The Blackfyre

[Jak Scaletongue]

Im holding out hope for Old Nan too. :)

What you're saying is all true - we can't be sure of anything. I take that as an understood caveat. But after we've said that.... what now? We're back to trying to solve the puzzles. If you're just making the case to remember that we could be wrong, I'm fine with that. True enough. Some people like to make themselves truly miserable, however, by thinking they can refute everyone's theory because there isn't a photo. Have you read any of the anti-RLJ threads? Thousands and thousands of words, and nobody has come up with an alternative to RLJ that fits the clues, fits the narrative, and it's not disproven by other evidence. RLJ has been out for 15 years, and the people most dedicated to discrediting it cannot come up with an alternative. If you ask for one, they will rustle and say they do t need an alternate to question RLJ. I call that meaningless hot air. If RLJ is wrong, there would be another possibility with decent support that is not contradicted by evidence. There is none. Ergo, I'm moving on with that as solved, with the caveat in mind that perhaps there is some brilliantly subtle thing which we've all missed to throw a wrench in it. I highly, highly doubt it, but without a Rhagar Lyanna sextape, there is no definitive proof. I'm ok with that, this is art, not forensics.

I agree with most of this - at the beginning of this whole discussion I was simply objecting to the tone (that I heard in my head) when...Suzanna, I think...was saying that (paraphrasing) people were stupid for being wrong about RLJ. It's getting to the point where I can't remember who I'm arguing with!! :) Not a bad thing, I like arguing...I'll argue with anyone who wants to argue :)! It wasn't so much an objection to *what* she was saying just *how* she said it. It seemed very condescending and I was trying to make a point that it's rude and unnecessary to be condescending to people who don't agree. I, personally, find it kind of refreshing when people don't agree with my wholeheartedly - gives us something to talk about! Or argue, but same sh*t different pile :)

I spend a lot of my days correcting a 6 y.o's manners - I'm currently a bit touchy about *everyone* using their manners! And everyone should! I'm going to change my signature to Manners Matter!

Good talking with you LmL - but I better do the work they're currently paying me to do...I'll be back :ph34r:

[In A Coat of Gold]

Thanks for the kind words, Jak. :cheers:

I just can't take seriously someone who says "well, we already heard the AA story once, so why would anything else have anything to do with AA?" Sorry, hate to rude, but that's just a stupid thing to say. So, that one version of the AA story is definitely 100% true and complete? There's nothing else we might need to know about it? We should definitely just take her word that this guy who stabbed his wife with a sword in a blood magic ritual is definitely the hero we are all waiting for. Right.

NO, of course there's more than meets the eye to the single most important character in ASOAIF history. Since when is one side of a story the whole story in ASOIAF? We should be looking for any clues about Azor Ahai and his true nature, that of Lightbringer, etc. Anytime we hear a magic sword story, we should be looking for Azor Ahai clues.

That story has nothing to do with Dick Crabb or Crackclaw Point. He doesn't even know it.

This is purely a side story and filler world building from George. That's the entire purpose of the trip..Well that and to lead Brienne to the Riverlands and Stoneheart.

[LmL]

That story has nothing to do with Dick Crabb or Crackclaw Point. He doesn't even know it.

This is purely a side story and filler world building from George. That's the entire purpose of the trip..Well that and to lead Brienne to the Riverlands and Stoneheart.

^^^ more BS assertions. Who are you to know that something is just worldbuilding? You cannot know that.

Your comments don't even make sense at this point. What does Dick knowing the story about Galladon have to do with anything? Are you unaware that George may hide hints about other plotlines inside a person's chapter? Because yes, that's a thing.

[Jak Scaletongue]

This post should be a sticky.

(Now when people discuss about consequences of this or that theory being true, they can't always add all the "I think", "it seems", etc... that every theory would desserve.

And they may also be tired arguing again about some points. )

Thanks for the vote of confidence :cheers:

It would be kind of difficult to amend *every* sentence (not to mention, sound odd), but tossing it in there randomly certainly won't hurt! And yeah, someone writes an OP with plenty of "thinks" and "maybes" but answers all the comments without - fair enough, you've already stated it's all "maybe." And I've seen a lot of people get pissy in the comments about that too!

There's no easy answer - but it can't hurt to point it out once in a while :)

[Buried Treasure]

Tyrion says Jon Snow is 12 in 298. Is that the most specific age for him? Especially considering Tyrion doesn't even know the boy and has no experience raising children anyway.

I think the most damning argument against Tyrion's initial estimate of Aegon's age is that Tyrion himself later contradicts it. After he has been with the boy a while he concludes that he is either 18-year old Aegon Targaryen, or a reasonable fake.

I am in the camp that this Aegon is not Aegon, and was procured as a slave baby, possibly a mother-son pair to help ensure the right look (Serra?). What I am damn certain about though, is that Varys and Illyrio are competent, they handed over 'Aegon' to Jon C as a supposed-to-be-6-year old, so for damn certain they wouldn't have used a 4 year old imposter.

[Jak Scaletongue]

Thanks for the kind words, Jak. :cheers:

I just can't take seriously someone who says "well, we already heard the AA story once, so why would anything else have anything to do with AA?" Sorry, hate to rude, but that's just a stupid thing to say. So, that one version of the AA story is definitely 100% true and complete? There's nothing else we might need to know about it? We should definitely just take her word that this guy who stabbed his wife with a sword in a blood magic ritual is definitely the hero we are all waiting for. Right.

NO, of course there's more than meets the eye to the single most important character in ASOAIF history. Since when is one side of a story the whole story in ASOIAF? We should be looking for any clues about Azor Ahai and his true nature, that of Lightbringer, etc. Anytime we hear a magic sword story, we should be looking for Azor Ahai clues.

Well, you know, there's only ONE accepted version of King Arthur, and ONE accepted version of Robin Hood. None of those others version have anything to do with the *real* story, you know. ;)

I'm with ya, LmL - there's never ONE single version of a tale. NEVER. Do some research into folklore - even modern stories fit into the "tropes" that have been used in storytelling since time immemorial.

The Squishers are only mentioned by Nimble Dick and no one else. It is pure world building.

It's no different than real-life "mermaids" - they're "mermaids/mermen" in England, "selkies" in Scotland, "sirens" in Greece but they're all the same idea - creatures from under the sea who come onto land and try to lure men to their deaths. There's picky differences between them, but differences no greater than the differences between a Poodle and a Great Dane. Same thing, different type.

Squishers are selkies and merlings. Different names for the same thing. And all 3 are probably our "dead things in the water" - or at least, killing the things so that they are dead...

[Jak Scaletongue]

I think the most damning argument against Tyrion's initial estimate of Aegon's age is that Tyrion himself later contradicts it. After he has been with the boy a while he concludes that he is either 18-year old Aegon Targaryen, or a reasonable fake.

I am in the camp that this Aegon is not Aegon, and was procured as a slave baby, possibly a mother-son pair to help ensure the right look (Serra?). What I am damn certain about though, is that Varys and Illyrio are competent, they handed over 'Aegon' to Jon C as a supposed-to-be-6-year old, so for damn certain they wouldn't have used a 4 year old imposter.

Yeah, there's not a big difference between a 16 year old and an 18 year old but there is a HUGE difference between a 4 year old and a 6 year old. Even someone who hasn't spent a lot of time with children can tell the difference between 4 & 6 (speech, coordination, understanding, etc.).

[Lost Melnibonean]

Im holding out hope for Old Nan too. :)

What you're saying is all true - we can't be sure of anything. I take that as an understood caveat. But after we've said that.... what now? We're back to trying to solve the puzzles. If you're just making the case to remember that we could be wrong, I'm fine with that. True enough. Some people like to make themselves truly miserable, however, by thinking they can refute everyone's theory because there isn't a photo. Have you read any of the anti-RLJ threads? Thousands and thousands of words, and nobody has come up with an alternative to RLJ that fits the clues, fits the narrative, and it's not disproven by other evidence. RLJ has been out for 15 years, and the people most dedicated to discrediting it cannot come up with an alternative. If you ask for one, they will rustle and say they do t need an alternate to question RLJ. I call that meaningless hot air. If RLJ is wrong, there would be another possibility with decent support that is not contradicted by evidence. There is none. Ergo, I'm moving on with that as solved, with the caveat in mind that perhaps there is some brilliantly subtle thing which we've all missed to throw a wrench in it. I highly, highly doubt it, but without a Rhagar Lyanna sextape, there is no definitive proof. I'm ok with that, this is art, not forensics.

Old Nan is awesome. She's right up there with Jory.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Literally, George is telling you the boy is 18. He rarely even gave ages in this appendix.

I'll continue to play this game with you.

He's not younger than 18 because George RR Martin says so. He is 18, per the appendix.

Yo your second point, Tyrion was guessing Aegon and Jon's age. That's not even a point.

Take him down a peg? Read the damn book, man. He asks Jon his age as a comparison to their sizes. He insults Jon later when he talks about the Night's Watch. It's such a splitting of hairs on your part that it's ridiculous.

Oh well... Have a nice day! :)

[Jak Scaletongue]

Old Nan is awesome. She's right up there with Jory.

But there's no hope for Jory :bawl:

[LmL]

He did go out like a boss though. RIP Jory.

Ned galloped to him, bringing his longsword down on Tregars helm. The jolt of impact made him grit his teeth. Tregar stumbled to his knees, his lion crest sheared in half, blood running down his face. Heward was hacking at the hands that had seized his bridle when a spear caught him in the belly. Suddenly Jory was back among them, a red rain flying from his sword.

"Red Rain" is the name of a Valyrian steel sword. Jory is literally kicking so much ass here that his actions can only be described with the name of an invincible sword forged in dragon fire.

Like a boss.

[Drekinn]

But there's no hope for Jory :bawl:

No hope for Old Nan either. She's imprisoned in the Dreadfort!

[Jak Scaletongue]

No hope for Old Nan either. She's imprisoned in the Dreadfort!

But she's not dead yet! (and a couple decades older than Ramsay's "type" I think...not that Ramsay is at the Dreadfort anymore)

[Lady Blizzardborn]

No hope for Old Nan either. She's imprisoned in the Dreadfort!

She must live to finish the tale of Night's King! Or tell Beth Cassel the story so that she can finish it for us.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I was looking for support for an argument concerning the Fat Man's plan, when I stumbled across this (like finding dragon eggs in the Dothraki Sea)...

You get more sellswords on the eastern side of the narrow sea than you do in Westeros. The Free Cities have made heavy use of mercenaries for centuries, to fight their endless wars in the Stepstones and the Disputed Lands. Over there many of the mercenary soldiers are organized into long-established sellsword companies, or free companies -- the Brave Companions are an example of such, though an especially unsavory one. You'll meet two more sellsword companies in A STORM OF SWORDS, the Stormcrows and the Second Sons. And there are others. The Golden Company is the largest and most famous, founded by one of Aegon the Unworthy's bastards. You won't meet them until A DANCE WITH DRAGONS.

SSM, Mercenaries, 05/13/2000 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Mercenaries/)

Notice the date here... This was before Storm was published. The George had already worked out that Bittersteel had founded the Golden Company even though we had no idea who Bittersteel was, and we had never heard of the Golden Company. The George added this about a year later...

Some of the sellsword companies are very disciplined, and some are nothing but rabble joined together in search of loot. At one end there would be the Golden Company, at the other the Brave Companions. The Second Sons and the Stormcrows are in the middle.

SSM, Military Questions, 06/21/2001 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1174/)

But this is what really piqued my interest...

Bittersteel was asked about by [a fan during Q&A]. He went over a lot of stuff already covered in the SSM then said that the Golden Company wants or wanted to overthrow the reigning lineage of Targs as they consider them usurpers.

SSM, LA Con IV, 08/25/2006 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2006/08)

The Golden Company is not fighting to install a Targaryen on the throne. They know who Aegon is. They wanted to use Daenerys's dragons, but they are seeking to crown Aegon, who they believe is the Blackfyre.

[Greg B]

First, really great scholarship. Props, Lord Melnibonean. For my part, it reads like a terrific reconstruction of the creative process of an avowed "pantser" who develops his story organically in the writing of it. I for one have never had a problem with this, and it was clear to me even before the original synopsis came out and confirmed it. It seems very likely to me that Martin began building the Blackfyre history for the Dunk & Egg stories, and that history has become more important to aSoIaF as he's gone along -- really taking off when he's working on Storm and The Sworn Sword.

Is your take that the Golden Company (at least the leadership) actually knows Aegon is a Blackfyre? Or are Varys and Illyrio conning them too (at least for now)?

ETA: I see you say above that this is what you believe. So when JC does the reveal of "Aegon," and he thinks "they already knew," he's thinking they "already knew" not what he just told them but the secret he didn't tell them? Not sure I get that, but I may be misremembering the passage.

ETA2: But in another thread, you say:

Now, obviously the Blackfyre theory only works if Jon Connington is being fooled (at least partially) by Varys and the fat man, but I think the George was goving us a clue there. And notice what directly follows that clue...

So I guess I'm confused.

For my part, if anything feels "tacked on" or "out of left field," it's not the Blackfyre elements -- it's that "Aegon" was Varys' and Illyrio's "plan all along." And I'm even okay with that, as long as there aren't gaping holes created by their words and actions beginning with Game. Either way, that's the case regardless of who "Aegon" really is.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I was looking for support for an argument concerning the Fat Man's plan, when I stumbled across this (like finding dragon eggs in the Dothraki Sea)...

SSM, Mercenaries, 05/13/2000 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Mercenaries/)

Notice the date here... This was before Storm was published. The George had already worked out that Bittersteel had founded the Golden Company even though we had no idea who Bittersteel was, and we had never heard of the Golden Company. The George added this about a year later...

SSM, Military Questions, 06/21/2001 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1174/)

But this is what really piqued my interest...

SSM, LA Con IV, 08/25/2006 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2006/08)

The Golden Company is not fighting to install a Targaryen on the throne. They know who Aegon is. They wanted to use Daenerys's dragons, but they are seeking to crown Aegon, who they believe is the Blackfyre.

Cool! Thanx for sharing :)

[In A Coat of Gold]

But this is what really piqued my interest...

SSM, LA Con IV, 08/25/2006 (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2006/08)

The Golden Company is not fighting to install a Targaryen on the throne. They know who Aegon is. They wanted to use Daenerys's dragons, but they are seeking to crown Aegon, who they believe is the Blackfyre.

Key phrase "wants or wanted to" implying that their mission is not assuredly the same, and their attitudes play that out. Firstly, being willing to support Viserys. Secondly, there are few enough men from Westeros even in their ranks. Thirdly and most importantly, Harry Strickland, who doesn't even want to go through with the invasion.

[Lost Melnibonean]

First, really great scholarship. Props, Lord Melnibonean. For my part, it reads like a terrific reconstruction of the creative process of an avowed "pantser" who develops his story organically in the writing of it. I for one have never had a problem with this, and it was clear to me even before the original synopsis came out and confirmed it. It seems very likely to me that Martin began building the Blackfyre history for the Dunk & Egg stories, and that history has become more important to aSoIaF as he's gone along -- really taking off when he's working on Storm and The Sworn Sword.

Is your take that the Golden Company (at least the leadership) actually knows Aegon is a Blackfyre? Or are Varys and Illyrio conning them too (at least for now)?

ETA: I see you say above that this is what you believe. So when JC does the reveal of "Aegon," and he thinks "they already knew," he's thinking they "already knew" not what he just told them but the secret he didn't tell them? Not sure I get that, but I may be misremembering the passage.

ETA2: But in another thread, you say:

So I guess I'm confused.

For my part, if anything feels "tacked on" or "out of left field," it's not the Blackfyre elements -- it's that "Aegon" was Varys' and Illyrio's "plan all along." And I'm even okay with that, as long as there aren't gaping holes created by their words and actions beginning with Game. Either way, that's the case regardless of who "Aegon" really is.

Jon Connington is an unwitting stooge. First for Myles Toyne and Varys, and now for Varys and the Fat Man. While he suspects, and maybe knows deep down, that Aegon might not be Rhaegar's son, he's too concerned with his own honor (pride), so he's fooling himself.

Illyrio and Myles, on the other hand are like Daemon Blackfyre and Aegor Rivers. Illyrio is Daemon's heir, and Myles has succeeded Aegor as commander of the Golden Company, founded to place the Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. That contract writ in blood was Myles agreeing to put Illyrio's son on the Iron Throne.

Harry Strickland is "Gold for four generations." He told his high officers why they broke their contract with Myr, and the men then swore their swords to Aegon without any promise of gold. They know.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

^^^ Yup exactly!