[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

When trying to figure Jons nameday out, and when in a year it takes place,compared to Robb's, we assume what Jon is presented to be. We're looking at the nameday Jon is said to have.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Rhaenys, I don't know if you've seen this version of the timeline, and I don't know how accurate it is, but it mentions Jon and Robb's name days though it would be odd if they were so (at least IN story, not 'when it really was'):

Timeline in Excel

Jon supposedly turns 15 August 2nd, and Robb September 13th. That just cannot be because Cat thinks of Robb as older.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rhaenys, I don't know if you've seen this version of the timeline, and I don't know how accurate it is, but it mentions Jon and Robb's name days though it would be odd if they were so (at least IN story, not 'when it really was'):

Timeline in Excel

Jon supposedly turns 15 August 2nd, and Robb September 13th. That just cannot be because Cat thinks of Robb as older.

I am a contributor to that timeline :P and when the last changed placed the namedays as they are now, that drew my attention, and inspired me to research and make this thread.

The people who had edited the file prior to me originally had placed Robbs nameday first, with as only reason "he must be older than Jon". Free that, someone placed Robbs nameday later than Jons, because the events in Clash seemed to demand that. When I was working on fixing a mistake from Clash, I noticed the difference, and started doing some research.

But that one thing, that it seems that Catelyn thinks of Robb as older, that is still a bit vague.. it is suggested, but then a little while later, her reasoning goes against that.

[joluoto2]

Obviously this thread assumes that Ned is indeed Jon's father.

I think it's entirely possible that Jon is the elder of the two. We don't know that much about when exactly he was born in relation to Robb, other than the fact that the two are pretty close in age.

Cat's reaction to bastards was perfectly typical for a woman of her station.

Even if Ned isn't Jon's father and is lying to cover something out he would have said Jon is older than Robb if it was possible at all, since then he wouldn't hurt Cat as much (still hurt, but then at least Ned hadn't been unfaithful). So the fact that Ned says Jon is younger mean there was no way to claim he was older.

[Ghost's Shadow]

I am a contributor to that timeline :P and when the last changed placed the namedays as they are now, that drew my attention, and inspired me to research and make this thread.

The people who had edited the file prior to me originally had placed Robbs nameday first, with as only reason "he must be older than Jon". Free that, someone placed Robbs nameday later than Jons, because the events in Clash seemed to demand that. When I was working on fixing a mistake from Clash, I noticed the difference, and started doing some research.

But that one thing, that it seems that Catelyn thinks of Robb as older, that is still a bit vague.. it is suggested, but then a little while later, her reasoning goes against that.

But of course you are... :P

I wrote some stuff down but I fell into the trap once more thinking that Jon Targaryen could be older but smaller (e.g. difficult pregnancy and early birth), and that's why they could name Jon younger than Robb, but all that says nothing if the time line puts Jon Snow's birthday at 6 weeks ahead of Robb, if Catelyn thinks hers is older.

[Ellfoy]

Giving Jon and Robb's description, it is safe to assume that Robb was a bigger baby. My mother is a nanny for 0 to 3 yo and I can tell you that a baby can appear older than an older baby (sometimes even with a three months difference !)

With your timeline analysis, I am quite convinced than Jon is a little older than Robb especially with the Dany part. But I think that Ned would have claimed that Jon is younger (he has told lies, not only a lie) to make him less dangerous in the line of succession. So, I don't think that Catelyn knows and therefore her opinion (the quotes) on the matter is irrelevant (she's completly paranoïd when it comes to Jon) and that would also mean that Jon nameday as presented in the books must not be the right one to keep the apparences.

[bemused]

Somewhere in the SSMs, George confirms that Jon is just slightly older.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Somewhere in the SSMs, George confirms that Jon is just slightly older.

Any chance you could find that SSM? :)

[Ghost's Shadow]

It would have been a nice one to have kept a link of. ;)

[Rhaegal Targaryen]

Somewhere in the SSMs, George confirms that Jon is just slightly older.

Link?

[HexMachina]

Any chance you could find that SSM? :)

Well I found more age of majority stuff for you, though that isn't related to the topic. Different SSM to the last one though. Link!

A boy is Westeros is considered to be a "man grown" at sixteen years. The same is true for girls. Sixteen is the age of legal majority, as twenty-one is for us.

THis one I have to share, because I can't believe someone asked it :lol: Link!

I'll admit that I am fond of her character and identify with her as a woman. Theories such as "she really has XXY chromosomes" are something I would like to ask about. Could you state that she is female?

She is female.

Also this, because it means Beth Cassel lives! :commie:

But my brother points out that everyone from Winterfell is dead - I tell him that's not certain. We don't know what happened with Old Nan, for instance.

Most of the women and children from Winterfell are still alive, though they are not in a good place by any means. <-let's just ignore this bit

Heh Link! :rolleyes:

[Will Sandor and Sansa meet?]

Why, the Hound is dead, and Sansa may be dead as well. There's only Alayne Stone.

This is more for my own benefit:

[Are Mace Tyrell and the Queen of Thorns aware of Loras's sexuality?]

Yes and yes.

Well, that was an experience and a half. But I could not for the life of me find that SSM...it is a dangerous place to lose yourself for an hour or three...

[RainGhost]

Giving Jon and Robb's description, it is safe to assume that Robb was a bigger baby. My mother is a nanny for 0 to 3 yo and I can tell you that a baby can appear older than an older baby (sometimes even with a three months difference !)

With your timeline analysis, I am quite convinced than Jon is a little older than Robb especially with the Dany part. But I think that Ned would have claimed that Jon is younger (he has told lies, not only a lie) to make him less dangerous in the line of succession. So, I don't think that Catelyn knows and therefore her opinion (the quotes) on the matter is irrelevant (she's completly paranoïd when it comes to Jon) and that would also mean that Jon nameday as presented in the books must not be the right one to keep the apparences.

I agree. When do Catelyn, Ned, Robb and Jon reunite in Winterfell? If the boys are several months old then it becomes very difficult to tell for sure which one's older, especially if there's only weeks in it. And I also agree that Ned could have lied to avoid succession issues. If Jon is older, he may or his children may feel that they have the better claim if they get legitimised, or Catelyn at least would have more fear of that.

[Luthien Targaryen]

I was under the impression that Robb was slightly older than Jon. Catelyn seems to believe that Jon was conceived after she was married to Ned and Ned behaves and reacts to questions on the assumption that Jon is younger than Robb. I mean, you can't really blame a guy or blame yourself for having slept with someone else before your hastily arranged marriage to a woman you've never met before in your life. Yet Ned tells Robert that he "dishonoured" Catelyn and prays for forgiveness.

RainGhost has a valid point, lying about Jon's age to protect Robb's claim is the kind of daft thing he'd do.

I still think it would have been easier to claim that Jon had been the product of a relationship Ned had been in before he married Catelyn, but I also think that is Jon really is the son of Lyanna Stark and Rhaegar Targaryen then Ned could have come up with a far better cover story than "I don't want to talk about it".

On the other hand, age and seniority don't seem to count for much in terms of succession rights in Westeros. It certainly doesn't stop Renly and Stannis from fighting over the Iron Throne. Ned has avoided this by bringing up Jon well while recognising him as illegitimate and ensuring that the boys get along well. And then there's all those Blackfyre rebellions... Catelyn would have doubtless learnt about those, being the dutiful daughter she was, and knew that illegitimate brothers could be a threat to trueborn heirs.

[corbon]

I am left wondering, now, is Jon really the youngest of the two? Or does Catelyn believe that Jon was fathered during her short engagement to Ned, giving her actual cause to fear the claims of her grandchildren over Winterfell? I can completely understand such fear when the bastard is older than the trueborn children, while, if the bastard isn’t the eldest, I’d say those fears have very little ground.

This right here is your problem. They don't, but they also do.

Its a complex subject and a base fear for Catelyn, regardless of the actual truth of the situation.

If the Heir and a bastard are of an age, more or less, and grow up together, they will always create comparisons. Thats why Jon always felt she gave him the evil eye if he looked like he was better than Robb at anything.

Those comparisons in themselves create an opportunity for unscrupulous people (who abound!) to use Jon, or his descendants, to take away Catelyn's children's inheritance. Its not very likely, but its a possibility greatly increased by the favour Ned shows Jon in allowing him to be raised as part of the family instead of distantly. Men wanting to control power have a candidate they can try to use for that. If Jon is close to Robb's age and compare's favourably to Robb in any way, he can be a tool. It doesn't really matter if he's slightly younger than Robb or not, though older would be better - but in the end this is about someone using whatever justification for power they can create, so older is not critical.

The simple fact is that by Ned raising Jon with his family, Jon becomes something of a 'super-bastard'. Still technically illegitimate and outside the inheritance entirely, but clearly a son of Ned, and clearly well regarded by Ned. If Robb ends up with political problems, or worse, Rbb dies and the younger boys have political problems, Jon becomes an option either for powerful men to use as a tool or in his own right. Not a 'legit' option, but a "justifiable" option, and we've all seen how often greedy players use justifications for their power-plays, rather than what is 'right' or legal.

The worst case of course is if the problems happen when there is no other strong potential heir - say Robb's heir is a child, or he has none, and Bran/Rickon are also underage or dead.

And guess what? Unlikely or not, thats very close to exactly what we have seen. Jon has been offered Winterfell, over (fake) Arya and (run away) Sansa, by Stannis. Admittedly thats at least in part becuase Bran and Rickon are also assumed dead. But if Bran and Rickon were alive but in Lannister control, would Stannis not still make the same offer? (Maybe not, this is Stannis after all, but you can bet your bottom dollar Tywin would have in the same situation).

I don't get that fear because Robb's and his children's claim is threatened more by Bran and Rickon and their children.

I think the point is that with Jon being of an age with Robb, significantly older than the younger boys, if a warrior/leader is needed then Jon might be an option fighting men could rally behind whereas the younger boys might not.

Yet if Jon was raised away from Winterfell then this risk would be lessened. He wouldn't be so clearly a 'Son-of-Ned' shown favour by 'The Ned' and wouldn't be so easily compared favourably against the Stark boys.

Of so Catelyn fears.

And she's at least half right, even if it looks groundless from the idyllic seeming peace of the start of the series.

[*Leah]

Uhm... very interesting! :)

I have always thought Jon was younger than Robb, but recently I have started wondering about it and now I'm not sure anymore...

The main question is: is really Ned Jon's father or not? This is the question, because if he's not maybe he didn't know Jon's nameday.

The line in which Ned says he dishonored himself and Catelyn was not a thought, but something he said to Robert... and he had to pretend Jon being his son, with Robert and everybody else (if R + L = J is real). So, I don't think that line is a sufficient proof because of the difference between narrator statements and characters thoughts, and even between what characters say and what characters think or really did in the past.

Furthermore, I agree with corbon concerning Catelyn fears about Jon.

Apart from this, it is not an easy problem to solve... maybe Jon is older than Robb, but is a matter of few weeks, in my opinion. Now I'm gonna read previous posts more carefully trying to figure it out. :)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

@Corbon, you are right, of course, that Jon's age being so close to Robb would make it easier for Catelyn to fear that others would seek to use him. And interesting too, the quote on the looks she gave Jon whenever he was better at stuff than Robb. It is just not an easy topic, and we can no longer get a look inside Catelyn's thoughts, to see any further thoughts on this issue..

@*Leah. No, this indeed isn't a problem easily solved. Unfortunately. To the question of "who is Jon's father?", I'd say, come visit the R+L=J threads sometime :) That Ned might not even have known Jon's true birthday, that is an interesting observation. In that case (with R+L=J in mind), he might have chosen the day he arrived at ToJ as Jon's nameday. However, you can wonder, if that was also the day that Lyanna died, would Ned chose that day? I doubt it..

[Rhaegal Targaryen]

Obviously this thread assumes that Ned is indeed Jon's father.

I think it's entirely possible that Jon is the elder of the two. We don't know that much about when exactly he was born in relation to Robb, other than the fact that the two are pretty close in age.

Cat's reaction to bastards was perfectly typical for a woman of her station.

It doesn't.Jon can still be the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar and be older than Robb.

[*Leah]

@*Leah. No, this indeed isn't a problem easily solved. Unfortunately. To the question of "who is Jon's father?", I'd say, come visit the R+L=J threads sometime :) That Ned might not even have known Jon's true birthday, that is an interesting observation. In that case (with R+L=J in mind), he might have chosen the day he arrived at ToJ as Jon's nameday.

Yeah, I'm reading R + L = J thread and it's very interesting too!

I also thought about Ned choosing the day he arrived at Tower of Joy as Jon's nameday. It is possible. :)

However, you can wonder, if that was also the day that Lyanna died, would Ned chose that day? I doubt it..

I was wondering, are we sure the day Lyanna died was the same day she gave birth to Jon? To be honest, I don't remember... does Martin say it somewhere?

[Rhaegal Targaryen]

Yeah, I'm reading R + L = J thread and it's very interesting too!

I also thought about Ned choosing the day he arrived at Tower of Joy as Jon's nameday. It is possible. :)

I was wondering, are we sure the day Lyanna died was the same day she gave birth to Jon? To be honest, I don't remember... does Martin say it somewhere?

Nope it's almost sure that she died from childbirth fever.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yeah, I'm reading R + L = J thread and it's very interesting too!

I also thought about Ned choosing the day he arrived at Tower of Joy as Jon's nameday. It is possible. :)

I was wondering, are we sure the day Lyanna died was the same day she gave birth to Jon? To be honest, I don't remember... does Martin say it somewhere?

We're not 100% certain that she died the day of his arrival. Perhaps she lived another day, who knows? Lyanna died of a fever, and with childbirth in mind, there are specific fevers that can occur due to childbirth. Such a fever usually killed 3 to 10 days after birth.

Then again, perhaps GRRM uses his own childbirth fevers, which kill days after birth, who knows? We know of a Lady Jeyne Marbrant, who died within a month after giving birth to her yougnest child. I feel that, if Jeyne died within 10 days, it would have stated "within a fortnight", and not within a moon's turn. Of course.. Within a moon's turn can be taken in 30 different ways :)