sweetsunray

On 11/22/2023 at 4:22 PM, Northern Sword said:

My point was that a 7 year not knowing something important, isn't some stretch. At this point in the story he isn't this all seeing, all knowing, omnipresent kid(yet) . He has some strange dreams at this point. That's about it. Making him the arbitrator of all knowledge is jumping the gun a bit.

The point wasn't making him an all knowing boy at 7 before becoming a greenseer, or making him the arbiter of all knowledge.

The point was to set up a comparison: Bran not knowing of any "backdoor" for the crypts while he knows the layout and secret cutways better than anybody else even living in WF (the maester) at the start of the series versus this proposal that Barbrey and other lords who aren't Starks, who never lived at WF would know some secret way in, have the crypts opened, to smuggle in a murdering hooded man, to sow discord amongst the armies inside the castle.

Heck, it's being contemplated by the proposers as some "common secret knowledge" amongst the older generations of several northern houses, from the Neck to the Last Hearth. And that's absurd. That's what I mean with "If Bran doesn't know it, then nobody of House Ryswell, House Dustin or Last Hearth knows of it".

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It is also stated several times, how no one goes down into the depths of the crypts, so know one really knows. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Correction: it's stated a few times that the way into the lowest and oldest vault has collapsed. There's a physical obstruction that prevents maesters and present day Starks to explore or visit the lowest and oldest cavernous vaults of the crypts.

So, if that lowest vault was some secret way to a backdoor, then that backdoor would lead a man into being trapped.

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The nature of an elaborate set of fissures and tunnels that were made into crypts and subsequently protected by the first keep and walls, very well may have another secret yet to be disclosed.

The walls of Winterfell were built by Edrick "Snowbeard" Stark. He reigned for almost a century, and one of the early kings of the whole North. His rule was troubled by quarrels amongst descendants, threat of Ironborn and the Boltons both, as well as slaving raiders capturing Wolf's Den (which roughly aligns with the era of the Andals conquering the Vale.) He was the king who ordered the outer walls that surround Winterfell to be built because of those threats and struggles. The walls were therefore built around the coming of the Andals in Westeros and House Stark was already a well established united kingdom "the North" for several thousands of years. How recent this is in comparison to their past is evident with Snowbeard being one of the king statues in the crypts in the upper vault (aCoK, Bran VII). In such times and with such rivalries and already so well established a family on a terrain as big as Winterfell, nobody's going to build walls and allow some backdoor to exist outside of those walls that becomes the common secret knowledge with other houses.

Yes, it's fun to speculate about all sorts of secrets about the crypts or Winterfell, a clutch of dragon eggs, harps, secret backdoors. My proposal of the sanctuary underground city, Brandon's origin also belong to that realm, because it hasn't been confirmed yet. But at least I my speculation is based on the knowledge about Winterfell: architectural, layout, natural phenomena, events inside or around the crypts, and world book history. The secret backdoor speculation or people arguing "well hypothetically there could be yet another secret and wouldnt that be fun" have not actually checked either the "history" of the grounds and castle, pondered architecture or even the layout of Winterfell. The Winterfell in their head and its coming into existence and creation is not the one that George began to textually build since the earliest chapters of aGoT (Bran's and Cat's).

The Winterfell in their head is: smaller than it is and leveled; the godswood is at the edge; the keeps or castles must have been the heart and everything else was built around that; the crypts were dug out as exclusive family graves; an architectural early completely First man-made wonder in stone that was built within the lifetime of one legendary man who was both founder, petty king and king of the entire north at once; it was always walled.

Most of the text and descriptions contradict that Winterfell in many a reader's head (explicitly).

So, yes, not all is confirmed or revealed yet. That allows for speculation. But some speculation actually uses information on Winterfell from the various sources and POVs, while others are absurd because based on a Winterfell contradicted by text and stuff that at least has been confirmed.

13 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Ah, like the Bible, getting updated with new chapters of miracles every century. Until they started the other type of fanfic called hagiography.

Or fanzines where you get to write a heroic story of your own invention with a hero named and created by someone else

3 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

While I agree there is no real mention of secret entrances (yet).

Bran is what, 7 years old. Cant really base much on the knowledge of a 7 y/o. While he loved climbing and knew a lot of the secrets Winterfell has, that by no means would mean he knows everything. 

The crypts leads to the godswood, easily can lead somewhere else as well, no? A secondary tunnel could quite easily lead out of the castle entirely. Real world and in-universe castles have these quite regularly. So there is a precedent. 

Winterfell was built over a long period of time, growing larger in different phases with different builders. Any one of these phases or builders could have included a secret entrance. 

I think of the Red Keep, while the spider knew of the secret tunnels. did Robert ? or Joffrey ? Probably not. 

If Bran doesn't know it, nobody else does.

Everything points to the crypts having once been a secret underground greenseer cavernous capital, which goes mostly deep. The seated warg kings on "thrones" with wolves and their bones kept there are a remainder of it. It's just at the bottom, it wouldn't look like graves, but weirwood thrones with skulls and bones littering the areas. The crypts as they are now is a huge hint to this, but the biggest hint to it are the hot springs. Hot springs are geographically caused by two phenomena: either volcanic activity OR deep fissures that reach through the crust all the way to the magma beneath the crust. So, either magma is near the surface, or caverns reach as deep as magma. In both cases heat generated by radioactive decay heats the underground rivers, and thus hot springs.

In the world book, maesters are only aware of volcanic activity as cause, but they do not have the knowledge about deep fissures. And here's the thing - neither in legends or tales or known written histories is there any mention of volcanic activity in and around the immediate environ of WF. So, the hot springs are not caused by volcanic activity (magma going to the surface), but because of fissures going deep and deep into the earth. That's why we do get figurative tales about a dragon sleeping deep underground at the lowest level of the crypts. It's also why the eldest graves are in the deepest vaults, and the most recent ones near the surface.

Once you recognize that WF was a "sanctuary" (deep cavernous sacred space and shelter) for both greenseers and people and CotF during the Long Night and that Brandon the Builder was such a greenseer (and not an architect... WF was never leveled even), you come to realize that the entrance into the crypts is the natural and only entrance into this underground shelter city. That's WHY it leads to the heart tree and godswood (which are located at the physical center, heart of the entire grounds). Nobody began to build anything there until the Long Night was a memory and petty kingdoms started to pop up... 100-200 years after BtB was last "seen". And where would they have started to build their first holdfast towers and fortresses, against other people? At the entrance into the sanctuary. That's why the oldest buildings are situated near the entrance into the crypts. And yes, later generations kept on building, and building, but they built beyond the entrance into the sanctuary and around the godswood.

This idea of a secret entrance into WF via the crypts shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how WF grew and what it originally was. When you realize that WF walls and stone constructions were basically the expansion beyond the sanctuary, and that the building commenced at the entrance into the undeground greenseer sanctuary, it becomes clear it's the sole entrance into the crypts, and therefore there cannot be another way outside of the walls in.

The "crypts" predate any building or stone constructions.

The "secret entrance" has no real foundation in the books

• Bran knows the castle's secrets, more than maester Aemon, but even he doesn't know about the secret entrance. If he had, he wouldn't have needed Hodor to throw all his strength against the blocked crypt entrance after the sack of Winterfell, with blocks of the First Keep blocking the door from being opened from the inside. He could have used the alternative route. If Bran doesn't know it, then nobody knows.
• The crypts themselves lead to the hot springs of the godswood, which is btw 3 acres big. So while it is a vast cavernous tunnel system, its sole entry point is the crypt's entrance. This makes sense when so many allusions about secret underground cities of the past is about "taking shelter". If you have only one entrance to seal, the enemy cannot get in.
• The latter is supported by the later building and lay-out of Winterfell: several (I repeat "several") hills and valleys within the walls of Winterfell, a 3 acre godswood at the heart/center of Winterfell, the oldest buildings (towers and first keep) near the crypt entrance, and expanions from thereon to an even bigger perimeter with the Walls fully enclosing it. So if there is a "backdoor" entrance it actually would still fall within Winterfell.

4 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

On another note, do we have a dedicated fanfiction sub-forum, or we don't cause GRRM doesn't like fanfics?

No fanfiction sub forum, because George is anti-fanfic. I get why for various reasons. Although I do sometimes refer to the process of the various grail knight adventures and Arthurian cycles written over the centuries as basically an example of "fanfic"... with each author filling in a gap or period that wasn't in the older popular story/legend or focused on some obscurely mentioned knight of the round table and spin a whole new tale for that "superhero".

15 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

A little observation on JonCon, following sweetsunray's previous analysis.

The colors of House Connington are Red and White. The entire structure of their arms is also very yin-yang, so I think TWOW would be interesting in showing whether JonCon rides the red griffin (aka dies) or rides the white griffin.

And well.... I have no idea what the white griffin hints at. It seems a stretch for him to turn into a wight this far from the Wall.

Don't forget that JonCon's fake identity at Essos had a "red wolf" as symbol

On 10/24/2023 at 3:13 AM, Gilbert Green said:

 "Guile" in this case is a euphemism for sorcery, and some of those friends in the Reach are sorcerers.

Team Varys is a strict "no-sorcery" team. Varys is the "magician" of team-exiles (per Illyrio in aGoT as Arya overhears them), and his magic are mummer tricks. JonCon ain't using sorcery. 

On 9/11/2023 at 8:17 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Connington said that they would take Storm's End by guile, not by force.

There is a popular theory that they would approach the castle during the night with the golden banners of the Golden Company and the garrison would mistake them for the yellow Baratheon banners and let JonCon and company in. Trojan Horse style.

Which makes no sense, since Stannis' banners aren't anything remotely like the standard yellow Baratheon.

Yes, I know the quote of Arianne's excerpt chapter. Imo it's a red herring. George put the mystery out how JonCon would take SE way before Arianne's excerpt. By raising the question already in aDwD for the reader "how is he going to pull that one off?" the tactics and who will be involved was already set up in aFfC and aDwD. It's not going to be Arianne in tWoW thinking to herself that golden banners can be mistaken for Baratheon banners that neither Stannis Baratheon or Tommen Baratheon use.

And you're ignoring that there are two factions that need to be misled here: the forces besieging SE and the garrison inside SE.

49 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Theon's purported killing of Bran and Rickon wasn't shrugged off by Stark loyalists with "oh well, it's not like either of them was the king".

But then Bran and Rickon would not jump in line ahead of Robb's child if he would ever had one, right?

While Aenys did it peacefully, he slily acted on his own to claim a crown, completely ignoring he had a nephew (Haegon died and fathered Daemon III before Aenys put his claim to the grand council). 

Furthermore, I believe Maelys was the last son of Daemon Blackfyre. But even if he was a grandson, like Aenys he upjumped his nephews or second cousins, but he did it by kinslaying. Bittersteel would have rolled in his golden grave if he had one.

The timing of Daemon II's effort at Whitewalls coincides with a time when Bittersteel would have been fighting for the Second Sons, and before the existence of the Golden Company. So, I'm more inclined to think that Peake managed to persuade Daemon II to come behind Bittersteel's back. In fact, this could be the reason why Peake himself is annoyed whenever someone else mentions the absence of Bittersteel. It's not as if House Peake shies away from taking initiative and act without coordinating with Bittersteel. It's with their solo rebellion that Maekar dies, while Bittersteel makes a last attempt during Aegon V's reign (after Maekar) with Daemon III.

3 hours ago, KingMaekarWasHere said:

Didn't GRRM state in an interview or at a convention that Bittersteel never had children? I don't mean to say for certain that you are incorrect on this point, but George does tend to have a decent memory most of the time so it's very likely that Bittersteel was infertile or that all of his half-Blackfyre children died stillborn. (Maybe deformed at that like many Targ babies.) 

Not sure. It's of course possible he had no children.

But even then I still observe a succession of crownings that at the very least go against the image that Peake creates about Bittersteel being absent at Whitewalls and Daemon II not having Blackfyre. On the surface we are given the impression that Bittersteel isn't a fan of Daemon II and didn't back him. And yet, he did not crown another claimant until Daemon II had died. And he crowned a grandson over one of Daemon II's surviving younger brothers.

More, I doubt that Bittersteel was upset with Bloodraven for arresting and killing one of Daemon II's younger brothers: Aenys Blackfyre was Daemon Blackfyre's 5th son, while Daemon III was a grandson via Haegon (4th son of Daemon Blackfyre). Grandsons come before uncles. 

21 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

The best warriors in Westeros are Dayne, so they are strong, and probably Dorne is the third richest kingdom

The comparison of one knight against another knight (in duel or tourney) is not to be confused by extrapolating it to an army, which consists of knights, horsemanship, and thousands of levies from smallfolk sons, husbands and grandsons trained to wield a pike, a staff and/or bow.

House Dayne may claim they produce the finest and best knight/warrior within the family, but one knight is not an army.

9 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

But this isn't like Tyrion at Winterfell, where they may not like him but feel obliged to honour the niceties. Or some random lord stopping by where the castellan might worry he's missed a memo or will get chewed out for giving offence. He's an enemy, a king with whom Aegon is at war. You don't let declared enemies into your castle, or at least not without placing them under armed confinement. Then the castellan would be sending an urgent raven to Aegon.

And how under this situation would Nymor get his letter to Deria anyway? It's not a raven letter. I find it hard to imagine he could have reached Dragonstone and got a letter off to reach Deria before the Dragonstone castellan got a raven to Aegon. Alternatively, he gave the letter to Deria before he even set out, but that would require a lot of unwarranted confidence in his ability to get into Dragonstone without being taken prisoner.

I did not claim that Nymor wrote the letter from Dragonstone. He wrote it in Dorne and gave it to his daughter when she left overland. That gave him ample time to embark on a sea voyage to Dragonstone, while all spy reports and political debates are on his daughter making a continental diplomatic overland journey to King's Landing with the skull of Meraxes.

And yes, there is cause for the castellan to be confused, since the very moment that Nymor puts up anchor at Dragonstone, Aegon and Visenya are welcoming his daughter (also an enemy) under a negotation banner and with the dragon skull. And here comes the Prince himself, without an army and the remains of Rhaenys, mentioning that he "informed" Aegon of his coming (which he does in the letter handed by Deria to Aegon) and that Aegon can be expected to come meet him that very evening and night.

So, you're construing a nonsensical scenario to dismiss my proposal that you either misunderstood or as straw man because you did not even wish to consider it.

Repeat: the scenario I'm proposing is that Nymor wrote the letter in Dorne, explaining how while his daughter traveled overland to King's Landing with the skull of Meraxes, he will have traveled to Dragonstone by ship to meet with Aegon. On the one hand he mentions that he has come with remains too precious to hand over to Aegon in a throne room while making an allusion to baby Maegor (and a veiled threat).

Upon reading Deria's letter, Aegon realized that this may actually be happening. That they left baby Maegor without a parent and Dragonstone without a dragonrider. For a moment, Aegon would have wavered between "bluff" or "wtf if this is true". And the sole manner in which Aegon could discover whether it was true or not, was by flying to Dragonstone, and alone (to save his public face). Even having to fly to Dragonstone to verify the claim in the letter would be a personal diplomatic loss, just like someone making some outrageous but very scary claim of someone standing behind you and making you look. And Aegon knew it. Nymor used a similar psychological game against him, like he once did with Argilac. Aegon knew Argilac would refuse Orys Baratheon for a husband, that proposing Orys would be taken as an insult, and therefore Aegon goaded Argilac into a war/battle of Aegon's choosing. Nymor's letter goads Aegon into accepting a peace, because not doing so would not just endanger Maegor or Aenys' lives, but because of "made you look" manipulation.

Aegon flew to Dragonstone, and he met Nymor briefly, received the returned remains of his wife and burned them. By the time he flew back to King's Landing, Nymor already sailed back for Sunspear, and Aegon announced there would be peace.

Most actual truce or peace deals agreed to tend to have a public diplomatic event, but cannot succeed without a backdoor meeting. Deria is the public front. The actual secret peace agreement was reached on Dragonstone, where only Aegon flew off too, and the sole person with higher diplomatic rank than Deria is Nymor himself. 

And though it seems but a minor thing against claims of Dornish threats or secrets on how to destroy dragons or magic or prophecy, it explains exactly why Aegon took the secret of the content of the letter to his grave. The only people who knew Nymor managed to make Aegon look over his shoulder were Aegon and Nymor himself, and very maybe Visenya when it was decided that neither prince would ever be without a parent, without an experienced dragonrider, and grew up separate (eggs in different baskets). A fresh new King of so many kingdoms would loathe for anyone to ever find out how easily he and his sister were tricked. But in order to keep the meeting and the letter secret, the reason why he flew to Dragonstone at all, he also was bound to keep the return of his sister-wife's remains a secret.

On 11/10/2023 at 11:16 AM, KingAerys_II said:

When Princess Deria Martell came to King's Landing to provide peace terms, Lord Orys argued for sending the princess back to her father Nymor, the Prince of Dorne, without a hand.
Lord Oakheart suggested that Deria should be sent to "the meanest of brothels to service any man who would have her"

Aegon vassals showed no will to respect guest right

Well, I never claimed that Nymor paid Storm's End or the Reach a visit, did I? And Orys' proposals about what to do with Princess Deria Martell shows Lord Orys was in KL at the time.

Vassal lords is something entirely different than a castellan or a guard on duty, either landless house nobility or smallfolk.

13 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I find it unlikely that Nymor could just stroll into Dragonstone and lay hands on Aegon's son. The dragons may not be there but even if he somehow made it past the royal navy (and any patrols off the Stormlands coast) it's still a fortress with a castellan and garrison. It's not like Visenya flying to the Eyrie where she has a dragon that can bypass all the defences and potentially destroy the whole thing single-handed.

I think it highly likely that if Nymor arrives at Dragonstone with just 1-3 ships, in rich dress, no army, no soldiers, just a few men of Dornish houses carrying the remains of Rhaenys could indeed "just stroll in" as you put it.

They wouldn't be seen as a threat, but as a visitor. And you don't usually let a prince or king personally visiting your master's house with the remains of his dead wife wait outside of the gates in a shabby inn, because the master isn't home, especially if you're not from some illustrous noble house yourself.

Guards only halt or stop dirty looking skinny girls they confuse for a street urchin at gates. And even when such a girl command them in a bossy tone, claiming to be the Hand's daughter, they let someone pass right into the red keep.

Whether or not Nymor actually had baby Maegor in his arms, admiring him on his strength and vigor, the moment Aegon walked into his own hall is not even that important. What matters is that Nymor claimed he intended to or would be holding baby Maegor in the letter and for a moment succeeded to put deep fear and doubt into Aegon's heart. For a moment Aegon knew that what Nymor's letter claimed could be true, that even the most loyal guards, castellans and wetnurses could be duped or bossed around by anyone who was willing to deceive them and ill intent. The moment Aegon flew to Dragonstone on Balerion to even see with his own eyes whether the claim in the letter was true or not, that would be evidence of his doubt and vulnerability. The idea, the doubt and the fear of "could it be" serve their purpose. 

Aegon's conquering started with a letter to Argilac the Arrogant, and it ended with Nymor's letter.

11 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Visenya had a dragon to fly past the guards. While I get the idea, I do not understand how Nymor was supposed to get past the garrison of Dragonstone castle.

If the Prince of Dorne arrives with a few ships and announces himself at the gate without making any overt threat, and has the bodily remains of Rhaenys with him, would anyone dare to refuse him? Why would they leave 4-5 noble, rich men remain outside when they obviously cannot "conquer Dragonstone" and aren't there to assassinate Aegon or Visenya (who are in KL), and baby Maegor was the spare?

It's not as if any of the garisson at WF ran inside, left Tyrion and Yoren waiting outside the gate and walls, when they came knocking late in the evening at WF while Ned Stark and Cat were away. They were let inside the gates and walls, and Robb and Bran warned and fetched. And baby Rickon for example ran around freely. 

3 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

A surprise assault while the Velaryon fleet is around Dragonstone and there are Balerion, Vhagar, probably the Cannibal and the other dragons, it's not easy to take control of Dragonstone 

Belaron and Vhagar were in KL. All the other dragons don't matter, because they were riderless.

7 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

So Nymor launched a surprise assault on the castle of Dragonstone?

A surprise visit, rather than an assault. Like Visenya paid the Lord of the Vale a friendly visit once.

Symbolically the letter is the final stroke from Sunspear's golden arm. Paper and words can cut deeper than an assault would have. And it drew Aegon's "own blood", which can be seen as an analogy to the children of his "own blood". Soft, friendly words, and a non violent visit, but the threat and danger beneath it was clear.

Notice how Aegon and Visenya were never ever in one place together anymore after the letter, and always kept the heir and his spare apart. Sure, the world book and Fire and Blood speculate on Aegon and Visenya disliking one another. But it makes sense for them to not put their eggs in one basket after the letter that upset Aegon so and made him fly to Dragonstone asap to return the next morning with "war with Dorne is over, we make peace."

6 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

The point is simply that by assuming it is true, a lot of things don't require other explanations. But if you believe it COULD be true, but that it also might not be, a lot of things need different explanations.

The point is that you assume too much about the process on how I end up going with one explanation over another, how you assume that someone else than you may have taken years to make a decision of leaning towards one explanation over another. Your assumption says way more about your process than it does about mine.

44 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Freys were killed on Manderly's orders, yes, after we see him acting secretively against the Freys with Robett Glover who is of course Galbart Glover's brother.

I already pointed out that we should regard Robett Glover as acting on his own. He's been apart from Galbert and Robb since before they split at the Twins just coming south of Moat Cailin (the end of aGoT). Robett is oblivious to most of Robb's plans and Maege and Galbert: after Arya freed him with the Weasel soup at Harrenhal, he went to Duskendale to attack that on Roose's orders and never second guessed it. His rallying actions and open rebellion clamoring right after arrival in White Harbor is in line with the portrayal of Robett - honest, heart on his sleeve, brave, but not the brightest and strategic thinker. Manderly taking him under his wing with regards to Rickon has calmed him down. But I'm going with Arya's gut when it comes to secret plotting. The Freys may be stupid, but Roose isn't

53 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I think you should try reviewing your ideas on who did what, and see what ideas you come up with when you assume Theon Durden is wrong.

Right back at you. Maybe you should try to apply your own advice in the other way.

In fact I used to consider the other ideas for years prior to Theon Durden: HM as HR, Crowfood and Whoresbane meetings, Grand Northern Conspiracy. Which only loosely passes for a plot on superficial reading and impressions and especially hopes. It falls apart on deeper analysis, timeline, etc. 

On 11/2/2023 at 6:22 AM, SeanF said:

She’s being made to act out of character, in order to suit the plot.

I think it goes beyond the plot. I think it serves as evidence that she tried the peaceful road, explore it to the fullest as an option, to indeed go against her instincts and nature. One of the first things we learn about dragons is that they stop growing once inside walls, how they dislike walls and captivity. Dany's very first chapter has her whistfully wishing to be like the street children of Pentos, with the freedom to go wherever they please, even beyond the walls of Pentos. The Dothraki are a symbolic extension of this idea, and many of the dress and lifestyle suits a dragon: a city with no walls (Vaes Dothrak), leather (skin), whipping tails, bow and arrow for "firepower" and arakhs for teeth, and her silver serve as her wings (she flies across a firepit one her silver during her wedding feast). Astapor is a true dragon act - a dragon is no slave, and the crumbling dust red walls of Astapor serve as an inspiration. But against Meereen she has to go beyond her instincts in order to conquer it. She also learns the longer term results of what's happening in Astapor.

Dany looks in a mirror in her first chapter in Pentos, IRC again in Qarth in Xaro's palace, but certainly after capturing Meereen. It denotes "self-reflection", and that's when Dany decides she wants to plant trees and rule a city. In aDwD we see she sheds and avoids any and every layer of herself that is dragonlike. Not only does she wear floppy ears to blend in. The tokar is so restrictive a garment, it hampers her even walking. Little steps only. It's not just living within the walls of a city. The tokar is like a personal prison or wall, but one she chooses to wear to blend in and to prove she's not just the queen of destruction. She truly wishes to "build" something (also not Dothraki). The chaining and imprisoning of Viserion and Rhaegal is another embodiment of this idea.

So, yeah, Dany was certainly acting against her character, but it was not for plot reasons alone. It was imo as a character study, and her trying to act beyond the instinctive. And exactly because it's not really her nature and floppy ears role that she dons, she also makes choices that even a peacefully inclined person would not choose. In a way, I find that a very realistic portrayal of the mistakes made when someone tries to be someone they believe they must be that is unnatural to them. When a person does this, they tend to overdo it.

Well, upon closer inspection Bittersteel isn't entirely dishonorable. He always followed the line of succession for the Blackfyres to a t. It seems as if he didn't back Daemon II Blackfyre, but at the time Bittersteel would have been fighting for the Second Sons (and I think it's safe to assume that Bittersteel had Blackfyre with him when he fought for the Second Sons to recruit men from Westeros amongst the Second Sons to start his own Golden Company). There are reasons to believe Bittersteel wasn't too keen on Daemon II, but ultimately Bittersteel didn't crown another Blackfyre until Daemon II (captive at the Red Keep) was dead, years later. Bittersteel was married to one of Daemon's daughters and presumably would have had children with her - grandchildren of Daemon Blackfyre, via the female line.  Once Bittersteel led the Golden Company, the sword and the de facto regent of house Blackfyre, he never used this position to crown his own children, even when the next Blackfyre in line of the male line was still a babe or toddler.

Hatred for Bloodraven and Blackwoods alone cannot explain that. Nor personal honor either, since he chose to take the black after capture, but escaped before arriving at Eastwatch. It seems he truly believed the Blackfyres were the legitimate bloodline to the throne, and followed the order of birth, sons coming before daughters, grandsons before uncles.

On 11/3/2023 at 3:17 AM, Alester Florent said:

I don't like any of the "official" explanations, and I'm not fond of what seems to be the most popular fan one either (i.e. that the Dornish had identified Aenys was not Aegon's son and threatened to expose this).

The only other thing I can think of is that they had somehow come up with a reliable way of killing dragons, and threatened to unleash this unless Aegon called off his attack. His journey back to Dragonstone may have been something to do with this, to check on the eggs and hatchlings there; perhaps the Dornish even offered proof and he went to investigate.

It's still not great and leaves a lot of unanswered questions but it's also the kind of thing that could conceivably be revealed later in the story, since there are points to be addressed about both the origin of dragons and the reasons for their decline, and depending what those were, it could conceivably explain Aegon's reluctance to risk his dragons in a continued war with Dorne.

I believe the Prince of Dorne himself sailed to Dragonstone. His daughter with the letter and the dragon's bones were a decoy. All eyes were on her, and it's one of the few times that both Aegon and Visenya (and their respective dragons) are at KL. It means that Maegor (a babe back then) was left alone at Dragonstone. Sure, there were other dragons on Dragonstone, but all without a rider. Aegon and Visenya were both in KL wth their dragons for Nymor's daughter. This made Dragonstone vulnerable and an ideal location for the Prince of Dorne to pay Dragonstone a visit and entertain baby Maegor in his lap (much like Visenya once did with the Lord of the Vale).

I believe that is what the letter that Nymor's daughter handed to Aegon said (While you're reading this, I'm in Dragonstone with your son in my lap and the bones of your wife as a gift. Come see me!), and why Aegon showed signs of anger, restraint, secretiveness and self-harm. He realized he had been tricked and Visenya and Aegon fell hook, line and sinker for the decoy. That's why he flew off to Dragonstone immediately after. He met Nymor at Dragonstone, and I believe Nymor had the remains/bones of Aegon's dead wife with him. Aegon burned her on Dragonstone the same night, and a peace was agreed upon. Fire and Blood for peace.

On 11/2/2023 at 10:47 AM, Hippocras said:

The Hooded Man of course is the most direct evidence we have of a guerilla campaign, along with the deaths of the Freys in various circumstances.

I think HM is Theon Durden.

The Freys of WH were killed on Manderly's orders and put in a pie.

The only Frey killed at WF was little Walder (the meanest and largest one, and with big Walder having all the blood on him it's very much suggested he may have been involved in the death of his cousin)

One of the Ryswell brothers was found dead in the bottom of a moat, buried beneath snow (and wouldn't have been found for months even if not for Ramsay's dogs). It might have been one of Mance's spearwives, as one of them was last seen with one of them. But it also might be a brother who hopes to be rid of a potential rival to acquiring the seat of Ryswell if and when their father dies. It also might be, because he's the brother who's actually pro-Boltons whereas Barbrey and her brother may be plotting against Bolton. Or it might have been Theon Durden who killed him.

The others that are killed are Ramsay's men: men who hunt with Ramsay, guard Jeyne Poole's door or are cruel to Theon. There are once again several potential murdering candidates for those murders of those within the walls of WF: Theon, Mance's spearwives, whomever Manderly or Mance helped convince to cooperate, heck even Roose or Ramsay themselves.

Not one of them are direct evidence of Maege or Lord Glover, let alone HR, leading and taking a guerilla warfare in hands inside the walls of WF. While Manderly and Robett Glover were working together at White Harbor, Robett himself was captured by the Mountain between Duskendale and Robett's retreat to the Riverlands, then exchanged for Martyn Lannister by King Robb and put on a ship to White Harbor at Duskendale. He hasn't seen his brother since Robb marched from Moat Cailin to the Twins and split his forces between making for Riverrun and the feign battle as bait for Tywin (the battle of the green Fork). This shows in how he openly attracts attention to himself at White Harbor in rebellious talk. 

The sole hint that there is a directive to act is via Alysanne who ends up attacking the shores and woods around Deepwood Motte about the same time as Stannis does. Alysanne is the eldest sister left at Bear Island, after Maege and her firstborn Dacey left south with Robb. She would have been the one left in charge to lead Bear Island, especially since she is Maege's sole daughter with children of her own, the next generation heirs to Bear Island. And yet, it is not Alysanne who answers Stannis' letters, but her younger sister Lyanna Mormont, which is a strong indication that Alysanne had left Bear Island already before any letter of Stannis arrived. Her intention had always been to free Deepwood Motte. Alysanne having left Bear Island is quite early in the timeline, and liberating Deepwood Motte would fit in with Robb's plans when he sent Maege and Galbert away to deal with the Ironborn in the north. Galbert is the lord of Deepwood Motte, Sybelle his sister in law, and her children are his nephews and nieces, heirs after his brother Robett (who was exchanged for Martyn Lannister). So, why did Alysanne wait so long before actually executing a rescue? It didn't have anything to do with Stannis, but everything with Asha Greyjoy sailing for the kingsmoot and taking Sybella and her children along to the Iron Islands as hostages. Alysanne could have taken Deepwood Motte easily while Asha was gone, but with Galbert's ultimate heirs in Asha's hands that would have been a dumb move.

That early on, Maege nor Galbert could have been acting in the North whatsoever: Ramsay's on a rampage, the Karstarks abandoned Robb, and the Ironborn hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen Stark, and there's the claim that Arya Stark is to be Ramsay's bride and coming north alongside Roose. The sole people aware that this cannot be the real Arya Stark are the BwB and LS, who indeed end up journeying into the Neck for a short while according to witnesses, before Roose crosses the neck and while Maege, Galbert and whomever is in charge of Reed's floating castle are in the Neck. Since the Neck doesn't operate with ravens, Maege and Galbert sent instructions before sailing for the Neck, which would have been from the Mallister "port" in the Riverlands. And yes, that timing would fit Lyanna being alone at Bear Island and writing an answer to Stannis this early on in aDwD.

So, the "indirect" evidence that points to Maege's and Galbert's involvement into any combative actions in the North is Alysanne sailing from Bear Island to leave her sister and minor in charge, to leave her children and ultimate heirs of Bear Island, for the bay where the Ironborn ships are and her admittance that she was there to liberate Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn. Liberating the north of the Ironborn was Robb's intent before he died. And Alysanne as a Mormont and Deepwood Motte being the seat of Galbert fit with Maege and Galbert planning together. Notice how it does not need and shows no evidence of the involvement of any Reed. It's just that Alysanne didn't dare to execute the liberation of Deepwood Motte, while Asha had sailed away for the Iron Islands with Sybelle and her children as hostages. This certainly threw a wrench in the initial plans, delayed them, and likely caused the alteration - capture Asha Grejoy herself to force an exchange for Sybelle's children who are still hostages at the Iron Islands. Asha only returned with Sybelle to Deepwood Motte after the Kingsmoot. Hence, Alysanne becomes Asha's unofficial guard. Asha's not just Stannis' prize, but ultimately the KitN's hostage to get Sybelle's children back. This is also the reason why Sybelle dealt with Tycho Nestoris to bring Asha a gift: her crew.

George writes rebellions and campaigns in a realistic way: several factions are acting simultaneously in consideration of their own house, heirs, people and the orders and plans made upon being last seen or mentioned. There is no grand secret coordination coming from one faction alone who leads everyone else, especially as long as there is no particular Stark in charge. Just symbolically, George is not going to write any lord or lady of any house of the North - whether it's the Neck, Bear Island, White Harbor, Last Hearth, Deepwood Motte - except for one of the main Stark protagonists, be the successful leader of the whole north. Doing that would basically make the Starks a superfluous house. If Howland Reed, Maege and Galbert lead everybody else of the North in a successful rebellion against the Boltons, Stannis and the Lannisters while knowing everything, then there's no need for Staks to rule the North. And there's no way that nobody would end up blabbing and revealing Robb's plans, secrets, etc. Someone always talks and brags if too many people know of one big ambitious conspiracy plan.

No, instead, George ensures cover up and preservations of secrets, by creating several factions within the north having a similar sentiment (rebel against the Boltons and reluctance to submit to Stannis, bringing a Stark back into power, securing the freedom of hostages) but with only partial knowledge. 

• So, we have Mormonts and Glovers doing one thing west of the Neck, which is an extension of Robb's original plans and includes awareness of Robb's appointed heir, most likely Jon Snow. Alysanne had the opportunity to update Sybelle and the mountain clans after the capture of Deepwood Motte. And so, the leaders of the mountain clans show up at CB to appraise Jon Snow.
• We have Manderly and Robett concocting their own plans in the spirit of a Stark reinstallment, by sending Davos to fetch Rickon. They had the opportunity to inform Barbrey, her brother and Whoresbane, inside WF, possibly even Mance. Hence Barbrey wants to see those missing swords in the crypts herself, and potentially a Ryswell covering for Theon who is under suspicion of killing people inside WF, and is to liberate Arya (a hostage against Rickon).
• The mountains clans know that Bran and the Reeds survived, but not necessarily where he disappeared off to, and Alysanne's update about Robb's heir may have persuaded them to preserve Bran's secret. It's possible the mountain clans know Bran is a greenseer and this may be one of the reasons why they are so adamant about bringing Theon in front of a ww tree.
• Whomever is in charge in the Neck was informed by LS that Arya Stark with Roose Bolton is not the true Arya Stark. LS and BwB know the Freys were never aware that Arya was at the Twins (no Frey they hanged who confessed to their own part in the RW saw her), and they know that the boy with Sandor at the Crossroads was Arya, and that they made for Saltpans afterwards. We can safely assume LS and BwB questioned whomever they captured for the Saltpans gave similar answers as the Freys when it came to having seen a boy or girl befitting Arya's description at Saltpans. LS, Tom and several others went into the Neck before Roose crossed the Neck and questioning and hanging several Freys already.

But Alysanne and Sybelle and mountain clans do not know about Rickon or fake Arya. They might know about Bran, but likely do not. Manderly et all have no clue about Jon Snow as Robb's heir yet. The Neck is not aware of Bran and the Reeds and Rickon surviving.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No, sorry. Different passage, in fact different book.

Jojen can have green dreams later on. The later mentioned green dream in a later book therefore was not one he had when he convinced his father in the Neck to let him go to WF. In fact, his green dream of seeing the dead bodies of Bran and Rickon (or at least their surrogates) in aCoK, would negate any pursuing of the argument that he dreamed in the Neck that the wolves would come again.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Jojen dreamt the crow needing him and his sister to break chains and take the wingwolf beyond the wall, so there's no role for their father to play, because they got it covered 

No, I repeat again that is not exactly what Jojen dreamt. Jojen as a green dreamer, dreamt a dream of a chained winged wolf and the crow trying to break those chains but unable to do it himself. It is implied that the crow asks for help, but the dream does not indicate that Jojen is the one who must break those chains, or that his sister must do it, let alone that they need to take Bran beyond the Wall. In fact, that Jojen admits that he was not sure who the winged wolf was upon arrival contradicts your piling on certainty into a dream that does not say what you turned it into.

As far as Jojen, Meera and Howland Reed know in the Neck when Jojen reveals his green dream about the winged wolf is that the "help" that the crow may require is just Jojen being a messenger who informs the right people about his dream. After all, that is basically what the Ghost of High Heart does. She has green dreams, and shares them with the people who visit her hill.

I'm sorry, but you make the mistake of conflating certain later dreams and actions and choices into one, while forgetting and excluding other dreams and statements by Jojen at Winterfell that contradict this.

The facts point to uncertainty

• the winged wolf dream does not say who the winged wolf is, why or how the wolf is chained, and how or who is to help the crow
• Jojen was not sure who the winged wolf was initially, not even upon arrival at WF. Jojen only became sure after he was at WF for weeks already, figuring out that Bran was a warg and a greenseer and that the maester and Bran himself blocked Bran from accepting and using his talents.

So, no your assertions are denied by the text

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Jojen dreamed of a liberated north and dreamed of breaking the ww's chains. So even if Bran was not the correct option then HR would know his kids would continue their journey and free Sansa. Right? Jojen didnt dream of his dad breaking chains. 

Jojen didn't dream of liberating the north or succesfully breaking the chains. He dreamed about a winged wolf who was chained and a crow unable to liberate the winged wolf himself, and requiring help.

Quote

"I dreamed of a winged wolf bound to earth with grey stone chains," he said. "It was a green dream, so I knew it was true. A crow was trying to peck through the chains, but the stone was too hard and his beak could only chip at them."

His dream does not describe whether he can be liberated or who will liberate him. Where do you see in the above description of the dream that Jojen is the liberator and that the liberation will succeed?