[BOOK SPOILERS] Watching the show if it overpasses the books [Part 2]

[oierem]

2018 actually. Or at least if Martin doesn't decide to take another year out which hopefully he won't.

Even if what you are assuming is true (2015 for TWOW, 2018 for ADOS), and assuming that no more books are needed, the seventh (and final) season of the show will air a year earlier.

And about that year Martin took off after the release of ADWD, I think you are giving it too much importance (to make it fit in your "a new book every 3 years is very possible" theory). Martin has always taken sabatical weeks and even months while he travels around the world. He's still doing the same thing, if we assume that he still can't work if he's not at home. After releasing ADWD (having finished it in spring 2011) he said he would probably not start working on the next book until next year, which is quite a long break, but not a whole year (if we assume that he finished editing Dance in April 2011 and started Winds in January 2012).

The truth is that the first three books were published every two years. He needed 5 years (including breaks and rewrites) to finish Feast. He needed 6 years (including breaks and rewrites) to finish Dance. If Winds comes out in 2015 (something you find very possible NOW, but a year ago you were convinced that 2014 was equally possible) that's 4 years. Pretty close to the 5 he needed for Feast.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I think we all assumed that with Sansa's arc, she pretty much finished her AFFC material in S4 and revealing herself to the Lord's Declarant presumably fast forwards things (as revealing Sansa must have been part of LF's plans in the books).

We have no idea if the Sansa reveal was Littlefinger's plan. I'd wager it wasn't and this is the first step to Sansa assuming control of her life. But yes, the last scenes from season 4 are probably from book 6. I wonder how many people will stop watching now.

[Newstar]

He has read the books the series is based on, so has had a fair idea where Littlefinger is headed. But in season five, the show will storm past the books.

Hmm. From the Season 5 casting list (which is supposedly non-exhaustive, but still), I didn't see anything that screamed TWOW. This could just be a reference to the Littlefinger/Sansa arc, which seems like the most likely candidate to vault past the books, but I guess we'll see.

[protar]

Even if what you are assuming is true (2015 for TWOW, 2018 for ADOS), and assuming that no more books are needed, the seventh (and final) season of the show will air a year earlier.

And about that year Martin took off after the release of ADWD, I think you are giving it too much importance (to make it fit in your "a new book every 3 years is very possible" theory). Martin has always taken sabatical weeks and even months while he travels around the world. He's still doing the same thing, if we assume that he still can't work if he's not at home. After releasing ADWD (having finished it in spring 2011) he said he would probably not start working on the next book until next year, which is quite a long break, but not a whole year (if we assume that he finished editing Dance in April 2011 and started Winds in January 2012).

The truth is that the first three books were published every two years. He needed 5 years (including breaks and rewrites) to finish Feast. He needed 6 years (including breaks and rewrites) to finish Dance. If Winds comes out in 2015 (something you find very possible NOW, but a year ago you were convinced that 2014 was equally possible) that's 4 years. Pretty close to the 5 he needed for Feast.

I've always seen 2015 as the release date for TWOW. I simply was unwilling to dismiss 2014 as a potential release date. The first three books where published every two years and logically TWOW should have more in common with them than AFFC/ADWD. Feast and Dance where slow because they told a duller part of the story that the original plan was to skip over. They took a long time to write because of the Meereenese Knot, the scrapped time skip and the PoV split. There is no reason for TWOW to take as long.

We have no idea if the Sansa reveal was Littlefinger's plan. I'd wager it wasn't and this is the first step to Sansa assuming control of her life. But yes, the last scenes from season 4 are probably from book 6. I wonder how many people will stop watching now.

No, I meant that in the books LF no doubt plans to reveal Sansa at some point in order to marry her to Harry the Heir. So the change simply fast forwards things.

I'm dubious as to whether I'll continue watching the show. If I could know for sure that they'll be taking a completely different path then I'd continue watching. If I wasn't so invested in this site I'd probably stop watching. However I'm dubious as to how much of TWOW will actually be in S5 at least in regards to Sansa's arc. I expect they'll keep her screen time quite low and simply go into the set up part of her narrative introducing us to Harry the Heir and Randa Royce (Please!).

[Colonel Green]

Hmm. From the Season 5 casting list (which is supposedly non-exhaustive, but still), I didn't see anything that screamed TWOW. This could just be a reference to the Littlefinger/Sansa arc, which seems like the most likely candidate to vault past the books, but I guess we'll see.

Are scripts out yet? I imagine Gillen, having read the books, would simply be aware that there's pretty much nothing left in them for Littlefinger to do.

[Newstar]

Are scripts out yet? I imagine Gillen, having read the books, would simply be aware that there's pretty much nothing left in them for Littlefinger to do.

Last year, Carice van Houten tweeted a photo of her 401 script on July 1st, so assuming they're keeping to the same schedule, then it seems likely that he already received the scripts by now. However, the interview was published July 2nd and likely took place before then, so it's possible that he was just speaking based on his knowledge of the books and not of the scripts themselves.

[Faint]

2018 actually. Or at least if Martin doesn't decide to take another year out which hopefully he won't.

Are you honestly expecting him to drop his tour plans, book signings and customary six month break to immediately commence work on A Dream of Spring right after finishing the final edits on The Winds of Winter?

Come now, at least be somewhat realistic already with your expectations.

If he delivers The Winds of Winter sometime in summer of 2015, the earliest he would start working on the next book is probably the following January, and if he maintains the same writing speed he had while writing The Winds of Winter, the next book would be published sometime in the summer of 2019. That would be either the year after or, more likely, two years after the television show had gone off air.

[Faint]

Hmm. From the Season 5 casting list (which is supposedly non-exhaustive, but still), I didn't see anything that screamed TWOW. This could just be a reference to the Littlefinger/Sansa arc, which seems like the most likely candidate to vault past the books, but I guess we'll see.

I have brought up this point before but what casting would really indicate that the show had ventured into The Winds of Winter material?

The only thing that comes to mind is if we find out multiple Dothraki have been cast (or perhaps Harry the Heir, although I do not think his casting would necessarily indicate as much as some others might think). After all, Martin has said he was done with adding new point-of-view characters, so there is no one that particularly important left to cast anyway.

[protar]

Are you honestly expecting him to drop his tour plans, book signings and customary six month break to immediately commence work on A Dream of Spring right after finishing the final edits on The Winds of Winter?

Come now, at least be somewhat realistic already with your expectations.

If he delivers The Winds of Winter sometime in summer of 2015, the earliest he would start working on the next book is probably the following January, and if he maintains the same writing speed he had while writing The Winds of Winter, the next book would be published sometime in the summer of 2019. That would be either the year after or, more likely, two years after the television show had gone off air.

I'm just saying I don't think Martin is going to take another whole year out. Martin has got to know the show is catching up with him and even if he can't keep ahead I'm sure he'd still like to get the ending out as soon as possible before spoilers permeate the internet too much. He's going to take the time he needs but at the same time I can't see him deliberately stopping progress.

[Faint]

I'm just saying I don't think Martin is going to take another whole year out . . .

He never took a year off. He went on tour and did his book signings like he always does and then he started writing again beginning in 2012.

Again, the idea that he is going to ditch the book signings and so forth this time out is not very plausible.

[Breaking Bronn]

If you honestly think this site is going to permit spoilers when Linda (and possibly Ran too) aren't going to be watching the show you've got another thing coming. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a major crackdown.

What gives you the idea that Elio will stop watching? He strikes me as a reasonable man that will continue watching, mostly for pragmatic purposes.

[robbyhouston]

The whole time Martin is writing, he's imagining how each idea and story progression will affect his idea of an ending. He's had the ending in mind for 20 years. I can see the last book taking just 2-3. Super optimistic, but with how long he has known the ending for the major characters, now he just has to come up with minor character endings and the actual work of writing.

[sj4iy]

If you honestly think this site is going to permit spoilers when Linda (and possibly Ran too) aren't going to be watching the show you've got another thing coming. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a major crackdown.

Also, yay for petty vindictiveness!

I'm not being vindictive at all. I didn't say I wanted people to post spoilers, I just mentioned that no one patrols the non spoiler threads now, I don't see them being patrolled then. The books are not nor should they be holier than the show. If there is a crackdown on one, then there should be a crackdown on the other. Otherwise, treat them equally.

[protar]

What gives you the idea that Elio will stop watching? He strikes me as a reasonable man that will continue watching, mostly for pragmatic purposes.

You're probably right that he'll continue watching if only to moderate the forums. But there's also a small possibility he could stop entirely.

The whole time Martin is writing, he's imagining how each idea and story progression will affect his idea of an ending. He's had the ending in mind for 20 years. I can see the last book taking just 2-3. Super optimistic, but with how long he has known the ending for the major characters, now he just has to come up with minor character endings and the actual work of writing.

The reality is that if the show overpasses the books the spoiler enforcement policy would likely be much stricter. Which is understandable because there are incredibly few people here who have not read the books.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

I will definitely continue to watch. As many pointed out, even though the big things will be revealed the books will have a lot of detail not in the show and we won't know which things the show does are from the books and which things are deviations. After all, we're still debating whether that Night's King slip was a spoiler or a mistake.

I don't think knowing the plot points will ruin the book experience. I read the books after season 1. The experience of reading about Ned's death and the hatching of the dragons wasn't diminished at all. It was still a pleasure getting those things that wouldn't have been practical to adapt like the ToJ dream and Bran's more detailed visions.

In fact, even though a big part of me would prefer getting the real thing first, in some ways I think it would be best to go into the books already knowing more or less what happens. I was so anxious to find out what would happen next that I initially read the books too quickly and too superficially. I was shocked when I made my way to this site to discover how much I missed the first time around. The first reread was actually much more rewarding because I was analyzing things and absorbing the details rather than sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for the next big shocking twist.

I also don't think it will be as easy to avoid spoilers as people think it will be. Maybe the readers who live in countries where GoT hasn't caught on will be fine. In the US it would be impossible. The RW was covered on the Daily Show after all. If Tyrion or Dany dies on the show you will hear about it.

[JagLover]

Hmm. From the Season 5 casting list (which is supposedly non-exhaustive, but still), I didn't see anything that screamed TWOW. This could just be a reference to the Littlefinger/Sansa arc, which seems like the most likely candidate to vault past the books, but I guess we'll see.

Both Bran and Sansa will move into WOW territory. But what additional casting is required is open to question.

I imagine Bran's role to be in the form of visions. For Sansa I doubt they are going down the Harry the Heir route so it is almost a complete unknown and guesswork.

[Hodor!!!]

Both Bran and Sansa will move into WOW territory. But what additional casting is required is open to question.

I imagine Bran's role to be in the form of visions.

So, poor Isaac Hempstead-Wright's only acting in the whole season would be sitting with his eyes rolled?..

[Newstar]

Both Bran and Sansa will move into WOW territory. But what additional casting is required is open to question.

Well, it would be weird if Littlefinger and Sansa toured the Vale without meeting any new characters in the process.

[Colonel Green]

For Sansa I doubt they are going down the Harry the Heir route

That would involve discarding pretty much everything we know about her story going forward, including the threat to Robin, which seems like it's meant to be a big moral quandry/narrative turning point, one way or another.

[Faint]

For Sansa I doubt they are going down the Harry the Heir route so it is almost a complete unknown and guesswork.

Obviously it will not transpire as Littlefinger has laid out, which would be contrary to everything we know about Martin's narrative framing, but far too much groundwork has been setup to abandon the Harry the Heir plot, whatever may come of it.