Do you think Stannis will achieve a Pyrrhic victory in the Battle of Ice?

[Dread Stark]

Stannis is not returning north to the wall anytime soon. Even if he has a glorious victory against the Frey's, and Manderley turns to his side, he is still outside Winterfell, X days out. Winter has come, his host is on the verge of starving, they went for broke marching south away from the Wall, how do you purpose he is going to be able to take his would be battle-weary host, which has no food stores of its own, nor horse, nor means of going back into the thick of the storm they've been struggling through?

Nor is he going to be able to move south past the Twins towards Kingslanding even if/when he takes Winterfell, unless something happens in the Riverlands to open up the gates for him. There are still Lannister/Frey's there, and again his host will be set back from fatigue/lack of supplies or means to make any tactical march.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

But then what about Patchface's prophecy. I've mentioned it here in full detail Patchface's sea prophecy, it irks me the most.

[Iona]

Could you please name the chapter. I had forgotten about Selyse. :laugh:

At least Jon's chapter 53 has this piece of Selyse magic:

“I see you have considered all this carefully, Lord Snow. I am sure King Stannis will be pleased when he returns triumphant from his battle.”

Assuming he returns at all. “Of course,” the queen went on, “the wildlings must first acknowledge Stannis as their king and R’hllor as their god.”

And here we are, face-to-face in the narrow passage. “Your Grace, forgive me. Those were not the terms that we agreed to.”

The queen’s face hardened. “A grievous oversight.” What faint traces of warmth her voice had held vanished all at once.

“Free folk do not kneel,” Val told her. “Then they must be knelt,” the queen declared. “Do that, Your Grace, and we will rise again at the first chance,” Val promised. “Rise with blades in hand.”

The queen’s lips tightened, and her chin gave a small quiver. “You are insolent. I suppose that is only to be expected of a wildling. We must find you a husband who can teach you courtesy.” The queen turned her glare on Jon. “I do not approve, Lord Commander. Nor will my lord husband. I cannot prevent you from opening your gate, as we both know full well, but I promise you that you shall answer for it when the king returns from battle. Mayhaps you might want to reconsider.”

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

-Relevant Quote-

Cheers :cheers: .

[aryagonnakill#2]

At least Jon's chapter 53 has this piece of Selyse magic:

“I see you have considered all this carefully, Lord Snow. I am sure King Stannis will be pleased when he returns triumphant from his battle.”

Assuming he returns at all. “Of course,” the queen went on, “the wildlings must first acknowledge Stannis as their king and R’hllor as their god.”

And here we are, face-to-face in the narrow passage. “Your Grace, forgive me. Those were not the terms that we agreed to.”

The queen’s face hardened. “A grievous oversight.” What faint traces of warmth her voice had held vanished all at once.

“Free folk do not kneel,” Val told her. “Then they must be knelt,” the queen declared. “Do that, Your Grace, and we will rise again at the first chance,” Val promised. “Rise with blades in hand.”

The queen’s lips tightened, and her chin gave a small quiver. “You are insolent. I suppose that is only to be expected of a wildling. We must find you a husband who can teach you courtesy.” The queen turned her glare on Jon. “I do not approve, Lord Commander. Nor will my lord husband. I cannot prevent you from opening your gate, as we both know full well, but I promise you that you shall answer for it when the king returns from battle. Mayhaps you might want to reconsider.”

How is this magic? I see only idiocy.

[Iona]

How is this magic? I see only idiocy.

Edited, since I'm seriously slowborn.

Just gave an example relating to whether Stannis will be coming back to the Wall after he's done with the Bolton. The "Selyse Magic" is just a pinch of sarcasm. I've quoted her on other threads as well in answer to some questions, with the disclaimer that what she actually thinks might not be in any way or shape realistic.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^ O ok. I thought you were suggesting that they were fire visions.

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

We keep on hearing of how great of a tactician Stannis is, but it seems the red woman wins all his battles.

This upcoming battle will decide if GRRM built this mystique around Stannis to lead us astray or if he is truly a great battlefield commander and can decimate an army lead by a weak commander (Ser Hosteen).

The outcome will be decisive. Either the Freys fall into the frozen lake and are overrun by Manderly heavy cav.

OR

The Freys win, kill Stannis, capture Lightbringer and deliver it to the Boltons.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

We keep on hearing of how great of a tactician Stannis is, but it seems the red woman wins all his battles.

This upcoming battle will decide if GRRM built this mystique around Stannis to lead us astray or if he is truly a great battlefield commander and can decimate an army lead by a weak commander (Ser Hosteen).

The outcome will be decisive. Either the Freys fall into the frozen lake and are overrun by Manderly heavy cav.

OR

The Freys win, kill Stannis, capture Lightbringer and deliver it to the Boltons.

Where was Mel at Storms End, Dragonstone, Fair Isle, Great Wyk or Deepwood Motte? Even at the Wall her tactical input is very questionable.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

We keep on hearing of how great of a tactician Stannis is, but it seems the red woman wins all his battles.

This upcoming battle will decide if GRRM built this mystique around Stannis to lead us astray or if he is truly a great battlefield commander and can decimate an army lead by a weak commander (Ser Hosteen).

The outcome will be decisive. Either the Freys fall into the frozen lake and are overrun by Manderly heavy cav.

OR

The Freys win, kill Stannis, capture Lightbringer and deliver it to the Boltons.

Go read it here, much better explanation.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Go read it here, much better explanation.

It cuts Stannis's successes short, by the way. Especially the battle at the Wall was way more difficult (twice as many Wildlings as the author said + noncombantants en masse) and the awing details in Stannis' battleplan are glossed over.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

It cuts Stannis's successes short, by the way. Especially the battle at the Wall was way more difficult (twice as many Wildlings as the author said + noncombantants en masse) and the awing details in Stannis' battleplan are glossed over.

Have we been given an exact no.of wildlings combanants, i know about that there were 20000 wildlings, but were they all armed or are non-combatants included in that number.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Have we been given an exact no.of wildlings combanants, i know about that there were 20000 wildlings, but were they all armed or are non-combatants included in that number.

It was ~100,000 wildlings to start with, noncombatants included. But the telling point is that Stannis himself said "I beat Mance Rayder at the Wall despite him having twenty times my numbers" (paraphrased) in the Theon gift chapter. This essay says ten times, without any source.

[The Drunkard]

We keep on hearing of how great of a tactician Stannis is, but it seems the red woman wins all his battles.

She has participated in only one of his battles, where her input began and ended at destroying a scout after Stannis' attack had already begun. Shooting a bird out of the sky with fire is impressive, yes, but it's more an act of style over substance in this case. Every other victory he has achieved has been the result of himself and his other advisers, not her.

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

Guys, I like Stannis too and I hope he mops the floor with the Freys, but he has hardly been involved in a Battle of the Belles or Battle of the Green Fork type battle, where he goes up against another army straight up who has a competent commander.

I don't think of Ser Hosteen as competent, which is why I think it will be a decisive Stannis win, not pyrrhic.

When I was writing about Mel's victorys for him, I was referring to defeating Renly w/o losing a single man and taking Storms End w/o losing a single man. She wasn't at the Battle of the Blackwater and it was an epic fail.

P.s. nice Stannis write up, I like the read. The write up on how the ice battle will occur is just as good and worth the read.

[fehler]

Stannis commanded the Royal Fleet during the Greyjoy Rebellion and defeated Victarion Greyjoy at the Battle of Fair Isle. Admittedly that's comparing army to navy, but he is a noted, competent commander of forces.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Stannis commanded the Royal Fleet during the Greyjoy Rebellion and defeated Victarion Greyjoy at the Battle of Fair Isle. Admittedly that's comparing army to navy, but he is a noted, competent commander of forces.

Not to mention subduing of Great Wyk and Amphibious assault on DS

[aryagonnakill#2]

Not to mention subduing of Great Wyk and Amphibious assault on DS

An amphibious assault implies troops waiting on the beach, even in the case of Stannis's man holding it against Loras(if that is indeed what happened) they still said that they were camped on dragonstone and that the defenders were behind the walls. When Stannis took Dragonstone he only showed up, after the Targs had fled Dragonstone capitulated without a fight.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

An amphibious assault implies troops waiting on the beach, even in the case of Stannis's man holding it against Loras(if that is indeed what happened) they still said that they were camped on dragonstone and that the defenders were behind the walls. When Stannis took Dragonstone he only showed up, after the Targs had fled Dragonstone capitulated without a fight.

I never asked for Dragonstone. I never wanted it. I took it because Robert’s enemies were here and he commanded me to root them out. I built his fleet and did his work, dutifully as a younger brother should be to an elder, as Renly should be to me. And what was Robert’s thanks? He names me Lord of Dragonstone, and gives Storm's End and its incomes to Renly. Storm’s End belonged to the House Baratheon for three hundred years; by rights it should have passed to me when Robert took the Iron Throne. - A Clash of Kings, Prologue.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I never asked for Dragonstone. I never wanted it. I took it because Robert’s enemies were here and he commanded me to root them out. I built his fleet and did his work, dutifully as a younger brother should be to an elder, as Renly should be to me. And what was Robert’s thanks? He names me Lord of Dragonstone, and gives Storm's End and its incomes to Renly. Storm’s End belonged to the House Baratheon for three hundred years; by rights it should have passed to me when Robert took the Iron Throne. - A Clash of Kings, Prologue.

I see no evidence of a battle... I find it extremely unlikely 1 took place, Dary took Dany and Viserys away when he was afraid the garrison would hand them over to the usurper, if they weren't even there anymore and were the last holdout it just seems unlikely a battle would have taken place. and damn how the hell did you post that so quickly!?!?!