How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?

[MegaAIP]

We are talking a cude system here. So it's not like the have DNA testing to say hey make sure this is really Aegon.

He was a baby and all babys look somewhat the same. Heck they switched Ayra in the north and the age difference of her and Jayne and all and most of those people bought it.

[The Abominable SnowOther]

why should Varys even bother switching the babies in the first place? it hadn't been that long since Aegon was born, Varys could simply let the child die and replace him with someone who had Targ features sometime in the future. Thats way more simple and more his style so he probably didnt give a crap what Gregor did to baby Aegon since he also knew that he would have to die if Robert was cement him claim on the IT

[sleath56]

why should Varys even bother switching the babies in the first place? it hadn't been that long since Aegon was born, Varys could simply let the child die and replace him with someone who had Targ features sometime in the future. Thats way more simple and more his style so he probably didnt give a crap what Gregor did to baby Aegon since he also knew that he would have to die if Robert was cement him claim on the IT

Because that isn't the point of this topic. The question was "Is the Pisswater Prince possible?", to which the answer is yes.

[Faint]

The obvious answer is that Varys hadn't even thought of this at the time since the plot to use a fake Aegon wasn't even hatched yet. In case somebody hasn't noticed yet, and as Tyrion himself hints at, Aegon "Targaryen" is probably several years younger than the real Aegon Targaryen VI should be.

[sleath56]

The obvious answer is that Varys hadn't even thought of this at the time since the plot to use a fake Aegon wasn't even hatched yet. In case somebody hasn't noticed yet, and as Tyrion himself hints at, Aegon "Targaryen" is probably several years younger than the real Aegon Targaryen VI should be.

I never knew Tyrion was a walking age-exacto meter, though you might have found out what is wrong with your theory if you only read the previous page.

[The Abominable SnowOther]

Because that isn't the point of this topic. The question was "Is the Pisswater Prince possible?", to which the answer is yes.

okay, i get your point but theirs a shit load of different ways for that theory to be possible. And Varys even considering any sort of scheme pertaining to the IT throne and the "Pisswater Prince"do have to do with this post, thank you very much.

please come again!!!

[Ser Lady Stark Martell]

I don't really think he was counting on it. Babies are not that hard to swap. Gregor's violent behavior just served to further benefit Varys' plan.

I personally don't see why so many people doubt that Aegon is really Aegon, I didn't think it could be a lie while reading it and then when I read this theory he's fAegon i was very surprised. I don't think the body swap is something unrealistic, impossible or flawed. But other people seem to think so, so I can only sit back and wait for the next books and the possible answer.

[RumHam]

The story makes sense. Whether or not it happened is another matter.

Exactly. I think a lot of us lean towards the Aegon is fake or a Blackfyre theory. That doesn't mean Vary's cover story about switching babies is implausible, or relied on Gregor smashing Aegon's head in.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Like Viserys and Daenerys were searched for when they got away?

Why did Larys not use decoys for Jaehaera and Maelor Targaryen when he smuggled them out? Missing children will be searched for, right?

You're also basically admitting that Varys was feeding Kevan a line of shit. Either the swap worked well and no one was looking for Aegon because they thought he was dead, or else Varys is lying to Kevan about Aegon "knowing what it's like to be hunted." They can't both be true.

It stretches credulity to think that the Lannisters didn't make damn sure who they had killed before they took the risk of showing Robert the bodies. If they presented the corpse of a fake and were eventually caught, which was always going to be a possibility if the switch happened, it would make them look stupid or even as if they had abetted it.

Robert wanted to send people after Viserys and Dany, but Jon Arryn convinced him no to do it. Varys could not have known that Jon Arryn would have been able to convince Robert not to hunt Viserys and Dany, nor could he have known that Jon Arryn would not agree to the hunt.

But there is a difference. Viserys and Dany are Aerys' children, not Rhaegars. Robert hated Rhaegar to extreme lengths. He would not have been able to not hunt Rhaegar's son, should he have learned that Aegon had gotten away.

What Varys is saying to Kevan doesn't have to be BS. Varys' statement of "Aegon knows what it's like being hunted" doesn't have to reflect on his enemies. It could easily have been part of his training. He was also thought what it was like to be poor and hungry, remember?

I agree that it is possible that Tywin hadn't had the bodies checked yet before presenting the bodies to Robert, though Robert was advancing on the city more slowly, due to his wounds on the Trident, so Tywin would most likely have had enough time to have it done.

Actually, seeing as Pycelle is one of Cersei's biggest enablers and Cersei is incompetent, it should have made more sense for Varys to keep him alive, if instability was really his goal. Pycelle was kept because he was a Lannister toadie, not because he was especially competent.

Pycelle was Tywin's man more than he was Cersei's. And Pycelle was actively trying to undo what Cersei had done, when he died. Pycelle was creating stability, Varys said it so himself. Leaving Pycelle alive would leave the possibility open for Pycelle to swear loyalty to Mace, in exchange for testifying against Cersei.

I'm not talking about Pycelle naming Aegon a fraud now, so much as I am talking about Pycelle being able to have identified the real Aegon's dead body then. If Pycelle was able to verify the body -- and like I said, it beggars belief that Tywin didn't make absolutely sure who they had killed before presenting the bodies to Robert -- then it follows that this Aegon must be a fake. Pycelle would be the one to say, "I looked at the bodies back then and saw that Aegon had XYZ marks/whatever on the body, I know it was Aegon who was killed. This kid cannot be Aegon." Pycelle didn't have to look at Young Griff for a specific birthmark; all he had to say was that the baby whose body he examined had the birthmark, so he was Aegon.

If Pycelle had identified Aegon's body as fake, he could have been too scared to tell, yet it would indeed be more likely that he'd at least have told Tywin.

But this argument of yours rests on the fact that Pycelle would know every single birth mark of Aegon by heart. We don't know if he did. There were multiple maesters. Surely Pycelle would have been present at the birth, and examined Aegon that day, but there is absolutely no indication that Pycelle examined Aegon so often that he'd remember every single birth mark on the baby's body.

I was actually answering the question posed in the subject, which was, "How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp?" Why did you think I was asking about the kids' appearance? I'm well aware that GRRM has verified what they looked like, thanks.

I didn't know why you would ask it. I already found it strange. :) But since that sentence of yours came directly after my post on GRRM confirming the descriptions of the children, I concluded so.

I'd also be curious to see what you make of, say, the Arbor gold payment ("lies and Arbor gold") or the dragon sign on the Quiet Isle. There's plenty of subtle thematic clues to suggest that Aegon is a fraud, whether or not you think the switch makes sense.

I'm not all that sure on the "Lies and Arbor gold" thing. But I do know this: Aegon's identity (probably along with "who is Jon's mother?") is one of the biggest mysteries that GRRM has provided us with in the books. And for Jon, there are several theories in existence. GRRM has provided several evidences, though more for one theory than all the others.

The same goes for Aegon's identity, though here, the evidence seems to be more 50-50 (perhaps because we still have 2 books to go). If GRRM didn't provide hints for both sides, it wouldn't really be a mystery. :)

[RumHam]

I agree that it is possible that Tywin hadn't had the bodies checked yet before presenting the bodies to Robert, though Robert was advancing on the city more slowly, due to his wounds on the Trident, so Tywin would most likely have had enough time to have it done.

Time may have been a factor, but more than that I think there would be just no reason to check. You find a baby in Elia's chambers with her and Rhaenys, you just assume it's her baby. Martin has told us that Aegon had Targaryen looks but it's likely none of the rebels would have known that. I'm not even sure he was old enough to have hair. It's possible he "looked more like a Targaryen (than his sister)" and still did not have the purple eyes. Even if Tywin had doubts in the back of his mind it makes a lot more sense to not question the child's identity and let word go out that Aegon was killed.

Even if Pycelle had spoken up, Varys still would have achieved his goal of saving Aegon. It might actually be better for his cause if people heard rumors that Aegon might not have been killed in the sack.

Of course I still think Varys probably made it up after the fact and Aegon is fake.

[The Dragon King]

Varys is lying, the swap story was cooked up after the fact to give legitimacy to Young Griff.

[sleath56]

Varys is lying, the swap story was cooked up after the fact to give legitimacy to Young Griff.

For you:

Table8: Obviously you are right. The past 6 pages were all uneducated spam, after all, and I feel like I need to thank you for finally bringing some extensive and impartial descriptive rationality to this subject. We can finally /thread now.

[The Dragon King]

For you:

Just because people write a lot about something doesn't make it so.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

We are talking a cude system here. So it's not like the have DNA testing to say hey make sure this is really Aegon.

He was a baby and all babys look somewhat the same. Heck they switched Ayra in the north and the age difference of her and Jayne and all and most of those people bought it.

But that's the thing, they didn't buy it. Everyone at Winterfell knew it wasn't really Arya, they were going along for expediency.

I didn't know why you would ask it. I already found it strange. :) But since that sentence of yours came directly after my post on GRRM confirming the descriptions of the children, I concluded so.

Pro tip: If I'm responding directly to someone, I'll quote them. If I'm not quoting you, don't assume I'm responding to you.

[Edd Tollett's One Vote]

The strange thing about the swap is that Varys says that the boy he used was Pisswater. I'm just not sure if this proves he's lying or telling the truth. On one hand, if he's lying then why doesn't he claim to have gotten the baby from somewhere more known for its 'targ' characteristics? But if he is telling the truth, then how did he manage to find a 'targ'ish (yes I know it didn't need to look exactly like him but the right hair and eyes might be necessary) baby in pisswater?
And if you say that Varys knew about Aerys plan with the wildfyre, then it suddenly calls into question why he didn't save Rhaenys as well. I mean, a burnt three year old looks like another burnt three year old, right?

[RoamingRonin]

And if you say that Varys knew about Aerys plan with the wildfyre, then it suddenly calls into question why he didn't save Rhaenys as well. I mean, a burnt three year old looks like another burnt three year old, right?

No, it doesn't. If he didn't save Rhaenys then it's safe to assume he never intended to.

The strange thing about the swap is that Varys says that the boy he used was Pisswater. I'm just not sure if this proves he's lying or telling the truth. On one hand, if he's lying then why doesn't he claim to have gotten the baby from somewhere more known for its 'targ' characteristics? But if he is telling the truth, then how did he manage to find a 'targ'ish (yes I know it didn't need to look exactly like him but the right hair and eyes might be necessary) baby in pisswater?

I assume it's because the location is within close proximity to the Red Keep. He could find a child quickly and easily. It's not difficult to believe there might be one or more babes with Valyrian features living in the shadow of the Red Keep.

Just because people write a lot about something doesn't make it so.

Who is saying it's so? We are discussing the logistics.

[The Dragon King]

Who is saying it's so? We are discussing the logistics.

As am I. It's completely feasible that a Lannister soldier just smothered young Aegon or maybe just slit his throat, but Varys goes through all that trouble to find a Targ looking baby with a dad who is willing to sell him because he knows The Mountain will leave him so distorted to be unrecognisable? That's a bit too much for me to swallow. Throw in Tyrion's observation that he's too young, which is really just a hint from GRRM, and I think that spells it out.

[sleath56]

As am I. It's completely feasible that a Lannister soldier just smothered young Aegon or maybe just slit his throat, but Varys goes through all that trouble to find a Targ looking baby with a dad who is willing to sell him because he knows The Mountain will leave him so distorted to be unrecognisable? That's a bit too much for me to swallow. Throw in Tyrion's observation that he's too young, which is really just a hint from GRRM, and I think that spells it out.

First of all, if you are actually interested in this issue, you should review the past pages. All the questions and rebuttals you see have already been repeated to death by this point, and thats only on this thread.

If not, feel free to bluntly post your opinion as you are currently.

Sorry if I seem rude, but this self-centered attitude of some posters who completely ignore everyone else's analysis as jus "words" ticks me off.

I don't think you understand what a protective double is.

The major focus is to allow the Prince to escape. Having his double being falsely recognized as the real Aegon is only a bonus.

The Targaryens are not special, as I said before. They have the regular Valyrian looks which is abundant in Essos.

This is like saying only Italians have Roman looks. No, all of Europe has Roman genes from their massive empire.

It will not be hard for someone like VARYS and his CONNECTIONS (Ilyrio) to get hold of a Valyrian baby.

Tyrion is not omniscient and is certainly not always right. Many people look older, or younger than their age.

Also, keep in mind the overall discussion is whether the Pisswater Prince swap is plausible, not if fAegon is Aegon.

[The Dragon King]

First of all, if you are actually interested in this issue, you should review the past pages. All the questions and rebuttals you see have already been repeated to death by this point, and thats only on this thread.

If not, feel free to bluntly post your opinion as you are currently.

Sorry if I seem rude, but this self-centered attitude of some posters who completely ignore everyone else's analysis as jus "words" ticks me off.

I don't think you understand what a protective double is.

The major focus is to allow the Prince to escape. Having his double being falsely recognized as the real Aegon is only a bonus.

The Targaryens are not special, as I said before. They have the regular Valyrian looks which is abundant in Essos.

This is like saying only Italians have Roman looks. No, all of Europe has Roman genes from their massive empire.

It will not be hard for someone like VARYS and his CONNECTIONS (Ilyrio) to get hold of a Valyrian baby.

Tyrion is not omniscient and is certainly not always right. Many people look older, or younger than their age.

Also, keep in mind the overall discussion is whether the Pisswater Prince swap is plausible, not if fAegon is Aegon.

Have you considered your attitude self-centered?

I very much understand the concept of a protective double, thank you, I just don't think it applies in this case, I don't the royal family is going to let their intelligence gatherer get a hold of the prince and her and swap him, if they thought the Lannisters were a threat they'd have made a move for Elia and both of her kids, along with a pack of bodyguards, to get out of Dodge.

Also, it's easy to get a hold of a Targ looking baby in general, it's not so easy in King's Landing in the time when you think you'll need one. which is when you realize the Lannisters mean harm. Afterwards, and in Essos, it's no big deal, which is exactly what I think happened, either it's Ilyrio's kid or just a child they got a hold of to put a chess piece on the board. Yet again, I think the swap is a fanciful and romantic idea cooked up afterwards to take advantage of the situation.

[Illusion]

OP, the juvenile bone is much more flexible, main example being Greenstick fractures.

This type of fracture causes one 'side' of the bone to break and the other side to 'bend' which can easily cause severe disfigurement.

How much Varys knew is questionable but I'm sure Gregor preceded his reputation.

I doubt Varys planned on the brutality of this baby's death but he may well have hoped for it.....if fAeagon is real.