The Astronomy Behind the Legends of Planetos

[Waters Gate]

Wouldn't Jon have noticed if the moon here had not been the same than the usual one ? Or rangers of the Night's Watch who did range in the far North ? It's already hard to think there could still be a second moon, but it's even harder to imagine nobody noticed she was different.

Not sure. there are loads of possibilety's perhaps depending on trajectory's, speeds and p.o.v."s, but that might back it too scientific. What if they went to far up north, and actually saw the moon as it was on the other side of the planet? Was that what you were actually alluding too, they having crossed the north pole? That would be interresting

[Voice]

But when almost every time moonrise is mentioned it's placed after sunset, it becomes harder to imagine occurrences when the moon could be spotted in daylight. I've found more examples since my last post on the subject :

From Game Prologue :

From Game 25 :

From Game 42 :

From Storm 07 :

From Dance 12 :

From Feast 20 :

From Dance 32 :

From Dance 41 :

From Dance 71 :

This last one is interesting, it's the only one with Dany and it's placed in the Dothraki Sea, not at the same longitudes as Westeros.

And I also found one counterexample :

From Clash 68 :

That may be the only spotting of the moon in daylight, soon before sunset. But it's when Jon is in the Skirling Pass, far north, and maybe beyond the arctic circle. Do the astronomy amateurs here believe it could be a reason for this exception ?

Very nice catch. That one daylight instance gives it all far more credibility. It was likely a waxing crescent moon.

Regarding Jon's location above the Arctic, I think the only difference would be the point of moonrise and sunset, on the western and eastern horizons, would appear further south than they would in a place like KL.

[Mychel_Redfort]

Not sure. there are loads of possibilety's perhaps depending on trajectory's, speeds and p.o.v."s, but that might back it too scientific. What if they went to far up north, and actually saw the moon as it was on the other side of the planet? Was that what you were actually alluding too, they having crossed the north pole? That would be interresting

No, that's not what I was alluding to. Above the Arctic circle, planets do not always rise or set every day. The sun can stay above the horizon all day, or under. So I wondered if the daylight moonrise could be linked to such "curiosities".

Very nice catch. That one daylight instance gives it all far more credibility. It was likely a waxing crescent moon.

Regarding Jon's location above the Arctic, I think the only difference would be the point of moonrise and sunset, on the western and eastern horizons, would appear further south than they would in a place like KL.

Until the points reach south and the sun and/or the moon stay above or under the horizon all day. But it does say nothing on why the moon would rise earlier.

[Frey family reunion]

Could this be an oversight? The dire wolf / moon connection is very strong, its possible he just wanted the moon symbolism with the wolves.

Or, the sentence could be more generic as far as timing - "Her nights were lit by distant stars and the shimmer of moonlight on snow, but every dawn she woke to darkness. This could simply be a generic description of her wolf dreams, which presumably sometimes occur on the 27 out of 30 days she isnt at the HOBW. Or does wearing a face prevent her from wolf dreaming?

If there were two similar looking moons, or two visible moons at all, the masters would surely know. The only way a second moon exists is as a dead husk, far out in space... I dont even think thats very plausible.

May be reading a bit too much into that passage. I too took it to mean that she had wolf dreams every night, whether or not in the House of Black and White, and obviously she was always outside every night in her wolf dreams which means that many occur under some type of moonlight. But she always wakes up indoors, thus always shrouded in black.

[LmL]

May be reading a bit too much into that passage. I too took it to mean that she had wolf dreams every night, whether or not in the House of Black and White, and obviously she was always outside every night in her wolf dreams which means that many occur under some type of moonlight. But she always wakes up indoors, thus always shrouded in black.

That's more or less what I am getting out of it. But the information that she spends 3 days at the HOBW and 27 working for various other people, and comes back the HOBW only then the moon is dark seems specific - George's moon cycles repeat every 30 days. If he's planning on using that moon cycle length to line up with significant numbers - like the idea that AA's 3 blades took 180 days to make, and thus 6 moon cycles - it make sense to use an even number like 30 just so it all lines up neatly.

[LmL]

Wow, cool thread! Definitely some very interesting propositions going on here. I'll start by addressing some smaller points, while I become more familiar with the over-arching theory. Nice work, Lucifer!

Thank you kind Ser. Always love your threads and comments, so it means a lot.

I like the connection between the second moon and the LN and by extension, the Bloodstone Emperor. That stone had to come from somewhere, and the second moon is a nice possibility. The stone is also magical, and apparently the meteor shower correlated with the birth of dragons. Likely near Asshai.

I assume the OP's theory will eventually get to the strange black stone having come down in the meteor shower? :devil:

Damn right.

I do agree especially with the bolded part. The Five Forts seem so very ancient, and Asshai is said to be a city older than time. This makes me think the abandoned black stone structures predate the LN.

Are you suggesting there have been at least two long night type events? An interesting thought, for sure. In fact, multiple LNs would result in multiple "dawn ages" - the times after the LNs, when the planet awakes again and the handful of survivors begin anew, with almost no memory of those who came before them.

It's certainly possible, but I am not specifically proposing that... toyed with the idea, and can't rule it out, but no, my main idea is that the Great Empire of the Dawn, aka the proto-Valyrians, aka the Ancient Asshai, had dragons and made the ancient fused stone structures before the LN. I feel I have good evidence to corroborate this, and should be a strong point of a future section, probably part 3. I'm really excited to get to the Great Empire stuff, but I have to kind of go in order. The Bloodstone material will lead off the next section, and I'll get into sword composition as well.

Interesting also that the sigil of Tarth is 2 suns and 2 moons. A few more facts from the WB:

I was really hoping for some connection to the Daynes, but no such luck.

Tarth will come into this. Morningstar / Evenstar, you better believe that's important. The two Suns and two moons thing is interesting... I may have to read the Dunk and Egg again to see if there are more astronomy clues around the shield painting or elsewhere. I'm a big fan of Brienne and I think she is in fact a main character who people kind of don't treat like a main character. She's only going to be more important as the story goes on, imo. I am super excited to hear Radio Westeros' next episode on Brienne.

[LmL]

Does anybody know what a Cheshire cat moon is? It's a late stage crescent moon that appears to be smiling. According to the OP one of the moons, probably a/the black one, was destroyed by Lightbringer-the-comet. Further, the OP calls this moon an "elf moon," while noting that the CotF serve as ASoIaF's version of elves.

Well, not too long before Robert's Rebellion there was in infamous outlaw gang called the Kingswood Brotherhood. One of their members was the notorious Smiling Knight. As I stated above, certain types of moons can be described as smiling. But this character is not just smiling, he's a knight. Smiling = moon, Knight = night. So, not only can the SK be read as a stand in for the OP's proposed moon (of) night/black moon, it also happens to fit neatly with the the "elf moon" description as well, since the Smiling Knight was a member of the Kingswood Brotherhood; Children of the Forest.

The Smiling Knight briefly crossed swords with young Jaime Lannister. The OP also mentioned lion-sun symbolism. So what do we have here? The symbolic sun and moon battling to a standstill. But then Ser Arthur Dayne comes along with Dawn. And the OP says that Dawn and the red comet(s) are both versions of Lightbringer. And he posits that the comet version of LB destroyed the black, elf moon. The Smiling Knight didn't fare any better. As above, so below. He was even bleeding from a dozen wounds before he died.

Hey hey, very nice! It sure does look like a metaphor for the celestial events proposed. Not to get ahead of myself, but, I am seeing a connection between the AA story and the LH story. 12 wounds, and then the killing wound, calls to mind the Last Hero and his 12 companions, who I definitely think have an astronomical counterpart. The 12+1 pattern almost always turns up around the Lightbringer symbolism.

We are going to have to keep looking for elf - Nissa connections, because the COTF definitely play into this ancient drama. Great job J Stargaryen.

[Waters Gate]

No, that's not what I was alluding to. Above the Arctic circle, planets do not always rise or set every day. The sun can stay above the horizon all day, or under. So I wondered if the daylight moonrise could be linked to such "curiosities".

Well different phases of the moon rise and fall at different intervalls on the day. A full moon for ex is at its heighest iirc at midnight, and a new moon or darkened moon on midday, so a new moon for ex. can only be witnessed by day. Every phase has a certain intervall of 12 hours in between which it can be seen which is different for each phase. A waxing moon, starting with the crescent, will be seen at its highest at the evening towards nightfall, whereas a waning moon ending with a crescent will be seen more late at night towards dusk.

Grrm afcourse doesn't mention anything about waning or waxing, a crescent moon is a crescent moon and it would be difficult for the reader to tell if it was waning or waxing, unless there was some cronological indication that followed from having witnessed a phase like full moon or new moon not too long ago.

[Voice]

Well different phases of the moon rise and fall at different intervalls on the day. A full moon for ex is at its heighest iirc at midnight, and a new moon or darkened moon on midday, so a new moon for ex. can only be witnessed by day. Every phase has a certain intervall of 12 hours in between which it can be seen which is different for each phase. A waxing moon, starting with the crescent, will be seen at its highest at the evening towards nightfall, whereas a waning moon ending with a crescent will be seen more late at night towards dusk.

Grrm afcourse doesn't mention anything about waning or waxing, a crescent moon is a crescent moon and it would be difficult for the reader to tell if it was waning or waxing, unless there was some cronological indication that followed from having witnessed a phase like full moon or new moon not too long ago.

Precisely. This is why I was having trouble characterizing Planetos' satellite as having an orbit like our own moon. For it to have phases at all would suggest it is indeed a satellite, but the fact they they were only observable after dark suggested a strange orbit indeed.

[Mychel_Redfort]

Well different phases of the moon rise and fall at different intervalls on the day. A full moon for ex is at its heighest iirc at midnight, and a new moon or darkened moon on midday, so a new moon for ex. can only be witnessed by day. Every phase has a certain intervall of 12 hours in between which it can be seen which is different for each phase. A waxing moon, starting with the crescent, will be seen at its highest at the evening towards nightfall, whereas a waning moon ending with a crescent will be seen more late at night towards dusk.

Grrm afcourse doesn't mention anything about waning or waxing, a crescent moon is a crescent moon and it would be difficult for the reader to tell if it was waning or waxing, unless there was some cronological indication that followed from having witnessed a phase like full moon or new moon not too long ago.

Yes. This chart summarizes it pretty well.

Precisely. This is why I was having trouble characterizing Planetos' satellite as having an orbit like our own moon. For it to have phases at all would suggest it is indeed a satellite, but the fact they they were only observable after dark suggested a strange orbit indeed.

There's clearly trouble, yes. Take this quote from AGOT's Prologue :

Twilight deepened. The cloudless sky turned a deep purple, the color of an old bruise, then faded to black. The stars began to come out. A half-moon rose. Will was grateful for the light.

A half-moon rises soon after the stars have begun to come out. But according to the chart, a waning half-moon should rise around midnight, literally in the middle of the night, and not just after nightfall. So either GRRM didn't care being consistent with the moon rises, or magic is involved.

[LmL]

What I am not seeing is any plausible explanation for a moon only being visible at night except that it is locked on the far side of the planet... In which case it would no phases at all. Therefore I can only assume it's poetic license, and the moon just rises when it's convenient for the given chapter.

[Voice]

What I am not seeing is any plausible explanation for a moon only being visible at night except that it is locked on the far side of the planet... In which case it would no phases at all. Therefore I can only assume it's poetic license, and the moon just rises when it's convenient for the given chapter.

Indeed. The only alternative is that Planetos is not a part of a heliocentric solar system, or its satellite exhibits an exceedingly strange orbit.

[Mychel_Redfort]

Ok, so i word searched every book except ASOS (don't have that one) for "eclipse."

There's one mention of "eclipse" in Storm 04, and it's also a metaphorical one.

"Is it true that Stannis was put to rout by Renly's ghost?"

Bronn smiled thinly. "From the winch towers, all we saw was banners in the mud and men throwing down their spears to run, but there's hundreds in the pot shops and brothels who'll tell you how they saw Lord Renly kill this one or that one. Most of Stannis's host had been Renly's to start, and they went right back over at the sight of him in that shiny green armor."

After all his planning, after the sortie and the bridge of ships, after getting his face slashed in two, Tyrion had been eclipsed by a dead man. If indeed Renly is dead. Something else he would need to look into.

[LmL]

Ok, so the connection between this quote and the one about Jon always being eclipsed by his dead hero brother is that in both cases, the person doing to eclipsing is a dead hero, and both people being eclipsed are potential heads of the dragon - Jon and Tyrion.

Both quotes referenced Stannis as well - the first one has Mel comparing Jon being eclipsed by Robb while Robb was alive to Stannis living in “his brother’s shadow” while he was still alive. Stannis seems to be the fake Azor Ahai, but the sun imagery is still there. Obviously Jon has tons of AA imagery, and Tyrion has lots of sun imagery as well as being Aerys’ son and a head of the dragon. All three are metaphors for the sun, and the sun was eclipsed by the soon to be dead hero moon, the elf moon, at the moment when the comet hit, according to my theory. Seems like it all fits pretty well.

Weird that he never talks about eclipses in the normal sense. Does that mean the remaining moon somehow never passes directly in front of the sun?

[Mychel_Redfort]

What I am not seeing is any plausible explanation for a moon only being visible at night except that it is locked on the far side of the planet... In which case it would no phases at all. Therefore I can only assume it's poetic license, and the moon just rises when it's convenient for the given chapter.

Well, you unveiled a theory involving a hidden major astronomical event with a moon, and on the other side GRRM would fall in the cliché that the moon rises after sunset every night ? It's possible, but I find it hard to believe.

[Voice]

Weird that he never talks about eclipses in the normal sense. Does that mean the remaining moon somehow never passes directly in front of the sun?

It does. And, the moon only being observable by night also fits with that assumption.

--------------------------------------------------

I think this is pointing toward a very strange orbit, if an orbit exists at all.

Just as seasons are controlled by magical forces on Planetos, so might the lunar cycle. I'd rather it not be, of course, but it is a possibility we have to bear in mind. Some ancient magic may have forced planetos to stop revolving around the sun, or stopped the moon from passing between them.

Or, the sun may orbit around Planetos. I don't particularly like this idea either, but with proper timing, it could explain the discrepancy in the lunar cycle.

If I might continue... a magical cause for this discrepancy is already alluded to in text:

“Oh, my sweet summer child,” Old Nan said quietly, “what do you know of fear? Fear is for the winter, my little lord, when the snows fall a hundred feet deep and the ice wind comes howling out of the north. Fear is for the long night, when the sun hides its face for years at a time, and little children are born and live and die all in darkness while the direwolves grow gaunt and hungry, and the white walkers move through the woods.”

Sounds quite eclipse-ish to my ears :D

Magic is the cause of the seasons, and magic the cause of the long night. Therefore, it is quite fitting for magic to be the cause of a solar eclipse lasting "years at a time." If so, magic controls the lunar cycle, as solar eclipses are caused by it, as the moon passes between planet and sun. :smoking:

[LmL]

It does. And, the moon only being observable by night also fits with that assumption.

--------------------------------------------------

I think this is pointing toward a very strange orbit, if an orbit exists at all.

Just as seasons are controlled by magical forces on Planetos, so might the lunar cycle. I'd rather it not be, of course, but it is a possibility we have to bear in mind. Some ancient magic may have forced planetos to stop revolving around the sun, or stopped the moon from passing between them.

Or, the sun may orbit around Planetos. I don't particularly like this idea either, but with proper timing, it could explain the discrepancy in the lunar cycle.

If I might continue... a magical cause for this discrepancy is already alluded to in text:

“Oh, my sweet summer child,” Old Nan said quietly, “what do you know of fear? Fear is for the winter, my little lord, when the snows fall a hundred feet deep and the ice wind comes howling out of the north. Fear is for the long night, when the sun hides its face for years at a time, and little children are born and live and die all in darkness while the direwolves grow gaunt and hungry, and the white walkers move through the woods.”

Sounds quite eclipse-ish to my ears :D

Magic is the cause of the seasons, and magic the cause of the long night. Therefore, it is quite fitting for magic to be the cause of a solar eclipse lasting "years at a time." If so, magic controls the lunar cycle, as solar eclipses are caused by it, as the moon passes between planet and sun. :smoking:

The issue here is whether or not the Long Night was a one time event, or whether or not it re-occurs regularly. My theory is that the last one was the first, and is the result of the moon destruction - which yes, involved magic. I suspect the comet impacting the moon caused a “magical” chain-reaction type of explosion, which explains why the moon exploded, instead of just taking a huge impact. If the Long Night comes again, then I predict it will be because the comet in the story is going to impact the second moon, as the Qarthine legend says.

I generally buy the idea that seasons used to be regular, but were disturbed by the LN event. That fits with the moon destruction as cause of LN hypothesis.

Your idea sounds like the LN was the result of a once-every-10,000 year alignment where the remaining moon eclipses the sun, but for several years instead of a few hours. This is interesting, and it had not occurred to me. But, if the surviving moon has an orbit slow enough where it would be in between the moon and planet for years, wouldn’t that totally preclude the possibility of a 30 day lunar cycle, which is pretty clearly laid out in the Arya chapters at the HOB&W?

[LmL]

Well, you unveiled a theory involving a hidden major astronomical event with a moon, and on the other side GRRM would fall in the cliché that the moon rises after sunset every night ? It's possible, but I find it hard to believe.

I hear you. I’d really like to get to the bottom of this. Hopefully we can. This conversation feels like it is breaking new ground, or bringing together formerly scattered ideas... Let’s crack this nut if we can.

[Mychel_Redfort]

Just as seasons are controlled by magical forces on Planetos, so might the lunar cycle. I'd rather it not be, of course, but it is a possibility we have to bear in mind.

It would be the "less worse" answer

Some ancient magic may have forced planetos to stop revolving around the sun, or stopped the moon from passing between them.

Or, the sun may orbit around Planetos. I don't particularly like this idea either, but with proper timing, it could explain the discrepancy in the lunar cycle.

In a SSM, GRRM states Planetos makes one revolution around the sun in one year, like Earth.

If I might continue... a magical cause for this discrepancy is already alluded to in text:

Oh, my sweet summer child, Old Nan said quietly, what do you know of fear? Fear is for the winter, my little lord, when the snows fall a hundred feet deep and the ice wind comes howling out of the north. Fear is for the long night, when the sun hides its face for years at a time, and little children are born and live and die all in darkness while the direwolves grow gaunt and hungry, and the white walkers move through the woods.

Sounds quite eclipse-ish to my ears :D

Magic is the cause of the seasons, and magic the cause of the long night. Therefore, it is quite fitting for magic to be the cause of a solar eclipse lasting "years at a time." If so, magic controls the lunar cycle, as solar eclipses are caused by it, as the moon passes between planet and sun. :smoking:

This has potential. I always read the quote as the sun being clouded for years, but your way could make sense.

[LmL]

Yes, I was interpreting the “maiden made of light turned her back” and “the sun hides its face for years at a time” to refer to the nuclear winter scenario that I proposed.

By the way, I have more corroborations for the comet-shattering-moon-caused-the-long-night theory coming in part 2.

It’s also possible both ideas have common ground, or room to coexist. What if the destroyed moon eclipsed the sun for years, only to be destroyed by the comet, and that actually ended the “LN eclipse.’ I don’t find this likely, but I’m just trying to think flexibly here.

It’s certainly possible that the explosion of the second moon affected the orbit of the surviving one.