Doran might have something up his sleave

[Mithras]

I think Qyburn informed Doran on the order of Varys.

[The guy from the Vale]

Doran was able to get sensitive information from somewhere in Kings Landing. Somewhere that was close to Cersei. He found out about her plot to kill Trystane. Varys seems like the most likely source of that information to me. We don't know Varys' real allegiance, and maybe he was originally more loyal to Aegon over Danaerys and Viserys because Aegon has Martell Blood. Now that Danaerys has dragons, maybe he would consider a potential marriage between the two, but beforehand, he was for sending her to Khal Drogo and the Dothraki with no hope of crossing the narrow sea, while Aegon was being groomed to become King.

While that seems to be the most likely interpretation, I would like to caution against being too sure of it. We never saw that plot to kill Trystane being developed in KL. The reader's only source for the rumor is Doran - and he might be lying about it. The "halfman" shouting bandits in particular sound like something to ignite Cersei's paranoia further, not some plan hatched by herself.

[Mithras]

“His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane.” Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

“Prince Trystane would be welcome in King’s Landing as well,” said Balon Swann. “King Tommen would wish to meet him, I am sure. His Grace has so few companions near his own age.”

“As for the other matter that Queen Cersei raises,” Prince Doran was saying, “it is true, Dorne’s seat upon the small council has been vacant since my brother’s death, and it is past time that it was filled again. I am flattered that Her Grace feels my counsel might be of use to her, though I wonder if I have the strength for such a journey. Perhaps if we went by sea?”

“By ship?” Ser Balon seemed taken aback. “That … would that be safe, my prince? Autumn is a bad season for storms, or so I’ve heard, and … the pirates in the Stepstones, they …”

Prince Doran took a jagged breath. “Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know. This invitation Cersei sent us is a ruse. Trystane is never meant to reach King’s Landing. On the road back, somewhere in the kingswood, Ser Balon’s party will be attacked by outlaws, and my son will die. I am asked to court only so that I may witness this attack with my own eyes and thereby absolve the queen of any blame. Oh, and these outlaws? They will be shouting, ‘Halfman, Halfman,’ as they attack. Ser Balon may even catch a quick glimpse of the Imp, though no one else will.”

“I had my doubts as well, but you all saw how Ser Balon balked when I suggested that we go by sea. A ship would have disturbed all the queen’s arrangements.”

The plot to kill Trystane is real.

[The guy from the Vale]

The plot to kill Trystane is real.

Not explicitly, no. Cersei may have had yet another task in mind for Ser Balon.

Note I'm not saying the plot to kill Trystane totally cannot be the case, I'm just saying it is still too vague to be sure that's what it is, instead of a ruse by Doran to cover up Myrcella's death and wash his hands of it (for example...)

[Hippocras]

I was just doing a reread of an Arianne chapter for my Darkstar Grass Snake theory.

In that chapter it mentions that the Archon of Tyrosh's daughter was a ward of Doran's and used to play with Arianne at the water gardens. Arianne was meanwhile supposed to be sent to Tyrosh in exchange, however Mellario refused to let another child of hers be sent away.

The brother of the Archon of Tyrosh was at Daenerys's betrothal to Drogo.

This would support the Dorne-Varys-Illyrio connection.

[Hippocras]

I think Qyburn informed Doran on the order of Varys.

Yes. Qyburn and Taena worked as a team to raise Cersei's suspicions about the Tyrells.

[jentario]

Well, I'd like to believe Doran has something up his sleeve, but so far the evidence tells us he doesn't have the best judgement:

- "I'm gonna let Arianne run away with Myrcella. What could go wrong?"

- "I'm gonna send my unexperienced and awkward son to a near-suicide mission with just a handful of companions, to cross a war-torn, strange continent only to meet a dragon queen who may or may not accept his offer. Huh, I wish I knew someone more capable for this mission, maybe someone charismatic, seductive, a warrior of great reputation with contacts and knowledge of Essos. Oh, what's that Oberyn? Yeah, yeah, good luck at King's Landing. Don't do anything rash!"

- "Nymeria, you're just as hot-blooded and impulsive as your late father. Which is why you're the perfect person to go to that viper pit that is King's Landing and play the subtle game of thrones."

I mean, the only way we could say any of these things were a good move or part of a larger plan is if Doran is really a heartless bastard that is willing to sacrifice his son, daughter, brother, nieces and ward, destroying any potential alliance or power play in the process.

Or he is just an idiot

I think Darkstar might actually be Doran's man. Myrcella's maiming could have been part of the greater plan, for all we know. It would certainly explain why he let Arianne leave, and it would reveal who was Arianne's traitor. But the question is: why would he want Myrcella maimed/dead?

[Hippocras]

I think Darkstar might actually be Doran's man. Myrcella's maiming could have been part of the greater plan, for all we know. It would certainly explain why he let Arianne leave, and it would reveal who was Arianne's traitor. But the question is: why would he want Myrcella maimed/dead?

I agree. Working on a thread for that. Feel free to contribute any supporting evidence you might find.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Yes. Qyburn and Taena worked as a team to raise Cersei's suspicions about the Tyrells.

I may be misinterpreting what you're saying, but are you suggesting Qyburn is Doran's creature as well? IIRC you mentioned on your Darkstar Grass Snake thread that you think Taena is one of Doran's spies in Kings Landing, but Qyburn seems like a longshot on the surface given Robert Strong...

[Hippocras]

I may be misinterpreting what you're saying, but are you suggesting Qyburn is Doran's creature as well? IIRC you mentioned on your Darkstar Grass Snake thread that you think Taena is one of Doran's spies in Kings Landing, but Qyburn seems like a longshot on the surface given Robert Strong...

Yes, it is hard to tell what's really going on at the moment and I am not committed to the idea.

But the facts are this: Qyburn is the one who told Cersei he found a Gardener coin in Rugen's room. That coin was never shown. Taena is the one who told Cersei that Olenna kept a trunk of such coins for bribes. We don't know if either statement is true (no coin was ever actually produced and shown to Cersei, and Olenna keeping a trunk of coins that would easily implicate her is doubtful), we only know that these statement validate each other to implicate the Tyrells in Joffrey's murder. Without this information, Cersei would not have suspected them. We also know that Varys WANTS to provoke a Lannister-Tyrell rupture.

Finally, we know that Qyburn took over Varys's role incredibly easily, and that Varys still has access to his little birds and hidden passages because he used them to murder Pycelle and Kevan.

Robert Strong is certainly Qyburn's monster, but we don't know what he will do exactly. Perhaps he will win the trial for Cersei, but in doing so will help to increase general public hatred for her, thus pushing allies to Aegon's side.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Hmm. That's a good point about both of them implicating the Tyrells. Definitely is consistent with Varys' motives. I have a pet theory that Varys and Doran are working together, and I'm fine assuming Taena is probably Doran's, but accepting Qyburn into the equation is still something I'm having trouble accounting for. I can see him working for Varys, but it's just that Robert Strong component that gives me trouble, if Doran is involved. But you're right, we don't know exactly what will happen yet with RS, and the idea that his appearance will ultimately antogonize the Sand Snakes and the Dornish may be a little too predictable.

[marsyao]

I always wonder why Doran sent Oberyn to King's landing in first place, he shall knew his brother, and he shall knew one way or other, Oberyn will cause some big trouble there.

[Mithras]

I always wonder why Doran sent Oberyn to King's landing in first place, he shall knew his brother, and he shall knew one way or other, Oberyn will cause some big trouble there.

“Your father played that same game once, as I did before him,” said the prince. “We had ten years between us, so I had left the pools by the time he was old enough to play, but I would watch him when I came to visit Mother. He was so fierce, even as a boy. Quick as a water snake. I oft saw him topple boys much bigger than himself. He reminded me of that the day he left for King’s Landing. He swore that he would do it one more time, else I would never have let him go.”

Doran specifically sent him to topple the big boy (Gregor).

[marsyao]

I know, that means Doran actually wants Oberyn to make big trouble at King's landing since taking on the Mountain, win or loss, would mean big trouble, I just do not understand his motive, considering him always be so calculated and refuse to take a move before things are right.

[Dornish Vinegar]

I know, that means Doran actually wants Oberyn to make big trouble at King's landing since taking on the Mountain, win or loss, would mean big trouble, I just do not understand his motive, considering him always be so calculated and refuse to take a move before things are right.

It follows, then, that he thought the time was right. I lean towards him being willing to stir up trouble because Quentyn is on his way to Daenerys and they have Myrcella as a hostage, but there are holes in that logic given Doran's larger plan. I'm guessing his decision to strike at that particular moment will be clarified as more of his plan is unveiled.

[Mithras]

It follows, then, that he thought the time was right. I lean towards him being willing to stir up trouble because Quentyn is on his way to Daenerys and they have Myrcella as a hostage, but there are holes in that logic given Doran's larger plan. I'm guessing his decision to strike at that particular moment will be clarified as more of his plan is unveiled.

Oberyn dies before Quentyn takes his leave.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Oberyn dies much before Quentyn takes his leave.

I was never clear on the timeline of these two events, to my sorrow. Do you have anything that might clarify it?

[Pod The Rod]

Yes, it is hard to tell what's really going on at the moment and I am not committed to the idea.

But the facts are this: Qyburn is the one who told Cersei he found a Gardener coin in Rugen's room. That coin was never shown. Taena is the one who told Cersei that Olenna kept a trunk of such coins for bribes. We don't know if either statement is true (no coin was ever actually produced and shown to Cersei, and Olenna keeping a trunk of coins that would easily implicate her is doubtful), we only know that these statement validate each other to implicate the Tyrells in Joffrey's murder. Without this information, Cersei would not have suspected them. We also know that Varys WANTS to provoke a Lannister-Tyrell rupture.

This is often stated, but incorrect. The coin in question WAS in fact given to Cersei, we see her hold it in her hands, and examine it. We never see any proof of the link to Olenna, but we do see the coin itself.

[Hippocras]

This is often stated, but incorrect. The coin in question WAS in fact given to Cersei, we see her hold it in her hands, and examine it. We never see any proof of the link to Olenna, but we do see the coin itself.

Ok, sorry

Still, the idea that Olenna keeps a trunk of such coins is suspect. Qyburn himself could have planted that coin.

[The guy from the Vale]

Ok, sorry

Still, the idea that Olenna keeps a trunk of such coins is suspect. Qyburn himself could have planted that coin.

Why would Varys have to take the route via Qyburn? He could have left the coin there himself, in the knowledge that Lady Olenna has a trunk full of them so they would lead to suspicions in her direction.