who tried to kill Bran?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. Who says LF was even in KL? Maybe he was at a friend's place or in the Fingers (a short hop by boat from the North).

A short hop taking a week or two to White Harbor. And quite some time up the White Knife.

2. Who says a raven had to fly from Winterfell? Why not by horse courier and then from the Dreadfort for example?

If you want to go for the Dreadfort, that's at least two weeks by courier. And another two for a raven to go back and forth. And it needs the courier to get into Winterfell unnoticed. In a frigging castle. Furthermore, it would require Roose Bolton to be on LF's paylist.

3. Who says a raven even had to fly at all? We know his other agents are quite capable of causing trouble on their own. The instruction from LF need only have been to provoke conflict between Starks and Lannisters with the agents free to figure out the details.

Do we? I didn't rememer one single such agent.

[Hippocras]

I say you should all be looking at text hints, not trying to put a scale on a map that does not actually have a scale, on purpose, because GRRM did not want to be worrying about times and distances too much.

We don't actually know travel times. We just have hints from time to time how long it took certain people, under their own particular circumstances, never knowing their pace, how often they stopped, where and how long.

I personally think arguments based on ravens and travel times are silly, but am willing to engage in discussions on book hints. Those are there if you look.

[Mikkel]

Of course GRRM cares about distances and travel times. I know there's a quote where he says something about maps and rules and how caring too deeply about that ruins the narrative (or whatever, I'm paraphrasing), but that's not the same as meaning we should just go "lol, distances don't matter!".

And we ARE looking at text hints, but obviously interpretation of said hints differ, and your interpretation is just one, not necessarily correct one.

[Hippocras]

Of course GRRM cares about distances and travel times. I know there's a quote where he says something about maps and rules and how caring too deeply about that ruins the narrative (or whatever, I'm paraphrasing), but that's not the same as meaning we should just go "lol, distances don't matter!".

And we ARE looking at text hints, but obviously interpretation of said hints differ, and your interpretation is just one, not necessarily correct one.

Well I will certainly accept it if the future books prove me wrong. No theory in any direction at this point has proof.

But I do not consider travel times to be meaningful arguments because they are based on way too many assumptions regarding way too many factors.

We don't know where LF was, we don't know who his agent/s in the North were - but we do know there was at least one - someone who planted the message from Lysa and some who told LF Catelyn was on her way. We do know he has a boat and uses Oswell to do his work with it. There are just so many ways that travel times could have been reduced and messages passed.

[Mikkel]

Well I will certainly accept it if the future books prove me wrong. No theory in any direction at this point has proof.

But I do not consider travel times to be meaningful arguments because they are based on way too many assumptions regarding way too many factors.

We don't know where LF was, we don't know who his agent/s in the North were - but we do know there was at least one - someone who planted the message from Lysa and some who told LF Catelyn was on her way. We do know he has a boat and uses Oswell to do his work with it. There are just so many ways that travel times could have been reduced and messages passed.

Fair point, but even Littlefinger having an active agent in the North is an assumption. He could have had the message hidden in the box before Robert and party ever left KL.

It's not an unreasonable assumption, to be fair, but it IS one all the same.

Personally I think you're buying too much into LF's bullshit, I don't think he has nearly the influence he says he has - that's not to say he has no influence whatsoever, of course, but I'm not convinced he's nearly the continent-spanning mastermind some people think he is.

Littlefinger's success relies upon those further up the food chain ignoring him as a threat, seeing him as somewhere between inconsequential and useful, and key to that is running a tight operation - which suggests to me his agents number in the single digits.

[Hippocras]

Fair point, but even Littlefinger having an active agent in the North is an assumption. He could have had the message hidden in the box before Robert and party ever left KL.

It's not an unreasonable assumption, to be fair, but it IS one all the same.

Personally I think you're buying too much into LF's bullshit, I don't think he has nearly the influence he says he has - that's not to say he has no influence whatsoever, of course, but I'm not convinced he's nearly the continent-spanning mastermind some people think he is.

Littlefinger's success relies upon those further up the food chain ignoring him as a threat, seeing him as somewhere between inconsequential and useful, and key to that is running a tight operation - which suggests to me his agents number in the single digits.

I suppose we shall see! :D

Either I am overestimating him, or you are underestimating him.

[barmyscouser]

Joff

Tyrion put it best. "Only a fool would arm a common footpad with his own blade."

[juanml82]

Mance could have had a motive, but he would not sink so low to murder a child to pursue his agenda. Especially not since Ned being appointed Hand was already enough to help him prepare his attack on the Wall. Robb Stark was an inexperienced boy and would most likely not realize what's happening until it was too late (or so Mance's reasoning).

If Mance had been behind the murder, he would not have stolen a Valyrian steel dagger from the king (far too risky), nor would he have paid the assassin with silver coins. He would have gone after Bran himself, or he would have sent one of his companions with him.

There was no talk about a deal between Mance and the Iron Throne in the books. Balon Greyjoy offered an alliance, but was turned down. All Tywin intended to do with the wildling threat was to ignore it because he knew it would only be a threat to his enemies in the North (Northmen/Ironborn).

We really don't know enough of Mance to know if he would consider killing a child sinking low. He is a king of the wildlings, and that's not a position he reached by being a nice guy. Also, Ned becoming the Hand will actually make matters worse: the Watch sends ravens to KL asking for help, the Hand of the King understands the threat and orders not just the North but also nearby regions (the Vale, the Riverlands, the Iron Islands, maybe the Royal Fleet) to march/sail north to stop the Wildlings.

As for the risk of stealing the dagger, the whole idea is to incriminate the Iron Throne. As for sending someone else, he might have considered it too risky, or a violation of guest rights.

[Lord Damian]

Jaime and Cersei first. Joff later on, probably by something his mother or Rober said but now thinking manipulated by Cersei to be precise.

[Hippocras]

One possible means of rapid communication with the South for example:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Theomore

[Mikkel]

I suppose we shall see! :D

Either I am overestimating him, or you are underestimating him.

Or somewhere in between, but we certainly agree on one thing: We shall see. As long as the final result is a dead LF, I'm good with either result :P

[Bright Blue Eyes]

One possible means of rapid communication with the South for example:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Theomore

And White Harbour is about 500 miles from Winterfell...

[Cubarey]

It was Joff incited by Robert's drunken offhand comment, possibly goaded by Cersi.

[Hippocras]

And White Harbour is about 500 miles from Winterfell...

based on? Again, I think distance arguments are weak, since there is actually no scale map.

White Harbour is at the end of the White Knife which reaches inland most of the way to Winterfell. There is boat traffic along it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

based on? Again, I think distance arguments are weak, since there is actually no scale map.

White Harbour is at the end of the White Knife which reaches inland most of the way to Winterfell. There is boat traffic along it.

There is: The Wall is 300 miles long.

Of course there is boat traffic on the White Knife. But medieval boat traffic is not as fast as a modern car. Against the current, the average daily amount is 15-20 km per day. Km, not miles.

[Hippocras]

There is: The Wall is 300 miles long.

Of course there is boat traffic on the White Knife. But medieval boat traffic is not as fast as a modern car. Against the current, the average daily amount is 15-20 km per day. Km, not miles.

You are over-thinking it.

If GRRM says LF was involved we will eventually know. Question: would it really bother you, story-wise if LF was behind it? Why are you against the idea?

It is not as if no time at all passed between when Bran fell and when the attempt was made on his life.

[briantw]

I still think it was LF. My flimsy reasoning is this:

In Catelyn Chapter IV they discuss how they found the assassin's hiding place in the stables and found some silver coins. Later when Catelyn is reminicing about LF she thinks about his love for all things silver. That word association just strikes me as too much of a coincidence. Flimsy I know.

Also there's just no evidence that Joffrey ever cared about Robert. Plus he has contempt for everything and everyone. He doesn't strike me as someone who would care about providing a "mercy" to a kid he barely knows in order to impress his father.

Since there is no decent way to tell how much time passed from when Bran fell to the assassination attempt (that I'm aware of) he could have planned it to stir up trouble, including providing the dagger that would implicate Tyrion.

There actually is a way to tell how much time has passed. During Jon's chapter where everyone leaves Winterfell, he notes that she had been by Bran's bed for almost a fortnight. We know that she has been by Bran's bed since he fell, which means that it has been less than two weeks since the fall. Given the phrasing ("close on a fortnight"), we can assume that it has been at least ten days but not fourteen. The assassin makes the attempt on Bran's life eight days later, as we learn during the Cat chapter where the attempt takes place. "Ned and the girls were eight days gone."

We also know that the assassin was hired before the King's party left Winterfell, as he was armed with a knife from the caravan and paid by (presumably) someone from the King's party. This means that the person behind the catspaw had less than fourteen days to learn of Bran's fall and then pay the catspaw.

Logistically, there is absolutely no way Littlefinger could have learned about Bran falling and given a response, even via raven. It's unlikely he even heard about Bran's fall before the King's party left Winterfell. It took almost a month for word of Jon Arryn's death to reach Winterfell, after all, and it took Cat almost two months to get to King's Landing via boat (the fastest method available). Littlefinger was not behind Bran's fall and we really need to drop this line of thought. It's ridiculous.

[Hippocras]

too many assumptions in the above.

We have no idea when the catspaw was hired and by whom.

We don't know where any messages had to go - maybe not far at all.

Distance arguments are not valid so long as we do not know who LF's agents in the North are, and where LF was at the time.

[briantw]

too many assumptions in the above.

We have no idea when the catspaw was hired and by whom.

We don't know where any messages had to go - maybe not far at all.

Distance arguments are not valid so long as we do not know who LF's agents in the North are, and where LF was at the time.

1. We do know when the catspaw was hired. He flat out says "it would be a mercy," which means he was hired after Bran fell. He also mentions that there wasn't supposed to be anyone with Bran, which means he was hired after Bran was in a coma and was sent to kill him under the assumption that he would be totally helpless. And unless he stole the knife and was then conveniently hired later (unlikely and, frankly, a little ridiculous), someone from the King's party hired him and gave him the knife, which means he was hired before their party left.

2. Do you honestly think Littlefinger has agents in the North that he trusts to make the kind of call that would have to be made after Bran's fall? He tells Sansa not to trust anyone, and it's pretty clear he only trusts a select few people, and even them not enough to make a decision like deciding to send someone to kill Bran.

3. Given the above, distance arguments are totally valid. Littlefinger doesn't control a vast web of conspirators. He makes all his decisions himself or by manipulating others. He wasn't in the position to do either for Bran's fall.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

You are over-thinking it.

If GRRM says LF was involved we will eventually know. Question: would it really bother you, story-wise if LF was behind it? Why are you against the idea?

It is not as if no time at all passed between when Bran fell and when the attempt was made on his life.

Yes, it would bother me. The same way Jon digging out an F-16 and shooting down dragons with it: Because it defies the inner logic of the setting.