Varys and Littlefinger

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

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"Is this your own scheme," [Ned] gasped out at Varys, "or are you in league with Littlefinger?"
That seemed to amuse the eunuch. "I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor. Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Oh, I feed him choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks I am his..."

Just curious if anybody had any interesting thoughts on what choice tidbits Varys could be feeding Littlefinger, and why this arrangement is taking place at all.

It's a complicated set-up, so let me go through it slowly and hope that I'm being clear enough:

Varys wants Littlefinger to think that Varys is Littlefinger's man. This means that Varys wants to control Littlefinger. Why? What does Varys know about Littlefinger that makes him think this is necessary?

Littlefinger is accepting "choice whispers" from Varys. But what business does the Master of Coin have getting secret reports from Varys? What is the (implicit) ostensible purpose of this arrangement?

We know that Varys is underestimating Littlefinger, and that therefore Littlefinger understands that Varys's "choice whispers" are just a method of containing and controlling Littlefinger.

But Varys doesn't know that Littlefinger knows that, else he wouldn't be bothering.

Plainly, Varys thinks that the trick he is playing on Littlefinger is working - but why would he think that?

It goes back to this: what business does the Master of Coin have getting secret reports from the Master of Whisperers? In Varys's mind, what reason does Littlefinger have to want Varys to be his? What does Varys think Littlefinger is up to?

(And before anybody says "the gods alone know...", I think this is not the answer, but rather Varys's first inkling that he's not the one in control - in spy terms, he's not running Littlefinger, Littlefinger's running him.)

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Forgive me for repeating myself, but I'm going to try to state this another way, just to make sure I'm explaining it properly.

In Varys's mind, Littlefinger has need of a secret alliance with Varys. What reason would Varys have for thinking that?

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Let me try it a third way.

Varys is feeding "choice whispers" to Littlefinger. This is to manipulate Littlefinger.

Littlefinger knows this. He is accepting these "choice whispers" in order to manipulate Varys.

Varys probably doesn't know that Littlefinger is the one really pulling the strings here, otherwise he wouldn't be bothering with the arrangement. Or at least, he wouldn't keep getting blindsided by Littlefinger's victories.

But if Varys doesn't know Littlefinger's real agenda, what does he think it is?

To put it a fourth way: what choice whispers is Littlefinger feeding him?

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Apologies for being repetitive, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this "wilderness of mirrors" stuff, and I want to make sure I'm getting the point across

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Interesting question. 

Can you provide quotes that show that LF knows Varys is manipulating him; there might be some clues in the wording there. 

Also, the text which shows Varys is underestimating LF might be helpful too. 

I think with those quotes it would be easier to work out the answer to your question.

[Prince Brightfyre]

I was and still am under the impression that what Varys meant by that was that he keeps LF in the circle or "in the know" by delivering the occasional "big" (for lack of better words) development/"whispers". 

Varys does this periodically so that LF (as anyone IRL would) would feel as if he was doing this for him/as a favor/some kind of power complex. In LF's mind, why else would Varys be doing this, other than to cozy up/win points(hence all the political backstabbing in KL). 

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sufficient so that he thinks I am his 

I believe this boils down to Varys and LF both being immensely involved in behind the scenes politics/scheming, and Varys is purely keeping LF at bay with the "choice whispers", so that he can continue on with being Master Plan Man Varys (Aegon Brightfyre and friends). Everyone wins because LF thinks he pulls major weight with the master of whispers, and Varys gets to keep running the show in Westeros  

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Can you provide quotes that show that LF knows Varys is manipulating him; there might be some clues in the wording there. 

Also, the text which shows Varys is underestimating LF might be helpful too. 

I think with those quotes it would be easier to work out the answer to your question.

I don't know of any quotes. I'm inferring those two things by the fact that Littlefinger outfoxes Varys on numerous occasions. He kidnaps Sansa Stark, kills Joffrey, convinces Joffrey to kill Ned Stark.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, Prince Brightfyre said:

I was and still am under the impression that what Varys meant by that was that he keeps LF in the circle or "in the know" by delivering the occasional "big" (for lack of better words) development/"whispers". 

Varys does this periodically so that LF (as anyone IRL would) would feel as if he was doing this for him/as a favor/some kind of power complex. In LF's mind, why else would Varys be doing this, other than to cozy up/win points(hence all the political backstabbing in KL). 

I believe this boils down to Varys and LF both being immensely involved in behind the scenes politics/scheming, and Varys is purely keeping LF at bay with the "choice whispers", so that he can continue on with being Master Plan Man Varys (Aegon Brightfyre and friends). Everyone wins because LF thinks he pulls major weight with the master of whispers, and Varys gets to keep running the show in Westeros  

...yes, that is what is happening. Except why does the Master of Coin need to be so involved in politics? He's not the treasurer in a parliamentary democracy; his only political concern should be if anybody else is after his job. UNLESS he has bigger dreams. We know he does, and we know Varys doesn't know what they are, otherwise he'd guess at Littlefinger's plots. The question is, what does Varys think those dreams are?

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

50 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I don't know of any quotes. I'm inferring those two things by the fact that Littlefinger outfoxes Varys on numerous occasions. He kidnaps Sansa Stark, kills Joffrey, convinces Joffrey to kill Ned Stark.

 

 

 

Can you list the occasions Lf outfoxes varys. It might provide clues as to motives. 

I mean; I don't think that kidnapping Sansa is outfoxing Varys. Varys didn't have any designs concerning her, did he? 

Did Varys want Joffrey alive? I don't know that these things really count as outfoxing him, more just that LF did other stuff that Varys was not actively trying to prevent or have his own plans for.

Ned, of course, is different as Varys had wanted to send Ned to the wall, and LF schemed to have him executed instead. But again it isn't exactly some great blow to Varys, is it? I mean Ned living would not have served him. He just didn't have the same desire to see him die as LF did. So he devised a plan to send him to the wall. But Lf killing him didn't impact Varys grand plan any more than sending him to the wall would have. The fact is Robb, Edmure & Tywin had already called their banners prior to the execution. So the WOT5K was already set in motion.

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think we can conclude Varys has been outfoxed by LF in anything other than the minor detail of Ned getting executed.  It seems more like LF is just doing stuff which is of no consequence to Varys and his own agenda. 

And I don't see that, without it being inferred by the text we can conclude that Varys is underestimating LF. I mean from the quote you posted in the OP it seems Varys is well aware that LF has some agenda and is a very real player; one which he needs to keep his eye on and tries to keep in the dark about his own plans. 

And if we don't have any quotes which show us that LF is aware that Varys is manipulating him, how can we possibly know that he does? 

I don't think we can answer your question unless we stop making assumptions about the two men and their relationship and start from the standpoint that what is actually in the books is how we find the answers. So What DO we know about the two men and their relationship and opinions of one another? 

[Prince Brightfyre]

I believe that they are both simply playing the same game that is so common in Westeros and especially KL, which is that of secret plots,political scheming, and backroom deals, without being in the know of each other's immensly complex plots and lifetime pursuit for power/Iron Throne.

I feel like this is simply the way Varys plays his role in KL, regardless of who he's dealing with. He knows that almost everyone is working for somebody else, and hardly anyone is what they appear to be.

This all goes into Varys giving choice whispers to LF, IMO. It's all a part of the game to keep things moving and deflected away from him and what "really" matters, i.e. fAegon. I don't think he thinks LF is anything more than a scheming social climber that happens to be in a position of immense power, which traditionally seem to make up Kings Landing. I believe he may think those "dreams" would simply be all about money and getting richer, as he has a habit of doing the unthinkable in terms of the crown's finances. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

It's a faux alliance. Varys wants LF to think he can play Varys or that they can be friends, as much as LF is friends with anyone. In return it's likely that LF occasionally tells Varys something so that the faux alliance goes both ways.

But the best possible wrinkle from this would be LF knowing about Aegon. Once those dragons hatched, the whole Targaryen Restoration idea leveled up big time!

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

20 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Can you list the occasions Lf outfoxes varys. It might provide clues as to motives. 

I mean; I don't think that kidnapping Sansa is outfoxing Varys. Varys didn't have any designs concerning her, did he? 

Did Varys want Joffrey alive? I don't know that these things really count as outfoxing him, more just that LF did other stuff that Varys was not actively trying to prevent or have his own plans for.

Ned, of course, is different as Varys had wanted to send Ned to the wall, and LF schemed to have him executed instead. But again it isn't exactly some great blow to Varys, is it? I mean Ned living would not have served him. He just didn't have the same desire to see him die as LF did. So he devised a plan to send him to the wall. But Lf killing him didn't impact Varys grand plan any more than sending him to the wall would have. The fact is Robb, Edmure & Tywin had already called their banners prior to the execution. So the WOT5K was already set in motion.

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think we can conclude Varys has been outfoxed by LF in anything other than the minor detail of Ned getting executed.  It seems more like LF is just doing stuff which is of no consequence to Varys and his own agenda. 

And I don't see that without it being inferred by the text we can conclude that Varys is underestimating LF. I mean from the quote you posted in the OP it seems Varys is well aware that LF has some agenda and is a very real player; one which he needs to keep his eye on and try to keep in the dark about his own plans. 

And if we don't have any quotes which show us that LF is aware that Varys is manipulating him, how can we possibly know that he does? 

I don't think we can answer your question unless we stop making assumptions about the two men and their relationship and start from the standpoint that what is actually in the books is how we find the answers. So What DO we know about the two men and their relationship and opinions of oneanother? 

Something as important as Sansa Stark's disappearance shouldn't be happening without Varys knowing about it.

Joffrey's murder is a setback: Joffrey was valuable as an unpopular figurehead, and with Robert's bastards in place, and Tyrek Lannister stowed away, Varys can delegitimise him at any time.

And Varys went to great lengths to keep Ned alive. He wants to prevent war, remember? Ned's death guaranteed it.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

See your drawing conclusions from your own bias here. You think Sansa's disappearance is important, therefore you think Varys should have; therefore you think he must have been keeping tabs on her.Been aware of LF's plans and that if he had worked them out he would have prevented Sansa falling into his hands. 

But this is not evident from the books. Varys shows no interest in Sansa at all. For all we know he was fully aware that Dontos was working for LF and had left a note under Sansa's pillow. Indeed it seems unlikely that something like this would have escaped his little birds notice. Varys has no use for Sansa, he does not need a bride for fAegon (besides which she is already married and he does have a use for her actual husband meaning he has no intention of killing Tyrion in order to make her marriageable again.) he & Illyrio have at this point almost certainly already decided that Dany should be his bride. She has hatched dragons and they have sent Barristan out to bring her back to Pentos.  Varys has no need of her, so why would he be concerned with keeping her out of LF's clutches?

Joffrey/tommen/Myrcella what does it matter who is sitting the IT. Varys has three "Baratheon" seat warmers he doesn't seem overly fussed which one keeps the throne warm for fAegon. 

Yes, it did. But as I said Robb, Edmure &  Tywin had all already called their banners. And whilst I agree LF "won" that bout with Varys it was hardly a major blow to Varys's plans, which had already been pushed into fast forward by the fact war was already about to break out. Ned going to the wall might have got Robb to stand down. Might have. But Tywin wanted a war, and Edmure was not going to sit in his castle whilst Tywin continued to harry his lands. And would Robb & Catelyn really stand down whilst her brother's lands are decimated and his father has been falsely accused of treason and condemned to the wall?  Bearing in mind that Catelyn fully believes Tywin's son attempted to assassinate Bran too. 

Ned's death is hardly conclusive proof that LF has outfoxed Varys; repeatedly thwarting his plans and it certainly does not show that LF knows Varys was manipulating him, or that Varys underestimates LF. 

If you want to understand their relationship you have to stop making baseless assumptions about them. And look to the actual text. What do we know about their opinions of one another? 

 

[PrettyPig]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Except why does the Master of Coin need to be so involved in politics? He's not the treasurer in a parliamentary democracy; his only political concern should be if anybody else is after his job. UNLESS he has bigger dreams. We know he does, and we know Varys doesn't know what they are, otherwise he'd guess at Littlefinger's plots. The question is, what does Varys think those dreams are?

Some time ago I posted a theory that I'll look for after my coffee kicks in about the larger motivations of the Baelish/Varys/Illyrio crew, and it basically boiled down to "follow the money"....that is, the money of the Iron Bank and financial control of Westeros.

If you look hard at the money trail, it could be shown that Littlefinger is working to secure debt that is currently held by the IB, while Illyrio - with help of Varys - is working to collapse the IB via defaults on debt and take over as Prime Moneylender, perhaps even shifting the center of finance from Braavos to Pentos.    Or something like that, I can't remember right now.     Getting fAegon on the throne plays into this while also accomplishing *whatever* with regard to Targ restoration, so two ravens with one stone there.

Anyway, Littlefinger has flat-out said that he often operates in ways contradictory to his self-interest to achieve those long goals, and then Varys is Varys, so we see the big circle jerk of manipulation and have no good idea of who is pulling who's strings and what these guys actually know about the other's plans, but IMO we'll see it play out as sort of a Medici Bank kind of thing.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Didn't the Medici Bank collapse though, when it couldn't recoup loans from various kings?

That's one thing that's strange about the world of ASOIAF: the Iron Bank is supposedly more powerful than anything else. This doesn't fit in with the quasi-medieval setting. It sounds like GRRM's modern viewpoint coming through: the government being beholden to the big banks. It's all a bit Bernie Sanders.

By the way pig, that was apparently your 666th post. Hail Satan!

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

4 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

[snip]

It seems like we have different ideas about what's plausible.

Why would Varys knowingly let Littlefinger kidnap Sansa, kill the king, etc? He would be letting a very dangerous enemy achieve a victory. Unless he's playing a long-game, he ought to be trying to thwart Littlefinger at every turn.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Ask yourself what varys's likely thoughts are as to why LF wanted Sansa? He likely thinks LF wants Sansa sexually. He is likely aware of his history with Cat & was present I believe both when LF boasts at having taken Cat's maidenhead during a small council meeting and when he casually recommends himself as a husband for Sansa. And she is out of the game in terms of marriage so he likely isn't suspecting LF is planning on some elaborate power grab in the vale and north.  From Varys POV it just looks like LF is acting out of lust. 

As to Joffrey. LF appears to be acting out of political gain via building ties to the Tyrells. Who do not want their daughter to marry a sadist. Varys won't like LF building alliances with powerful houses but seeing as he doesn't know LF's end game and foiling the Joffrey plot costs him the stability which the Tyrells bring to KL And he needs to slow down the Cersei trainwreck as he wants to give fAegon time to get to Dany and marry her at this point. He doesn't really have enough reason to foil LF in this plan. As he needs that temporary stability of the Tyrells being in KL propping up the Baratheon throne. 

Unless you know what is going on in LF's head, it just looks as though LF is seeking favour with the Tyrells and taking advantage of the opportunity to get his hands on his lust object. 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

25 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Unless he's playing a long-game, he ought to be trying to thwart Littlefinger at every turn.

 

Yes, Varys is and has been for a very long time playing a long game. His end goal of installing fAegon on the IT is his primary objective. Why ought he be trying to thwart LF at every turn?  LF's actions have not as of yet seemed to be in danger of disrupting Vary's end game. LF is someone whom he keeps his eye on. But he isn't going to risk endangering his long term plan with fAegon to thwart plans of LF's which don't seem to endanger his goals and which have seemingly obvious and insignificant motivations.

[Cridefea]

9 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Varys is feeding "choice whispers" to Littlefinger. This is to manipulate Littlefinger.

Littlefinger knows this. He is accepting these "choice whispers" in order to manipulate Varys.

Varys probably doesn't know that Littlefinger is the one really pulling the strings here, otherwise he wouldn't be bothering with the arrangement. Or at least, he wouldn't keep getting blindsided by Littlefinger's victories.

I think Varys wants that LF believes he is the one pulling the strings....

Littlefinger to Cat in Got 

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I hold the man’s balls in the palm of my hand ... or would, if he were a man, or had any balls. 

It is a matter of goals: LF's goal is clearer than Varys' one. So, in theory, Varys can decide to manipulate LF because he knows what LF wants. But not the other way around. 

and what happened that Varys didn't want? Sansa's kidnapping? Joffrey's death? For what we know, it could be that everything went as planned. Remember what Varys said about power 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

He would be letting a very dangerous enemy achieve a victory.

A victory? (and I don't know if Varys sees LF as his enemy, I think he believe him a dangerous man.) Varys sets things up so that they go as he wishes. While LF plot and creates alliances and enmities, Varys weaves the web so that the insects go inside. They are two different way of acting. 

10 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

To put it a fourth way: what choice whispers is Littlefinger feeding him?

that is an interesting question, I have to re-read some parts, because, since I'm re-watching got, I'm afraid I can mix things from the show. And who is the first most devious man in the seven kingdom? Joffrey?

 

[Praetor Xyn]

As an aside from the OP quote, is the implication of Littlefinger being the second most devious that Varys is the first? If not then who? Tywin is definitely pretty Machiavellian, but I don't think he's in the same league as Varys, Littlefinger, and Doran Martell.

[Prof. Cecily]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Didn't the Medici Bank collapse though, when it couldn't recoup loans from various kings?

That's one thing that's strange about the world of ASOIAF: the Iron Bank is supposedly more powerful than anything else. This doesn't fit in with the quasi-medieval setting. It sounds like GRRM's modern viewpoint coming through: the government being beholden to the big banks. It's all a bit Bernie Sanders.

By the way pig, that was apparently your 666th post. Hail Satan!

The Medicis were succeeded by the Fugger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fugger anad I see them as a closer parallel to the iron Bank than the Medicis.

[PrettyPig]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Didn't the Medici Bank collapse though, when it couldn't recoup loans from various kings?

Yep, and that was where I was going with the original theory, iirc - we see a bit of trouble in Westeros what with the IB calling the debts of the crown, and simultaneously teaming up with Stannis (who will have no chance in hell of honoring his side of the bargain), but who knows if the lack of repayment would cause any real damage to the IB. 

Littlefinger has been busy with all his moneylaundering & investment schemes that he began under Jon Arryn, and is now buying up debt in the Vale.    I think he has a vested interest in the IB remaining solvent so he can continue along that path and make tons of quiet money through all the political dealings.      Illyrio is different - he's already rich as hell, and for some mysterious reason he has his eye on becoming Master of Coin when fAegon takes over.  Why?    Well, Braavos has had a pretty strong chokehold on the wealth-related goings-on of Pentos for a long time, and Pentos would benefit immensely should the IB fail due to insolvency - Pentos, with the power of one of its wealthiest merchants who also now controls the purse strings of the Crown, suddenly becomes the new financial capital of the Free Cities with enough clout to lift pesky restrictions like, say, the kibbosh on their slave trade.     There's a lot of money at stake here.   And really, with Varys and Illyrio backing BOTH fAegon AND Dany, I guess they figure they have no losing horse w/r/t the end goal.

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

It sounds like GRRM's modern viewpoint coming through: the government being beholden to the big banks. It's all a bit Bernie Sanders.

GRRM's modern viewpoint shines through in a lot of places.   I will remain convinced until I die that he modeled a lot of the political 'game of thrones' plots (and even characters) after the rise of the neocons in the Clinton era.   Tywin Lannister is and will always be Dick Cheney in my mind.

4 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

By the way pig, that was apparently your 666th post. Hail Satan!

I know, right?   And it was all about Big Bank, Big Money, and Greed, which made it all the more apt!

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

I don't think Varys necessarily had to have any suspicions about LF. Here's a revealing quote about Varys:

"He serves me well."

"Or so he'd have you believe. You think you're the only one he whispers secrets to? He gives each of us just enough to convince us that we'd be helpless without him. He played the same game with me, when I first wed Robert. For years, I was convinced I had no truer friend at court, but now . . ."

So Varys even manipulated young Cersei. It seems to just be his standard procedure. Someone new shows up at court, he befriends them with the one currency he has: whispers.