Ukraine 17: I really wanted to use the "Where's Putin" subtitle, dang it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Arakan,

I don't think Valdi Put Put wants to conquer the world. I think he wants NATO off what he claims is Russia's front porch. Forcing a conflict in the Baltics could accomplish that goal if our pledges to protect the stratigically vunerable Baltic Republics are just a bluff and he's willing to call it.

[Biglose]

Snake,

Because, for whatever reason, Putin is terrified of NATO. Forcing a confrontation over the Baltics could break NATO to splinters if the core nations are unwilling to defend the Baltic republics from strong Russian thrust. I fear Putin is willing to risk a strong NATO response if he believes failure or surrendering the Baltics would destroy the NATO alliance.

No, he would not. The conflict with ukraine was mostly because of the historic significance of the region and the fact that he felt he had to draw a line since he was under the impression the west does not take im serious. (->Lybia)

Attacking the Baltic states would mean he would really roll the dice. Even if he does not get a full out war, it could revive Nato and strengthen american leadership. And even if he splinters Nato, so what? The US are over 90% of its capability anyway.Thats what I meant with Putin is at least rational. The issue with ukraine was illeagel, he had some very bad luck, but it made sense and he even might be able to repair the damage he took in the west.

Why? Because even the US kind of needs russia or to be more precise it would make a lot of things easyer.

I mean for fucks sake thats the level we are talking about:

http://www.dw.de/von-der-leyen-dubious-about-natos-2-percent-rule/a-17907143 Link from the From Jaro Limnell Artikle you linked.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Biglose,

Does Putin fear "encirclement" by NATO?

[Biglose]

Biglose,

Does Putin fear "encirclement" by NATO?

I guess so to a certain extend. But what I think he fears much more is becoming a second Jelzin.

[snake]

Snake,

Because, for whatever reason, Putin is terrified of NATO. Forcing a confrontation over the Baltics could break NATO to splinters if the core nations are unwilling to defend the Baltic republics from strong Russian thrust. I fear Putin is willing to risk a strong NATO response if he believes failure or surrendering the Baltics would destroy the NATO alliance.

Ser Scot,

I think your fears are unfounded. Russia would never dare openly attack a NATO member state. Their main concern now is bringing the conflict in Ukraine to an end with a favourable Russian outcome. Then trying to rebuild their economy. Russia wants to repair relations with the EU, insofar as they can, and news out of the EU is that some members are hoping for just that. Slovakia being one as their PM has called sanctions "useless and meaningless".

How do you feel about the EU unlikely to add new sanctions and waiting till July to extend any that are in place? Think if the ceasefire holds that sanctions will be eased? Starting to look like a possibility.

[The Iceman of the North]

Arakan,

I don't think Valdi Put Put wants to conquer the world. I think he wants NATO off what he claims is Russia's front porch. Forcing a conflict in the Baltics could accomplish that goal if our pledges to protect the stratigically vunerable Baltic Republics are just a bluff and he's willing to call it.

What makes you believe that NATO is a bluff?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Biglose,

If Putin questions NATO's resolve because he sees the waffling over Ukraine and bickering over Ukraine and attacking the Baltics could deeply damage if not eliminate this alliance he fears couldn't this be a gamble he's willing to take in a few years?

After Georgia some of us questioned whether Putin would go after Crimea. We were told such a move would be unthinkable. It happened....

[Mr Fixit]

Russia won't attack the Baltic states. Where does this silly notion come from? Both Russian foreign "adventures", in Ukraine and in Georgia, came as a result of Russians fearing the NATO expansion to those two countries, issues that have been well-known Russian sensitive spots for year back.

http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

Here's a wikileaks find - sent by US ambassador William Burns in 2008 titled NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES

Anyone who knows anything about politics (and isn't a scaremonger) knows full well that talk of Putin invading Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and particularly Poland is just that: talk.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Iceman,

The lack of forces in place to actually defend the Baltic republics. It would take a serious commitment of ground forces to turn back a Russian thrust. 600 troops will not do squat. In the time it takes to get forces in place to defend the Baltics the fighting would already be over.

Mr. Fixit,

Russia taking Crimea by force was declared silly back in 2008.

[eta]

And for clarities sake I'm not saying this is likely, I'm saying if we allow Ukraine to be further dismembered, it is possible.

[Castel]

Iceman,

The lack of forces in place to actually defend the Baltic republics. It would take a serious commitment of ground forces to turn back a Russian thrust. 600 troops will not do squat. In the time it takes to get forces in place to defend the Baltics the fighting would already be over.

Mr. Fixit,

Russia taking Crimea by force was declared silly back in 2008.

[eta]

And for clarities sake I'm not saying this is likely, I'm saying if we allow Ukraine to be further dismembered, it is possible.

What's possible is not important though, a lot of things are possible. That's a horrendously lazy low to set.

[The Iceman of the North]

Iceman,

The lack of forces in place to actually defend the Baltic republics. It would take a serious commitment of ground forces to turn back a Russian thrust. 600 troops will not do squat. In the time it takes to get forces in place to defend the Baltics the fighting would already be over.

Eh, the plan have never been to stop a Russian thrust on the border. You mobilize your forces and start pushing Russia back. It doesn't matter if the Russian are occupying all of the Baltics by the time the real fighting starts.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Iceman,

I thought the NATO mandate is to defend the member States not promise to invade and reconquer them after they are beaten into submission. Additionally, do you really think the NATO member States would launch a reconquest of the Baltics if they were over whelmed by a Russian army?

Castel,

Many claimed Russia would never invade Ukraine. Look what happened. That was classified as a remote possibility in 2008. I think planning and preparing for "possiblities" is what a Military alliance is there to do.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Iceman,

The lack of forces in place to actually defend the Baltic republics. It would take a serious commitment of ground forces to turn back a Russian thrust. 600 troops will not do squat. In the time it takes to get forces in place to defend the Baltics the fighting would already be over.

Mr. Fixit,

Russia taking Crimea by force was declared silly back in 2008.

[eta]

And for clarities sake I'm not saying this is likely, I'm saying if we allow Ukraine to be further dismembered, it is possible.

Can you provide a cite to any noted foreign policy analyst who made such a declaration?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Nestor,

I'm talking about our discussion here in 2008 revolving around the Russian invasion of Georgia.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Yeah, Russia would never consider using force to intimidate the West into bowing to its demands:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-starts-nationwide-show-of-force/ar-AA9OEpE

From the article:

More than 45,000 Russian troops as well as war planes and submarines started military exercises across much of the country on Monday in one of the Kremlin's biggest shows of force since its ties with the West plunged to Cold War-lows.

President Vladimir Putin called the Navy's Northern Fleet to full combat readiness in exercises in Russia's Arctic North apparently aimed at dwarfing military drills in neighboring Norway, a NATO member.

"New challenges and threats to military security require the armed forces to further boost their military capabilities. Special attention must be paid to newly created strategic formations in the north," Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, quoted by RIA news agency.

Shoigu said the order came from Putin, who has promised to spend more than 21 trillion rubles ($340 billion) by the end of the decade to overhaul Russia's fighting forces.

Putin made his first public appearance since March 5 on Monday, an absence from view that had fueled feverish speculation over his health as well as his grip on power. He was meeting Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev at the Constantine Palace outside Russia's second city of St. Petersburg.

Nope nothing to see hear. Move along.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Nestor,

I'm talking about our discussion here in 2008 revolving around the Russian invasion of Georgia.

Can you provide a citation to support your claim?

[ElizabethB.]

Russia does declare NATO and the West its enemy, but I doubt it would challenge it, yet.

Georgia and Ukraine are both unaligned. So, when its expansion policy continues it would probably target another unaligned.

[Prue]

I read today that there are rumours that Putin is in Switzerland at the moment because his mistress had their baby daughter.

[snake]

I read today that there are rumours that Putin is in Switzerland at the moment because his mistress had their baby daughter.

Putin was in Russia today meeting with the Kyrgyz President. He did not say where he was but said life would be boring without gossip.

[Castel]

Can you provide a citation to support your claim?

He probably can.

I mean, it's a layup of a claim "someone on this message board at some point over the years said that invading Ukraine was absurd ." How can you not find a single person to make the argument?