Is Aegon VI fake?

[cybroleach]

People have long suspected that Aegon/"Aegon" would pop up eventually, given that Martin only confirmed that Rhaenys was definitely killed. As soon as his plot cropped up, all I thought of was Perkin Warbeck.

I know right, this Aegon basically screams who he is from our 'War of the Roses' chart.

[FanTasy]

I agree. Plus, Illyrio giving Dany the three dragon eggs, and as far we know, not giving one of them to Aegon, heavily suggests that he knew she was the real Targ and giving them to Aegon wouldn't make much of a difference either way.

Yep. I always thought Illyrio was convinced that his gift of the three eggs was a valuable gift, but nothing more as fossils. If he believed that they could turn into live dragons I think he would have saved them for Aegon/FAegon.

[Alia of the knife]

Lol, I always imagined him like this, with blue hair: http://www.gutenberg...ages/c06-48.jpg

Thats perfect!

(And, I'm not surprised Martin would channel Mark Twain).

[LadyoftheNorth72]

As far as V&I's initial plans, they may have initially involved Viserys in some way, until they discovered that he was damaged goods. By the time they married Dany off to Drogo, it is pretty clear that they do not expect either one to survive their time with the Dothraki (Illyrio actually says as much to Tyrion). I think they genuinely want Dany for Aegon now that she had hatched the dragons.

This may be one clue that Aegon is real. If V&I are wanting the dragons on his side, they would definitely be more comfortable with it if Aegon is real. Obviously as said before, being a Targ descendant does not guarantee that you can/will be able to tame and ride a dragon, but it apparently increases your chances exponentially.

Regarding the fact that GRRM did not "introduce" Aegon earlier ... he may have taken it for granted that the readers all realized he was coming at some point. As has been pointed out repeatedly, it was kind of an obvious possibility, since Aegon was a baby when killed, done in by someone that most people would not call perceptive (Gregor), and given the penchant for reappearing that dead characters have.

[RuneWood Motte]

Yep. I always thought Illyrio was convinced that his gift of the three eggs was a valuable gift, but nothing more as fossils. If he believed that they could turn into live dragons I think he would have saved them for Aegon/FAegon.

Exactly. Dragons haven't been around for decades and the other Targaryens before the Rebellion couldn't hatch any. Why would he think Dany could? I reckon the gift was more to show her his good will so that if fortunate things did happen for her, she'd think him an ally, and he could manipulate her for his own means. However, he probably never thought to factor "hatching dragons" under the fortunate things category...

Otherwise he definitely would have saved them for his precious YG/"Aegon".

Even if we say he wouldn't have because, as a Blackfyre (possibly), Aegon wouldn't have been able to hatch them, I still don't think Illyrio would've wanted Dany to have them. This lessens Aegon's chances to claim the throne: "people follow power".

This may be one clue that Aegon is real. If V&I are wanting the dragons on his side, they would definitely be more comfortable with it if Aegon is real. Obviously as said before, being a Targ descendant does not guarantee that you can/will be able to tame and ride a dragon, but it apparently increases your chances exponentially.

I'd have to respectfully disagree. This exact point is one of the reasons I think YG is not Aegon, son of Rhaegar. They want the dragons now that their hatched because it will, in their eyes, support YG's dubious claim to the Iron throne. As I said, who's going to argue with dragons?

[Adam West]

I was a total supporter of the "Aegon is legit" argument, until I read "The Mystery Knight". It's a really great story and it'll will help you understand the possibility of a Blackfyre claimant. However, it still does not give MUCH credence to the possibility of him being fake.

My strongest reason is:

Varys' last words with Kevan Lannister. If Varys is a supporter of a Blackfyre resurrection, he would of clearly indicated whether Aegon is a red dragon, or black dragon in that conversation. GRRM has made this distinction quite clear in the D&E stories. So if you haven't read them, then you really can not use any other reason since those references were quite deliberate. Sure, Varys may of been vague so that he doesn't risk revealing Aegons legitimacy through his Little Birds, but he just KILLED the kings hand in front of them. So I doubt he has any trust issues within his group of spies.

[ARYa_Nym]

Quentyn, Victarion, and Euron want dragons as well.

Quentyn thought that his lineage was enough.

"I have Targaryen blood in me, you know that. I can trace my lineage back-"

I don't think that he was going to be successful with Viserion. The first time he tried Viserion lost interest. The second time Viserion hissed at him from the front while Rhaegal burned him from behind.

“Viserion.” “The dragon knew his name. His head turned, and his gaze lingered on the Dornish prince for three long heartbeats. “Down,” Quentyn said….Viserion lost interest. The dragon turned back toward the Windblown and lurched toward the door.”“The pale head rose. The great gold eyes narrowed. Wisps of smoke spiraled upward from the dragon’s nostrils…Down, down, down.” He brought the whip around and laid a lash across the dragon’s face. Viserion hissed. And then a hot wind buffeted him and he heard the sound of leathern wings and the air was full of ash and cinders and a monstrous roar went echoing off the scorched and blackened bricks. ”

Ilyrio told Tyrion when he asked why the GC joined their cause:

"Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon.When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre."

If Aegon is a Blackfyre he can trace his lineage back to Daemon who lived about a 100 years before so like Quentyn he could try to use his lineage as a reason to get a dragon. Dragons choose their riders though. One of the other two may or may not choose him.

[Adam West]

I'd have to respectfully disagree. This exact point is one of the reasons I think YG is not Aegon, son of Rhaegar. They want the dragons now that their hatched because it will, in their eyes, support YG's dubious claim to the Iron throne. As I said, who's going to argue with dragons?

I don't think they so much want the Dragons to support Aegons Claim. It's just a simple strategy: Dragons = Power and Conquest. It's the same reason why Victarion is looking for Dany.

[RuneWood Motte]

Sure, Varys may of been vague so that he doesn't risk revealing Aegons legitimacy through his Little Birds, but if he just KILLED the kings hand in front of them. So I doubt he has any trust issues within his group of spies.

I think it was more having the last say for Varys. He's been plotting this scheme the whole time under the Lannister's noses. It's not about his little 'birds' at all, but rather utterly defeating an enemy. If you recall from Illyrio's words about Varys in ADwD, Varys isn't exactly the gracious nice man he says he is to Ned. He's in it to win it, and at this moment, he get's to reveal this secret that undermines everything the Lannister's have been doing for the past 2-3 years. So what if Aegon isn't really Rhaegar's son? Kevan doesn't know that, and he'll die thinking that Tommen will probably be joining him shortly because of this Aegon. It's the ultimate defeat, and I think Varys is capable of it.

I don't think they so much want the Dragons to support Aegons Claim. It's just a simple strategy: Dragons = Power and Conquest. It's the same reason why Victarion is looking for Dany.

I agree very much with the Dragons= Power and Conquest. However, I also think that if Aegon arrives in Westeros with dragons, not only will no one likely fight him from fear of them, but it will also strengthen his claim as Rhaegar's son, whom everyone has thought dead for the last seventeen-odd years. Just like us on the boards, the people of Westeros would probably be sceptical. If he has dragons, they'll be far less likely in voicing those opinions as they'll think him a true Targaryen.

[Sevumar]

Varys' last words with Kevan Lannister. If Varys is a supporter of a Blackfyre resurrection, he would of clearly indicated whether Aegon is a red dragon, or black dragon in that conversation. GRRM has made this distinction quite clear in the D&E stories.

While I think the D&E stories are great background material and that the Blackfyre connections may show themselves in the main story, I'm not sure that Varys would've brought this up with Kevan Lannister. Kevan's lifetime was largely lived after the matter of allegiance to red or black dragon mattered in Westerosi politics.

[Lummel]

...

Varys' last words with Kevan Lannister. If Varys is a supporter of a Blackfyre resurrection, he would of clearly indicated whether Aegon is a red dragon, or black dragon in that conversation. GRRM has made this distinction quite clear in the D&E stories. So if you haven't read them, then you really can not use any other reason since those references were quite deliberate. Sure, Varys may of been vague so that he doesn't risk revealing Aegons legitimacy through his Little Birds, but if he just KILLED the kings hand in front of them. So I doubt he has any trust issues within his group of spies.

I think your mention of the Dunk and Egg stories is a good observation. The D&E and ASOIAF storylines are becoming / are interwoven. The more the Blackfyres are developed (in two out of three stories so far) the more I think they will reappear in ASOIAF.

My understanding of the speech in Kevan's presence is different. The Little Birds are important, maybe the most important aspect of that scene is that they are present to witness the death of Kevan and listen to that speech. It's absolutely clear that there is no need otherwise for them to be there or to participate in Kevan's murder (and if Varys wanted to give the impression of a frenzied attack by a group of people he could have faked that).

What we don't know is how the little birds are kept in line and motivated to work for Varys - these are children who've had their tongues removed as part of their training and then taken to a foreign country - they need some kind of faith in a higher ideal or purpose to put up with such an odd existence, for me that is involvement in a great crusade and the most noble cause of their times - the restoration of the rightful and true king of Westeros.

[KingsGoldenHand]

I was a total supporter of the "Aegon is legit" argument, until I read "The Mystery Knight". It's a really great story and it'll will help you understand the possibility of a Blackfyre claimant. However, it still does not give MUCH credence to the possibility of him being fake.

My strongest reason is:

Varys' last words with Kevan Lannister. If Varys is a supporter of a Blackfyre resurrection, he would of clearly indicated whether Aegon is a red dragon, or black dragon in that conversation. GRRM has made this distinction quite clear in the D&E stories. So if you haven't read them, then you really can not use any other reason since those references were quite deliberate. Sure, Varys may of been vague so that he doesn't risk revealing Aegons legitimacy through his Little Birds, but if he just KILLED the kings hand in front of them. So I doubt he has any trust issues within his group of spies.

Not sure if it means anything, but Doran was holding a black dragon from his cyrvasse set when he told Arianne about Fire & Blood in AFFC. . Maybe he realizes that she's the best chance for them to get on the Iron Throne, made a deal with Varys to go with the Blackfyre line and sent Quentyn on a suicide mission. The kid sure seemed undermanned and utterly incapable of what was asked, and Doran, not one to rush anything to say the least, must have known that.

[Adam West]

I think it was more having the last say for Varys. He's been plotting this scheme the whole time under the Lannister's noses. It's not about his little 'birds' at all, but rather utterly defeating an enemy. If you recall from Illyrio's words about Varys in ADwD, Varys isn't exactly the gracious nice man he says he is to Ned. He's in it to win it, and at this moment, he get's to reveal this secret that undermines everything the Lannister's have been doing for the past 2-3 years. So what if Aegon isn't really Rhaegar's son? Kevan doesn't know that, and he'll die thinking that Tommen will probably be joining him shortly because of this Aegon. It's the ultimate defeat, and I think Varys is capable of it.

I agree very much with the Dragons= Power and Conquest. However, I also think that if Aegon arrives in Westeros with dragons, not only will no one likely fight him from fear of them, but it will also strengthen his claim as Rhaegar's son, whom everyone has thought dead for the last seventeen-odd years. Just like us on the boards, the people of Westeros would probably be sceptical. If he has dragons, they'll be far less likely in voicing those opinions as they'll think him a true Targaryen.

What better way to stick it to Kevan than saying "Aegon is the greatest and he'll conquer Westoros and then destroy your house. Oh, BTW, he's not actually a Targ. He's a Blackfyre and he'll rise to take the Iron throne in the same style that Robert Baratheon did." - To me, that would seem like an ultimate revenge. It doesn't make sense that he wouldn't be forthcoming with the details.

In reference to the second paragraph, when Aegon the unworthy gave the Targaryen Valyrian steel heirloom "Blackfyre" To Daemon Waters, after legitimizing him, it didn't make everyone think of him as the true Targ heir. So the Dragons would mean nothing but power. If Victarion came into possession of a dragon and called himself a Targ, that wouldn't mean anything.

[Adam West]

I think your mention of the Dunk and Egg stories is a good observation. The D&E and ASOIAF storylines are becoming / are interwoven. The more the Blackfyres are developed (in two out of three stories so far) the more I think they will reappear in ASOIAF.

My understanding of the speech in Kevan's presence is different. The Little Birds are important, maybe the most important aspect of that scene is that they are present to witness the death of Kevan and listen to that speech. It's absolutely clear that there is no need otherwise for them to be there or to participate in Kevan's murder (and if Varys wanted to give the impression of a frenzied attack by a group of people he could have faked that).

What we don't know is how the little birds are kept in line and motivated to work for Varys - these are children who've had their tongues removed as part of their training and then taken to a foreign country - they need some kind of faith in a higher ideal or purpose to put up with such an odd existence, for me that is involvement in a great crusade and the most noble cause of their times - the restoration of the rightful and true king of Westeros.

That makes a lot of sense. Giving them something to believe in would certainly help in the long run.

Not sure if it means anything, but Doran was holding a black dragon from his cyrvasse set when he told Arianne about Fire & Blood in AFFC. . Maybe he realizes that she's the best chance for them to get on the Iron Throne, made a deal with Varys to go with the Blackfyre line and sent Quentyn on a suicide mission. The kid sure seemed undermanned and utterly incapable of what was asked, and Doran, not one to rush anything to say the least, must have known that.

I don't think Doran Martell would be too happy about someone pretending to be his Dead Nephew lol. He loved his sister and I'm pretty sure he'd stay neutral in this type of situation. After all, that is what he's well known for,

[Adam West]

Taken from the ASOIAF WIKI:

Daemon claimed the Iron Throne as Aegon IV's true heir, and led a rebellion against his half-brother, Daeron II. Daemon attracted many followers with his martial skill and his possession of Blackfyre. He was called the King Who Bore the Sword. Many who disliked the Dornish influence and academic nature of Daeron's court preferred Daemon's rugged charisma and apathy toward learning and religion. He took the name of Blackfyre for his house and displayed the inverted Targaryen arms, a black dragon on red.

I guess we'll find out in the next book as to which Banner Aegon hangs :)

[Sevumar]

What better way to stick it to Kevan than saying "Aegon is the greatest and he'll conquer Westoros and then destroy your house. Oh, BTW, he's not actually a Targ. He's a Blackfyre and he'll rise to take the Iron throne in the same style that Robert Baratheon did." - To me, that would seem like an ultimate revenge. It doesn't make sense that he wouldn't be forthcoming with the details.

I don't think it's necessary to reveal the (possible) Blackfyre nature of their alignment/Aegon's origin. Varys's whole speech is about who deserves kingship, and how they're prepared to rule, not what his pedigree is. Since Kevan is the regent for Tommen, that message really strikes home and there's no reason to complicate it unnecessarily with the mention of Blackfyres.

[LadyoftheNorth72]

I cannot help but wonder how much it will even matter, ultimately, who YG "really" is. No matter what proof is offered, those who want to believe in him will believe, and those who do not will not. I think his success or failure will depend entirely on his ability (or lack of it) to put himself on the Iron Throne. After all, people knew that Robert was not the "rightful" king, but followed him in his rebellion, set him up as king, and the realm accepted him anyway. Even if some astonishing proof is trotted out that YG is the son of a Dornish farmer, he will have his adherents, and if they can provide proof that he is indeed Aegon VI, he will have his detractors.

Going back to the War of the Roses comparison, there were plenty of people who continued to insist (often to their own deaths) that Henry VII had no right to the throne, and some of these objections carried into his son's reign due to their (relatively common) Tudor blood. Mary and Elizabeth spent their entire reigns having to listen to claims that they had no right to the throne. Yet crowned they all were, and reign they did until their deaths.

If YG can, by military force, put himself on the throne, then he will likely spend the rest of his life also having to listen to complaints about his right to be there, and will likely have to deal with periodic rebellions from those who think their claim is better than his (or, like the Ironborn during Robert's reign, just want to rule themselves independently). But if he wins, he wins. As the sort of omniscient readers we may know that he has won despite NOT being Aegon, but that will amount to squat in Westeros if he wins.

[ARYa_Nym]

I think it will matter to Dany who has a dragon. Her house has fought the Blackfyres continuously now. This would be a way to end the problem once and for good. Kind of like how the Starks should have gotten rid of the Boltons without the relation.

It will also matter to Jon Connington and Dorne. This is Jon's last chance not to fail Rhaegar. He will realize that Rhaegar's son is really dead and that this would be a disgrace to the real Aegon's memory. It's not just about power for him. The same with Dorne.

If say Victarion gets control over another one of her dragons he will want to rule Westeros through Dany. Aegon will need to go. Barriston killed the last Blackfyre of the male line so it should matter to him. Bloodraven is still alive so it should matter to him but it remains to be seen if he will interfere with Dany like he did with Jon.

[RuneWood Motte]

I don't think it's necessary to reveal the (possible) Blackfyre nature of their alignment/Aegon's origin. Varys's whole speech is about who deserves kingship, and how they're prepared to rule, not what his pedigree is. Since Kevan is the regent for Tommen, that message really strikes home and there's no reason to complicate it unnecessarily with the mention of Blackfyres.

Perfectly true. Kevan doesn't care whether this Aegon is a Targaryen or a Blackfyre; the only thing he cares about is that he is not Tommen, and that Tommen will probably now die. Nothing more really needs to be said, so why go into the specifics?

.

It will also matter to Jon Connington and Dorne. This is Jon's last chance not to fail Rhaegar. He will realize that Rhaegar's son is really dead and that this would be a disgrace to the real Aegon's memory. It's not just about power for him. The same with Dorne.

The rest of Westeros may go along with it even if YG is revealed not be Aegon, but I don't think Dorne will just stand by and let some random boy claim to be their King's nephew and their beloved Elia's long-lost son if they know it to be a lie. And yes, Jon Connington would definitely not be pleased, for all the reasons you said. However, I don't think he would kill YG, as others have said he might.

If say Victarion gets control over another one of her dragons he will want to rule Westeros through Dany. Aegon will need to go. Barriston killed the last Blackfyre of the male line so it should matter to him. Bloodraven is still alive so it should matter to him but it remains to be seen if he will interfere with Dany like he did with Jon.

I really don't see Victarion getting one of the Dany's dragons, but if he did, then yes, Aegon would have to be killed. And maybe I'm forgetting, but what are you referring to when you say Bloodraven interfered with Jon?

Adam West, I think there's a great difference between a sword heirloom and dragons. Swords were regularly passed down in many Westerosi families (Ice=Starks, Longclaw=Mormonts, etc.). So getting a family sword of course would not make people believe that a legitimized bastard (notice that people also already knew he was a bastard, not a trueborn son) was the real heir. However, if an unknown boy arrives with dragons, only linked with the Targaryen House as opposed to every high born House, then yes, I think they'd think he was the absolute real deal.

[ARYa_Nym]

The rest of Westeros may go along with it even if YG is revealed not be Aegon, but I don't think Dorne will just stand by and let some random boy claim to be their King's nephew and their beloved Elia's long-lost son if they know it to be a lie. And yes, Jon Connington would definitely not be pleased, for all the reasons you said. However, I don't think he would kill YG, as others have said he might.

I really don't see Victarion getting one of the Dany's dragons, but if he did, then yes, Aegon would have to be killed. And maybe I'm forgetting, but what are you referring to when you say Bloodraven interfered with Jon?

I'm pretty sure that he's been warging Mormont's raven. During the LC elections he showed up at the right time:

"The raven landed on the table neared Jon. "Snow,"...It walked to the end of the table, spread its wings again and flew to Jon's shoulder. "Ser Piggy thinks we're all fools, brothers," "He's taught the bird this little trick. They all say snow, go up to the rookery and hear for yourselves. Mormont's bird had more words than that." The raven cocked its head and looked at Jon. "Corn?" it said hopefully..."Kettle?"

This theory has less support but it's my hunch that he's also been warging Rhaenys' kitten Balerion to spy on KL. It would also explain why that cat doesn't like Lannisters.

As for Connington, I think that it might not be a rational thing. It would be like Loras when he went into that fit of rage. Connington already has a certain death sentence so I could see him easily snapping and becoming unstable and dangerous to those around him.

I think Victarion will but I'm not sure if he will still be alive by the time Dany has to slay the lie.