Horza Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Pro-Russian gunmen seize a police station in Slavyansk Going by this footage some are quite well armed. Ooh, tricked-out western rifles*, nice touch. Pic on the left from Slavyansk right is from Crimea, last month. *more likely an Ukrainian-made AR-15 variant, so a touch more deniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jurble Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Common assumption is that the gunmen in Slavyansk are Russian special forces. Reasonable assumption? Or are they native partisans armed by Russia? If they're special forces, it means Russia basically plans on annexing as much of Ukraine as it can now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Going by the video the guys with these weapons look pretty well trained, and I don't see why you'd dole out this sort of specialist kit to locals - sort of wrecks the whole deniability thing (plus they might just nick the stuff). What it's about is anyone's guess. It might be more Kiev-poking or we could be hours away from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghjhero Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Going by the video the guys with these weapons look pretty well trained, and I don't see why you'd dole out this sort of specialist kit to locals - sort of wrecks the whole deniability thing (plus they might just nick the stuff). What it's about is anyone's guess. It might be more Kiev-poking or we could be hours away from this. Call me naive, but I didn't expect a theoretical Russian invasion to be so bloody. I guess I was expecting another operation such as how Crimea taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Call me naive, but I didn't expect a theoretical Russian invasion to be so bloody. I guess I was expecting another operation such as how Crimea taken. Might not be terribly bloody if Ukrainian forces stand down, but annexing the Southeast is a big, high-risk operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 One of the masked men there, who identified himself to the AP only as “Sergei,” said the group has “only one demand: a referendum and joining Russia.” "Ahem, only two demands: a referendum, joining Russia and guaranteed pensions. Our three demands are..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Oh what that's that? You want more amateur video analysis? Happy to oblige. Here's some nice long blurry footage of the Kramatorsk police HQ storming. The concerned local citizens doing it are clearly a different mob to Crimea's little green men: balaclavas are optional and some of them are above military age. They are carrying some shiny AK-100-series assault rifles, however. The tactics leave a little to be desired: they march up in a column only to get rather awkwardly held up outside by some police officers and locals, and while clearly trained they get hesitant when it's clear they need to do more than shoot out some windows. There's a time cut and at around 2:10 one of them gets distracted by a heckler, requiring one of the leaders to stop him pointing his gun and otherwise losing focus. There are a few guys in civvies who appear to be with them and take an interest in dealing with the heckler and the slightly comic police chief(?). There's another time cut and they bring in the local(?) roustabouts to barge in the front (which was the tactic at the Crimean bases) but it gets a bit confused and chaotic so they seem to think better of it and clear the area and commence shooting and lobbing stun grenades. Not quite the Crimean Parliament job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doireidh Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 "Ahem, only two demands: a referendum, joining Russia and guaranteed pensions. Our three demands are..."The referendum would be about joining Russia so that'll be only one demand, no? The current government in Kiev has launched an "anti-terror campaign". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The referendum would be about joining Russia so that'll be only one demand, no? Going by recent regional trends in electoral administration, yes. The current government in Kiev has launched an "anti-terror campaign". Every journo on the ground says there hasn't been any shooting at the Slavyansk police HQ, it's really unclear what, if anything is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Horza, "Ahem, only two demands: a referendum, joining Russia and guaranteed pensions. Our three demands are...""Amongst our demands are such diverse elements as: a referendum, joining Russia, guaranteed pensions, ... blah, blah, blah, blah, blah".;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 All joking aside:http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27008026It's getting worse. Is Russia actually imbedding Spetsnatz among the protesters? Will it use the protests and the violence now occuring as an excuse to invade and take the remainder of Eastern Ukraine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 All joking aside:http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27008026It's getting worse. Is Russia actually imbedding Spetsnatz among the protesters? Will it use the protests and the violence now occuring as an excuse to invade and take the remainder of Eastern Ukraine? It's pretty clear that Russian security services operate in Ukraine with a great degree of freedom, since the start of this showdown and long before. This isn't a surprise when you consider the institutional histories involved. The current actions could assist any number of purposes: establishing a strong separatist position on the ground would be useful in negotiations with Kyiv over federation, but could also serve an armed intervention both as pretext and strategic asset. This could be a test of Kyiv's capabilities and resolve, to be followed up by more salami-slicing or the opening phase of an annexation ploy. I'm glad it's not my job to work out which. VICE's Ostrovsky is confirming at least one KIA (warning: graphic), circumstances remain unclear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doireidh Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 All joking aside:http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27008026It's getting worse. Is Russia actually imbedding Spetsnatz among the protesters? Will it use the protests and the violence now occuring as an excuse to invade and take the remainder of Eastern Ukraine?Did anyone actually report that there are Spetsnatz among the protesters or is that just your wild guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Doireidh,Well, there are reports of Russian special forces if not Spetzsnaz. So, there are reports and this is my WAG.(and I like the word "Spetzsnaz" it just sounds cool) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doireidh Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Doireidh,Well, there are reports of Russian special forces if not Spetzsnaz. So, there are reports and this is my WAG.(and I like the word "Spetzsnaz" it just sounds cool)I still can't find any of those reports, would be so kind to link them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Let's get real here. Russia would be stupid NOT to have their "Spetznaz" causing chaos in Eastern Ukraine. Any pressure that can weaken the so-called government in Kiev can only play to Russia's favour. Having the opportunity to covertly operate inside Ukraine with impunity, and not doing so, would be a very poor strategic move. Of COURSE Putin's special forces are in Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Doireidh,Well, upon further thought "reports" is too strong. The BBC report I link to up thread speculates about Russian special forces among the protesters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 You'll see various people claiming things like that in the BBC's live reports on the situation, although no direct confirmation from the BBC itself:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27008054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Ukrainians now claim they have proof of Russian envolvement:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27011605Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen's statement on Sunday drew parallels with some aspects of last month's seizure of Crimea. He said the "reappearance of men with specialised Russian weapons and identical uniforms without insignia, as previously worn by Russian troops during Russia's illegal and illegitimate seizure of Crimea, is a grave development". A Nato source told the BBC the organisation believed that "Russian forces have been involved in the seizure of some of the buildings". And the US ambassador to the UN said the attacks on police and other buildings in eastern Ukraine had "telltale signs of Moscow's involvement". "It's professional, co-ordinated. Nothing grass-roots about it," ambassador Samantha Power told ABC News. "The forces are doing in each of the six or seven cities they have been active in exactly the same thing." A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said his country's special services had evidence proving Russia's direct involvement in the events in eastern Ukraine. "We have not only evidence, we have 18 detainees, we have career officers of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, we have arrested agents complete with instructions, arms and explosives," Security Service head Valentyn Nalyvaychenko said in a live TV discussion programme. If true, this could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted April 14, 2014 Author Share Posted April 14, 2014 Shryke,Interesting in a very bad way. If this is undeniable proof of Russian provacatures don't they have to "go" or back down? Wouldn't the Russians lose face in a huge way if they back down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.