The Blackfyre

[Lord Varys]

What I heard about Arianne 2 makes it exceedingly unlikely that the Golden Company will ever strike a deal or make an alliance with Daenerys. So no dragon for Aegon, unless we get some successful dragonstealing operation.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 9/11/2015 at 0:31 PM, Lord Varys said:

What I heard about Arianne 2 makes it exceedingly unlikely that the Golden Company will ever strike a deal or make an alliance with Daenerys. So no dragon for Aegon, unless we get some successful dragonstealing operation.

Or maybe Daenerys will come to rescue Aegon in his moment of peril as Tyrion foretold, and Aegon will claim Rhaegal. Then maybe Jon Connington will attempt to push the two "Targaryens" together but then that's when the Blackfyre will be revealed and the real dancing will start. 

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Or maybe Daenerys will come to rescue Aegon in his moment of peril as Tyrion foretold, and Aegon will claim Rhaegal. Then maybe Jon Connington will attempt to push the two "Targaryens" together but then that's when the Blackfyre will be revealed and the real dancing will start. 

Well, if that's the case then 'the Blackfyre thing' won't be an issue at all. Connington will feel betrayed, of course, but if Dany saves Aegon he'll be at her mercy and forced to accept playing the second fiddle as her Prince Consort.

If there will be a Dance between Aegon and Dany - which really is by no means clear at this point, I expect Euron to play an important role as a pretender in that war, too, and Littlefinger and Sansa may not restrict themselves to the roles of 'kingmakers' but might go after the throne themselves, too - I think it will a gradual process, long being set up before Dany even arrives at Westeros.

And it will be, of course, Aegon and his people who will cut out Daenerys out of the equation, not the other way around. We already have most of the pieces:

Arianne's mistrust of Daenerys. Arianne's reluctance to see Quentyn as her king. Aegon's own ambition to prove himself and show the world what he is capable of.

If the campaign wins him the throne very quickly, Aegon VI Targaryen will have to consolidate his power and make alliances. Enter the news about Daenerys Targaryen's marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq and alleged death in Daznak's Pit, effectively ending any belief in the Quentyn plan. Arianne and Doran will both begin to fear for Quentyn. That will end the policy of waiting for her as a potential bride for Aegon. The new king needs heirs of his own body. Enter Arianne Martell as Aegon's wife and queen. Then comes the news - perhaps much delayed and twisted - about Quentyn's demise, resulting in the Martells getting very wroth about Daenerys Targaryen. The news that she is finally coming to Westeros, possibly with a huge army of Dothraki and/or in an alliance with the Ironborn won't cause anyone in Dorne or the rest of Westeros to cheer her (unless we assume the Others are already south of the Neck by that point).

Hostilities between Dany and Aegon might not begin with the whole Blackfyre issue and/or when she finally arrives in Westeros. As soon as Aegon has won the Iron Throne Daenerys becomes a potential enemy rather than an asset to Varys and Illyrio, and they may decided to take her out of the equation long before she even reaches Westeros.

Enter Strong Belwas as Illyrio's dagger at Dany's throat. People usually think that guy is just a funny sidekick but whoever believes that Illyrio would send just some funny guy to Dany is greatly mistaken. There must be a reason why he has survived the poisoning attempt, and him trying to kill Daenerys - and possibly severely injuring her in the process - could be part of that reason.

Something like that would make Dany really wroth, and finally sever her relationship to Illyrio. The same would go if Varys and Illyrio send some other assassin after her, of course, and Dany realized that they were behind it.

The Blackfyre thing most likely won't figure all that much into all that, really. The Blackfyres are dead and forgotten. Dany has no issues with them, and if she could just win the throne by marrying the impostor Aegon, she would do so. She has the big dragon, after all, and Aegon has on his own little reason to oppose Daenerys unless he is already married to somebody else and surrounded by people who do not want Dany to share in his power.

The chances that Aegon ever claims one of Dany's dragons are still very low, though. Dany has Drogon already, and with Brown Ben and Tyrion there are two potential dragonriders with Targaryen blood in Meereen. Not to mention Victarion/Euron or even Moqorro if Dragonbinder works to their advantage.

Granted, dragonriders can die and other people can claim riderless dragons, but the arrival of Dany and the dragons in Westeros should be the beginning of Aegon's quick and ignominious end. If George wanted him to become a dragonrider some agents of Varys and Illyrio most likely would have shown up in Meereen during ADwD and successfully stolen a dragon so that Aegon can spend some time on its back. If Aegon only becomes a dragonrider by the time Dany arrives, he'll most likely not remain a dragonrider for a very long time.

The only other option I can see is that Aegon becomes the rider of one of the dragons who were presumed dead, most likely the Cannibal (who would still be on Dragonstone if he is alive). But even I don't think that's very likely. It is much more likely he is just going to die without ever riding a dragon. After all, he did not keep his dragon close, and he is going to pay for that.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if that's the case then 'the Blackfyre thing' won't be an issue at all. Connington will feel betrayed, of course, but if Dany saves Aegon he'll be at her mercy and forced to accept playing the second fiddle as her Prince Consort.

If there will be a Dance between Aegon and Dany - which really is by no means clear at this point, I expect Euron to play an important role as a pretender in that war, too, and Littlefinger and Sansa may not restrict themselves to the roles of 'kingmakers' but might go after the throne themselves, too - I think it will a gradual process, long being set up before Dany even arrives at Westeros.

And it will be, of course, Aegon and his people who will cut out Daenerys out of the equation, not the other way around. We already have most of the pieces:

Arianne's mistrust of Daenerys. Arianne's reluctance to see Quentyn as her king. Aegon's own ambition to prove himself and show the world what he is capable of.

If the campaign wins him the throne very quickly, Aegon VI Targaryen will have to consolidate his power and make alliances. Enter the news about Daenerys Targaryen's marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq and alleged death in Daznak's Pit, effectively ending any belief in the Quentyn plan. Arianne and Doran will both begin to fear for Quentyn. That will end the policy of waiting for her as a potential bride for Aegon. The new king needs heirs of his own body. Enter Arianne Martell as Aegon's wife and queen. Then comes the news - perhaps much delayed and twisted - about Quentyn's demise, resulting in the Martells getting very wroth about Daenerys Targaryen. The news that she is finally coming to Westeros, possibly with a huge army of Dothraki and/or in an alliance with the Ironborn won't cause anyone in Dorne or the rest of Westeros to cheer her (unless we assume the Others are already south of the Neck by that point).

Hostilities between Dany and Aegon might not begin with the whole Blackfyre issue and/or when she finally arrives in Westeros. As soon as Aegon has won the Iron Throne Daenerys becomes a potential enemy rather than an asset to Varys and Illyrio, and they may decided to take her out of the equation long before she even reaches Westeros.

Enter Strong Belwas as Illyrio's dagger at Dany's throat. People usually think that guy is just a funny sidekick but whoever believes that Illyrio would send just some funny guy to Dany is greatly mistaken. There must be a reason why he has survived the poisoning attempt, and him trying to kill Daenerys - and possibly severely injuring her in the process - could be part of that reason.

Something like that would make Dany really wroth, and finally sever her relationship to Illyrio. The same would go if Varys and Illyrio send some other assassin after her, of course, and Dany realized that they were behind it.

The Blackfyre thing most likely won't figure all that much into all that, really. The Blackfyres are dead and forgotten. Dany has no issues with them, and if she could just win the throne by marrying the impostor Aegon, she would do so. She has the big dragon, after all, and Aegon has on his own little reason to oppose Daenerys unless he is already married to somebody else and surrounded by people who do not want Dany to share in his power.

The chances that Aegon ever claims one of Dany's dragons are still very low, though. Dany has Drogon already, and with Brown Ben and Tyrion there are two potential dragonriders with Targaryen blood in Meereen. Not to mention Victarion/Euron or even Moqorro if Dragonbinder works to their advantage.

Granted, dragonriders can die and other people can claim riderless dragons, but the arrival of Dany and the dragons in Westeros should be the beginning of Aegon's quick and ignominious end. If George wanted him to become a dragonrider some agents of Varys and Illyrio most likely would have shown up in Meereen during ADwD and successfully stolen a dragon so that Aegon can spend some time on its back. If Aegon only becomes a dragonrider by the time Dany arrives, he'll most likely not remain a dragonrider for a very long time.

The only other option I can see is that Aegon becomes the rider of one of the dragons who were presumed dead, most likely the Cannibal (who would still be on Dragonstone if he is alive). But even I don't think that's very likely. It is much more likely he is just going to die without ever riding a dragon. After all, he did not keep his dragon close, and he is going to pay for that.

I do like what you suggested about Aegon and Arianne possibly setting a trap for Daenerys. I think Aegon will betray Daenerys for love and that would fit nicely. 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I do like what you suggested about Aegon and Arianne possibly setting a trap for Daenerys. I think Aegon will betray Daenerys for love and that would fit nicely. 

Well, he would betray her in a weird way then, having never even met her. Not sure if that's going to count as a betrayal. On Dany's side her taking another consort like Victarion, Tyrion, Jhaqo, Daario, whoever she ends up with if she doesn't drag Hizdahr with her to Westeros, could certainly also complicate things.

But then, Tyrion will most likely tell Dany about Aegon, and he as part of team Dany he would have no interest to actually cause or fuel a conflict between Dany and Aegon as he would be in the midst of all that upon their arrival in Westeros.

We still don't know what he believes to be true about Aegon, but the smart idea would not create doubts in her head that Aegon is a Blackfyre or fake but rather truly her nephew, so that at least from their side, Dany's side, the chance of an alliance and subsequent union would still be a possibility. Tyrion will be very aware of the fact that both he and Dany will have many enemies in Westeros, and they may actually have consolidated their power in his absence.

Adding Aegon and the Golden Company to their enemies before they even reach Westeros would be a stupid move.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, he would betray her in a weird way then, having never even met her. Not sure if that's going to count as a betrayal. On Dany's side her taking another consort like Victarion, Tyrion, Jhaqo, Daario, whoever she ends up with if she doesn't drag Hizdahr with her to Westeros, could certainly also complicate things.

But then, Tyrion will most likely tell Dany about Aegon, and he as part of team Dany he would have no interest to actually cause or fuel a conflict between Dany and Aegon as he would be in the midst of all that upon their arrival in Westeros.

We still don't know what he believes to be true about Aegon, but the smart idea would not create doubts in her head that Aegon is a Blackfyre or fake but rather truly her nephew, so that at least from their side, Dany's side, the chance of an alliance and subsequent union would still be a possibility. Tyrion will be very aware of the fact that both he and Dany will have many enemies in Westeros, and they may actually have consolidated their power in his absence.

Adding Aegon and the Golden Company to their enemies before they even reach Westeros would be a stupid move.

Perfect choice of words there

[Ser Few of the Fingers]

I just want to sho off my signature in this incredible thread. Thanks OP

[Isobel Harper]

On ‎2‎/‎4‎/‎2016 at 8:09 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Or maybe Daenerys will come to rescue Aegon in his moment of peril as Tyrion foretold, and Aegon will claim Rhaegal. Then maybe Jon Connington will attempt to push the two "Targaryens" together but then that's when the Blackfyre will be revealed and the real dancing will start. 

One issue I have with the (potential) Blackfyre reveal:

We are meant to see all sides band together, in some way, against The Others.  If Aegon is indeed a Blackfyre, we will see Aegon and Daenerys band together, not "dance" again.  Daenerys defeating "Aegon Blackfyre" would just be a regurgitation of the Blackfyre Rebellions in the past, which I don't see GRRM doing. 

So either 1. Aegon is a Blackfyre, but will team up with Daenerys in some way or 2. Aegon is a Targaryen, but is not believed to be who he says he is***, especially not by Daenerys.  I personally believe the latter, and Daenerys' new "dragons plant no trees" attitude will bite her in the ass: she'll kill her own nephew, become a kinslayer, and kill one of the "heads of the dragon" necessary to fight against The Others.

***WoW Spoiler

Spoiler

Even Arianne seems doubtful that Aegon is who he says he is.  She seems antagonist of Daenerys in Arianne I, but not so much in Arianne II after meeting with some of the GC.

“We are at least persistent, you must admit. Yet some of those defeats were near things.”

“Or not. And those who die in near things are no less dead than those who die in routs. Prince Doran, my father, is a wise man and fights only wars that he can win. If the tide of war turns against your dragon the Golden Company will no doubt flee back across the Narrow Sea, as it has done before. As Lord Connington himself did after Robert defeated him at the Battle of the Bells. Dorne is no such refuge. Why should we lend our swords and spears to your… uncertain cause?”

“Prince Aegon is of your own blood, Princess. Son of Prince Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne, your father’s sister.”

“Daenerys Targaryen is our blood as well. Daughter of King Aerys, Rhaegar’s sister. And she has dragons.”

(Lysono Maar and Arianne Martell in Arianne II)

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

39 minutes ago, Isobel Harper said:

One issue I have with the (potential) Blackfyre reveal:

We are meant to see all sides band together, in some way, against The Others.  If Aegon is indeed a Blackfyre, we will see Aegon and Daenerys band together, not "dance" again.  Daenerys defeating "Aegon Blackfyre" would just be a regurgitation of the Blackfyre Rebellions in the past, which I don't see GRRM doing. 

So either 1. Aegon is a Blackfyre, but will team up with Daenerys in some way or 2. Aegon is a Targaryen, but is not believed to be who he says he is***, especially not by Daenerys.  I personally believe the latter, and Daenerys' new "dragons plant no trees" attitude will bite her in the ass: she'll kill her own nephew, become a kinslayer, and kill one of the "heads of the dragon" necessary to fight against The Others.

***WoW Spoiler

  Hide contents

Even Arianne seems doubtful that Aegon is who he says he is.  She seems antagonist of Daenerys in Arianne I, but not so much in Arianne II after meeting with some of the GC.

“We are at least persistent, you must admit. Yet some of those defeats were near things.”

“Or not. And those who die in near things are no less dead than those who die in routs. Prince Doran, my father, is a wise man and fights only wars that he can win. If the tide of war turns against your dragon the Golden Company will no doubt flee back across the Narrow Sea, as it has done before. As Lord Connington himself did after Robert defeated him at the Battle of the Bells. Dorne is no such refuge. Why should we lend our swords and spears to your… uncertain cause?”

“Prince Aegon is of your own blood, Princess. Son of Prince Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne, your father’s sister.”

“Daenerys Targaryen is our blood as well. Daughter of King Aerys, Rhaegar’s sister. And she has dragons.”

(Lysono Maar and Arianne Martell in Arianne II)

 

But how will Arianne feel about Daenerys's rejection of her brother and his death? 

Oh, and I think of the three dragons, only the Ice Dragon aka Jon Snow will make it to the end against the others. Daenerys will kill Aegon.  

[Isobel Harper]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But how will Arianne feel about Daenerys's rejection of her brother and his death? 

Oh, and I think of the three dragons, only the Ice Dragon aka Jon Snow will make it to the end against the others. Daenerys will kill Aegon.  

I think Doran and Arianne will be reluctant to support Aegon in the beginning.  News of Quentyn's death will likely change that, but true verification of his death won't reach Westeros until mid-Winds or so, long after Tyrell troops reach Storm's End.

I have a few ideas of how Arianne's interaction with Aegon might go.  Here's a thread in the Winds of Winter subforum which gives me one idea of how it might go:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/104129-twow-spoilers-elia-sand-will-be-the-one-to-commit-dorne-to-aegon%E2%80%99s-cause-long-read/

Spoiler

Elia, despite being in the presence of multiple (hot ) knights, is seducing Feathers, a servant who is described as having feathers and bird-droppings on him.  Odd, no?  Well, she intends to get her hands on letters, either reading them or sending them or both.  I believe that Elia Sand will fall in love with Aegon, ask Doran to go to WAR in a letter forging Arianne's signature.  Unbeknownst to Elia, WAR doesn't mean SUPPORT.  WAR means WAIT... and she completely screws Aegon out of Martell support. 

 

[Isobel Harper]

An idea came to me recently, and I figured it'd be best to share it in a Blackfyre thread.

Could Mellario of Norvos be a Blackfyre descendant?

When Arianne is imprisoned in AFfC, Doran leaves her certain books to read.  One of those books is one concerning Dornish Law.  One of the most prominent laws that we know concerning the Dornish is equal primogeniture.  Under equal primogeniture, Daena the Defiant should have inherited the throne, not Aegon IV.  Daemon was her only son, sired by Aegon AND legitimized. 

Who has Doran been allying with, and even sent his on son to foster?  House Yronwood, one of the biggest Blackfyre supporters.

Doran also leaves books concerning religion (The Seven Pointed Star and Lives of the High Septons).  In the Mystery Knight, we find that the Religion of the Seven is no longer so prejudiced against a bastard on the throne:

He remembered then. He was a holy man sworn to the Seven, even if he did preach treason.

"His hands are scarlet with a brother's blood, and the blood of his young nephews too," the hunchback had declared to the crowd that had gathered in the market square. "A shadow came at his command to strangle brave Prince Valarr's sons in their mother's womb. Where is our Young Prince now? Where is his brother, sweet Matarys? Where has Good King Daeron gone, and fearless Baelor Breakspear? The grave has claimed them, every one, yet he endures, this pale bird with bloody beak who perches on King Aerys's shoulder and caws into his ear. The mark of hell is on his face and in his empty eye, and he has brought us drought and pestilence and murder. Rise up, I say, and remember our true king across the water. Seven gods there are, and seven kingdoms, and the Black Dragon sired seven sons! Rise up, my lords and ladies. Rise up, you brave knights and sturdy yeomen, and cast down Bloodraven, that foul sorcerer, lest your children and your children's children be cursed forever-more." Every word was treason. Even so, it was a shock to see him here, with holes where his eyes had been.

If Mellario is a Blackfyre descendant, Doran's children could inherit the throne under Dornish Law. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

On Thursday, 19 March 2015 at 5:59 AM, King Viserys Targaryen IV said:

The same way I think he is doing with Rickon.

Wait, what's he doing with Rickon?

On Monday, 23 March 2015 at 9:33 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

On Monday, 23 March 2015 at 9:00 PM, Taemlyn Blackfyre said:

LM, first off, bloody marvellous thread.

 

But in your objectivity, you do not draw any solid conclusions. Are you suggesting Illyrio and the Tyroshi sold off Dany to remove Viserys? I like it because it kinda proves that fAegon is Blackyre descended, even if they plan to marry him to Dany eventually. Something tells me that they are doomed to ultimately fail, while drawing some support from Dorne and the Reach that will convert to Dany when she eventually reaches Westeros in 2022.

Since about my fourth read, I've thought that Illyrio, realizing that the Golden Company and Blackfyre fellow travelers alone have never been able to take the Seven Kingdoms. So he concocted a plan to get Dothraki and Dornish support. Illyrio brokered the marriage of Daenerys to Drogo in exchange for Drogo's support. And by claiming Aegon was the son of Rhaegar and Elia, he could count on raising Dorne and Targaryen loyalists as well. Viserys was expected to remain in Pentos banging Lysene bedslaves, and when the time was right, he would have been given an offer he couldn't refuse, endorse your nephew and take nominal command of these Dothraki or go swimming with the fishes in the Bay of Pentos.

I often wonder whether Illyrio really planned for the Dothraki to actually invade Westeros. If Aegon - fake or not - is intended to take the throne, then having Viserys and/or Danny a continent or more away is ultimately a good idea. A Targaryen/Dothraki alliance makes a good distraction for the Iron Throne. Being so far away, they can easily intercept any threats to Danaerys, and keep her around as a major strategic concern for Westeros, big and scary and occupying all their plans... all the better to let the real threat mature in secret.

I also half-think if Illyrio really wanted to keep Viserys in Pentos, he could have managed it. Just poison him!

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Grody Brody said:

I often wonder whether Illyrio really planned for the Dothraki to actually invade Westeros. If Aegon - fake or not - is intended to take the throne, then having Viserys and/or Danny a continent or more away is ultimately a good idea. A Targaryen/Dothraki alliance makes a good distraction for the Iron Throne. Being so far away, they can easily intercept any threats to Danaerys, and keep her around as a major strategic concern for Westeros, big and scary and occupying all their plans... all the better to let the real threat mature in secret.

I also half-think if Illyrio really wanted to keep Viserys in Pentos, he could have managed it. Just poison him!

Doubting that Varys and Illyrio wanted Drogo to invade Westeros makes no sense. It is obvious in the books that this was the case. Not just in AGoT but also in ADwD.

[Aetta]

On 8/6/2015 at 7:39 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Hi, a few of things:

 

I agree that it would be very odd if the Blackfyre Rebellions didn’t have a strong bearing on the story, given it has been so central to the D&E prequels, but personally I don’t think that in and of itself necessarily lends very much weight to the theory that Aegon is a secret Blackfyre. It’s certainly going to be important in my view, given that Bloodraven has appeared Beyond the Wall, and the increasing references from Maester Aemon (which started in GOT) to Egg and the events of the prequels. That’s not to dismiss the theory at all, it’s well thought out and certainly plausible, but the Blackfyre Rebellion may be significant in another way that relates to the events at Summerhall, the Prince that was Promised, Bloodraven’s mysticism and so forth. It seems to me that the prequels are certainly leading somewhere (given apparently D&E end up meeting a bunch of Starks in the next book), and it’s quite clear that the events at Summerhall are central to the overall themes of the series. In fact it’s probably the case that the Blackfyre component is just one part of a wider backstory that the prequels are providing.

 

Right.

I don't think at this late stage it matters as much as it did in Egg's day...because Dany was born and she hatched dragons.  The stories of the Blackfyre rebellions and Summerhall are a wonderfully fantastical way to expand the story, but the end game remains the same:  It had to be Dany of the union of Aerys and Rhaella to hatch the eggs.  Not Daemon's heirs, nor Egg for that matter.  The BFRs had to fail.  Summerhall had to fail.  So that we would see how important it is that Dany did't fail.  Contrast effect.

I believe there is something to the theories regarding there being certain "genetics" involved in dragon hatching.  And I think Targs may even know this, or knew this in the past (Aerys wanted Rhaegar to marry some pure Valyrian something awful-ask Steffon 'bout how that worked out.  They settled for Elia Martell, who did have some dragon blood, unfortunately there were no legit Baratheon maidens for Rhaegar to have).

We have some canon evidence to suggest dragon hatchers are always female Targs and the ability is passed down through female Targs.  So mights be that Naerys is the important link, regardless of who Daeron's daddy was.  

BR may certainly have known how the descendency had to flow, and thus took an extremely strong position not just against Daemon and Bittersteel, but any and all of their decendants.   There could be no altering the outcome that Aerys should be married to Rhaella-and they certainly would not have been forced to marry one another had Daemon and his kin gained the throne.

But even Bloodraven would have no use in messing with fAegon.  What's the point now?  Winter is coming, the dragons are here...who sits the throne is going to become real irrelevant real fast.  And Bloodraven has done his job, as buck wild as the job has been over the course of 130 years.

 

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Reading the transcription of Arianne II, Winds, it occurs to me that Lysono Maar is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. The lilac eyes and the white gold hair are more common features in Lys, but still, those are Targaryen features.

The one thing that gives me pause is that he was not known to Jon Connington, who rode with Golden Company for five years. But that was what, 14 years ago? Assuming Lysono is under 30, he would have been still a boy when Jon was in the company.

Assuming Lysono is a Blackfyre helps to make sense of this statement coming from the effeminate spy master rather than one of his more martial comrades...

Quote

"Sack Meereen, aye, why not? I would have done the same in her place. The slaver cities reek of gold, and conquest requires coin."

Notice that Lysono argues most adamantly against retrieving Daenerys. In fact, after Franklyn Flowers endorsed Aegon's proposal to sail west instead, Lysono advised that the Volantenes would be eager to lend them ships to sail to Westeros. Then, when Harry Strickland reminded them that they wanted, even needed Daenerys's dragons, it was Lysono who said...

Quote

"The first Aegon took Westeros without eunuchs,” said Lysono Maar. “Why shouldn’t the sixth Aegon do the same?"

In Arianne II, Winds,

In Weeping Town, the storyteller takes time to tell us that the corpse of Daeron I remained there for some time after he was killed in Dorne. Is the author focusing our attention on a dead Targaryen for a reason? Rhaegar's heir was also killed, with his corpse displayed for the realm to see.

Arianne's party departs Weeping Town with the rising sun (a symbol of Dorne), through green (the color associated with Aegon's side against the the queen in the Dance of the Dragons) fields, and into the blackest (the color of the Blackfyre dragon) pitch under the canopy of the Rainwood at night. 

We are reminded of what Catelyn told Robb about House Mudd--that the line of Tristifer Mudd ended after his heir failed him. But of course, we meet a Mudd in the Golden Company. So, even though the line was supposedly exinguished, and John Mudd maybe a shoot from a lower branch on the tree, we see that old names thought to be extinguished (like Blackfyre) can resurface. 

Chains's proudest boast is that his great grandfather fought with Blackfyre and followed Bittersteel. Even though, he was bastard born in Essos three generations later, he was raised as a Westerosi, speaking the Common Tongue. 

Then Arianne meets Lysono Maar, and she notes that he speaks the Common Tongue very well, like Chains, no? 

As they talk about the beauty of Targaryen men, Lysono says he has only met one Targaryen man. Well, the Arianne and the casual reader would assume he is referring to Aegon. But didn't Daenerys tell us that Viserys feasted the captains of the Golden Company? And shouldn't we assume that Lysono was among those captains who laughed at them? If so, then Lysono met Aegon and Viserys, but he says he has only met one Targaryen man. 

Lysono claims Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia, but if Aegon is The Blackfyre, Lysono has to lie to effect the ruse, and something about Lysono makes Arianne's skin crawl. This is a signal that the Dornish princess is not so much offended by his effeminate appearance, but that we should mistrust what he says. 

And note that Lysono Maar, just "a sellsword late of the Free City of Lys," is offended by the term sellswords, asserting that the Golden Company is a "free brotherhood of exiles," still persistent even after several failures.

[Lord Varys]

@Lost Melnibonean

Lysono Maar is an unpleasant character. Not only Arianne does not like him but Jon Connington, too (although in his case this is part due to the fact that he reminds him of Rhaegar).

I don't see a connection between Maar not wanting to go to Meereen and supporting the idea of Aegon flying solo and him being a Blackfyre descendant. Harry Strickland's family was with the Golden Company and the Blackfyres from the very beginning, too, and he correctly points out that their pretender doesn't stand a good chance without the dragons and being accepted/acknowledged as Rhaegar's son by Daenerys.

Or do you think Strickland is less a Blackfyre loyalist than Lysono Maar, or that being a Targaryen descendant somehow means you are a Targaryen hater and don't want to have anything to do with them?

That's not very convincing.

My take on Lysono Maar is that the guy is exactly what he appears to be - a transvestite man of Lysene origin, either the scion of some Lysene noble line or (more likely) the product of the Lysene efforts to breed Valyrian-looking people from their many male and female prostitutes.

I'm inclined to believe that he is also one Varys/Illyrio's men in the Golden Company whose job it is to keep the Golden Company on track, to ensure that they make the right decisions fitting with the overall agenda of Varys and Illyrio. They cannot have it that Strickland and his colleagues (or Jon Connington) suddenly begin thinking for themselves.

You have to keep in mind that the original plan was to wait for Daenerys Targaryen at Volantis. Nobody ever wanted to go to Slaver's Bay the way Quentyn did. In light of Dany's decision to stay at Meereen (in spite of Selmy and Groleo most likely urging her to press on) and the current political situation in Westeros it is actually very likely that Varys/Illyrio also decided that it would be better at this point to invade with Aegon and Golden Company alone rather than to try to recruit Daenerys to their cause by going to Meereen. That way they would have lost the opportunity that presented itself in Westeros right now and they would have risked to get embroiled in a war in Meereen they could actually lose (or at least lose men and/or the opportunity to return to Westeros via ship). If they ended up being stuck in Slaver's Bay for years everything would be lost.

[Lord Asher Forrester]

On 25/03/2016 at 7:50 AM, Lord Varys said:

Doubting that Varys and Illyrio wanted Drogo to invade Westeros makes no sense. It is obvious in the books that this was the case. Not just in AGoT but also in ADwD.

So you're saying that Varys and Illyrio wanted Drogo do invade Westros along with Viserys and Dany, right?

But... why would they do that if they were Blackfyre supporters? Wouldn't they rather want the Targs to be far as fuck from Westros, or best, dead, especially if they wanted the golden company to be on their side?

Why they protected the Targs and tried to give them an army if they already had the (F)Aegon (Blackfyre) plot going on behind the courtains? It does makes sense for them trying an alligance with Dany in ADWD because at that time Dany is a widow with three dragons that could possibly marry their pretender, but in AGOT they were trying to delay the war between the lions and the wolves, to get the Targs ready to the reconquest so.. at that time Dany was going to be just a traditional Khaleesi in their plans, she would be off the game for sure being a female and married with a Dotrakhi "wildling", wich means they were trying to get fucking crazy shithead Viserys in the IT! WHY THE FUCK?

In resume, why would they want the Dotrakhi to be allied of the Targs and come to Westros if they're Blackfyre supporters?

I'm not even saying that i don't believe and/or want the Blackfyre theory to be true, all the hints point to it and i like the theory very much (by the way very good topic Lost), i'm just pointing a doubt that i have about it's logic, if someone could explain i would feel better, this whole Varys and Illyrio conspiracy thing is very mysterious to me, the more i think on it and read the forums the more confused i get.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lost Melnibonean

Lysono Maar is an unpleasant character. Not only Arianne does not like him but Jon Connington, too (although in his case this is part due to the fact that he reminds him of Rhaegar).

I don't see a connection between Maar not wanting to go to Meereen and supporting the idea of Aegon flying solo and him being a Blackfyre descendant. Harry Strickland's family was with the Golden Company and the Blackfyres from the very beginning, too, and he correctly points out that their pretender doesn't stand a good chance without the dragons and being accepted/acknowledged as Rhaegar's son by Daenerys.

Or do you think Strickland is less a Blackfyre loyalist than Lysono Maar, or that being a Targaryen descendant somehow means you are a Targaryen hater and don't want to have anything to do with them?

That's not very convincing.

My take on Lysono Maar is that the guy is exactly what he appears to be - a transvestite man of Lysene origin, either the scion of some Lysene noble line or (more likely) the product of the Lysene efforts to breed Valyrian-looking people from their many male and female prostitutes.

I'm inclined to believe that he is also one Varys/Illyrio's men in the Golden Company whose job it is to keep the Golden Company on track, to ensure that they make the right decisions fitting with the overall agenda of Varys and Illyrio. They cannot have it that Strickland and his colleagues (or Jon Connington) suddenly begin thinking for themselves.

You have to keep in mind that the original plan was to wait for Daenerys Targaryen at Volantis. Nobody ever wanted to go to Slaver's Bay the way Quentyn did. In light of Dany's decision to stay at Meereen (in spite of Selmy and Groleo most likely urging her to press on) and the current political situation in Westeros it is actually very likely that Varys/Illyrio also decided that it would be better at this point to invade with Aegon and Golden Company alone rather than to try to recruit Daenerys to their cause by going to Meereen. That way they would have lost the opportunity that presented itself in Westeros right now and they would have risked to get embroiled in a war in Meereen they could actually lose (or at least lose men and/or the opportunity to return to Westeros via ship). If they ended up being stuck in Slaver's Bay for years everything would be lost.

Then why was Lysono one of the first to support Aegon's plan? And you need to use spoiler tags when discussing Winds content. 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Then why was Lysono one of the first to support Aegon's plan? And you need to use spoiler tags when discussing Winds content. 

I think Varys and Illyrio also wanted Aegon to invade Westeros then and there when it became apparent that Dany was not coming to Volantis. In fact, had they been present they may have argued even more in favor of the 'invasion at once' idea because they would have had much better information on the political information in Westeros as Aegon and the Golden Company did at this point.

@Lord Asher Forrester

My take on Varys and Illyrio is that they first and foremost pragmatists. They have a certain goal but that is not necessarily 'the Blackfyre cause' as it was in Daemon's or Bittersteel's days. The very fact that they are essentially working towards a Targaryen restoration proves as much. And in that scenario they can work with and ally themselves with the Targaryens in exile just as they can work with known Targaryen loyalists like Jon Connington (or people who rediscovered their Targaryen loyalty with a little bit of help from them - like Barristan Selmy).

I'm pretty sure that Varys doesn't care on which side of the Targaryen tree (or the blanket) his own ancestors were born, and neither does Illyrio. For Varys the whole Aegon plan is just a way to get what he wants - a lasting peace in Westeros. He is not motivated by revenge or the idea to get even we with some people who are long dead.

If Varys and Illyrio were 'die-hard Blackfyre revanchists' they most likely would have killed Viserys III and Daenerys Stormborn as soon as they got their hands on them. But they did nothing of this sort. Instead they included them into their plan. Granted, they were pawns and not necessarily crucial ones at that, but there is no hint in the entire story that they actually wanted to kill them. In fact, we have it from Jorah's own mouth that Varys did not want to kill Dany, and we also know that he and Illyrio ensured that the poisoning attempt on Dany (which they themselves arranged and controlled) would fail.

[Lord Asher Forrester]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think Varys and Illyrio also wanted Aegon to invade Westeros then and there when it became apparent that Dany was not coming to Volantis. In fact, had they been present they may have argued even more in favor of the 'invasion at once' idea because they would have had much better information on the political information in Westeros as Aegon and the Golden Company did at this point.

@Lord Asher Forrester

My take on Varys and Illyrio is that they first and foremost pragmatists. They have a certain goal but that is not necessarily 'the Blackfyre cause' as it was in Daemon's or Bittersteel's days. The very fact that they are essentially working towards a Targaryen restoration proves as much. And in that scenario they can work with and ally themselves with the Targaryens in exile just as they can work with known Targaryen loyalists like Jon Connington (or people who rediscovered their Targaryen loyalty with a little bit of help from them - like Barristan Selmy).

I'm pretty sure that Varys doesn't care on which side of the Targaryen tree (or the blanket) his own ancestors were born, and neither does Illyrio. For Varys the whole Aegon plan is just a way to get what he wants - a lasting peace in Westeros. He is not motivated by revenge or the idea to get even we with some people who are long dead.

If Varys and Illyrio were 'die-hard Blackfyre revanchists' they most likely would have killed Viserys III and Daenerys Stormborn as soon as they got their hands on them. But they did nothing of this sort. Instead they included them into their plan. Granted, they were pawns and not necessarily crucial ones at that, but there is no hint in the entire story that they actually wanted to kill them. In fact, we have it from Jorah's own mouth that Varys did not want to kill Dany, and we also know that he and Illyrio ensured that the poisoning attempt on Dany (which they themselves arranged and controlled) would fail.

Ji there. Yeah i think you vision is one of the few that makes sense for what we know now, but are these two really that good lads? I don't think so...

If  they are not total Blackfyre revanchist's it's a little sad because if FAegon is indeed a Blackfyre it would be more cool if he had Illyrio and Varys as real Blackfyre supporters not just as manipulating backstage plotters, even if the second seems more likable due to the mummer's dragon thing and this pro-Targ old plot. However i thing they might even loose control of (F)Aegon, not matter if he is real Aegon or not and if they're loyal to him or just manipulators.