Ser Hugh of The Vale

[HosteenOsteen]

I am still slightly confused by Ser Hugh of the Vale. Ultimately, he has to do with Littlefinger's role in Jon Arryn's death (the biggest surprise for me in the books--Lysa's relationship with LF) but what precisely is his role? Just a red herring? Those early KL chapters in AGOT are so crowded with intrigue and misdirection it is easy for details to get lost in the shuffle.....

[MyLittleFinger]

Just a squire for Jon Arryn who Robert gave a suit of armour and a knighthood in honour of the death of his father figure who got killed in an accident facing a guy he had no business facing.

It's also interesting to note that Varys is the one that tries to tie Hugh and the poison. Maybe he doesn't have LF quite as figured out as he would seem to think he does.

[shearstone]

Just a squire for Jon Arryn who Robert gave a suit of armour and a knighthood in honour of the death of his father figure who got killed in an accident facing a guy he had no business facing.

It's also interesting to note that Varys is the one that tries to tie Hugh and the poison. Maybe he doesn't have LF quite as figured out as he would seem to think he does.

Vary's knew enough, he mentioned Ser Hugh but everything he said to Ned about him was actually about LF.

[GallowsKnight]

Varys lies. He even implies to his partner in crime that he had a hand in Jon Arryn's death. Varys was going out of his way to create an oppressive atmosphere of conspiracy for Ned. I think Hugh was part of this.

In reality he was just an unlucky too green knight butchered by the Mountain for the lulz.

[MyLittleFinger]

Vary's knew enough, he mentioned Ser Hugh but everything he said to Ned about him was actually about LF.

Ah yes, interesting catch. :bowdown: Though everything he owns he owes to Lysa might be more correct (not that Varys would really give a mummers fart in this case)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I don't think that Ser Hugh died on purpose actually. This is the first real look we get at Gregor, and it shows his character.

It's possible that he was killed on purpose so that Ned would not figure out that Hugh had nothing to so with it, but it seems unlikely.

Vary's knew enough, he mentioned Ser Hugh but everything he said to Ned about him was actually about LF.

Actually, most of that passage does not refer to LF. Only some.

Sure, he owed a lot to Jon (and way more to Lysa), but he did not prosper after Jons death... Ser Hugh did.

Also, Hugh was part of the Arryn household, so it was strange that he remained behind in KL. LF was not part of the Arryn household, and had never been. That he remained at KL was the most normal thing in the world

Varys seems to actually be convinced Hugh did the deed. We notice in aGoT that Pycelle starts to suspect Varys, but by the time Tyrion questions him in Clash, Pycelle believes it was Hugh as well.

It wouldn't be the first thing LF did, that he got past Varys. Does Neds death ring a bell? :P

[Lost Melnibonean]

Varys lies. He even implies to his partner in crime that he had a hand in Jon Arryn's death. Varys was going out of his way to create an oppressive atmosphere of conspiracy for Ned. I think Hugh was part of this.

In reality he was just an unlucky too green knight butchered by the Mountain for the lulz.

so you believe the if one hand can die line suggests Varys let Illyrio believe he took out Jon Arryn?

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't think that Ser Hugh died on purpose actually. This is the first real look we get at Gregor, and it shows his character.

It's possible that he was killed on purpose so that Ned would not figure out that Hugh had nothing to so with it, but it seems unlikely.

Actually, most of that passage does not refer to LF. Only some.

Sure, he owed a lot to Jon (and way more to Lysa), but he did not prosper after Jons death... Ser Hugh did.

Also, Hugh was part of the Arryn household, so it was strange that he remained behind in KL. LF was not part of the Arryn household, and had never been. That he remained at KL was the most normal thing in the world

Varys seems to actually be convinced Hugh did the deed. We notice in aGoT that Pycelle starts to suspect Varys, but by the time Tyrion questions him in Clash, Pycelle believes it was Hugh as well.

It wouldn't be the first thing LF did, that he got past Varys. Does Neds death ring a bell? :P

Ned already suspected Lannister's bannerman of silencing Hugh. There's no way Varys could know that but The George had already steered us that way so he didn't need Varys for that. I think Varys needed to set up having Ned removed from the game. It was still too soon to have the bastards exposed so Varys was going to "help" Ned against the Lannisters and then secretly double cross him.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

so you believe the if one hand can die line suggests Varys let Illyrio believe he took out Jon Arryn?

I do believe that what's we are supposed to think at first. But we later learn that is was LF and Lysa, so we know Varys had nothing to do with it.

Varys was also not involved in the death of the Hand prior to Jon Arryn, lord Rossart. But the Hand before Rossart, lord Chelsted, was burned alive by Aerys. Had he simply resigned (as he tried to do) and left KL, he would have taken the knowledge of the Wildfire plot along with him. In the present day, there are only a select few who know about the plot. Chelsted would most likely have shared he info if he had gotten out alive, which could have changed things significantly. The information stayed in KL only because of Chelsteds death.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ned already suspected Lannister's bannerman of silencing Hugh. There's no way Varys could know that but The George had already steered us that way so he didn't need Varys for that. I think Varys needed to set up having Ned removed from the game. It was still too soon to have the bastards exposed so Varys was going to "help" Ned against the Lannisters and then secretly double cross him.

I don't really follow. Varys is less involved in the Jon Arryn mystery than LF. Varys did not yet want Ned removed,, he needed Lannister and Stark to remain at peace for a little while longer.

LF was totally setting Ned up to fall, and actively helped him get there.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I don't think Illyrio's comment indicates that he thought Varys was involved in Arryn's death. Just that it might not seem extraordinary, given what's happened to most of the last several Hands if someone bumped Ned off. It's not an office with a great prospect for advancement.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

I don't really follow. Varys is less involved in the Jon Arryn mystery than LF. Varys did not yet want Ned removed,, he needed Lannister and Stark to remain at peace for a little while longer.

LF was totally setting Ned up to fall, and actively helped him get there.

Yet Ned's wife had seized Tyrion Lannister and Ned had "the book and the bastard" and was ready to expose Cersei. This did not foster peace but threatened war. As in the case of Jon Arryn, there reached a tipping point where the Hand's death was of greater value than the Hand's ability to preserve peace for a few more weeks.

In essence we're dealing with multiple layers of plotting, as both LF and Varys have vested interests in the life and death of both Jon and Ned. I see it as a chess game where those two pieces really only have a specific use. When they are no longer useful, they are suitable only for sacrifice for the benefit of whichever player makes the first move.

Eta- for the record, I think in his little speech Varys was talking about both Ser Hugh and Littlefinger in a purposely vague way, and I think it was done in order to test Ned.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Yet Ned's wife had seized Tyrion Lannister and Ned had "the book and the bastard" and was ready to expose Cersei. This did not foster peace but threatened war. As in the case of Jon Arryn, there reached a tipping point where the Hand's death was of greater value than the Hand's ability to preserve peace for a few more weeks.

In essence we're dealing with multiple layers of plotting, as both LF and Varys have vested interests in the life and death of both Jon and Ned. I see it as a chess game where those two pieces really only have a specific use. When they are no longer useful, they are suitable only for sacrifice for the benefit of whichever player makes the first move.

Eta- for the record, I think in his little speech Varys was talking about both Ser Hugh and Littlefinger in a purposely vague way, and I think it was done in order to test Ned.

R_T has done a real nice analysis somewhere else explaining that Varys was referring Hugh and not Petyr. She convinced me as to that point.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

R_T has done a real nice analysis somewhere else explaining that Varys was referring Hugh and not Petyr. She convinced me as to that point.

Very nice :)

Like I said, I think he was referring to Ser Hugh and Petyr Baelish. Subtlety and irony... the tools of the Master of Whisperers ;)

[ghosts in winterfell]

Very nice :)

Like I said, I think he was referring to Ser Hugh and Petyr Baelish. Subtlety and irony... the tools of the Master of Whisperers ;)

Yeah his little speech was definitely 50% Littlefinger.

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

Eta- for the record, I think in his little speech Varys was talking about both Ser Hugh and Littlefinger in a purposely vague way, and I think it was done in order to test Ned.

Varys was definitely speaking of Ser Hugh. If he was speaking of both him and Petyr, a lot of what he says does not fit and would not really be any way to test Ned,

If anything, it is a nod by GRRM for those doing re-reads.

Yeah his little speech was definitely 50% Littlefinger.

But it was 100% Ser Hugh.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Ser Hugh's part is so convoluted. His death can't be an accident, it just can't because it would be so lame. Somebody had to arrange the jousting, and somebody had to command Gregor to kill Hugh. And that somebody had to be Cersei, since Gregor really was a Lannister creature through and through.

So I think Varys really believed it was Hugh and he told both Ned (to earn his trust) and Cersei (so she could kill him and the secret of Jon's death would remain secret for a while longer) OR LF told Cersei that Ned was sniffing around Ser Hugh and that it would be convenient for her to remove Hugh alltogether, and that way LF gives Ned more evidence of the Lannisters being behind Jon's death

Like I said, quite convoluted

[Lost Melnibonean]

Ser Hugh's part is so convoluted. His death can't be an accident, it just can't because it would be so lame. Somebody had to arrange the jousting, and somebody had to command Gregor to kill Hugh. And that somebody had to be Cersei, since Gregor really was a Lannister creature through and through.

So I think Varys really believed it was Hugh and he told both Ned (to earn his trust) and Cersei (so she could kill him and the secret of Jon's death would remain secret for a while longer) OR LF told Cersei that Ned was sniffing around Ser Hugh and that it would be convenient for her to remove Hugh alltogether, and that way LF gives Ned more evidence of the Lannisters being behind Jon's death

Like I said, quite convoluted

I think Sandor had it right.

[Ragnorak]

Ser Hugh's part is so convoluted. His death can't be an accident, it just can't because it would be so lame. Somebody had to arrange the jousting, and somebody had to command Gregor to kill Hugh. And that somebody had to be Cersei, since Gregor really was a Lannister creature through and through.

So I think Varys really believed it was Hugh and he told both Ned (to earn his trust) and Cersei (so she could kill him and the secret of Jon's death would remain secret for a while longer) OR LF told Cersei that Ned was sniffing around Ser Hugh and that it would be convenient for her to remove Hugh alltogether, and that way LF gives Ned more evidence of the Lannisters being behind Jon's death

Like I said, quite convoluted

I think you need to look at what Cersei seems to know. Back in the very beginning of GoT she seems concerned that Lysa "knows." She was also concerned enough about Lysa to arrange for Little Robert Arryn to be fostered at Casterly Rock. We know Cersei knew that Arryn was a threat and that Arryn knew of the incest. Who was her source? The candidates seem to be Pycelle, Varys and LF. I would suspect LF as the fostering of Sweetrobin is the thing that motivated Lysa to poison Arryn. So LF tips off Cersei that Jon Arryn plans to move against her and suggests preempting the Stannis fostering with Tywin fostering. LF also seems to like setting up a fall guy for his schemes like we see with Tyrion at the Purple Wedding. So LF would be Cersei's source for Ser Hugh as the poisoner and Cersei would have ordered Gregor to solve the problem. Sandor tells Sansa that Gregor's lance goes where Gregor wants implying that Gregor intentionally killed him and Gregor is the one Cersei goes to when she needs a champion in Tyrion's trial.

Varys is simply trying to delay the full on outset of war for a little while longer-- 9 months minus Illyrio's travel time across the Narrow Sea give or take. He doesn't really want to stop LF's machinations. He just wants to release a bit of the building pressure so things don't blow up so soon. Varys knows that LF was behind Ned's beheading but never pushes Tyrion to make that connection even though Tyrion had the pieces to assemble.

“It would seem he has a point,” said Tyrion. “So this Lord Slynt, he was part of it, was he? Tell me, whose fine notion was it to grant him Harrenhal and name him to the council?”

“Littlefinger made the arrangements.

Sighing, Tyrion started to reach for the wine again, then remembered Lord Janos and pushed the flagon away. “It does seem my sister was telling the truth about Stark’s death. We have my nephew to thank for that madness.”

“King Joffrey gave the command. Janos Slynt and Ser Ilyn Payne carried it out, swiftly, without hesitation…”

“…almost as if they had expected it. Yes, we have been over this ground before, without profit. A folly.”

Varys smiled. “Some say knowledge is power. Some tell us that all power comes from the gods. Others say it derives from law. Yet that day on the steps of Baelor’s Sept, our godly High Septon and the lawful Queen Regent and your ever-so-knowledgeable servant were as powerless as any cobbler or cooper in the crowd. Who truly killed Eddard Stark do you think? Joffrey, who gave the command? Ser Ilyn Payne, who swung the sword? Or… another? “

Just like with Jon Arryn it seems Varys knows who the "Or... another" is that is truly responsible for the Hands' deaths. Varys intentionally leaves LF in play even though it would have been an absurdly simple matter to nudge the Tyrion who already has an axe to grind over a certain dagger. Varys does remove LF's pawn Slynt who acted against Ned and shifts the balance of power in KL by moving the Gold Cloaks from LF's column to Tyrion's. Rather than setting Tyrion against LF when Tyrion has the power and authority to win outright, he sets LF against Tyrion to distract and delay them both.

The real question is who does Cersei think is behind the poisoning? Pycelle thinks it was Cersei but it isn't entirely clear that the reverse is true-- though it could be. LF is seen as too much a friend and too harmless to have been believed to be the one who even just arranged to have a King's Hand killed. I can see LF playing both Cersei and Pycelle here. It isn't like they're going to have an open conversation about the incest so the risk of discovery is minimal.

So I think Varys knows for certain that LF was behind Arryn and Ned's deaths. He just doesn't care because he wants a LF free to sow chaos for his eventual endgame. He is quite intentionally not trying to stop LF but merely slow him down a bit. Keep in mind Dany's opening chapter takes place earlier than Jon Arryn's death. Varys' plot was already in motion when Arryn died.

[Good Guy Garlan]

So LF would be Cersei's source for Ser Hugh as the poisoner and Cersei would have ordered Gregor to solve the problem. Sandor tells Sansa that Gregor's lance goes where Gregor wants implying that Gregor intentionally killed him and Gregor is the one Cersei goes to when she needs a champion in Tyrion's trial.

But if LF told Cersei that Hugh was the poisoner, who did Cersei think gave him the order (cause even Cersei would know Hugh wasn't working alone), Pycelle? I think that's a stretch. I think Hugh actually had nothing to do with Jon's death, but LF wanted Ned to believe the opposite. So LF told Ned that Hugh had stayed in KL and advised him to send someone from his household to talk to him, in case Cersei's spies were watching. So then, Cersei's spies saw Jory talking to him, or maybe even LF told Cersei that Ned had an interest on Hugh, and Cersei automatically assumed that Hugh knew about the incest, so that's why she had Gregor kill him, not because she suspected he was the poisoner. Ironically, by her doing this, Ned, Pycelle and maybe Varys (maybe not) immediately suspected her.