The Death of BOTH Sweetrobin AND Harry the Heir

[Mithras]

Unless you have read subsequent books, then we have the characterization given in these books and what his character has said as guidelines. Simply, LF knows he can't sit there. Everybody knows that. There's a reason why he's Lord Protector, after all.

“We shall serve him lies and Arbor gold, and he’ll drink them down and ask for more, I promise you.”

He is serving me lies as well, Sansa realized.

This is the characterization given in these books.

[Colonel Green]

LF never talks about his real plans.

He does when he has to implement them.

Moreover, no convincing explanation has ever been offered for why the plan Littlefinger outlines at the end is not true, in its broad strokes (there are undoubtedly addendums, etc.; I expect Harry will not enjoy a long life, after he has served his role as a charismatic warrior king).

[Sword of the Morgan]

Bronze Yohn Royce would rather watch his house turn to dust then let a low born cunt like LF take the Eyrie the seat of house Aryn I refuse to believe all but a few houses of the Vale stand for it either. Remember there are still Aryns in Gulltown they are the rightful lords if HTH dies.

Hahaha...you sound like a character right out of the books.

[Bironic]

The Arryns of gulltown are looked down by other noble houses in the vale because they married merchants and other rich, but lowborn people. That's one of the reasons why the get along pretty well with Littlefingers rule. And there are other Arryns throughout the Vale who are not looked down by the nobility beacuse they never married into merchant houses, but those Arryns are poor.
If Harry and Sweetrobin die without issue I think there will be a conflict between different pretenders. Houses Royce and House Redfort seem to be natural allies, while others like House Waynwood, Hunter, Corbray, Belmore, Templeton, Grafton, Waxley, Lynderly, Royce of the Gates of the Moon and Arryn of Gulltown, will probably support Littlefinger. Sunderland will perhaps join FAegon, while Borrell could join Stannis.

[Lee-Sensei]

^I really doubt LF will have that much support.

[Harry the Hair]

^Agreed; LF's current plan has waaaaay too many ifs and maybes which makes me doubt it's his true plan at all.

[ambi76]

Well IMHO Harry the Heir will definitely die. Maybe he immediately grabs Sansa by the tits and she finally has had it with this motherfucking assholes around her motherfucking self and beats him to death with a frying pan. :devil:

Still hoping against hope that Sweetrobin makes it till the end. I like the poor boy. I guess someone has to.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

I think the OP is an entirely plausible plan for Littlefinger to have.

That said, I think Littlefinger's days of plans working out just great are probably numbered, and the days of Sansa's plans working out are drawing near.

[Colonel Green]

^Agreed; LF's current plan has waaaaay too many ifs and maybes which makes me doubt it's his true plan at all.

Every plan Littlefinger has ever implemented depends on numerous coincidences and genuine luck to succeed (and, because the author requires him to succeed, he's been very lucky; and even that has depended on a couple of fairly blatant cases of plot fiat). The plan he describes is frankly much simpler than many of the schemes he's already pulled off. He's a gambler by nature.

[Harry the Hair]

Every plan Littlefinger has ever implemented depends on numerous coincidences and genuine luck to succeed (and, because the author requires him to succeed, he's been very lucky; and even that has depended on a couple of fairly blatant cases of plot fiat). The plan he describes is frankly much simpler than many of the schemes he's already pulled off. He's a gambler by nature.

It's one thing to say that a dagger belongs to someone other than the actual owner and another to claim that within a year the majority of hostile Vale Lordlings will either die or become bffs with you. LF takes advantage of opportunity when it presents itself but he knows how and when to gamble and when to cut his losses; otherwise he wouldn't be a good Master of Coin. His Vale plot has plenty of weak points;

1. Sweetrobin is still alive (easily remedied but not without raising suspicion from the Lords Declarant).

Harry could very well say no to the betrothal.

Even in the betrothal goes through, someone else might challenge Harry's claim.

The marriage must need wait until Cersei is done and Sansa is safely widowed. -LF

the odds of that happening within a year are zero to none.

There is a strong possibility that none of the Lords Declarant would die within a year

The houses that are in debt might find an alternate source of financing than LF (say marry some rich merchant's daughter) so there goes the friendship idea

I believe he spoke the truth when he said:

I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now... it's a good thing that I thrive on chaos.

So already he has to change his plans; his time frame is severely restricted, and if he does indeed thrive in chaos then chaos must come to the Vale which once again will require time that he doesn't have. Also he says he hoped to have 5 years before Cersei's downfall and Sansa's marriage was supposed to occur after that... so he admits here that he didn't expect to control the Vale through Sansa's marriage to Harry for at least 4 years, which means that he would've needed Sweetrobin to be alive during that time so he could remain his Lord Protector and again there's no guarantee that he'll have more than a year of undisturbed rule over the Vale... so this makes me doubt how crucial the Vale is for him.

Even if Sansa is widowed and cleared of regicide, Cersei becomes powerless, the marriage goes through, Sweetrobin dies and no one challenges Harrold's claim, what possible indication is there that he would fight for a ruin of a castle in the middle of Winter? He could very well laugh at the idea and claim that he would sooner take a trip down the Moon door. Here we can see that LF is feeding her lies so that she would look at her match with Harry in a slightly more positive light.

The reasons listed above make me seriously doubt that he revealed his actual master plan. As far as I'm concerned the only hint we have of his true intentions is that he has a year to do whatever he plots. So far the Vale just looks like a safe place for him to hide Sansa for the time being.

[Colonel Green]

It's one thing to say that a dagger belongs to someone other than the actual owner and another to claim that within a year the majority of hostile Vale Lordlings will either die or become bffs with you.

But from what we see, he's already well on his way to accomplishing that. Three of the five are now buddying up to him (or otherwise within his influence). The fourth, Hunter, is the one he has the best reason to believe will soon be dead (he may even be goosing that, for all we know). That just leaves Redfort.

Sweetrobin is still alive (easily remedied but not without raising suspicion from the Lords Declarant)

Robert Arryn is chronically ill, and visibly in worsening health. Of all the people Littlefinger could murder, this is one that could be accomplished without attracting much suspicion. Indeed, "Harry the Heir"'s whole status indicates that people are aware of Robert's sickliness, if not quite how bad it is.

Harry could very well say no to the betrothal.

Okay, sure, but that's nowhere near as big a challenge as many other things he's done, particularly given that Sansa's beauty verges on a curse at this point, in terms of its ability to attract unwanted suitors.

Even in the betrothal goes through, someone else might challenge Harry's claim.

We have no evidence of that. "Harry the Heir" is the acknowledged heir by all of the most powerful lords of mountain and vale.

Concerning the fourth, that area is a mystery, but we really don't know how Littlefinger plans to deal with it. He clearly believes he can more forward, so I'm sure we'll learn.

There is a strong possibility that none of the Lords Declarant would die within a year

Already addressed above.

The houses that are in debt might find an alternate source of financing than LF (say marry some rich merchant's daughter) so there goes the friendship idea

If they were going to do that, would they not already have done so? In any event, and this I admit is suppositional, but the volume of debt that Littlefinger is describing is almost certainly well beyond what any merchant's daughter would bring in dowry.

So already he has to change his plans; his time frame is severely restricted, and if he does indeed thrive in chaos then chaos must come to the Vale which once again will require time that he doesn't have. Also he says he hoped to have 5 years before Cersei's downfall and Sansa's marriage was supposed to occur after that... so he admits here that he didn't expect to control the Vale through Sansa's marriage to Harry for at least 4 years, which means that he would've needed Sweetrobin to be alive during that time so he could remain his Lord Protector and again there's no guarantee that he'll have more than a year of undisturbed rule over the Vale... so this makes me doubt how crucial the Vale is for him.

Chaos isn't required in the Vale. His plans for the Vale thrive on orderly succession. He wants everywhere else in chaos, which makes the Vale more valuable.

And sure, there's no guarantee he'll be in charge for more than a year, but as I said, he's already most of the way there. There was no guarantee he could hold onto the job of Master of Coin, but he did. All of his plans hinge on such things. There was no guarantee that a 13-year-old girl with no history of athletics to speak of and aided only by a perpetual drunkard could scale down a cliff, but he hinged a plan on that.

As to the importance of the Vale, the Vale is the single-largest uncommitted military asset on the whole continent. Why on Earth would it not be important to his plans, if he plans to accomplish anything remotely significant? He's been systematic in engineering events to impoverish everyone else while keeping the Vale out of the war.

Even if Sansa is widowed and cleared of regicide, Cersei becomes powerless, the marriage goes through, Sweetrobin dies and no one challenges Harrold's claim, what possible indication is there that he would fight for a ruin of a castle in the middle of Winter? He could very well laugh at the idea and claim that he would sooner take a trip down the Moon door. Here we can see that LF is feeding her lies so that she would look at her match with Harry in a slightly more positive light.

First, Sansa doesn't need to be "cleared of regicide"; only people who support the Lannister regime care about that. Cersei doesn't need to become powerless, she needs to destroy her regime through incompetence, which she is doing, and no doubt will continue to do.

As to the main point, that's just military strategy minutiae. Littlefinger most likely wants to rule the continent, which will mean conquering the North, sooner or later.

[Harry the Hair]

But from what we see, he's already well on his way to accomplishing that. Three of the five are now buddying up to him (or otherwise within his influence). The fourth, Hunter, is the one he has the best reason to believe will soon be dead (he may even be goosing that, for all we know). That just leaves Redfort.

Thus far we know that Nestor Royce and Lyn Corbray are on his side, the rest he hopes would die. Anya Waynwood is not a sure bet and IIRC she is one of the people that LF hopes would die.

Robert Arryn is chronically ill, and visibly in worsening health. Of all the people Littlefinger could murder, this is one that could be accomplished without attracting much suspicion. Indeed, "Harry the Heir"'s whole status indicates that people are aware of Robert's sickliness, if not quite how bad it is.

The extent of Sweetrobin's illness isn't made public... yet, and both Alayne as well as Baelish go through great trouble to make him appear presentable. That being said, they are now at the Gates of the Moon so the Royces will most likely see just how ill he really is. But until then all the Lords Declarant would know is that Lysa Arryn died in suspicious circumstances and her son soon followed suit while Baelish's daughter got betrothed to someone next in line of succession...

Alternately Sweetrobin could die before the year is up and waaay before Alayne marries Harry (if she marries him at all), thus costing Baelish his status as the Lord Protector.

Basically his plan relies on Sweetrobin dying at the right time, at the right place... The place part is easy to arrange but the time part is not.

Okay, sure, but that's nowhere near as big a challenge as many other things he's done, particularly given that Sansa's beauty verges on a curse at this point, in terms of its ability to attract unwanted suitors.

That point is hard to debate because we haven't seen Harry first hand and we really don't know what it takes to charm him in to marriage. Also, Sansa doesn't seem particularly thrilled about the betrothal either she may sabotage their meeting.

We have no evidence of that. "Harry the Heir" is the acknowledged heir by all of the most powerful lords of mountain and vale.

Ah but there are several Arryn branches scattered throughout the Vale, we don't know how they would react to a Hardyng inheriting their family seat. That being said, should Harry become betrothed to Alayne the anti-LF Vale lords could choose to support another candidate. Remember LF had to offer a very large dowry to Anya Waynwood for her to risk Bronze-Yohn's wrath because of this match.

If they were going to do that, would they not already have done so?

Lyn Corbray just got married to a merchant's daughter (however that marriage was arranged by LF, I wonder how Lyn Corbray is going to pretend he hates LF when Bronze Yohn finds out he brokered that match), the Arryn branch in Gulltown did just that decades ago... The Iron Bank just started to call in the loans so now is the time for such marriages to occur.

Chaos isn't required in the Vale. His plans for the Vale thrive on orderly succession. He wants everywhere else in chaos, which makes the Vale more valuable.

On the contrary; if the lords of the Vale are busy squabbling between each other, they leave him in peace. His plan involves isolating Bronze Yohn, a very prominent and respected figure in the Vale, something drastic would need to happen for the other lords to oppose him. Remember that he managed to get the lords declarant to agree to grant him 1 year of undisturbed rule by getting ser Lyn to draw his sword during a parley. Also remember that LF expects there to be secret plots against him, that's why he wants ser Lyn to be openly hostile towards him. That doesn't sound like a stable and peaceful Vale...

First, Sansa doesn't need to be "cleared of regicide"; only people who support the Lannister regime care about that

The current High Sparrow strikes me as someone who'd care... possibly to the point of beating a confession out of her, like he did with Osney (or was it Osmund? whichever guy that was)

As to the main point, that's just military strategy minutiae. Littlefinger most likely wants to rule the continent, which will mean conquering the North, sooner or later.

But the North is conquered; it's currently under the crown's regime. Thus far, by acquiring the iron throne he would also acquire the North.

Something else that's interesting; LF likes to make his moves while being away from the affected region. "Always keep your foes confused" that also supports the idea that the Vale is not his target, but KL (maybe even the Reach) might be.

[Colonel Green]

Thus far we know that Nestor Royce and Lyn Corbray are on his side, the rest he hopes would die. Anya Waynwood is not a sure bet and IIRC she is one of the people that LF hopes would die.

No, Waynwood, Templeton and Belmore all showed up at Lyonel Corbray's wedding, which was considered a social surprise. Three down, two to go.

Basically his plan relies on Sweetrobin dying at the right time, at the right place... The place part is easy to arrange but the time part is not.

You just give him a big dose at the right moment, and he dies.

That point is hard to debate because we haven't seen Harry first hand and we really don't know what it takes to charm him in to marriage. Also, Sansa doesn't seem particularly thrilled about the betrothal either she may sabotage their meeting.

From what little we've been told, he likes beautiful women. Littlefinger presumably knows more about him, and thinks it's doable. As to the latter, that's totally irrelevant to whether it's Littlefinger's plan or not. Sansa could also easily betray him to the Royces, yet he clearly isn't planning that.

Lyn Corbray just got married to a merchant's daughter (however that marriage was arranged by LF, I wonder how Lyn Corbray is going to pretend he hates LF when Bronze Yohn finds out he brokered that match), the Arryn branch in Gulltown did just that decades ago... The Iron Bank just started to call in the loans so now is the time for such marriages to occur.

It was Lyonel. And the Gulltown Arryns became social nobodies for doing that. The other branches of House Arryn apart from the main are poor and not influential, hence, why we never hear about them. They're not in a position to challenge Harry, nor have we any indication that any of them intend it. And if they do, they can be easily put down.

On the contrary; if the lords of the Vale are busy squabbling between each other, they leave him in peace. His plan involves isolating Bronze Yohn, a very prominent and respected figure in the Vale, something drastic would need to happen for the other lords to oppose him.

As stated, he's already well on his way to winning over the lords of the Vale. And when the Harry the Heir plan goes through (theoretically, which is what we're discussing), their opinions won't matter anymore anyway. He'll just be one of his "son-in-law"'s councilors.

Also remember that LF expects there to be secret plots against him, that's why he wants ser Lyn to be openly hostile towards him. That doesn't sound like a stable and peaceful Vale...

That's other people creating problems, not him, and in any event, what he's describing is a precautionary measure.

The current High Sparrow strikes me as someone who'd care... possibly to the point of beating a confession out of her, like he did with Osney (or was it Osmund? whichever guy that was)

The current High Septon is no more likely to be around much longer than Cersei is, as far as Littlefinger's plans go.

But the North is conquered; it's currently under the crown's regime. Thus far, by acquiring the iron throne he would also acquire the North.

Something else that's interesting; LF likes to make his moves while being away from the affected region. "Always keep your foes confused" that also supports the idea that the Vale is not his target, but KL (maybe even the Reach) might be.

How, pray tell, is Littlefinger supposed to "target" KL and the Reach, if not with the Vale's army? He's gone to enormous lengths to acquire this pristine military asset. The idea that the Vale is just a "safe place" is laughable. He could have stashed Sansa anywhere.

[Harry the Hair]

No, Waynwood, Templeton and Belmore all showed up at Lyonel Corbray's wedding, which was considered a social surprise. Three down, two to go.

That just shows that marrying someone with low birth and loads of cash is becoming acceptable now. Notice how the Gulltown Arryns did that a while ago and got the cold shoulder from the rest of their kin, times have changed now.

You just give him a big dose at the right moment, and he dies.

And what if he dies before the year is up?

They're not in a position to challenge Harry, nor have we any indication that any of them intend it. And if they do, they can be easily put down.

"Easily" is a strong word. Wouldn't it be easier to just turn down the betrothal to Alayne and keep the Vale from civil war?

That's other people creating problems, not him, and in any event, what he's describing is a precautionary measure.

"Always keep you hands clean." It wouldn't be the first time that LF got other people to do his dirty work for him. Precautionary or not, he knows the plots will happen.

The current High Septon is no more likely to be around much longer than Cersei is, as far as Littlefinger's plans go.

Oh I strongly disagree. The High Sparrow is there to see both Lannisters and the Tyrells dethroned. In any case, even if he would die, some other religious fanatic would take over.

How, pray tell, is Littlefinger supposed to "target" KL and the Reach, if not with the Vale's army?

How did he target everyone else without the Vale's army? He mentioned the war of the 3 queens, more chaos is coming and he's gonna cash in on it like he always does.

[Lee-Sensei]

No, Waynwood, Templeton and Belmore all showed up at Lyonel Corbray's wedding, which was considered a social surprise. Three down, two to go.

That doesn't necessarily mean they support LF, anymore than the Manderly and the other Northern Lords at Ramsays wedding support Roose Bolton.

[Colonel Green]

That doesn't necessarily mean they support LF, anymore than the Manderly and the other Northern Lords at Ramsays wedding support Roose Bolton.

The people who didn't support Littlefinger (or the idea of the marriage) made a point of shunning the wedding.

And what if he dies before the year is up?

Seeing as Littlefinger is controlling his medication, presumably with an eye to killing him at the right moment, dubious. It could happen, sure, but lots of things could happen. Ned could have asked more questions about the dagger lie, but he didn't. Tyrion and Tywin could have remembered to act against Littlefinger, but they didn't. Sansa could have plummeted to her death trying to escape King's Landing, or gotten caught trying to get to the Godswood to meet Dontos, or a million other things could have happened, but they didn't. "Could" is not an argument against it being his plan, since every plan, especially his, have such variables.

"Easily" is a strong word. Wouldn't it be easier to just turn down the betrothal to Alayne and keep the Vale from civil war?

There is no threat of civil war, and "easily" perfectly describes putting down a few minor, impoverished knightly houses.

"Always keep you hands clean." It wouldn't be the first time that LF got other people to do his dirty work for him. Precautionary or not, he knows the plots will happen.

I have no idea what you're even arguing here.

Oh I strongly disagree. The High Sparrow is there to see both Lannisters and the Tyrells dethroned. In any case, even if he would die, some other religious fanatic would take over.

So? The High Sparrow's movement will be every bit as consumed by the coming civil war as anybody else.

How did he target everyone else without the Vale's army? He mentioned the war of the 3 queens, more chaos is coming and he's gonna cash in on it like he always does.

There are limits to ever tool kit. Littlefinger's previous schemes hinged on bureaucratic maneuvers, small manipulations with large ripples, etc, allowing him to advance up the bureaucracy and into a few paper titles. You can't conquer a continent that way.

[Harry the Hair]

Seeing as Littlefinger is controlling his medication, presumably with an eye to killing him at the right moment, dubious. It could happen, sure, but lots of things could happen. Ned could have asked more questions about the dagger lie, but he didn't. Tyrion and Tywin could have remembered to act against Littlefinger, but they didn't. Sansa could have plummeted to her death trying to escape King's Landing, or gotten caught trying to get to the Godswood to meet Dontos, or a million other things could have happened, but they didn't. "Could" is not an argument against it being his plan, since every plan, especially his, have such variables.

Exactly my point; a million things could happen that would foil his supposed plot, which makes me doubt that's his plot at all.

There is no threat of civil war, and "easily" perfectly describes putting down a few minor, impoverished knightly houses.

Seriously? You think turning down a betrothal to LF's daughter is worse than angering his bannermen?

I have no idea what you're even arguing here.

LF has Lyn spy on his possible enemies so he knows when it's time to ditch the Vale.

So? The High Sparrow's movement will be every bit as consumed by the coming civil war as anybody else.

I don't know how that's supposed to prove he'll be powerless soon. All I'm gonna say is that it took Maegor the cruel a lot of work to dethrone the faith... and he had a dragon and a united kingdom.

There are limits to ever tool kit. Littlefinger's previous schemes hinged on bureaucratic maneuvers, small manipulations with large ripples, etc, allowing him to advance up the bureaucracy and into a few paper titles. You can't conquer a continent that way.

But that's exactly how he'll do it. He'll use that very tool kit to put someone of his choosing on the iron throne. Notice we went from a war of 5 kings to a war of 3 queens; the number of possible monarchs is dwindling.

[Lee-Sensei]

The people who didn't support Littlefinger (or the idea of the marriage) made a point of shunning the wedding.

You missed my point.:P We don't know who supports LF and who doesn't. Manderly went to Ramsays wedding. It doesn't mean he supports the Boltons.

[Colonel Green]

Exactly my point; a million things could happen that would foil his supposed plot, which makes me doubt that's his plot at all.

Your point is nonsensical, because, as I already pointed out, "a million things could happen" describes every plot. If that was a legitimate objection, nobody would ever plot anything.

Seriously? You think turning down a betrothal to LF's daughter is worse than angering his bannermen?

If Harry wants to marry "Alayne" and has the support of the big names, allowing some minor knightly houses (whose objections aren't even based on anything in the text, as yet) to boss him around would be a massive show of weakness. The Lord of the Eyrie needs a firm hand.

LF has Lyn spy on his possible enemies so he knows when it's time to ditch the Vale.

Like I said, everything we've seen shows increasing acceptance of his rule in the Vale. It makes zero sense that he would want to leave.

I don't know how that's supposed to prove he'll be powerless soon. All I'm gonna say is that it took Maegor the cruel a lot of work to dethrone the faith... and he had a dragon and a united kingdom.

He didn't really have a united kingdom, though. He had a bunch of enemies, because he was a tyrant. And the current High Septon has nothing like the resources of the Faith Militant in Jaehaerys' day.

But that's exactly how he'll do it. He'll use that very tool kit to put someone of his choosing on the iron throne. Notice we went from a war of 5 kings to a war of 3 queens; the number of possible monarchs is dwindling.

The war over the throne has moved well beyond palace intrigues. Indeed, there's soon not going to be a "palace" at all, the way the government is disintegrating. Littlefinger is putting himself in control of the continent's largest remaining military asset, so that he'll have an army, the major means of projecting power he has heretofore lacked. You can't take and maintain a throne without one.

You missed my point. :P We don't know who supports LF and who doesn't. Manderly went to Ramsays wedding. It doesn't mean he supports the Boltons.

I didn't miss your point. My point was that the contexts of those weddings are very different.

[Lee-Sensei]

I didn't miss your point. My point was that the contexts of those weddings are very different.

I'm not quite sure what you're gettig at. People have showed up to Ramsays wedding that are plotting against the Boltons. For all we know, the LD's are plotting against LF.