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Doran might have something up his sleave


Poupsi

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Why would Varys have to take the route via Qyburn? He could have left the coin there himself, in the knowledge that Lady Olenna has a trunk full of them so they would lead to suspicions in her direction.

The thing is I suspect that information.

Olenna seems like a very smart lady. Why would she pay bribes in such an identifiable way as Taena claims? Would she have such a distinct trunk at all?

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The whole "Doran plays to win" contrasts completely with Varys and Littlefinger. Doran carefully plans things, but he hasn't had any result so far. Littlefinger takes the best of the chaos while Varys and Illyrio's plans seem to change more than the moon. Sometimes -but not all the times, definitely- plan things too much or too carefully is not a good thing.

I said this before, and it may not make too much sense, but I think Doran has a plot within a plot. His somewhat risky plans that haven't worked out are shielding something bigger I think.

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The thing is I suspect that information.

Olenna seems like a very smart lady. Why would she pay bribes in such an identifiable way as Taena claims? Would she have such a distinct trunk at all?

Olenna may be a very smart lady, but she also strikes me as potentially niggardly. I can actually see her pulling off that trick because she is smart... and unwilling to spend more money than absolutely necessary.

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The thing is I suspect that information.

Olenna seems like a very smart lady. Why would she pay bribes in such an identifiable way as Taena claims? Would she have such a distinct trunk at all?

Of course not. But Taena claims that she pays merchants that way, not bribes. Which indicates that somebody else placed that coin in Rugen's cell. Big surprise...

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I said this before, and it may not make too much sense, but I think Doran has a plot within a plot. His somewhat risky plans that haven't worked out are shielding something bigger I think.

I can see this.

There's an idea that he knows damn well that Aegon is fake (black dragon cyvasse piece being the clue) and is playing along for politics' sake. Meaning, it's worth it to him to prop up a fake Aegon if it means Arianne being queen and toppling the Lannisters.

That's just one idea, obviously. I agree with your broader conclusion.

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Doran is the Hedge Lord. Playing to win is exactly this. Even if a plot of his fails, he gains other things in that failure because he has already hedged his first plot with a contingency plot. He is the Benjamin Linus of Westeros. He always has a plan.



I am leaning the towards the idea that at some point, the Black Dragon became his primary goal and he used Viserys/Dany as a hedge as long as he can. Bran Vras has really good points on how Quentyn's mission was doomed from the beginning.



In fact, this is the approach of Team fAegon too. As far as Dany is concerned, Illyrio is still a genuine Targaryen supporter but we know that it is a big fat lie.


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Let's not forget the theory that Quentyn isn't really Doran's son. This would explain the half-hearted attempt to gain Dany's hand in marriage but it doesn't explain what the alternative purpose might have been. While I don't want another hidden son I do think that Quentyn's journey is lacking in believability and usefulness and a hidden, deeper purpose is needed to restore Doran's status as a player.


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