The Blackfyre

[Lost Melnibonean]

Hi, a few of things:
 
I agree that it would be very odd if the Blackfyre Rebellions didnt have a strong bearing on the story, given it has been so central to the D&E prequels, but personally I dont think that in and of itself necessarily lends very much weight to the theory that Aegon is a secret Blackfyre. Its certainly going to be important in my view, given that Bloodraven has appeared Beyond the Wall, and the increasing references from Maester Aemon (which started in GOT) to Egg and the events of the prequels. Thats not to dismiss the theory at all, its well thought out and certainly plausible, but the Blackfyre Rebellion may be significant in another way that relates to the events at Summerhall, the Prince that was Promised, Bloodravens mysticism and so forth. It seems to me that the prequels are certainly leading somewhere (given apparently D&E end up meeting a bunch of Starks in the next book), and its quite clear that the events at Summerhall are central to the overall themes of the series. In fact its probably the case that the Blackfyre component is just one part of a wider backstory that the prequels are providing.
 
A small point the existence of a well detailed backstory does not, as a rule, inevitably lead to a huge significance later on. One of the most detailed backstories is that of the Castermeres and Tarbecks. While I wouldnt be surprised if GRRM later brings this to the fore and makes it more significant, I have seen no evidence for that being the case yet.  
 
The reason that this is an interesting theory for me is that it links three things together 1) The increased importance of the Blackfyres both through the prequels and increased references in the later books, 2) the foreshadowing of Blackfyre involvement through the  Illyrio and Tyrion chapters (and some rather convincing interpretations of what Illyrio says and how he is described as behaving), 3) the strong clues that Aegon is a fake Targ. This makes the theory a strong one, but not convincing overall. What people have done, quite rightly, is put together a plausible theory based on the information they have by connecting some dots, but there are a lot of gaps that need filling, the most important one being why a Blackfyre plot required the huge amount of energy put in to advance a Targaryen claimants interests, well ahead of the Blackfyre claimants (constant attempts to get Viserys/Dany an army, giving Dany dragon eggs (wheres Aegons egg/s? they had at least three).
In short, intrigued by this theory but not yet convinced.
 
On a side note the questions raised by the GCs motivations are valid as well. It appears that, over the years, the GC has not just become a haven for Blackfyre supporters but any number of exiles and rebels who have fled Westros. I think, as has been said before, the idea of going home, retrieving lands/titles, taking revenge on those who cast them down; might end up being a stronger motivation than a Blackfyre victory. For some, who will all now be descendants of Blackfyre supporters rather than original supporters themselves ofc, that may still be a real motivation, but for others less so.
 
 
 

I'm not sure what your point is, it sounds like you're saying the Blackfyre theory is a good one but you're not buying it. Most of the reasons you raise have been addressed in the OPs or upthread so I'm not going to rehash them.

But the idea about Castamere and Tarbeck is interesting. First, I would submit that backstory is extremely minor compared to the Dance of the Dragons and the Blackfyre Rebellions. Given that point, we can see that the Castamere and Tarbeck themes have been played out, although we will probably continue to see echoes, captured very nicely in the dialogue between Jaime and Hoster Blackwood. If you want to rid future generations of a conflict between two houses, the only way to guarantee it is to destroy the other house completely. But even here were see traces of the Blackfyre. Jaime assumes that Rhaegar's line was completely wiped out, and he regrets failing his princes's family. He's being set up to back Aegon.

[Lost Melnibonean]

"We came to raise up a king and queen who would lead us home to Westeros, ..."

The Lost Lord, Dance 24

"In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death's-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her."

Tyrion I, Dance 1

[Lord Varys]

I'm actually okay with the Blackfyre theory more or less, however I doubt that this is the endgame of the plan. Varys and Illyrio are not one-dimensional enough to be about revenge or payback, especially not against their Targaryen cousins who happen to have left everything, too. If revenge was a part of the game, Viserys and Dany had been killed years ago, long before the Aegon plan was beyond gestation phase, and while Drogo was still a young khalakka far from the glory that would eventually make him the best candidate for the Daenerys marriage plan.

 

Viserys and Daenerys aren't really necessary if your basic plan is to seat Aegon VI Targaryen on the Iron Throne. You have a Targaryen pretender, you have the Golden Company, and you can buy a Dothraki khal a different way.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'm actually okay with the Blackfyre theory more or less, however I doubt that this is the endgame of the plan. Varys and Illyrio are not one-dimensional enough to be about revenge or payback, especially not against their Targaryen cousins who happen to have left everything, too. If revenge was a part of the game, Viserys and Dany had been killed years ago, long before the Aegon plan was beyond gestation phase, and while Drogo was still a young khalakka far from the glory that would eventually make him the best candidate for the Daenerys marriage plan.
 
Viserys and Daenerys aren't really necessary if your basic plan is to seat Aegon VI Targaryen on the Iron Throne. You have a Targaryen pretender, you have the Golden Company, and you can buy a Dothraki khal a different way.

Oh, I expect revenge does have a bit to do with it...

The fat man peeled another egg. "I am fond of coins. Is there any sound as sweet as the clink of gold on gold?"

A sister' s screams. ...

Beneath the gold, the bitter steel.

Tyrion II, Dance 5

"That's how it always happens, my father says. So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it."

Jaime, Dance 48

[J. Stargaryen]

The Brightfyre theory is literally just a guy reaching for anything and everything. It's beyond convoluted.

 

Just getting caught up here. The Brightfyre theory wasn't just one person's work. There were a few of us who made contributions to that OP.

 

The anti-Blackfyre crew always cracks me up because they're so adamant that there's no evidence for fAegon. Yet, it's one of the most popular, well-accepted theories in the fandom. Strange, that.

[Tyrell_like_Squirrel]

Wonderful OP, well written, well thought out, well constructed.

 

I think it's pretty obvious after examining the evidence that Aegon is a Blackfyre. Why build them up unless they're going to have an impact?

 

For those that don't believe he's a black dragon, I will say this; It would be such a wonderful twist if Dany showed up believing that Aegon was a Blackfyre, defeated and killed him in a second dance of the dragons, only to discover he was actually who he said he was. Or if it was never definitively proved and Dany lives on, wondering whether she killed her own nephew.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

 

Just getting caught up here. The Brightfyre theory wasn't just one person's work. There were a few of us who made contributions to that OP.

 

The anti-Blackfyre crew always cracks me up because they're so adamant that there's no evidence for fAegon. Yet, it's one of the most popular, well-accepted theories in the fandom. Strange, that.

It runs about 60% for and 40% against, with people like me being an infinitessimally small neutral cause really it could go either way and we'd be fine with it.  Compared to something like R+L=J which is more like 99% of the fandom, it doesn't look all that popular or well-accepted.

 

Granted, most theories don't get as far as 50% acceptance, so 60 is still a very strong number in that respect.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Wonderful OP, well written, well thought out, well constructed.

 

I think it's pretty obvious after examining the evidence that Aegon is a Blackfyre. Why build them up unless they're going to have an impact?

 

For those that don't believe he's a black dragon, I will say this; It would be such a wonderful twist if Dany showed up believing that Aegon was a Blackfyre, defeated and killed him in a second dance of the dragons, only to discover he was actually who he said he was. Or if it was never definitively proved and Dany lives on, wondering whether she killed her own nephew.

:agree:  with the bolded.

 

By the way...been combing through SSM's looking for a particular bit about dragonbonding, and I read something last night about the George saying the second Dance doesn't necessarily have anything to do with Dany's invading Westeros.  Food for thought.

[purple-eyes]

Wonderful OP, well written, well thought out, well constructed.

 

I think it's pretty obvious after examining the evidence that Aegon is a Blackfyre. Why build them up unless they're going to have an impact?

 

For those that don't believe he's a black dragon, I will say this; It would be such a wonderful twist if Dany showed up believing that Aegon was a Blackfyre, defeated and killed him in a second dance of the dragons, only to discover he was actually who he said he was. Or if it was never definitively proved and Dany lives on, wondering whether she killed her own nephew.

 

Will this make her a kinslayer?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

 

Will this make her a kinslayer?

Yes but if he's a Blackfyre it won't be as bad.  According to GRRM, the worst kinslaying is parent-child/child-parent, followed by sibling-sibling, and everybody else is a lesser degree.  He said Rickard Karstark was really stretching it with his claim.  

 

The Blackfyres are so far removed from the main line now that it would hardly be kinslaying at all.

[purple-eyes]

Yes but if he's a Blackfyre it won't be as bad.  According to GRRM, the worst kinslaying is parent-child/child-parent, followed by sibling-sibling, and everybody else is a lesser degree.  He said Rickard Karstark was really stretching it with his claim.  

 

The Blackfyres are so far removed from the main line now that it would hardly be kinslaying at all.

 

Talking about this, Bloodraven killed his half-brother and two nephews, is he a kinslayer in this case?

[Lord Varys]

LB,

 

considering George's humor the 'Second Dance' could turn out to be nothing but another 'mating dance' between two dragons like the one between Tessarion and Seasmoke during the Dance.

 

But I really think we are getting some Targaryen civil there in light of the fact of Teora's dreams - on the other hand, that could actually only refer to failed attempts of people trying to claim Dany's dragons. Quentyn tried to dance with dragons, too, and he died.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

^^^ yeah that's what I think as well. Dareon always dreamt of the animal dragon representing a person, So Teora is most likely doing the same thing.  Dragons dancing probably refers to the 6th Blackfyre rebellion, fAegon Blackfyre and the GC vs. Dany and the dothraki/unsullied.  And ya know, that is the best way to do it because then less Westeros civilians would die, it would be mostly sellswords and dothraki dying.  I think Westeros has had a hard enough time just dealing with the Lannisters and of course, Winter is Coming.

[J. Stargaryen]

It runs about 60% for and 40% against, with people like me being an infinitessimally small neutral cause really it could go either way and we'd be fine with it.  Compared to something like R+L=J which is more like 99% of the fandom, it doesn't look all that popular or well-accepted.

 

Granted, most theories don't get as far as 50% acceptance, so 60 is still a very strong number in that respect.

 

Exactly.

[Resonant Frequency]

There's also a theory that Dany and Viserys were supposed to invade with the Dothraki, causing utter destruction and then Aegon would come in and save the day.  So there's that.

That might be one of the most inept theories floating around, and another example of people doing mental gymnastics in order to explain the contradictory nature of varys and illyrio's "master plan".

Picture if you will:
Viserys and daenerys storm the seven kingdoms and take them by force, leaving death and destruction in their wake (as per this theory), when lo and behold, here comes their nephew to save the day?
Yeah...I'm sure all the peoples of westeros would be clamoring for another targaryen after being scoured by this supposed saviour's aunt and uncle. Give me a break.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

That might be one of the most inept theories floating around, and another example of people doing mental gymnastics in order to explain the contradictory nature of varys and illyrio's "master plan".

Picture if you will:
Viserys and daenerys storm the seven kingdoms and take them by force, leaving death and destruction in their wake (as per this theory), when lo and behold, here comes their nephew to save the day?
Yeah...I'm sure all the peoples of westeros would be clamoring for another targaryen after being scoured by this supposed saviour's aunt and uncle. Give me a break.

Aegon has the advantage of being the son of Saint Rhaegar the King Who Never Was But Should Have Been.  As opposed to the son/daughter of King Pyro.

 

If he managed to kick Viserys and Dany out, he'd be the hero.  

 

So you see it could actually have worked.  

 

But it wouldn't need to have been something that would work for it to have been the plan.

[Isobel Harper]

 

Talking about this, Bloodraven killed his half-brother and two nephews, is he a kinslayer in this case?

 

He's accused of being a kin-slayer throughout the D&E series; it appears so.

[purple-eyes]

 
He's accused of being a kin-slayer throughout the D&E series; it appears so.

Then a lot of targs are kinslayers too due to dance of dragons. I have thought battle did not count.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Then a lot of targs are kinslayers too due to dance of dragons. I have thought battle did not count.

If the whole kinslaying thing were based on logic instead of superstition that would be the case.  Maekar didn't mean to kill his brother Baelor either but got saddled with being called a kinslayer for the rest of his life.

[Lord Varys]

You are a kinslayer if you kill half-siblings and nephews. Aemond and Aegon II both are kinslayers. Robert and Rhaegar's kinship (second cousins) seems to be too distant, though, to warrant that. Besides, they died in battle in an honest fight, apparently, whereas Luke and Rhaenyra were both clearly murdered.