Martin seemingly confirms that Shae was planted by Varys

[Faint]

I think Shae was only useful to Varys as to Tyrion when Jaime walked into his room. Prior to that, if she was in his employee, she was just one more spy in his network.

[The Sleeper]

I think Shae in Tywin's bed was more than enough and it was certainly what Varys was counting on. Jaime's confession was simply gravy and not something Varys either foresaw or factored into his plans.

I think that barring Jaime's confession Tyrion would have been happy to just bolt. It would have been difficult for Varys to prod him and prompt him to Tywin's chamber without it. And I agree it did not factor into Varys' plan. It was an opportunity he seized as it presented itself.

Earlier I posted this:

It seems to me that people are making this more complicated than it needs to be.

There is a fact that tells us that Varys had already made plans to smuggle Tyrion out of the Red Keep. That is the ship that carried Tyrion, a convicted kingslayer, to Illyrio. This could not have been arranged at the last minute. It had to have been arranged beforehand. His reason? To drive a wedge between the Lannisters and the Tyrells. We know this because of the ancient Reach coins, planted in "Rugen's" chamber. This implicates the Tyrells in Tyrion's escape as well as Joffrey's murder. He also gets a lawful heir to the Rock, who would absolutely hate his family and potentially a valuable councilor for Aegon and Dany.

So where does Jaime fit into his plans? He doesn't. Both of them simply want to get Tyrion out for their own reasons. Now as Varys hears Jaime's confession and sees the state of mind Tyrion is in, he sees the opportunity to expand on his original plan. He would know that Shae is with Tywin, because spying on people is what he does. It might even be that Tywin acted like Tyrion and had Varys deliver Shae to his chamber. In any case putting Tyrion, Tywin and Shae in the same room cannot end well and while Varys may lose Tyrion the part of his plan to make it seem like Olenna Tyrell was behind Tyrion's escape and by implication the Purple Wedding cannot be compromised. So why not point Tyrion to his father's bedroom and see what happens?

I think I have accounted for everything.

[Paeon]

I think that Varys relying on Tyrion making his way to his father's room is a bit farfetched. But I do believe Varys planted Shae first into Tyrion's bed and then into Tywin's.

Varys planted Shae so that Shae could help Varys control Tywin or even kill Tywin at the right moment. She wasn't placed in the bed so that she could wake at the right moment which is just a ridiculous notion, but rather she was sleeping with Tywin in order to take him into confidence and gather knowledge for Varys.

It's very possible that she was Varys' agent from the beginning which would explain why Varys always seemed a proponent of Tyrion's relationship with her. Like when he left a naked Shae in his bedroom for Tyrion in aSoS. In that same scence Shae mentions that Varys did not allow her to keep her jewelry which would imply they were in contact during Tyrion's recovery after the battle of the Blackwater.

Tyrion running into her was a complete coincidence. If anything Varys would want to avoid Tyrion seeing Shae so that he would not interfere with Varys' plans.

I don't believe at all that Varys would be able to predict Tyrion's reaction to seeing Shae in his father's bed. Yeah sure he is "the spider" but he isn't all knowing. Considering the time it took for Tyrion to climb to Tywin's quarters would mean that Varys would also have to predict when Tywin would use the bathroom and have Tyrion freed with much time to spare. Also it assumes that Tywin is indefensible against a dwarf. Way too many what if's and it can be tossed out without a second thought.

[Mithras]

Tyrion could hear Brella’s snoring as he passed her cell. Shae complained of that, but it seemed a small enough price to pay. Varys had suggested the woman to him; in former days, she had run Lord Renly’s household in the city, which had given her a deal of practice at being blind, deaf, and mute.

Not only Shae but also Brella, the other handmaiden of Sansa after getting rid of Cersei’s spies, might be working for Varys.

That seemed to amuse the eunuch. “I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor. Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Oh, I feed him choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks I am his… just as I allow Cersei to believe I am hers.”

In King’s Landing, Brienne had found one of Sansa’s former maids doing washing in a brothel. “I served with Lord Renly before m’lady Sansa, and both turned traitor,” the woman Brella complained bitterly. “No lord will touch me now, so I have to wash for whores.” But when Brienne asked about Sansa, she said, “I’ll tell you what I told Lord Tywin. That girl was always praying. She’d go to sept and light her candles like a proper lady, but near every night she went off to the godswood. She’s gone back north, she has. That’s where her gods are.”

Now that Brella spied Renly and then Sansa, she is working in a brothel, possibly one of LF’s. It is possible that Brella might be one of the conduits of Varys to feed LF choice whispers. Maybe LF mistakenly thinks that Brella is his and his alone.

[Bloodrobin]

Faint, on 16 Jun 2014 - 11:10 AM, said: Not exactly. Shae was just gravy for getting Tyrion to kill Tywin. He was already on his way. What I think happened is that Varys moved the chest to put the crossbow in reach of him. Varys actively planned for Tyrion to kill Tywin, but I don't think he was counting on Shae.

He didn't need to be at the privy. All he had to do was walk in, see the crossbow, load it, and then kill Tywin with it. If anything, Shae may have been a complication and could have ruined it.

It seems likely that if Varys planned for Tyrion to kill Tywin would have required Tywin to be somewhat incapacitated. Tywin should easily be able to prevent Tyrion from getting the crossbow and killing him if he had been present in the bedroom. But it would be easy enough for Varys to ensure Tywin be on the privy. We've seen Tyrion himself do the same to Cersei with the help of a bit of medicine acquired from Maester Pycelle...

The maester’s medicines made an impressive display; dozens of pots sealed with wax, hundreds of stoppered vials, as many milkglass bottles, countless jars of dried herbs, each container neatly labeled in Pycelle’s precise hand. An orderly mind, Tyrion reflected, and indeed, once you puzzled out the arrangement, it was easy to see that every potion had its place. And such interesting things. He noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon’s dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow’s blood … Standing on his toes and straining upward, he managed to pull a small dusty bottle off the high shelf. When he read the label, he smiled and slipped it up his sleeve.

[...]

Is this the Cersei that Jaime sees? When she smiled, you saw how beautiful she was, truly. I loved a maid as fair as summer, with sunlight in her hair. He almost felt sorry for poisoning her. It was the next morning as he broke his fast that her messenger arrived. The queen was indisposed and would not be able to leave her chambers. Not able to leave her privy, more like . Tyrion made the proper sympathetic noises and sent word to Cersei to rest easy, he would treat with Ser Cleos as they’d planned.

Varys would not have needed to know that Jaime would spill his guts about Tysha. He could have assumed that Tyrion might want to confront Tywin anyway and have arranged for Shae to be there to "ratchet things up."

[Suzanna Stormborn]

“Both plans have virtues, but… look, if we try to swing around Lord Tywin’s host, we take the risk of being caught between him and the Kingslayer, and if we attack him… by all reports, he has more men than I do, and a lot more armored horse. The Greatjon says that won’t matter if we catch him with his breeches down, but it seems to me that a man who has fought as many battles as Tywin Lannister won’t be so easily surprised.”

AGoT - Cat

:cheers: Good one !!