The Blackfyre

[Lost Melnibonean]

39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You do know that Varys and Illyrio are trying to seat Rhaegar Targaryen's son on the Iron Throne, right?

The Blackfyres are dead and forgotten. If it ever came out that Prince Aegon was actually the son of a fat commoner from Pentos they could kiss their plan goodbye.

Yes, Rhaegar's son... As your namesake himself said to a dying man...

Quote

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Epilogue, Dance

Obviously, there can be no doubt that the noble young lad is... Aegon. [smiles enigmatically]

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

<snippage

The Blackfyres are dead and forgotten. 

Extinct in the male line. Dead is debatable. Forgotten? By no means. Several characters have mentioned them. If they were truly forgotten, they wouldn't keep coming up.

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yes, Rhaegar's son... As your namesake himself said to a dying man...

Epilogue, Dance

Obviously, there can be no doubt that the noble young lad is... Aegon. [smiles enigmatically]

That isn't the point at all.

The point is that you gave a bunch of quotes about lasting blood feuds giving the impression that Varys and Illyrio are playing a similar game.

But the point of such feuds is that you want eradicate the other side and announce your triumph to the world. Do you think a Bracken would like the idea to take over the Riverlands in the guise of a Blackwood?

That just doesn't make any sense. And thus it doesn't make any sense to assume that this is a Blackfyre revenge game.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Extinct in the male line. Dead is debatable. Forgotten? By no means. Several characters have mentioned them. If they were truly forgotten, they wouldn't keep coming up.

I was using hyperbole. The last time the Blackfyres showed their faces was in 260 AC, forty years ago. And there they were eradicated. The point I was trying to make is that the Blackfyre cause is gone. There is no mentioning of any noble houses in Westeros who are still secret Blackfyre loyalists. In fact, even back during the War of the Ninepenny Kings the Blackfyre cause did get no support from Westeros (and apparently next to no support back in 236 AC).

All we have is talk that some members of the Golden Company believe they have friends in the Reach. That's well and good. But that doesn't mean those people are Blackfyre loyalists.

Extinct in the male line means that they are extinct as a royal/noble house. Any Blackfyre daughters would have been born with that name but they don't pass it on to their children. Prince Aegon may have Blackfyre ancestors (just as Robert, Brienne, the Martells, and the Plumms have Targaryen ancestors) but that doesn't make him a Blackfyre.

Even Illyrio Mopatis isn't a Blackfyre. He may be the Blackfyre heir, but he is a Mopatis, whatever that's worth. And we have no reason to believe that Maelys Blackfyre did have any female kin or descendants. It is quite possible that House Blackfyre did not die out in the female line because Daemon Blackfyre's daughters lived, married, and had issue of their own.

[Lost Melnibonean]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That isn't the point at all.

The point is that you gave a bunch of quotes about lasting blood feuds giving the impression that Varys and Illyrio are playing a similar game.

But the point of such feuds is that you want eradicate the other side and announce your triumph to the world. Do you think a Bracken would like the idea to take over the Riverlands in the guise of a Blackwood?

That just doesn't make any sense. And thus it doesn't make any sense to assume that this is a Blackfyre revenge game.

Perhaps you are right. Perhaps the Hatfields and Mc... err, Brackens and Blackwoods, only exist in ASOIAF because The George as just itching to tell their side story. I'm sure Bloodraven's apparent support for Jon, and the support for Aegon of the company founded by Bittersteel to enthrone The Blackfyre is just a coincidence. Those guys don't give a fig for any old Blackfyre. They just want to go home. After all, black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I was using hyperbole. The last time the Blackfyres showed their faces was in 260 AC, forty years ago. And there they were eradicated. The point I was trying to make is that the Blackfyre cause is gone. There is no mentioning of any noble houses in Westeros who are still secret Blackfyre loyalists. In fact, even back during the War of the Ninepenny Kings the Blackfyre cause did get no support from Westeros (and apparently next to no support back in 236 AC).

All we have is talk that some members of the Golden Company believe they have friends in the Reach. That's well and good. But that doesn't mean those people are Blackfyre loyalists.

Extinct in the male line means that they are extinct as a royal/noble house. Any Blackfyre daughters would have been born with that name but they don't pass it on to their children. Prince Aegon may have Blackfyre ancestors (just as Robert, Brienne, the Martells, and the Plumms have Targaryen ancestors) but that doesn't make him a Blackfyre.

Even Illyrio Mopatis isn't a Blackfyre. He may be the Blackfyre heir, but he is a Mopatis, whatever that's worth. And we have no reason to believe that Maelys Blackfyre did have any female kin or descendants. It is quite possible that House Blackfyre did not die out in the female line because Daemon Blackfyre's daughters lived, married, and had issue of their own.

If Sansa and Tyrion had a wee lad--let's call him Hoster Lannister, and if Rickon drowns on the way home from Skagos, and Bran remains on his wooden throne, and if Edmure's child is stillborn, and he and Brynden are killed in an escape attempt, would this wee Hoster of House Lannister have a claim to Winterfell? Riverrun? 

[Tucu]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Extinct in the male line means that they are extinct as a royal/noble house. Any Blackfyre daughters would have been born with that name but they don't pass it on to their children. Prince Aegon may have Blackfyre ancestors (just as Robert, Brienne, the Martells, and the Plumms have Targaryen ancestors) but that doesn't make him a Blackfyre.

If this was an absolute rule, neither House Lannister or House Stark would have survived. If no male heir is available, a husband or son of a female heir can adopt the name and continue the lineage.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Tucu said:

If this was an absolute rule, neither House Lannister or House Stark would have survived. If no male heir is available, a husband or son of a female heir can adopt the name and continue the lineage.

But the Blackfyres have been landless exiles for over a hundred years. They aren't a noble or royal house in any meaningful sense.

Granted, anybody who conquers a throne and becomes king can then style himself as he or she likes but right now there simply are no Blackfyres left.

Illyrio or Aegon naming themselves Blackfyre gives them as much credibility as those Strongs, Peakes, Coles, and Mudds with the Golden Company. In the companion of people who men can choose their own names blood and ancestry don't matter all that much.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Actually, Lord Varys, Daemon's wife was Tyroshi royalty. So while any current Blackfyre descendants might not be known as Blackfyres and noble, in reality they do have noble ancestry on the Essosi side, not to mention that Daemon's other daughter(s) could well have married into a noble Essosi house.  You speak as if Westerosi nobility is the only kind that matters.

Yes men can choose their own names, but who in their right mind would deliberately boast about being descended from House Blackfyre, repeated losers of wars to claim a throne that was never theirs? Only people who actually have that blood, and actually believe there was a claim. Having the blood without believing the claim to the throne would not make one brag, especially given which Targaryen king they are descended from. And no one without the blood has any reason to believe the claim to the throne--it's too big a longshot to make it worthwhile for anyone outside the family to claim the heritage.

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Actually, Lord Varys, Daemon's wife was Tyroshi royalty. So while any current Blackfyre descendants might not be known as Blackfyres and noble, in reality they do have noble ancestry on the Essosi side, not to mention that Daemon's other daughter(s) could well have married into a noble Essosi house.  You speak as if Westerosi nobility is the only kind that matters.

The Tyroshi don't have any kings, so Lady Rohanne definitely wasn't royal. In fact, she might not even have been noble in the true sense of the word. All we do know is that she was the daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh, but that is an elected office. The Archon is chosen from among the noblest and most wealthiest men of the city but we don't know whether Rohanne's father was one of the noblemen or an up-jumped merchant like Illyrio Mopatis. Nor do we know what happened to said Archon and whether the family remained in good standing with their peers after his term ended. Keep in mind how quickly the Rogares of Lys fell after they had overreached themselves.

In that sense I'd not stress the fact that the Blackfyres were nobles on their mother's side. Especially not Rohanne's grandchildren or great-grandchildren (as of yet we have no idea where Maelys and Daemon (IV) fit into the Blackfyre family tree.

My point simply is that Illyrio Mopatis most definitely is no nobleman and thus Prince Aegon isn't, either, if he is his son.

28 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Yes men can choose their own names, but who in their right mind would deliberately boast about being descended from House Blackfyre, repeated losers of wars to claim a throne that was never theirs? Only people who actually have that blood, and actually believe there was a claim. Having the blood without believing the claim to the throne would not make one brag, especially given which Targaryen king they are descended from. And no one without the blood has any reason to believe the claim to the throne--it's too big a longshot to make it worthwhile for anyone outside the family to claim the heritage.

Well, people in the Golden Company call themselves Cole, Mudd, Peake, Strong, and Toyne. Those who just name themselves this way all named themselves after men whose cause was lost and whose legitimate lines died out. The Coles never even were a noble house in the first place. Criston Cole was just a steward's son.

I see no reason why anybody hanging out with the Golden Company or being sellsword with Valyrian features should not call himself Blackfyre. It doesn't look more stupid than calling yourself Mudd or Cole. And people in the Golden Company certainly would like fighting alongside one of Daemon Blackfyre's descendants. Keep in mind how Sweet Donnel Hill claims he is a Lannister bastard. There is no proof for that claim, either.

Varys and Illyrio know the Blackfyre cause is lost. That's why they work for a Targaryen restoration now. Either Rhaegar's son reclaims the Iron Throne or their game is over (unless they jump ship). The idea to unite Westeros under a Blackfyre descendant through some obscure female line is ridiculous. Such a man might call himself 'Blackfyre' all day long but the lords of Westeros would mock him as a Mopatis anyway.

[Jon Fossoway]

Err, doesn't Aegon claim he's the son of Rhaegar, hence, a Targaryen?

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Tyroshi don't have any kings, so Lady Rohanne definitely wasn't royal. In fact, she might not even have been noble in the true sense of the word. All we do know is that she was the daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh, but that is an elected office. The Archon is chosen from among the noblest and most wealthiest men of the city but we don't know whether Rohanne's father was one of the noblemen or an up-jumped merchant like Illyrio Mopatis. Nor do we know what happened to said Archon and whether the family remained in good standing with their peers after his term ended. Keep in mind how quickly the Rogares of Lys fell after they had overreached themselves.

In that sense I'd not stress the fact that the Blackfyres were nobles on their mother's side. Especially not Rohanne's grandchildren or great-grandchildren (as of yet we have no idea where Maelys and Daemon (IV) fit into the Blackfyre family tree.

My point simply is that Illyrio Mopatis most definitely is no nobleman and thus Prince Aegon isn't, either, if he is his son.

Well, people in the Golden Company call themselves Cole, Mudd, Peake, Strong, and Toyne. Those who just name themselves this way all named themselves after men whose cause was lost and whose legitimate lines died out. The Coles never even were a noble house in the first place. Criston Cole was just a steward's son.

I see no reason why anybody hanging out with the Golden Company or being sellsword with Valyrian features should not call himself Blackfyre. It doesn't look more stupid than calling yourself Mudd or Cole. And people in the Golden Company certainly would like fighting alongside one of Daemon Blackfyre's descendants. Keep in mind how Sweet Donnel Hill claims he is a Lannister bastard. There is no proof for that claim, either.

Varys and Illyrio know the Blackfyre cause is lost. That's why they work for a Targaryen restoration now. Either Rhaegar's son reclaims the Iron Throne or their game is over (unless they jump ship). The idea to unite Westeros under a Blackfyre descendant through some obscure female line is ridiculous. Such a man might call himself 'Blackfyre' all day long but the lords of Westeros would mock him as a Mopatis anyway.

I thought you believed Illyrio was a descendant of Aegor Rivers called Bittersteel and Calla, daughter of Daemon I of House Blackfyre? Perhaps you also believe that over three or four generations, Illyrio's blood had become irredeemable tainted? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 minutes ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

Err, doesn't Aegon claim he's the son of Rhaegar, hence, a Targaryen?

Yeap. And Jon claims he's the natural son of Eddard Stark, hence, a Snow. 

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I thought you believed Illyrio was a descendant of Aegor Rivers called Bittersteel and Calla, daughter of Daemon I of House Blackfyre? Perhaps you also believe that over three or four generations, Illyrio's blood had become irredeemable tainted? 

Daemon and Aegor and all their children and grandchildren were attainted traitors, were they not? Not to mention that they were all just legitimized bastards, anyway.

In exile whatever Blackfyre relations there were sunk down to the level of bravos (Illyrio) and slaves (Varys, if he is one). They are nothing but commoners with some king among their distant ancestors.

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Daemon and Aegor and all their children and grandchildren were attainted traitors, were they not? Not to mention that they were all just legitimized bastards, anyway.

In exile whatever Blackfyre relations there were sunk down to the level of bravos (Illyrio) and slaves (Varys, if he is one). They are nothing but commoners with some king among their distant ancestors.

Just because one is attainted, doesn't mean his children are commoners, does it? And isn't Alayne--daughter of Lord Petyr of House Baelish and a gentlewoman of Braavos, daughter of a merchant prince--said to be gently born? 

Is a bravo who earns a living selling his sword, by definition a commoner? And we don't know that Varys was born a slave. 

[OuttaOldtown]

"Some say knowledge is power. Some tell us that all power comes from the gods. Others say it derives from law. Yet that day on the steps of Baelor’s Sept, our godly High Septon and the lawful Queen Regent and your ever-so-knowledgeable servant were as powerless as any cobbler or cooper in the crowd. Who truly killed Eddard Stark, do you think? Joffrey, who gave the command? Ser Ilyn Payne, who swung the sword? Or… another?”
 

Tyrion cocked his head sideways. “Did you mean to answer your damned riddle, or only to make my head ache worse?”

Varys smiled. “Here, then. Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.”
 

Maybe, just maybe,  technically being a Blackfyre through the male line doesn't matter in the least to Varys or Illyrio, but rather for the exiled Targaryen's to win the throne, what combination of Bittersteel/Brightflame/Blackfyre union.

I don't believe Varys will reveal any true heritage to Aegon so quickly, in the early draft of ADwD we have an argument between Illyrio and Haldon as well in which Illyrio angrily states there are 'things he must know'.

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know. Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, drago"

Haldon overrules him (which is interesting in its own right) and my guess is Varys would do the same.

So my feeling is Illyrio's prideful feelings about his heritage is something that could ultimately be part of their undoing. Varys strikes me as being the sort of person who would be more than satisfied knowing he fooled the realm with his mummer's dragon and have Aegon reign for years and reach adulthood before revealing the truth to him. He knows all to well how dangerous secrets can be.

[Duranaparthur]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Daemon and Aegor and all their children and grandchildren were attainted traitors, were they not? Not to mention that they were all just legitimized bastards, anyway.

In exile whatever Blackfyre relations there were sunk down to the level of bravos (Illyrio) and slaves (Varys, if he is one). They are nothing but commoners with some king among their distant ancestors.

Excellent point; the crux of the matter with Aegon is that he's "the mummer's dragon," and regardless of whether his blood's black, red, or Lyseni, the only way for him to be noble or royal is the old fashioned manner of appealing to force and politics. Having said that, it really doesn't matter what Aegon's true parentage's standing may be, whether as an attained traitor's spawn or royal prince. Westeros is in the kind of chaos where all the rules are out the window, and what matters is where people think power resides, and since Aegon has the services of the Golden Company and a growing number of Stormlords, he's just as much of a lord as anyone else who can field similar numbers. His ancestry may matter to Illyrio if he is in fact the boy's father (which I believe is the most organic motivation for the merchant's patronage), and it and a possible piece of steel may be the key to securing the Golden Company's initial support, but as long as the bulk of Westeros winds up convinced he's actually a Targaryen alternative to what's left of the Baratheons, it means nothing.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Just because one is attainted, doesn't mean his children are commoners, does it?

It does. Attainder means you lose all your lands, titles, possessions, etc. because of your treason. You made common, basically, because the only difference between a commoner and a nobleman is that they have lands, titles, possessions, and so forth.

We see this best with Stannis and Shireen who are nothing from the point of view of the Lannisters. And historically there is the example of the Heddles Black Tom is a nobleman, husband to Lord Butterwell's eldest daughter and possibly a landed knight in his own right. But Masha Heddle is just an inn keep with a name.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And isn't Alayne--daughter of Lord Petyr of House Baelish and a gentlewoman of Braavos, daughter of a merchant prince--said to be gently born?

Noble bastards usually are not considered to be baseborn. But that does not extend to their children.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Is a bravo who earns a living selling his sword, by definition a commoner?

Illyrio seems to be. The way he describes himself he had nothing remarkable about himself when he teamed up with Varys and he was a poor guy. The fact that his partnership with Varys made him respectable enough to become a magister and marry the cousin of the Prince of Pentos supports that. If Illyrio had been an impoverished Pentoshi nobleman he would have said Varys helped him to reclaim his birthright or something of that sort but he does not.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And we don't know that Varys was born a slave. 

Pycelle claims he was in AGoT and there is as of yet no hint that he was lying there or even misinformed. Varys' own account confirms that he was a slave in his childhood.

1 hour ago, OuttaOldtown said:

Maybe, just maybe,  technically being a Blackfyre through the male line doesn't matter in the least to Varys or Illyrio, but rather for the exiled Targaryen's to win the throne, what combination of Bittersteel/Brightflame/Blackfyre union.

That 'Brightfyre idea' makes little sense in light of our information up to this point. We know that Prince Aerion played a crucial role for House Targaryen during the Third Blackfyre Rebellion in 219 AC. Some people even suggested he might have been the one who killed Haegon Blackfyre. In light of that it is very unlikely that any child or descendant of Aerion's would have made common cause with the Blackfyres or them with Targaryens of his line.

1 hour ago, OuttaOldtown said:

I don't believe Varys will reveal any true heritage to Aegon so quickly, in the early draft of ADwD we have an argument between Illyrio and Haldon as well in which Illyrio angrily states there are 'things he must know'.

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know. Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, drago"

Haldon overrules him (which is interesting in its own right) and my guess is Varys would do the same.

I very much doubt those early versions of the chapter referred to information about Aegon's true heritage (if he is Illyrio's son). Especially no insofar as Griff is concerned. They were talking about the contents of the chests and Connington and Aegon both have more than enough time to inspect them on their own.

The idea that either Varys or Illyrio would want to real the truth about Aegon's heritage makes little sense. Illyrio might intend to eventually tell the truth to Aegon, but that is a completely different matter. The truth must never reach the public or the nobles because the Targaryen loyalists in Westeros (especially the Martells) would never follow or quickly abandon Aegon if they realized he was fake and some fat dude's son.

Such a prince might not even be enough for whatever Blackfyre loyalists there still are in Westeros. It is one thing to be Daemon Blackfyre's son through the male line and another to be the last scion of that line through a bunch of (impoverished) obscure daughters. Even the Golden Company prefers the idea to fight for an exiled Targaryen prince rather than an obscure Blackfyre descendant whose father is a cheese monger and his mother was a whore.

To speak in terms of the riddle: Power most definitely does not reside with the Blackfyres. And even the Golden Company do not believe power resides with some fat man's son. 

1 hour ago, OuttaOldtown said:

So my feeling is Illyrio's prideful feelings about his heritage is something that could ultimately be part of their undoing. Varys strikes me as being the sort of person who would be more than satisfied knowing he fooled the realm with his mummer's dragon and have Aegon reign for years and reach adulthood before revealing the truth to him. He knows all to well how dangerous secrets can be.

The truth coming out certainly will make for interesting storytelling. We'll have to wait and see whether Dany's people first bring it up (via information given to them by the Tattered Prince) or whether it will enter the story via Varys and Illyrio quietly talking to Aegon after his coronation.

38 minutes ago, Duranaparthur said:

Excellent point; the crux of the matter with Aegon is that he's "the mummer's dragon," and regardless of whether his blood's black, red, or Lyseni, the only way for him to be noble or royal is the old fashioned manner of appealing to force and politics. Having said that, it really doesn't matter what Aegon's true parentage's standing may be, whether as an attained traitor's spawn or royal prince. Westeros is in the kind of chaos where all the rules are out the window, and what matters is where people think power resides, and since Aegon has the services of the Golden Company and a growing number of Stormlords, he's just as much of a lord as anyone else who can field similar numbers. His ancestry may matter to Illyrio if he is in fact the boy's father (which I believe is the most organic motivation for the merchant's patronage), and it and a possible piece of steel may be the key to securing the Golden Company's initial support, but as long as the bulk of Westeros winds up convinced he's actually a Targaryen alternative to what's left of the Baratheons, it means nothing.

If we talk in terms of Varys' riddle then it is clear that only Rhaegar's son is considered to be a man people might believe power resides with. Some distant Blackfyre descendant is not. If it were, then Aegon 'Blackfyre' would invade Westeros, not Rhaegar's son.

And that is my whole point in regards to the 'Blackfyre revenge plan'. Aegon's success means a Targaryen restoration. Daemon I, Daemon II, Haegon, Aenys, Daemon III, and Maelys all remain nothing but accursed traitors and failed pretenders. Revenge and payback means nothing if it is not publicly acknowledged. Just as the true heritage of a person does not matter if he or she rules under a different name.

[OuttaOldtown]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That 'Brightfyre idea' makes little sense in light of our information up to this point. We know that Prince Aerion played a crucial role for House Targaryen during the Third Blackfyre Rebellion in 219 AC. Some people even suggested he might have been the one who killed Haegon Blackfyre. In light of that it is very unlikely that any child or descendant of Aerion's would have made common cause with the Blackfyres or them with Targaryens of his line.

I very much doubt those early versions of the chapter referred to information about Aegon's true heritage (if he is Illyrio's son). Especially no insofar as Griff is concerned. They were talking about the contents of the chests and Connington and Aegon both have more than enough time to inspect them on their own.

The idea that either Varys or Illyrio would want to real the truth about Aegon's heritage makes little sense. Illyrio might intend to eventually tell the truth to Aegon, but that is a completely different matter. The truth must never reach the public or the nobles because the Targaryen loyalists in Westeros (especially the Martells) would never follow or quickly abandon Aegon if they realized he was fake and some fat dude's son.

Such a prince might not even be enough for whatever Blackfyre loyalists there still are in Westeros. It is one thing to be Daemon Blackfyre's son through the male line and another to be the last scion of that line through a bunch of (impoverished) obscure daughters. Even the Golden Company prefers the idea to fight for an exiled Targaryen prince rather than an obscure Blackfyre descendant whose father is a cheese monger and his mother was a whore.

To speak in terms of the riddle: Power most definitely does not reside with the Blackfyres. And even the Golden Company do not believe power resides with some fat man's son. 

The truth coming out certainly will make for interesting storytelling. We'll have to wait and see whether Dany's people first bring it up (via information given to them by the Tattered Prince) or whether it will enter the story via Varys and Illyrio quietly talking to Aegon after his coronation.

If we talk in terms of Varys' riddle then it is clear that only Rhaegar's son is considered to be a man people might believe power resides with. Some distant Blackfyre descendant is not. If it were, then Aegon 'Blackfyre' would invade Westeros, not Rhaegar's son.

And that is my whole point in regards to the 'Blackfyre revenge plan'. Aegon's success means a Targaryen restoration. Daemon I, Daemon II, Haegon, Aenys, Daemon III, and Maelys all remain nothing but accursed traitors and failed pretenders. Revenge and payback means nothing if it is not publicly acknowledged. Just as the true heritage of a person does not matter if he or she rules under a different name.

I'm not ruling out or saying with any conviction that there is a Brightfire connection, only that its possible, my point is this may have more to do with exiled Targs scheming to regain power in the name of a long dead child, not to declare victory for the Blackfyre cause which even feels dead to The GC. I'm not so sure I agree with you revenge and payback means nothing if the public aren't aware and I also think the 'power riddle' is saying that people believe what they're told is true if they wish to believe it, if they want to believe Aegon is the son of Rhaegar they will believe it and the power will be his/theirs. Other than that I don't really disagree with you on many of of your previous points..

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Pycelle claims he was in AGoT and there is as of yet no hint that he was lying there or even misinformed. Varys' own account confirms that he was a slave in his childhood.

Pycelle advised Eddard that Varys was born a slave in Lys...

 

Quote

"The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know?

Eddard V, Game

 

But in Tyrion X, Clash we get a different version of Varys's origins from Varys himself...

 

Quote

"My lord, you once asked me how it was that I was cut."

 

"I recall," said Tyrion. "You did not want to talk of it."

 

"Nor do I, but . . . " This pause was longer than the one before, and when Varys spoke again his voice was different somehow. "I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

 

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke.

 

"The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, and when I was older I learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse."

Tyrion X, Clash

Was Varys a slave sold to a traveling folly or an orphan apprenticed to a traveling folly? Either the mummers paid to take him or they were paid to take him.