Doran might have something up his sleave

[Osha13]

Doran states he is wary of Varys spies and GRRM has said Varys and Illyrio don't know of the Dornish marriage pact.

Didn't know that GRRM had said that. I just thought it was wierd that Varys had told Kevan Lannister about Aegon as Kevan lay dying, and then in Arianne Martell's WOW preview chapter, it is hinting at her going to see Aegon. Thought Varys might have had a hand in that. Also thought it would be interesting if Varys getting Aegon out of Kings Landing before the sack was really because of his Martell Blood as opposed to his Targaryen Blood.

[Fat Trell]

In that regard, it is interesting to make note of the various stops that Oberyn and Elia made on the way to visit the Lannisters. They stopped at Starfall, the Arbour, the Hightower, the Crakehalls and some house of the Shield Islands.

This list might be a clue to Southern alliances.

I doubt the Redwynes would betray Tommen unless the Tyrells do as well. Mace and Paxter are first cousins and seem to have a good relationship. The Hightowers are less certain but Mace is married to a Hightower. His children are the grandchildren of Lord Leyton. Betraying the Tyrells is tantamount to kinslaying.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Overall, I think Doran failed to comprehend that there's a tool for every task and a task for every tool.

Or that long waiting plans don't work.

Look at Varys and Littlefinger. They don't carefully plan: they adapt to their situation because they have all of their flanks covered.

Doran, otoh, walks straight and if something doesn't work out, everything is ruined. Like they said, he puts all of his eggs in one basket.

[Lady Arianne Martell]

I am disappointed in how all of the Martells keep getting continually screwed (granted, it is part bad luck (Elia and kids), part recklessness (Arianne, Oberyn, Quentyn).

To be honest, I just wish and pray that Arianne isn't going to be stupid enough to fall for Faegon.

Lord, I hope the foolish girl has learned her lesson. I love her to bits, but I admit that she's made some silly mistakes.

I see Obara and maybe Nymeria dying, but that's it.

Hopefully, Tyene, Ariane, and Trystane can survive the series.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Or that long waiting plans don't work.

Look at Varys and Littlefinger. They don't carefully plan: they adapt to their situation because they have all of their flanks covered.

Doran, otoh, walks straight and if something doesn't work out, everything is ruined. Like they said, he puts all of his eggs in one basket.

Well, yeah, to a certain extent.

He did change his plan when Viserys died, so he turned to Dany. And now that he has no word of Quentyn, he'll turn to Aegon.

So I wouldn't say he's not adaptable, just that he's not that good at it as Varys and LF :P

[Mithras]

What did Doran lose so far?

[The guy from the Vale]

What did Doran lose so far?

Oberyn and Quentyn. Possibly also Myrcella.

ETA: That said, we don't know Doran's plans in full yet. Calling him an idiot may be premature... but he sadly does look like one at the moment...

[Mithras]

Oberyn and Quentyn. Possibly also Myrcella.

ETA: That said, we don't know Doran's plans in full yet. Calling him an idiot may be premature... but he sadly does look like one at the moment...

Oberyn wished to crown Myrcella. He could have easily started a war and rally all the Dorne behind him and Doran might not be able to stop that as he stopped the Sandsnakes. We know that Dorne was not ready to defy the Great-Western Alliance which was quite strong and intact by that time. That council seat of Dorne is the grass and Doran sent his viper there with the intention of taking his revenge. I think Oberyn's survival or death is a win-win for Doran.

Quentyn was a good lad but he was practically an Yronwood. Perhaps Doran feared that after Quentyn marries that Yronwood girl, the Yronwoods might plot to kill Arianne and use him as a puppet prince. I think he was right about this.

Regarding the Dany mission, I agree with Bran Vras that Doran didnot want the mission to be succesful. He only wanted Quentyn to make the attempt. Remember, Dany is the one who turned Quentyn down.

Clean hands. In every case, Doran keeps his hands clean.

[Hippocras]

I am posting interesting material and important questions on the Darkstar grass snake thread. It is relevant here and could do with some discussion on that thread. Please stop by if this thread interests you, because that one should as well.

[Hippocras]

Oberyn wished to crown Myrcella. He could have easily started a war and rally all the Dorne behind him and Doran might not be able to stop that as he stopped the Sandsnakes. We know that Dorne was not ready to defy the Great-Western Alliance which was quite strong and intact by that time. That council seat of Dorne is the grass and Doran sent his viper there with the intention of taking his revenge. I think Oberyn's survival or death is a win-win for Doran.

Quentyn was a good lad but he was practically an Yronwood. Perhaps Doran feared that after Quentyn marries that Yronwood girl, the Yronwoods might plot to kill Arianne and use him as a puppet prince. I think he was right about this.

Regarding the Dany mission, I agree with Bran Vras that Doran didnot want the mission to be succesful. He only wanted Quentyn to make the attempt. Remember, Dany is the one who turned Quentyn down.

Clean hands. In every case, Doran keeps his hands clean.

I can agree with this

[Dornish Vinegar]

(Sorry for the long multiquote, playing catch-up)

In that regard, it is interesting to make note of the various stops that Oberyn and Elia made on the way to visit the Lannisters. They stopped at Starfall, the Arbour, the Hightower, the Crakehalls and some house of the Shield Islands.

This list might be a clue to Southern alliances.

An excellent addition to a possible newborn theory.

Playing to win sounds great, but Doran obviously doesn't line up with what the interpretation of that phrase means(in America at least). Doran doesn't take risks because he values winning more than he fears losing. Doran's version of playing to win seems to mean he acts on his own only when victory is certain.

The problem with is that victory is never certain in Westoros.

I'm not sure where this idea that Doran only acts when victory is certain comes from. The guy is not Walder Frey--I would argue that his caution is based more in a deliberate control of information and playing his cards extremely close to his chest than out of a waiting to see which way the building is falling before deciding which side of it to get on. Sending spears to the Trident when victory was not guaranteed for Rhaegar, sending Oberyn to Kings Landing to stir the pot, Quentyn to Daenerys, Lady Nym and Tyene to Kings Landing, etc.: these (with the exception of the spears to the Trident) are all actions based on a plan to get what he wants, not because he is sure that a Targaryen restoration is guaranteed to work out. A Targ restoration is by definition the riskiest thing, politically, anyone in Westeros could be doing, and he is doing it (or trying to). He is just tryna do it in a way that will mean the least risk for the innocents he is tasked as protector of.

I am disappointed in how all of the Martells keep getting continually screwed (granted, it is part bad luck (Elia and kids), part recklessness (Arianne, Oberyn, Quentyn).

To be honest, I just wish and pray that Arianne isn't going to be stupid enough to fall for Faegon.

Lord, I hope the foolish girl has learned her lesson. I love her to bits, but I admit that she's made some silly mistakes.

I see Obara and maybe Nymeria dying, but that's it.

Hopefully, Tyene, Ariane, and Trystane can survive the series.

I could not agree more. Arianne gets a lot of flak from readers who think she hasn't learned anything through aFfC and aDwD--I think she has (or at least started to--she is nowhere near ready for rule of Dorne yet). I am pulling for her so, so hard.

ETA: That said, we don't know Doran's plans in full yet. Calling him an idiot may be premature... but he sadly does look like one at the moment...

Indeed, indeeed! One of the things that defines Doran's rule in Dorne is that many Dornish, especially in the wake of Oberyn's death, think him weak and idiotic, precisely because they do not know his plans. We would do well to emphasize that we, as readers, should not fall into the same trap.

I am posting interesting material and important questions on the Darkstar grass snake thread. It is relevant here and could do with some discussion on that thread. Please stop by if this thread interests you, because that one should as well.

Hippocras, for my part, I am keeping tabs on your thread! I will contribute my thoughts sometime later today most likely, for what it's worth.

[Chebyshov]

I could not agree more. Arianne gets a lot of flak from readers who think she hasn't learned anything through aFfC and aDwD--I think she has (or at least started to--she is nowhere near ready for rule of Dorne yet). I am pulling for her so, so hard.

Same here, and

going by the TWOW sample chapters, she seems to think she's learned her lesson. "I was a foolish willful girl, playing at the game of thrones like a drunkard rolling dice."

"Pretty boys had ever been her weakness, particularly the ones who were dark and dangerous as well. 'That was before, when I was just a girl,' she told herself. 'I am a woman now, my father’s daughter.! I have learned that lesson.'"

[Mithras]

I think neither Arianne nor the Sandsnakes didnot learn anything. Can she change her nature like she changes her clothes? I don't think so. Besides, fAegon is another pretty boy who will woe Arianne.

[Hippocras]

I think neither Arianne nor the Sandsnakes didnot learn anything. Can she change her nature like she changes her clothes? I don't think so. Besides, fAegon is another pretty boy who will woe Arianne.

He's also several years younger. That might be enough for her to keep some distance.

As for me I suspect Dorne, if they side with Aegon, will actually use Myrcella to seal the deal, not Arianne. Myrcella is expendable to them in the long term, but in the short term can get Aegon installed in King's Landing without a fight. It is absolutely the best move to make that fits best with the style of both Doran and Varys, grab power, no war.

[Dornish Vinegar]

I think neither Arianne nor the Sandsnakes didnot learn anything. Can she change her nature like she changes her clothes? I don't think so. Besides, fAegon is another pretty boy who will woe Arianne.

As Chebyshov pointed out, at least in the case of Arianne,

she is clearly distancing herself from who she once was and what she sees as her "mistakes" of the past. Even if she has not learned as much as she thinks she has, it still suggests she is going to do what she can to think through her actions more as actions taking place in the larger context of the Game, which is improvement.

I guess I don't see it so much as a change of nature as just a process of growth and maturing. Honestly in a world where kids are (imo) acting way too old for their age, I consider Arianne one of the most real-world characters in the series.

Now, in the case of the Sand Snakes, we have a lot less to go off of in predicting how impulsive they're gonna be, but we do know that they swore their allegiance to Doran and his plans on the grave of their father. Given the esteem they have for Oberyn, I do not off hand assume their oaths are useless.

[Batbob45]

he might. sometime the most sucessful plan is when they least expect it. Doran has a long time to perfect a plan by looking at all the possible scenarios.

[Osha13]

Doran was able to get sensitive information from somewhere in Kings Landing. Somewhere that was close to Cersei. He found out about her plot to kill Trystane. Varys seems like the most likely source of that information to me. We don't know Varys' real allegiance, and maybe he was originally more loyal to Aegon over Danaerys and Viserys because Aegon has Martell Blood. Now that Danaerys has dragons, maybe he would consider a potential marriage between the two, but beforehand, he was for sending her to Khal Drogo and the Dothraki with no hope of crossing the narrow sea, while Aegon was being groomed to become King.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Doran was able to get sensitive information from somewhere in Kings Landing. Somewhere that was close to Cersei. He found out about her plot to kill Trystane. Varys seems like the most likely source of that information to me. We don't know Varys' real allegiance, and maybe he was originally more loyal to Aegon over Danaerys and Viserys because Aegon has Martell Blood. Now that Danaerys has dragons, maybe he would consider a potential marriage between the two, but beforehand, he was for sending her to Khal Drogo and the Dothraki with no hope of crossing the narrow sea, while IDEAAegon was being groomed to become King.

You have no idea how much I would like this if this were the case. NO. IDEA.

[Hippocras]

Doran was able to get sensitive information from somewhere in Kings Landing. Somewhere that was close to Cersei. He found out about her plot to kill Trystane. Varys seems like the most likely source of that information to me. We don't know Varys' real allegiance, and maybe he was originally more loyal to Aegon over Danaerys and Viserys because Aegon has Martell Blood. Now that Danaerys has dragons, maybe he would consider a potential marriage between the two, but beforehand, he was for sending her to Khal Drogo and the Dothraki with no hope of crossing the narrow sea, while Aegon was being groomed to become King.

Or, his source might have been Littlefinger, which puts a very different twist on things.

The thing that bugs me about Varys is that Doran seems to have been unaware of Aegon until now, and not part of his own nephew's concealment and education. It seems.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Doran was able to get sensitive information from somewhere in Kings Landing. Somewhere that was close to Cersei. He found out about her plot to kill Trystane. Varys seems like the most likely source of that information to me. We don't know Varys' real allegiance, and maybe he was originally more loyal to Aegon over Danaerys and Viserys because Aegon has Martell Blood. Now that Danaerys has dragons, maybe he would consider a potential marriage between the two, but beforehand, he was for sending her to Khal Drogo and the Dothraki with no hope of crossing the narrow sea, while Aegon was being groomed to become King.

I think it was Varys too. I think he was trying to win Doran's trust beforehand, so he'd be more likely to believe anything regarding Aegon.