Nevets

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story. It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. She will have to make do with her already known connection to Sweetrobin, combined with her newly acquired talents. I see no indication that GRRM is setting up anything else unless it is to fall under LF's thrall. And that doesn't require a newfound heir either. Harry has no heir not because GRRM is hiding something, but because it really doesn't matter for the story.

My guess is that Harry won't die, if at all, until he is married, and at least has a child on the way. Then the child would be heir. If he dies childless, it probably means Sweetrobin is safe. Possibly LF could work something out with his bastard's mother and arrange for legitimation, under LF's control of course. That Harry currently has no heir suggests that it won't matter as far as the story is concerned. Sorry to go meta, but sometimes you have to.

I suspect it is provable that Ashara is not Jon's mother. For instance if she were already pregnant when Jon was conceived she couldn't be his mother. If it could be proven that she can't be Jon's mother, it raises questions and what Ned is hiding. Better to say nothing and give potential inquirers nothing to work with.

Jaqen couldn't split at any time; he was manacled in a wagon. If he could free himself, he would have done so when the barn caught fire. He has no reason to expect anyone to come by, or be willing or able to help if they do. Ergo, he's stuck. I doubt that he knew who Arya was, or was interested in her if he did know. He probably learned at Harrenhal that the Lannisters were searching for Arya Stark, daughter of Ned. Once he knows that, the pieces fall into place. I doubt he thought she would make a good acolyte. She's so unsuitable I have to wonder why they are keeping her around. I think it's because as a scion of a great house, she is in a good position to help them with info, shelter, money, cover-ups, etc. Essentially they're manipulating her into helping them, probably in exchange for being able to leave without consequence.

I am firmly convinced that Jaqen was in the black cells because GRRM put him there to advance Arya's story, and didn't give the whys and wherefores a second thought. Even from a story point of view I don't think it matters. Ned Stark isn't that difficult to kill. He meets all types, and has no real security to speak of. Also, I can't think of anyone who would want him dead badly enough to pay the enormous price for it. Cersei and Littlefinger had some interest in his death, but had their own plans In place. He wasn't there to join the Nights Watch. The NW is the easiest out fit ever to infiltrate. They take anyone - literally. If you have a penis and can walk, they'll take you. If not, they may take you anyway. It's not like they do background checks. If secret agent guy can't pretend to be a petty criminal, a down-and-outer, or someone escaping debts or a bad marriage, then he's not worth his paycheck. I think he is on the cells because he got caught doing something ir being someplace he shouldn't have been. It happens, even to the best. And from what I've seen in Arya's story, I am beginning to think their reputation is a bit inflated. I think after he left Harrenhal, he returned to Braavos to report and get a new assignment, which happens to be at the Citadel.

Tyrion is, I believe, in a locale where valyrian is used, so there is that connection. I think "the valonqar" could be a nickname, nom de guerre, or title that a character becomes known by. Tyrion fits the bill nicely for that. ( For the record, I've always suspected Tyrion for it.

Sorry, not really buying it. As you point out, we fave a plethora of secret identities, mysterious disappearances and the like. There are at least four characters widely believed by readers to be hiding under fake identities: Sandor Clegane, Gregor Clegane, Sarella Sand, and Jaqen H'ghar, and Septa Lemore practically invites speculation. And if Lem Lemoncloak or Elder Brother turno out to be figures from the past, it won't be that much of a surprise. Ashara Dayne's death screams "fake", Tysha's fate is unknown, and Benjen Stark and Tyrek Lannister are both possibly still alive. I have yet to see a convincing case for a fake Daenerys. She is the younger child and a girl, so is surplus. If she dies or is never born it changes nothing. I fact it's one less problem to deal with. Also, having three dragons as companions is as clear as indication of her being Targaryen as you can get. And being Aerys's daughter means she has to fear inheriting his madness, a big part of her story. Ashara taking a newborn to Dragonstone is a non-starter. She has no reason to do so, and it is under siege besides. If she did have a living child, it is probably Allyria Dayne, Edric Dayne's suspiciously young aunt. Tyrion's conflict of his family, especially his father, is such a big part of his story, I think his being Targaryen would largely negate that, and to little advantage. Essentially, I fail to see the point. If Podrick, ir someone like Brienne, has secret ancestry, it will most likely be a sort of easter egg: cool to know, but not really affecting the story.

Given the POV structure, how would we find out if Tywin was poisoned? Oberyn is dead, Tywin is also dead, and buried. Plus, it would effectively absolve Tyrion of responsibility for his father's death, and that's not the GRRM way. He may have had health issues, plus if he isn't in bed or visible in the room, the privy is all that's left.

I don't think we know enough about Varys to analyze his actions. I suspect for story reasons he will come to a bad end, but no idea how. Littlefinger I think is overextended and has too many skeletons in his closet, especially ones Sansa won't like. His obsession with her will be his undoing.

Brienne and Sam I think are possibilities. Both have difficulty interacting with others, and Brienne seems awfully literal minded at times.

I doubt it will come down to a physical confrontation. If it does, Littlefinger is probably doomed anyway. More likely we will see intrigue, influence and political machinations. There is plenty to work with; the guy's got more skeletons in his closet than a small cemetery. Something is bound to come tumbling out (for instance, GRRM didn't put whip marks on Jeyne Poole's back for kicks; something is going on). And when they do, I expect he will find out he has fewer friends than he thought. Myranda Royce is a bit of a wild card. She's interested in Harry, so may regard Sansa as a possible rival or threat. However, I don't think Sansa is really that interested so they could become friends as well. She could also tell Sansa interesting news. Imagine if Sansa finds out Arya is married to Ramsay. She might wonder what else she isn't being told, and why. Shadrick is also a bit of a mystery. I'm not convinced he knows Alayne is really Sansa. I think he is a red herring meant to distract us. There is also the possibility of visitors. Brianne (with Podrick, who knows Sansa) and Arya are both possibilities, especially if they have figured out she is hiding there. Another question to ponder is when, how, and why Sansa's identity is revealed. If Cersei is still around, any bridges LF has will be thoroughly burned.

I think the murder had as much to do with Stannis as anything. We know Lysa's motive was Jon's plan to foster Robert with Stannis, which she opposed. LF might have decided it was a good opportunity to cause trouble between Stannis and the Lannisters, plus it made Lysa available.

It should be remembered that Littlefinger is not the main character of the Vale story; Sansa is. The Vale is a good place to hide out, learn a few things, and then make her mark when she's ready. Littlefinger is there to be her mentor, likely antagonist, and general foil. I suspect she will figure out his true nature and take him down. At this point, Baelish appears well situated, but appearances can be deceiving. He has at least one powerful enemy, Yohn Royce, and many of his allies I suspect are the type to jump ship at the earliest opportunity. I don't think he's well liked. I don't think he has any real interest in the Riverlands, especially so long as there is still fighting. Lord of Harrenhal is a nice title, but I think that is all it is for him. I don't see Sansa as having any interest there either. I think her story is a Northern one. I think Baelish's weakness is Sansa. He's obsessed with her. I think his plan is to have her marry Harry and have his child. Then get rid of Harry, and marry Sansa, and become guardian of her child. Then get rid of Sweetrobin and rule the Vale through Sansa's child, and possibly advance from there. This would require Sansa's cooperation, which he probably won't get.

Until Daenerys hatched her dragons, there were no dragons, hence no reason to have any interest in them. So whatever Jaqen was doing in Kings Landing, it has nothing to do with dragons. As to why he was in the Black Cells, he probably got caught doing something or being someplace he shouldn't have been. It happens, even master criminals. Actually, I doubt Martin really gave any though as to why he was there. He probably returned to Braavos after he left Harrenhal, and was then sent to the Citadel to get info on dragons. By then, there would be interest in them thanks to Daenerys. Why he is still there I don't know, but I expect we'll find out. Probably gathering, or perhaps destroying, information of one type or another. As for Arya's coin, he probably figured that as a scion of a great house, she could be a useful asset for the FM in Westeros. Especially if she is desperate enough to use the coin, she can probably be manipulated into working for them and helping them out from time to time.

Hey, I never said I liked the guy! I don't. But I also don't think he's quite on the level of Roose, Littlefinger, and that sort either. He doesn't go out of his way to stir up trouble, like, say, Littlefinger. The Reynes were in open rebellion; Catelyn had kidnapped his son; and hanging Aerys out to dry was hardly a bad idea, though the sack probably was. Also, I hardly think he's totalitarian. He seems pretty hands off, though it's a bit hard to tell. We see him mostly in wartime, which is hardly typical. I'd probably put him in the next category up. Which hardly makes him a good guy. I can't believe I'm defending someone I don't even like. Somehow, I keep winding up doing that.

There are some characters that don't belong with the rest. I wouldn't put Joffrey at the bottom with the likes of Gregor, Ramsay, etc. He not quite that bad, and at 13 is still a work in progress. It's possible he may have been salvageable, or could have joined the total evil. We don't know because his development was cut off by his death. Tywin Lannister don't belong in near pure evil. Tywin I think is something of a Machiavellian. He does what he thinks necessary under the circumstances. You leave him alone, he'll leave you alone. His problem is he overdoes things. Also worth remembering that he was a capable Hand who ran a prosperous and peaceful land for many years. He's a ruthless SOB, and probably leans towards evil. Janos Slynt is a venal, corrupt opportunist. A miserable person and a villain if you're a Stark, but not really evil. Just an asshole. Cersei qualifies as near pure evil for reasons mentioned by many others. Tyrion is a bit complicated. I have no real problem with most of what he does in the first three books. But lately he is going downhill. He's probably closer to villainous benchmark, whatever that is. By the way, I'm not interested in checklists or box ticking, so don't bother.

If issues like lack of language diversity, absence of visible beaurocracy, poor economics and the like are the worst you can come up with with respect to world building, I'd say he's doing pretty well. Lots of fantasy worlds I've seen are so skeletal or inconsistent these wouldn't even be considerations. And he's pretty good when it comes to personal interactions, gender issues, treatment of children, how a feudal system really works and the like, which many fantasies handle somewhat badly. In any event, I think it is well known among fans that world building is not his strong suit. Creating interesting characters and situations is where he excels. World building, especially early on, doesn't seem to have been as much of a priority, though even so it is still better developed than most, though Essos is a bit of a mess. I get the impression he has little interest in that part of the world and it shows.

Why would Howland change his appearance? Nobody is looking for him, and no one knows what he looks like anyway. I'm looking for clues to point me to him being Howland and I'm not finding anything. And appearance is a clue GRRM likes to use. His stature and (supposed) cunning are nowhere near specific enough. He straight out tells Brienne he's interested in Sansa and offers to bring her along, and Brienne is the one being obvious? At least she isn't telling total strangers what she's up to and inviting them along. What if she accepts? He has to ditch her, or maybe try to kill her if she's too persistent, which might be difficult. She's bigger, better equipped, and probably more skilled than he is. I can figure out a clear narrative purpose for just about every secret identity that is taken halfway seriously. I can't figure one out here. It makes far more sense that Howland is in the North somewhere and that Shadrich is a hedge knight that maybe got lucky.

I am quite skeptical of the idea that Shadrich is Howland Reed in disguise. We've been given no obvious (at least in retrospect) clues suggesting they are the same person. In fact, what we have leads to the conclusion they aren't the same person. His actions towards Brienne make no sense if he's Howland. And I fail to see how his being Howland helps advance Sansa's story. GRRM is pretty good about giving us hints about secret identities. These revolve around descriptions, locations, and activities that clearly match up. We have no description for Howland himself, but we do for his children, and they don't match up well. Meera has brown hair and green eyes, and Jojen's eyes are described as a deep green. Neither is described as "fox-faced". Shadrich's eyes aren't mentioned, and his hair is orange (could be dyed, but why?). Also, Howland was known to use a spear and net, which he taught to Meera. Nothing about a sword, which Brienne assesses Shadrich is skilled with. Obviously, none of this prevents him from being Howland, but it certainly does nothing to help lead to that conclusion. Yes, Brienne might be a bit obvious, but so what? She's mostly asking smallfolk, who may or may not have been given Sansa's description. I kind of doubt it; we've seen from Arya's story that information for commoners is often unreliable. Even if connected to Sansa, the worst that could happen would be someone following her. Which did happen, but both Podrick and Hyle knew about her search already. He makes no attempt to find out her interest, or even if she is aware of the reward. She has the potential to be a useful ally, given that she is well equipped, capable in a fight, and though he doesn't know it, knew Sansa's mother. In fact, a smart conversation might tease that out. If he's worried about her attracting attention, simply tell her to keep her mouth shut. How does Howland being in the Vale help Sansa's story. She needs to start making stuff happen on her own, not being rescued by unknown benefactors. She's becoming a player, and that means identifying allies and seeking them out. I'm not sure how Howland's presence helps with that. Also, as others have pointed out, he's of more use causing trouble for the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters in the North than anything he might accomplish in the Vale. I think Shadrich is simply a hedge knight in search of a payday. I doubt he's actively searching for Sansa, though he'd be happy to take the reward if he found her. I think he is in the Vale because it's a steady job. That Sansa is there is coincidental (GRRM does like his coincidences). Storywise, he's a red herring to distract us from other more real threats, most likely including Baelish.

I am not about to try and analyze a character's moral stature by simply using a checklist, especially one devised by someone else whose ideals, ideology, and thought processes are entirely unknown to us. That route leads to inconsistency, absurdity, and madness. Cersei is the worst of the Lannisters, with the possible exception of her son, who was a work in progress at his death. Deal with it. Tywin is next in the hierarchy, mostly because he simply doesn't care about the damage he does. He's the ultimate Machiavellian. Tyrion and Jaime are about equal. Tyrion started off quite decent, but has gotten worse, especially after Joffrey's death, while Jaime started off as pretty bad, but seems to cleaning up his act.

I try not to get too specific in my predictions. It comes out like fanfic and you wind up being wrong a lot. But here goes. North: Davos (4). Picks up Rickon and winds up as our eyes on Hardhome, which is one big fubar. Ends up going north. May make contact with Benjen. Doubt he gets south of the wall before the end of the book. Bran (5). Learns magical stuff from BR. Discovers info on Others and reason to distrust Children. Leaves with Meera and Hodor via the underground river. May communicate through WW but likely with difficulty. Mel (2). Covers events at the Wall after attack on Jon. Jeyne arrives and with Ramsay apparently in pursuit, is sent onward to Eastwatch and presumably Braavos. Stannis (6 between Asha and Theon). Takes Winterfell with help of Karstarks and playing dead. Messy fight though. Due to WF's ruined status, forced to go elsewhere (Cerwyn or White Harbor maybe). Jon (7). After awakening from coma, consolidates power and places loyalists in important spots. Deals with imminent Others threat, Stannis, and possibly Boltons. Remains LC but is de facto ruler of the North. Braavos and elsewhere: Arya (7). After preview, is on thin ice with FM. Eventually meets Jeyne and decides to return home. FM allow her to leave after extracting a promise to help if needed, probably their aim all along. Returns to Westeros with Jeyne in tow. Most likely goes to Riverlands, but White Harbor and Vale are also possible. Riverlands: (6 from Jaime and Brienne). There may be RW 2. If so, I am skeptical it will succeed. Security at Riverrun will be extremely tight. I think Jaime is being saved for a rescue of Frey prisoners. If so, he may die in the attempt. I think he is not long for this world. Kings Landing, etc.: (Cersei 5, Arianne 4). More politics. Cersei and Margaery both win trials. Lots of infighting. Oldtown: (Samwell 5, Aeron 2). Something is happening in Oldtown. Likely a fight with Euron. Possibly some sort of conspiracy at the Citadel as well. Slavers bay: (Daenerys 7, Tyrion 6, Victarion 2, Barristan 2). Dany consolidates Dothraki, Tyrion sorts out Meereen. Both head west, separately. Areo Hotah 1 Sansa (7) Learns politics in the Vale. Deals with LF. Heads North. Does not marry Harry. Around 80 chapters. Less than I thought. I'm assuming some characters join up. They can tell each other's stories, similar to AGOT. Arya, for example had five chapters, but important events were told by Jon, Sansa, and Eddard.

Even on its own merits, it's a lousy theory. First, there is nothing that specifically points to Howland. We have no matching description, which is how most secret identities have been sussed out, nor does he have specific knowledge or is in a particularly significant location. Second, what we do know doesn't match either. He has no reason to be on the road between Kings Landing and Duskendale. What was he doing in KL? Sitting on his ass? Why is he with the cheap merchant. Most importantly, why doesn't he make any effort to discover Brienne's motives. She's well equipped, can probably handle herself in a fight, and is female. And if she's interested in helping Sansa, why chase her off? Telling her he is seeking a reward and offering to share is stupid. If she accepts, you have an inconvenient companion you need to shake off. Or you chase off a potential useful ally. And why would he expect Sansa to trust him anyway, especially as she would appear to be safe, hidden away with family as protectors (Baelish is now her uncle, along with her cousin Robert. If Howland is pretending to be someone else, my money would be on the Hooded Man in Winterfell. But I don't think he's that either.

Brienne's not that careless. Remember, she was careful enough not to use Sansa's name while searching for her. So I doubt she would make it obvious she knows who she is. And if she does figure out Sansa is with Baelish at the Eyrie, she could decide Sansa is safe where she is. She's well hidden there, and Baelish is her uncle by marriage and guardian to her cousin. I still think she still might end up with Sansa in the Vale. Martin did, after all, give her a companion who knows Sansa. Of course, Baelish also knows Podrick, so it could get tricky.

Nobody else has figured it out yet, either, if they're being honest. I think Martin left it that way on purpose; so we would wonder. I think he's a red herring. He's there because of of Baelish's job offer. Storywise, I think he's there to distract us; make us think he's a threat to Sansa while the real threat goes unnoticed. But I could very easily be wrong. One thing I am convinced of is that he is not Howland Reed, or anyone else, in disguise.

Well you do have 24 chapters listed and there are 20 POVs still alive, so I'm guessing you can't list everyone. And some of the more minor ones won't get much in any event. I know that when I try to figure out how many chapters each POV gets, I end up with a total that is more than will fit into one volume (85 or so). I'm thinking he is going to have to consolidate stories pretty extensively, so POVs are in proximity and can tell each other's stories. He can kill some off, but the ones that need the most chapters are the main characters (the big 6), and they're not going anywhere. By the way, how many chapters total are you predicting? Just curious. Right now, I can't get below 92 or so.