How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?

[RoamingRonin]

Have you considered your attitude self-centered?

I very much understand the concept of a protective double, thank you, I just don't think it applies in this case, I don't the royal family is going to let their intelligence gatherer get a hold of the prince and her and swap him, if they thought the Lannisters were a threat they'd have made a move for Elia and both of her kids, along with a pack of bodyguards, to get out of Dodge.

If only the "royal family" was in on it. We know Aerys wasn't because he wanted Elia and her children close at hand in case Dorne switched sides. Meaning they were hostages and expendable. Elia could have been. It wasn't the Lannisters Aerys saw as a threat but the rebel forces.

[sleath56]

Have you considered your attitude self-centered?

I very much understand the concept of a protective double, thank you, I just don't think it applies in this case, I don't the royal family is going to let their intelligence gatherer get a hold of the prince and her and swap him, if they thought the Lannisters were a threat they'd have made a move for Elia and both of her kids, along with a pack of bodyguards, to get out of Dodge.

Also, it's easy to get a hold of a Targ looking baby in general, it's not so easy in King's Landing in the time when you think you'll need one. which is when you realize the Lannisters mean harm. Afterwards, and in Essos, it's no big deal, which is exactly what I think happened, either it's Ilyrio's kid or just a child they got a hold of to put a chess piece on the board. Yet again, I think the swap is a fanciful and romantic idea cooked up afterwards to take advantage of the situation.

I admit: I can be self-centered when I want. Don't try to deflect my comments, however.

As I said, the answers to all of your doubts have already been repeated to death on the previous pages, and contrary to your comment previously: they are not just all spam and filler posts made as we wait for you to come to enlighten us with your original and convincing arguments.

As I said before: I encourage that you skim through them. I guarantee that you will have a greater acceptance of how this theory is possible if you do.

On to your rebuttal:

I doubt the Royal Family is in any position to stop Varys or be able to initiate their own swap. At the time, Rhaegar is dead on the Trident, and Aerys is no longer capable of rationality. Elia and Rhaella could have however, but they didn't.

For your second point:

As you said, Varys is THE SPYMASTER of a continent sized kingdom. He will most certainly be able to put his vast resources to finding a Valyrian child in a city of half a million people.

[tydides]

if gregor failed, he or his little birds would see to it. Also, I'm pretty sure Varys has a great grasp of people and what they will do in the 7K.

[sleath56]

if gregor failed, he or his little birds would see to it. Also, I'm pretty sure Varys has a great grasp of people and what they will do in the 7K.

Gregor killing Aegon in the way he did was only a bonus. The main goal was just to get Aegon to safety.

[The Dragon King]

I admit: I can be self-centered when I want. Don't try to deflect my comments, however.

As I said, the answers to all of your doubts have already been repeated to death on the previous pages, and contrary to your comment previously: they are not just all spam and filler posts made as we wait for you to come to enlighten us with your original and convincing arguments.

As I said before: I encourage that you skim through them. I guarantee that you will have a greater acceptance of how this theory is possible if you do.

On to your rebuttal:

I doubt the Royal Family is in any position to stop Varys or be able to initiate their own swap. At the time, Rhaegar is dead on the Trident, and Aerys is no longer capable of rationality. Elia and Rhaella could have however, but they didn't.

For your second point:

As you said, Varys is THE SPYMASTER of a continent sized kingdom. He will most certainly be able to put his vast resources to finding a Valyrian child in a city of half a million people.

There were very likely guards around the royal family that were specifically selected for their loyalty, the intelligence gatherer doesn't simply grab the heir without the consent of Elia, and I don't see any mother giving up her son. If she thinks there in enough danger to warrant a double I see them all leaving for Dorne.

As for the second part, in the short time between when Varys thinks the Lannisters mean harm and when they storm the city, he has to locate a very distinctive looking child assuming one even exists in the city which is in lock-down, who also has to be similar enough to the prince and heir in order for no one in Robert's camp to suspect something's fishy, and then substitute the child in place of the heir, who will be forcibly removed from his mother, without anyone in the palace guard knowing, and if they do know of it they wouldn't have spoken about it even thought it probabaly meant a nice reward from King Robert, who would have lo loved to have gotten hold of that info.

Nope it smells like BS to me but I'm sure it smelt like redemption to Jon Connington, who kinda allowed his best friend to get killed by failing to crush the rebellion when he could have, and I'm sure it sounds great to Young Griff, what teenager wouldn't believe that they're actually the heir to a rich kingdom which was stolen from their family by a bunch of savage traitors.

[sleath56]

There were very likely guards around the royal family that were specifically selected for their loyalty, the intelligence gatherer doesn't simply grab the heir without the consent of Elia, and I don't see any mother giving up her son. If she thinks there in enough danger to warrant a double I see them all leaving for Dorne.

As for the second part, in the short time between when Varys thinks the Lannisters mean harm and when they storm the city, he has to locate a very distinctive looking child assuming one even exists in the city which is in lock-down, who also has to be similar enough to the prince and heir in order for no one in Robert's camp to suspect something's fishy, and then substitute the child in place of the heir, who will be forcibly removed from his mother, without anyone in the palace guard knowing, and if they do know of it they wouldn't have spoken about it even thought it probabaly meant a nice reward from King Robert, who would have lo loved to have gotten hold of that info.

Nope it smells like BS to me but I'm sure it smelt like redemption to Jon Connington, who kinda allowed his best friend to get killed by failing to crush the rebellion when he could have, and I'm sure it sounds great to Young Griff, what teenager wouldn't believe that they're actually the heir to a rich kingdom which was stolen from their family by a bunch of savage traitors.

Have you seen a baby before? They all look very similar, especially when they still have not fully developed hair.

It will be EXTREMELY EASY for someone like Varys to get a similar looking Valyrian baby to replace Aegon.

It also seems you have no idea what the Pisswater Prince theory is about: The mother had died in childbirth.

As I said: If you would actually just at least skim through the previous pages...

[Cubarey]

"There were very likely guards around the royal family that were specifically selected for their loyalty, the intelligence gatherer doesn't simply grab the heir without the consent of Elia, and I don't see any mother giving up her son. If she thinks there in enough danger to warrant a double I see them all leaving for Dorne.

As for the second part, in the short time between when Varys thinks the Lannisters mean harm and when they storm the city, he has to locate a very distinctive looking child assuming one even exists in the city which is in lock-down, who also has to be similar enough to the prince and heir in order for no one in Robert's camp to suspect something's fishy, and then substitute the child in place of the heir, who will be forcibly removed from his mother, without anyone in the palace guard knowing, and if they do know of it they wouldn't have spoken about it even thought it probabaly meant a nice reward from King Robert, who would have lo loved to have gotten hold of that info.

Nope it smells like BS to me but I'm sure it smelt like redemption to Jon Connington, who kinda allowed his best friend to get killed by failing to crush the rebellion when he could have, and I'm sure it sounds great to Young Griff, what teenager wouldn't believe that they're actually the heir to a rich kingdom which was stolen from their family by a bunch of savage traitors. "

First I am new to the boards, so here goes.

1. Elia was probably quite aware of the danger, her husband was dead. The king was mad. And she had to know there was an army on its way. It would not take a very astute person to believe that she and her children would be killed by the Usurpers army. Likewise she could easily be convinced that the Mad King would never let her leave with her children (after all he had already guaranteed his lineage by having his pregnant wife and young son taken to safety). It would thus not be to difficult for Varys to convince her that only one of them could be safely evacuated and that the "heir" was the logical source.

2. Once Varys hears that Rhaegor has been killed in the Trident he would know that the dynasty was bound to fall and that if captured Elia and the Children would be killed. So he had from the moment he heard of the Prince's death not just from when the Lannister's show up outside the wall in which to find a double for the little Prince and convince Elia.

Also anyone ever consider the similarities in how Egg was partially raised by the Hedge Knight and how Aegon was raised by Connington?

[Cubarey]

I know this is going way back but:

on the grounds that the real Prince Aegon had dark hair like his Dornish mother, not silver hair like his Targaryen father... and Tyrion is one of the few people who bothers to remember important details like that from twenty years ago."

How would Tyrion know? He was never in the Capital City prior to the civil war and would not have been brought along when his father decided to jump off the fence in the civil war.

[The Fresh PtwP]

He probably didn't. I would bet any amount of money that instead of Gregor if say Lannister soldier #6732 found (F)aegon and didn't maim him, Varys would've popped out of some secret door and done it himself. I don't consider something like this to be a hitch in the plan for someone like Varys.

[Tree in the North]

With his +10 modifier on casting and his trademark spell Suspension-of-Disbelief.

He likely didn't. People attribute an insane amount of foresight and control to Varys.

The whole baby-swap, prince-in-hiding thing is so incredulous that I have to believe Faegon theories. Not necessarily because I think they're correct, but just because Aegon actually being Aegon would be so ridiculous it might ruin the series for me.

[sleath56]

With his +10 modifier on casting and his trademark spell Suspension-of-Disbelief.

He likely didn't. People attribute an insane amount of foresight and control to Varys.

The whole baby-swap, prince-in-hiding thing is so incredulous that I have to believe Faegon theories. Not necessarily because I think they're correct, but just because Aegon actually being Aegon would be so ridiculous it might ruin the series for me.

B-but, didn't we just go through a whole 8 pages summarizing how exactly he could have done this swap?

[sertravisredbeard]

Varys might not have counted on that at all. In the chaos of the sack, it probably would have been a while before anyone thought to check that the kid was the right one, even if it lived. TPATQ gives an example of how easily and quickly a child can be smuggled out of the Red Keep at the first sign of trouble.

If anyone noticed that Aegon was a different kid, even Varys could play stupid, and act just as surprised and outraged about the switch. He didn't know which knight was going to break through the defenses. He just got lucky that it was a vicious idiot like Gregor who thought it was a great idea to bash an infant against a wall until it was unrecognizable. Then he didn't even really have to worry about anyone coming after the kid he'd smuggled away.

[Dorian Martell]

Varys was expecting the wildfire plot to work. If not for Jaime, the KL would certainly be burned and the corpses would be unrecognizable. That would be more persuasive than red pulp alternative but it didnot happen. Thanks to Gregor, they at least have the red pulp.

/\THIS/\

The master of whispers was expecting the whole city to burn. He was expecting a massacre of fire like Dresden, Tokyo or Pompeii if not for the king(and hand)slayer. The fact that Gregor turned the boys head into a burst melon just made the plan go smooth.

[The Dragon King]

I know this is going way back but:

on the grounds that the real Prince Aegon had dark hair like his Dornish mother, not silver hair like his Targaryen father... and Tyrion is one of the few people who bothers to remember important details like that from twenty years ago."

How would Tyrion know? He was never in the Capital City prior to the civil war and would not have been brought along when his father decided to jump off the fence in the civil war.

Are you sure about this? I remember the exact opposite, that Aegon looked like Rhaegar and his daughter looked like Elia, though I could be wrong.

[sleath56]

Are you sure about this? I remember the exact opposite, that Aegon looked like Rhaegar and his daughter looked like Elia, though I could be wrong.

You are right about Rhaenys having a Dornish look, which is the reason they couldn't have swapped her as well.

Aegon presumably had the Valyrian looks however.

[The Dragon King]

"There were very likely guards around the royal family that were specifically selected for their loyalty, the intelligence gatherer doesn't simply grab the heir without the consent of Elia, and I don't see any mother giving up her son. If she thinks there in enough danger to warrant a double I see them all leaving for Dorne.

As for the second part, in the short time between when Varys thinks the Lannisters mean harm and when they storm the city, he has to locate a very distinctive looking child assuming one even exists in the city which is in lock-down, who also has to be similar enough to the prince and heir in order for no one in Robert's camp to suspect something's fishy, and then substitute the child in place of the heir, who will be forcibly removed from his mother, without anyone in the palace guard knowing, and if they do know of it they wouldn't have spoken about it even thought it probabaly meant a nice reward from King Robert, who would have lo loved to have gotten hold of that info.

Nope it smells like BS to me but I'm sure it smelt like redemption to Jon Connington, who kinda allowed his best friend to get killed by failing to crush the rebellion when he could have, and I'm sure it sounds great to Young Griff, what teenager wouldn't believe that they're actually the heir to a rich kingdom which was stolen from their family by a bunch of savage traitors. "

First I am new to the boards, so here goes.

1. Elia was probably quite aware of the danger, her husband was dead. The king was mad. And she had to know there was an army on its way. It would not take a very astute person to believe that she and her children would be killed by the Usurpers army. Likewise she could easily be convinced that the Mad King would never let her leave with her children (after all he had already guaranteed his lineage by having his pregnant wife and young son taken to safety). It would thus not be to difficult for Varys to convince her that only one of them could be safely evacuated and that the "heir" was the logical source.

2. Once Varys hears that Rhaegor has been killed in the Trident he would know that the dynasty was bound to fall and that if captured Elia and the Children would be killed. So he had from the moment he heard of the Prince's death not just from when the Lannister's show up outside the wall in which to find a double for the little Prince and convince Elia.

Also anyone ever consider the similarities in how Egg was partially raised by the Hedge Knight and how Aegon was raised by Connington?

First off, welcome to the forum!

I don't see any mother giving up a child of hers in a type of swap. Varys could throw all the logic he wants at her but I don't see that doing anything, people are emotional and mothers are especially emotional about their children, if there's enough danger to get Aegon away I don't see any way she doesn't have both her kids brought away with a close family member.

[The Dragon King]

You are right about Rhaenys having a Dornish look, which is the reason they couldn't have swapped her as well.

Aegon presumably had the Valyrian looks however.

Dornish looking children are a lot easier to come by than Valyrian looking kids, she'd be easier to swap.

[sleath56]

Dornish looking children are a lot easier to come by than Valyrian looking kids, she'd be easier to swap.

Oops, I forgot to mention that she was also older. She was 4-6 at the time, and had grown distinctive features. Swapping her would compromise Aegon's safety as more people know what she exactly looks like and leaving her adds credibility for Aegon's double as if Rhaenys was real, no one would be inclined to think hard if or if not the baby fAegon (see what I did there?) was or was not the real prince.

[Lord Varys]

If Varys did it, he may have offered Elia the swap during the Sack of King's Landing. All he needed to do was to convince her that Tywin or Robert would kill him for sure.

Varys could not know how Aegon would die, but my best guess would be that if he swapped the babies he did not yet have cooked an Aegon plan. The priority back then may have been just to hide the next. After Rhaegar's death Aegon was next in line to the Iron Throne, and he was much more in danger of being killed by Robert than Rhaenys was. I'm pretty sure that Robert would have spared Rhaenys' life, either to send her to the Silent Sisters or keep her alive to marry her to his son.

[sleath56]

If Varys did it, he may have offered Elia the swap during the Sack of King's Landing. All he needed to do was to convince her that Tywin or Robert would kill him for sure.

Varys could not know how Aegon would die, but my best guess would be that if he swapped the babies he did not yet have cooked an Aegon plan. The priority back then may have been just to hide the next. After Rhaegar's death Aegon was next in line to the Iron Throne, and he was much more in danger of being killed by Robert than Rhaenys was. I'm pretty sure that Robert would have spared Rhaenys' life, either to send her to the Silent Sisters or keep her alive to marry her to his son.

He thought the entire city was going to die from the wildfire.