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About lancerman

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  1. The Mad King has gone too far this time and the Lords of the realm must band together to stop him from wreaking havoc
  2. Texas is kind of a must win state for Biden. If Sanders takes California and Texas he is dead
  3. If the delegate leader and the popular vote leader are different you actually have a clear case for contested convention. That is very different from a scenario where someone is the clear leader going in but the party is trying to outmath them with super delegates and other candidates pledged delegates. In that scenario it's the purpose of a contested convention. In the other it's basically just the party not liking who got the most support and finding a reason to take it away. And no if Sanders has the popular vote and not the delegates, he ran a campaign with the metric being delegates. His supporters would have to move on. Honestly Sanders probably has a better shot at beating Trump because his coalition is made up of people who usually don't turn out and are less likely to turn out if he's not the nom. It's the magical youth vote that Democrats always chase. But that's besides the point. The best case scenario for the Democrats is that somebody gets a clear victory in delegates and popular votes going into the primary and they walk out with the nom. Maybe even saying the other person is VP to consolidate support
  4. It has to be a compelling argument for the voters or else it's an auto Trump win. And make no mistake a very small percentage of Sanders supporters didn't back Hillary Clinton in 2016. Less defected from her than Hillary supporters that defected from Obama. They need Sanders supporters to vote for them or they lose. If they really do that, they will hand the election to Trump. If Biden or anybody else wants the nom, come in with more votes and delegates than Sanders. If you can't, if you walk out with the nom you will be the second person to lose to Trump
  5. If Biden + Bloomberg > Warren + Sanders BUT Sanders has the lead, then Trump wins. And no it's not a compelling argument that the person with the plurality should lose the nom. It will destroy the Democratic party.
  6. There’s not enough data to credibly to model all that’s happened in 3 days. It could be anything from minimal change to game changing
  7. I am. People have things to do. I am booked all day tomorrow. I would not be voting if I couldn’t vote early. Blame people like Buttigieg and Klobuchar who were callous and waited last minute
  8. Yes and many people already voted early on them
  9. I don’t think either will unite the Party. I’ve also heard the song about Republicans defecting. Never happens. They’ll slam Biden on the Ukraine and shit and that will be their excuse
  10. Those taxpayers will still get their 1000 a month so they can complain but everyone’s going to say “why are you taking it then”
  11. Apparently it's in Florida now too, so it's basically all over the country
  12. Trump could just fear monger and say he's banning all foreigners from coming in and then the Democrats would be stuck arguing against it
  13. Exactly. Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party.
  14. Companies would complain and not everyone would get it. It's a safety net for your worst case situation and a supplement for everyone else. It woud be a game changer for the homeless population, Pretty much everyone in the middle class wouldn't be living paycheck to paycheck and it would stimulate the economy. And rich people would get it so they couldn't complain about it being welfare. UBI is better because it's universal and it doesn't require anything. Nobody is going to realistically want to live off that alone if they can help it. And it allows everyone else to build a safety net for themselves in case of an emergency.
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