. But Stannis would have done that anyway. There probably were not many in actual attendance at the birth, and all of them promptly disappeared. The story of her being Rhaella's daughter comes from these few people, and they are not around any more. So it is entirely possible that Rhaella's child was stillborn, and Rhaegar's bastard was substituted instead. Don't you think Viserys would remember, he was old enough. Did the show questioned her birth...no so she is who she is. Substitued Rhaella's daughter for Rhaegar's bastard? So you think Daeny is Rhaegar's daughter? Did the show lead to this...I think you can answer this to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, Lord Friendzone said: Don't you think Viserys would remember, he was old enough. Did the show questioned her birth...no so she is who she is. Substitued Rhaella's daughter for Rhaegar's bastard? So you think Daeny is Rhaegar's daughter? Did the show lead to this...I think you can answer this to yourself. He was a very young boy in a medieval court. He would not have cared, and it is pretty unlikely that he would have been anywhere near the birth. Don't think of events as playing out as in modern life, these sorts of people would have thought and acted very differently from you, especially from that social strata. If he saw a baby and they told him it was Rhaella's baby, he would know no different. And remember, Ser Barristan, who knew Aerys and Rhaella extremely well, on meeting Daenerys thought she looked like the spitting image of another woman, who he also knew extremely well, a woman who just happened to be a lady of the court and was pregnant at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maid So Fair Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, tugela said: He was a very young boy in a medieval court. He would not have cared, and it is pretty unlikely that he would have been anywhere near the birth. Don't think of events as playing out as in modern life, these sorts of people would have thought and acted very differently from you, especially from that social strata. If he saw a baby and they told him it was Rhaella's baby, he would know no different. The magically appearing newborn with Targaryen colouring? At that sort of age even a couple of weeks make all the difference. Also this is not how it works - even if she was a fake everybody believe her to be a true Targaryen and exactly who she says she is. Never at any point do we see anybody question this. Therefore there's a presumption that she is indeed the daughter of Rhaelle and Aerys and the onus of proof would e on the person alleging otherwise. It's basically the reversal of the situation of any bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said: The magically appearing newborn with Targaryen colouring? At that sort of age even a couple of weeks make all the difference. Also this is not how it works - even if she was a fake everybody believe her to be a true Targaryen and exactly who she says she is. Never at any point do we see anybody question this. Therefore there's a presumption that she is indeed the daughter of Rhaelle and Aerys and the onus of proof would e on the person alleging otherwise. It's basically the reversal of the situation of any bastard. Ser Barristan did. And he is the character best able to make that judgement in the story, since he is the only one who has actually met everyone concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maid So Fair Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, tugela said: Ser Barristan did. And he is the character best able to make that judgement in the story, since he is the only one who has actually met everyone concerned. He never doubt her identity. He doubts whether she's fit to rule, which is another question entirely. Also iirc he never does that in the show, just in the books as we get no period of him hiding his identity to take a measure of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Maid So Fair said: He never doubt her identity. He doubts whether she's fit to rule, which is another question entirely. Also iirc he never does that in the show, just in the books as we get no period of him hiding his identity to take a measure of her. This is what he had to say on the matter: Quote Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara’s daughter ... But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well Who was Ashara? Princess Elia's lady in waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rory Snow Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 What difference does it make? Rhaegar's sister.. his daughter.. who cares? She's still the last known Targaryen, the Mother of Dragons, the Breaker of Chains, the Unburnt, etc etc... She survived an inferno, her position is basically undeniable regardless of her parentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maid So Fair Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 4 hours ago, tugela said: This is what he had to say on the matter: Who was Ashara? Princess Elia's lady in waiting. You're reading way too much into it - he just thinks they have similar eyes and the Daynes are known for Targ colours. Hes daydreaming about a woman he used to love that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watcher of the night Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said: You're reading way too much into it - he just thinks they have similar eyes and the Daynes are known for Targ colours. Hes daydreaming about a woman he used to love that's all. Yeah but why would G.R.R.M wrote down such daydreaming? It is not that he had to ... The biggest blow to Daenerys would be if it turns out hat she is not the legit child of Aerys. ps. I guess this discussion would belong to an other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said: You're reading way too much into it - he just thinks they have similar eyes and the Daynes are known for Targ colours. Hes daydreaming about a woman he used to love that's all. No, he thinks she looks just like Ashara's daughter would, except that Ashara's daughter was stillborn (or so he heard), so he dismisses the idea. The implication is that is Ashara's daughter was not stillborn, that is exactly who Daenerys is. He doesn't mention anything about her looking like Aerys or Rhaella, or being like them, or having any similarities to either. He comments that she is Rhaegars sister, in that she takes after him. The two people he compares her to as being just like are Ashara and Rhaegar, not Aerys and Rhaella. These were people who he all knew very well, so when he identifies the male and female she most resembles, it is reasonable to conclude that those two individuals are her parents. That is pretty direct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugela Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 3 hours ago, Rory Snow said: What difference does it make? Rhaegar's sister.. his daughter.. who cares? She's still the last known Targaryen, the Mother of Dragons, the Breaker of Chains, the Unburnt, etc etc... She survived an inferno, her position is basically undeniable regardless of her parentage. It is important, because if she is Rhaegar's child then she is a bastard and has no valid claim to the iron throne. Her real name would be Daenerys Sands, not Targaryen. It would mean that the Targaryen name had been extinguished. They would be like the Reynes of Castamere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerBeehan Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 I think the Umbers will turn on the Bolton's possibly during the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Survivor92 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 The Vale army is totally gonne save them at the last minute. People say that this is also in the books (Blackwater, Stannis at the Wall), or in other media (LotR) which is somehow an excuse. But there's a big difference here. The Wall and Blackwater were both hopeless battles where last-minute the cavalry came in to save the day, yes. But the cavalry arrived to save the defending army. The army that had pretty much no choice but to make their last stand. It's the same with Helms Deep and Minas Tirith. Sure, it's quite convenient that the cavalry arrives at such impeccable timing (although you could argue for Minas Tirith, they're quite late); but the defenders aren't depicted as retarded strategists because they have no choice but to make their last stand. For Jon though, this is not the case since he is the aggressor. He is making the choice to fight an uphill battle (and he is extremely lucky that Ramsay even comes out to meet him on the field! the castle is like right next to the battlefield) against a far superior force. Logically, he's gonna lose the battle and then last-minute he's gonna be saved by the Vale. That's a problem right there. How can you root for the main characters when they don't act like they deserve the victory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord of Nutella Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Its really stupid. In ep7, sansa even says "we need more men!" And jon replies: " no, we gotta attack with what we have now!" . Why????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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