snake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We really aren't that far from that point. We are basically edging very close to the point where the only things we can do will either shoot us in the face as well or are considered acts of war. The Russian economy is basically falling to pieces at this point but Putin et all do not care. The US is a major geopolitical player but in this case they ultimately have little ability to directly effect the outcome. The US does not have large economic ties to Russia. All it's power in this case is either military-based (which no one wants) or influence-based (which it's already doing by pushing the EU to get on board with smacking Russia around economically). And Putin understands all this. That's why he's doing what he's doing here and did before in Georgia. Because he knows that no one will escalate to armed conflict against him so all he needs to do is weather any non-military backlash and he can do anything he wants. Would lifting of sanctions make much different to Russia's economy with the price of oil so low? I'm thinking it might help a little but not near enough. Russia is screwed until oil prices rise again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fallen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, everyone is afraid of confronting Russia because they have nukes and it would start WWIII and end in a nuclear holocaust. But if this was the case why doesn't Russia just run roughshod over all of it's former satellite states since it knows the world won't try to stop them militarily? I think that this is what the Russians want us to believe. In actuality, they're just bluffing. They would only go nuclear if they were invaded and the end was near and they figure they might as well take as many people out with them as they can. That's why they chip off a little bit here and a little bit there. They take it far enough to reinforce the belief that they're crazy enough to nuke the world, but not too far so as to leave the world no choice but to call their bluff and engage militarily, thus costing them a defeat in a war against Europe and the U.S. and ultimately losing that wildcard that is the threat of nuclear war. I'm not a hawk nor a war-monger. But at what point does the world say enough? This guy is trying to take us back the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snake Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, everyone is afraid of confronting Russia because they have nukes and it would start WWIII and end in a nuclear holocaust. But if this was the case why doesn't Russia just run roughshod over all of it's former satellite states since it knows the world won't try to stop them militarily? I think that this is what the Russians want us to believe. In actuality, they're just bluffing. They would only go nuclear if they were invaded and the end was near and they figure they might as well take as many people out with them as they can. That's why they chip off a little bit here and a little bit there. They take it far enough to reinforce the belief that they're crazy enough to nuke the world, but not too far so as to leave the world no choice but to call their bluff and engage militarily, thus costing them a defeat in a war against Europe and the U.S. and ultimately losing that wildcard that is the threat of nuclear war. I'm not a hawk nor a war-monger. But at what point does the world say enough? This guy is trying to take us back the 1800s. We are confronting Russia. Just not militarily, because heading down that road is insanity(although war by proxy is not out of the question). Russia is aiding the unrest in the East to be sure, and it has annexed Crimea, but they won't go beyond that. They're not strong enough. They are not near strong enough. So do not fret over Russia conquering Europe or even the Eastern NATO states. It's never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What do people think about arming the Ukrainian government with heavy weaponry? Even with Russian support the battles have been mostly skirmishes. A few hundred Abrams tanks might just let them crush the rebellion. I realize that's a lot but we have so many sitting around... It's doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fallen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We are confronting Russia. Just not militarily, because heading down that road is insanity(although war by proxy is not out of the question). Russia is aiding the unrest in the East to be sure, and it has annexed Crimea, but they won't go beyond that. They're not strong enough. They are not near strong enough. So do not fret over Russia conquering Europe or even the Eastern NATO states. It's never going to happen. Oh, as an American, I'm not worried at all. It just sucks that Putin can act like a bully and no one tries to stop him because of nukes, WWIII, nuclear holocaust. Having said that, I don't think Putin is crazy enough to attempt this with a NATO member. What do people think about arming the Ukrainian government with heavy weaponry? Even with Russian support the battles have been mostly skirmishes. A few hundred Abrams tanks might just let them crush the rebellion. I realize that's a lot but we have so many sitting around... It's doable. The problem is not the rebels. The Ukrainian army was beating back the rebels. Then the vacationing Russians came on the scene and all of a sudden the "rebels" were pushing back the Ukrainian army. I think arming the Ukrainian army with tanks and what they refer to now as lethal weapons would cause the Russians to send in more vacationing soldiers. Or, if the "rebels" are being beaten back, the Russians may just end all of pretenses and actually send in their regular army, with the belief that Europe/NATO won't have the cojones to stop him. And the excuse that their simply defending Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep. Anything the US gives the Ukrainians -- that is, in terms of plausible military assistance, not hundreds of tanks they don't know how to use and can't maintain or repair -- can be matched by Russia, and will deepen the rift. There isn't a military solution to this conflict. There isn't a quick, cheap solution that will get Russia to rethink, either. Ukraine needs military assistance, but that will be a waste if it doesn't also rebuild its economy, feed and house the displaced, and reform government and military alike to repair the damage of decades of graft and neglect. That's a big political and financial commitment that Russia will fight every step of the way, and I'm not sure Europe or the US wants to undertake it. If they don't, they should make that clear to Poroshenko so he can cut the best deal he can, rather than bundle out Javelins, counterbattery radars and false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seriously. Is this really worth fighting over? I don't mean for the western Ukrainians. I mean for Europe and the US. I know that a lot of people in my country think that it's some epic failure if Russia takes an inch of land, but the potential for escalation seems immense, and given the Russian roots of eastern Ukraine anyway...what's really at stake here?The whole Donbas secession thing is a bit of a red herring. There wasn't a broad-based nationalist uprising, and Putin really doesn't give a shit about the place. We're in this situation because Yanukovych lost power at a point where Putin was already drifting towards confrontation with the West as a result of his decision return to the presidency. The stakes for the US and Europe are a destabilised Ukraine that becomes a impoverished conflict-wracked failed state and a generational mini Cold War with the Russian Federation. Both or either could result, regardless of whether they back off, muddle through or double down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Double Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think that this is what the Russians want us to believe. In actuality, they're just bluffing. They would only go nuclear if they were invaded and the end was near and they figure they might as well take as many people out with them as they can. That's why they chip off a little bit here and a little bit there. They take it far enough to reinforce the belief that they're crazy enough to nuke the world, but not too far so as to leave the world no choice but to call their bluff and engage militarily.Sorry but this is absolute nonsense, to put it politely. I fear this is a result of US American "news media" crap. The Russian is not a mad man but of a calculating, rational thinking chess player. This is the overwhelming perception for example in German business community and they should know it best. Power projecting empire style for sure, but mad man? Only in the eyes of paranoid US media or politicans like Mr McCain. I can understand the Balts or the Poles but their fear is irrational. I mean not long ago the Poles "feared" that Germany wants to get back East Prussia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, that macho image was deliberately put out there. It was and is successful domestically, too. He wasnt playing chess shirtless after all. Besides, the more accurate description would be a sleazy business man that thinks hes a brilliant chess player while hes sacrificing his queen for a peasant and a silly coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, that macho image was deliberately put out there. It was and is successful domestically, too. He wasnt playing chess shirtless after all. Besides, the more accurate description would be a sleazy business man that thinks hes a brilliant chess player while hes sacrificing his queen for a peasant and a silly coin.I dont agree. Putin's macho behavior is simply sth called Marketing. And it works for the target group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElizabethB. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know that a lot of people in my country think that it's some epic failure if Russia takes an inch of land, ...what's really at stake here?But Russia has taken an inch after inch already and according to international standards (that count) that seems to be all good and well.That's a pretty clear message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But Russia has taken an inch after inch already and according to international standards (that count) that seems to be all good and well.That's a pretty clear message.As far as I remember there was a referendum in Crimea. Maybe it was shady. Allright. Let's do another one under UN/OSCE surveillance. What about that? What about what the PEOPLE want. If the people in Crimea want to be Russians instead of Ukrainians, so be it. I dont give a flying fuck and 99% of those in Germany who matter (= those who create jobs, who pay for the SJWs) neither. What has been acceptable for Kosovo (a "Country" ruled by the Mafia it seems...), should be acceptable for Crimea as well. Honestly, I am sick of the American urge to spread their world view, especially when I see the slaughterhouse called Mexico south of the border. How many murdered in the last 10 years? 150,000? 200,000?Man...here the US could make a difference because they are one of the reasons why Mexico is such a mess. But hey fuck México, let's build a fence and instead play strongman 5000 miles away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElizabethB. Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So go ahead and start a thread about Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I dont agree. Putin's macho behavior is simply sth called Marketing. And it works for the target group Putin may market his machonism but his machoism is not all marketing. As far as I remember there was a referendum in Crimea. Maybe it was shady. Allright. Let's do another one under UN/OSCE surveillance. What about that? What about what the PEOPLE want.If the people in Crimea want to be Russians instead of Ukrainians, so be it. I dont give a flying fuck and 99% of those in Germany who matter (= those who create jobs, who pay for the SJWs) neither. What has been acceptable for Kosovo (a "Country" ruled by the Mafia it seems...), should be acceptable for Crimea as well.Honestly, I am sick of the American urge to spread their world view, especially when I see the slaughterhouse called Mexico south of the border. How many murdered in the last 10 years? 150,000? 200,000?Man...here the US could make a difference because they are one of the reasons why Mexico is such a mess. But hey fuck México, let's build a fence and instead play strongman 5000 miles away... What does this have to do with the American worldview? I can assure you Ukraine does not require the US to tell them they don't want to be invaded. You are just kinda showcasing here that you are shoehorning other issues you have into this conflict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wasn't making any point. I simply provided 5 links. Make of them what you wish. Oh please, don't start playing dumb now. Own your position. You don't quote a specific part of my post, link stuff on that part and then claim you aren't saying anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've started a new thread here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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