[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?

[WeaselPie]

Elia was mentioned to have been born with 8 months

Can you kindly elaborate on this? I don't understand what you mean.

Elia gave birth prematurely or she was a premature baby?

Also where is the citation for this in the books?

Thanks

[TheNinjaDC]

I believe within Westeros, it is believed Robb is older thereby Jon is Ned's one dishonor.

However, knowing R+L=J, it is likely Jon was conceived slightly earlier. Ned likely just says Jon is younger to add an extra degree of relief from Cat's fears/anger, and confuse Westerosi about Jon's birth.

[Dragon's Daughter]

Can you kindly elaborate on this? I don't understand what you mean.

Elia gave birth prematurely or she was a premature baby?

Also where is the citation for this in the books?

Thanks

The Captain of the Guards in AFFC. It says Doran's mother was brought to bed "a month too soon" with Elia, after having two of her first three babies die in the cradle.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

the doesn't mater where, point is Jon Snow was born already, Cat was still pregnant with Robb.

The point is that the illustration is inaccurate. Catelyn had already given birth to Robb at Riverrun by the time Ned got back to Winterfell with Jon. So using an inaccurate illustration as proof is useless.

[Consigliere]

the doesn't mater where, point is Jon Snow was born already, Cat was still pregnant with Robb.

You're missing my point. Robb was born at Riverrun and when Cat and Robb arrive at Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse are already there. This is in the books. That illustration you are talking about is wrong.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Can you kindly elaborate on this? I don't understand what you mean.

Elia gave birth prematurely or she was a premature baby?

Also where is the citation for this in the books?

Thanks

I meant that Elia was born 1 month premature (so after an 8 month pregnancy). It's in A Feast for Crows, The Captain of Guards

“I was the oldest,” the prince said, “and yet I am the last. After Mors and Olyvar died in their cradles, I gave up hope of brothers. I was nine when Elia came, a squire in service at Salt Shore. When the raven arrived with word that my mother had been brought to bed a month too soon, I was old enough to understand that meant the child would not live. Even when Lord Gargalen told me that I had a sister, I assured him that she must shortly die. Yet she lived, by the Mother’s mercy. And a year later Oberyn arrived, squalling and kicking. I was a man grown when they were playing in these pools. Yet here I sit, and they are gone.”

There was a animated potrayal of Ned stark coming back to Winterfell with baby Jon snow in hand while Cat was looking up from a window and she was still pregnant, Jon is older

I don't know what animated portrayal you are talking about, but what you describe directly contradicts the text in the books. Robb was born at Riverrun, and when Catelyn arrived at Winterfell, Jon and his wetnurse were already there.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

R_T.. :cheers: .. I'm in awe of your last post..

And wait a minute , guys, to say " Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. " doesn't necessarily mean that it had to happen after Ned and Cat were married. Don't forget that they only married because Brandon and Rickard had been killed,and he left RR immediately afterward ... But he had to be already on his way to war, and have men with him. The decision to take up arms was not made after the marriage.

GRRM is a tricksy bird and on campaign can easily refer to however many weeks it took to make the decision, gather the men and get on the move.

ETA: (So Cat thinking that the deed occurred on campaign is not at odds with her knowing Jon is older.)

That's an interesting one! Good find. :)

In addition, technically, that one child was conceived earlier, doesn't mean that said child was also born earlier.. Especially if the children were born only weeks apart.

[Mychel_Redfort]

R_T.. :cheers: .. I'm in awe of your last post..

And wait a minute , guys, to say " Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. " doesn't necessarily mean that it had to happen after Ned and Cat were married. Don't forget that they only married because Brandon and Rickard had been killed,and he left RR immediately afterward ... But he had to be already on his way to war, and have men with him. The decision to take up arms was not made after the marriage.

GRRM is a tricksy bird and on campaign can easily refer to however many weeks it took to make the decision, gather the men and get on the move.

ETA: (So Cat thinking that the deed occurred on campaign is not at odds with her knowing Jon is older.)

But look at this scene :

"You were never the boy you were," Robert grumbled. "More's the pity. And yet there was that one time... what was her name, that common girl of yours? Becca? No, she was one of mine, gods love her, black hair and these sweet big eyes, you could drown in them. Yours was... Aleena? No. You told me once. Was it Merryl? You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother?"

"Her name was Wylla," Ned replied with cool courtesy, "and I would sooner not speak of her."

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like..."

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child."

"You are too hard on yourself, Ned. You always were."

It really looks like Ned's affair with Wylla is supposed to have happened after his wedding.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

But look at this scene :

It really looks like Ned's affair with Wylla is supposed to have happened after his wedding.

That is indeed true.. The question is, what was Robert told, and what was Catelyn told? It's not like they would see each other often, and even less likely that they would speak to one another about Jon. But then again, it would be risky to tell two different tales of a story. So it would seem more plausible that Ned told both the same version of the tale, however little he told.

But I'll say it again: that one child is conceived earlier, doesn't mean that said child is also born earlier. So unless there is supposed to be quite some time in between the two conceptions (which we know there probably wasn't, because the birth occured rather close together), it doesn't really give us a clue..

The puzzling thing is Catelyn's consideration for the mother, or anyone's consideration for the mother, actually. The Borrel's think the fisherman's daughter, which would make Jon quite a lot older than Robb... Months. Catelyn thinks at one point it might have been Ashara... It doesn't help that we don't know where she was during the war. Robert seems to think it was some common girl..

The scenario of "the affair" taking place after the wedding would have Ned cheat on Catelyn within weeks of his wedding, wouldn't it? That should rule out the fisherman's daughter in everyone's mind in Westeros.

A few new pieces of information would help us quite a lot:

- Where was Ashara, and how far was she from Ned that Catelyn would have considered her to have been Jon's potential mother?

- When did Ned and Robert part ways, and for how long, and where? Robert never "saw the girl", indicating that Robert thinks the conception occured when he wasn't around himself..

[Consigliere]

So I guess there are two conclusions to be drawn:

1. There is simply not enough information to determine who is actually older.

2. In story, Robb is believed to be older therefore his name day must occur before Jon's. Whether or not Jon's name day is his 'real' name day is impossible to determine with the current information.

[Mychel_Redfort]

The scenario of "the affair" taking place after the wedding would have Ned cheat on Catelyn within weeks of his wedding, wouldn't it? That should rule out the fisherman's daughter in everyone's mind in Westeros.

But surely Ned didn't tell publicly he had dishonored Catelyn, so the people of Westeros can't know if his affair happened before or after his wedding

[Voice]

For a while now, it seems that the general idea on the forum is that Robb Stark must be older than Jon Snow.

While it is known that Robb was both conceived and born in 283AC, with Jon, only the year of his birth (283AC) can be stated with certainty. From text in A Game of Thrones, it was clear that Jon’s nameday doesn’t occur all too far away from Robb’s. But with the POVs having split before anyone’s nameday can occur, it is difficult to see whose nameday occurs first, and whose occurs second.

When I asked why Robb must be the eldest, I received roughly the same explanation every time, and personally, I found the explanation not all that statisfying. So I decided to look into the matter again, and I figured I'd place it here, so we can all discuss it. I’ve divided all I came up with in two parts, and I’ll end with a conclusion.

Part 1: Quotes from ‘‘A Game of Thrones”

It is the general idea on the forum, for as far as I can tell, that Robb has to be the eldest of the two brothers. That idea seems to come from this quote from Catelyn:

While at first look, it might seem that the above mentioned quote from Catelyn states that Jon was fathered by Ned after his marriage to Catelyn, I found this quote (here below) that made me rethink the first quote, and study it closer:

Catelyn here shows worries she had had about Jon fathering sons who would fight with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell in the future. This sounds a bit strange to me, if Jon was indeed younger than Robb.

Though inheritance at times can be a bit unclear, as a bastard, Jon would have absolutely no claim to Winterfell. No matter if he got married and had children, he would not have been in the line of succession as a bastard. Surely, there have been occasions where bastards have “helped” fate a bit for their trueborn siblings, to ensure themselves a place in succession. And it isn’t unthinkable that one who is born a bastard, ends up as the heir to a seat, either. We see the bastard Addam of Hull being named the heir to the Driftmark, above other, trueborn, Velaryon family members. Ramsay Snow is named heir to the Dreadfort, despite Roose Bolton marrying and obviously getting his wife pregnant.

The important thing with these two examples, is that both subjects from the examples were legitimized, before being named as heir to their fathers seat.

So for Catelyn's fears to even have a chance of coming true, Jon would need to be legitimized. As a bastard who isn't legitimized, he would not have any claim to Winterfell, and while he can marry and father trueborn sons of his own, those children would not be in the line of succession, because Jon isn't.

This brings into question, why would Catelyn fear that Jon’s sons (not Jon himself, but his sons) would stand a chance to take Winterfell from Catelyn’s grandchildren? Robb would inherit Winterfell, and his sons and daughters after him. Should Robb and his children die, Winterfell would have gone to Bran and his sons and then daughters, and next to Rickon and his children. And of course, after Bran, the best claim would have been Sansa’s, with her children, and as last Arya, with her children. Would Catelyn truly have been thinking that Jon’s children would kill all of her sons, daughters, grandsons and granddaughters, so they could lay claim to Winterfell? That seems a bit much. Catelyn doesn't seem to be thinking all too badly about other people's bastards, after all. And she knows Jon's personality. So why assume, without actual reason, that Jon's trueborn sons, who won't even be in line to inherit, will do something so very drastic, if Jon is the younger?

Which brings me back to the first quote:

The first part, “It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign”, shows that Catelyn learned about Jon Snow in the first year of her marriage. This quote does not show that Jon Snow was conceived during the first year of Catelyn’s marriage, however.

The second part of that sentence, “on some girl chance met on campaign” would make you think about the parts of the war from the Battle of the Bells until the Sack and beyond. But the war had been going on earlier than the Battle of the Bells.

Ned and Cat were betrothed early on in the war (as LF send Catelyn a letter after Brandon had died, but she didn’t read it, because by then she knew she was going to marry Ned in Brandons stead). In fact, it seems most logical that Ned had given his consent for such a match to Jon Arryn, and left for the north to reach Winterfell and call his banners, relying on Jon Arryn to arrange the match, details and all. With the actual wedding occurring a couple of months into the war, there are a few months of war where Ned was betrothed, but not yet married.

During these months, battles were already happening. Ned was, after reaching Winterfell and marching south with his banners, “on campaign”. The journey from Winterfell to the Riverlands would occur during Neds betrothal, and would count as being “on campaign” as well. In addition, there would potentially have been time for Ned to have slept with a girl (had he been the type of person to do so), despite having been promised to Catelyn already.

(In fact, this seems to be what the fisherman’s daughter rumours in Westeros have been based upon. That Jon was conceived prior to Ned’s wedding.)

However, the sentence “He had a man’s needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father’s castle at Riverrun” would suggest that Catelyn seems to think that Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.

Currently, I don't know how and if this quote can be taken in another way.

I am left wondering, now, is Jon really the youngest of the two? Or does Catelyn believe that Jon was fathered during her short engagement to Ned, giving her actual cause to fear the claims of her grandchildren over Winterfell? I can completely understand such fear when the bastard is older than the trueborn children, while, if the bastard isn’t the eldest, I’d say those fears have very little ground.

In addition, it is generally stated that Jon and Robb will have been born only a few weeks apart. While Catelyn states that Robb was conceived during her wedding night, she also stated that Ned remained with her for two weeks, before moving on. "He had a man's needs, after all." but with such two conceptions needing to occur close to one another, Ned would have needed to sleep with Jon's mother only weeks after Robb's conception. And two of those weeks, he still spend at Riverrun. Yet Catelyn doesn't seem to think that Ned slept with any girl from the Riverlands, the area where Ned would be in the first few weeks after leaving Riverrun.

Which all makes me suspect that perhaps Jon might indeed be the eldest of the two children.

Part 2: The Timeline

After studying those quotes, and thinking about them, I went and took a look at the timeline.

The first event that we know took place in 283AC, is the Battle of the Bells. So technically, this battle could have taken place on the very first day of the year. Catelyn and Ned got married after the battle, and the fact that Lysa’s marriage to Jon Arryn, which was arranged after the Battle of the Bells, was arranged “hastily”, suggests that it might have been only a few days that passed in between. This means that technically, Ned’s wedding to Catelyn could have taken place in the first or second week of the year. That a war was going on, might also indeed suggest that not much time passed.. There were other things to worry about.

Robb was conceived on the wedding night, and thus, would have been born 9 months later. With both his conception and birth occurring in 283AC, Robb’s birth took place somewhere in the 10th, 11th or 12th months of the year. The earliest, it seems, that Robb’s birth could have occurred, would be in the first half of the 10th month.

Which is fine, but here the troubles begin. If Jon is older than Robb, than Jon’s birth must have occurred in the 10th, 11th or 12th month as well. Say that Ned and Catelyn indeed got married in the first week of the year, a few days after the Battle at the Stony Sept, and that Robb was born a full pregnancy (38 weeks = 9 months and ±1 week) later, Robb’s birth would have occurred in the second week of the 10th month.

In the scenario where Jon is younger than Robb, Jon’s birth should have occurred in the 3rd or 4rd week of the 10th month, or even in the 11th or 12th month.

We have this SSM where GRRM says that Jon was born 8 to 9 months before Dany did. That means that, when we look at their namedays in a year, Dany’s nameday will occur, and 3 to 4 months later, Jon’s nameday will occur.

In the scenario where Jon is younger than Robb, and his nameday thus occurred in the second half of the 10th month, or in the 11th or 12th month, Dany’s would be occurring 3 to 4 months earlier. When looking at the earliest placement of Jon’s nameday in the year possible according to this scenario, (3rd week of 10th month), Dany’s nameday would occur 3 to 4 months earlier, thus in the second half of the 6th or 7th month.

And this is a problem.

When Daenerys arrives in Qarth, she tells Jorah:

Daenerys’ last moment of receiving news from Westeros, would have been the last time they were close to a city, or a caravan. This was Vaes Dothrak, which they left when Daenerys was still pregnant. In addition, Dany´s arrival in Qarth is the first mentioning of her being 15, whereas in the Red Waste, it had been mentioned that she was still 14. So either in the Red Waste, or on the journey to Qarth, Dany's nameday occurred.

What we know now, is that in the half year since Vaes Dothrak, Dany's nameday occurred. She doesn't know yet that Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark are dead, when she sends Jorah out. That does not mean that the two men weren´t dead yet when Dany left Vaes Dothrak. It means that the news hadn't reached Vaes Dothrak yet.

A while later in the same chapter, we get this quote:

This short passage tells us a few things. First, that “not half a year past”, Robert had died, and Ned had been arrested. More importantly, Ned was arrested, but not yet executed.

Though Quhuru only gives a timeframe for his visit to Oldtown (not half a year past), he does give us his route of travel. The most important part: from Oldtown, Quhuru went to Dorne. When at Dorne, news of Neds death still hadn’t arrived yet, showing that either he had not yet been executed, or had just been executed, and the raven hadn’t reached Dorne yet. If the second option is in play, then Quhuru would have left Dorne within days of Ned death.

Also very important, Quhuru says that “the talk is, [Robert’s brothers] mean to claim the throne”. If this is the last news that Quhuru has heard since leaving Westeros, then by the time he left Dorne, Renly (who was the first to claim the crown) had not yet crowned himself.

It will take a while to sail from Oldtown to Dorne. During this time, as can be judged from this quote, Ned still hadn’t died (or has just died, but the news hasn’t reached Dorne, the last port in Westeros Quhuru visited, yet).

Where does this place Dany’s arrival in Qarth in the timeframe?

We know that Ned died in the first few weeks of 299AC, and that Renly claimed the throne some time before that, somewhere around the changing of the year (making is basically impossible to state with 100% certainty whether this was in 298AC or 299AC; all that can be said is that it occurred in the few weeks surrounding Westeros’ New Years eve)

So Ned has been dead for less than half a year. More importantly, Dany thus arrives in Qarth less than half a year in 299AC, but she did already turn 15.

Which is a problem if she would need to turn 15 in the 3rd week of the 6th month, or later even.

Conclusion

Though there will naturally be wiggle room for GRRM to make it work with Jon being younger than Robb, should that truly be the case, (perhaps by stating that Cat’s pregnancy did not last the full 9 months, but ended a week or two ealier), while keeping Jons nameday occurring 3 or 4 months after Dany’s in the year, it seems that it has to be a very tight schedule, with a lot of necessities. For example, The Battle of the Bells will need to have occurred in the first week of the year, and the wedding of Ned and Catelyn will need to have occurred within a few days thereafter.

Catelyn's fears about Jon's children fighting for Winterfell against her own grandchildren, the timeframe with Dany's birth, Catelyn seemingly not considering Riverland-mothers for Jon... It all has made me think that Jon might in fact be the elder of the two boys.

Addition:

Interestingly enough, when looking up the link for the SSM I linked above, I came across this on the Citadel-site of Westeros.org (emphazis mine):

If Jon is the eldest of the two, what does it mean?

Well, it would mean the following:

With the knowledge that Dany was born 9 months after fleeing KL, an event that occured about a week before the Sack of King's Landing, combined with the knowledge that Jon was born 8 to 9 months before Dany, we can say that Jon was born either in the week before the Sack, or in the three weeks following.

We also know that the Battle of the Bells occurs in 283AC (the Sack does so as well).

If Jon is older than Robb, this means that the Sack of KL took place earlier in the year than previously thought. It would also mean that the time between the Battle of the Bells and the end of the war wasn't more than 9 months, as previously suspected, but more close to 7 or 8 months.

So, can we state that Jon is older than Robb? Or is Robb definitly older than Jon? Or do we still lack the right information to be able to say whose older?

Funny, I always thought Jon was older and didn't know this was a debate. I think my own impression is from the way Jon told Benjen he was nearly a man grown, saw Robb grinning like an idiot, gave Arya a sword he had forged, and joined the Night's Watch -- all before Robb ever has real steel in his hand.

I'm very glad I read this post, as the final SSM seems to clear this up pretty well. Very well written OP! :cheers:

[Lady Snow]

After calling his banners, Ned marched to join Robert's warring in the south, arriving in time to turn the tide at the Battle of the Bells. Afterward, he went to Riverrun to marry Catelyn Tully, who had been betrothed to his brother Brandon before his death. Jon Arryn married Catelyn's sister Lysa in the same ceremony. The double wedding bound House Tully to the rebels' cause.

[corbon]

That is indeed true.. The question is, what was Robert told, and what was Catelyn told? It's not like they would see each other often, and even less likely that they would speak to one another about Jon. But then again, it would be risky to tell two different tales of a story. So it would seem more plausible that Ned told both the same version of the tale, however little he told.

Its not just what they tell, and think, its also what Ned says.

Ned admits it to have been a dishonour to Catelyn, which is a clear indication that Jon's supposed conception by Ned happened after Robb's conception. Earlier, before their entirely political marriage (they had never met before the wedding) would not have been a dishonour to her.

But I'll say it again: that one child is conceived earlier, doesn't mean that said child is also born earlier. So unless there is supposed to be quite some time in between the two conceptions (which we know there probably wasn't, because the birth occured rather close together), it doesn't really give us a clue..

Thats not a good enough argument to me. For Ned, and Catelyn (thinking she would have forgiven Ned, when there would be nothing to forgive if Jon was conceived before the wedding), to both have the common expectation that Robb is older, his name day must be before Jon's. Yes, its technically possible that the conception order and birth order's were reversed, but thats not going to fit with people's (including Ned and Catelyn) understanding.

So I guess there are two conclusions to be drawn:

1. There is simply not enough information to determine who is actually older.

2. In story, Robb is believed to be older therefore his name day must occur before Jon's. Whether or not Jon's name day is his 'real' name day is impossible to determine with the current information.

This. Especially 2.

[ThatUsernameIsAlreadyTaken]

I've always thought of Jon as being older. When he and Robb were practicing in the yard, I think one of the things he would yell was "I'm the heir to Winterfell!" Before Catelyn told him and Robb that he wasn't because he was a bastard. If Jon thought that he was it may be because he was older.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

[The Bear]

I had honestly always thought Jon was the elder of the two.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

After calling his banners, Ned marched to join Robert's warring in the south, arriving in time to turn the tide at the Battle of the Bells. Afterward, he went to Riverrun to marry Catelyn Tully, who had been betrothed to his brother Brandon before his death. Jon Arryn married Catelyn's sister Lysa in the same ceremony. The double wedding bound House Tully to the rebels' cause.

What are you trying to say?

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/What_happened_when_during_Roberts_Rebellion

And...?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Its not just what they tell, and think, its also what Ned says.

Ned admits it to have been a dishonour to Catelyn, which is a clear indication that Jon's supposed conception by Ned happened after Robb's conception. Earlier, before their entirely political marriage (they had never met before the wedding) would not have been a dishonour to her.

Yeah, but he says so to Robert, and no one else. And to Robert, he has also given a name (Wylla) which he apparently did to no one else, and which isn't likely to be true.

Thats not a good enough argument to me. For Ned, and Catelyn (thinking she would have forgiven Ned, when there would be nothing to forgive if Jon was conceived before the wedding), to both have the common expectation that Robb is older, his name day must be before Jon's. Yes, its technically possible that the conception order and birth order's were reversed, but thats not going to fit with people's (including Ned and Catelyn) understanding.

We see how Lysa responds to the thought of having her husband's bastard, born years before their marriage, around. She doesn't respond with enthusiasm ("what am I to do with her [at the Eyrie]?"). So keeping Jon around was the problem, not the moment of his conception or birth.

Catelyn says so herself. She would have forgiven Ned for a dozen bastards, as long as they were kept out of sight. But Ned didn't keep Jon of sight, and raised him practically as if he was trueborn.

So I don't think that this can be a clue to Jons nameday.

[Oafkeeper]

Who is older: Robb or Jon?

Can I take a third option? I've had a lot of sucess with Strong Belwas as my answer.

But yes, the gap between them is small enough that if Jon is older it wasn't remarked upon even by Cat.