Robb had no choice

[Canon Claude]

10 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Robb had grievances, but how was invading the south supposed to address them? It was vengeance, which is valued by the fictional culture to which Robb belongs, but does nothing to secure the release of of his family. He abandoned a huge defensive advantage by going south of Moat Cailin, and that choice bottlenecked his troops physically as well as his decision making. Once Robb lost the option of retreat, the war became a suicide mission.

 

The leader who hid behind Moat Cailin while his kin were captured or getting killed does not long stay the leader.

[cgrav]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

The leader who hid behind Moat Cailin while his kin were captured or getting killed does not long stay the leader.

nor do those who abandon their best defenses. Robb left the North vulnerable with no competent leader in Winterfell.

I get that his dilemma had domestic political consequences in the North, but in terms of his basic lordly/kingly duties to protect his people, personally invading the  South was not practical. 

Robb's story starts out as a fairly typical medieval tale of a lord seeking righteous vengeance, but as the books progress we see other houses like the Lannisters, Tyrells, and Arryns pulling away the principles of honor that drive Robb's cause. They suffer losses, as well, but none so terrible as the North's and Riverlands'. And, to the point of this thread, their losses are not immediately caused by their own shortsighted decisions. The books erode this idea that vengeance must be sought at all cost to the point that I think we are supposed to see Robb as a poor leader.

edit: text size is being goofy, not meant as emphasis

[The Frosted King]

On 9/21/2016 at 11:12 AM, cgrav said:

nor do those who abandon their best defenses. Robb left the North vulnerable with no competent leader in Winterfell.

I get that his dilemma had domestic political consequences in the North, but in terms of his basic lordly/kingly duties to protect his people, personally invading the  South was not practical. 

Robb's story starts out as a fairly typical medieval tale of a lord seeking righteous vengeance, but as the books progress we see other houses like the Lannisters, Tyrells, and Arryns pulling away the principles of honor that drive Robb's cause. They suffer losses, as well, but none so terrible as the North's and Riverlands'. And, to the point of this thread, their losses are not immediately caused by their own shortsighted decisions. The books erode this idea that vengeance must be sought at all cost to the point that I think we are supposed to see Robb as a poor leader.

edit: text size is being goofy, not meant as emphasis

 

I don't think we're supposed to merely see Robb contrasted to the heads of those houses and think them = good rulers and him = bad ruler. Each power does what they think is best, and they all suffer for it. That is the lesson of ruling in these books.

Lysa is killed by the very man she basically made, after outing herself as an incredibly selfish, stupid liar whose decisions had far reaching consequences.

Tywin is killed by his second son, who he imprisoned because he thought he killed Joffrey but the Tyrells did that, only Tywin himself opened the door to depravity and horrors by signing off on the Red Wedding. Which Lady Olenna took her cue from, just more refined.

The Tyrells and LF i can't speak on, as their stories aren't finished yet, but Lysa Arryn and Tywin Lannister very much invited in their murderers. 

Lysa setting her sister's family on the path to destruction, and then closing her ears to their calls for aid works well for her now, but when the Freys rule the riverlands and the Boltons rule the north, who cares about the good of poor, shaking SweetRobin?

When Edmure Tully held the Trident and Robb Stark Winterfell, he is bolstered by two strong allies, united in blood. Now? People ask when LF will slip a pellet into his juice.

The Red Wedding was everything that a short sighted decision could ever be. Immediate gain, but long term consequences? Check.

Robb had a choice, and he made the best of it. It's too bad that his name was the coin used to purchase the Stark downfall, so that later on Jon Snow can use his coin to buy the ascent.

 

[cgrav]

There are always consequences, but in Robb's case it was hardly the result of a long chain of unforeseeable events. He basically drove his army into a meat grinder knowing the odds were long, and achieved nothing in the process.

 The Red Wedding "seemed like a good idea at the time", while Robb's decisions could have been weighed much more carefully and come to better results. If not for him personally, then at least for the many who died for him.

Robb was bound to principles that limited his decision making such that he would not consider more practical options. Those options would have had consequences hard to stomach, no doubt, but having the benefit of hindsight, they are definitely still preferable to what ended up happening. 

[Targaryen Restoration]

On 9/21/2016 at 0:10 PM, cgrav said:

Robb had grievances, but how was invading the south supposed to address them? It was vengeance, which is valued by the fictional culture to which Robb belongs, but does nothing to secure the release of of his family. He abandoned a huge defensive advantage by going south of Moat Cailin, and that choice bottlenecked his troops physically as well as his decision making. Once Robb lost the option of retreat, the war became a suicide mission.

 

Yes.  He was even more of a fool to let himself be crowned king in the north.

[Aetta]

There is always a choice.  Even if the choices are rock vs hard place.

He could have chosen to stay in the North with the other male heirs. 

He could have chosen to take up Stannis's cause as his liege lord.

He could have chosen to keep Theon close at hand.

He could have worked with Howland Reed to shore up The Neck.

He could have offered a marriage alliance to Daenerys Targaryen

He could have forged an alliance with Mance Rayder. That could've been some mad genius shit right there.

And all the many, many, many things he could have done once he DID go south? Well, that list is much longer.

 

[Aetta]

On 9/21/2016 at 0:21 PM, Canon Claude said:

The leader who hid behind Moat Cailin while his kin were captured or getting killed does not long stay the leader.

Um, tell Rickard Stark that.  Bet he wishes he hid behind Moat Cailin.

[cgrav]

1 hour ago, Aetta said:

Um, tell Rickard Stark that.  Bet he wishes he hid behind Moat Cailin.

Yeah, this is the lesson you'd think Robb would have learned after 2 consecutive generations and 3 close family members died trying to obtain justice from the Crown. Being King in the North means being King in the North. 

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, Aetta said:

Um, tell Rickard Stark that.  Bet he wishes he hid behind Moat Cailin.

And what do you suppose men would have said about Rickard Stark had he hidden behind Moat Cailin when his king commanded him to answer for his son's imprisonment? Remember, Brandon rode up to King's Landing like a completely unhinged imbecile and demanded that the Prince of the Seven Kingdoms come out and die.

 

38 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Yeah, this is the lesson you'd think Robb would have learned after 2 consecutive generations and 3 close family members died trying to obtain justice from the Crown. Being King in the North means being King in the North. 

It's a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. You march, it's treason and you're outnumbered in a long war. If you hide behind the Moat, it's still treason but now your own bannermen think you're a coward and mock you for it.

[cgrav]

Better mocked than dead. Robb's duty was to protect his people, not his pride. He had the rest of his life to do things for glory.

[Aetta]

33 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

It's a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. You march, it's treason and you're outnumbered in a long war. If you hide behind the Moat, it's still treason but now your own bannermen think you're a coward and mock you for it.

Not so sure that northerners would be much bothered had Robb left the trash out front and locked the door.  That is, I think the other houses would've been fine with Robb deciding that retribution would be carried out from the North and that the North would secede and/or join Stannis.  What's wrong with Northron Ambitions? See my post above, there are lots of ways to skin a cat that I think some of the other houses would have rather enjoyed employing and would not have thought Robb a coward whatsoever.

[devilish]

By the time Robb joined the fray there were three contenders for the crown which were the Baratheon Brothers and Joffrey. All of them may have hated one another but they had 1 thing in common. They were all determined to rule over all Westeros.

Renly wouldn’t have been too much pissed off about the fact Robb didn’t join his cause. Frankly he didn’t need him. He would have settled for Robb to bend the knee once all the dust has settled especially since Renly was in no mood to have his arse frozen by sieging Winterfell. However we can’t say the same about the other two. Joffrey wanted Robb to kiss his arse by coming to KL and bend the knee and Stannis letter was quite clear ie bend the knee or I would destroy you. No ifs, no buts. Once Robb refused to do so then he would have committed treason.  It is one thing not answering a call that never arrived or hide by to the fact that you’re still too young and mummy (whose regent) is cuckoo but once you’re in a fighting age, if a king comes knocking, you’ll have to open.

Also Eddard was bound with the Tullys by blood. A Lord that refuses to protect his Uncle when he’s being attacked would not be trusted again especially since it was perfectly evident that Edmure was being attacked not for what he did but what the Starks did. That’s quite significant considered that Robb had already burnt bridges (and rightly so) with the crown, which means, that it was only a matter of time before the crown will come for him. No region, no matter how vast and rich it is can withstand an invasion of most of the remaining Westerosi regions, who would eventually bend the knee to some king.

Ideally Robb should have been given the time needed to prepare for all this. He would have time to mobilize more soldiers, convince the Vale to join and to seal important alliances with either Renly or Stannis. Robb wouldn’t have needed to cross quickly to the Riverlands, which would have made the Freys far less important and would open the gates to a whole new set of matchups and therefore alliances. Unfortunately that option was stripped away from him by Tywin who quickly invaded the Riverlands, holing Edmure into a horrible spot.

So in few words, Robb had no choice but to join the fray. However, even under such circumstances, the war was his to lose. If Robb joined Renly, Renly’s army would have been so big that would have quickly crushed the enemy. Even if Stannis did managed to kill Renly with magic, Robb would have been in the perfect spot to seal a deal between Stannis and/or with the Tyrells. If given support by the Riverlands and the North, Mace could have been swayed in aiming for the top spot himself (actually for his son Willas) especially since the other options weren’t that great (the Tyrells had committed treason against Joffrey and couldn’t support Stannis considering that he’s married to a Florent). The alliance matchups were there to seal the deal. Robb would marry Margaery Tyrell, Willas would marry Danny (she would certainly consider it, if that means a fast track route to the iron throne) giving the crown legitimacy in the same way Argella gave to Orys, Loras would marry Sansa (both would be given CR and Loras would be appointed Lord Paramount of the rich westerlands) and Edmure would marry a disgruntled Frey instead of Robb. Such arrangement could have been enough to convince the Martells to join the fray too (the prospect of a Targ on the iron throne, most Baratheons killed and the Lannisters heads stuck to a pike in KL may prove a temptation too big for the Martells to refuse). Danny would take the crown and have her revenge over the Lannisters (the latter is a feeling Robb would want too), Mace would see a Tyrell sitting on the iron throne, Sansa will finally marry her knight in shining armour and everyone would have lived happy ever after. Robb mistake was not in joining the war but in putting a crown on his head.

 

 

 

 

 

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

On 21-9-2016 at 8:38 AM, Lord Lannister said:

If Robb engaged Tywin with his full force, perhaps even with Lord Frey joining him, it's possible he could've beaten Tywin. Not likely, but possible. Even had he lost, Tywin likely would've been inclined to offer Robb relatively magnanimous terms given the threat of Renly and Stannis.

The amount of people who think Tywin would have to surrender if he lost a single battle to Robb is too damn high. IF Robb went against Tywin with his full force AND managed to win, Tywin would simply retreat with the bulk of his army, lick his wounds and fight another day, just like Roose Bolton did. And Jaime's army would be intact, besieging Riverrun and still have Edmure as a hostage. Or do you think Robb could get Tywin, who was leading his RESERVES, deep enough into the battle for Robb to take Tywin captive like he did Jaime? I don't think Tywin would fall that easily.

 

On 21-9-2016 at 9:58 AM, devilish said:

b- Not informing Edmure of the plans. Robb's trap for Tywin was clever, however you cant expect Edmure to read his mind. 

Likewise, I don't think Tywin would fall for Robb's trap in the Westerlands. It certainly wasn't that clever. All we hear is Robb found a spot where he would have the advantage fighting Tywin, so do you think Tywin would fight Robb in that spot? I don't. And I don't think Robb would.

 

On 21-9-2016 at 2:37 PM, jrod said:

b- While I kind of agree with you, not sure of all the specifics of that situation.  But Edmure did disobey the orders he was given, which was wrong on his part.  Even if he didn't know exactly why (and probably he should have known), he should have followed the orders he was givne.

Edmure didn't disobey any orders. His orders were to DEFEND RIVERRUN. If Edmure thought the best way to defend Riverrun was to stop the Lannisters from crossing the Red Fork, that would not have been disobeying orders.

 

Now to the topic at hand. I think Robb had little choice in his situation. He HAD to go south to defend the Riverlands and free his father, or lose an alliance with the Riverlands and the respect of his bannermen. Then, he made the right choice in crossing the Twins to relieve the siege of Riverrun. Jaime could have been traded for Ned, had bone-headed Joffrey not killed him, and the war would have been over.

When Ned was killed, Robb HAD to except his crown as King in the North when his bannermen started proclaiming him as such, or lose their support. Had Renly not died, Robb could have kept this symbolic crown once Renly beat the Lannisters, while really nothing changed, and the war would have been over.

It was a smart move to invade the Westerlands and weaken the Lannisters some more, but then Robb started making mistakes. Mistakes that cost him. First, marrying Jeyne is SOOO stupid! Then, killing Lord Karstark could have at least been postponed until after the war was over.

Then, Robb tried to fix his mistakes and the alliance by getting Edmure to marry a Frey in his stead. This, again, was the best possible thing he could do at the time. Unfortunately, this played right into Walder's betrayal.

In the end, Robb had little choice in going to war. The cards were stacked against him from the get-go, and everything that could go wrong, went wrong. Robb, in the beginning, did everything right, but once he started making mistakes they cost him most dearly. On the contrary to, apparently, most of this forum, I think neither Robb nor Edmure is an idiot, and neither should get the blame for Robb's downfall. That was due to a combination of unfortunate events, like Ned's death, Renly's death, the Tyrell-Lannister alliance arriving just in time to relieve King's Landing, and the Bolton and Frey betrayals. Sure, Robb and Edmure unwittingly had a role in these events, but they can't be blamed for it (maybe Robb can be blamed partly, but not fully).

[devilish]

1 minute ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

 

 

Likewise, I don't think Tywin would fall for Robb's trap in the Westerlands. It certainly wasn't that clever. All we hear is Robb found a spot where he would have the advantage fighting Tywin, so do you think Tywin would fight Robb in that spot? I don't. And I don't think Robb would.

 

 

Tywin is a great negotiator but he's not a great tactician. He left his fleet unprotected at Lannisport which caused the Greyjoys to burn it like a bonfire, he handled half his army to his idiotic son and he didn't thought that it would be wise to keep Joffrey under check by sending Kevan to KL from day 1 following his incoronation. The Lannisters were lucky that Stannis used magic to kill Renly. Else they would have lost the war just like Robb did. 

[desire]

There was no choice. He said it best I will not huddle behind winterfells walls whilst men die for me 

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

3 minutes ago, devilish said:

Tywin is a great negotiator but he's not a great tactician. He left his fleet unprotected at Lannisport which caused the Greyjoys to burn it like a bonfire, he handled half his army to his idiotic son and he didn't thought that it would be wise to keep Joffrey under check by sending Kevan to KL from day 1 following his incoronation. The Lannisters were lucky that Stannis used magic to kill Renly. Else they would have lost the war just like Robb did. 

I agree that Tywin isn't that great a tactician. He underestimated Robb at the Battle of the Green Fork, and acknowledges that. But he does seem to have learned from it, though, since Tywin never actually gets to fight Robb, I'll grant you that we can't be sure if he has.

Besides, I think it's something different to be surprised during an apparently peaceful time by the Greyjoy's starting a rebellion by burning your fleet than it is entering your own land, the land you know best, expecting having to fight a battle somewhere and walking into a trap. Plus, while we see Jaime being bored riding out with his scouts to fight raiding parties, Tywin seems to at least be more cautious, if not smarter than that. Besides this, we see Tywin extensively scouting ahead. Therefore, the logical conclusion I come to is that Tywin would scout out Robb's position, know that this engagement would be disadvantageous, try to outmaneuver him or try to wait for Robb's supplies to run out and have him move against Tywin. In the end, I don't think Robb is an idiot either and wouldn't fall for Tywin's plan, but I don't think Tywin would fall for Robb's either.

To your other jabs at being a shitty tactician, I'd say Jaime isn't an idiot either. He was just very rash, but before that did manage to win some battles and take Edmure captive. Therefore he seems to be a sound military leader that just lacks the patience for sieges. And thinking a 12-year old can be kept in check by mommy doesn't seem terribly strange either. It's all well and good arguing what to do from hindsight, but we have to take into account what the characters know at the time, and in aGoT we see Joffrey is great at keeping up appearances. Sure, he seems a shitty kid, but not the monster we all know him to be (except for when Nymeria bit him, but only Sansa and Arya witnessed that, and poor Mycah of course).

I agree with you the Lannisters were lucky with Renly's death, without which it wouldn't even be an option for Tywin to go after Robb in the Westerlands. Which makes me question if it was indeed Robb's plan to trick Tywin when it makes more sense to have Renly kill him. Of course, he could have come up with it after hearing of Renly's death, but it certainly wasn't his reason for invading the Westerlands like people claim when they blame Edmure for stopping Tywin.

[devilish]

53 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

I agree that Tywin isn't that great a tactician. He underestimated Robb at the Battle of the Green Fork, and acknowledges that. But he does seem to have learned from it, though, since Tywin never actually gets to fight Robb, I'll grant you that we can't be sure if he has.

Besides, I think it's something different to be surprised during an apparently peaceful time by the Greyjoy's starting a rebellion by burning your fleet than it is entering your own land, the land you know best, expecting having to fight a battle somewhere and walking into a trap. Plus, while we see Jaime being bored riding out with his scouts to fight raiding parties, Tywin seems to at least be more cautious, if not smarter than that. Besides this, we see Tywin extensively scouting ahead. Therefore, the logical conclusion I come to is that Tywin would scout out Robb's position, know that this engagement would be disadvantageous, try to outmaneuver him or try to wait for Robb's supplies to run out and have him move against Tywin. In the end, I don't think Robb is an idiot either and wouldn't fall for Tywin's plan, but I don't think Tywin would fall for Robb's either.

To your other jabs at being a shitty tactician, I'd say Jaime isn't an idiot either. He was just very rash, but before that did manage to win some battles and take Edmure captive. Therefore he seems to be a sound military leader that just lacks the patience for sieges. And thinking a 12-year old can be kept in check by mommy doesn't seem terribly strange either. It's all well and good arguing what to do from hindsight, but we have to take into account what the characters know at the time, and in aGoT we see Joffrey is great at keeping up appearances. Sure, he seems a shitty kid, but not the monster we all know him to be (except for when Nymeria bit him, but only Sansa and Arya witnessed that, and poor Mycah of course).

I agree with you the Lannisters were lucky with Renly's death, without which it wouldn't even be an option for Tywin to go after Robb in the Westerlands. Which makes me question if it was indeed Robb's plan to trick Tywin when it makes more sense to have Renly kill him. Of course, he could have come up with it after hearing of Renly's death, but it certainly wasn't his reason for invading the Westerlands like people claim when they blame Edmure for stopping Tywin.

Tywin is possibly one of my favourite characters but

a-    He’s not a tactical genius. He left his fleet unprotected at Lannisport., he handled his naïve son half an army, his lack of commitment to Robert’s cause was pretty stupid (Aerys hated the Lannisters and he would have them ruined sooner or later. It might as well be a good idea to take the only opportunity of getting rid of him especially since a grateful King Robert would probably grant Tywin everything he wished) and he was outwitted by two boys (Robb military wise and Joffrey when he committed one of the biggest brainfarts in GOT series and he executed Eddard). 

b-    He’s not that good at reading people. He allowed his twins to get too close and he had no idea what was going between them.  He trusted Jamie and Joffrey too much, despite it was evident that they were far from fit for the task at hand and he absolutely hated Tyrion which is quite a shame since he was the only person who had brains in that family (apart from himself). 

c-    Tywin suffered from the same fits of rage Cersei had. I mean, ok the Reynes should have been punished fiercely. However what’s the point in drowning their mines which were brimming with gold? What’s the point of sending Gregor to crush Elia and her children turning the Martells into sworn enemies? Let the Baratheons handle that problem.  

I see Tywin as the combination of his three children

a-    He’s got Jamie’s looks. He’s handsome, tall and he’s got that same imposing presence
b-    He’s got Tyrion’s top quality administrative skills + that world class knack of making people do his bidding and feeling grateful for doing it. (The way he screwed Walder and Roose is brilliant, they basically took the heat of killing Robb without taking a single soldier/marriage in exchange. Riverrun was given to his sister and children who bullied her husband at every turn. Meanwhile Roose was given the Lord Paramount of the North role until he sorts the North out (then it would move to Tyrion-Sansa’s child))
c-    He’s got his daughter fits of rage. 

Tywin triumphed not because of his military skill but because he was able to negotiate a deal with the Tyrells. Once that was sealed, the rebellion was doomed. No one can take the combined Reach-Westerlands army down without the help of the flying reptiles backing them.

So to answer your question. I can see Tywin falling into that trap. Tywin was brilliant and his brilliance made the entire difference (+ Stannis magic) but being a military genius is not part of his skillset. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

I agree with you the Lannisters were lucky with Renly's death, without which it wouldn't even be an option for Tywin to go after Robb in the Westerlands. Which makes me question if it was indeed Robb's plan to trick Tywin when it makes more sense to have Renly kill him. Of course, he could have come up with it after hearing of Renly's death, but it certainly wasn't his reason for invading the Westerlands like people claim when they blame Edmure for stopping Tywin.

Robb's main reason for invading the Westerlands was to destroy Stafford's army before it could be trained and deployed into the Riverlands . The overwhelming success of that action and the realization that he could stay pretty much unchallenged by the Westerland Lords in the West and disrupt Tywin's ability to receive any resources or reinforcements forced him to change his plans. The main plan was to stay in the West and wait for Tywin and Renly to fight it out but if Tywin choose to come West and deal with Robb then the second plan was to keep Tywin away from Kings Landing as long as possible and if an opportunity came to trick him into an ambush came then great if not just let him chase them around the West for a while and then escape back to the Riverlands . Renly getting killed and Edmure stopping Tywin from coming West and Stannis attacking Kings Landing without taking care of the Tyrells first all led to Robb's plans going to hell . 

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

9 minutes ago, devilish said:

Tywin is possibly one of my favourite characters but

a-    He’s not a tactical genius. He left his fleet unprotected at Lannisport., he handled his naïve son half an army, his lack of commitment to Robert’s cause was pretty stupid (Aerys hated the Lannisters and he would have them ruined sooner or later. It might as well be a good idea to take the only opportunity of getting rid of him especially since a grateful King Robert would probably grant Tywin everything he wished) and he was outwitted by two boys (Robb military wise and Joffrey when he committed one of the biggest brainfarts in GOT series and he executed Eddard). 

b-    He’s not that good at reading people. He allowed his twins to get too close and he had no idea what was going between them.  He trusted Jamie and Joffrey too much, despite it was evident that they were far from fit for the task at hand and he absolutely hated Tyrion which is quite a shame since he was the only person who had brains in that family (apart from himself). 

c-    Tywin suffered from the same fits of rage Cersei had. I mean, ok the Reynes should have been punished fiercely. However what’s the point in drowning their mines which were brimming with gold? What’s the point of sending Gregor to crush Elia and her children turning the Martells into sworn enemies? Let the Baratheons handle that problem.  

I see Tywin as the combination of his three children

a-    He’s got Jamie’s looks. He’s handsome, tall and he’s got that same imposing presence
b-    He’s got Tyrion’s top quality administrative skills + that world class knack of making people do his bidding and feeling grateful for doing it. (The way he screwed Walder and Roose is brilliant, they basically took the heat of killing Robb without taking a single soldier/marriage in exchange. Riverrun was given to his sister and children who bullied her husband at every turn. Meanwhile Roose was given the Lord Paramount of the North role until he sorts the North out (then it would move to Tyrion-Sansa’s child))
c-    He’s got his daughter fits of rage. 

Tywin triumphed not because of his military skill but because he was able to negotiate a deal with the Tyrells. Once that was sealed, the rebellion was doomed. No one can take the combined Reach-Westerlands army down without the help of the flying reptiles backing them.

So to answer your question. I can see Tywin falling into that trap. Tywin was brilliant and his brilliance made the entire difference (+ Stannis magic) but being a military genius is not part of his skillset. 

 

I agreed with you that Tywin is no military genius, but he's not totally incompetent either. And I think you have to be totally incompetent to fall for a trap set in your land when you are expecting to fight a battle.

The fleet I explained. It was a sneak attack he couldn't have seen coming since he wasn't at war at the time; at least he didn't know he was. The Lannister Fleet burning was the first act of the Greyjoy Rebellion. It may have been wiser to guard you fleet better somehow, but it is definitely different from moving your army expecting battle.

Jaime I explained as well. Another possible reason for Tywin to give Jaime an army is that Tywin still saw Jaime as his heir and if Tywin was gone, Jaime should know what it is like to lead an army. Jaime beat Edmure at the Golden Tooth and at Riverrun, so he is a good commander. Tywin expected Robb to come down the Green Fork and face him, which was a mistake, but it was a reason for him to allow Jaime to handle the siege at Riverrun.

And how should Tywin have known Cersei couldn't handle Joffrey before Joffrey showed him with his bone-headed move that Cersei couldn't handle him? This may be the lack of skill at reading people you mention, but what does that have to do with Robb's trap? Tywin knows after the Battle of the Green Fork that he shouldn't underestimate Robb, so this lack of skill at reading people doesn't come in to play anymore. 

We see Tywin extensively scouting ahead before the Battle of the Green Fork, so he would know where Robb's army is. The battle will take place in the Westerlands, so in Tywin's land, land he ought to know better than Robb. Therefore, he would have to be an utter lackwit to allow himself to be trapped.

[David Selig]

Quote

Tywin triumphed not because of his military skill but because he was able to negotiate a deal with the Tyrells.

He didn't negotiate anything, this was all LF on Tyrion's behalf.