Universal Sword Donor

We have no idea if the Umbers or Rodrik were complicit at all. Rodrik dies before we hear of anything else and there is absolutely no mention of Umber help / lumber or even Umber refugees anywhere around WH or Manderly lands, which are already flush with more than enough timber, sailors, and shipwrights to build the galleys we "see" and are told about. Ockham's razor should be telling us Manderly built the fleet of his own volition -- possibly with the tax revenues the customs agents were withholding from King Robb -- in response to the catastrophe at WF and Blackwater.

Uh .... he hangs a Lannister soldier for doing exactly that: One of the Mountain's men had tried to rape the girl at Harrenhal, and had seemed honestly perplexed when Jaime commanded Ilyn Payne to take his head off. "I had her before, a hunnerd times," he kept saying as they forced him to his knees. "A hunnerd times, m'lord. We all had her." When Ser Ilyn presented Pia with his head, she had smiled through her ruined teeth.

He orders the the Umbers to build longships with Manderly's help. Whether or not that happens we do not know. Longships would really only be useful against wildling raiders and *maybe* smaller pirates. We know they do not stand up to larger galleys -- iron fleet excepted -- and cannot ferry a large group around thanks to Jason Mallister. Her son turned to Lord Jason Mallister. "You have a fleet at Seagard?" "A fleet, Your Grace? Half a dozen longships and two war galleys. Enough to defend my own shores against raiders, but I could not hope to meet the Iron Fleet in battle." We do know that Manderly has been building war galleys for about a year, which is about the time that Rodrik was killed, while the Umbers split their forces between Bolton and Stannis. I doubt Robb ever even heard about the fleet proposal given how hard it was to reach him in the field, the events that followed the harvest feast, and his untimely death. More likely Manderly started preparing for the fleet when he heard about Blackwater, Bran and Rickon's deaths, et al, either to take advantage of the power vacuum -- to preserve stark power or increase his own -- or make sure Robb wouldn't be at a disadvantage against the royal fleet. It's still a gray area as what Manderly intends to do with Rickon and this new fleet, but it's pretty apparent he started working on his own without receiving assent from Rodrik or Robb. PDF Timeline for reference https://mega.nz/file/tpgxUATJ#F6Q13AE1eAyaM5XMNkLSvzvkN20N77DNzdukLSm9qYw

Man not to wade into a real life mess but that's a pretty inaccurate picture of what happened. To say nothing of the ongoing conflicts between the major sects of Islam -- these existed because Mohammed's family literally went to war over who would lead and how to lead islam -- the treatment of Christians by Muslims in the Middle East wasn't great. Obviously nor was the treatment of Jews by Christians , all of this obviously pre-crusades. Massacres of christian pilgrims in Asia Minor and Syria / Palestine were pretty common. One of the first emirs of Egypt, al Hakim, destroyed all the churches and synagogues under his rule and killed a lot of jews and christians (and allied turks in his government) in a manner very similar to what the first bands of crusaders did in Germany and France en route to the Holy land. Lot of shitty stuff going on in the the religious world at the time.

The issue really being there's nothing to subvert. There need be no pretext in private meetings and the Manderlys and Umbers are trying to solve for different problems. Manderly wants to build an offensive force -- war galleys -- to end the war in Robb's favor. “Lord Manderly also proposed to build Robb a warfleet. “We have had no strength at sea for hundreds of years, since Brandon the Burner put the torch to his father’s ships. Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King’s Landing both.” The Umbers want to build a patrolling force -- longships -- to prevent wildings on ersatz drift boat rafts from sailing around the wall. “Hother wanted ships. “There’s wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I’ve ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It’s longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them.” Umbers being loud and blustery for no real reason isn't exactly new as we see Greatjon do it to Robb on the march south. Robb set his wolf on him and set him straight. Rodrik, Robb's representative in the north, tells More to STFU and go build ships. Pretty straightforward in light of a vassal's obligations and feudal governance.

" " I've included every single excerpt from the series that would support or demonstrate that claim.

Their mission was already in danger. Ramsay* has pledged to march onto Castle Black and demands things that he suspects Jon has but doesn't (Reek, Arya, Craster's son, and possible Val). He is going to attack the NW if he does not get them. Regardless of what one thinks of releasing Mance with his six spearwives, the watch definitely now faces an existential threat and the worst way possible to prep for it is to cause more disunity among the ranks. Bowen is not especially smart -- one could easily argue he's fairly stupid and vindictive though not entirely wrong in this case -- and him choosing the worst way to remove a LC and pick the worst time is not surprising. * or the author of the pink letter

Pretty easy to understand from where Rodrik is sitting. The people he tells what to do are stewards or castellans. With the lords and ladies, he orders nothing and the closest exception is advice from Luwin (Hornwood and storage of grain). He'd not be telling Greatjon (or probably even smalljon) to work with Manderly on his boats.

We have the answer in the books. He didn’t bother responding to me for a reason

You have read the books. You know this answer We do know this: In Volantis he had seen the galleys taking on provisions. The whole city had seemed drunk. Sailors and soldiers and tinkers had been observed dancing in the streets with nobles and fat merchants, and in every inn and winesink cups were being raised to the new triarchs. All the talk had been of the gold and gems and slaves that would flood into Volantis once the dragon queen was dead. One day of such reports was all that Victarion Greyjoy could stomach; he paid the gold price for food and water, though it shamed him, and took his ships back out to sea. The storms would have scattered and delayed the Volantenes, even as they had his own ships. If fortune smiled, many of their warships might have sunk or run aground. But not all. No god was that good, and those green galleys that survived by now could well have sailed around Valyria. They will be sweeping north toward Meereen and Yunkai, great dromonds of war teeming with slave soldiers. Slaver's bay is far too large to sail for Galleys to sail that quickly. No debate there. Heavily disagree. She's only going to have whatever she can bring to Westeros. It's a super long voyage from SB to KL and she's not going to be moving all those people over (again). They would either die on the march there or arrive too late because sailing around the world takes a long time. "At the far end of the world," said Mace Tyrell. "Queen of Slaver's Bay, aye. She is welcome to it."

That's a new name for me and I've read a fair amount about the Napoleonic wars, mostly centered on the man himself. Will have to scurry off and read up on this gentleman.

There is no food in the dothraki sea, so the same issues would arise. Any large group would starve, especially one walking with women and children and camp followers. So take the more direct road and starve or the less direct path and starve. Again the biggest issues are the existing boats already have a full complement and the ships in the harbor you're mentioning are thousands of miles (leagues?) away. We know exactly what happens with large fleets when they cross the narrow sea and sail from Westeros to Slaver's Bay

They definitely took those but they also used the larger portion of the captives as unskilled manual labor and for better or worse human shields / cannon fodder / zergs. The Mongols often used great numbers of enemy captives to cover their advances–ruthlessly forcing enemy forces to kill their own countrymen in order to engage the Mongols in hand-to-hand combat. The Mongols added to the confusion by continuing to fire arrows at the enemy behind their reluctant human shields. Ghenghis Khan and 13th Century Mongolians On an unrelated note, it is really a fucking bummer that more library systems don't have access to military warfare history journals.

I expect that too but the issue is the volantene ships (and the others) are already full of .... soldiers and sailors.

Now do the Iron Fleet, crewed by the best sailors on the planet, and their trip to Mereen. Dany won't have the boats to move all her armies, let alone her followers, and we know how the march west from Mereen goes: It was possible to go overland to Meereen, that much was true. The old Valyrian roads would take them there. Dragon roads, men called the great stone roadways of the Freehold, but the one that ran eastward from Volantis to Meereen had earned a more sinister name: the demon road. "The demon road is dangerous, and too slow," Quentyn said. "The demon road, they call it now," said Mollono Yos Dob. The plump commander of the Stalwart Shields looked more like a scribe than a soldier, with his inky hands and heavy paunch, but he was as clever as they came. "Many and more of us would die." "The demon road is death. We will lose half the company to desertion if we attempt that march, and bury half of those who remain beside the road. It grieves me to say it, but Magister Illyrio and his friends may have been unwise to put so much hope on this child queen."

Starks had plenty of summer wine on hand when Robert visited and it was being over served in the back where Jon was sitting. They had spiced wine as well. The visit obviously took its toll but Robert’s party was enormous and the Starks had it all covered. Even in the prologue we see rangers drinking wine and the officers enjoying it when Tyrion comes. Little if any of that is gonna be sourced from the North proper.

Not sure I believe you’ve read that novella if this is your group of suspects.

There's an abandoned fortress directly in the vicinity of the bridge. No need to build a fortress directly on it (a la the Twins) when you can control it just as effectively from an easier to build, nearby location. Temporary palisades and fortifications are a lot cheaper and easier to deploy than building and maintaining permanent ones.

Yet he does "poison" him on the implied threat of Sansa

Colemon literally "poisons" SR at Sansa's direction, albeit due to her position of influence with LF, so that's just directly contradicted by the text. Sansa is already complicit, as shown by her POV internal monologue. I'm not shifting the argument one iota. I am saying that in the sample chapter there is evidence that supports my position. There's nothing after the Gates of the moon reception feast in AFFC It's the eyeball button in the formatting section, but that's fine not to agree. However there's literally nothing from AFFC post feast or WoW to support your position.

LF (and Sansa) literally tell him to do it directly despite his strenuous objections. His adherence to their demands is to be expected when LF is the lord of the castle and the most powerful person in the Vale. And there's no evidence Colemon is administering it still after the last mention.

There's literally no support for Colemon purposely poisoning SR. There is plenty of direct and circumstantial that LF is indifferent or worse to poisoning SR.

LF needs the boy alive long enough for Sansa and Harry to marry. That much is clear and he retains absolutely no power if he is removed as regent and protector of the vale, which would make him and Sansa vulnerable to the crown, and is specifically why he asked for a year to set things to right. So whether or not he's disloyal, Sansa is dead on about LF and her having larger concerns. As to Colemon, there's no proof other than weak supposition and worse conjecture I've seen.

No one ever gets to the end of that paragraph: “You had best take that up with the Lord Protector.” She pushed through the door and crossed the yard. Colemon only wanted the best for his charge, Alayne knew, but what was best for Robert the boy and what was best for Lord Arryn were not always the same. Petyr had said as much, and it was true. Maester Colemon cares only for the boy, though. Father and I have larger concerns.” It's pretty clear throughout the exchange she's doing what LF would do and the reasons for doing it override her apparent care for SR. LF wants more power (and Sansa, which she knows), but they are both defying the throne and committing treason by hiding Sansa. She is trusting LF as far as she dare because she wants to continue living without being in Cersei's tender clutches.

Do we know who knighted Lyn Corbray after the Battle of Gulltown?