Plausible Aegon at the Tower of Joy (Theory / Experiment)

[Le Cygne]

A story being complex doesn't mean that it doesn't follow the basic recipes for building a narartive. You already have a mystery, R+L, subtly hinted at, if you want another mystery, you give it its own hints and you don't have it clash with the first one. If R+L was advertised more clearly, it could serve as a red herring to divert attention from the true royal child in the tower, but this is not the case. The only hint that might tie Aegon to ToJ is the KG presence signifying someone with the highest claim to the throne at ToJ but all the other hints point towards Lyanna, blue roses and bed of blood as being the mystery.

All your points are good, but I get into the writing side of things, and this stands out, too. He just wouldn't have done this, he's too good a writer.

[WeaselPie]

Aegon being at the ToJ does not clash with R+L=J at all.

In fact, it is the most plausible reason for the KG being there, without incessant theorizing about the status of unborn children, secret polygamous marriages, etc.

It even explains the mysterious "they."

It also explains a wetnurse being handy.

Believing Aegon was at the ToJ does not threaten, in the least, any belief of R+L=J. The only thing it might threaten is a belief that Aegon is well and truly dead, and we already know GRRM left that door open on purpose.

ETA... and for the hundredth time, there were two princes in the tower in the WotR. Would not be the first time GRRM took a note from history and twisted it for his own story.

[MtnLion]

Aegon being at the ToJ does not clash with R+L=J at all.

If Aegon is present then Ned knows that he is not dead. Unfortunately, Ned thinks of Aegon as dead. Dead. Dead. Aegon is not at the tower. The king is Jon. That is the reason that the Kingsguard stand and fight, citing their vow. That is the reason that Ned thinks highly of them, they paid the ultimate price to keep their vow. Protect and defend the king, dying for him if need be.

[Ygrain]

If Aegon is present then Ned knows that he is not dead. Unfortunately, Ned thinks of Aegon as dead. Dead. Dead. Aegon is not at the tower. The king is Jon. That is the reason that the Kingsguard stand and fight, citing their vow. That is the reason that Ned thinks highly of them, they paid the ultimate price to keep their vow. Protect and defend the king, dying for him if need be.

And if Ned doesn't recognize Aegon and Jon is not legit, then he cannot think of the KG as the shining examples of their order because they are not protecting the king by their stay at ToJ.

[MtnLion]

And if Ned doesn't recognize Aegon and Jon is not legit, then he cannot think of the KG as the shining examples of their order because they are not protecting the king by their stay at ToJ.

That is correct, the only way to justify Ned's thoughts of these three Kingsguard is if they are guarding a king, and Ned must recognize that fact.

[Little Member]

The problem with this sneaking Aegon out before the sack theory is Elia. You have been given news that people are coming to kill you and your two cildren and your babe is to be switched out for safety. WTF? "And me and my daughter are to be left to just sit here and die?" would be what I'd be saying. There's no way you're getting Aegon out without his mother knowing. And if she knows, there's no way she's just gonna sit idly and accept her fate and more importantly, her daughter's. This would be the case whether the switch occurs last minute or last year! My theory neatly ties all things, but one. I have posted it on several different threads and have yet to get a serious review of it. Jon is Aegon. Elia's infant was Visenya. The fly in my ointment is the lie. Why claim Visenya was a male? I need proof Elia's life was at risk if she did not produce a male heir. This is not unprecedented in history. How many wives did King Henry VIII kill for not producing male heirs? How many stories are out there of Noble men cheating on their wives to get a son? Elia would never have been an obstacle to the switch for a switch never occurred. The KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar was there to witness the birth of his child with Lyanna. He had to know the sex so he would know if he'd have to do this again or not. I think it was his full intent to switch his bastard boy with his daughter, but the sack occurred preventing him from returning to KL. And Jon shows up telling Rhaegar that Robert's army is closing in. Rhaegar either leaves before he can witness the birth, or he and Lyanna both tell Ned to keep the child safe. I believe Rhaegar leaves with his KG prior to his child's birth. Which clears the way for Ned to leave with the heir w/o KG escort. Now, you might ask why Rhaegar and the KG leave Ned alive? They are assessing the situation. The city is being sacked, an army is descending upon them. They may be thinking to try and flee. I think their goal is to reach White Harbour which is still loyal to the king at this point. Rhaegar may have arranged with Ned to rendezvous with him at White Harbour with Aegon, assuming Rhaegar did witness his son's birth. I think I read somewhere that Robert cut off Rhaegar's retreating forces at the Trident. If Rhaegar was thinking of his son and hoping to rebuild at White Harbour, he would not have been fighting in his prime. If he thinks his wife dead from the sack of the city, and his baby mama dead at the ToJ, he already has two mortal wounds before he even gets met in battle. The only thing he has left to hold onto at this point is the hope of his heir and making a new kingdom for him. But Robert is too strong with fury. He blindsides the prince knocking him off his horse. A few moments later, Rhaegar's done. Seeing the fallen prince, White Harbour changes it's banner. Ned gets news of White Harbour on his way to the Bite. He now knows he must change the identity of Aegon, that he'll find no shelter at White Harbour. He arranges a ride across the Bite with a fisherman and his daughter. He convinces the woman to say he sired the child off her if anyone asks and she agrees. She even names the boy Jon after Jon Arryn, lord of the Vale. Ned begins touring the countryside creating the backstory of how this child is his. Trying to get as many people as possible to confirm it. First, at the Sisters, then at White Harbour, then across the Vale to Jon Arryn at the Eyrie. Then back west to the Karstarks, until finally back to Winterfell. By this time the story of Jon being Ned's bastard is well entrenched in the North. Like I said, the fly in my ointment is that there is no established threat upon Elia if she doesn't produce a male heir.

[sweetsunray]

ETA... and for the hundredth time, there were two princes in the tower in the WotR. Would not be the first time GRRM took a note from history and twisted it for his own story.

But he did the princes in the tower twist with Bran and Rickon Stark already

[Ygrain]

But he did the princes in the tower twist with Bran and Rickon Stark already

And the princes in the tower were not a secret, everyone knew they were there.

[sweetsunray]

The problem with this sneaking Aegon out before the sack theory is Elia. You have been given news that people are coming to kill you and your two cildren and your babe is to be switched out for safety. WTF? "And me and my daughter are to be left to just sit here and die?" would be what I'd be saying. There's no way you're getting Aegon out without his mother knowing. And if she knows, there's no way she's just gonna sit idly and accept her fate and more importantly, her daughter's. This would be the case whether the switch occurs last minute or last year! My theory neatly ties all things, but one. I have posted it on several different threads and have yet to get a serious review of it. Jon is Aegon. Elia's infant was Visenya. The fly in my ointment is the lie. Why claim Visenya was a male? I need proof Elia's life was at risk if she did not produce a male heir. This is not unprecedented in history. How many wives did King Henry VIII kill for not producing male heirs? How many stories are out there of Noble men cheating on their wives to get a son? Elia would never have been an obstacle to the switch for a switch never occurred. The KG were at the ToJ because Rhaegar was there to witness the birth of his child with Lyanna. He had to know the sex so he would know if he'd have to do this again or not. I think it was his full intent to switch his bastard boy with his daughter, but the sack occurred preventing him from returning to KL. And Jon shows up telling Rhaegar that Robert's army is closing in. Rhaegar either leaves before he can witness the birth, or he and Lyanna both tell Ned to keep the child safe. I believe Rhaegar leaves with his KG prior to his child's birth. Which clears the way for Ned to leave with the heir w/o KG escort. Now, you might ask why Rhaegar and the KG leave Ned alive? They are assessing the situation. The city is being sacked, an army is descending upon them. They may be thinking to try and flee. I think their goal is to reach White Harbour which is still loyal to the king at this point. Rhaegar may have arranged with Ned to rendezvous with him at White Harbour with Aegon, assuming Rhaegar did witness his son's birth. I think I read somewhere that Robert cut off Rhaegar's retreating forces at the Trident. If Rhaegar was thinking of his son and hoping to rebuild at White Harbour, he would not have been fighting in his prime. If he thinks his wife dead from the sack of the city, and his baby mama dead at the ToJ, he already has two mortal wounds before he even gets met in battle. The only thing he has left to hold onto at this point is the hope of his heir and making a new kingdom for him. But Robert is too strong with fury. He blindsides the prince knocking him off his horse. A few moments later, Rhaegar's done. Seeing the fallen prince, White Harbour changes it's banner. Ned gets news of White Harbour on his way to the Bite. He now knows he must change the identity of Aegon, that he'll find no shelter at White Harbour. He arranges a ride across the Bite with a fisherman and his daughter. He convinces the woman to say he sired the child off her if anyone asks and she agrees. She even names the boy Jon after Jon Arryn, lord of the Vale. Ned begins touring the countryside creating the backstory of how this child is his. Trying to get as many people as possible to confirm it. First, at the Sisters, then at White Harbour, then across the Vale to Jon Arryn at the Eyrie. Then back west to the Karstarks, until finally back to Winterfell. By this time the story of Jon being Ned's bastard is well entrenched in the North. Like I said, the fly in my ointment is that there is no established threat upon Elia if she doesn't produce a male heir.

Doesn't fit the timeline: first there is the battle of the Trident where Rhaegar dies, then there is the Sack of KL (so Rhaegar's dead before the sack) and then Ned goes to the ToJ.

[MtnLion]

The problem with this sneaking Aegon out before the sack theory is Elia. You have been given news that people are coming to kill you and your two cildren and your babe is to be switched out for safety. WTF? "And me and my daughter are to be left to just sit here and die?" would be what I'd be saying. There's no way you're getting Aegon out without his mother knowing. And if she knows, there's no way she's just gonna sit idly and accept her fate and more importantly, her daughter's. This would be the case whether the switch occurs last minute or last year! My theory neatly ties all things, but one. I have posted it on several different threads and have yet to get a serious review of it. Jon is Aegon. Elia's infant was Visenya. The fly in my ointment is the lie. Why claim Visenya was a male? I need proof Elia's life was at risk if she did not produce a male heir. This is not unprecedented in history.

Had my attention . . . for a bit. Here you go:

Ashara had a male child that had light blond hair at the same time that Elia gave birth to a stillborn girl. Yes, there is tremendous pressure of Elia to produce a male heir, and Ashara had a bastard male babe, so they switch the babes before anyone notices. Ashara then returns to Starfall, and was there throughout the war.

Ned arrives bringing Dawn, and Ashara has lost a brother. But, she wants news about Elia and her children, and Ned doesn't know that he should really soften the blow. He tells her of the ruin of Aegon's skull, not knowing that it is Ashara's child. She goes into a deep depression and it is not questioned why or if she would commit suicide.

In the meantime, Varys is laying his little ploy. He has spirited Aegon from the capital to Essos, and needs a mother for his upbringing. Secretly contacting Ashara and making arrangements to have a ship waiting for her to take her plunge . . .

That is my cracked pottery. ;)

[sweetsunray]

And the princes in the tower were not a secret, everyone knew they were there.

Exactly: the mystery has always been what exactly happened to them and who murdered them, after they were locked up in the tower "for their own safety waiting for the eldest to be crowned". There is no confirmation on the remains and the actual order or murderer. Many years later a young man returned from Flanders claiming to be the young prince, and that there had been a switch when the youngest prince was given up to Richard III. His claim was never affirmed.

[WeaselPie]

You can put air quotes around lots of phrases GRRM's POV characters use. Ned remembers the red ruin of "Rhaegar's" infant son's skull... a fierce reminded of what Robert does to Targ children. Isn't that part of the whole R+L=J theorizing?

And I'm not hearing any new arguments here. Everything else has been discussed ad nauseum, and since we do not KNOW anything for sure, there are compelling theories on all sides. If you have a personal pet theory, that's fine, but it's still just a theory.

Same as this. Which is, to use the OP's phrase... plausible.

ETA to my last thought, Aegon being at the ToJ also explains the multiple promises Ned made. Maybe Lyanna asked Ned to promise to keep Aegon safe as a ward. And he obviously didn't. Say he sent him off somewhere "safe" and simply hoped he lived unmurdered. He wouldn't send ravens and letters and spies to check on him, that would be idiotic.

Ned would know the Targs were targets for death, maybe he simply hoped the boy would be safe (promise to Lyanna). He was already enraged at the deaths even before he found Laynna. His reaction to Dany's assassination plot negates your argument about his lack of concern about the fate of the Targ children, and to our knowledge he never even met Dany. Certainly, he knew that if Aegon was known to be alive, he would be the first hit Robert would order.

[WeaselPie]

Had my attention . . . for a bit. Here you go:

Ashara had a male child that had light blond hair at the same time that Elia gave birth to a stillborn girl. Yes, there is tremendous pressure of Elia to produce a male heir, and Ashara had a bastard male babe, so they switch the babes before anyone notices. Ashara then returns to Starfall, and was there throughout the war.

Ned arrives bringing Dawn, and Ashara has lost a brother. But, she wants news about Elia and her children, and Ned doesn't know that he should really soften the blow. He tells her of the ruin of Aegon's skull, not knowing that it is Ashara's child. She goes into a deep depression and it is not questioned why or if she would commit suicide.

In the meantime, Varys is laying his little ploy. He has spirited Aegon from the capital to Essos, and needs a mother for his upbringing. Secretly contacting Ashara and making arrangements to have a ship waiting for her to take her plunge . . .

That is my cracked pottery. ;)

Plausible too. And a great twist. I've bounced this around too, to much of the usual haha-ing.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Interesting not only the topic but the response to it . With one type you manage to fire up the FAegon people and the R+L=J people.Aegon being at the TOJ does not invalidate Jon being the son of Rhaegar . Now the topic it's plausible ,Save the heir , crown him if he dies (the same orders left by Stannis when he marched on Deepwood Motte) , raise the realm for him if they fail that would be his orders to Arthur and Gerold .Did he forget Rhaenys ? Yes hindsight is always 20/20 , Eddard during his arrest forgot about Jon.

[Ser Duncan the Small]

Had my attention . . . for a bit. Here you go:

Ashara had a male child that had light blond hair at the same time that Elia gave birth to a stillborn girl. Yes, there is tremendous pressure of Elia to produce a male heir, and Ashara had a bastard male babe, so they switch the babes before anyone notices. Ashara then returns to Starfall, and was there throughout the war.

Ned arrives bringing Dawn, and Ashara has lost a brother. But, she wants news about Elia and her children, and Ned doesn't know that he should really soften the blow. He tells her of the ruin of Aegon's skull, not knowing that it is Ashara's child. She goes into a deep depression and it is not questioned why or if she would commit suicide.

In the meantime, Varys is laying his little ploy. He has spirited Aegon from the capital to Essos, and needs a mother for his upbringing. Secretly contacting Ashara and making arrangements to have a ship waiting for her to take her plunge . . .

That is my cracked pottery. ;)

Septa Lemore= Lady Ashara? I've heard this and thought about it. I feel like it would have been revealed with the piecing together of Jon Connington and Aegon being alive though.

[WeaselPie]

Septa Lemore= Lady Ashara? I've heard this and thought about it. I feel like it would have been revealed with the piecing together of Jon Connington and Aegon being alive though.

No so much. There are some holes in that theory, but aren't there in all theories? Holes don't mean proof against.

Anyway, if Ashara took Aegon away, she would have been "equipped" to breastfeed having just been pregnant. And "giving up" Aegon to be tutored, guarded and warded by JonCon while he was still a young boy still makes sense.

And GRRM reveals things when he wants them revealed, so that's not even really a consideration.

[Little Member]

That is correct, the only way to justify Ned's thoughts of these three Kingsguard is if they are guarding a king, and Ned must recognize that fact.

Like there is no precedence of KG being places the king is not. Jaime is at Riiverrun, is the king? Arrys Oakheart was in Sunspear, was the king? Is Balon Swann off to Snspear because that's where the king is? Let's give it a rest that KG only means the king is there! There are seven members of KG at anytime. So, why aren't the other four there too, if KG must be in the presence of the king at all times?

[Ygrain]

Like there is no precedence of KG being places the king is not. Jaime is at Riiverrun, is the king? Arrys Oakheart was in Sunspear, was the king? Is Balon Swann off to Snspear because that's where the king is? Let's give it a rest that KG only means the king is there! There are seven members of KG at anytime. So, why aren't the other four there too, if KG must be in the presence of the king at all times?

There are not. At the time of the ToJ showdown, there are only three KG left who remained alive and loyal. When Jaime is at Riverrun, Arys and Balon in Dorne, Loras at Dragonstone etc., there are always some other KG available who are carrying out their sworn duty. The instances when the king has no KG with him are rare and such when the KG are physically unable to reach him (when Aerys is held prisoner at Duskendale, or when Dany cannot be located). This doesn't apply to Viserys, and the three KG know that he has only WIllem Darry with him, who is not of Kingsguard. Hence, the first duty of the Kingsguard is not being fulfilled.

[Ser Duncan the Small]

No so much. There are some holes in that theory, but aren't there in all theories? Holes don't mean proof against.

Anyway, if Ashara took Aegon away, she would have been "equipped" to breastfeed having just been pregnant. And "giving up" Aegon to be tutored, guarded and warded by JonCon while he was still a young boy still makes sense.

And GRRM reveals things when he wants them revealed, so that's not even really a consideration.

I agree, I'm a R+L=Jer, there are many holes in that theory but we wouldn't be discussing it if we had 100% proof it was true.

If Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne I think it makes more sense to have that figured out at the same time or when Aegon plays his cyvasse game with Tyrion and explains it all. GRRM revealing the rightfull heir to the 7 kingdoms still being alive along with the former Hand and Lord of Griffins Roost and not Lady Ashara because he just doesn't want to is silly. So it's absolutely a consideration. Unless we are believing that Jon Con and Aegon don't know she's Ashara I suppose.

Aegon was also approximately a year old so unless we're still thinking Ashara had a stillborn babe to be equipped for breastfeeding, on top of giving up her first born to Elia.

[WeaselPie]

I agree, I'm a R+L=Jer, there are many holes in that theory but we wouldn't be discussing it if we had 100% proof it was true.

If Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne I think it makes more sense to have that figured out at the same time or when Aegon plays his cyvasse game with Tyrion and explains it all. GRRM revealing the rightfull heir to the 7 kingdoms still being alive along with the former Hand and Lord of Griffins Roost and not Lady Ashara because he just doesn't want to is silly. So it's absolutely a consideration. Unless we are believing that Jon Con and Aegon don't know she's Ashara I suppose.

Aegon was also approximately a year old so unless we're still thinking Ashara had a stillborn babe to be equipped for breastfeeding, on top of giving up her first born to Elia.

And as I said before, GRRM reveals stuff when he wants/needs to. Maybe it wasn't the time... it would have opened up another whole plotline, and we know he's saving certain things for a big reveal.

As for the while Elia/Ashara/traded babies/switching babies/wetnurse availability/the practices of breasfeeding in Westeros - lots of blanks to fill in, but also lots of scenarios that are plausible.

I'm on the fence about Ashara/Lemore but GRRM went out of his way to tell us she had the stomach of a woman who had given birth in the past. Strange clue for a random Septa.