The Blackfyre

[Lady Blizzardborn]

So, Mance = Rhaegar, but it's a tight squeeze logistically for Illyrio and Serra to have fathered fAegon?

Yes. Absolutely. He wrote a book called "A Dance With Dragons," followed shortly by his writing a book about the first Dance of the Dragons, a book in which we got more detail about that historical event than any other in Westeros' history. It's not really hard to see the parallel - he named the fucking book A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, just sayin. The first Dance and the Blackfyre rebellions are the only Targ civil wars we know off, and in each, two people with Targaryen blood fought for the throne. To have a dragon dance, one must have two dragons. In our main story, we have two dragons claiming the throne, each with armies who are heading into conflict. This only works of fAegon has dragon blood. Making him a commoner from Lys just doesn't seem to fit the bill.

And besides - we have a whole pile of foreshadowing that he is a Blackfyre, just as LM has documented here. It makes thematic sense, it makes narrative sense, it's been foreshadowed heavily in multiple ways.... I don't think it can be easily dismissed.

While I agree that he has dragon blood, I do not consider it a foregone conclusion that he is a Blackfyre. We need a Blackfyre but it doesn't have to be Aegon.

We have foreshadowing for "a" Blackfyre. None of it directly points to Aegon, who you must admit could be a very effective smokescreen.

[LmL]

I didn't say it wouldn't be a big deal, just that the Blackfyre involved does not have to be Aegon. He could be the red herring and the true Blackfyre could be hidden. Dany might even need his help to take out the final BF pretender (and two against one gives pretty good odds that the red dragons will win).

Yes, the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of the Dragons should be the same thing. But Aegon is nowhere near the dragons. Is there any reason to suspect that Dany will just give him one to level the playing field? Not much of a dance if only one side has dragons. And the argument that the "dragons" who are dancing are just Targaryens doesn't wash when we have actual dragons in play too.

"Doesn't have to be" - ok, nothing has to be anything... but saying so is meaningless.

If not fAegon, then who? Are you expecting ANOTHER secret Blackfyre to show up in book 6? That seems odd. There is a ton of foreshadowing that fAegon is Blackfyre - are you suggesting there is another character in ASOAIF who shows Blackfyre symbolism or foreshadowing? I haven't heard of such a theory.

Usually, red herrings are resented right away, at the beginning, as a smoke screen for something to follow. Thus it's hard to see fAegon, who some feel came in too late as it is, as a red herring, since he wasn't even around to distract us from anything until book 5.

ETA: totally disagree, the foreshadowing applies specifically to fAegon in many cases. As LM has documented.

[LmL]

Neither Jon nor Tyrion is in a position to have a Dance (war) with Dany any time soon. Remember, A Dance With Dragons was the title of the fifth book. The two dragons must be beginning to dance in that book. He didn't name the book for some conflict between Jon and Dany which is nowhere in sight and was not set into motion in that book. However, fAegon and Dany are beginning a dance - they are making the moves to set in motion a war of conflict between them. Tyrion provoked it - "Dragons bright and dark, and you in the middle of it."

I can't see what other dance ADWD could possibly be referring to.

[In A Coat of Gold]

The worst argument anyone can ever make on the forum is "that's just world building," followed by some sort of dismissal of an idea. Firstly, there is no way that anyone can prove something doesn't have a second, hidden meaning. Second, you can't prove a negative. Third, nobody knows where George is hiding clues or not.

It was exactly world building. There is nothing that links Blackfyre to Aegon but the Golden Company. The same Golden Company that have been participating in non-Blackfyre conflicts for decades. There is no Blackfyres in the GC. Hell, there are few enough Westerosi in the GC,

Lastly, and this is the big one, it reflects a lack of understanding about how George uses wordlbuilding to foreshadow future events. Lost Melnibonean made this point very well - time is a wheel (George even told us this and gave examples of how this principle works), and all things repeat in ASOIAF. The wordlbuilding hides not only factual clues about people's history, which is important context for the main story, it also contains patterns and roles which are replayed in the main story. You can't understand Rhaegar without understanding the story of Bael the Bard. George has made it abundantly clear (title of book 5, hello) that the Dance of the Dragons is going to replay itself in some way.

We can understand Rhaegar well enough, since the Bael the Bard story has more to do with Mance(although I'm convinced they are the same person).

Lost Melnibonean's analysis throughout this piece is entirely consistent with the way that George has used wordlbuilding and foreshadowing. Your casual dismissal of multiple pieces of evidence with a "that's just wordlbuilding" just doesn't hold any water.

Where are the links between Aegon and the Blackfyre rebellions that do not include the GC? Where. Name them.

Your argument that the Golden Company appears to be just sell swords is terrible. "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel." "Some contracts are written in blood." Everything we know about them says they are NOT just a sell sword company. And to settle it, they decide to fight with Aegon NOT BASED ON MONEY. The argument that they are just a sell sword company is easily dismissed.

If they aren't just another sellsword company, why are they doing the same thing other sellswords do? Why fight in the disputed lands? Why take contracts from the free cities? Why do they have so many non-Westerosi? Why elect Harry Strickland, a guy who clearly doesn't want to go home, as the leader? Why would they be willing to back Viserys and then Dany? Why would Stannis believe he could hire them?

Aegon and Dany are a way to get home. Written in blood? How about the blood of their ancestors and the lands they lost. Castles are worth more than gold.

If you're going to run around loudly proclaiming in no uncertain terms that "Mance = Rhaegar," one of the worst and most impossible theories in existence, then you probably shouldn't be so quick to dismiss well researched claims by others with your own very shoddy analysis. Just my opinion.

There is more textual evidence than Mance is Rhaegar than Aegon is a Blackfyre, and I'll challenge any one on that.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Neither Jon nor Tyrion is in a position to have a Dance (war) with Dany any time soon. Remember, A Dance With Dragons was the title of the fifth book. The two dragons must be beginning to dance in that book. He didn't name the book for some conflict between Jon and Dany which is nowhere in sight and was not set into motion in that book. However, fAegon and Dany are beginning a dance - they are making the moves to set in motion a war of conflict between them. Tyrion provoked it - "Dragons bright and dark, and you in the middle of it."

I can't see what other dance ADWD could possibly be referring to.

Dany and Aegon haven't even met, and are further apart than they've ever been lol.

[LmL]

The OP presents many connections between fAegon and the Blackfyres that have nothing to do with the GC. If you're going to read the OP, containing these examples, and then demand examples of connections between fAegon and the Blackfyres, you don't really have any credibility, or you just didn't read it very carefully.

Mance = Rhaegar has been throughly debunked from many angles. Again, your unswerving faith in this debunked theory which has massive logistical holes destroys your credibility and renders your opinion about logistics totally invalid.

Your insistence that the GC is just another sell sword company is directly contradicted by the fact they decided to follow fAegon to invade Westeros. Yes, they've been a normal sell sword company is company since then (although they are the best and have never broken a contract), but suddenly they break a contract (unprecedented) and follow fAegon for reason NOT having to do with gold. Many will surely die. It's a risky move. Theres more at work than a common sell sword army. They make this very point while discussing their options - they can sit around taking money for doing basically nothing, or follow fAegon to Westeros, which is difficult and risky.

Again, when you call something "wordlbuilding," what do you mean by that? You seem to imply that if something is wordlbuilding, it's just basically meaningless descriptions of the drapes or something there to enhance the color of a scene. Please correct me if I am wrong, but you seem to be using "wordlbuilding" as a dismissal of something ending important. If this is so, I would say you understand very little about wordlbuilding, specifically in ASOAIF.

[Knight and Dayne]

The GC sure participates in a lot of non-Westerosi conflicts with a sterling reputation. It's almost as if they have a different agenda on different continents...

[LmL]

As for Dany and fAegon, try to think a little harder about that one. Again, your analysis is almost not even worth the time to respond to, it's so shallow ("they aren't even close to each other!" - really? That's what you call analysis?)

I'll try to spell this out for you very simply. Dany has been trying to gather an army to invade Westeros, since book two. That's pretty much the biggest Chekov's gun around - Dany invading Westeros. But look, we have ANOTHER potential Targaryen blooded person (a "dragon") now invading Westeros, getting the jump on her. They are set up for a civil war. No other dragon person is set to to dance (war) with Dany. The events which set them against each other primarily took place in the book called "A Dance With Dragons." And again, Tyrion is symbolically in the midst of dragons bright and dark, just as he is in the real life events of ADWD, pitting the bright and dark dragons against each other.

If you can't understand that... I'd be curious to see what you think the Dance of the Dragons refers to.

[Lord Freypie]

For me the dance in "A Dance with Dragons" is related to nuptial dances, as several potential suitors travel to Mereen in hope to seduce / marry / ally with Daenerys and get the support of her dragons. It's a bad arguement to use this title as proof of anything imo, it's not "The Dance of Dragons" (and by the way the Dance of Dragons is not related to Blackfyres rebellions).

That said there are far enough other clues to take the Aegon is a Blackfyre theory very seriously.

[LmL]

The phrase "Dance of the Dragons" refers specifically to a civil war between Targaryen-blooded claimants for the Iron throne. That's the primary thing it refers to. It's the name of the Targ civil war.

Hence, naming a book "A Dance With Dragons" in which you set up two Targ-blooded claimants to have a civil war over the throne is well.... pretty "on the nose." You can draw additional layers of meaning from it, like the idea that when two dragons fight, once in a while it looks like a dance. I can see you idea about suitors for Dany in this light, as a secondary layer of meaning - I like that, actually. But primarily, it is the name of a Targ civil war.

[Lord Freypie]

The only thing lacking is "the set up to have a civil war between them over the throne", to resume.

As far I know, Aegon still plan to ally Daenerys, and Daenerys has no reason to be hostile to her "nephew" by the end of ADWD.

The set up may be the theory that Quentyn death will make Dorne hostile to Dany coupled with expectations that Arianne will chose to support Aegon. It's readers expectations (which may be influenced by red herrings as much as "Cersei killed Jon Arryn/ordered Bran's murder" and "Robb's Will named Jon and he'll be crowned").

On the other hand, if "Dance of the Dragons" refer to a war between two sides using dragons, there may be another candidate than Aegon to oppose Daenerys in Euron or Victarion.

And if "Dance of the Dragons" refer to any war where dragons dance in the sky, it's just forced to happen at some point.

Finally remember Tyrion dream about a battle where he fights alongside Barristan and the Golden Company (Dany and Aegon suppporters on the same side so) against the Lannisters, it may well mean they'll be allied at least until the actual powers of Westeros are defeated.

(playing the devil advocate here, I rather believe Aegon is a Blackfyre and some conflict between him and Daenerys will happen, I'm just noting it doesn't make it closer to be proven)

[Lost Melnibonean]

Even so, how plausible is it that they could find a scion of an extinguished line who is the same age and same coloring as Rhaegar's son? Of course, the story is as plausible as George wants it to be, but man that is extremely unlikely.

The chances of him being an absolute fake with zero Targ ancestry is a lot higher. it's not constrained by the blood relation bottleneck and is much easier to accomplish, but even still, why would Illyrio send them to Dany with her dragons if this boy wasn't real?

Why do you say Aegon is the same age as Rhaegar's son? Is is because the Appendix to Dance says Young Griff is 18? That's not even worth half a groat. The Appendix also says Rhaegar's son was killed in the Sack of King's Landing. So if the latter is false, how can you put any stock in the former? Tyrion put his age at 15 or 16 "or near enough to make no matter," so Aegon is likelyyounger than 18. I suppose you put stock into Tyrion saying Jon was 12, when Jon was 14? I don't. First, The George may have been setting the reader up for this future scene. Second, Tyrion was guessing his age. Consider the context. Tyrion wasn't guessing; he was trying to take Jon down a peg. He succeeded too, and then felt bad for it. They ended up being friends. Third, if you disagree and think Tyrion was guessing, he should get a pass here since his nephew Joffrey, who was 12, was taller than Jon, and he no doubt saw Robb and Jon as peers (not socially of course, but agewise). And finally, he may have known how old Robb was and assumed that Jon was his younger brother.

[Slowpoke Martin]

Unless something drastic happens in WINDS, Dany will probably make it to Westeros by the time Aegon is king. Aegon is already in Westeros conquering the Stormlands and making allies, while Dany is somewhere in the Dothraki Sea.

Aegon

-has a superior army, the best army money can buy.

-already in Westeros, conquering castles

-possible allies in Dorne/The Reach

-backed by Varys & Illyrio (2 incredibly powerful & cunning master players)

You can be negative towards Aegon all you want, but the kid is doing more than just talking out of his ass like Dany does.

Assuming the Dance is between Aegon and Dany, Dany is already on the back foot by the progress Aegon already has made.

[LmL]

^^^ good points. At this point, the odds of Dany coming to Westeros and working out some kind of throne-sharing with fAegon are slim to none. All of Tyrions thoughts about this confirm this idea. All of his arguments to fAegon about invading Westeros were meant as a trick, as bad advice. That's clear from his inner monologue. There's also the scenes with Tyrion seeing Benerro at the red temple, where he thinks that if Jon Con and fAegon think to use the red priests and Dany to ally with fAegon, they will be sorely disappointed.

There is every indication Dany and fAegon aren't going to get along when they finally meet. FAegon will likely be sitting the iron throne by them, and everything we've seen from him says he isn't going to step down off of it. There's only one iron throne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I didn't say it wouldn't be a big deal, just that the Blackfyre involved does not have to be Aegon. He could be the red herring and the true Blackfyre could be hidden. Dany might even need his help to take out the final BF pretender (and two against one gives pretty good odds that the red dragons will win).

If not Aegon, then who is the Blackfyre?

Yes, the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of the Dragons should be the same thing. But Aegon is nowhere near the dragons. Is there any reason to suspect that Dany will just give him one to level the playing field? Not much of a dance if only one side has dragons. And the argument that the "dragons" who are dancing are just Targaryens doesn't wash when we have actual dragons in play too.

I agree that the dragons with wings will be dancing too. Yes, I expect Aegon to end up with Rhaegal; although he might take it from Victarion or Euron, not Daenerys. In any event I expext Daenerys and Aegon to be allies to start...

The dragon has three heads. There are two men in the world who I can trust, if I can find them. I will not be alone then. We will be three again the world, like Aegon and his sisters.

This would set up Aegon to be one of her three betrayers. I'm thinking for love.

Oh, and Aegon might not be near the dragons now. But he will be.

[Howling Mad]

But given all the black and red contrasts through out the books, doesn't the Blackfyre vs. Targaryen struggle have to be a big deal? And given that The George is already two books into the second act, doesn't the Blackfyre challenge and the Dance of Dragons have to be the same thing?

The who is who may not play out as we predict. Nonetheless GRRM has clearly foreshadowed a role for the Blackfyre claimants in the remaining books.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Unless something drastic happens in WINDS, Dany will probably make it to Westeros by the time Aegon is king. Aegon is already in Westeros conquering the Stormlands and making allies, while Dany is somewhere in the Dothraki Sea.

Aegon

-has a superior army, the best army money can buy.

-already in Westeros, conquering castles

-possible allies in Dorne/The Reach

-backed by Varys & Illyrio (2 incredibly powerful & cunning master players)

You can be negative towards Aegon all you want, but the kid is doing more than just talking out of his ass like Dany does.

Assuming the Dance is between Aegon and Dany, Dany is already on the back foot by the progress Aegon already has made.

Do I understand you correctly? Are you saying that my argument that he is a Blackfyre is negative toward him?

[LmL]

There's another very strong indication the the Dance is replaying, with fAegon and Dany as the heads, in one of the TWOW advance chapters, the one with Arianne.

On the way to meet fAegon, Arianne and company stop at the castle of House Toland (the family with the dragons eating its tail / time is a wheel sigil!!) and the daughter talks about dreaming of dragons. The dragons were dancing, and everywhere they danced the people died. This while Arianne is thinking about fAegon, going to meet fAegon, etc, as well as her own claim to the throne of Dorne and the possibility of warring against her brother. It's pretty damn clear as clues go. Like, really damn clear. Almost heavy handed.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

"Doesn't have to be" - ok, nothing has to be anything... but saying so is meaningless.

If not fAegon, then who? Are you expecting ANOTHER secret Blackfyre to show up in book 6? That seems odd. There is a ton of foreshadowing that fAegon is Blackfyre - are you suggesting there is another character in ASOAIF who shows Blackfyre symbolism or foreshadowing? I haven't heard of such a theory.

Usually, red herrings are resented right away, at the beginning, as a smoke screen for something to follow. Thus it's hard to see fAegon, who some feel came in too late as it is, as a red herring, since he wasn't even around to distract us from anything until book 5.

ETA: totally disagree, the foreshadowing applies specifically to fAegon in many cases. As LM has documented.

Watch for my posts. I'll be covering that, and it would NOT be someone who hasn't shown up yet, just someone who the majority of readers have not suspected. In fact, I suspect that it would be a character who has been around for much longer than Aegon.

Aegon came in late? He was foreshadowed in book one. How do so many people miss that "face smashed beyond recognition" = character is not necessarily dead?

The only thing that directly applies to Aegon (other than the head-smashed infant) is the "mummer's dragon." But that is not tied directly to the Blackfyre foreshadowing. And the "mummer's dragon" could easily be Varys' dragon. Varys is a mummer. If Aegon is under Varys' ultimate control, then who is really the king? It makes Aegon a puppet, no true king, and thus a lie to be slain.

I fully admit that there's an excellent chance Aegon is a Blackfyre. I just do not see why so many people are unable or unwilling to see that there is just as much chance that he is exactly who he thinks he is, and how that could serve the plot.

[Pain killer Jane]

Wonderful expose OP. Fantastic logic and examination of the books and other materials.