[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?

[bemused]

Any chance you could find that SSM? :)

It would have been a nice one to have kept a link of. ;)

Hindsight is everything ;)

So, no, I didn't keep the link , ... But I can tell you that it was linked on these forums ( probably right here in General ASoIaF )..I don't remember the thread , it was some time ago... But I do seem to remember that the SSM was on camera during some Q&A. It wasn't an in depth answer at all. It was direct question (who was older) and the reply was ..Jon... and then he clarified that it was only slightly... Whether slightly means days , weeks or a month or so, who knows ?

Sorry guys, I'm deeply involved in other things, but I just wanted to say it's there if you're into the search.

[RumHam]

Hindsight is everything ;)

So, no, I didn't keep the link , ... But I can tell you that it was linked on these forums ( probably right here in General ASoIaF )..I don't remember the thread , it was some time ago... But I do seem to remember that the SSM was on camera during some Q&A. It wasn't an in depth answer at all. It was direct question (who was older) and the reply was ..Jon... and then he clarified that it was only slightly... Whether slightly means days , weeks or a month or so, who knows ?

Sorry guys, I'm deeply involved in other things, but I just wanted to say it's there if you're into the search.

So it was a video, not text? That might explain why it's hard to find.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Hindsight is everything ;)

So, no, I didn't keep the link , ... But I can tell you that it was linked on these forums ( probably right here in General ASoIaF )..I don't remember the thread , it was some time ago... But I do seem to remember that the SSM was on camera during some Q&A. It wasn't an in depth answer at all. It was direct question (who was older) and the reply was ..Jon... and then he clarified that it was only slightly... Whether slightly means days , weeks or a month or so, who knows ?

Sorry guys, I'm deeply involved in other things, but I just wanted to say it's there if you're into the search.

Any idea how old the video was?

[bemused]

You're making me second guess myself... I'm pretty sure it was video.. I can see him answering it in my mind's eye. ( But then I've seen so many :D ).. Anyway, my bet is video.. I saw the link in a thread about a year ago, but the video might have been earlier.. It must have been since the release of ADWD, though , because the poster seemed to be treating it as new information , not old archived info.

Might it be easier to search for tagged threads ? ( If that's not a stupid question...) It was probably a ToJ, KoLT thread...

[MtnLion]

Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell.

I believe that you may have missed a detail in this quote. If Robb dies without issue, then Bran and his children would have rights. Jon's children could lay claim, since Jon would be older than Bran or Rickon. This is likely the angle that Catelyn is looking at, not a dispute with Catelyn's grandchildren through Robb, but of a younger son.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yet gladly would she have kissed the maester just then. His was the perfect solution. Benjen Stark was a Sworn Brother. Jon would be a son to him, the child he would never have. And in time the boy would take the oath as well. He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell.

I believe that you may have missed a detail in this quote. If Robb dies without issue, then Bran and his children would have rights. Jon's children could lay claim, since Jon would be older than Bran or Rickon. This is likely the angle that Catelyn is looking at, not a dispute with Catelyn's grandchildren through Robb, but of a younger son.

But why would Catelyn be considering here that Robb dies without issue? There is no reason to assume that (or suspect it), at that specific point in the story..

[MtnLion]

But why would Catelyn be considering here that Robb dies without issue? There is no reason to assume that (or suspect it), at that specific point in the story..

There is no reason to assume that she is talking about Robb's children, either. She says grandchildren, and Bran's and Rickon's qualify, as do Sansa's and Arya's. It is more likely that she is thinking of the girls than any other, because Jon's children would have a pretty strong claim if all of Catelyn's male children died without issue.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

There is no reason to assume that she is talking about Robb's children, either. She says grandchildren, and Bran's and Rickon's qualify, as do Sansa's and Arya's. It is more likely that she is thinking of the girls than any other, because Jon's children would have a pretty strong claim if all of Catelyn's male children died without issue.

But wouldn't that be assuming that she was considering a scenario where she already sees all of Robb's, Bran's and Rickon's children dead, then?

At that moment, there would be no reason for Catelyn to be even thinking about the possibility of Robb dying, be it with or without heirs of his own. As a bastard, Jon would have a worse claim than Robb or Robb's children, if Jon was younger than Robb.

If Jon was older than all of Catelyn's children (which could add even more to Catelyn's jealousy, I might add), her fears about Jon's children trying to claim Winterfell from her grandchildren would then at least have a little ground.

Because Catelyn uses the term "grandchildren" here, without specifying, without any pre-existing fears about Robb's life, it would be weird for her to think that Robb might die without issue, wouldn't it?

[Consigliere]

But wouldn't that be assuming that she was considering a scenario where she already sees all of Robb's, Bran's and Rickon's children dead, then?

At that moment, there would be no reason for Catelyn to be even thinking about the possibility of Robb dying, be it with or without heirs of his own. As a bastard, Jon would have a worse claim than Robb or Robb's children, if Jon was younger than Robb.

If Jon was older than all of Catelyn's children (which could add even more to Catelyn's jealousy, I might add), her fears about Jon's children trying to claim Winterfell from her grandchildren would then at least have a little ground.

Because Catelyn uses the term "grandchildren" here, without specifying, without any pre-existing fears about Robb's life, it would be weird for her to think that Robb might die without issue, wouldn't it?

I don't think that any of this points to Jon being older. Catelyn is just expressing her fears that Jon's sons or their sons might one day contest for Winterfell. This is not without validity and she cites the Blackfyre Rebellions later on as an example.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I don't think that any of this points to Jon being older. Catelyn is just expressing her fears that Jon's sons or their sons might one day contest for Winterfell. This is not without validity and she cites the Blackfyre Rebellions later on as an example.

I considered the Blackfyre Rebellion as well, indeed. But there, it was the father (Aegon IV) fueling rumours about how his heir was not his son, giving supporters of the legitimized bastard grounds..

Ned wasn't fueling any rumours, nor would Catelyn have any reason to think he ever would, and neither was Jon legitimized (or has there ever been talk about it).

Being older, that would give Cat reasons to worry.. then Jon would only need to be legitimized, to stand any ground on inheritance..

Has anyone, btw, searched for the video that @Bemused was talking about? If so, which videos have you already covered?

[sj4iy]

I see no real reason for Ned to lie about Jon's date of birth. If people didn't already connect "Ned comes home with baby" and "Ned comes home with dead sister's bones" after said sister was shacked up with Rhaegar for months, then I don't think there's any danger of them connecting a date with anything important.

[Consigliere]

I considered the Blackfyre Rebellion as well, indeed. But there, it was the father (Aegon IV) fueling rumours about how his heir was not his son, giving supporters of the legitimized bastard grounds..

Ned wasn't fueling any rumours, nor would Catelyn have any reason to think he ever would, and neither was Jon legitimized (or has there ever been talk about it).

Being older, that would give Cat reasons to worry.. then Jon would only need to be legitimized, to stand any ground on inheritance..

None of this is really relevant to Catelyn's fears. Whether Jon is older than Robb or not doesn't change the fact that in Cat's mind Jon's sons or grandsons could contest for Winterfell down the line. I don't believe that Cat's thoughts on this is actually evidence that Jon is older. The quote below shows that Cat believes Jon was conceived after Robb and Ned telling Robert that he dishonoured Catelyn corroborates that. So either Ned lied or Ned does not know Jon's exact date of birth.

AGoT, Catelyn II:

“Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man’s needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father’s castle at Riverrun.”

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ok, so I found something. It isn't anything exact, but still:

In A Game of Thrones, we see that Bran is still 7 years old when he is pushed from the window and slips into a coma. From Brans' POV, this is followed by a coma-POV, where no age is mentioned, and where he wakes up at the end, and the first POV-chapter where Bran is fully awake. Though it is unknown how long Bran has been awake at that point, he mentions that his 8th nameday has passed.

Then we have Jon. Jon mentions his nameday was a fortnight past, the day he receives news that Bran has woken up. Because Winterfell and Castle Black are rather close, that letter won't have taken long to arrive.. A few days at most.

How long was Bran in a coma? Well, at least for the following amount of time:

• ± 24 days of Jon travelling to the Wall (18 days mentioned, later in Game it is mentioned that you can travel back within a month, so 24 days on average?)
  
• 4 days (until Benjen leaves on his ranging)
  
• 9+9 days (Benjen was going to follow the route of Waymar, this is how long they travelled and were still to travel when the Others attacked the three men, as per Prologue)
  
• Additional days (Benjen said he would be back by Jon's nameday, but even Benjen would have known that it was highly unlikely that they would discover the two still missing men immediately, and would most likely have calculated some time in for that)
  
• A fortnight ("but his nameday has passed a fortnight ago" and Benjen still hadn't returned)
  

All in all, I'd say an estimation of 2 months, perhaps 2,5 would be a good one, for the duration of Brans coma. After Bran wakes up, Robb sends the letters, and when we finally see Bran in his first, fully awake chapter, he mentions how he had expected replies.. So at least enough time has passed for a raven to fly from Winterfell to KL and back, you'd think.

In between that time, Bran turned 8. The exact when, is not known.

Say that from Brans fall (Bran 2) to Bran meeting Tyrion again (Bran 4), 2,5 months have passed.

Counting from the moment of Bran's fall, Jon's nameday would have occured 1,5 to 1,75 months after Bran's fall.

Robb is mentioned to be 15 in Bran V, However, we cannot say how long he has been 15 by then. He might have turned 15 quite some time ago, with this only being the first mention.

So we go to Clash:

In A Clash of Kings, Bran IV, Bran mentions how his 9th nameday has already been (he was mentioned to still be 8, soon to be 9, in Bran II, and there was no mention of his age in Bran III). So as of Bran IV in Clash, Bran is definitly 9 years old.

In that same chapter, we learn that Rodrik has gone to Hornwood to sort things out.

In Bran V, we learn about the Battle at Oxcross. Catelyn is told about this battle in Catelyn V. By then, the battle happened some time ago already, but due to travelling, Catelyn hadn't heard it until she came within a 2-day distance of Riverrun. In addition, Oxcross is mentioned in KL in Sansa III, to have occured "6 days past". The letter Bran receives in Bran V was send a few days after the battle.

In Bran VI, Theon takes the castle. The news of the fall of Winterfell reaches KL in Tyrion XI.

Then comes Theon IV, where Theon decides to fake the deaths of Bran and Rickon, news of which reaches KL in Tyrion XII. In Catelyn VII, Catelyn has learned of the "fates" of Bran and Rickon. In that same chapter, she mentions how Robb had turned 16 "a few days past".

Be it clear, from this, that quite a lot of time passes between Bran's nameday, and Robb's nameday. The question remains now.. Can we determine how much time has certainly passed? We cannot say when exactly Bran turned 9. He could have been 9 by Bran 3 already. He most certainly is 8 in Bran 2, and 9 in Bran 4. The amount of time in between is difficult to state.

But how much time passes between Bran VI and Catelyn VII? Perhaps that can be, however roughly, determined.

Between Tyrion VIII and Davos II, some significant amount of time should have passed, as Myrcella sailed from KL to Braavos, and from Braavos to Dorne. Between Davos II and Tyrion IX a little time passes, as news of events occurring in Davos II reaches KL in Tyrion IX.

Then of course, also a few weeks pass at least where Theon takes Winterfell (and that news reaches KL), and where Theon fakes the deaths (and the news of that reaches KL). A raven should cover a distance from Winterfell to KL in 9 days or so? Roughly stated? The time that passes between Bran VI and Theon VI would roughly be enough (or not nearly) for one person to travel from Winterfell to Deepwood Motte. According to Dance, that should be 15 days (though granted, that is with an army, a person on his own would be faster). The deaths of Bran and Rickon are faked after, and the raven should thus take about 9 days. Showing that between Bran VI and Tyrion XI, at least 24 days passed.

So all in all, how much time would have passed? It comes very close to 2,5 months, from the sound of it, I’d say.

Which would put Robb's nameday a few weeks, perhaps as much as a full month, after Jon's. I know this isn't anything exact, but I think that it can be stated that this does suggest that the chances are very high that Jon is older, and not Robb, looking at namedays and events occuring in between.

[corbon]

Which would put Robb's nameday a few weeks, perhaps as much as a full month, after Jon's. I know this isn't anything exact, but I think that it can be stated that this does suggest that the chances are very high that Jon is older, and not Robb, looking at namedays and events occuring in between.

Surely the whole family knows when the respective name days, at least the ones that are oficially celebrated, are.

So if Catelyn thinks Ned conceived Jon after they conceived Robb together, and she does, Robb's nameday must before Jon's. At least before the one that Jon celebrates, even if Jon is actually a few weeks older, maybe.

Working out the best guesses (and guesses are what they are) through complex calculations back and forth over a timeline GRRM doesn't take such particular care over is surely pointless, no?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Why are we assuming Catelyn's fear is rational?

Though to be clear I don't see it much as a fear at this point, perhaps an uncomfortable though that one day Jon and/or his progeny might compete with her own offspring, perhaps a way of rationalising the hate she feels towards him when it is really Ned who 'betrayed' her and it happened 14 years ago regardless.

Bastardy doesn't seem to be any less meaningful in the north than in the south, Ned never expresses dissatisfaction with Robb or any of his trueborn sons, and if he did want Jon legitimised he could have asked for it at any point since the King is his best friend, he could have even asked for it as a political favour as a reward for his contribution to the Greyjoy rebellion. He never tries to have it done are there is no reason for Catelyn to believe he will try in the future.

Catelyn simply believes the westerosi nonsense about bastards being treacherous, and when justifying her concerns to Robb later, only comes up with the example of Daemon Blackfyre, a man who not only took 12 years of persuasion to be convinced to take the crown, aided by his brother being notoriously not martial, and rumours of his brothers bastardy, and being tipped over the edge because he wanted to marry his sister. Even with all of that, a legitimisation, being giving the sword that many felt symbolised the iron throne and being blatantly favoured by his father, Daemon succeeded in bringing exactly 0 of the great houses to his cause, being defeated in what was seemingly the first major battle he fought against the Targaryen. Oh and the 'chaos' that his descendants cause? One wedding that involved like 5 deaths, 2 landings which were defeated almost as soon as they occurred, and a final rebellion where the pretender didn't even reach westeros.

[perplexed_mind]

If Robb does not have children/heirs, then Winterfell would go to the next in line, which could possibly be Jon and his children. That's why Catelyn is worried. Even if Jon is younger, his children could try to claim Winterfell.

[Justin Amey]

There was a animated potrayal of Ned stark coming back to Winterfell with baby Jon snow in hand while Cat was looking up from a window and she was still pregnant, Jon is older

[Consigliere]

There was a animated potrayal of Ned stark coming back to Winterfell with baby Jon snow in hand while Cat was looking up from a window and she was still pregnant, Jon is older

That animated portrayal is wrong. Robb was born at Riverrun.

[bemused]

R_T.. :cheers: .. I'm in awe of your last post..

And wait a minute , guys, to say " Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. " doesn't necessarily mean that it had to happen after Ned and Cat were married. Don't forget that they only married because Brandon and Rickard had been killed,and he left RR immediately afterward ... But he had to be already on his way to war, and have men with him. The decision to take up arms was not made after the marriage.

GRRM is a tricksy bird and on campaign can easily refer to however many weeks it took to make the decision, gather the men and get on the move.

ETA: (So Cat thinking that the deed occurred on campaign is not at odds with her knowing Jon is older.)

[Justin Amey]

That animated portrayal is wrong. Robb was born at Riverrun.

the doesn't mater where, point is Jon Snow was born already, Cat was still pregnant with Robb.