Will The Martells Get Revenge on the Lannisters for Elia, The Kids and Oberyn?

[Lion Of The Night]

What we have here is a continuous retarded cycle of revenge.

My point exactly! The Dornish wants revenge, so they go after the Lanister dynasty, they get the key players but some cousin or what not survives, or maybe just a bannerman loyal to the house lost someone in the plan, so they plan their revenge, and so on and so forth....

I would love to see the GRRM add into the story that this desire for revenge is ultimately a doomed venture. I think the Dornish would fit this idea because all the people who they wish to revenge themselves on are already dead. That by seeking to get vengeance on an idea or a legacy is hollow and ultimately will lead to nothing, or worse their own downfall.

[Red Tiger]

I love Doran as a character, really, but for a guy who's all about long-term planning he is amazingly shortsighted in this. The minute he heard of Tywin's demise he should have pulled Quentyn back to Dorne and with Viserys being dead he should have given up on making Arianne the queen. Had he done so House Lannister and Tyrell would have torn eachother apart with petty infighting and paranoia and Dorne would have remained relatively unscathed.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Were I Doran, I'd have captured a few castles in the Dornish Marches while the Lannisters and Tyrells were accepting the surrender of the surviving Storm Lords, Doran could have claimed he was simply attacking their rear and did not know they had already sworn fealty. With the Chaos Tywin probably would have said ok just give us back Myrcella.

[Chebyshov]

I love Doran as a character, really, but for a guy who's all about long-term planning he is amazingly shortsighted in this. The minute he heard of Tywin's demise he should have pulled Quentyn back to Dorne and with Viserys being dead he should have given up on making Arianne the queen. Had he done so House Lannister and Tyrell would have torn eachother apart with petty infighting and paranoia and Dorne would have remained relatively unscathed.

That's exactly what he's trying to do. There's no way he could have foreseen Quent the Dragontamer, and sending Quent to Dany was his "giving up" on Arianne being the queen (people are seriously misinterpreting her TWOW mission). Yes, Quentyn's journey was incredibly risky, but Doran knew that with Tywin dead, the realm was falling into chaos, and they needed their IT candidate to get to Westeros quickly. Varys and Illyrio feel the same way...Dany's been throwing a wrench in everyone's plans.

Dorne is unscathed, as of now. Doran points this out to Hotah, and asks if that is is glory or shame. As for the infighting in KL, he's sending both Nym and Tyene to scope things out so he can assess the situation. His most short-sighted decision was a lack of communication with Arianne from the start.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Were I Doran, I'd have captured a few castles in the Dornish Marches while the Lannisters and Tyrells were accepting the surrender of the surviving Storm Lords, Doran could have claimed he was simply attacking their rear and did not know they had already sworn fealty. With the Chaos Tywin probably would have said ok just give us back Myrcella.

This. Doran could have said he was capturing the castles for the Iron Throne, doing his part as an ally. He could have laid siege to Storm's End, arguing that he was retaking it so it can be the seat of Myrcella and Trystane.

[Red Tiger]

That's exactly what he's trying to do. There's no way he could have foreseen Quent the Dragontamer, and sending Quent to Dany was his "giving up" on Arianne being the queen (people are seriously misinterpreting her TWOW mission). Yes, Quentyn's journey was incredibly risky, but Doran knew that with Tywin dead, the realm was falling into chaos, and they needed their IT candidate to get to Westeros quickly. Varys and Illyrio feel the same way...Dany's been throwing a wrench in everyone's plans.

Dorne is unscathed, as of now. Doran points this out to Hotah, and asks if that is is glory or shame. As for the infighting in KL, he's sending both Nym and Tyene to scope things out so he can assess the situation. His most short-sighted decision was a lack of communication with Arianne from the start.

First of all, love the av.

I don't think having Arianne go out and meeting Aegon will end well for Dorne. Connington and Aegon will want Dorne to join them and the Golden company (many whom want to see The Reach bleed) in spreading death across Westeros. If Doran simply kept Arianne in Dorne then explained to her his original plan and why it no longer works in the long-term, I think things would turn out better.

Even if Dany does not come to Westeros, the Lannisters only truly held power because of Kevan, all you had to do was kill him and watch House Lannister collapse under it's own weight. THEN you can figure out who's gonna be king or queen.

The way I see it, a war is gonna break out which will cost the lives of many Dornish. I don't see Nym and Tyene limiting themselves to scoping things out, I think Nym will try and spill Lannister blood while in KL and Tyene....well there are plenty of hints she's the most vicious of all the Sand Snakes.

[Janicia]

Is military intelligence and transport really good enough for regional players to time their entry into wars to their advantage? We see over and over that truth is weighed down with rumors and it takes a long while to get where you try to go. At first, Doran should have been hesitant to get into the war of the 5 kings because the pretenders might be easily crushed and then the big Lannister army would have nothing better to do than come down to crush him. The battle of Blackwater could have gone either way and was decided in a day. By the time Doran got the news of how it went, it was too late to position himself favorably for the outcome.

And it isn't as if he could snap his fingers and have an army ready to attack something. During the weeks of mustering and traveling, he's very vulnerable. And apparently everybody hates the Dornish, so jumping into a civil war gives all of the many Dornish enemies an excuse to take swipes at Dorne.

I do think Doran is willing to order the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella. He's willing to go to war, which will cause many children's deaths. Unlike many of the lords, he spends time around commoner's children and cares about them. But he thought this through and decided that he wants to go to war. I doubt the children of his greatest enemies are more precious to him than the thousands of children whose deaths he is willing to allow in his pursuit of vengeance.

[Chebyshov]

First of all, love the av.

I don't think having Arianne go out and meeting Aegon will end well for Dorne. Connington and Aegon will want Dorne to join them and the Golden company (many whom want to see The Reach bleed) in spreading death across Westeros. If Doran simply kept Arianne in Dorne then explained to her his original plan and why it no longer works in the long-term, I think things would turn out better.

Even if Dany does not come to Westeros, the Lannisters only truly held power because of Kevan, all you had to do was kill him and watch House Lannister collapse under it's own weight. THEN you can figure out who's gonna be king or queen.

The way I see it, a war is gonna break out which will cost the lives of many Dornish. I don't see Nym and Tyene limiting themselves to scoping things out, I think Nym will try and spill Lannister blood while in KL and Tyene....well there are plenty of hints she's the most vicious of all the Sand Snakes.

Aw thanks, Asami's my girl :cool4:.

Arianne is kind of on a scouting mission herself, but you're right that she's going to be facing heavy pressure. So this is like her first true test, and Doran's aging and ill, so I think he has no choice but to trust her. But there's no automatic alliance with Aegon...she just needs to find out the truth. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about the outcome of her mission, but I don't think it's a failing on Doran's part to give her a shot.

I'm not sure how much Doran understands the politics of KL atm, which is why Nym and Tyene are going to be his eyes. You're right though; will they go rogue? Oberyn did, and he trusted his brother more than his nieces. I guess for him it's risk vs. reward. He needs information about both the HS and the Small Council before he can make informed decisions, and who else can he send? This can all blow up in his face, easily. But again, I don't see it as short-sighted. I think these are his best plays, but given the nature of these lovely Dornish gals, it's not without risk (let's just hope Obara doesn't spear Swann on their way to High Hermitage).

[ChillyPolly]

Unlike many of the lords, he spends time around commoner's children and cares about them.

He spends time around commoner's children. That much is true.

However the whole point of seeing Doran through Hotah's POV is that we see what he is doing, and hear what he is saying, but we do not know what he is thinking. George is DELIBERATELY giving us incomplete information. And misdirecting us in the process.

So we hear him say (paraphrase) "common children look just like highborn children" and we think "awww, how sweet, he cares about even the common children." Except that's not what he said. Nor is it what he meant, unless I am very much mistaken.

And remember, Doran regards even his own children as tools in his political schemes. That's why his wife left him.

[Balerion the one eared cat]

I think they will, and I sincerely hope they do. I think Doran will ally himself with Aegon, perhaps even Dany too so he can take advantage of the dragons, raze KL to the ground and destroy all the Lannisters there. They'll reconcile everything Tywin Lannister style - by keeping Myrcella alive and wedding her to Trystane, thus preventing any further conflicts between the houses and allowing future generations to grow up in peace. I don't even think they'll take the IT for themselves, but rather will crown Aegon and then become a separate kingdom again - Aegon will let them go due to their support of him in the succession process (or perhaps they'll crown Dany....unlikely after Quentyn, I guess. I have no idea who's going to rule the Seven Kingdoms by the end, I'm just pretty sure Dorne will be getting the hell out and seven will become six. Or five, dependent on Northern independence).

Plus, the Sand Snakes and Darkstar are likely going to be following in the footsteps of Nymeria and pulling off some serious conquering.

[Red Tiger]

Aw thanks, Asami's my girl :cool4:.

Arianne is kind of on a scouting mission herself, but you're right that she's going to be facing heavy pressure. So this is like her first true test, and Doran's aging and ill, so I think he has no choice but to trust her. But there's no automatic alliance with Aegon...she just needs to find out the truth. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about the outcome of her mission, but I don't think it's a failing on Doran's part to give her a shot.

I'm not sure how much Doran understands the politics of KL atm, which is why Nym and Tyene are going to be his eyes. You're right though; will they go rogue? Oberyn did, and he trusted his brother more than his nieces. I guess for him it's risk vs. reward. He needs information about both the HS and the Small Council before he can make informed decisions, and who else can he send? This can all blow up in his face, easily. But again, I don't see it as short-sighted. I think these are his best plays, but given the nature of these lovely Dornish gals, it's not without risk (let's just hope Obara doesn't spear Swann on their way to High Hermitage).

What im wondering is, how on Earth did he expect Quentyn to bring Dany into the fold? He sent Quentyn after her because of her dragons, but judging from Quentyn's POV chapters it almost seems like his dad just sent him without any real plan. You have a girl who rode with a murderous Dothraki horde who now has 3 weapons of mass destruction. Is it really so surprising that she might not accept sweet, polite QUentyn?

You have friends in KL who keep an eye out on things, you could not have dispatched some spies to Essos to keep you posted?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Definitely watch Dornish Master Plan, it makes some good points, like let's look at what Doran has accomplished toward his plans, assuming that the Quentyn-Daenerys thing was never actually meant to succeed and was just a feint, because we know he meant for Quentyn to rule Dorne all along from the letter that Arianne read back in the day and misinterpreted. Also assuming the Bloody Mummers were in fact recruited by Doran (including Qyburn, still working for Doran).

1. Tywin poisoned to death by Oberyn, and his body was all stinky in perfect revenge fashion, this still counts even though Tyrion happened to deal the fatal blow

2. Jaime's hand cut off by Bloody Mummers

3. Amory Lorch conspicuously fed to a bear by Bloody Mummers so he is brutally killed but also Tywin can't claim he killed him cuz no evidence (they mention this at some point to Tyrion or someone else)

4. Mountain killed by Oberyn in horrible painful fashion (with confession!) and then turned into a zombie by Qyburn for WoW adventures! (recall from Hotah chapter that upon delivery of giant skull, one sand snake says if the Mountain is ever seen again, everyone will know Cersei to be a liar

5. Myrcella is in Dornish control they can kill her whenever or whatever they want to do with her

So based on that, I would say Doran is doing a pretty fucking good job at the whole revenge thing. So far it seems exactly 3 things have gone wrong: Oberyn killed, Arianne plotting to crown Myrcella and Darkstar cutting off her ear in the chaos, and Quentyn attempting to tame a dragon and eating shit (I don't think he is dead, we never see him die in the POV, the man we see die is unrecognizable with burnt off lips, and the story of his death from his friends is very fishy).

[illrede]

The Dornish (with the exception of Ellaria, the only Dornish character I actually like) are a bunch of amoral warmongering psychos. Doran realises that innocents will suffer if he does go to war, but he will almost certainly do it anyway (at some point, for someone) and has no good reason to do so: his lack of foresight is the only thing to blame for Oberyn's and Quentyn's deaths, Elia's killers are all dead.

I'd like to recommend my all time favourite analysis on the subject: http://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/water-gardens-and-blood-oranges-part-iv-it-ends-in-blood/

Doran wasn't so much skewered by the realization that innocents will suffer if he does go to war keeping him from revenge as in a fork between that and an appreciation of balance of forces- which was impossibly bad up until the Lannisters managed to get half the realm and a bit of stuff from beyond the realm in arms against them, and even then not that good. He had the plan that he had, circuitous and lengthy as it was, because it was the one that stood to actually work given the constraints.

The real difference is that absent Doran (who has absented himself), Dornish policy is in the hands of people blithely ignorant of that or entirely willing to ignore it. Youths that actually believe in the strength born of righteousness, or are willing to take actions without consideration to the Dornish state.

[devilrob6]

Tywin Lannister, Gregor Clegane, Robert Baratheon and Amory Lorch are all dead. They can't kill them to get revenge, nor can they affect them anymore by killing people that are close to them. All they can do is kill people who had nothing to do with it, because they happenened to be related to the ones responsible.

Only Gregor was killed by a Martell to get vengeance, but the Dornish had little satisfaction from that and only want more revenge now for the death of Oberyn (unless Oberyn really poisoned Tywin, i presume that's still just a theory. And even if he did, nobody in Dorne knows it, because Tyrion ended up being the one that killed Tywin).

[Tourney Knight]

Ser Lyn Corbray is still around, but I agree, that all those who had a hand against the Martell's during the rebellion are gone.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Tywin Lannister, Gregor Clegane, Robert Baratheon and Amory Lorch are all dead. They can't kill them to get revenge, nor can they affect them anymore by killing people that are close to them. All they can do is kill people who had nothing to do with it, because they happenened to be related to the ones responsible.

Only Gregor was killed by a Martell to get vengeance, but the Dornish had little satisfaction from that and only want more revenge now for the death of Oberyn (unless Oberyn really poisoned Tywin, i presume that's still just a theory. And even if he did, nobody in Dorne knows it, because Tyrion ended up being the one that killed Tywin).

I would say Oberyn almost certainly poisoned Tywin based on the hints in the text. And again, if the Bloody Mummers were working for Doran the whole time, then Doran also got Amory Lorch and Jaime's hand. So that is 4 key people.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Ser Lyn Corbray is still around, but I agree, that all those who had a hand against the Martell's during the rebellion are gone.

It's true. Corbray is still lurking. He was the only guy I couldn't fit in the Dornish Master Plan. Qyburn says he has contacts in Gulltown. I have no clue what Doran is up to in the Vale, but he's up to something.

[oursisthefury69]

That is the plan, as Doran states so; The answer is assumedly to be revealed in the coming novels, and not by somebody on the boards whose just sat on been sitting on this answer